Since July, the domestic market price of light rare earth has been rising continuously. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy has continued to rise, and the market performance of light rare earth is strong. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on July 10 was 341 points, unchanged with yesterday, 65.90% lower than 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 25.83% higher than 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of July 10, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 293000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.34% in July; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 369000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.27% in July. Neodymium oxide, neodymium metal, etc. have increased to varying degrees, but the prices of praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal have fallen.

In recent years, the domestic rare earth industry demand has improved, with obvious bullish mentality of the domestic rare earth industry, and the merchants are reluctant to sell, so the market sentiment is strong. In addition, with the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers for stock increases, and the prices of praseodymium and neodymium rare earth continue to rise, and the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level. In 2020, China’s first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total control indicators are 66600 tons and 63500 tons, respectively, 6000 tons more than that in 2019. The first batch of data in 2020 slightly increased compared with the same batch in 2019, but still lower than the same batch of indicators in 2018. This is in line with the industry insiders have been calling for increasing the supply of resources, domestic light rare earth market prices rose slightly.

In the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan, the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the annual output is relatively large, which is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Considering that Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth, once the collection and storage plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a great impact on the supply and demand tightening and price rise of heavy rare earth such as dysprosium and terbium. However, in recent years, the floor trading has declined, heavy rare earth prices have slightly reversed, and the terbium series prices have risen to a high level, and the pressure of continuous rise is great; in addition, with the resumption of construction and production, the terminal new energy vehicle market is picking up, and the heavy rare earth market price is mainly fluctuating, so there is still a possibility of a small adjustment.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. The favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. At the same time, Sino US relations are somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, the demand is improving, and the market price of light rare earth is rising.

Recently, domestic demand for rare earth has increased, but the market price of heavy rare earth has dropped slightly. Analysts from business agency expect that the market price of rare earth will remain mainly volatile in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

Since the beginning of the year, the copper price fell to the lowest point of 36560 yuan / ton on March 23 this year, and then continued to rebound. As of July 9, it rebounded by nearly 40 points. The current copper price is 50620 yuan / ton, up 1.51% compared with the previous trading day, 3.24% higher than the beginning of the year, and 9.46% higher than the same period of the same year. On July 9, LME copper rose 1.40% to $6323 at the end of the Asian market. Shanghai copper’s main force rose after the opening, closing at 50700 yuan, up 1.81%.

2、 Market analysis

Increased supply risk

Chile’s recent outbreak of the epidemic, Chile’s mining Minister stressed that miners’ health is better than copper production overnight. Chile’s National Association of mining workers said that workers in large copper enterprises had more than 3500 confirmed cases, and the trade union called for production suspension. The Chilean copper trade union is considering seeking a two-week industry wide shutdown. The chairman of the Federation of trade unions of Antofagasta mining company said that seven trade unions representing about 80% of the workers and contractors of Chile’s copper mines were discussing whether to formally request the government to stop all Chilean copper mines for 14 days. If the resolution of the copper trade union to stop production of all copper mines for 14 days is finally passed, the production will be affected by more than 200000 tons, which will have a great influence on the market.

However, at present, the government has only replaced workers in two shifts to meet the needs of trade unions without affecting copper production. Moreover, Chile’s mines are mostly located in the northern desert, far from the densely populated center. The political situation in Chile also makes the Chilean government more likely to maintain mine production as much as possible. China mainly imports copper concentrates from Chile and Peru. At present, the impact of the epidemic situation in Peru, the largest importing country, has been improving, but the logistics problem is still prominent. Other import places, such as Africa, have little impact at present.

Recently, the supply risk of Chile’s mines is relatively high. China’s copper concentrate dependence on foreign countries is around 80%, and 50% of the 80% comes from South America. The supply speculation promotes the copper market to continue to rise.

