1、 This week’s price trend review: first suppressed and then rose, overall firm
This week, the price of melamine experienced a process of “downward adjustment, stabilization, and slight increase”:
Adjustment at the beginning of the week: The benchmark price remained at 6075.00 yuan/ton on November 3, and slightly fell 0.21% to 6062.50 yuan/ton on November 4.
Horizontal stabilization: From November 5th to November 8th, the price remained flat at 6062.50 yuan/ton for four consecutive days, indicating a clear bottoming feature in the market.
Weekend rebound: On November 9th, the price increased by 0.21% again to 6075.00 yuan/ton. As of November 10th, the overall market has risen by 0.21% compared to the beginning of the week, showing a strong and small upward trend.
Cost side:
On November 10th, the benchmark price of urea was 1752.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% from the beginning of this month. The slight increase in the price of urea, as the core upstream raw material of melamine, provides some cost support for melamine. This is also an important reason for the increased willingness of melamine manufacturers to raise prices in the second half of this week and the market no longer continuing to decline.
Comprehensive analysis and future prospects
Summary: This week, the melamine market is in a resonance period of “historical long-term low”+”cost side urea small rise support”+”short-term price technical rebound”. The market shows strong resistance to decline around 6060 yuan/ton.
Future outlook:
In the short term, the melamine market may continue to maintain a pattern of “firm consolidation and narrow fluctuations”. Focus on the following signals:
1. Key indicator: Pay close attention to whether the 10 day moving average can substantially cross the 20 day moving average upwards. If this signal is formed, it represents the start of a true upward trend.
2. Demand follow-up: Currently at a low level with a small increase, it is necessary to observe whether the downstream terminal’s willingness to receive goods improves with the mentality of “buying up, not buying down”. If the demand cannot be effectively amplified, the rebound space may be limited.
3. Raw material fluctuations: Continue to track the trend of urea prices. If the raw material continues to rise, it will further raise the bottom line of defense for melamine.

In early November, the domestic ABS market rose at the beginning of the month and then fell at a high level, with spot prices of various grades experiencing a certain decline. As of November 10th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11816.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.04% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter November, the load changes of domestic ABS industry equipment are relatively narrow, and the overall operating rate has slightly increased within the range, but it has not yet exceeded 56%. The current weekly average production is 120000 tons. The inventory of finished products has slightly increased to over 190000 tons, but it is still at a relatively low level. The shipment situation of the aggregation plant within the range is still acceptable, and the profit situation is average. The load reduction operation of future aggregation plants is limited. Overall, the ABS supply side provided sufficient support for spot prices in early November.
Cost factor: The Democratic Party’s victory in the midterm elections earlier this month has somewhat suppressed geopolitical risks. In addition, the escalation of the Middle East conflict last month and incidents such as oil tanker fires in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices to high levels, causing a significant drop in current crude oil prices.
Affected by it, acrylonitrile gradually shifted from a larger upward force at the beginning of the month. Upstream propylene prices have rebounded and fluctuated, with weak expectations for the future market. In addition, the relatively loose supply of acrylonitrile and the continued mediocre performance of terminal demand have led to bearish guidance and a decline in spot prices. On the other hand, the continuous loss situation in acrylonitrile production does not rule out the possibility that some units will take production reduction measures in the future, which may limit the decline of acrylonitrile to a certain extent.
Since early November, domestic styrene has experienced a wide decline. The price of raw material pure benzene has plummeted, and there is an expectation of increased supply in the future. Although the overall supply of styrene is tight, downstream acceptance of prices is insufficient, and it is expected that the styrene market will consolidate and operate after a short-term decline.
Although butadiene was also affected by the resonance of the decline in commodity prices led by crude oil in November, the market trend is basically in a state of consolidation and oscillation. Recently, both domestic Lihua Yi and Shandong Haijiang have engaged in load shedding operations, causing supply contraction and dragging down spot prices. At the same time, downstream purchases of essential goods were released after the price fell back to a suitable range, driving the improvement of spot transactions. However, the weakness on the demand side lies in the lack of sustained replenishment power and limited ability to undertake high priced projects.
