As of September 10th, the price of 0 # zinc was 27529 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% from the zinc price of 26948 yuan/ton on September 1st.
fundamentals
In early September, zinc prices showed an accelerated upward trend, becoming the strongest performer in the non-ferrous metal sector. The core logic of this round of price increase lies in the substantial transmission from tight mines to tight ingots. In terms of trend rhythm, the first half of the year showed a pulse like characteristic of “rising slightly, stepping back slightly, and then rising again”. Overall, the zinc price center in the first half of the year has significantly increased compared to the end of August, but spot market transactions have almost stagnated, and downstream consumers generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices. Spot prices remain at a discount, and futures prices have risen significantly faster than spot prices.
Supply side:
As of early September, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has decreased by 300 yuan compared to the previous period, and the processing fee index for imported zinc concentrate has dropped to -124.5 US dollars per dry ton, both at historically low levels. A negative processing fee depth means that smelters not only cannot profit from processing fees, but also have to bear costs. Coupled with the decline in the price of by-product sulfuric acid, smelting losses continue to expand, and multiple refineries (in Guangxi, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other places) have experienced sudden maintenance and production cuts.
Domestic zinc ingot inventory experienced an unexpected decline in the first half of the year. The core driving force for the rapid clearance of inventory is the opening of the export window – after the Shanghai London ratio fell below the critical threshold of 7.0, the profit window for zinc ingot export sales and delivery officially opened, and a large number of domestic zinc ingots flowed into overseas markets. This’ inventory transfer ‘behavior has caused a temporary shortage of domestic spot goods in the short term, but the majority of the destocking volume is for export sources rather than the actual digestion of terminal consumption.
Demand side:
The weighted operating rate of downstream primary processing enterprises is only 51.44%, which is at a low level in the past five years. The high-frequency production of galvanized structural parts, die-casting zinc alloys, and zinc oxide has all declined. The overall performance is weaker than seasonal. After the zinc price rose to 26000 yuan/ton, there was a strong fear of high prices and cautious procurement in the downstream market. Spot trading in Guangdong was sluggish, and galvanizing and die-casting alloy factories had low purchasing intentions. Terminal hardware accessory factories faced the risk of production reduction and shutdown. Galvanized pipe manufacturers have also postponed their production schedule for September due to low terminal consumption and high zinc cost. Terminal real estate remains the main drag, and although infrastructure orders have resilience, they have not yet formed a synergy.
The current logic chain supporting zinc prices, including tight mining, reduced smelting production, and domestic destocking, is still intact, and there have been no false signals in the short term. Weak follow-up of spot prices: After the rapid rise in zinc prices, downstream sentiment of fear of high prices has intensified, spot prices remain at a discount, terminal order growth is limited, and peak season consumption has not yet been fully realized. Driven by the price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the maintenance plans of some domestic smelters have been postponed again, and the actual production reduction in September may be lower than expected. Short term zinc prices are likely to maintain a pattern of high volatility and strong bias. Currently in the stage of “strong trend+high skill buying”, it is not advisable to chase after the rise. In the early stage, if you place multiple orders, you can consider taking profits on the high portion and wait for the price to stabilize after hitting the 10 day or 20 day moving average before looking for a technical entry point to buy on dips.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (September 2-8), the PA66 market has been in a stalemate in the early stage. In the later stage of the week, factories concentrated on raising their ex factory quotations, and spot prices quickly rose. The benchmark spot price increased from 18166.67 yuan/ton to 19100.00 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.14%. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 60 day cycle price is in the high range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range; The moving average model sends a clear upward signal, indicating a strengthening short-term trend, but the short-term price has already reached a high level, and there is limited room for further upward movement.
