Market trend
The PA6 spot market has been consolidating at a high level in the past week (September 9-15). On September 9th, the benchmark price of PA6 was reported at 14500.00 yuan/ton, and the price remained high during the week, with mainstream manufacturers significantly raising their prices; Technical indicators show directional differentiation of the three mean differences, presenting a bullish signal of retracement under volatile market conditions, with prices in the high range of 60 day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles.
influencing factors
Cost side: Upstream pure benzene prices are running at a high level. In the second week of September, Sinopec raised the weekly closing price of caprolactam by 520 yuan/ton to 14480 yuan/ton, resulting in a significant increase in raw material costs and strong cost support for PA6. The polymerization factory has a strong willingness to raise prices.
Supply and demand side: Some of the caprolactam units are undergoing maintenance, and the overall supply of raw materials is tight. The PA6 polymerization unit is operating at a relatively stable level, and the market spot increment is limited. The inventory pressure of factories and traders is not high, and the holding merchants have a strong reluctance to sell and a weak willingness to ship at low prices. Downstream textile and spinning enterprises on the demand side urgently need to follow up, but they have resistance to high slice prices. The release of textile orders at the end of the “Golden September” peak season fell short of expectations. Most downstream enterprises mainly consume their own inventory and replenish inventory on demand, with weak willingness to actively stock up in large quantities. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is average.
Future forecast
The PA6 market is expected to maintain a volatile and strong consolidation pattern in the short term in the future. The cost support brought by the high level of caprolactam still exists, and the atmosphere of multiple heads in the industrial chain is still present; However, the current full cycle price is at a high level, and the downstream acceptance capacity is limited. There is significant resistance to sustained and significant price increases, and it is necessary to focus on tracking the progress of caprolactam plant resumption, fluctuations in pure benzene prices, and the actual order landing situation of textile terminals.

1、 Price trend: The center of gravity shifts upwards, and the end is flat

Entering the second week of September (September 7th to September 14th), the melamine market showed a trend of “rising first and then stabilizing”. As of September 15th, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% from the beginning of this month (6175.00 yuan/ton).
From this week’s trend, the price was 6212.50 yuan/ton on September 7th, gradually rising in the following trading days. After breaking through to 6250 yuan/ton on September 10th, it entered a stable period. From September 11th to 14th, it remained stable at 6250.00 yuan/ton for four consecutive trading days, with zero daily increase or decrease. The overall market performance is stable, and the price center has shifted upward compared to the previous period.
2、 Moving average system: Long position arrangement, clear upward signal
From the price and moving average chart, it can be seen that the moving averages of each cycle this week show a clear bullish upward divergence feature: the 5-day moving average is located at the top, and the 10 day and 20 day moving averages are arranged downwards in sequence, all maintaining an upward slope.
The current 10 day moving average continues to operate above the 20 day moving average, with a positive moving average and maintaining an expanding trend. This is a typical continuation period after the moving average crosses, indicating that the early upward signal has been confirmed and short-term bulls dominate. However, it is worth noting that in recent days, the current price moving average has been in line with and leveled off the 5-day moving average, indicating a short-term stalemate at the 6250 yuan/ton level.
3、 Position and cycle: high in the short to medium term, still in the medium to low range in the long term
From the monitoring of location data, on September 14th, melamine was at a “high” level in the 10 day, 20 day, and 30 day periods, at a “medium high” level in the 60 day and 90 day periods, and remained at a “medium low” level throughout the year.
This indicates that the current upward trend mainly reflects the strength in the short to medium term. The price has reached the upper edge of the recent range, but in a longer annual cycle, the current price has not yet reached historical highs, and there is still early bottom support below.
4、 Cost driven: urea surge provides support
The upstream raw material urea of melamine has shown stronger performance this month. On September 15th, the benchmark price of urea was 1800.00 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 4.96% compared to the beginning of this month (1715.00 yuan/ton), and the increase was significantly higher than that of melamine (1.21%).
The rapid rise of raw material urea has formed a significant driving force on the melamine market from the cost side, which is the core logic for the shift of melamine price center and the maintenance of strength this week.
5、 Future prospects
Overall, driven by the rise in urea prices on the cost side, melamine achieved a price increase this week. The bullish arrangement of the moving average system confirms a strong pattern, and the market is operating steadily as a whole.
In the short term, with cost support and the upward momentum of the moving average, melamine is expected to maintain a high consolidation level; However, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in momentum after the continuous flattening of prices. If the difference between the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average narrows (the moving average shrinks), we need to be alert to the adjustment signals brought by the downward crossing of the moving average. In the medium to long term, as the market remains at a mid to low level for one year, the overall valuation of the market has not shown extreme overvaluation. The subsequent trend will rely more on the sustainability of the raw material side and the follow-up of downstream demand.