On the demand side, there was little change in the start of work of downstream ABS enterprises in early November. The profit improvement of the main terminal electrical industry is limited, and the digestion of finished products during the Double 11 Consumer Festival needs to be verified. The buyer camp’s sentiment is resistant to high priced goods, and they can restock at low prices and take as needed. Intermediaries are cautious in speculating and buying at the bottom, and their operations need to be observed. Overall, in early November, the demand side was dominated by rigid demand.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market rose and then fell in early November. Within the range, the consolidation of raw materials in the third and second categories has suffered a significant setback, resulting in weakened support on the cost side. The production load of the aggregation plant fluctuates narrowly, and the inventory is low. In terms of consumer demand, there is generally no improvement in unit price profitability. The main driving force for the upward trend in the early stage was the stall of remote raw materials, and traders offered discounts and placed orders. There may still be a certain decline in the future market.

Recently, domestic formic acid prices have surged. As of November 9th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid was 2600 yuan/ton, an increase of 4% from the beginning of the month.
Supply: The realization of the production reduction effect is the dominant variable in this week’s pricing
The direct driving force behind the price increase is on the supply side. The previous production reduction effect continues to be released, with a general decline in enterprise inventory and a tight circulation of social spot goods; Mainstream factories have basically achieved production and sales balance, and their willingness to raise prices has increased. The supply has not turned loose, but has switched from “rapid tightening” to “low-level stability”, providing bottom support for prices.
Requirement: Urgent need to support bottom line transactions, insufficient willingness to chase high prices
The demand side is the main constraint that prevents prices from continuing to rise. The price increase has been transmitted downstream, and with the rise in procurement costs, downstream consumers generally switch to purchasing for immediate needs and replenishing as needed, lacking the ability to stock up on inventory. The manufacturer’s shipments are smooth and the fundamentals have not weakened, but the trading volume is limited to “sufficient” and cannot provide pulling force for the second round of upward trend. The market has entered a stalemate game: the supply side is unwilling to lower prices, and the demand side is unwilling to chase higher prices, with prices repeatedly confirmed around 2600 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: There is still upward momentum
The supply contraction caused by the production reduction has been realized, and the short-term downside risk is limited. However, demand is only following up with essential needs, rather than demand expansion. Therefore, prices are expected to rise steadily, but specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, nickel prices first rose and then fell. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 124183.33 yuan/ton, up 4.31% from the beginning of the week and up 2.84% year-on-year.
Indonesian RKAB enhances its sense of movement
The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines has announced a global nickel surplus of 700000 to 800000 tons and is considering reducing its quota for 2027; Officials said that the tightening may expand and named Huayou and others to reduce production, causing disruptions in immediate circulation due to mining trade law enforcement. Quota management in the medium and long term, production reduction management in the present, and law enforcement as triggers have weakened bearish confidence, and policy expectations resonate with fund replenishment.
The US midterm elections have landed
The uncertain control of Congress before the election suppresses risky assets, and the strong yields of the US dollar and US Treasury suppress colored valuations. After the results were implemented, the market re priced, fiscal expansion was restricted, inflationary pressures eased, the US dollar fell, and risk appetite was restored. The external nickel market was the first to strengthen and transmit to Shanghai nickel, and the macro environment shifted from suppression to coordination.
In summary, there is a bottom of smelting loss costs and a bottom of Indonesia’s quota tightening policy. After recovering 120000 yuan, there is support for short-term strong fluctuations. However, the global surplus has not changed, with LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories of about 750000 tons. Domestic social inventories are still high, and refined nickel production is expected to remain stable in November. The reduction of HMA/HPM in the mining sector weakens cost hardness.

This week, the price of raw material propylene remained relatively high, and the price of acrylonitrile increased significantly driven by costs. As of November 5th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 12800-13000 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan/ton from last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is 12550-12700 yuan/ton, an increase of 900-950 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Loose supply:
According to statistics, this week (October 30th to November 5th), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 72.95%, unchanged from the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 87100 tons, which is the same as the previous cycle. Supply continues to be loose, but local production reduction plans will gradually be implemented, and buying follow-up has also driven the recent decline in spot inventory. As of November 4th, the total inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China is about 42000 tons, which is 0.7 million tons compared to last week.
