Near the end of October, PVC market trend has not been changed, mainly slightly loose. Shandong Xinfa, Henan Lianchuang, Taishan salt chemical and other PVC enterprises maintained well without strong support. Affected by the continuous exploration of futures, prices in South China, East China, North China and other major sales regions have been reduced to varying degrees, but the range of price reduction is not large. The main purpose of the traders is to deliver goods, so as to facilitate the transaction. The downstream receiving is general, and the receiving is acceptable in some areas, most of which are transacted with small orders, and the low price accounts for more. As of October 22, the main stream of calcium carbide 5-type material in East China market is about 6550-6630 yuan / ton, and the main stream of ethylene material is about 7050-7350 yuan / ton; the main stream of calcium carbide 5-type material in North China market is about 6500-6680 yuan / ton, and the main stream of ethylene material is about 6920-7070 yuan / ton; the main stream of calcium carbide 5-type material in South China market is about 6640-6800 yuan / ton, and the main stream of ethylene material is about 7130-7300 yuan / ton. Then, what will happen to PVC? Let’s analyze:

From the perspective of futures, as of October 22, Dalian pvc2001 contract opened in low volatility, opening 6320, high 6365, low 6315, closing 6320, down 5, down 0.08%. Trading volume was 119950, with positions reduced by 2838 to 324002. Technically, KDJ index is dead fork, MACD index green column is slightly shortened, and air force is still dominant. On the trend, the waterfall line is spread in a short position, and the brin passage is still in a weak area, so the trend is still weak. PVC futures are expected to maintain low volatility in the short term. Pay attention to 6400 line pressure at the top and 6250 line support at the bottom. In operation, it is recommended to operate in 6250-6400.

Favorable factors: the overall supply of some enterprises is relatively reduced due to maintenance; the social inventory continues to decline, and the inventory of some enterprises is relatively low, which is good to some extent; the price of raw calcium carbide remains stable after a small drop, and the cost still has some support.

Negative factors: the mentality of the market merchants is short, and the transaction gives way to the profit; the downstream receiving basically maintains small orders, and the low price transaction is too much, some of them still remain wait-and-see attitude; the futures trend is still weak, which has certain pressure on the price.

On the whole, plastic rice city that the recent PVC market multi-dimensional consolidation trend, small loose still exist. In addition, in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the influence of macro aspect, futures trend, national policy and downstream receiving.

Since the middle of September, the price of polypropylene has fluctuated downward. On the one hand, it is affected by the crude oil price, and on the other hand, it is due to the flat demand performance. Looking forward to the future, the cost support from the crude oil end will weaken, and the supply pressure will gradually release, but the inventory will move down, the demand is difficult to have a bright spot, and the PP price may continue to be weak.

Increasing supply pressure

Recently, new polypropylene units have been put into production intensively, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. Not only did Baofeng phase II start up smoothly, Dongguan juzhengyuan get through the whole process, but also Daqing Refining and chemical, Dushanzi petrochemical, Shenhua Xinjiang and other units that were overhauled in the early stage started up in succession. At present, the operating rate of polypropylene enterprises is about 97%, which is at a high level, and the supply materials will be abundant.

Spot price down

In terms of inventory, polypropylene inventory has declined since October 9, and as of October 18, it dropped to 403300 tons, reducing inventory pressure. On October 18, the factory price of petrochemical wire drawing grade was partially reduced, the price of petrochemical wire drawing in East China was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, and the price of PetroChina wire drawing in Northeast and Northwest China was reduced by 100 yuan / ton. With the spot price down, the basis is gradually repaired, and the period price is also under pressure.

Limited demand boost

As the domestic economy is under pressure, the overall consumption in the downstream is not performing well. Due to the limited orders and overstocked finished products, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is insufficient, and the wait-and-see mood is relatively strong, mainly on-demand procurement. The overall demand of this year is worse than that of previous years, and the operating rates of plastic knitting and BOPP are lower than that of the same period in the past three years.

