According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in March 2026, the overall domestic 1 # antimony ingot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with a monthly increase. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 168000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 169000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 0.6% for the whole month.

Supply side:
In the international market, overseas antimony ingot prices fluctuated at a high level in March. Global antimony resources are scarce and there is a significant supply-demand gap. Overseas mining production is weak and supply elasticity is insufficient. At the same time, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is gradually narrowing, and the flow of Southeast Asian antimony raw materials to China is increasing, which to some extent alleviates the shortage of domestic raw materials, but does not change the overall tight situation. The domestic and foreign supply sides jointly provide bottom support for domestic antimony prices.
The overall supply pattern of antimony ingots in China remained tight in March. The environmental supervision in the main production areas continues to be strict, coupled with the stable and limited pace of mining production, the slow pace of raw material replenishment in the smelting process, and the limited space for overall output release in the field. The tight circulation of raw materials combined with the overall low level of inventory in the industry, the shrinking volume of spot circulation in the market, and the cautious shipping mentality of production enterprises, have formed a stable support for the market in terms of overall supply of goods. The temporary tight supply of goods has also driven the prices to rise in stages during the month.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: In March, downstream demand was mainly stable and rigid, with limited capacity to accept high priced antimony ingots, which restricted the upward space of prices. Among them, antimony oxide, as a core deep processing product, has a highly correlated demand performance with the antimony ingot market. As the largest consumer scenario of antimony oxide in the traditional flame retardant field, regular on-demand procurement was maintained in March without centralized replenishment behavior. Due to restrictions on halogenated flame retardants in the European Union and other regions, as well as fluctuations in bromine prices, downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high priced antimony oxide, and procurement is mainly focused on small batch and essential replenishment..
Photovoltaic: Demand steadily increased in March, and antimony oxide was processed into sodium pyroantimonate and used as a clarifying agent in photovoltaic glass production to improve glass transparency and strength. However, the industry’s high inventory and oversupply pressure have not yet eased, and the pace of demand release has slowed down, failing to form a large-scale procurement pull. The demand for lead-acid batteries and other traditional fields remains stable, and the overall downstream purchasing mentality tends to be cautious. The wait-and-see sentiment is heating up, and there is insufficient follow-up on actual transactions. The market’s fear of high prices is gradually emerging.
Market outlook: Taking into account the domestic and international supply and demand patterns, it is expected that the domestic antimony ingot market will maintain a high level of volatility and a stable to strong operation in April. On the supply side, domestic environmental protection and mining control continue, and the tight overseas supply pattern is difficult to change. The shortage of raw materials and the reluctance of enterprises to sell still exist, and low-priced sources are scarce. Merchants have a strong willingness to raise prices. On the demand side, the demand for antimony oxide in the flame retardant field remains stable, and the incremental support in the photovoltaic glass field will continue. However, downstream acceptance of high costs is limited, making it difficult to have explosive growth and limiting the potential for significant price increases. It is expected that the overall trend will continue to be dominated by high-level fluctuations and consolidation.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices fluctuated and fell mainly in March. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 102136.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 95520 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 6.48% and a year-on-year increase of 17.15%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices were higher than futures prices in March, with the main contract being the expected price two months later. It is expected that copper prices will be better in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly in March. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 359825 tons, up 39.64% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, geopolitical risks such as the US Iran conflict continue to ferment, and the market is concerned that potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will impact global crude oil supply. High oil prices not only drive up smelting costs (such as sulfuric acid), but also suppress manufacturing demand, exacerbating expectations of a global economic slowdown, thereby suppressing copper consumption prospects.
Supply side: As of late March, the spot processing fee (TC) for imported copper concentrate in China has fallen to a deep negative range of over -60 US dollars per ton. Unlike in the past when there was a shortage of cold materials such as scrap copper and crude copper, which could provide a buffer, the cold material market has also tightened significantly this month. Due to the shortage of raw materials and severe losses in processing fees, coupled with the centralized maintenance period of domestic smelters in April and May, the market generally expects a more than expected decline in refined copper production.
Downstream: After a significant drop in copper prices, downstream purchasing intentions have been significantly released. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rods has rebounded to 72.9%, basically returning to the same period last year. Copper rod enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices, resulting in a decrease in finished product inventory. The construction of AI data centers, global power grid upgrades (especially the renovation of old power grids in Europe and America), and energy transformation (wind power, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles) are regarded as the “three major engines” for future copper consumption. Especially the huge consumption of electricity by AI computing power centers is seen as a new variable driving copper demand.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper has risen more than fallen in April.
In summary, the copper market in March is undergoing a deep adjustment driven by macro factors. Although geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve’s policy shift have brought significant short-term selling pressure, the supply and demand relationship at the industrial level has not actually deteriorated. It is expected that copper prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downward space is expected to be limited.

