Since early August, the overall ABS market has continued to trend weakly, with some grades experiencing a decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10250 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.61% compared to early August.

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since August, the load of the domestic ABS industry has increased. At the beginning of the month, Dalian Hengli equipment restarted, and the pipeline blowing task of Tianjin Dagu equipment ended. The overall load level of the industry has increased from 67% at the beginning of the month to over 71%, and the supply side continues to relax. The weekly average production is close to 140000 tons, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises is at a high level of 220000 tons, with ample supply maintained on site. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the high inventory levels in the industry are temporarily controllable. Overall, the supply side has weak support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In early August, the overall narrow range of ABS upstream three materials market increased, which limited the support for ABS cost side. Within the interval, the acrylonitrile production capacity of East China Zhejiang Petrochemical and Sinochem Quanzhou plants has decreased, leading to a decrease in industry capacity utilization and an upward trend in market quotations. And there will still be maintenance by enterprises such as Fushun Petrochemical in the future, and the supply will gradually decrease to alleviate excess pressure. At the same time, downstream major factories have stable contract demand, and short-term main manufacturers are expected to continue to raise prices. However, considering that the overall supply is still abundant and spot buying is still cautious, there may still be resistance to pushing up prices.
The domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly in early August, with a slight increase. On the supply side of the industry, there has been a slight decline with a slight increase in losses and a restart. The equipment in Shandong region has not been exported yet, and the overall supply is tight. At the beginning of the month, the demand side entered the market to replenish inventory at a low price, and the overall demand is now returning to rigid demand. The future market may mainly operate in a stable to weak manner, and the overall fluctuation range may be limited.
Recently, styrene has been mainly fluctuating. The overall supply of pure benzene raw materials has slightly contracted, with a reduction in both petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene. However, the market supply has been loose for a long time, with abundant sources of goods and limited price increases. On the other hand, the operating rate of styrene remains stable with small fluctuations, and there will be both market restart and production in the future. Insufficient guidance on downstream demand is expected to put pressure on the styrene market in the short term.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market is in the traditional off-season range, and terminal enterprises maintain a strong demand for supplementary orders. Since August, the production of electrical casing industry has decreased, and consumption has further shrunk. The geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has caused concerns in some markets, and the external market has added a more cautious atmosphere, resulting in a slow flow of goods. Domestic inventory levels remain high and sideways, with continued loose supply and ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
In early August, the domestic ABS market was weak and the consolidation trend continued. Upstream three materials, two rising and one fluctuating, ABS polymerization plant production load increased, and the demand side is at a low season level. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. It is expected that the ABS market will maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term.

Last week (August 4-10, 2025), the market trend of the main raw material for viscose staple fiber, dissolved pulp, was deadlocked, with relatively stable cost support. Downstream enterprises mainly executed early orders and purchased according to demand. The trading atmosphere in the market was average, and the industry had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The price fluctuations in the viscose staple fiber market were not significant, and the market was weak and stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 10th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 12980 yuan/ton, with a weak and stable price.
In terms of cost: Last week (August 4-10, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolving pulp, with a weak stalemate. As of now, the price of domestically produced dissolving pulp is around 6700 yuan/ton, the price of outer broad-leaved pulp is around 800 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 870 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remain stable but fluctuate slightly, with average cost support.
Abundant supply
The industry supply has declined, and the current daily operating rate in the market remains at around 75%. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers have declined compared to the previous period, and downstream yarn companies are picking up goods as needed. The overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market has decreased, but the market supply is still abundant, and the support from the supply side is limited.
Downstream essential replenishment
The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment has slightly increased, and price fluctuations are not significant. As of now, the price of ring spun R30S in Jiangsu region is around 17100 yuan/ton, and the price of ring spun R40S is around 18300 yuan/ton. The market is in a traditional off-season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn market transactions are not ideal. Only a few models of vortex spun cotton yarn have slightly better export orders. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish urgently needed goods, with no significant improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will be insufficient.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have high inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be poor in the short term; The terminal market is still in the traditional off-season of demand, with limited new orders placed. Downstream yarn mills are experiencing a certain degree of risk aversion and may maintain their demand for signing orders. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be moderate in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with sufficient overall supply. Downstream yarn mills mainly sign orders according to demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the price is expected to be accepted at 12800-13000 yuan/ton.

