PA66 weakened again this week (July 1-7). On July 1st, the market reference price was 18366.67 yuan/ton. From July 1st to 6th, the price remained stable, and on July 7th, the market fell again to 18033.33 yuan/ton, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.81%. Since the high point of 20766.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of June, the cumulative decline this year has exceeded 11.56%, showing a weak downward trend of “week beginning stalemate, weekend breaking and weakening”, and the price has once again broken through the stage low.

influencing factors
Cost side: Upstream adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine continued to operate weakly this week, with no significant rebound momentum in raw materials. The comprehensive production cost of PA66 continued to decline, and the bottom support strength continued to weaken. International crude oil prices have fluctuated downward, with geopolitical premiums continuing to sell. OPEC+announced an increase in production in August, coupled with Saudi Arabia’s reduction in Asian crude oil prices. Long term weak energy expectations have suppressed upstream raw material prices such as pure benzene, and the cost side continues to form a negative drag. The current industry’s processing profits have turned from profits to losses, with some manufacturers slightly reducing their losses. However, the overall supply contraction is limited, and the cost side is only temporarily supported by a small bottom, which cannot reverse the downward trend.
Supply and demand side: The market maintains a pattern of loose supply and sustained low demand. The continuous release of new production capacity of hexamethylenediamine in the upstream of the supply side, the overall operation of aggregation enterprises remains at a moderate level, the inventory of factories and traders continues to accumulate, the pressure of shipment intensifies, and the phenomenon of cargo holders actively lowering quotations and giving discounts to promote orders increases. The traditional off-season of the demand side industry has not passed, and the recovery of downstream terminal orders for automotive parts and electronic appliances is not as expected. Downstream factories only maintain rigid small order replenishment, and the willingness to stock up in large quantities is low. Market trading is light, and it is difficult to drive price recovery through essential procurement.
Future forecast
The weak and volatile pattern of the PA66 market in the short term is difficult to change, and there is still room for a slight downward trend in prices, making it difficult to see a sustained rebound. The short-term price operating range refers to 17600-18600 yuan/ton, with a continuous low-level bottoming out. Market reversal requires waiting for clear positive signals such as a significant strengthening of crude oil, concentrated price increases of adipic acid/hexamethylenediamine, or concentrated replenishment of downstream terminals.

The melamine market continued to show signs of fatigue this week, with prices fluctuating downwards and overall weak performance. On July 7th, the benchmark price of melamine reported by Shengyi Society was 6037.50 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.21% compared to the price of 6050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of July.
1、 Spot moving average trend: clear downward trend, increasing downward pressure

From the melamine price trend chart moving average system, the 10 day and 20 day moving averages showed a downward trend throughout the entire period, with the 10 day moving average consistently running below the 20 day moving average. The downward momentum in the market is still being released, but the pace of decline has slowed down. Throughout the entire cycle, the price followed the moving average downwards, and the moving average continued to suppress spot prices.
2、 Price Level 5: Low throughout the entire cycle, limited upward potential
The cycle position data shows that melamine is marked as low throughout the one-year cycle position. Although the price is already at a historically low level, it has not attracted buying in, and the low level has not provided support. The market still maintains a bearish trend. On July 3rd and June 30th, the price slightly fell by 0.21%, while on other trading days, the price remained flat and stable at 6037.50 yuan/ton for several consecutive days, belonging to a low-level stalemate state.
3、 Upstream raw material linkage: simultaneous weakening of urea and insufficient cost support
The core raw material of melamine, urea, also showed a downward trend this week. On July 7th, the benchmark price of urea was 1802.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% from 1813.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The continuous decline in raw material prices cannot provide cost support for melamine. Upstream costs have loosened, manufacturers’ production costs have decreased, and the market’s willingness to offer discounts for shipments has increased, further suppressing the rebound space of melamine prices.
4、 Market prediction
The current melamine spread index remains negative, and the downward trend has not yet reversed. The price is at a low level throughout the entire cycle but lacks support. Coupled with the continuous weakening of upstream urea costs, the short-term market fatigue is difficult to quickly improve. The market is mainly stuck at a low level. If there is no sudden positive news to boost prices, they may continue to operate in a narrow and weak range, and there is currently no signal to stop the decline.