From September 1 to 14, 2026, the domestic No. 1 antimony ingot market experienced fluctuating price increases, with the average price at the beginning of the month reaching 102,000 yuan per ton and the average price on the 14th reaching 105,000 yuan per ton, resulting in a cumulative rise of 2.94%.

In mid-to-late September, the domestic #1 antimony ingot market exhibited a fluctuating but slightly upward trend, with strong overall resilience. During this two-week cycle, market forces of supply and demand interplayed, with positive factors prevailing. On the supply side, the implementation of overseas mineral export bans and domestic smelters’ losses leading to cautious sales jointly supported steady antimony price increases. While demand-side factors such as limited concentrated procurement during the peak season and terminal cost pressures constrained the rise, they did not significantly suppress the market trend. The market remained broadly bullish, with steady upward movement alongside periodic fluctuations. Downstream buyers made purchases based on demand and rationally stocked up, resulting in a modest price increase.
Supply side:
In terms of overseas markets,锑锭 prices in international markets showed a slight increase this week, with stable essential demand underpinning the overall trend. Policy factors were the primary disruptors this month, as Zimbabwe imposed an export ban on antimony and tungsten ores and concentrates on September 8. This policy triggered market concerns over supply, raising worries about a medium-to-long-term tightening of global antimony raw material supply, which continues to impact market sentiment.
In the domestic market, the supply side remains generally tight, with a strong market sentiment of price support. Domestic antimony mining is strictly controlled, and the antimony concentrate market has maintained a tight balance for an extended period. Most domestic smelters rely on externally purchased raw materials for production, leading to significant profitability pressure across the industry, with widespread losses. This has fostered a strong price-support mindset among enterprises. Traders primarily maintain just-in-time inventory for operational needs, avoiding concentrated stock liquidation or clearance operations. The overall tightness of spot market circulation provides a bottom support for domestic antimony prices, resulting in a stable to slightly stronger performance in the spot market.
Demand side:
In traditional downstream demand, antimony accounts for approximately 55% in flame retardant materials and about 15% in glass. Antimony is an essential and irreplaceable element in the production of photovoltaic glass. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the primary incremental demand for antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic sector. This period’s downstream demand for antimony ingots shows characteristics of lingering seasonal expectations but insufficient actual growth, with overall rigid demand providing stable support but lacking concentrated volume-driven momentum. The current downstream market exhibits relatively subdued trading activity, with the industry generally maintaining low inventory levels and adopting a demand-based procurement model. Traditional rigid demand for antimony oxide and new energy rigid demand for photovoltaic glass create a dual bottoming effect, but factors such as terminal cost pressures and weak orders continue to constrain restocking efforts. The overall demand-side performance remains mild and weak, limiting the upward movement of antimony prices.
Antimony oxide: As the core downstream application of antimony ingots, the antimony trioxide industry has entered the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden September,” with seasonal recovery expected. However, overall demand performance remains weak. In downstream sectors such as flame retardants and plastic chemicals, rising upstream raw material prices have driven continuous production cost increases, compressing corporate profit margins. Consequently, procurement attitudes across the board remain cautiously conservative, with steady but moderate demand for essential purchases.