2、 Cost analysis
The price of upstream adiponitrile raw materials has risen, and the strength of upstream chemicals such as acrylonitrile has driven up the cost of raw materials, resulting in increased support for PA66 production costs. In the early stage, the price of slices was close to the cost line of the industry, and the pressure of production enterprises to lose money was greater. The willingness to ship at low prices was weakened. Leading enterprises raised prices and concentrated price increases, pushing the focus of market quotations upward. However, there is currently no significant contraction in the supply of raw materials, and the foundation for sustained cost increases is not yet available.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the overall operation of PA66 plants in China remains relatively high, with sufficient market supply and no obvious shortage of supply; As prices rise, manufacturers’ willingness to support prices has strengthened, but there is currently no large-scale initiative to reduce production and maintain prices. In terms of demand, the downstream modification, injection molding, and airbag wire industries are expected to experience the traditional peak season of Jinjiu. Some downstream industries are concerned about the continued rise of raw materials, leading to precautionary restocking and a rebound in inquiry and transaction volume; However, there has not been an explosive growth in actual orders at the terminal, and downstream factories have limited acceptance of high-level raw materials. Most enterprises still maintain on-demand procurement, and there is a weak willingness to stockpile in large quantities. Under the game of supply and demand, costs and peak season expectations drive prices upwards, but terminal demand forms a certain constraint on the upward trend.
4、 Short term forecast
In the short term, the PA66 spot market is likely to continue its strong and volatile pattern. The support of raw material costs, expectations for the peak season of the Golden September, and downstream replenishment behavior have formed favorable conditions for the market, and there is still a possibility of price increase; However, the short-term price is already at a high level in the 60 day cycle, and the follow-up strength of terminal demand is limited. The conditions for continuing to surge sharply are insufficient. Beware of the risk of a pullback in transactions after the rise. It is expected that PA66 will fluctuate in the short-term range of 18700-19600 yuan/ton, with a focus on tracking the trend of raw material adiponitrile and the release of downstream real orders.

1、 Market Overview: Prices have slightly increased, maintaining high levels of operation
This week, the domestic acrylic acid market showed a fluctuating upward trend. On September 8th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 8350.00 yuan/ton. Compared to the 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1st), the weekly average has increased by 1.42%.
From the perspective of price trends, after a brief period of stability, the market experienced a significant upward trend at the beginning of the week (with a 1.21% increase on September 4th), and then stabilized and consolidated at a high level.
Fundamental analysis: supply-demand game and cost divergence
Despite the rise in finished product prices, the upstream raw material side has shown the opposite trend:
On September 8th, the benchmark price of upstream raw material propylene was 9034.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10% from the beginning of this week. The decline in raw material prices theoretically weakens the cost support for acrylic acid.
Against the backdrop of a decline in raw material prices, the price of acrylic acid remains strong or even rises, mainly due to the supply-demand game. In order to maintain profit margins, acrylic acid factories and holders have adopted a strategy of stable price quotations, offsetting the negative impact of cost side declines. The control of spot circulation in the market forces downstream to accept high prices.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, the acrylic acid market is currently in a situation of “strong reality, weak cost”.
Short term forecast: Due to the upward divergence of the moving average system and its historical high, market inertia still exists. It is expected that acrylic acid will continue its trend of interval consolidation and operation next week.
Focus: It is necessary to closely monitor whether the raw material propylene has stopped falling and stabilized. If propylene continues to decline significantly, it may further compress factory profits, leading to reduced production to maintain prices or forcing factories to lower factory prices; On the contrary, if downstream demand can continue to follow up and high priced transactions can increase volume, prices are expected to further break through.

1、 Price trend: The benchmark price is moderately rising, and spot prices are stable with small movements

As of September 7th, the benchmark price of melamine was 6212.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% from the beginning of the month (6175.00 yuan/ton). From the daily prices this week, the price remained stable at 6200 yuan/ton from September 1st to 4th, and rose to 6212.50 yuan/ton on September 5th and 6th, with a daily increase or decrease of 0.00%. Only September 4th saw a slight increase of 0.20%. The overall performance is characterized by a narrow range consolidation and a slight shift in the center of gravity, with a pattern of “large stability and small movement”.
2、 Technical signal: The direction of the mean deviation is different, and the trend is judged as “oscillation”
According to the core principle of spot market analysis tools, an upper crossing of the moving average (from negative to positive) indicates an upward signal, while a lower crossing of the moving average (from positive to negative) indicates a downward or adjustment signal.
Analysts believe that the three directions of the mean deviation are not completely consistent and do not meet the clear trend determination criteria, therefore the current price trend is classified as oscillation.
From a historical percentile perspective, the current price is at the median level in both the 60 day and 90 day cycles, with a relatively balanced range of fluctuations; Being at a low level in a one-year cycle indicates limited space below and some support for prices.