Price trend: (8.1-8.8)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on August 8th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122316 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.64%. This week, nickel prices showed a trend of first rising and then remaining stagnant, mainly influenced by macroeconomic policy expectations and market sentiment fluctuations, while the lack of clear fundamental drivers maintained an overall volatile consolidation pattern.
Macro level:
Weak US economic data: In July, the US added only 73000 non farm payroll jobs, with an expected 104000, and the May June data was significantly revised down by 258000. The rising unemployment rate has intensified market concerns about an economic slowdown.
The expectation of Fed interest rate cuts has strengthened: San Francisco Fed’s Daley said that “two interest rate cuts within the year are still appropriate”, and the market expects a 25 basis point cut in September and December respectively. The expectation of loose liquidity provides support for base metals, but weak demand limits their gains.
Global trade friction escalates: Trump signs executive order to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on countries such as India, Canada, and Brazil, further exacerbating market risk aversion.
Sustained domestic policy support: China’s third batch of 69 billion yuan of special treasury bond funds for trade in consumer goods has been released, and the fourth batch will be released in October. The annual 300 billion yuan fund plan is steadily advancing. The conference and the ‘anti internal competition’ policy boosted market confidence, with clear bottom support.
China’s July trade data exceeded expectations, but the global manufacturing PMI of 49.3% (contracted for two consecutive months) and the Asian manufacturing PMI of 50.5% slowed down, reflecting that the global economic recovery is still unstable.
Supply side:
Nickel ore price: The benchmark price for domestic trade of Indonesian nickel ore in the first cycle of August was $15028.33 per dry metric ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to the second cycle of July. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines remains stable, with an increase in port arrivals.
Inventory changes: Domestic Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 1084 tons to 20621 tons during the cycle, while LME nickel inventory increased by 3540 tons to 212232 tons during the cycle. The global inventory surplus pattern has not changed, suppressing the upward space for prices.
Demand side:
Stainless steel is facing certain production reduction expectations, weak support for nickel demand, and high inventory and weak demand problems still exist. On August 7th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was 13100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.15%.
New energy demand: The demand for nickel in the field of ternary precursors and batteries remains stable and has not shown significant growth.
Future outlook:
Macro led short-term trend: Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the trend of the US dollar remain key variables. If the September interest rate cut is implemented, nickel prices may rise slightly supported by liquidity. But the escalation of trade frictions may exacerbate market volatility and limit gains. The fundamentals are still weak: there is still excess pressure on the supply side, and there is no strong driving force in the stainless steel and new energy sectors on the demand side. The upward space for nickel prices is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since July 22nd, the domestic adipic acid market has been continuously rising due to bullish support. On July 22nd, the average market price of adipic acid was 7066 yuan/ton. On August 6th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.3%.

Liduo supports the upward trend of domestic adipic acid market
Since July 22nd, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid have risen, leading to increased demand in the end plastic industry and an overall increase in prices for adipic acid manufacturers. The domestic adipic acid market has seen an improvement in transactions and a rise in the market. As of August 6th, the average market price of adipic acid has risen to around 7300 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of over 3%.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid August, the rigid demand in the terminal industry will increase, and the raw material market will be boosted. The adipic acid market will continue to strengthen in the future.

The domestic acrylic acid market continues to weaken, with prices generally falling in various regions. As of August 6th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% compared to the beginning of this month (6650.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of raw materials:
Yesterday, the price of propylene in Shandong fell by 50 yuan, currently at 6130-6190 yuan/ton. Although it is expected that the price of propylene will rebound slightly in the near future, the production cost of acrylic acid is still at a relatively low level, and manufacturers still have some profit margin.
Price changes:
The mainstream transaction price in North China is 6150-6250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day
The price of refined acid in East China is 6600-6700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan
The price of 6300-6400 yuan/ton in southern China has also dropped by 50 yuan
Supply situation:
There are two Zibo units under maintenance in North China, but other factories have high production enthusiasm. The Putian unit in South China has been postponed to resume production in mid August, but the Qinzhou and Huizhou units are producing normally. Overall, the market supply is sufficient and there have been no shortages
In terms of demand:
The continuous hot and rainy weather continues to affect downstream demand, and downstream enterprises mainly focus on digesting inventory, only making a small amount of essential purchases, especially in downstream industries such as SAP and polyacrylamide where demand is weak
Market mentality:
The continuous decline in prices has led to a strong bearish sentiment in the market, with buyers generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for prices to further decline. Transactions are mainly low-priced small orders, and overall trading is light
Future outlook:
Although the raw material propylene may rise slightly, the profit margin of acrylic acid still exists. In the case of oversupply, it is expected that manufacturers will continue to offer discounts for shipments. In the short term, the acrylic acid market may maintain a weak operating trend

Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market. Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of August 5th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5812.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the beginning of this month (5825.00 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable to weak trend, with some manufacturers experiencing a slight decrease in quotes, and the overall market transaction center shifting downwards. This has reduced the production cost of melamine, but has not effectively boosted market demand. As of August 5th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1812.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
Inventory backlog: With the increase in supply and insufficient demand, some companies’ inventory begins to accumulate. This not only increases the operating costs of the enterprise, but may also have adverse effects on subsequent production and sales.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future outlook for supply-demand adjustment: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on August 5th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9590 yuan/ton, which was 520 yuan/ton lower than the market price of silicon metal # 441 on July 30th (10110 yuan/ton), a decrease of 5.14%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that as we enter August, the overall domestic silicon metal market has shown a continuous downward trend. Looking back at the end of July, the spot market price of silicon metal returned to the 10000 yuan mark, but the high level was difficult to hold. In the early days of the month, the focus of the silicon metal spot market continued to fall, with a daily decline of around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of August 5th, the market price of silicon metal 441 # in East China was referenced at 9500-9600 yuan/ton, Kunming was referenced at 9700-9900 yuan/ton, Huangpu Port was referenced at around 9400-9800 yuan/ton, Tianjin was referenced at 9300-9600 yuan/ton, Sichuan was referenced at 9200-9300 yuan/ton, and Shanghai was referenced at 9200-9300 yuan/ton. 9700~10000 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and production: According to incomplete statistics, the metal silicon production in July 2025 increased by about 3.2% month on month at 338000 tons, and decreased by about 30.6% year-on-year. In August, it is expected that the production of silicon metal will continue to increase slightly. After entering the flood season, the overall operation and supply of the silicon metal market have also increased.
In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for metallic silicon is mainly for rigid procurement, while the downstream polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon markets are generally stable. The procurement of raw materials is cautiously observed and mainly based on demand.
Market analysis in the future
Overall, the rise in the silicon metal market this time is largely influenced by macro news, and the overall support provided by the supply and demand side to the market is average. The improvement in transmission between supply and demand is still limited. Business Society’s silicon metal data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly fluctuate, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been consolidating at a low level recently. As of August 3, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 5862.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from 5875.00 yuan/ton on July 28.

Supply side: Recently, the market for maleic anhydride has been consolidating at a low level. In the first half of the week, the bidding in Yantai was poor, and the factory execution price slightly fell. In the second half of the week, the bidding price in Yantai slightly increased, and the factory execution price followed suit. Some major factories stopped selling, and transactions were still possible under the limited signing operation. At present, the load of the three lines in Yantai is 70%, and the equipment in Hubei is malfunctioning. The plan is to restore it in mid to early August; Recently, downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride have maintained a stock of essential goods and are mainly observing the situation. As of July 29th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong Province is around 5500 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5000 yuan/ton.
Upstream: Recently, the n-butane market has risen, and as of August 3rd, the price in Shandong is around 4830 yuan/ton.
Downstream: Recently, the unsaturated resin market has been weakly consolidating, and the low price of styrene in the upstream has limited support for the cost of unsaturated resin. Currently, unsaturated resin is in the off-season of consumption, and downstream transactions are average, which has limited support for unsaturated resin and weak market conditions.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that the current downstream unsaturated resin market for maleic anhydride is weak, and the procurement of maleic anhydride is limited; The closure or suspension of sales in some factories has given a certain boost to the maleic anhydride market, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

The demand for contracts within the month is stable, but there is a shortage of spot buying gas, and the acrylonitrile market operated at a low level in July. The price of acrylonitrile in the East China port market dropped from 8200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of short distance delivery in the Shandong market dropped from 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7950 yuan/ton at the end of the month.

Supply saturation and supply-demand imbalance
Supply side: The utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile plant capacity has increased. According to statistics, the production of acrylonitrile plants in China in July was 366800 tons, a month on month increase of 12.14%. The capacity utilization rate for this month is 75.94%, with a month on month increase of 5.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.86%.
Although the cross regional external mining of Jinfa has partially alleviated the pressure of excess supply in the East China region, it has also to some extent eased the pressure of market oversupply. However, the 400000 ton new unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical was put into operation in June, and the production capacity was further released and increased to 90% in July. The increase in production capacity has enhanced the overall supply capacity, but the market is still oversupplied, which has also suppressed market prices to a certain extent.
In addition, due to the poor profitability of acrylonitrile and its by-products, the production loss situation continues. At the end of the month, the operating load of the 400000 ton acrylonitrile unit at Zhenhai Refining and Chemical dropped to around 80%. The spot resources in the East China region are temporarily limited, and supplier quotations have slightly increased.
Demand side: The overall demand of downstream industries is in the off-season, among which the ABS industry, although its production increased in July, has limited demand for acrylonitrile; The operating load of the acrylamide industry may continue to decline, and downstream enterprises will purchase raw materials according to demand, resulting in weakened demand and suppressing the market price of acrylonitrile. Due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand, market participants generally have a pessimistic attitude, and businesses tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase cautiously, further exacerbating the market downturn.
Market forecast: Jilin Petrochemical’s new equipment and storage are expected to be put into operation in early August, and the early-stage maintenance equipment of Jinfa has been restarted one after another, so the industry supply will continue to increase. On the downstream side, the supply-demand contradiction has not fundamentally improved, and there is a lack of sustained momentum for price increases, with relatively average demand support. On the cost side, the price of raw material propylene is currently relatively low and is expected to rebound in stages. Cost pressure is expected to rise again, but space is limited. Affected by this, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will mainly experience low-level fluctuations.

Aluminum prices have fluctuated downward this week

Aluminum prices have fluctuated horizontally this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20596.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from the market average price of 20796.67 yuan/ton on July 25.
Fundamental Overview
Macro: The Federal Reserve meeting kept interest rates unchanged, which is in line with market expectations, and it is also the fifth consecutive time this year that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting has decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
According to social inventory data, the current social inventory of aluminum ingots is starting to recover, with a slight accumulation in recent times. On July 31st, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 544000 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from Monday and an increase of 34000 tons from last Thursday. ‌‌