Photovoltaic: Photovoltaic glass is an important downstream application field of antimony ingots in new energy. In this period, the overall operation of the industry is weak, and the demand for incremental procurement is insufficient. The overall situation is characterized by weak supply and demand, accumulated inventory, and pressure on enterprise operations. The implementation of domestic photovoltaic bidding is slow, and the enthusiasm for overseas stocking has declined. Overall, photovoltaic glass enterprises only maintain sporadic procurement for essential needs, without centralized replenishment actions, and have weak support for antimony ingots.
Market forecast:
The future market needs to focus on the pre holiday replenishment rhythm of downstream flame retardants and photovoltaic glass industries in mid to late September. If the demand for centralized replenishment in the downstream before the holiday is released, the antimony ingot market is expected to continue its recovery trend, and the upward pace may accelerate; If the terminal continues to maintain scattered procurement for essential needs and the incremental demand during peak seasons is limited, the market may continue its current upward trend of oscillation. Focus on the actual downstream demand.

In the first half of the year, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices remained stable, while the prices of dysprosium oxide and dysprosium metal remained stable. The price of dysprosium ferroalloy slightly decreased, with dysprosium oxide prices reaching 1.465 million yuan/ton as of the 11th; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.42 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% in price; The price of dysprosium metal is 1.965 million yuan/ton.

The price trend of the heavy rare earth market remained stable in the first ten days, which was not caused by a single factor, but rather the result of the combined effects of supply rigidity, demand support, policy regulation, and market games.
Supply side: Continuous strengthening of rigid constraints
The domestic supply of rare earths is strictly constrained by total quantity control indicators. The total quota for rare earth mining in 2026 is 285000 tons of REO, including 246000 tons of light rare earths (+7.1% year-on-year) and 39000 tons of heavy rare earths (only+2.6% year-on-year, almost zero growth). The quota for medium and heavy rare earths has remained zero growth for several consecutive years, with a clear supply ceiling. Even though the Baiyunebo Mine reported the production expansion, the rare earth output is still strictly limited by the quota, and will not exceed the total amount index due to the increase of ore mining output. At the same time, the increase in overseas supply is limited. Myanmar’s rare earth ore imports are hindered, and overseas substitution capacity can only cover the low-end demand for light rare earths. The heavy rare earth sector still heavily relies on China. Due to invoicing issues, some domestic waste recycling companies have reduced production, further limiting the annual supply growth rate.
Demand side: Structural support for stable chassis
The largest downstream application of heavy rare earths is permanent magnet materials in the fields of new energy vehicles and wind power. The second and third quarters are usually the traditional off-season for the new energy vehicle and wind power industries, resulting in insufficient orders for magnetic material companies and a decrease in operating rates to 60% -65%. Terminal enterprises are suppressing prices, and magnetic material factories generally adopt a conservative strategy of “on-demand procurement and zero inventory”, refusing high prices, resulting in a significant contraction of demand for heavy rare earths. In order to reduce costs, some mid to low end magnetic materials have reduced the addition of heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium in production, further suppressing demand and maintaining a low market for heavy rare earths.
Policy side: Strategic control and storage support
Since 2026, rare earth control policies have been implemented intensively. The Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law have officially come into effect, for the first time including rare earths in the national strategic mineral resources catalog in the form of administrative regulations, and establishing a legal and normalized storage system. The National Material Reserve Bureau has launched the fourth phase of the rare earth storage plan, with annual storage targets of 3000 tons, 4000 tons, and 5000 tons of neodymium metal from 2026 to 2028. The collection and storage mechanism provides a bottom line effect for prices, gradually shifting the positioning of rare earths from “cyclical products” to “strategic products”. In addition, industry consolidation continues to advance. China Rare Earth, China Nonferrous Metals, and China Minmetals, the three major central mining enterprises, have simultaneously initiated asset restructuring and integration. The establishment of the two major rare earth groups in the north and south will gradually concentrate fragmented mining rights and smelting indicators in the hands of top enterprises, making the upstream supply rhythm more controllable.
Market forecast: The recent trend of heavy rare earth market is stable, and the core is the result of the combined effect of insufficient short-term demand and market sentiment cooling. Starting from 2026, the global supply and demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, and rare earth prices are expected to remain stable with some progress.