3、 Fundamental analysis of supply and demand
1. Supply side: low to medium operating rate, frequent device dynamics
This week, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic melamine industry remained at a medium low level of around 52% to 54%. In terms of equipment, the market supply increment is limited. In addition, overseas SKW Pistritz in Germany has shut down its 80000 ton/year plant, tightening the available supply of goods in the European region and providing a certain boost to domestic export expectations.
Overall, the contraction of the supply side provides bottom support for prices, but the increment brought by the resumption of production equipment also limits the upward space.
2. Cost side: Raw material urea continues to rise, with increased cost support
As of September 7th, the benchmark price of urea was 1722.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% from the beginning of the month (1715.00 yuan/ton). The continuous rise of raw material urea is one of the core factors that have supported the recent price of melamine. Urea rose due to the strong coal prices and international prices, transmitting upward momentum from the cost side to melamine.
It should be noted that the actual demand for urea has not shown significant improvement, and if the subsequent rise in urea slows down, the cost support effect may weaken.
3. Demand side: Terminal demand is flat, with obvious resistance to high prices
Downstream demand continues to be weak. The domestic demand for sheet metal is constrained by the sluggish real estate market, and the industrial sector only maintains basic needs to keep up. Downstream consumers have a strong resistance to “high priced” sources of goods. At present, it is a relatively off-season for sheet metal, with limited stock follow-up. The overall market is in a supply-demand game, with supply contraction and cost increase providing price support. However, weak demand is suppressing the upper space, and offers are mainly flexible.
4、 Comprehensive outlook
In the short term, the melamine market is likely to continue its volatile consolidation pattern: raw material urea is rising, and the industry is operating at a medium low level; The one-year price position is relatively low, and the downward space is limited. The terminal demand is flat, and downstream high prices resist; The mean difference signal has not formed a clear trend direction.

Subsequent attention should be focused on the trend of raw material urea prices, changes in plant operating rates, and whether the 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average can form a clear “moving average upward crossing” signal. If this signal appears, it may indicate the start of an upward trend; On the contrary, in a supply-demand stalemate, the market will continue to experience narrow fluctuations.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices fluctuated widely. As of September 4th, copper prices were reported at 110031.67 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the beginning of the week and up 37.23% year-on-year.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 234175 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.04% from the beginning of the week.
Macro wise: The overall macro outlook this week is bearish. Federal Reserve’s Walsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, emphasizing the unwavering 2% inflation target. The probability of a rate hike in September has risen from less than 40% to about 60%, and the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 90%. The US dollar index rose 0.85% to 99.68 for the week, suppressing copper prices denominated in US dollars. In terms of geography, although the situation between the United States and Iran has eased, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and market reactions tend to be sluggish. On the domestic front, the manufacturing PMI in August rebounded by 0.6% to 49.8% month on month, indicating a slight increase in economic activity but still below the boom bust line. Overall, the combination of macroeconomic expectations of interest rate hikes and a strong US dollar continues to suppress copper prices, but there is a certain hedge between domestic peak season expectations and policy support.
Supply side: The continuous deepening of the supply side shortage pattern is the core support for this round of copper prices. The copper concentrate processing fee TC has dropped to a historic low of -194.2 US dollars per dry ton, and the global copper mine supply contraction is gradually reflected – the cumulative global copper mine production from January to June decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, and the production of the main producing country Chile in July decreased significantly by 9.4% year-on-year. The unstable operation of mines in South America and the delayed resumption of Grasberg production have exacerbated the tension at the mining end. In terms of refined copper, the domestic electrolytic copper production in August was 1.147 million tons, a slight increase compared to the previous month but a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year. Refineries are still below the break even line, and it is expected that the production of large-scale refineries will continue to decline slightly in September due to centralized maintenance. At the inventory level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has dropped to 88900 tons, a decrease of 51700 tons compared to the same period last year; The proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is as high as 50.92%, and the risk of forced warehousing still exists; COMEX inventory has continued to rise to historical highs due to the siphon effect of tariffs, further strengthening the regional mismatch pattern of “non US shortage and US surplus”.
