Since October, the domestic PP market has shown a positive trend, with prices of various grades of products increasing significantly. As of November 2nd, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing was quoted at 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.28% compared to early October.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In terms of international crude oil, the renewed tension in the Middle East has stimulated market concerns about international crude oil supply. Last month, news of ships catching fire in the Strait of Hormuz prompted investors to quickly price the risk of supply disruptions. The rapid return of geopolitical premium in oil prices has triggered a resonance rise in bulk commodities. The trading side actively increased its long positions in crude oil, and the expected increase in shipping insurance costs further amplified supply concerns, driving up high oil prices. At the same time, the support brought by the significant decline in US crude oil inventories in the early stage resonated with fundamental and geopolitical news, driving oil prices to break through key pressure levels. Affected by it, propylene also rose in tandem with crude oil. Especially since mid last month, the unit price of petrochemical plants has risen rapidly, reaching historical highs. Domestic thermal coal is strengthening due to the influence of climate cooling factors. Overall, the high cost value of PP has been the main driving force behind the recent increase in PP prices.
Supply side:
Recently, domestic PP enterprises have experienced significant stability and minor fluctuations in their equipment. The overall operating rate is close to 67%, which is relatively low. Recently, companies such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Ningbo Jinfa have successively implemented maintenance plans. In the future, companies such as Donghua Energy and Shanghai Petrochemical will have additional parking arrangements, and it is expected that production capacity losses will slightly increase. The current weekly average production is less than 700000 tons, and the social inventory position has declined, resulting in 560000 tons being at a low level. Overall, the return of production capacity is slow, and the expectation of future market contraction and low inventory provide some support for spot prices. The supply side still has sufficient support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
At the beginning of November, polypropylene consumption was in the afterglow of the traditional consumption peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”, while the e-commerce consumption festival drove the purchase and sales of home appliances and packaging, and the downstream market of the industry gradually followed suit. However, due to the high spot price of PP, the profit situation of buyers has been squeezed, and their acceptance of high priced goods is insufficient, resulting in a cautious overall trading atmosphere. The terminal enterprise strategy tends to be on-demand, with orders mostly being small and scattered. The enthusiasm for building warehouses on site is average, and inventory is generally low. The operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved narrowly, with downstream loads slightly increasing to around 44%. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PP.
Future forecast
In early November, the domestic PP market prices continued to rise. From a fundamental perspective, there has been a high increase in the cost side, while the demand side has a rigid demand pattern in terms of orders, and downstream operations are cautious. Analysts believe that the current PP market demand is suppressed by high prices, with limited volume and expectations of a narrow contraction in the supply side. However, with multiple products in the upstream industry chain rising, it is expected that the PP market will continue to strengthen in the short term.

This week (10.26-10.30), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fell, with an average market price of 15250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15100 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.98%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side
Although prices on the supply side have fallen below the cost lines of some factories, there has not been a significant reduction in operating rates in the main production areas, and the market’s spot supply is still relatively sufficient. The pattern of oversupply is the core factor suppressing the price decline this week.
Downstream demand on the demand side continues to be weak, and buyers generally hold a “buy up, not buy down” mentality, mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach. The market only maintains essential purchases, and the overall trading atmosphere is light.
Raw material side
The two core raw materials for magnesium smelting, 75 silicon iron and blue charcoal, showed a differentiation pattern of “weak silicon iron, stable blue charcoal, and hard coal price” this week. As of October 30th, the price of 75% silicon iron in Shaanxi has fallen to 5900 yuan/ton, while the price of blue charcoal small materials remains stable at 1090 yuan/ton, but the price of thermal coal is still running at a high level.
integrated forecasting
The current magnesium price is in a game stage of “weak fundamentals+oversold technical aspects”. It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to seek support near the integer threshold of 15000 yuan/ton next week. If factories voluntarily reduce production due to worsening losses in the later stage, or if downstream companies start centralized inventory replenishment after oversold, magnesium prices are expected to stabilize and rebound.