Under the multiple game of cost weakening, supply contraction, and weak demand, the PTA market has entered a phase of correction since mid March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.77% from March 17th.

On March 23rd, New York time, international crude oil futures collapsed across the board. As of the close, NYMEX May crude oil futures plummeted $10.10, a decrease of 10.28%, with a settlement price of $88.13 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil fell $12.25 in May, a decrease of 10.9%, closing at $99.94 per barrel, falling below the 100 yuan mark; Brent crude oil fell 9.9% in June, to $95.92 per barrel. Stimulated by news from the US, oil prices plummeted by nearly 15% during trading. Subsequently, Iranian officials denied dialogue with the US, resulting in a slight narrowing of the decline. The long short game was at its peak on the market, and PTA cost support weakened.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the PTA industry will be in a capacity vacuum period in 2026, with no new production capacity added. Coupled with the compression of enterprise processing fees, PTA production enterprises will actively reduce their workload for maintenance. Due to severe cost fluctuations, the difference in PTA spot processing has been significantly reduced, resulting in an increase in production cuts and shutdowns of domestic facilities. The current industry operating rate is only 77%, with supply side contraction supporting price increases.
In terms of demand, after PTA prices surged, downstream polyester and weaving enterprises faced a sharp decline in their willingness to purchase high priced raw materials, resulting in sluggish production and sales, and insufficient support for high priced demand. The shortage of overseas orders and the rebound of polyester finished product inventory have further suppressed the recovery of terminal demand, becoming an important driving force for the PTA market downturn.
Business analysts believe that the PTA maintenance plan for the second quarter exceeds 8 million tons, and the logic of supply contraction remains unchanged. In addition, PTA processing fees are still at a low level, and the downward space is limited. However, there are still suppressing factors, and the trend of crude oil and PX prices, as well as the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, directly determine the direction of the cost side. At the same time, the recovery strength of terminal demand is questionable, and the shortage of overseas orders and high inventory of enterprises may continue to affect procurement sentiment. Short term fluctuations in the funding situation may also exacerbate market volatility.

price trend

In the past week (March 18 to March 24, 2026), the domestic PA66 market has shown an overall trend of high and strong fluctuations and upward movement, with the price center steadily rising. The market is in a stalemate of supply control, strong cost support, and weak demand waiting to see. Low price sources are gradually tightening, and the overall bargaining space is narrowing. Transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs. On March 24th, the benchmark price of PA66 by Shengyi Society was reported at 20533.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.12% from 19533.33 on March 18th.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
Recently, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have continued, and international oil prices have fluctuated at high levels. In March, the execution price of hexamethylenediamine in NVIDIA China was raised to 22000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4200 yuan/ton from February; Adipic acid fluctuated at a high level within the week and slightly rose. On March 24th, the benchmark price of adipic acid in Shengyi Society was 10433 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29% from 10300 yuan/ton on March 18th.
Supply side:
Recently, the volume of imported goods has decreased compared to the same period last year, and coupled with the impact of high price expectations on traders, there is a strong sentiment of hoarding and reluctance to sell. Both manufacturers and traders have low overall inventory, and the market spot circulation is tight.
In terms of demand:
Recently, although most downstream textile industries have resumed work and production, their acceptance of the current high PA66 price is extremely low, and they have a strong wait-and-see attitude. They generally abandon the previous hoarding mode and adopt a small order procurement strategy of immediate use and procurement, only maintaining basic production and stocking, without centralized replenishment or large-scale procurement actions.
Future forecast
In the future, the PA66 market is likely to maintain a high and narrow range oscillation trend in the short term. The core logic is still that cost support is stronger than demand suppression, and prices are unlikely to experience significant unilateral fluctuations in the short term. Overall, stability is the main focus, with slight fluctuations. The follow-up market still focuses on the two core variables of changes in raw material costs and the progress of downstream terminal demand recovery.