As of September 10th, the price of 0 # zinc was 27529 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% from the zinc price of 26948 yuan/ton on September 1st.
fundamentals
In early September, zinc prices showed an accelerated upward trend, becoming the strongest performer in the non-ferrous metal sector. The core logic of this round of price increase lies in the substantial transmission from tight mines to tight ingots. In terms of trend rhythm, the first half of the year showed a pulse like characteristic of “rising slightly, stepping back slightly, and then rising again”. Overall, the zinc price center in the first half of the year has significantly increased compared to the end of August, but spot market transactions have almost stagnated, and downstream consumers generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices. Spot prices remain at a discount, and futures prices have risen significantly faster than spot prices.
Supply side:
As of early September, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has decreased by 300 yuan compared to the previous period, and the processing fee index for imported zinc concentrate has dropped to -124.5 US dollars per dry ton, both at historically low levels. A negative processing fee depth means that smelters not only cannot profit from processing fees, but also have to bear costs. Coupled with the decline in the price of by-product sulfuric acid, smelting losses continue to expand, and multiple refineries (in Guangxi, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other places) have experienced sudden maintenance and production cuts.
Domestic zinc ingot inventory experienced an unexpected decline in the first half of the year. The core driving force for the rapid clearance of inventory is the opening of the export window – after the Shanghai London ratio fell below the critical threshold of 7.0, the profit window for zinc ingot export sales and delivery officially opened, and a large number of domestic zinc ingots flowed into overseas markets. This’ inventory transfer ‘behavior has caused a temporary shortage of domestic spot goods in the short term, but the majority of the destocking volume is for export sources rather than the actual digestion of terminal consumption.
Demand side:
The weighted operating rate of downstream primary processing enterprises is only 51.44%, which is at a low level in the past five years. The high-frequency production of galvanized structural parts, die-casting zinc alloys, and zinc oxide has all declined. The overall performance is weaker than seasonal. After the zinc price rose to 26000 yuan/ton, there was a strong fear of high prices and cautious procurement in the downstream market. Spot trading in Guangdong was sluggish, and galvanizing and die-casting alloy factories had low purchasing intentions. Terminal hardware accessory factories faced the risk of production reduction and shutdown. Galvanized pipe manufacturers have also postponed their production schedule for September due to low terminal consumption and high zinc cost. Terminal real estate remains the main drag, and although infrastructure orders have resilience, they have not yet formed a synergy.
The current logic chain supporting zinc prices, including tight mining, reduced smelting production, and domestic destocking, is still intact, and there have been no false signals in the short term. Weak follow-up of spot prices: After the rapid rise in zinc prices, downstream sentiment of fear of high prices has intensified, spot prices remain at a discount, terminal order growth is limited, and peak season consumption has not yet been fully realized. Driven by the price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the maintenance plans of some domestic smelters have been postponed again, and the actual production reduction in September may be lower than expected. Short term zinc prices are likely to maintain a pattern of high volatility and strong bias. Currently in the stage of “strong trend+high skill buying”, it is not advisable to chase after the rise. In the early stage, if you place multiple orders, you can consider taking profits on the high portion and wait for the price to stabilize after hitting the 10 day or 20 day moving average before looking for a technical entry point to buy on dips.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (September 2-8), the PA66 market has been in a stalemate in the early stage. In the later stage of the week, factories concentrated on raising their ex factory quotations, and spot prices quickly rose. The benchmark spot price increased from 18166.67 yuan/ton to 19100.00 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.14%. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 60 day cycle price is in the high range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range; The moving average model sends a clear upward signal, indicating a strengthening short-term trend, but the short-term price has already reached a high level, and there is limited room for further upward movement.
2、 Cost analysis
The price of upstream adiponitrile raw materials has risen, and the strength of upstream chemicals such as acrylonitrile has driven up the cost of raw materials, resulting in increased support for PA66 production costs. In the early stage, the price of slices was close to the cost line of the industry, and the pressure of production enterprises to lose money was greater. The willingness to ship at low prices was weakened. Leading enterprises raised prices and concentrated price increases, pushing the focus of market quotations upward. However, there is currently no significant contraction in the supply of raw materials, and the foundation for sustained cost increases is not yet available.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the overall operation of PA66 plants in China remains relatively high, with sufficient market supply and no obvious shortage of supply; As prices rise, manufacturers’ willingness to support prices has strengthened, but there is currently no large-scale initiative to reduce production and maintain prices. In terms of demand, the downstream modification, injection molding, and airbag wire industries are expected to experience the traditional peak season of Jinjiu. Some downstream industries are concerned about the continued rise of raw materials, leading to precautionary restocking and a rebound in inquiry and transaction volume; However, there has not been an explosive growth in actual orders at the terminal, and downstream factories have limited acceptance of high-level raw materials. Most enterprises still maintain on-demand procurement, and there is a weak willingness to stockpile in large quantities. Under the game of supply and demand, costs and peak season expectations drive prices upwards, but terminal demand forms a certain constraint on the upward trend.
4、 Short term forecast
In the short term, the PA66 spot market is likely to continue its strong and volatile pattern. The support of raw material costs, expectations for the peak season of the Golden September, and downstream replenishment behavior have formed favorable conditions for the market, and there is still a possibility of price increase; However, the short-term price is already at a high level in the 60 day cycle, and the follow-up strength of terminal demand is limited. The conditions for continuing to surge sharply are insufficient. Beware of the risk of a pullback in transactions after the rise. It is expected that PA66 will fluctuate in the short-term range of 18700-19600 yuan/ton, with a focus on tracking the trend of raw material adiponitrile and the release of downstream real orders.