Average demand:
There was little change in the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries this week, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 55.5%, an increase of 1.3% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 70.38%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 57.76%, which was -0.91% compared to last week.
High cost:
The raw material prices remained high during the week, but at the same time, the price of acrylonitrile increased significantly, which improved the theoretical production loss situation of acrylonitrile. According to statistics, as of November 4th, the mainstream closing average price of the propylene market in Shandong was 11290 yuan/ton, and the average production cost of acrylonitrile was 14266 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 3.50%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -1506 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 857 yuan/ton.
Post forecast: As the international oil price drops significantly near the weekend, the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened, and downstream buyers are resistant to high raw material prices, with low purchasing enthusiasm. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is average, but there is currently no pressure on industry inventory, and the cost side is unstable. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will follow the cost adjustment in the short term.

This week, the trading atmosphere in the melamine market has rebounded, and the overall market has shown a narrow adjustment and stable operation trend. Data shows that as of November 4th, the benchmark price of melamine was 6075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6087.50 yuan/ton).
Cost analysis: Unstable cost support for urea
As the main upstream raw material of melamine, the market changes of urea directly affect the cost support of melamine.
Urea price fluctuations: Recently, the urea market has been mixed with long and short positions, and the supply and demand pattern remains loose. Although the urea benchmark price slightly increased to 1760.00 yuan/ton on November 4th (up 0.86% from the beginning of the month), this was mainly due to short-term disturbances in news such as India’s bidding expectations and weak storage sentiment.
Weak cost support: Overall, urea itself is facing high inventory pressure from enterprises and the test of agricultural demand off-season, and the price increase lacks sustained momentum. Therefore, the cost support of urea for melamine is relatively limited, and it has not had a strong upward effect on the price of melamine.
Supply side analysis: Capacity release brings pressure
Entering November, the supply side of the melamine market is facing pressure to release production capacity.
The operating rate has rebounded: With the gradual resumption of production of some parking and maintenance facilities in the early stage, the operating rate of the melamine industry has significantly increased, and has now risen to a high of around 72%.
Supply increment is evident: The resumption of production has brought significant supply increment. In addition, there are still new production capacity waiting to be released domestically, and in the long run, the situation of loose supply of melamine has not fundamentally changed. The high operating rate and sufficient supply of goods have significantly suppressed the current market prices.
Demand side analysis: Limited terminal support for essential needs
Currently, it is the traditional off-season for melamine demand, and downstream demand is generally flat.
Downstream essential procurement: Due to the downturn in the terminal real estate industry, the main application areas of melamine, such as impregnated paper, decorative panels, coatings, etc., are experiencing insufficient production. Downstream factories generally adopt the strategy of “immediate use, immediate procurement” and rarely engage in centralized inventory replenishment.
Export is difficult to become the main engine: Although exports have alleviated some inventory pressure to a certain extent, they exhibit a “pulse like” characteristic and lack sustainability due to policy and international market price fluctuations. Overall, the weak demand side is the core factor restricting the rise in melamine prices.
Outlook for the coming period
Overall, the current melamine market is in a pattern of “loose supply, flat demand, and unstable costs”. Although downstream bargain hunting provides some support for prices, the high operating rate on the supply side and the sustained downturn on the demand side have resulted in a lack of clear upward driving force in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the price of melamine will continue to remain stable, maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations and consolidation trend. It is necessary to closely monitor the implementation of downstream winter storage policies and whether there are new equipment maintenance plans, which may have a marginal impact on the market supply and demand balance.

1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices first fell and then rose in October. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 111413.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price dropped to 110355 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 0.95% and a year-on-year increase of 25.52%.
The copper spot price in October was higher than the main contract price, indicating strong support for copper prices in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fluctuated and rose in October. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 274000 tons, up 10.45% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as scheduled in October, but Powell made it clear that another rate cut in December is not a certainty. There is significant internal divergence on the follow-up path, with the US dollar index rebounding and the marginal weakening of financial support for copper prices. On the domestic front, the 15th Five Year Plan proposes to boost market confidence and release signals of partial easing in China US economic and trade relations. However, the pace of domestic demand recovery is slow, and it is difficult to form a sustained unilateral driving force at the macro level.