Since March, the nitrile rubber market has seen a significant upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the price was 21175 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.31% from 16250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, driving upstream butadiene trading at high levels (FOB South Korea $2030/ton, CFR China $2050/ton). The cost of core raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile has skyrocketed, and the cost pressure on enterprises has increased sharply. There are maintenance plans for nitrile rubber plants at home and abroad in the later stage, which supports the supplier’s confidence in raising prices.
In March, domestic nitrile rubber plants started operating at a high level, and there are maintenance plans for nitrile plants both domestically and internationally at the end of March and April.
In February, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile surged, and the cost of nitrile rubber was strongly supported. As of March 24th, the price of butadiene was 16766 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.78% from 9933 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 24th, the price of acrylonitrile was 11366 yuan/ton, an increase of 60.09% from 7100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
At the beginning of the month, downstream product companies mainly focused on digesting inventory. Later on, with the intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, some downstream companies considered purchasing in small quantities at a later cost. The production of nitrile rubber downstream hoses in China was at 68%, and demand faced the rigid demand support of nitrile rubber.
Market forecast: Business Society’s nitrile analyst believes that the current cost support for nitrile rubber is strong; Stable downstream demand; The supply of nitrile rubber is expected to decrease in the later stage, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

On March 23rd, the domestic PVC market experienced a unilateral strong trend, with the main futures contracts soaring significantly, while spot prices rose synchronously but not as much as futures, presenting an overall pattern of “futures leading the rise, spot prices following the rise, cost leading, and weak demand”. The core driving force behind this round of price increases comes from the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which has led to a surge in raw material costs. Coupled with the expectation of supply contraction caused by domestic spring maintenance, weak downstream demand, high price resistance, and high social inventory have become the core obstacles restricting the sustained rise in prices. The market’s long short game focuses on the mismatch between costs and fundamentals. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of PVC SG-5 in East China is reported at 6063 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.9%. Core driver: Violent cost side price increases, supply side contraction expectations strengthened

1. Geopolitical factors drive the increase in raw material costs, with ethylene becoming the core driving force
The tense situation of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East continues, and the high level of international crude oil directly drives the price surge of the ethylene industry chain, becoming the most core driving force for the rise of PVC. The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price has surged by over 90% since the end of February, and the domestic East China ethylene listing price has also increased significantly, with the increase exceeding 65%. The production cost of ethylene based PVC has sharply risen, and some ethylene based plants have been forced to reduce production or even shut down due to raw material shortages and cost inversion. The expectation of tight raw material supply has completely ignited the bullish sentiment in the market. At the same time, the price of calcium carbide has risen synchronously, with smooth shipments from calcium carbide factories and low inventory levels. The factory price has continued to increase, further consolidating the cost support of calcium carbide method PVC. The cost center of the two types of processes has also shifted upwards, driving up the overall valuation of PVC. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of calcium carbide increased by nearly 10% in March.
2. Spring maintenance gradually landing supply side pressure marginal relief
The supply side is showing a structural contraction trend. Currently, the overall operating rate of the PVC industry is about 80%, with a slight increase compared to the previous period, mainly offset by a slight rebound in the operating rate of carbide process equipment; The operating rate of the ethylene process has significantly decreased to 70%, and spring maintenance has gradually entered an intensive period. The loss of equipment maintenance continues to increase, and the market’s expectation of further supply contraction in the future remains strong. Although the overall supply is still at a neutral to high level, reduced production and increased maintenance of equipment have effectively alleviated the pressure of oversupply in the early stage and provided fundamental support for price increases.
2、 Supply and demand contradiction: insufficient demand follow-up, high inventory, and continued suppression
The weak performance on the demand side makes it difficult to match the skyrocketing pace on the cost side, resulting in a clear supply-demand mismatch. Although downstream pipe and profile enterprises have slowly rebounded in production, they have strong resistance to high priced PVC, and their performance in new orders is poor. Most enterprises mainly focus on replenishing inventory for essential needs and dare not hoard large quantities, which hinders the transmission chain of prices. Although the export side has slightly increased its acceptance of high prices, forming a certain demand support, it is difficult to completely offset the weak domestic demand gap. The overall demand side can only play a bottom support role and cannot promote sustained unilateral price increases.