The PTA market in October showed an N-type trend of “rising, falling, and then rebounding”. As of October 29th, the average market price in East China was 7337 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the year, crude oil rose due to geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, coupled with centralized maintenance of PX facilities and the shutdown of multiple PTA facilities. The supply of spot goods tightened, and coupled with low social inventory, PTA quickly rose, with spot prices reaching a new high of over 7800 yuan/ton in nearly four years.
However, the upward momentum rapidly declined after the surge. As the geopolitical situation does not escalate significantly and crude oil prices fall from high levels, the high prices suppress downstream purchasing intentions. Polyester companies are cautious in pursuing price increases, and negative feedback from the industry chain is evident. As of October 22nd, the PTA East China spot benchmark price has fallen to 7050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.72% from the beginning of the month. From a fundamental perspective, the operating rate of the PTA industry has rebounded to about 68%, a significant increase from the low point in August, and there are expectations of a restart of inventory in multiple facilities such as Jiatong and Dushan, leading to a trend towards loose supply; However, the comprehensive load of downstream polyester is only 74%, the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 53%, and the feeding machine is 64%, both lower than the same period in previous years. The peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” is not fulfilling well, and the demand drag is obvious. PTA has entered a cumulative inventory pattern since September, with social inventory rising to 1.1 million tons, and the cumulative inventory trend is expected to continue in the fourth quarter.
Starting from the end of the month, the decline in PTA has slowed down and shown a slight rebound, mainly supported by: firstly, PTA processing fees have fallen from over 800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to around 400 yuan/ton, resulting in a significant compression in valuation; Secondly, the reduction of raw material profits has led to a significant recovery in polyester profits. The profits of long fibers, short fibers, and bottle chips have all improved, and the willingness of factories to increase their burden has increased. The polyester load is expected to rebound against the seasonal trend in November, and the accumulated inventory may narrow; Thirdly, PTA’s absolute inventory is not high.
Analysts believe that overall, PTA is likely to maintain a high and wide range of fluctuations in the short term, with limited room for deep declines. The positive factors come from the premium of crude oil and PX costs, as well as low inventory support, while the negative factors are concentrated in weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation cycles. In the future, special attention should be paid to the disturbance of the Middle East geopolitical situation on oil prices, the pace of PX and PTA plant restart, the recovery of Double Eleven orders, and the strength of polyester load recovery.

In the second half of October, the dichloromethane market showed a V-shaped curve of “sharp decline in mid month → rebound in late month”. As of October 28th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 3145 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.14% during the period.
Analysis of Core Driving Factors
Cost side: Cost support shifts from weak to strong
In the middle of the month, methanol prices plummeted rapidly, and the cost side’s support for high prices was the first to disintegrate; At the same time, after the price reached a high level, there was a clear lack of downstream acceptance, and traders’ willingness to ship at high prices increased, causing market sentiment to quickly turn bearish. In the latter half of the year, liquid chlorine violently rose, and the market quickly turned upwards. The local contraction on the supply side resonated with the strong driving force on the cost side, and the price of dichloromethane quickly rebounded.
Supply side: Shortage of spot resources and low inventory support
Mainly parked or continuously operating at low load. The overall inventory of the factory is low and there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory, which is also the core confidence for a rapid rebound after a sharp decline; But with the recovery of profits, there is an expectation of a rebound in the operation of some facilities, and the supply elasticity is gradually increasing, marginally easing the pattern of sustained tight supply.
On the demand side: there is a bottom line for essential needs and insufficient elasticity
Downstream R32 refrigerant is subject to quota constraints in the fourth quarter and the off-season demand for terminal refrigeration, resulting in a moderate level of operation and limited incremental growth; The orders for coatings, adhesives, and pharmaceutical solvents are flat, only for immediate use and procurement, and we refuse to stock up at high prices; Export orders are generally low, and overseas acceptance of high priced sources is not high, making it difficult to form incremental hedging against domestic pressure.
Future forecast
In the short term, the cost support for dichloromethane is still relatively strong, and the benefits of low factory inventory and reduced maintenance of some facilities are still present. The market has a certain resistance to decline, and the price is likely to maintain a strong oscillation pattern, but the momentum for further significant increases is limited.
The sustained high price of liquid chlorine is the most critical variable in this round of market trend. If liquid chlorine continues to strengthen, it will further push up the cost center and drive up the quotation; Once the rise of liquid chlorine slows down and rebounds, the cost side support weakens, and there is an expectation of a negative increase in the cumulative device, the supply increment will gradually be released, which will suppress the upward space of prices. The lack of sustained demand makes it difficult to support prices to break out of the trend and rise sharply.