Supply side: Copper concentrate spot TC reported -42.5 US dollars/dry ton at the end of October, deeply trapped in the negative range and without a turning point, further solidified by rigid constraints at the mining end. In October, the maintenance of domestic smelters involved a production capacity of 2.75 million tons, and the actual output of electrolytic copper was 1.1061 million tons, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the previous month. The peak of maintenance combined with the shortage of raw materials resulted in a temporary tightening of refined copper supply. The tight logic of mining has entered the substantive realization of production from the expected level.
Downstream: The purity of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” is clearly insufficient. The operating rate of copper cable companies in October fell to 67.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1 percentage points, and the suppression of power grid orders by high copper prices became apparent. The production and sales of new energy vehicles maintain resilience, and the narrative of AI computing infrastructure using copper continues to ferment. However, the traditional construction and home appliance fields are significantly dragged down, with a copper pipe operating rate of only 62%. The demand side presents a fragmented pattern of “emerging with stories, traditional without increment”.
influencing factors
Firstly, the sustainability of mining constraints: If zero or even negative processing fees are confirmed in the long-term single TC negotiations in 2026, the joint production reduction of domestic smelters will shift from “possibility” to “reality”. Secondly, inventory siphoning under the expectation of US copper tariffs: COMEX inventory has nearly tripled year-on-year, global explicit inventory is concentrated in the United States, and available copper sources in non US regions continue to tighten. Thirdly, the negative feedback depth of high prices on demand: whether the collapse of cable operating rates spreads to more terminal areas determines whether the demand side can withstand supply contraction.
In summary, the solidity of the mining tight logic constitutes the core support for the bottom of copper prices, while the strength of the demand side’s “emerging hedging against traditional” is not yet sufficient to drive a trend breakthrough. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate strongly in November, but the hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and the further decline in operating rates after the end of the peak season pose downside risks. Pursuing higher prices requires caution, and a pullback to the lower edge of the range provides a good risk return ratio.

Since October, the domestic PP market has shown a positive trend, with prices of various grades of products increasing significantly. As of November 2nd, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing was quoted at 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.28% compared to early October.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In terms of international crude oil, the renewed tension in the Middle East has stimulated market concerns about international crude oil supply. Last month, news of ships catching fire in the Strait of Hormuz prompted investors to quickly price the risk of supply disruptions. The rapid return of geopolitical premium in oil prices has triggered a resonance rise in bulk commodities. The trading side actively increased its long positions in crude oil, and the expected increase in shipping insurance costs further amplified supply concerns, driving up high oil prices. At the same time, the support brought by the significant decline in US crude oil inventories in the early stage resonated with fundamental and geopolitical news, driving oil prices to break through key pressure levels. Affected by it, propylene also rose in tandem with crude oil. Especially since mid last month, the unit price of petrochemical plants has risen rapidly, reaching historical highs. Domestic thermal coal is strengthening due to the influence of climate cooling factors. Overall, the high cost value of PP has been the main driving force behind the recent increase in PP prices.
Supply side:
Recently, domestic PP enterprises have experienced significant stability and minor fluctuations in their equipment. The overall operating rate is close to 67%, which is relatively low. Recently, companies such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Ningbo Jinfa have successively implemented maintenance plans. In the future, companies such as Donghua Energy and Shanghai Petrochemical will have additional parking arrangements, and it is expected that production capacity losses will slightly increase. The current weekly average production is less than 700000 tons, and the social inventory position has declined, resulting in 560000 tons being at a low level. Overall, the return of production capacity is slow, and the expectation of future market contraction and low inventory provide some support for spot prices. The supply side still has sufficient support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
At the beginning of November, polypropylene consumption was in the afterglow of the traditional consumption peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”, while the e-commerce consumption festival drove the purchase and sales of home appliances and packaging, and the downstream market of the industry gradually followed suit. However, due to the high spot price of PP, the profit situation of buyers has been squeezed, and their acceptance of high priced goods is insufficient, resulting in a cautious overall trading atmosphere. The terminal enterprise strategy tends to be on-demand, with orders mostly being small and scattered. The enthusiasm for building warehouses on site is average, and inventory is generally low. The operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved narrowly, with downstream loads slightly increasing to around 44%. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PP.