Weak cost support

For the week ended October 18, the number of active US oil wells increased by one to 713, the first two-week increase since June. Iran’s oil minister zangane said the U.S. sanctions failed to curb the development of Iran’s oil industry or reduce investors’ concerns about geopolitical risks, thus to some extent driving down crude oil prices.

Technically speaking, the main contract pp2001 is lower than the 60 day average for three consecutive days, and it is under the pressure of the brin middle track. The opening of the brin channel has the potential to enlarge. MACD extends below the zero axis, which is slightly empty technically.

To sum up, with the introduction of new capacity and the resumption of production of early maintenance devices, the pressure on the supply side will gradually become prominent. However, the demand side is subject to the slowdown of economic growth, so it may not have bright spots as a whole. The support of cost side is weakening, and the price is under pressure. The risk factors lie in the continuous decline of inventory, and the aggravation of geopolitical risks driving up the overall price of chemicals.

Operation plan

1. Contract selection: select the main contract pp2001 with active transaction.

2. Build warehouse: build warehouse in batches. Pp2001 selects a machine to build 100 empty orders between 8050-8080 yuan / ton. The deposit occupied is about 800000 yuan and the capital occupied is about 8%.

3. Stop gain and stop loss: set the stop loss range as 8220-8270 yuan / ton with the middle track of brin as the reference; set the stop gain range as 7800-7830 yuan / ton with the low point in the early stage as the reference.

4. Risk control: in case of adverse market changes, strictly implement stop loss plan.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, on October 21, the market of domestic DMF was weak. As of October 21, the quotation range of domestic top-grade DMF enterprises was 5500-5700 yuan / ton, and the focus of field negotiation was low-end.

II. Market analysis

Products: as of October 21, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng dmf5600-5700 yuan / ton, Henan Junhua dmf5500 yuan / ton, Zhejiang Jiangshan chemical dmf5700 yuan / ton, Anyang Jiutian dmf5600 yuan / ton, Yanchang Xinghua dmf5500 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinmei daily and monthly dmf5300 yuan / ton.

III. Market Analysis

Product: over the weekend, the market atmosphere of domestic DMF market is light. With the commencement of Luxi plant, the supply of goods increased, and the inventory pressure was significantly relieved. Other factories maintained a stable wait-and-see shipment, and the downstream just needed procurement was the main, procurement was not active, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. The business agency expects the domestic DMF market to weaken this week.

IV. future forecast

According to DMF analysts of business agency, in the short term, DMF price consolidation and operation are the main factors, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

I. trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, the current nickel price on October 22 is 128016.67 yuan / ton, down 0.35% from the previous trading day, up 43.02% from the beginning of the year, up 25.62% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Recently, nickel price has been declining. In terms of fundamentals, Indonesia’s early ore ban will lead to a domestic nickel iron gap next year, and the Philippines’ supply increase will be limited, which will lead to a domestic shortage of 130000 metal tons. However, the downstream stainless steel production profit declined, the existing steel plants stopped production, the demand for nickel decreased, and the nickel price was under pressure.

III. future prospects

Future market forecast: supply and demand are weak, LME nickel plate inventory is at a historical low, which has certain support for nickel price. In the early stage, the prohibition of mining was good news consumption. Now, nickel is mainly weak earthquake, and it is expected that nickel will still fluctuate in a weak trend in the short term.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the titanium dioxide market experienced three stages of ups and downs. Although the price has been rising steadily in the near future, the market price is still about 1500 yuan / ton lower than that of last year, while the price of titanium ore has continued to rise in the near future. Among them, the price of Panzhihua ore is basically the same as that of last year, the price of imported titanium ore has a significant increase compared with that of last year, and the high price of high-quality titanium ore is higher than that of last year. The price is as high as 70 US dollars per ton, with a rise of about 47% this year.

The pressure of titanium dioxide cost is large, the price of sulfuric acid has declined this year, which slightly eases the production cost of titanium dioxide. However, the weather in the North has gradually turned cold, and the market in the North has gradually entered the off-season. The price of titanium ore continues to rise.

Why the price of raw material titanium ore keeps rising?