Copper inventory reduction

Copper stocks are also shrinking. Domestic copper inventory fell 70% from the year’s high and 19% year-on-year. Favorable ore end, superimposed reserve expectations, good fundamentals, so that copper prices close to the high year ago.

Orders of processing enterprises are not optimistic

Among the more than 40 copper processing enterprises in East China and North China, most of the feedback orders are not optimistic and dare not keep bullish on the copper price. Some enterprises even said that they had no orders in May and had already rested in June. Only a few copper alloy enterprises had relatively good orders. In the case that domestic refined copper output continues to increase instead of falling, the demand side orders can not be effectively alleviated. Even if the spot copper price rises with the lead time, the shipholders will also significantly discount the shipment, and the situation of price with price but without market will be prolonged.

3、 Future prospects

In view of the above situation, the copper analysts of the nonferrous metals branch of the business association believe that: the macro expectations for good and the supply side tightening expectations resonate, and the copper prices remain relatively strong in the short term, but be wary of the off-season risks of domestic demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 9, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was around 17466 yuan / ton. Compared with the first day, the average price decreased by 67 yuan / ton or 0.38%. Compared with June 1, the average price increased by 1933 yuan / ton, or 12.45%. Since the beginning of June, the maximum amplitude of silicone DMC is 12.88%.

The game between supply and demand has become the key at the end of the month after three weeks of rising in June

In the past six months, the domestic silicone DMC market has experienced a three-week continuous rise of more than 12% since the beginning of June due to the low operating rate, the reduction of available supply sources of factories, and the favorable downstream demand atmosphere. After the end of June, the downstream demand showed signs of weakening, the market price stopped rising and stabilized, and some regional markets were mixed with ups and downs. The market turbulence led to the aggravation of the wait-and-see mood in the downstream. However, the inventory of silicone DMC is still low, and the supply pressure is not great. Therefore, most manufacturers’ quotations are still firm. The market situation quickly rebounded in the end of the month, but most of them were factory prices. The market shock sounded an alarm for the silicone DMC market in July.

Silicone DMC demand hindered in July

In July, the downstream demand of silicone DMC has been weakening. In addition, the operating rate of the plant has been improved. Although the existing inventory is low, it is difficult to hide the situation that the market is weak. The market of silicone DMC continues to go up, and the trend is obviously insufficient. The primary task of factories is to stabilize the current price. However, due to the deadlock between supply and demand, downstream shipment was hindered and inquiries were scarce. In the past few days, inventory of some factories was gradually accumulated, and it was difficult to keep the price stable. The offer dropped slightly, ranging from 200-300 yuan / ton. On the 6th, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC was 17366 yuan / ton, down 170 yuan / ton compared with 1 day. However, most of the existing DMC inventory of most factories is still low, so most of the manufacturers’ quotations remain firm. On the following 8 days, the market adjusted slightly to the average price of 17466 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream ex factory quotation of silicone DMC is 17000-17800 yuan / ton, and a small part of high-end quotation is 18000 yuan / ton. However, the market trading atmosphere is not good and new orders are rare.

It is understood that: the following is the current major enterprises silicone DMC prices and plant start-up (for reference only)

Enterprise name: silicone total capacity price (tax included) plant operation

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd., 340000 tons / year, 17500 yuan / ton, full load operation, purified water delivery price

Zhejiang Zhongtian 120000 T / a 18000 yuan / T unit runs smoothly and the water purification acceptance price

150000t / A in Jinling, Shandong Province

Jiangxi Xinghuo 400000 T / a 17800 yuan / T unit operating load 90% of purified water acceptance delivery price

Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd., 80000 tons / year, 17000 yuan / ton, stable operation, clean water cash delivery price

Hubei Xingfa 320000 T / a 17800 yuan / T three sets of fully opened purified water acceptance price

Inner Mongolia hengyecheng 240000 / T 17700 yuan / T unit starts smoothly, clean water acceptance delivery price