From October 8th to October 27th, 2026, the domestic electrolytic manganese market first fell and then rose, with a narrow range of fluctuations overall. The average market price on October 8th was 18050 yuan/ton, and on October 27th it was 18150 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% during the cycle.
After the National Day holiday, market trading gradually recovered. In the initial stage, downstream price suppression sentiment was heavy, and spot prices slightly weakened. With the rise of smelting prices and the emergence of cost support, the market rebounded slightly after hitting bottom. On exchange transactions mostly focused on long orders, while individual order activity was average, and the market atmosphere was strong. The overall fluctuation range of the electrolytic manganese market is limited, and there is a clear game of long and short in the market. Cost and production reduction expectations form support, but weak downstream demand suppresses the increase, and transactions are mainly based on long-term contract demand, with weak individual trading.
In terms of manganese ore: In October, the external quotation for manganese ore was slightly increased, and the cost of arrival at the port provided bottom support for electrolytic manganese. There is sufficient circulation of spot manganese ore at the port, and the upward space for ore prices is limited, making it difficult to drive the price of electrolytic manganese to rise significantly. The main production areas are gradually entering a dry season, with rising water and electricity costs and increased production costs for smelting enterprises. The profits of some small and medium-sized factories are being compressed, and the willingness to reduce production is increasing; But the mineral resources continue to arrive, with no obvious supply gap, and the cost side only serves as a bottom support, with insufficient upward driving force.
As the core raw material unloading port of the Southwest electrolytic manganese production area, Qinzhou Port in the south has continued to receive manganese ore this month, and the port inventory remains at a medium to high level. The ore market is relatively firm, and the price difference between high and low quality manganese ore remains stable. However, under the pressure of losses from downstream smelters, there is a significant pressure on procurement prices. Port spot prices show a pattern of firm quotes and weak actual transactions. Traders’ shipping pace has slowed down, and they mostly ship according to the demand of downstream smelters. The lack of sustained transaction support for the continuous rise of mineral prices.
Supply side: The performance of production in major production areas such as Guangxi, Yunnan Guizhou, and Hunan is differentiated, while large smelting enterprises maintain normal production schedules and prioritize the delivery of long-term contract orders; Due to factors such as high electricity prices and weak profits during the dry season, some small and medium-sized smelters have taken the initiative to reduce load and conduct periodic maintenance to control production. Manufacturers have a clear mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices, and there is a shortage of low-priced sources of goods. However, there has been no concentrated production stoppage in the industry, social inventory remains neutral, and there is no substantial shortage of supply; If the market continues to rise, the expectation of incremental resumption of production will also increase, suppressing the upward space of prices, and the temporary supply contraction will be difficult to drive the trend upward.
On the demand side: In October, the downstream stainless steel industry saw an increase in maintenance and load reduction production capacity, resulting in a slower pace of finished product destocking. The procurement attitude was cautious, and there was a widespread practice of price cutting in bidding, with a focus on long-term procurement for essential needs and a weak willingness to replenish scattered inventory; The downstream demand for lithium manganese oxide batteries has not recovered as expected, downstream enterprises have low production, limited new orders, and it is difficult to form a strong driving force. Traders tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach and maintain a low level of enthusiasm for chasing price increases. Export inquiries are light, and overall demand support is weak, which remains the main factor restricting the strength of the market.

Market forecast: The short-term supply-demand game pattern of electrolytic manganese continues, and the willingness to raise prices at the smelting end is still present. However, the weak downstream demand situation is difficult to improve quickly, and it is expected that electrolytic manganese will maintain a narrow range oscillation trend. The upward pressure comes from the limited acceptance of high priced sources downstream and the continuous price suppression; The support below relies on the cost of manganese ore and the expected reduction in production during the dry season. In the future, the focus will be on changes in production in the main production areas, the pace of resuming stainless steel production, monthly bidding pricing, and the arrival of manganese ore. If there is no concentrated recovery in downstream demand, electrolytic manganese will find it difficult to break out of the trend market and will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.

1、 Price trend
As of October 23rd, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China is 1735 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 1735 yuan/ton on October 19th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, there was a slight adjustment in the domestic urea market price. According to customs data, there will be a significant increase in domestic urea exports in September 2026, boosting the urea market. As of October 23rd, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1710-1750 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1710-1750 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1690-1750 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1690-1730 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1770-1790 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the urea market is currently well supplied with high inventory levels. In terms of demand, the current industrial and agricultural demand is weak, and downstream procurement demand is limited, with a focus on replenishment for essential needs. The urea market is oversupplied, putting pressure on urea manufacturers to ship.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that in recent days, the positive impact of urea exports exceeding expectations has weakened, and the upward momentum of the urea market is insufficient, with insufficient support from the demand side. It is expected that the short-term domestic urea market will mainly experience price fluctuations and consolidation.