From the supply side:

Imported titanium ore:

According to Tu Duoduo’s data, in the first half of 2019, China imported about 1.11 million tons of titanium ore, a decrease of 32% compared with the same period last year. From January to August, China imported 1676900 tons of titanium ore, a decrease of about 520000 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 23.61% compared with the same period last year.

The decrease of titanium ore import is mainly due to the exhaustion of titanium ore resources and the state’s control of radioactive elements. In this year, the resources in the raw ore area of Kenya are exhausted, Sibelco Australia is shut down at the end of 2019, and the project of melinor gudekang is shut down; there is still no quota for the export of titanium ore in Vietnam, and the export of private mining enterprises in India is still limited. In addition, China’s control on radioactive elements, titanium mines in Australia, South Africa, Vietnam and other places are all prohibited from import in varying degrees. This year, titanium is imported. There was a significant reduction in the number of mines.

Domestic titanium ore:

The output of domestic titanium ore has increased significantly compared with last year, so the price has not increased significantly compared with last year.

According to the statistics of Panxi mine, in the first half of this year, the amount of titanium minerals of small and medium-sized factories in Panzhihua area doubled compared with that of last year. In the first half of last year, the output of small and medium-sized factories around Panzhihua area was about 200000 tons, and this year it was more than 400000 tons.

In Panzhihua area, the increase of titanium production mainly includes the following aspects:

1. The price of iron ore rose, and many small and medium-sized concentrators returned to work.

2. The intensity of environmental protection is weakened, and the market operation is increased.

3. Compared with last year, Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has increased the demand for outsourcing ore this year, and the output of titanium ore has increased year on year.

The output of titanium ore in Xinjiang is 145000 tons in the first half of this year and 180000 tons in the whole year of last year. However, due to the high phosphorus content of titanium ore in Xinjiang, the downstream can only be used in combination, which has little impact on the market as a whole.

It is difficult to make up for the shortage of some imported titanium ores with the increase of domestic titanium ore production. And the content of perovskite and magnesium in China is high, so the raw material of low perovskite and titanium is needed in domestic chlorination process. In recent days, the price of Panxi titanium ore rose again, mainly due to tight supply.

Demand side:

Titanium ore is mainly produced by titanium dioxide. Taking titanium dioxide production as an example, according to the statistics of Tuduo, the cumulative production from January to September 2019 is 2316000 tons, an increase of about 100000 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 4.72% year on year. It is estimated that there will be an increase of over 100000 tons this year.

Titanium market is good, sponge titanium market price is in short supply, and the demand for raw materials is also increasing.

Demand growth, supply reduction, so this year’s titanium ore prices also continued to rise.

Why is titanium still optimistic?

Imported titanium ore:

The main production methods of titanium tetrachloride are shaft furnace chlorination, boiling chlorination and molten salt chlorination. The shaft furnace chlorination process with long process, small capacity and large labor volume has been basically eliminated. The production capacity of boiling chlorination is easy to expand, the three wastes are easy to be treated and other characteristics are more advanced than molten salt method. The domestic production of chlorination is mainly based on boiling chlorination. However, the requirements of boiling chlorination for raw materials are relatively strict, requiring low perovskite.

This year, new capacity of domestic chlorination process has been released, while titanium concentrate in Mozambique and Senegal is internationally recognized as the best raw material of chlorination process, with high grade and low content of calcium and magnesium (Cao, MgO < 0.01%), which has been in short supply.

This year, the capacity of new domestic chlorination process was released, which greatly increased the quality of titanium raw materials. Take longmang Bailian for example. Last year, 60000 tons of titanium dioxide from chlorination process were produced by enterprises. This year, 300000 tons of titanium dioxide were produced in Jiaozuo area. In addition, 60000 tons of titanium dioxide from chlorination process were produced in Yunnan Province, which doubled the demand for titanium raw materials from high-quality chlorination process. This year, the chlorination process of Tianyuan in Yibin was put into production, and the chlorination process capacity of Xiangsheng in Xinjiang and other enterprises was put into production. Release, sponge titanium market demand, demand for raw materials is also increasing. However, there are still a large number of capacity under construction in the market, and the mining of new mines will face various problems. The price of titanium raw materials for high-quality chlorination continues to be optimistic.