Recently, the domestic formic acid market has shown a phased trend of “stabilizing first and then rising, continuously climbing”, breaking away from the previous weak pattern and completing a market reversal from weak balance to steady upward trend. The market supply and demand pattern continues to optimize, and the industry trading atmosphere continues to recover. As of July 6th, the benchmark price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China was 2300 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.86% from the end of June.

Phase 1: Horizontal consolidation
From June 29th to 30th, the formic acid market continued its previous sluggish trend, with the mainstream average price stabilizing at 2020/ton and no significant price fluctuations. The overall market is in a weak equilibrium state, with industry mainstream expectations being bearish, and downward pressure on the previous market still exists. However, the market has shown signs of recovery, with some production companies slightly raising their prices. Coupled with the news of delayed resumption of industry equipment production, downstream purchasing attitudes have slightly improved, and the enthusiasm for purchasing has increased, driving manufacturers’ inventory to steadily decline and laying the foundation for subsequent price increases.
Phase 2: Continuous Upstream
During the continuous upward phase from July 1st to 3rd, the market opened up a three consecutive upward trend, with steady and even gains. On July 1st, the market reached a turning point with a significant increase in prices, with the average price rising to 2100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4%. With the continuous improvement of shipping trends and the continuous release of downstream terminal replenishment demand, coupled with the steady decline of manufacturer inventory, multiple favorable factors have formed support, driving the market to continue to strengthen. The upward trend continued in the following two days, and on July 3rd, the price rose again, with an average price of 2300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 9.52%.
Market forecast: Price “rises”, favorable supply and demand, may continue to rise
The market analysis system shows that the formic acid curve has recently shown an upward trend, with the short-term moving average surpassing the long-term moving average, indicating an upward trend.
And the price is at a long-term low, with a large upward potential.
From a fundamental perspective, industry inventory has fallen back to the median range, with some companies limiting shipments and tightening spot supply. At the same time, downstream concentrated replenishment has driven a surge in trading heat, and the resonance of supply and demand has completely reversed the weak market pattern. The formic acid market is likely to continue its strong operating trend.

This week, with increased supply and continued weak demand, the acrylonitrile market continues to decline. As of July 3rd, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 10000-10100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300-400 yuan/ton compared to last week’s 10300-10500 yuan/ton; The short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 9850-9950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to last week’s 10100-10200 yuan/ton.

Market Overview: During the week, the Ruhr and Sinochem Quanzhou facilities were successfully restarted, with increased supply and continued weak demand. The downstream acrylic fiber industry saw a further decline in production, insufficient spot buying, and a decline in market negotiations. In addition, export negotiation prices also fell. Under weak fundamentals, major suppliers’ quotations were overall lowered. However, the price of raw material propylene rose sharply, and the production profit of acrylonitrile was compressed again, which to some extent suppressed the market decline.
Supply side:
During the week, the acrylonitrile plant started and stopped simultaneously, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached around 75%, resulting in an overall increase in supply. According to statistics, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories this week (June 26th July 2nd) was 74.43%, an increase of 5.02% compared to the previous week; The weekly output is about 86800 tons, an increase of 5800 tons from the previous week. The buying trend maintains the pace of rigid demand, and the inventory of enterprises also shows uneven fluctuations, but overall it is still not high. According to statistics, as of July 1st, the total inventory was about 44000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Demand side:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 58.5%, an increase of 0.4% compared to last week; Jilin Chemical Fiber’s subsidiary Jimeng Acrylic Fiber Co., Ltd. has reduced the load of its 155000 ton acrylic fiber plant to around 70% for production; The production of 150000 tons of acrylic fiber in Huarong spinning plant has decreased to around 50%, and the capacity utilization rate of the acrylic fiber industry is 72.90%, which is 10.37% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 52.87%, an increase of 0.84% compared to last week. Overall, there has been an increase in demand.
Cost aspect:
The price of propylene, a raw material, has risen on a weekly basis, leading to a decline in profits due to the decrease in acrylonitrile prices. According to statistics, as of July 3rd, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market was based on 7570-7700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7635 yuan/ton, an increase of 725 yuan/ton from the average price of 6910 yuan/ton last weekend. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 9731 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of -0.24%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was 649 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 372 yuan/ton.
In the later stage forecast, the inventory of major production enterprises remains low, but downstream demand continues to be weak, spot buying is insufficient, and demand for essential goods has also decreased. Market negotiations have declined, and coupled with lower export negotiation prices, the overall fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to weaken in the short term, but the price of raw material propylene will also rise, which will to some extent suppress the market decline.

