Data monitoring shows that the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on March 20 was 101.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01), and up 20.36% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the market price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China fell sharply in the first half of March, with a decrease of about 2.47%. On the first day, the market reported 1925 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, 1877.5 yuan/ton. Currently, water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have normal production, abundant inventory, weak demand for downstream purchase orders, insufficient support for domestic polyaluminum chloride, and weak market conditions.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the Business Society, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid has increased from 166 yuan/ton on the 1st to 198 yuan/ton on the 20th, an increase of 19.28%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness is generally low. The analysis shows that hydrochloric acid is mainly characterized by insufficient support and small fluctuations in recent years.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data from the Business News Agency, since March, domestic liquefied natural gas has experienced a significant fluctuation and declined: on March 1st, it was mainly reported at 6036 yuan/ton, and on March 20th, it was mainly reported at 4412 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 26.91%; The market demand is sluggish, the situation of oversupply is increasing, and liquid plants have a strong attitude towards inventory discharge. In addition to the reduction in the price of feed gas, the price of liquefied natural gas continues to decline. It is expected that in the short term, domestic LNG prices will be mainly consolidated and operated in a narrow range.

Future forecast: The market for raw materials has been reduced due to fluctuations, and polyaluminum chloride manufacturers have sufficient inventory. Downstream demand continues to be weak, with excessive supply and insufficient demand. It is expected that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride will continue to be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to data from the Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8175 yuan/ton, which was 8216 yuan/ton compared to the average factory price on March 13. This week, the domestic thermal phosphoric acid price fell by 0.51%.

According to data from Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8300 yuan/ton, which was 1.22% higher than the average market price of 8200 yuan/ton on March 13.

2、 Market analysis

The price of thermal phosphoric acid decreased slightly this week. At present, market demand is sluggish and the market is weak. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is not good, and phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors are mainly wait-and-see. The price of wet process phosphoric acid rose slightly this week. The price of raw phosphate rock is running at a high level, with strong cost support. As of March 20, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is around 7950 to 8200 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is around 8200 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is around 8000-8200 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is around 7500-8900 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell this week. The manufacturer has issued multiple preliminary orders, and the devices of many enterprises are currently in maintenance status, so no external quotation will be made temporarily. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and overall, there are fewer transactions in the market, focusing on maintaining stable operation. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 28500-32000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. This week, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable at a high level. The overall supply side of the phosphate rock field remains tight, and the supply side continues to support high market quotations. With the arrival of the spring plowing season, the downstream demand of the terminal continues to increase, and the downstream demand side of the phosphate rock performs steadily.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the Business Society believe that the market trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is weak recently, and the hot process phosphoric acid market is dominated by wait-and-see. Currently, there are relatively few transactions on the market, and downstream purchases are made on demand. It is expected that the weak price of phosphoric acid will be dominated by consolidation and operation in the short term.

The market’s concern about the banking crisis in Europe and the United States eased somewhat, and most varieties of the domestic commodity market closed higher on March 17. PTA futures strengthened, with key contracts gaining 3.14%. The spot market rose with the average market price in East China at 5827 yuan/ton, up 2.27% from the previous day.

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly, boosting sentiment in the energy and chemical sector. In addition, some PX factories were reduced in load and delayed in restarting, resulting in a decrease in expected incremental production, which to some extent boosted PX prices and supported PTA’s cost side. In terms of its own supply, the PTA device load has slightly increased to over 76%, with supply increasing slightly. However, in March, the supply was mostly concentrated in the hands of a few traders, and some traders closed their orders.

The downstream polyester maintenance stage is on the high side, but production and sales are poor, and the demand for PTA is weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong, and procurement is mainly for immediate needs. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been lowered to below 70%.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that overall, cost PX support is still strong, coupled with a tight supply and circulation of PTA goods, which is the main factor driving the strength of PTA prices. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to PTA production, spot market liquidity, and downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 16, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4608 yuan/ton, compared to 5044 yuan/ton on March 10, and the domestic price of liquefied natural gas fell by 8.64%.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic LNG prices rebounded slightly after falling sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the market demand was sluggish, the oversupply situation increased, and the liquid plant had a strong attitude towards inventory discharge. In addition to the reduction in the price of raw gas, the price of liquefied natural gas continued to decline. On Wednesday, the market stopped falling and warmed up. After a continuous decline, the liquid plant began to stabilize and increase prices. In some regions, liquid plants have reduced production or suspended shipments, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply.

On March 16th, the offer of liquefied natural gas in the mainstream domestic market was as follows:

Region/ offer

Inner Mongolia region/ 4500-4750 yuan/ton

Shaanxi region/ 4480-4750 yuan/ton

Shanxi region/ 4600-4900 yuan/ton

Ningxia region/ 4480-4570 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 4900-5000 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 4900-4950 yuan/ton

Sichuan region/ 4650-5000 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5300-5350 yuan/ton

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts from Business News believe that the domestic liquefied natural gas market has rebounded recently, with downstream on-demand procurement being the main focus, and terminal demand needs to be released. It is expected that in the short term, domestic LNG prices will be mainly consolidated and operated in a narrow range.