Copper prices have slightly decreased this week. As of October 23rd, the copper price was reported at 108765 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.78% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 27.27%.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 280674 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 0.20% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the US September CPI was 3.7% year-on-year and the core CPI was 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. Energy prices were the main driving force, and the market’s pricing for a 25BP interest rate hike in December rose to over 75%. The US dollar strengthened in sync with real interest rates, directly suppressing the financial attributes of copper. The interest rate meeting at the end of October is likely to remain unchanged, but the trading logic of “maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time” is still strengthening. Coupled with the situation in the Middle East and the weakening of the Asia Pacific equity market, the macro background of copper price pressure remains unchanged.
Supply side: The spot TC of copper concentrate has further dropped to -241.51 US dollars per dry ton, and the negative value depth continues to expand. The structural contradiction of tight raw materials in the smelting side shows no signs of easing. The concentrated maintenance of domestic smelters in October and November has further intensified the pressure on concentrate consumption. But the key change in the supply narrative this week is the landing of labor management negotiations in Escondida, the lifting of strike risks, and the end of the Centinela strike. The extreme supply disturbance premium that was previously included in the price is facing concentrated backlash, and the qualitative pressure of “tight but not lacking” on the mining side outweighs the narrative of “shortage realization”.
On the demand side: After the holiday, the operating rate of refined copper poles rebounded to 73.27%, and the operating rate of wires and cables was 69.79%, showing a significant improvement compared to the previous period. Power grid investment is still the most determined basic demand. However, the high copper prices also have a clear impact on the downstream willingness to replenish inventory – terminal purchases are mainly for essential needs, and proactive replenishment is weak, while traditional fields such as real estate and home appliances continue to be a drag. There is no risk of collapse on the demand side, but there is also a lack of elasticity to amplify positive feedback in price declines.
Influencing factors:
The true marginal pricing variable for this week is not in the mining sector, but in the ‘geographic redistribution’ of inventory. The price difference between COMEX and LME has narrowed from a peak of about $3000/ton to about $310/ton, significantly reducing the arbitrage economy of moving copper to the United States. LME’s US warehouse inventory flowed in 29000 tons per day, and the total inventory rose to 273000 tons, directly falsifying the narrative of “copper shortage in non US regions”. At the same time, the domestic social inventory has been reduced, and the spot premium in East China has widened to 710 yuan/ton. The mismatch of weak external and strong internal inventory has provided stronger bottom support for Shanghai copper than London copper.
In summary, the decline in copper prices this week is essentially the result of “tariff arbitrage premium reduction+macroeconomic tightening expectation resonance”, rather than a trend deterioration in supply and demand fundamentals. At the macro level, before the release of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate and PCE data, funds are unlikely to have a radical willingness to go long, and the clearance of tariff premiums has not completely ended. Short term copper prices are likely to remain weak and volatile. However, the deep negative value of TC in the mining sector, the depletion of domestic social inventory, and the widening of spot premiums have jointly established clear bottom constraints, resulting in a low probability of losing the 100000 mark.

Entering October, the domestic PTA spot market price has emerged from a trend of first rising and then fluctuating and falling, presenting an overall game pattern of “strong cost support and weak demand drag”. As of October 22nd, the spot benchmark price of PTA in East China was 7100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.10% from the beginning of the month.
In early October, crude oil rose due to geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, coupled with centralized maintenance of PX facilities and the shutdown of multiple PTA facilities in China. The supply of spot goods tightened, and coupled with continuous destocking in the early stage and low social inventory, PTA quickly rose, with spot prices reaching a new high of over 7800 yuan/ton in nearly four years, with a significant increase in basis and premium.
After the surge, the market quickly diverged and the upward momentum gradually declined. With high prices suppressing downstream purchasing intentions, polyester enterprises have a weak willingness to pursue price increases, and negative feedback from the industry chain is evident. The comprehensive production of polyester remains at around 74%, significantly lower than the peak season level in previous years. The weaving operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is less than 60%, and the terminal textile orders are lower than expected. The fulfillment of the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season is weak, and downstream demand is mainly based on immediate use and procurement, and they dare not stock up in large quantities. At the same time, some maintenance facilities are planned to restart, and the market is shifting from tight balance to marginal accumulation. Processing fees have fallen from high levels, and prices have entered a high volatility range, with fluctuations mainly following the rhythm of crude oil.
Analysts believe that in the short term, PTA is likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations. Positive support comes from the cost premium of crude oil and PX, as well as the current low absolute inventory level, which limits the potential for deep decline. But concentrated in weak terminal demand, polyester profits are under pressure. Once raw materials continue to remain high, there is a possibility of further expansion of downstream production cuts, which will continue to suppress the rebound height.
The future still needs to pay attention to the disturbance of the Middle East geopolitical situation on crude oil prices, the pace of PX and PTA maintenance and restart, the speed of supply increment release, and the demand side textile terminal orders. The recovery of orders before and after Double Eleven will directly affect the pace of polyester production and raw material procurement.