1、 Market Overview: With a monthly increase of over 5%, there is a strong bullish sentiment
As of July 2, 2026, the benchmark price of propylene is reported at 7811.00 yuan/ton. Compared with 7411.00 yuan/ton in early July (June 30th), the price continued to rise during the week, with a cumulative increase of 5.40% for the month.

From the recent price trend, the market shows a strong trend of “bottoming out, rebounding, and accelerating upward”:
June 25-26: The market experienced a brief pullback, with prices dropping to around 6851 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 3.41%.
June 27-28: Prices stabilized at a low level, with a continuous increase or decrease of 0.00% for two consecutive days, building a solid bottom support platform.
From June 29th to July 1st: With the intervention of buying, prices began to rise continuously. Starting from 7211 yuan/ton, the daily increase was as high as 5.25% at one point, and then although there were slight fluctuations, the focus continued to shift upwards, eventually breaking through the 7800 yuan/ton mark and establishing a short-term upward trend.
2、 Technical Analysis of Business Treasure Spot Pass
Based on the analysis of the moving average chart and position indicators, the current technical signal for propylene is relatively strong
1. Mean Square Shape
The 20 day moving average continues to decline, and the medium-term bearish trend remains unchanged; The 10 day moving average first fell and then turned upwards, gradually approaching the 20 day moving average. The negative moving average continued to narrow, and the downward momentum was exhausted. The short-term upward signal is approaching.
2. Price in 5th tier positions
This “short high long low” position structure usually means that the market is in the early to mid stage of rebound or reversal. Although there is some profit taking pressure in the short term (10 day high), in the medium to long term, there is still significant room for recovery above, and it has not reached the long-term top resistance zone.
3、 Fundamental driven: Downstream products generally rise, forming positive feedback
The strengthening of the propylene market this week is not an isolated phenomenon, but has received strong support from downstream industrial chains:
Polypropylene (PP): As the largest downstream consumer of propylene, PP (brushed) performs excellently. The benchmark price on July 2nd was 7940.00 yuan/ton, with a 4.93% increase during the month. The firm price of PP directly improved the profit expectations of propylene production enterprises and stimulated the increase in ex factory prices.
Epoxy propane: Another important downstream epoxy propane price has also moderately increased to 7800.00 yuan/ton (+1.30%).
The price increase of downstream products has eased the pressure of cost transmission, which has increased the acceptance of high priced propylene by downstream factories, and the purchasing enthusiasm is still acceptable. The positive feedback mechanism of “product price increase driving raw material price increase” is the core driving force for propylene prices to break through the previous fluctuation range and achieve a growth rate of over 5% this week.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, the propylene market is currently in a benign channel where both quantity and price are rising. On a technical level, the bullish alignment of the moving average system supports prices to continue their inertial upward trend; Fundamentally, the release of downstream demand provides solid support.