Panxi titanium ore:

1. As the price of imported titanium ore continues to rise, the downstream titanium dioxide plants are also adjusting the proportion of ore consumption and increasing the demand for Panzhihua ore.

2. Since September, Panzhihua steel titanium industry requires that the outsourced processing enterprises of iron and titanium products must return the titanium concentrate in full amount as agreed in the contract, resulting in the suspension of the export quantity of the outsourced enterprises that return insufficient amount to Panzhihua Steel in the early stage. At present, the supply quantity of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua area is in short supply. It also causes the recent price increase.

4. The price of raw ore is high and the cost of medium-sized ore is high. If the factory price is 850 yuan / ton of medium-sized ore at present, the market price is 1300 yuan / ton and there is basically no profit;

5. After the national day, the operating rate of titanium dioxide increased and the demand for titanium ore increased.

Although the titanium dioxide market has gradually entered the off-season, the supply of titanium ore is tight, and the price will still run at a high level, which also supports the price of titanium dioxide.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) has been continuously reduced in recent days. On October 16, the average price of enterprises was 7566 yuan / ton; on October 21, the average price of enterprises fell to 7287 yuan / ton, a drop of 3.69%.

II. Analysis and comment

Product: it is the National Day holiday at the beginning of October. Due to the impact of the policy of limiting production and operation, the price of propylene during the holiday has been generally stable, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of the enterprises rose. On the 12th, the prices stabilized. On the 13th, 14th and 15th, they all rose slightly. On the 16th, they were stable. On the 17th, most of the enterprises began to decline. On the weekend, the decline was obvious. Today, some enterprises still fell. At present, the market turnover is about 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7200 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of the refinery is increasing, and the shipment is not smooth.

Industry chain: upstream, the international crude oil market fluctuates in a narrow range, with limited support for propylene market. In the downstream, affected by environmental protection issues, most of the downstream product prices of propylene are in a downward trend, the demand side support is weakened, and the purchase of propylene is cold and wait-and-see.

In the near future, the PP spot market is weak, and the current price is the same as that at the beginning of last week, which has little impact on propylene.

Domestic acrylic acid demand is weak in recent days, the market inquiry volume is small, today’s market down 2.16%, propylene prices have a certain degree of repression.

Propylene oxide has declined several times in recent days, down 2.22% on the 6th, which is also bad for propylene market.

The price of epichlorohydrin has been rising for several times, up 16% in half a month, which has a certain effect on propylene market.

In recent days, the n-butanol market has been affected by the support surface, maintaining a weak stability and consolidation, and the price has not fluctuated.

The price of octanol has been explored continuously in recent days, with a 6-day drop of 2.52%. Recently, octanol market or low consolidation is the main factor, which has a suppressive effect on propylene market.

Isopropanol market has been a weak decline since October, half month decline has reached 12.29%, the downstream do not buy the mood to wait-and-see, the delivery of goods holders is relatively soft, which has a negative impact on propylene market.

Phenol market fell 8.90% in half a month, or it will continue to maintain this trend, which will suppress propylene.

Acetone market fell 10.49% in half a month, and may continue to maintain weak operation, which is bad for propylene market.

III. future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the propylene market has been continuously lowered recently. Crude oil mainly fluctuates in a narrow range; most of the lower reaches are down and the purchase is cold, so it is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to decline in recent days.

I. price trend of epichlorohydrin:

The market price of epichlorohydrin rose by 3.37% as of October 21, compared with that of last Friday (October 18), according to the data in the large list of business agencies. Today, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin is 17000-19200 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market rose on the 21st. On 21, the domestic epichlorohydrin market continued to rise, the supply side was tight, the focus of the negotiation was high-end, the mentality of the buyer was strong, low-cost goods were hard to find, downstream users just needed to buy, the buyer did not take the initiative to offer, and there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the site.