Future forecast
In early November, the domestic PP market prices continued to rise. From a fundamental perspective, there has been a high increase in the cost side, while the demand side has a rigid demand pattern in terms of orders, and downstream operations are cautious. Analysts believe that the current PP market demand is suppressed by high prices, with limited volume and expectations of a narrow contraction in the supply side. However, with multiple products in the upstream industry chain rising, it is expected that the PP market will continue to strengthen in the short term.

This week (10.26-10.30), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fell, with an average market price of 15250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15100 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.98%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side
Although prices on the supply side have fallen below the cost lines of some factories, there has not been a significant reduction in operating rates in the main production areas, and the market’s spot supply is still relatively sufficient. The pattern of oversupply is the core factor suppressing the price decline this week.
Downstream demand on the demand side continues to be weak, and buyers generally hold a “buy up, not buy down” mentality, mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach. The market only maintains essential purchases, and the overall trading atmosphere is light.
Raw material side
The two core raw materials for magnesium smelting, 75 silicon iron and blue charcoal, showed a differentiation pattern of “weak silicon iron, stable blue charcoal, and hard coal price” this week. As of October 30th, the price of 75% silicon iron in Shaanxi has fallen to 5900 yuan/ton, while the price of blue charcoal small materials remains stable at 1090 yuan/ton, but the price of thermal coal is still running at a high level.
integrated forecasting
The current magnesium price is in a game stage of “weak fundamentals+oversold technical aspects”. It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to seek support near the integer threshold of 15000 yuan/ton next week. If factories voluntarily reduce production due to worsening losses in the later stage, or if downstream companies start centralized inventory replenishment after oversold, magnesium prices are expected to stabilize and rebound.

The PTA market in October showed an N-type trend of “rising, falling, and then rebounding”. As of October 29th, the average market price in East China was 7337 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the year, crude oil rose due to geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, coupled with centralized maintenance of PX facilities and the shutdown of multiple PTA facilities. The supply of spot goods tightened, and coupled with low social inventory, PTA quickly rose, with spot prices reaching a new high of over 7800 yuan/ton in nearly four years.
However, the upward momentum rapidly declined after the surge. As the geopolitical situation does not escalate significantly and crude oil prices fall from high levels, the high prices suppress downstream purchasing intentions. Polyester companies are cautious in pursuing price increases, and negative feedback from the industry chain is evident. As of October 22nd, the PTA East China spot benchmark price has fallen to 7050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.72% from the beginning of the month. From a fundamental perspective, the operating rate of the PTA industry has rebounded to about 68%, a significant increase from the low point in August, and there are expectations of a restart of inventory in multiple facilities such as Jiatong and Dushan, leading to a trend towards loose supply; However, the comprehensive load of downstream polyester is only 74%, the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 53%, and the feeding machine is 64%, both lower than the same period in previous years. The peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” is not fulfilling well, and the demand drag is obvious. PTA has entered a cumulative inventory pattern since September, with social inventory rising to 1.1 million tons, and the cumulative inventory trend is expected to continue in the fourth quarter.
Starting from the end of the month, the decline in PTA has slowed down and shown a slight rebound, mainly supported by: firstly, PTA processing fees have fallen from over 800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to around 400 yuan/ton, resulting in a significant compression in valuation; Secondly, the reduction of raw material profits has led to a significant recovery in polyester profits. The profits of long fibers, short fibers, and bottle chips have all improved, and the willingness of factories to increase their burden has increased. The polyester load is expected to rebound against the seasonal trend in November, and the accumulated inventory may narrow; Thirdly, PTA’s absolute inventory is not high.
Analysts believe that overall, PTA is likely to maintain a high and wide range of fluctuations in the short term, with limited room for deep declines. The positive factors come from the premium of crude oil and PX costs, as well as low inventory support, while the negative factors are concentrated in weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation cycles. In the future, special attention should be paid to the disturbance of the Middle East geopolitical situation on oil prices, the pace of PX and PTA plant restart, the recovery of Double Eleven orders, and the strength of polyester load recovery.