1、 This week’s spot market trend

This week, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society showed overall weak fluctuations. From June 24th to 29th, the price remained stable in the range of 6062.5 yuan/ton for a long time, with narrow horizontal fluctuations in the market and no significant fluctuations in price; Until June 30th, the market broke through and fell, with a daily price reduction of 12.5 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.21%. The spot benchmark price fell to 6050 yuan/ton, a new low in the stage.
From a monthly perspective, as of July 1st, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% compared to the beginning of last month (6125.00 yuan/ton). The upstream raw material urea weakened synchronously, with a benchmark price of 1813.75 yuan/ton on July 1st, a month on month decrease of 0.34%. The cost side support continued to loosen, laying the foundation for the weak operation of melamine this week.
fundamentals
1. Cost side: Upstream urea prices have weakened synchronously, with a slight decrease in urea prices this month. The marginal cost of melamine production has fallen, and the cost support for production enterprises has weakened. The resistance to lowering factory quotations has decreased, and the raw material side cannot provide price increase momentum, but continues to exert strong pressure on spot prices.
2. Supply and demand side: The spot price remained flat in the first half of this week, mainly due to the weak balance between market supply and demand. Factory inventory remained stable, downstream board and coating rigid demand procurement remained stable, and there were no concentrated high-volume orders; In the second half of the week, the price broke the level, reflecting the continuous weakening of terminal demand, the increasing wait-and-see sentiment in downstream markets, the slowing down of the pace of purchasing, and the slight increase in pressure on manufacturers to ship, resulting in passive price cuts to promote transactions.
Prediction of future market trends
Short term trend: The current moving average index has entered a negative expansion range, corresponding to a signal of accelerated decline; At the same time, although the price of melamine is at a low level throughout the entire cycle, there are no signals to stop the decline such as the turning of the moving average or the convergence of the moving average. The short-term weak operating pattern of melamine prices is difficult to reverse, and there is still a small downward exploration space.

In June, the domestic ABS market experienced a significant decline, with most spot prices of various grades falling sharply. As of June 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.46% from the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter June, the domestic ABS industry’s equipment load remains stable with small fluctuations, and the overall operating rate within the range is around 58%. The current weekly average output is 125000 tons. The inventory of finished products will begin to accumulate in the second half of the month, and as of the end of the month, it has approached 240000 tons. The shipment situation of aggregation plants within the range remains sluggish, and there is no expectation of a contraction in production in the short term. Overall, the support for spot prices from the ABS supply side in June is average.
Cost factor: Since June, there have been frequent reports of preliminary peace agreements between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. In mid to late month, high-level officials from both sides intensively released positive signals. Although it will take some time for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to fully recover, the market predicts that the Middle East is easing, geopolitical premiums are quickly clearing, and oil prices have plummeted. Affected by it, the cost value of the upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the petrochemical chain, has been dragged. The cost value of acrylonitrile has decreased, and downstream consumption is weak. However, there was a shortage of spot resources in the middle of the month, and at the same time, the industry’s capacity utilization rate declined again, resulting in a brief upward trend in the market in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, there was a basic rebound, and there was a lack of positive guidance for the future market, resulting in insufficient market momentum.
In June, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and the focus of market transactions continued to decline, resulting in a sluggish overall trading atmosphere. Although some companies have fulfilled their maintenance obligations, downstream end products have poor profits and there is a lack of inventory expansion operations. The futures market is synchronously following the weakness of spot trading, and the pessimistic trading sentiment in the market continues to spread. The market may still be in a weak downward channel.
Since June, the styrene market has continued to decline. From the perspective of raw materials, the geopolitical premium has fallen, and the market lacks confidence in the demand side, resulting in a weak decline in pure benzene prices. However, the domestic supply of styrene has shifted from tight at the beginning of the month to balanced, and coupled with the lack of effective driving force for styrene consumption, the market lacks upward momentum. In the second half of the month, multiple sets of styrene plants in China will restart and cash in, and the supply is expected to become loose. It is expected that the short-term trend of styrene will be weak and volatile.
On the demand side, there were limited changes in the start of work for downstream ABS enterprises in June. The main terminal appliance industry has entered a off-season, with poor consumption of appliance casings and no improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises. The atmosphere inside the venue is buying up instead of buying down, and there has been a significant reduction in replenishing and building positions. The buyer camp has a high resistance to high priced goods, and merchants follow the market and lower their withdrawal funds. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
post-market forecast
The domestic ABS market continued to decline in June. The production load of the aggregation plant has fluctuated narrowly, inventory has accumulated, and the on-site supply remains within a sufficient range. The overall trend of cost and material is weak. The current cost collapse of ABS, prominent supply-demand contradictions, downward shift in spot prices, and sluggish trading on the market.