Short term market is hard to be optimistic

At present, the shipment of silicone oil silicone in the downstream is not smooth, the transaction is cold, and the market trend is mainly horizontal. The resistance of the industry to high price silicone DMC is increasing, and the wait-and-see sentiment is growing. Therefore, the short-term trend of silicone DMC is difficult to be optimistic, and the profits are not good. To the manufacturers, the price stability has been weak, and the market of silicone DMC in the future market has a big decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 4766 yuan / ton on June 1, 4800 yuan / ton on June 30, and the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 rose by 0.70% in June. The highest price of chlorinated paraffin 52 this month is 4866 yuan / ton, and the lowest price is 4766 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The chlorinated paraffin market was mixed in June. At the beginning of the month, chlorinated paraffin rose slightly due to raw material fluctuation. However, there is no improvement in the demand side, and the downstream side is mainly wait-and-see. In the middle of the month, the cost of chlorinated paraffin increased slightly. With the increase of cost pressure and the decrease of profit, most of the manufacturers mainly consume inventory. The demand of downstream customers is not good, so we should take more goods on demand. At the end of the month, demand weakened, trading was not smooth, chlorinated paraffin market fell. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5200 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 4000-4800 yuan / ton, and that in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4400-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4900 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4200-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

In June, the raw material market was mainly operated at a high level. In the early stage, the price of raw material liquid wax remained stable, and the market purchased more on demand. The mainstream price of raw material liquid chlorine market was running smoothly, and the prices of some enterprises rebounded and increased. The downstream purchase is not active and the transaction is general. In the later stage, the price of raw material liquid wax remained stable, and the cost support was limited. The raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated steadily and slightly, and the price rise was hindered. The downstream demand is limited and the transaction situation is poor.

3、 Future forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analysts of business agency believe that the chlorinated paraffin market fluctuated slightly in June, and the overall market was stable. The raw materials are in firm operation, the demand of downstream customers is less, and the transaction is general. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in July. It is suggested to pay attention to real-time market changes.

The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on July 7 was 863.33 yuan / ton, while that on August 8 was 866.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.39%. The current price was down 0.76% month on month, and the current price was 24.42% lower than last year.

Recently, the domestic market price of formaldehyde has risen slightly. As of July 8, the mainstream factory quotation in Central China is about 950 yuan / ton, that of mainstream manufacturers in North China is 750 yuan / ton, and that in East China is 890 yuan / ton. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons, formaldehyde content of 37% and load of 50%. Recently, the market of formaldehyde in Shandong has risen slightly. The start-up of formaldehyde enterprises is basically stable, the market supply is fair, and the trading atmosphere is general, and the formaldehyde market is rising slightly.

Upstream methanol situation: the methanol market shows regional differences. Some units in Northwest China are shut down for maintenance, and some upstream factories are reluctant to sell. In addition, methanol futures prices are rising, and manufacturers actively push up the price. In terms of inventory, the port and inland inventory accumulated again this week, and the import volume remained at the level of 1 million tons in the later stage. It was hopeless to go to the warehouse in the short term, and the high inventory continued to suppress the methanol price; the demand side was mainly stable, and it was difficult to increase significantly in the short term. The overall high inventory impact maintenance is good, and the domestic methanol market is in a volatile situation.

The downstream wood panel entered the traditional off-season, the terminal demand continued to shrink, the market trading atmosphere was relatively mild, the formaldehyde enterprise shipment was positive, the upstream strong pull up, the market rose slightly.