This week, the domestic melamine market continued its downward trend, with the price center steadily shifting downwards. On October 21st, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37% from 6325.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month;
The synchronization of upstream raw material urea is weak. On October 21st, the benchmark price of urea was 1740.00 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 2.25% during the month, and the cost support continued to loosen.
Fundamental analysis
Supply side: Adequate spot supply, high pressure on enterprise shipments
The domestic melamine industry has maintained a relatively high level of production, with early maintenance equipment gradually resuming production, and there is ample supply of spot goods in the market. Some manufacturers have accumulated inventory and have a strong willingness to sell at a discounted price. Regional factory quotes have gradually decreased, and low-priced goods have emerged in the market, further dragging down the overall price center.
Cost side: simultaneous weakening of urea and weakened cost support
The upstream urea market is running weakly in sync, with a loose supply and demand pattern for urea, weak demand in industry and agriculture, and a continuous downward shift in price focus. The production cost of melamine has also fallen. However, the decline rate of melamine products is faster, and the loosening of costs has not offset the negative demand, but instead compressed the profit margins of production enterprises.
Demand side: The off-season for downstream sheet metal industry is approaching, and procurement is being cautious
The main downstream industries of melamine are the sheet metal and decorative panel industries. The traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season expectations have fallen through, resulting in insufficient terminal orders and low operating loads of downstream sheet metal factories. The core factor suppressing the market trend is that downstream enterprises maintain essential procurement and take as needed, unwilling to stock up in advance, resulting in a sluggish market trading atmosphere and insufficient follow-up of buying orders.
Outlook for the coming period
In the short term, upstream urea is unlikely to have a strong upward drive, and cost support is relatively weak; The downstream sheet metal industry will gradually enter the winter off-season, and terminal demand is difficult to significantly recover. Coupled with sufficient spot supply, the melamine market may maintain a weak and volatile pattern, and there is still a possibility of a slight downward trend in price. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to downstream sheet metal production, raw material urea trends, and changes in export orders.

On October 20, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9580 yuan/ton, which increased by 30 yuan/ton, or 0.31%, compared to October 13 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9550 yuan/ton).
1、 Trend analysis
In mid October, the domestic silicon metal 441 # market showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, with a range of fluctuations after experiencing a slight increase. Entering the middle of the year, the market for metal silicon 441 # has been experiencing two consecutive days of upward movement, with many regions in China raising the price of metal silicon 441 # by around 50-100 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market experienced a slight correction and then fluctuated. As of October 20th, the domestic market price reference for metal silicon 441 # is around 9250-9850 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: Currently, the performance of metal silicon raw materials and costs is relatively strong. The prices of electricity and raw materials such as petroleum coke and silicon coal are at a high level, which provides increased cost support for metal silicon. In addition, the cost of automobile transportation has also increased, thus providing a bottom line for the metal silicon market in terms of cost.
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall supply of metallic silicon in the market is tight, and some suitable spot goods are in short supply. The overall increase in the supply of metallic silicon is limited, and the overall weekly operating expectations of the downstream polycrystalline silicon market have slightly decreased. The weekly operating expectations of organic silicon remain stable, and the weekly operating expectations of aluminum alloy have slightly increased. The overall demand increment is average, and downstream users mostly purchase and transact according to demand. The transmission of metallic silicon supply and demand is mainly mild.
3、 Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic silicon metal market is relatively mild. In the short term, it is expected that the overall supply increment in the market will still be limited, and downstream digestion of early inventory or replenishment of just needed inventory will be the main focus. Business Society’s silicon metal data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly operate in a range of fluctuations, and specific attention needs to be paid to the resumption of production in some regions and downstream production situation.