Industrial chain: the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong fell slightly on the 21st. At the beginning of October, it was the National Day holiday. Due to the impact of the policy of limiting production and operation, the price of propylene remained stable during the holiday, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of the enterprises rose. On the 12th, the prices stabilized. On the 13th, 14th and 15th, they all rose slightly. On the 16th, they were stable. On the 17th, most of the enterprises began to decline. On the weekend, the decline was obvious. Today, some enterprises still fell. At present, the market turnover is about 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7200 yuan / ton. On the 21st, the downstream epoxy resin was obviously supported by the production cost, and the manufacturers mainly made high-level offers.

3. Future forecast:

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of the business association, the slight drop of upstream raw material propylene has limited impact on epichlorohydrin, and the supply and demand side is still the key to increase or decrease the price of epichlorohydrin. The short-term operators are optimistic, and the tight situation of the market is difficult to ease temporarily. The market may maintain a high level of consolidation, which does not rule out the possibility of pushing up. The specific situation still needs to pay close attention to the upstream and downstream mainstream manufacturers’ information guidance.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the market price of cryolite this week has a stable trend. The average market price in this week is about 6350.00 yuan / ton, up 33.33 yuan / ton or 0.52% compared with last weekend, down 1.30% compared with last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the price trend of cryolite is stable this week, and there is no obvious price adjustment by the manufacturer within the week. As of August 18, Zibo Kunyu industry and trade cryolite offered 6500 yuan / ton; Changshu Hongjia fluorine Co., Ltd. cryolite offered 7200 yuan / ton; Jiaozuo Minli industry cryolite offered 6950 yuan / ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui crystal technology cryolite offered 6600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. cryolite price 7000 yuan / ton, the enterprise shipped smoothly, and the transaction was acceptable.

Industry chain: the price trend of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite is stable this week, and the average price of domestic market is about 2866.67 yuan / ton in the week. The price trend of upstream domestic fluorite fluctuated at a low level. As of the 18th day, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2866.67 yuan / ton. In the near future, the domestic fluorite unit was started normally, the mine and flotation unit in the field were started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field was sufficient, and the price of downstream hydrofluoric acid remained at a low level in the near future. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the situation of fluorite in the field was poor, and the market price of fluorite was temporarily stable. In the aspect of downstream electrolytic aluminum, the trend of aluminum price this week increased. The price at the beginning of the week remained at about 13813.33 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week it was about 14016.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1.47% in the week.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 4 kinds of commodities with a 5% increase or more, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%). This week’s average was – 0.76%.

III. future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, the current cryolite manufacturer’s factory quotation is multi-dimensional and stable, the device operates normally, the inventory is sufficient, and the shipment is acceptable. It is expected that the market of cryolite in the later stage will be mainly sorted and operated, with specific attention to market demand.

I. market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week is 4800 yuan / ton, which is stable.

II. Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4800 yuan / ton, including tax. The quotation is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4800 yuan / ton, which is stable. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, and the factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4800 yuan / ton, including tax; the quotation of the manufacturer continues to be stable, and the demand for downstream resin and pesticide is general.

Industrial chain: upstream methanol situation. Since last Friday (10.11), the domestic methanol market has been surging and falling back. As of October 15, the average price of domestic methanol market is 2352 yuan / ton. The price is 12.11% higher than that of the same period last month, and 28.92% lower than that of the same period last year.

III. future forecast

The price of raw material methanol has gone down, and the market demand for POM is general. According to POM analysts of the business association, the price of POM may continue to maintain stable operation.

I. price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to move forward steadily this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1816.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1816.67 yuan / ton, up or down by 0.

II. Market analysis

Product: the overall market performance of sodium metabisulfite this week is average. The market price range of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is 1700-1950 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are around 1800-1850 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market is relatively abundant in stock, and the downstream trade entities still have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, with limited new orders and fast in and out. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry chain: this week, the upstream soda price slightly increased by 1.52%, and the sulfur price increased by 5.32%. The slight recovery of raw material cost will support the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

III. future forecast

Business analysts believe that the raw material cost support is getting stronger and individual enterprises’ quotation is increased, but most enterprises maintain the price unchanged. The market of Jiaoya is still mainly affected by the demand support, and it will take some time for the market to really turn better.