1、 Market Overview: Prices have slightly increased, maintaining high levels of operation
This week, the domestic acrylic acid market showed a fluctuating upward trend. On September 8th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 8350.00 yuan/ton. Compared to the 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1st), the weekly average has increased by 1.42%.
From the perspective of price trends, after a brief period of stability, the market experienced a significant upward trend at the beginning of the week (with a 1.21% increase on September 4th), and then stabilized and consolidated at a high level.
Fundamental analysis: supply-demand game and cost divergence
Despite the rise in finished product prices, the upstream raw material side has shown the opposite trend:
On September 8th, the benchmark price of upstream raw material propylene was 9034.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10% from the beginning of this week. The decline in raw material prices theoretically weakens the cost support for acrylic acid.
Against the backdrop of a decline in raw material prices, the price of acrylic acid remains strong or even rises, mainly due to the supply-demand game. In order to maintain profit margins, acrylic acid factories and holders have adopted a strategy of stable price quotations, offsetting the negative impact of cost side declines. The control of spot circulation in the market forces downstream to accept high prices.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, the acrylic acid market is currently in a situation of “strong reality, weak cost”.
Short term forecast: Due to the upward divergence of the moving average system and its historical high, market inertia still exists. It is expected that acrylic acid will continue its trend of interval consolidation and operation next week.
Focus: It is necessary to closely monitor whether the raw material propylene has stopped falling and stabilized. If propylene continues to decline significantly, it may further compress factory profits, leading to reduced production to maintain prices or forcing factories to lower factory prices; On the contrary, if downstream demand can continue to follow up and high priced transactions can increase volume, prices are expected to further break through.

1、 Price trend: The benchmark price is moderately rising, and spot prices are stable with small movements