The inventory side is still a potential pressure in the market. Although social inventory continues to slowly deplete, the absolute value is still at a historical high level. The pattern of high inventory has not fundamentally changed, and the subsequent destocking rate will become a key indicator affecting the sustainability of the market. If downstream demand continues to be sluggish and destocking slows down, it will directly constrain the upward space of PVC spot prices.
3、 Market outlook: Short term strong operation, alert to the risk of sentiment decline
In the short term, the core trading logic of the PVC market still revolves around the cost increase and supply contraction caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The strong support on the cost side has not dissipated, and the expectation of supply contraction is still present. Prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall, and the short-term PVC spot market is likely to maintain a strong and volatile pattern. In the medium term, if the geopolitical premium gradually subsides and raw material costs fall, coupled with the suppression of high inventory and weak demand fundamentals, the upward momentum of PVC prices will gradually weaken, and it is likely to return to the oscillation trend dominated by supply and demand fundamentals. It is necessary to closely track the marginal changes on the cost and demand sides.

1. Trend Analysis

According to data monitored by Business Society, copper prices declined slightly this week, closing at 95,813.33 yuan per ton by the 20th, down 3.54% from the start of the week but up 17.52% year-on-year.
According to the weekly price trend chart from Business Society, copper prices have seen three declines and three increases over the past three months, with a slight drop this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories rose slightly, reaching 335,425 tons by the end of the week, up 7.65% from the beginning of the week.
Macro perspective: The overnight Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting delivered a strong hawkish signal, coupled with the sharp escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions, instantly freezing global risk asset sentiment.
Supply side: The resumption of production in major copper-producing countries such as Peru and Chile, combined with the commissioning of new mines in Africa, has shifted global copper concentrate supply from shortage to surplus.
Demand side: The traditional peak season of “Golden Three” did not arrive as expected, with cautious inquiries from downstream buyers and low but inconsistent procurement. The continuous deterioration in real estate data (new construction projects down 23.1%) directly dragged down cable and home appliance consumption.
In summary: Copper prices remain high year-on-year, which has dampened end consumption. Under the hawkish pressure from the Federal Reserve, financial attributes dominate pricing, leading to significant short-term adjustment pressure on copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will primarily experience a weak adjustment in the short term.

This week, the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market maintained a high level of consolidation and operation. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 19th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 13166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.77% compared to the previous month.

On the raw material side: The price of fluorite sulfuric acid, a raw material, has risen one after another this week, with strong support from the cost side. The continuous pressure of upstream costs has severely squeezed the profit margins of hydrofluoric acid production enterprises, and some enterprises are even in a loss making state. This fundamentally limits the downward space of hydrofluoric acid prices and has stimulated the market’s willingness to push up prices. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 19th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3475.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.28% compared to the beginning of this month (3431.25 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: Downstream demand is weak, and the acceptance of high priced raw materials is not high. Procurement is mainly based on rigid individual orders. Especially for some refrigerant models, the downward trend in production has led to insufficient follow-up on the procurement of hydrofluoric acid, making it difficult to effectively digest market supply. In addition, the hydrofluoric acid market has long been in a situation of oversupply, with many production enterprises producing according to orders, and the overall operating rate of the industry is not high. It is expected that anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will operate steadily in the short term.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite sulfuric acid is supported by high levels, while downstream demand is weak, mainly due to rigid demand procurement. The demand side support is insufficient, and the acceptance of high priced raw materials is not high. It is expected that the market price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will mainly consolidate in the short term. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

