In the first half of 2025, the domestic acrylonitrile market price rose and then fell, with supply changes dominating the price trend. While the equipment fluctuated, new production capacity was gradually released. At the beginning of the year, the market briefly rose sharply, and then fluctuated at a low level for a long time. During this period, the supply-demand gap between the mainland and port areas to some extent widened the price difference between the eastern and western markets, especially in mid to early April. The highest point of the first half of the year in the East China port area occurred on February 7th, at 11800-12000 yuan/ton, and in Shandong, at 11700-11900 yuan/ton. These levels reached a new high for the year and also set a new high since early January 2022.
Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
The operating rhythm of the acrylonitrile market in the first half of the year can be simply divided into two stages: after experiencing a roller coaster like market trend in January and February, the domestic acrylonitrile market has once again become flat since March, with prices fluctuating between 8000-9000 yuan/ton for most of the time. In May, the market further froze, hovering around 8100-8500 yuan/ton with slight fluctuations.
After a sharp rise in prices in the first quarter, the domestic acrylonitrile market experienced a rapid increase in prices from January to early February. In early January, due to the unexpected shutdown of a unit in Shandong Lihua Yi, the already tight supply situation was once again exacerbated, and the listing prices of the main factories increased significantly. Moreover, with low social inventory and limited inventory held by businesses, the spot market is extremely tight, and the listing prices of large factories continue to rise. In addition, there are many downstream stocking expectations before the Spring Festival holiday, so market prices continue to rise.
During the Spring Festival period, downstream industry demand weakened. Therefore, some traders, in order to seize market share and lower sales prices, restarted the previously repaired equipment one after another. Coupled with the continuous production of new equipment by Yulong Petrochemical, the market supply pressure gradually increased. Under the influence of bearish sentiment, suppliers actively shipped, resulting in frequent low price offers in the spot market. In mid March, the decline in the acrylonitrile market slowed down, and multiple acrylonitrile production units announced production reduction plans, resulting in a decrease in supply expectations and a corresponding reduction in low price offers on site.
China’s Acrylonitrile Production Capacity Increase Plan from 2025 to 2026:
Continued low-level fluctuations in the second quarter: In April, Yulong Petrochemical and Sinochem Quanzhou’s new facilities were put into operation, and low-priced goods continued to flow out, which suppressed the mentality of industry players and led to a continuous decline in spot market quotes. Before and after the May Day holiday, the acrylonitrile market remained relatively calm, with little change in the overall transaction focus. However, as the situation of tight spot supply in some areas gradually emerged, acrylonitrile factories raised their prices one after another. In late May, Shandong Haili restarted, and after several days of stalemate, factory prices fell, and the spot market also followed suit. In June, the 400000 ton new plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Company was put into operation one after another, and the supply continued to increase. However, due to cost pressure and local supply variables, market trading was deadlocked.
Market forecast: Due to the release of new production capacity in Zhenhai Refining and Chemical, the overall supply of acrylonitrile is expected to increase in July, while consumption may weaken to some extent due to the traditional off-season. Among them, the operating load of the acrylamide industry may continue to decline. Therefore, the overall fundamentals of the acrylonitrile market are weak in the short term, and prices lack effective rebound momentum. However, cost drivers still exist. The increase in supply variables caused by unplanned parking and load reduction in the second half of the year will determine when the market rebounds based on the degree of supply reduction.
http://www.lubonchem.com/ |