Recently, the upstream methanol price fluctuated upward, and under the cost support, formaldehyde enterprises passively pulled up. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency predict that the domestic formaldehyde price will mainly rise in the near future.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, the price of bromine in Shandong continued to be weak. As of July 8, the average price of bromine in Shandong was about 26555 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.24% compared with the beginning of the month, and a sharp drop of 17.75% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: Recently, some enterprises in Shandong Province have stopped their equipment, and some enterprises in Shandong Province have shut down, resulting in a decline in the spot supply in the market. The enterprise’s inventory pressure is not big, which has a certain positive support for the bromine price. However, the downstream demand is flat, which has not fundamentally changed the situation of oversupply in the industry. At present, mainstream bromine enterprises offer about 26000-27000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the sulfur market is running stably, the supply of enterprises is stable, the operators operate cautiously, and the trading is relatively flat, at present, it is about 653 yuan / ton; the sulfuric acid market is in shock and adjustment, some sulfuric acid manufacturers are under operating, the load is reduced, the sulfuric acid supply is tight, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, at present, about 412 yuan / ton; the domestic soda ash market is weak, the market atmosphere is light, and the downstream market needs Poor recovery, enterprise inventory pressure, active shipment, at present about 1256 yuan / ton. The main downstream flame retardant market of bromine is running at a low negative rate, and the demand for bromine is relatively light. Most enterprises mainly ship in stock, and lack of support for bromine price. The pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates and other industries start to operate smoothly. They are obviously bearish on bromine and are cautious in overall trading.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of the bromine industry of the business society believe that due to the poor demand of the downstream market, the expected decline of bromine supply has not led to the reversal of the situation of oversupply in the industry. The contradiction between supply and demand is still obvious, and it is expected to remain weak in a short period of time.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 7, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6966.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on July 1, the average price decreased by 67 yuan / ton, or 0.95%; compared with the price on June 1, the price increased by 733 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.76%, and the maximum amplitude from June 1 to July 7 was 40.64%.

In July, the butanone market was weak and stable, but fell a few days later

In June, the butanone market experienced a sharp rise, but the market demand could not be followed up after the price skyrocketed. Since the end of June, the market price of butanone began to decline gradually. By the end of June, the market price dropped to the equilibrium point and basically maintained stable operation.

In July, the overall butanone market remained stable for the time being, the market was weak, the inquiry atmosphere remained cold, the support of downstream demand was limited, the factory inventory pressure was large, the operators were more cautious, and the just in demand delivery was limited. As of July 7, the offer of butanone in some regions dropped slightly by 100-200 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the reference price of butanone factory quotation was 6966.67 yuan / ton, with an average price of 67 yuan / ton or 0.95% lower than that on July 1. Compared with the highest price in half a year (the market reference quotation of 8766.67 yuan / ton on June 12), it decreased by 1800 yuan / ton, or 20.53%, compared with the price of 6.6% Compared with the market price on January 1, the price increased by 733 yuan / ton, or 11.76%. At present, the butanone market in South China has been stable for the time being, with the reference ex factory price of butanone at 7050-7150 yuan / ton; the butanone market in East China has fallen, with the reference price of butanone at 7000-7050 yuan / ton; compared with the end of last week (3 days), it has dropped by 100 yuan / ton; the butanone market in North China has fallen by 6700-6750 yuan / ton; compared with last weekend (3 days), it has dropped by 100 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply and demand, since the beginning of July, the overhaul of butanone plants has increased gradually, and the inventory pressure of the plant has decreased since this week. So far, the improvement of downstream demand side is not obvious, and the overall market atmosphere is limited.

On the upstream side, in June, the LPG civil market was adjusted for many times, with a small overall rise. In July, the market was stable and fell slightly, with the average price falling by 10-30 yuan / ton. As of July 7, the reference price of liquefied gas was 2750 yuan / ton, which was 0.36% lower than that on July 1 (2760.00). At present, the price of liquefied gas in North China is temporarily stable, and the quoted price of Civil liquefied gas of Luoyang Petrochemical Company is 2600 yuan / ton (excluding packaging). The LPG market in Shandong remains stable, and some refineries have reduced their prices slightly. At present, the reference quotation of civil LPG of Qingdao refinery is 2650 yuan / ton, and that of Jinan refinery is 2850 yuan / ton..