price trend
In the past week (March 11th to March 17th, 2026), the domestic PA6 market has shown an overall trend of high volatility and slight fluctuations. The mainstream focus of negotiations remains high, and the overall trading atmosphere is cautious. Actual transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and low-priced sources continue to be scarce. The market is in a stalemate with strong cost support and weak demand follow-up. On March 17th, the benchmark price of PA6 in Shengyi Society was 14033 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 3.22% from 14500 yuan/ton on March 11th.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
The price of caprolactam is directly driven by the linkage between pure benzene and crude oil. Recently, international oil prices have remained high due to the geopolitical situation, and the cost pressure on the raw material side continues to transmit downwards, directly pushing up the production cost of PA6 polymerization plants, and the profit margin of manufacturers continues to be compressed. According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of caprolactam has risen from 11787.50 yuan/ton to 12407.50 yuan/ton in the past week, with a weekly increase of 5.26%.
Supply side:
In the past week, the supply side of the PA6 industry has slightly relaxed, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. On the one hand, some of the PA6 polymerization units that underwent early maintenance have resumed production, coupled with improved supply of raw material caprolactam, resulting in a steady increase in the manufacturer’s operating load; On the other hand, there has been a gradual release of new production capacity in the industry recently, and the overall market supply has increased compared to the previous period.
In terms of demand:
In terms of downstream terminals, the textile and chemical fiber industry has fully resumed work, and the operating rate has steadily rebounded. However, the acceptance of high-level raw materials is limited, and the willingness to purchase goods is weak. They tend to replenish as needed and purchase as needed, without centralized replenishment or large-scale hoarding. The overall trading activity in the market is not high, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and insufficient transaction volume.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the PA6 market still operates around the core logic of cost support and supply-demand stalemate, with prices likely to remain high and narrow, and it is difficult to see significant fluctuations. Focus on the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil and caprolactam prices, as well as the recovery of downstream terminal orders.

This week, the domestic melamine market continued its strong upward trend, and under the combined effects of cost push, supply tightening, and enterprise price hikes, the price center has significantly shifted upward. Here is a detailed analysis of this week’s market trend:

1、 Price trend:
This week, the market price of melamine has risen more sharply than last week. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6625.00 yuan/ton on March 17th, an increase of 325 yuan in just five days compared to 6300.00 yuan/ton on Monday (March 10th), with a weekly increase of 5.16%. Compared with the 5970.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month (March 1st), the cumulative increase is 655 yuan, and the overall increase has expanded to 10.97%. This price level has also broken the recent market high.
From daily data, the price showed a continuous upward trend this week. On March 10th, it was reported at 6300.00 yuan/ton, and then quickly broke through the range of 6337 yuan to 6446 yuan between the 11th and 13th. Over the weekend, it accelerated to above 6550 yuan and reached a high of 6625 yuan today. The steep upward trend of prices clearly reflects the current strong market pattern.
2、 Cost, supply, and demand resonance
1. Cost side: The significant increase in upstream raw material prices this week is the most core driving force behind the rise in melamine prices. The recent geopolitical events in the Strait of Hormuz have hindered the import of methanol, a key raw material. Domestic methanol prices have risen by over 7% in a single day, directly pushing up the production cost of urea. As a direct raw material for melamine, the upward pressure on the price of urea is clearly transmitted along the “methanol → urea → melamine” industry chain. At the same time, the drastic fluctuations in international crude oil prices have provided strong cost support and risk premium for the entire chemical industry chain.
2. Supply side: While costs are rising, the supply side has not relaxed. Although the overall operating rate of the industry has fluctuated this week, it still remains relatively low, and the frequent start and stop of equipment has led to limited spot circulation in the market. Data shows that on March 16th, the utilization rate of melamine production capacity in China was 56.99%. Although there was a slight rebound compared to the previous period, some enterprises resumed production over the weekend while others experienced equipment shutdowns. This kind of ‘one goes and the other goes’ parking and resumption of production makes it difficult for the market supply to form stable expectations, and instead exacerbates the temporary tense situation.
In this context, the sentiment of production enterprises pushing prices and even being reluctant to sell has become increasingly strong. Entering this week, major manufacturers are still intensively raising prices
3. Demand side: The downstream sheet metal and molded plastic industries have fully resumed work after the holiday, forming a rigid demand support. A large number of construction sites across the country have started construction, driving the demand for building templates and playing a fundamental role in driving the demand for melamine. Although demand is not the main engine in this round of price increases, it provides a foundation for sustained price increases, allowing cost pressures to be smoothly transmitted downstream.
3、 Future prospects

Looking ahead to next week, it is expected that the melamine market will maintain a high and firm trend. On the supply side, companies generally have no inventory pressure, and some devices are still in a shutdown state, making it difficult for manufacturers to reduce their willingness to raise prices in the short term. On the cost side, the raw material urea market is expected to remain strong under the support of spring plowing demand, which will continue to provide bottom support for melamine.
However, market risks are also accumulating. As prices continue to rise, downstream companies’ willingness to chase after high prices may weaken, and their ability to accept high priced raw materials remains to be observed. There may be room for negotiation in some high priced transactions. It is recommended that market participants closely monitor the trend of raw material prices, the progress of restarting production facilities, and the actual order situation followed up by downstream.