On June 1, 2026, the electrolytic manganese market saw a slight increase at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the spot market price in East China was 18200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 18250 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.27%.
In the first half of this month, the mainstream price of electrolytic manganese in China was slightly increased by 50 yuan/ton, which was the only price adjustment action of the whole month. The market price remained stable in the second half of the month without any fluctuations. Overall, the fundamentals of the electrolytic manganese market in June were in a game equilibrium state. At the beginning of the month, it was driven slightly upwards by cost and manufacturer price hikes, but downstream terminal demand did not continue to follow up and lacked the driving force to continue rising. The subsequent market entered a narrow range oscillation mode, with on-site trading mainly focused on long order fulfillment and stable procurement of rigid demand. The spot circulation rhythm was stable, and the overall market remained stable with a slight upward trend and no obvious upward or downward trend.
In terms of manganese ore: In June, the overall cost of electrolytic manganese remained stable with some support, but there was insufficient upward momentum, which supported a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton in the market at the beginning of the month. However, the market continued to remain flat and stagnant thereafter. This month, domestic manganese ore spot prices have remained weak and stable, with a narrow range of fluctuations. Downstream price pressure games are evident, and port spot transactions are average. The price difference of mineral types has slightly differentiated, with a relatively prominent decline in South African manganese ore prices. The overall spot price at the port is stable, with transactions of about 37 yuan/ton for South African semi carbonate at Tianjin Port and 40.5-41 yuan/ton for Gabonese blocks; The ore prices in Qinzhou Port fluctuate with inventory structure, with Australian seeds priced at 36.5-38 yuan/ton and Australian blocks priced at 41.5-42 yuan/ton. In terms of foreign markets, South African mines slightly lowered their shipping prices to China in July. UMK and NMT’s South African semi carbonate prices were reduced by 0.15 USD/ton and 0.1 USD/ton respectively compared to the previous month, and the arrival price of foreign markets continued to be higher than domestic spot prices, continuing the inverted market pattern. Combined with the pressure of losses on downstream silicon manganese enterprises, the willingness to import goods and accept new orders is relatively weak. At the same time, the dry season in major domestic production areas has ended, with stable power supply and no fluctuations in electricity prices, and the comprehensive production cost of electrolytic manganese remains stable. Overall, the manganese ore and production costs have formed a solid bottom support, supporting the slight price increase at the beginning of the month. However, the mining face remains weak and there is no upward trend, making it difficult for the cost side to drive the market to continue rising, which has led to the overall market maintaining a stable pattern.

Supply side: In June, the overall supply of electrolytic manganese in the domestic market was stable and orderly, with sufficient supply and stable circulation rhythm. Mainstream production areas such as Guangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, and Ningxia have started operating smoothly without centralized maintenance or large-scale production restrictions. The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a normal level, and the monthly output is stable. Mainstream smelters prioritize the delivery of long-term contract orders, with a regular shipping rhythm and ample supply of circulating spot goods in the overall market. Social inventory remains within a reasonable range, with no significant accumulation or destocking extremes. The overall pricing mentality of the manufacturers is still acceptable. At the beginning of the month, the borrowing cost and supply situation remained stable, and the quotation slightly increased. However, the overall loose supply pattern remained unchanged, and sufficient supply constrained further price increases, causing the market to quickly enter a stable stalemate after rising.