As of September 7th, the benchmark price of melamine was 6212.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% from the beginning of the month (6175.00 yuan/ton). From the daily prices this week, the price remained stable at 6200 yuan/ton from September 1st to 4th, and rose to 6212.50 yuan/ton on September 5th and 6th, with a daily increase or decrease of 0.00%. Only September 4th saw a slight increase of 0.20%. The overall performance is characterized by a narrow range consolidation and a slight shift in the center of gravity, with a pattern of “large stability and small movement”.
2、 Technical signal: The direction of the mean deviation is different, and the trend is judged as “oscillation”
According to the core principle of spot market analysis tools, an upper crossing of the moving average (from negative to positive) indicates an upward signal, while a lower crossing of the moving average (from positive to negative) indicates a downward or adjustment signal.
Analysts believe that the three directions of the mean deviation are not completely consistent and do not meet the clear trend determination criteria, therefore the current price trend is classified as oscillation.
From a historical percentile perspective, the current price is at the median level in both the 60 day and 90 day cycles, with a relatively balanced range of fluctuations; Being at a low level in a one-year cycle indicates limited space below and some support for prices.
3、 Fundamental analysis of supply and demand
1. Supply side: low to medium operating rate, frequent device dynamics
This week, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic melamine industry remained at a medium low level of around 52% to 54%. In terms of equipment, the market supply increment is limited. In addition, overseas SKW Pistritz in Germany has shut down its 80000 ton/year plant, tightening the available supply of goods in the European region and providing a certain boost to domestic export expectations.
Overall, the contraction of the supply side provides bottom support for prices, but the increment brought by the resumption of production equipment also limits the upward space.
2. Cost side: Raw material urea continues to rise, with increased cost support
As of September 7th, the benchmark price of urea was 1722.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% from the beginning of the month (1715.00 yuan/ton). The continuous rise of raw material urea is one of the core factors that have supported the recent price of melamine. Urea rose due to the strong coal prices and international prices, transmitting upward momentum from the cost side to melamine.
It should be noted that the actual demand for urea has not shown significant improvement, and if the subsequent rise in urea slows down, the cost support effect may weaken.
3. Demand side: Terminal demand is flat, with obvious resistance to high prices
Downstream demand continues to be weak. The domestic demand for sheet metal is constrained by the sluggish real estate market, and the industrial sector only maintains basic needs to keep up. Downstream consumers have a strong resistance to “high priced” sources of goods. At present, it is a relatively off-season for sheet metal, with limited stock follow-up. The overall market is in a supply-demand game, with supply contraction and cost increase providing price support. However, weak demand is suppressing the upper space, and offers are mainly flexible.
4、 Comprehensive outlook
In the short term, the melamine market is likely to continue its volatile consolidation pattern: raw material urea is rising, and the industry is operating at a medium low level; The one-year price position is relatively low, and the downward space is limited. The terminal demand is flat, and downstream high prices resist; The mean difference signal has not formed a clear trend direction.