According to the current market situation of butanone, it is expected that the butanone market will maintain a low level in the near future. However, it is heard that the butanone inventory is mainly in the secondary market. Therefore, in recent days, due to the low inventory of their own and low butanone parking operation rate of many factories, the dealers want to increase the ex factory quotation of butanone. I wonder whether the future market may drive the overall market of butanone higher and the specific trend We still need to pay more attention to the relationship between supply and demand.

On July 7, the price of silicon metal (441) stopped falling and stabilized. According to the data of business agency, on July 7, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 10500 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.08% compared with the average market price of 10491.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (7.1); compared with the average market price of 11833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, the decrease was 11.27%.

The price of 441 silicon is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 10100-10200 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 10300-10400 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 10100-10200 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 11000-11200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 10700-10800 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu port is 10400-10600 yuan / ton 。

Production capacity in some areas is slightly reduced

It is reported that affected by electricity price factors, the metal silicon operating rate in Fujian Province has moved down significantly. At present, the price of silicon metal is low, and the preferential electricity price is due at the end of June, and the electricity price rises by nearly 0.1 yuan / kW to 0.56 yuan / kWh. The production cost of silicon metal is relatively high. In the market environment of difficult shipment and profit squeeze, the number of silicon plants in Fujian Province is sharply reduced.

Social inventory is relatively stable

At present, the social inventory of metal silicon is relatively stable. There are about 46000-48000 tons in Huangpu, Tianjin and Kunming. There is no obvious stock in port warehouse. The quantity of import and export is basically dynamic balance, and traders are not willing to stock up.

Exports are still poor

According to the customs data, in May 2020, the export volume of silicon metal was 31000 tons, a decrease of 36.2% on a month on month basis and a decrease of 53.6% on a year-on-year basis. Since March, the export volume of silicon metal has continued to decline, with 82000 tons in March and 49000 tons in April. The export volume in May was 31000 tons, which was the lowest in a single month in recent eight years.

In the future market, the main task is to maintain stability

At present, the supply and demand is stable, and the weak export situation is expected to gradually improve. Based on the short-term downward movement of silicon metal price in the early stage and the consideration of cost factors, manufacturers have strong willingness to support prices. It is expected that the metal silicon will maintain stable operation in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE in East China showed an obvious upward trend in June. Among them, the trend of LLDPE in East China was twists and turns, while the trend of LDPE and HDPE was continuously rising. The overall trading atmosphere of the market in June was good. The rising range of the three major PE varieties was 250-900 yuan / T. among them, LDPE in East China was the most prominent, with a monthly increase of 8.09%.

Average price range of regional varieties and specifications on June 1 to June 30

East China LLDPE 7042 6750.00 yuan / ton 6933.33 yuan / ton + 2.72%

LDPE 2426h 7725.00 yuan / ton ￥ 8350.00 yuan / ton + 8.09% in East China

In East China, HDPE 5000S 7216.67 yuan / ton: 7783.33 yuan / ton + 7.85%

In June, the price of polyethylene market rose mainly, with an increase range of 250-900 yuan / ton. The main reasons for the increase are as follows: 1. The maintenance volume increased this month, and the market supply decreased. Some units of Maoming Petrochemical, Lanzhou Petrochemical, Fujian united and Dushanzi Petrochemical were shut down for maintenance, which brought benefits to local areas. According to the data, in June, the domestic polyethylene plant lost nearly 280000 tons due to maintenance; 2. The international oil price showed an upward trend, which was beneficial to the market mentality, and the raw material ethylene followed the rise, which brought obvious support to the PE market in terms of cost; 3. The strong performance of Liansu futures boosted the market mentality. However, affected by seasonal factors, the operating rate of agricultural film is about 15%, and the demand for plastic film is low season, the demand for greenhouse film is flat, and the terminal demand is general. However, on the whole, there were many positive factors in June. The petrochemical enterprises continuously raised the ex factory prices, and the merchants’ mentality was better. Most of them went with the market, and the prices were pushed up.