On the demand side: The overall downstream demand for electrolytic manganese in June remained stable and weak, with stable production and a lack of incremental demand, which is a key factor in maintaining market stability. Core downstream stainless steel and special steel enterprises have started production steadily this month. Steel mills mainly purchase raw materials by replenishing inventory as needed and picking up goods in batches. At the beginning of the month, they moderately followed up with market price increases to support short-term market strength. However, the performance of end product orders is average, and the industry is in a traditional off-season, with insufficient overall demand growth. The downstream demand for supporting industries such as alloy smelting and chemical engineering remains flat, with average production enthusiasm, stable raw material consumption rate, and no favorable release of centralized replenishment. The speculative buying sentiment in the market is relatively weak, with only the demand side supported by actual orders. The stagnant pattern of weak or weak demand has left the market without a basis for a sharp decline or sustained upward momentum, and the market has been running steadily in a narrow range throughout the entire process.
At present, silicon manganese maintains a narrow fluctuation operation, and the cost support of silicon manganese is still acceptable. Manufacturers face significant production pressure, and most production areas are currently experiencing production inversion. Some factories may have plans to reduce production in the later stage. However, under the background of seasonal off-season, inventory pressure and expectations of new production capacity release in some regions still suppress confidence in the market. Business Society predicts that the manganese silicon market may continue to operate weakly in the short term. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 29th, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) is around 5500-5600 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 5542.00 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: Based on the fundamentals of market operation in June, the domestic electrolytic manganese market is likely to continue its narrow range oscillation and stable stalemate pattern in the short term, with limited room for fluctuations. On the cost side, the current manganese ore spot market continues to weaken and stabilize, with a slight decrease in forward quotes for external markets. The inverted pattern between internal and external markets continues, and there is a lack of upward momentum on the cost side. However, the electricity prices in production areas are stable, and the comprehensive production costs are controllable at a low level. The bottom support is relatively solid, and there is no basis for a sharp decline in the market. On the supply side, the construction in major domestic production areas will remain stable, with sufficient supply of goods and minimal inventory fluctuations. The overall supply-demand loose pattern remains unchanged, and there is no significant expectation of tightening. On the demand side, downstream steel mills are in the off-season, and the pattern of stable demand continues. There is currently no significant rebound in terminal finished product orders, and the market is mostly picking up goods in batches according to demand. The lack of incremental demand makes it difficult to drive the market to continue to rise. Overall, the electrolytic manganese market will continue to maintain a supply-demand game in the future, with stability as the main trend and narrow range consolidation. The focus will be on changes in manganese ore prices, the pace of downstream steel mills’ centralized replenishment, and the adjustment of production in major production areas.

Silver prices fell sharply in June

On May 29, 2026, the silver market quoted 14185.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 21.86% from the spot price of 18154.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (6.1).
The general logic of silver operation in June is as follows:
The sharp drop in silver prices this month is due to the resonance of multiple factors, including the reversal of expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the strengthening of the US dollar and bond yields, the retreat of safe haven funds, the stampede of speculative funds, and the weakening of industrial demand. The main reason is that the strong inflation and employment data in the United States have raised expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The hawkish signals released at the interest rate meeting have driven the real interest rates of US bonds and the US dollar index to rise simultaneously, reducing the attractiveness of interest free precious metals; Combined with the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the concentration of safe haven funds leaving the market, the previous crowding of long positions triggered a stop loss stampede. At the same time, the slowdown in the growth of silver demand for photovoltaics weakened the support of industrial fundamentals. Silver itself has greater volatility elasticity than gold, and the decline is further amplified under the linkage of internal and external markets.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy expectations have completely reversed
Expected to fully switch from “interest rate cuts” to “interest rate hikes”; At the beginning of the year, the market bet on multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which was the core driving force behind the surge in silver prices in the first half of the year; However, the stickiness of US CPI and PCE inflation data in May and June exceeded expectations, and the resilience of non farm employment was extremely strong, with inflation falling short of the target.
On June 17th, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting released hawkish signals; The interest rate remains unchanged at 3.5% -3.75%, but the dot matrix chart raises the annual interest rate expectation, with nearly half of officials expecting a rate hike within 2026; Walsh made it clear that anti inflation should be prioritized and liquidity should be tightened, and deleted the forward-looking wording of interest rate cuts.
Price significantly based on the probability of interest rate hikes; According to data from the Zhishang Exchange, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December has risen to over 86%, completely ending the logic of interest rate cuts.
The rise in real interest rates suppresses silver; Silver is an interest free asset, with a significant increase in nominal and real yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds. The opportunity cost of holding silver has skyrocketed, and funds have shifted from precious metals to fixed income assets in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, putting immense pressure on silver prices.
Middle East geopolitical easing and collective escape of safe haven funds
In June, the US Iran conflict cooled down, and both sides reached a memorandum of understanding. The risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was lifted, and the geopolitical panic premium quickly dissipated; In the first half of the year, a large amount of safe haven speculative funds flowed into gold and silver for hedging. After the risk landed, they concentrated on redeeming, selling and leaving, and gold and silver weakened synchronously.
The marginal weakening of industrial demand cannot offset macroeconomic pressures due to fundamental factors
The core industrial demand for silver comes from the photovoltaic industry. Currently, the photovoltaic industry is generally promoting silver reduction and silver substitution technologies, resulting in a continuous decline in silver consumption per unit of photovoltaic power. The growth rate of silver demand for photovoltaic power has slowed down and the increment is lower than expected; Although there has been an annual gap in global silver supply and demand for the sixth consecutive year, the market circulation stock is extremely large, and the short-term supply and demand gap cannot withstand the selling pressure brought by macro monetary policies. It can only support long-term prices and cannot prevent short-term sharp declines.
Silver’s high speculative attribute breaks through and experiences a stampede like sharp drop