Subsequent attention should be focused on the trend of raw material urea prices, changes in plant operating rates, and whether the 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average can form a clear “moving average upward crossing” signal. If this signal appears, it may indicate the start of an upward trend; On the contrary, in a supply-demand stalemate, the market will continue to experience narrow fluctuations.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices fluctuated widely. As of September 4th, copper prices were reported at 110031.67 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the beginning of the week and up 37.23% year-on-year.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 234175 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.04% from the beginning of the week.
Macro wise: The overall macro outlook this week is bearish. Federal Reserve’s Walsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, emphasizing the unwavering 2% inflation target. The probability of a rate hike in September has risen from less than 40% to about 60%, and the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 90%. The US dollar index rose 0.85% to 99.68 for the week, suppressing copper prices denominated in US dollars. In terms of geography, although the situation between the United States and Iran has eased, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and market reactions tend to be sluggish. On the domestic front, the manufacturing PMI in August rebounded by 0.6% to 49.8% month on month, indicating a slight increase in economic activity but still below the boom bust line. Overall, the combination of macroeconomic expectations of interest rate hikes and a strong US dollar continues to suppress copper prices, but there is a certain hedge between domestic peak season expectations and policy support.
Supply side: The continuous deepening of the supply side shortage pattern is the core support for this round of copper prices. The copper concentrate processing fee TC has dropped to a historic low of -194.2 US dollars per dry ton, and the global copper mine supply contraction is gradually reflected – the cumulative global copper mine production from January to June decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, and the production of the main producing country Chile in July decreased significantly by 9.4% year-on-year. The unstable operation of mines in South America and the delayed resumption of Grasberg production have exacerbated the tension at the mining end. In terms of refined copper, the domestic electrolytic copper production in August was 1.147 million tons, a slight increase compared to the previous month but a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year. Refineries are still below the break even line, and it is expected that the production of large-scale refineries will continue to decline slightly in September due to centralized maintenance. At the inventory level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has dropped to 88900 tons, a decrease of 51700 tons compared to the same period last year; The proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is as high as 50.92%, and the risk of forced warehousing still exists; COMEX inventory has continued to rise to historical highs due to the siphon effect of tariffs, further strengthening the regional mismatch pattern of “non US shortage and US surplus”.
Demand side: The demand side presents the characteristics of “traditional weakness and structural differentiation”. The expected operating rate of copper rod enterprises in August is 64.75%, a decrease of 2.26 percentage points compared to the previous month; The operating rate of copper cable enterprises is only 62.25%, and high copper prices continue to suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Air conditioning production has declined year-on-year, and the copper pipe operating rate has weakened. However, copper strips and foils have shown strong performance, and emerging fields such as new energy, energy storage, and AI data centers still provide structural support for copper consumption. Entering the traditional peak season of September, downstream demand has been released to some extent – after copper prices fell, some downstream enterprises bought inventory at low prices, and the operating rate of refined copper rods slightly increased month on month. Although the spot premium has fallen from a high level, it still remains in the range of 300-450 yuan/ton, and the stalemate between “tight supply” and “weak demand” has not fundamentally changed.
Influencing factors:The siphon effect of tariffs continues to reshape the global copper trade flow. The expectation of US refined copper tariffs has triggered cross ocean arbitrage, with a price difference of nearly $550 between COMEX and LME. A large amount of copper resources have flooded into US warehouses, and LME copper inventories have dropped from 400000 tons in May to around 230000 tons. The structural tightness of the scrap copper market – under the constraint of reverse invoicing compliance, compliant sources are scarce, and the price difference between refined and scrap has fallen from a high of 5410 yuan/ton to the range of 3300-3400 yuan/ton. In terms of the risk of forced warehousing, LME cancellations account for over 50% of warehouse receipts, and the recent month’s deep back structure shows that the tight spot market pattern is difficult to effectively alleviate in the short term.
In summary, copper prices have maintained a high and wide range of fluctuations in the interweaving of long and short factors this week. On a macro level, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the increasing expectation of interest rate hikes constitute the main bearish factors, with the strengthening of the US dollar suppressing copper prices; On the supply side, the historical low of TC in the mining sector, the substantial contraction of global copper production, and the low inventory at home and abroad jointly constitute the “hard bottom” of copper prices; On the demand side, the combination of traditional off-season consumption and high copper prices suppresses downstream procurement, but the structural demand in areas such as new energy and the expectation of the “Golden September” peak season provide marginal room for improvement. The current market pricing logic has shifted from global total supply and demand to regional mismatch under the crucial tax siphon.
In the short term, the core support of mining shortage and low inventory remains unchanged, and the demand during the traditional peak season from September to October needs to be verified. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high and strong oscillation pattern. The main operating range of Shanghai copper is referenced to 108000-110000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of Luntong 3M is referenced to 14100-14500 US dollars/ton. In the medium term, we need to be wary of the following marginal changes: the gradual recovery of some mines after October, the marginal decline in US copper hoarding demand, and the macro impact that may arise if the September Federal Reserve interest rate hike is implemented. In terms of operation, the bullish trend in copper prices may be maintained under the dominance of the supply side, but attention should be paid to high volatility and risk control when dealing with absolute highs.

From August 28th to September 4th, the domestic BDO price rose from 8091 yuan/ton to 8375 yuan/ton, with a price cycle increase of 3.50%, a month on month increase of 7.60%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.03%. The BDO market is strong and rising, with industry load remaining low. Transportation in Xinjiang is limited, and the supply of goods is tight. The mentality of holding goods manufacturers to support the market continues. The overall production of downstream industries has increased, the amount of raw material digestion has increased, the industry has effectively reduced inventory, and the market focus has been stimulated to continue to rise.
On the supply side, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has improved, but it is still relatively low, and the supply of goods is relatively average. The favorable supply side of BDO has weakened its impact.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, the price of raw material blue charcoal continues to rise, with strengthened cost support and tight supply. Calcium carbide enterprises are actively purchasing. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol tends to rise strongly. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are rising, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream production of PTMEG and PBT has increased, leading to an increase in demand. The demand for BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, demand exceeds supply and the industry is still in a state of destocking, supporting the mentality of holding manufacturers to support the market. The market focus is expected to continue to rise. Overall, analysts predict that the BDO market may continue to operate strongly.