Trade name: neopentyl glycol

Latest price (March 15): 10600.00 yuan/ton

On March 15, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, down 266.67 yuan/ton or 2.45% from March 14. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 41.65% year-on-year. The market price of isobutyraldehyde, the raw material, has fallen slightly recently, and the cost support has weakened. The market situation of downstream polyester resin is general, and downstream customers are not motivated to purchase neopentyl glycol.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol may fall slightly, mainly in consolidation. The average market price is about 10000 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the terminal printing and paper industries have resumed operation since March, with demand support, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to fluctuate and rise. On March 1, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 806 yuan/ton. On March 14, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 823 yuan/ton, up 2.07%.

The terminal demand turns weak and the hydrogen peroxide market rises, ushering in a callback

Since March, the demand of the terminal paper printing industry has increased, the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased is acceptable, the transaction of hydrogen peroxide market has improved, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have continuously raised the factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the overall market has risen. The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong is 750 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui is 850 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Hangzhou is 1150 yuan/ton; The overall price rose by 50 yuan/ton.

This week, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminal turned weak, and the market of hydrogen peroxide in some regions declined. The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei was 850 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong was 770 yuan/ton, which was stable. The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui was 850 yuan/ton, which was stable.

The chemical analyst of Business News believes that the terminal demand is declining, and the hydrogen peroxide market is expected to remain weak in the future.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell and rebounded this week. The average price of Shandong market on March 12 was 2701.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of 2701.50 yuan/ton on March 6.

On March 12, the petroleum coke commodity index was 210.12, which was the same as yesterday, down 48.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 214.13% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of petroleum coke in refineries rose and fell in a mixed way this week. The local refineries actively arranged stocks, and the trading volume was average. The downstream enterprises were cautious about receiving goods. HSBC Petrochemical delayed the shutdown of coking unit for maintenance from March 10, and the refinery temporarily sold inventory.

On the one hand, due to the strong economic data, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to raise interest rates more sharply than expected to suppress inflation. The strong implication of Powell’s speech increased the probability that the market would raise the terminal interest rate at the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve on March 21-22. Investors believed that the possibility of raising the interest rate by 50 basis points at the meeting rose to more than 70%, which affected the oil market. On the other hand, the demand side still has a positive impact from China’s optimistic demand expectations. At the same time, many institutions also raised their expectations for China’s economic growth. The Secretary-General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that China’s oil demand will increase by 500000 to 600000 barrels per day in 2023, and the increase in demand in Asia will make the price of crude oil market recover.

The price of calcined coke fell this week; Silicon metal market declined slightly; The downstream electrolytic aluminum price went down. As of March 12, the price was 18243.33 yuan/ton; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, and are cautious in receiving goods.

According to the petroleum coke analyst of Business News, the international crude oil fell this week, and the cost support of petroleum coke was limited; At present, the inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports has declined, but it is still at a high level as a whole, with sufficient market supply and strong wait-and-see sentiment; Local refining enterprises actively de-stock, and downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that petroleum coke will be mainly refined in the near future.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 10.53%.

The domestic paraxylene supply is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is about 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 29%. The recent price trend of PX external market is volatile. As of the 9th, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market is 1006-1008 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1031-1033 dollars/ton CFR China. The low external price is negative for the domestic market. The recent operating rate of PX devices in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene devices in Asia is about 60%, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

The price of crude oil fell this week. As of September 9, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.72/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.59/barrel. On the macro level, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell publicly said that due to the strong economic data, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to raise interest rates more sharply than expected in order to suppress inflation. The Group of Seven (G7) and its allies’ oil price ceiling measures against Russia have worked well. The risks of Russian oil supply are decreasing in the short term, and the trend of crude oil price is falling. The domestic paraxylene market price is temporarily stable due to the decline of crude oil price.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose slightly this week. As of the 10th, the average price of PTA market was 5850-5900 yuan/ton, up 1.67%. In terms of PTA supply, there are many PTA devices that have been overhauled and reduced in production at present. The industry has started about 72%. PTA has been slightly destocking. In terms of supply and demand, PTA3 has been expected to destock in April, supporting the strength of PTA prices. Downstream polyester starts remain at a high level of more than 80%, and domestic orders in spring and summer have increased. Under the background of moderate recovery of demand, although there is no significant increase, it can maintain at a high level of rigid demand. However, foreign trade orders are still not improving. The factory feedback is that new orders are insufficient, and the final foreign trade orders of the weaving factory are shrinking. On the whole, the downstream market is slowly recovering, and the price trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the current oil market is playing a long and short game, and the recovery of demand in Asia has brought some benefits, but the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States still exists. The oil market in the future will still face fundamental pressure, and the downstream market of the terminal will still face insufficient demand, as well as the uncertain prospect of foreign trade. The PX market supply is normal, and the price trend of paraxylene market is expected to be temporarily stable in the later period.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the spot market price of gold on March 8, 2023 was 413.48 yuan/g, down 1.95% from the beginning of the month (March 1), and up 0.88% from the early average spot market price of 409.89 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (January 1).