Raw material ethylene market continued to rise in June, with an increase of 24.98%, which brought favorable support to the polyethylene market. As of July 26, CFR closed at $845-855 per ton in Northeast Asia and $785-795 in South East Asia. European ethylene market price rose, as of the 26th, the European ethylene market price was FD, northwest Europe closed at 720-730 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 675-683 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. rose to 275-293 U.S. dollars / ton as of the 26th. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States is mainly on the rise. The demand of the whole ethylene market is better, and the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is relatively sufficient.

At present, downstream factories are against high prices, and their mentality is more cautious. However, the maintenance season is not over, and some manufacturers’ equipment maintenance has brought support to local areas. The downstream gradually returned to work and production, the operating rate increased significantly compared with the previous period, and the market demand showed signs of recovery. Internationally, the trend of crude oil and ethylene is better, with some support in terms of cost, and the positive is greater than the negative. It is expected that the polyethylene market may still rise in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on April 1 was 2083 yuan / ton, and that on June 30 was 1866 yuan / ton. The overall price of powdered monoammonium phosphate fell by 10.40% in the second quarter. The lowest price in the quarter was 1856 yuan / ton, and the highest price was 2083 yuan / ton.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on April 1 was 2225 yuan / ton, and that on June 30 was 2145 yuan / ton. The overall price of diammonium phosphate fell by 3.58% in the second quarter. In the quarter, the lowest price is 2145 yuan / ton, and the highest price is 2225 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Due to poor demand, monoammonium phosphate fell sharply in the second quarter. In April, the raw material market of ammonium phosphate was not good, and the downstream demand decreased, resulting in the continuous downturn of ammonium phosphate trend. Monoammonium phosphate turned into off season, and the trading volume decreased. The market of ammonium phosphate raw materials rose and fell in May, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer was insufficient. Monoammonium phosphate received some orders in advance, and the inventory pressure decreased. In June, the market of ammonium phosphate raw materials rose, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer was still weak. The amount of pre-sale orders of monoammonium phosphate was large, and the price increased slightly. Monoammonium phosphate industry is more optimistic, but the downstream compound fertilizer follow-up is insufficient, against high prices. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan maintained stable operation, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at about 1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Due to fierce export competition, diammonium phosphate market fell in the second quarter. In April, domestic demand for diammonium phosphate decreased and gradually turned to export, with lower price. In May, the domestic demand for diammonium phosphate decreased, and the supply decreased, resulting in fierce export competition. Domestic demand for diammonium phosphate did not improve in June, and most of them were sold on demand. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2150-2250 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui Province is 2200-2350 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2250-2400 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2400 yuan / ton.

In April, the market of raw material phosphate ore continued to operate stably, and the market remained stable. There was no fluctuation in the market as a whole. The factory continued to supply old orders, and the increment of new orders was still small. The trend of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is low, and the transaction focus continues to fall. The domestic market of raw material sulfur is stable and upward, and the price of sulfur at port rises. However, there is no large deal in the market. The shippers in Hong Kong are not in a hurry to ship, and the buyers follow the market. The quotation of domestic refineries is slightly adjusted. In May, the overall weakness of phosphate ore market was downward, the market was weak and the downstream support was insufficient. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprise market is not clear, weak operation, prices fell slightly. Compound fertilizer enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw material ammonium phosphate, reducing demand and increasing equipment maintenance. In June, the overall market of phosphate ore in China is weak, and the market in many regions is weak and stable. With the arrival of the traditional off-season, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. Domestic sulfur inventory is low and supply is reduced.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of business club believe that in the off-season of phosphate fertilizer in the second quarter, the market of raw materials for ammonium phosphate is not good, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is weakened, and there is no good support, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of ammonium phosphate. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will slightly improve in the third quarter, and the market trend will be stable. It is suggested to pay attention to the introduction of fertilizer policy in autumn.