The fluctuation range of silver is usually 1.5-2 times that of gold, and the long positions are extremely crowded in the early stage; In the early stage, long positions gained substantial profits. After the price fell below the key support level, programmed stop loss, long kill, and long stampede were triggered, and concentrated selling amplified the decline; COMEX’s net long positions in silver speculation have rapidly fallen from historical highs, while ETFs continue to reduce their holdings, leading to negative feedback and a decline in fund outflows.

In June 2026, the overall market situation of domestic antimony ingots continued to weaken, with the price center continuously shifting downwards. The trading atmosphere in the market was quiet, and both domestic and foreign markets were running weakly. The industry as a whole was in a downward trend during the off-season, and there was a clear game of long and short in the market. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market continued to decline in June 2026, with an average market price of 149500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 123500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a cumulative decline of 17.39% throughout the month.

Supply side:
Strict total quantity control policies are implemented in domestic antimony mining, and environmental security checks are carried out on a regular basis. Local mining is restricted, and the release of primary antimony production capacity is limited, resulting in a long-term overall tight supply of antimony resources in China. However, there has been a significant change in the overseas raw material circulation pattern this month, with Thailand’s export volume of antimony raw materials to China sharply decreasing, and the previously high export volume falling sharply. The impact of the reduction in raw material supply is gradually lagging behind, but the country’s import volume of raw materials from Myanmar has not significantly declined, and the short-term raw material supply gap has not yet been fully reflected. At the same time, there has been a continuous increase in the inflow of antimony raw materials from Africa, which to some extent offsets the impact of tightening overseas supply. The overall supply of raw materials by domestic smelting enterprises is still acceptable, production has remained stable, and the market spot circulation supply is sufficient. Coupled with the market price continuously approaching the production cost line, the low-priced circulation of goods in the market has increased, highlighting the overall loose supply situation.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. June is the off-season for traditional consumption of antimony products, and the overall market consumption atmosphere is sluggish, with weak overall support for demand
Antimony oxide: The downstream market performance of traditional antimony oxide is weak, and the overall production of the flame retardant industry is insufficient. The price of bromine based flame retardants is low, and the industry orders are relatively few. The purchasing enthusiasm of end manufacturers is sluggish, and most of them purchase in small quantities according to demand. The overall stocking willingness is weak, and market transactions are very flat.
Photovoltaics: The photovoltaic field is an emerging demand growth point for antimony ingots, mainly used for photovoltaic glass production. In June, the demand in the photovoltaic field weakened synchronously, and the production pace of photovoltaic glass enterprises slowed down. The daily melting volume continued to decrease, and the overall pressure of the industry to reduce inventory was too high. Enterprises strictly controlled the amount of raw material procurement, and the purchasing intensity of antimony related raw materials continued to decline.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the off-season pattern of the industry has not yet ended, and the pace of downstream demand recovery is slow. Coupled with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, the price of antimony ingots still lacks strong upward momentum, and the market is likely to continue a weak and volatile trend at a low level. There is still room for slight downward price exploration. As the off-season gradually comes to an end, the operating rates of major downstream industries are expected to steadily rebound, and traditional consumer demand will gradually be released, driving the concentrated release of market demand procurement. In terms of supply, the lagging impact of overseas raw material reduction will gradually become prominent, and the later tightening of raw material sources will provide substantial support to the market. Overall, the antimony market is unlikely to change its weak pattern in the short term, with a focus on bottoming out and consolidation. When the demand side recovers substantially and overseas supply tightens, the antimony ingot market is expected to gradually stop falling and stabilize from late June to the third quarter, ushering in a trend of stabilization and recovery.