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of silver market on March 8, 2023 was 4742.33 yuan/kg, down 4.06% per day, down 2.49% from the beginning of the month (March 1), and down 11.28% from the average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 5345 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), an increase of 8.56%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trend of precious metal gold and silver will converge, but in April and August, silver will fall deeper, and the recent recovery will be more obvious. In December, silver will continue the strong market of last month, and gold will start to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the precious metal gold and silver will consolidate at high levels, and fall slightly in February.

Expectations of interest rate increase disturb the short-term pressure of precious metals

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the Senate continued to release hawkish signals, and the expectation of raising interest rates by 50BP in March was significantly higher. According to the CME Federal Reserve observation data, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25BP in March to drop sharply to 29.5%, while the probability of raising interest rates by 50BP has soared to 70.5%; The probability of raising interest rate by 25BP in May is 60.3%, and the probability of raising interest rate by 50BP is 18.6%; The probability of a 25BP interest rate increase in June is 56%, and the probability of no interest rate increase is 25.9%. The peak of the mainstream expected interest rate will move up to 5.5% – 5.75%.

The strengthening of the expectation of interest rate increase in the short term and the upward shift of the peak of the mainstream expected interest rate, to a certain extent, suppress the price of the precious metal market, and also affect the change of the trading volume in the investment market to a certain extent.

Decrease in ETF positions

On March 7, SPDR gold ETF position continued to decrease by 5.5 tons to 906.62 tons; IShares silver ETF position decreased by 14.3 tons to 14857.64 tons.

Don’t be too bearish in the future

However, in the medium and long term, the position of precious metal ETF showed a rebound trend. The central banks of all countries have also been on the way of net purchase of gold. At home, China’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of February were $3133.15 billion, a decrease of $51.312 billion on a month-on-month basis. At the end of February, the gold reserve was at 65.92 million ounces (about 2050.34 tons), an increase of 800000 ounces (about 24.88 tons) on a month-on-month basis, marking the fourth consecutive month of increasing gold holdings.

Precious metals are more sensitive to macro policy factors due to their strong monetary attributes. In the short term, the price of precious metals is still subject to tightening expectations and economic recession concerns. However, in the medium and long term, the process of interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve and central banks is facing a slowdown, and the leading impact of interest rate increase expectation on gold price will be weakened; The impact of economic data will increase significantly and become the leading factor. In addition, the international geopolitical risk events constitute the support of gold price, and some of the international hedging funds seek the gold hedging function, so in the medium and long term, the precious metal bulls still have the strength of the game, and in the short term, it is expected that the interest rate increase will prevail, and the price of precious metals will be mainly stable and weak.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market continued to be weak, and the spot price was weak and stable. As of March 6, the average price of ABS sample products was 11833.33 yuan/ton, up and down by – 1.39% from the average price level a month ago, according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials was mixed in recent years. Among them, the market of acrylonitrile stabilized slightly last week. Some factories issued maintenance plans, while the supply was stable. Besides, the goods in the field are flat, and the enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation is general. The market is mixed, and the acrylonitrile market is expected to consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market fell back from a high level. Due to the limited increase in synthetic rubber, the profit was under pressure, which affected the decline in the industry operating rate, and the demand of butadiene market gradually weakened. The resource side of superimposed shipments increased, and supply and demand were weak. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term.

Last week, the styrene market in Shandong rebounded and rose in a narrow range. Although the terminal demand has not improved, the port inventory is still at a high level to be digested. However, pure benzene rose due to the impact of the recovery of international crude oil price, and the cost side supported the spot. However, at present, styrene is still in the process of deionization, and the market may be difficult to further strengthen.

On the supply side: the ABS industry has been running at high load for more than a month, and the operating rate was still at 96% at the end of last month. Recently, due to supply-side pressure and fierce competition for new materials, petrochemical plants have begun to reduce the burden independently, but last week the industry load fell by a narrow margin. At present, the supply of goods in the field continues to be abundant, and domestic inventory accumulates. The factory was forced to reduce the ex-factory price in order to remove the stock, and the supply side dragged the spot price.

Demand: Downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, are generally motivated to stock goods recently, and some manufacturers still have pre-holiday raw material inventory to digest. The overall demand improvement is limited, the overall trend is weak, and the flow of goods in the field is poor.

Aftermarket forecast

At the beginning of March, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was mixed, which supported the cost side of ABS generally. The high starting point of the petrochemical plant fell back in a narrow range, and the market supply of goods was abundant and the inventory rose. The demand-side support is poor, the mentality of merchants is weak, and the operation is biased to yield profits and take orders. It is expected that the ABS market will continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradiction in the short term.