Demand side: The demand side presents the characteristics of “traditional weakness and structural differentiation”. The expected operating rate of copper rod enterprises in August is 64.75%, a decrease of 2.26 percentage points compared to the previous month; The operating rate of copper cable enterprises is only 62.25%, and high copper prices continue to suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Air conditioning production has declined year-on-year, and the copper pipe operating rate has weakened. However, copper strips and foils have shown strong performance, and emerging fields such as new energy, energy storage, and AI data centers still provide structural support for copper consumption. Entering the traditional peak season of September, downstream demand has been released to some extent – after copper prices fell, some downstream enterprises bought inventory at low prices, and the operating rate of refined copper rods slightly increased month on month. Although the spot premium has fallen from a high level, it still remains in the range of 300-450 yuan/ton, and the stalemate between “tight supply” and “weak demand” has not fundamentally changed.
Influencing factors:The siphon effect of tariffs continues to reshape the global copper trade flow. The expectation of US refined copper tariffs has triggered cross ocean arbitrage, with a price difference of nearly $550 between COMEX and LME. A large amount of copper resources have flooded into US warehouses, and LME copper inventories have dropped from 400000 tons in May to around 230000 tons. The structural tightness of the scrap copper market – under the constraint of reverse invoicing compliance, compliant sources are scarce, and the price difference between refined and scrap has fallen from a high of 5410 yuan/ton to the range of 3300-3400 yuan/ton. In terms of the risk of forced warehousing, LME cancellations account for over 50% of warehouse receipts, and the recent month’s deep back structure shows that the tight spot market pattern is difficult to effectively alleviate in the short term.
In summary, copper prices have maintained a high and wide range of fluctuations in the interweaving of long and short factors this week. On a macro level, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the increasing expectation of interest rate hikes constitute the main bearish factors, with the strengthening of the US dollar suppressing copper prices; On the supply side, the historical low of TC in the mining sector, the substantial contraction of global copper production, and the low inventory at home and abroad jointly constitute the “hard bottom” of copper prices; On the demand side, the combination of traditional off-season consumption and high copper prices suppresses downstream procurement, but the structural demand in areas such as new energy and the expectation of the “Golden September” peak season provide marginal room for improvement. The current market pricing logic has shifted from global total supply and demand to regional mismatch under the crucial tax siphon.
In the short term, the core support of mining shortage and low inventory remains unchanged, and the demand during the traditional peak season from September to October needs to be verified. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high and strong oscillation pattern. The main operating range of Shanghai copper is referenced to 108000-110000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of Luntong 3M is referenced to 14100-14500 US dollars/ton. In the medium term, we need to be wary of the following marginal changes: the gradual recovery of some mines after October, the marginal decline in US copper hoarding demand, and the macro impact that may arise if the September Federal Reserve interest rate hike is implemented. In terms of operation, the bullish trend in copper prices may be maintained under the dominance of the supply side, but attention should be paid to high volatility and risk control when dealing with absolute highs.

From August 28th to September 4th, the domestic BDO price rose from 8091 yuan/ton to 8375 yuan/ton, with a price cycle increase of 3.50%, a month on month increase of 7.60%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.03%. The BDO market is strong and rising, with industry load remaining low. Transportation in Xinjiang is limited, and the supply of goods is tight. The mentality of holding goods manufacturers to support the market continues. The overall production of downstream industries has increased, the amount of raw material digestion has increased, the industry has effectively reduced inventory, and the market focus has been stimulated to continue to rise.
On the supply side, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has improved, but it is still relatively low, and the supply of goods is relatively average. The favorable supply side of BDO has weakened its impact.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, the price of raw material blue charcoal continues to rise, with strengthened cost support and tight supply. Calcium carbide enterprises are actively purchasing. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol tends to rise strongly. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are rising, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream production of PTMEG and PBT has increased, leading to an increase in demand. The demand for BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, demand exceeds supply and the industry is still in a state of destocking, supporting the mentality of holding manufacturers to support the market. The market focus is expected to continue to rise. Overall, analysts predict that the BDO market may continue to operate strongly.

The magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region has slightly increased, with an average market price of 16000 yuan/ton as of the end of the month and 15950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 0.31%.
This month’s market analysis
In August 2026, the domestic magnesium market showed a typical narrow range oscillation and bottom grinding and energy storage trend, with an overall price range between 15750 yuan/ton and 16000 yuan/ton. At the beginning of August, the magnesium price was about 15950 yuan/ton, and it closed at 16000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a slight increase of about 0.31% throughout the month. However, there were multiple ups and downs during the month, and the overall trend was characterized by “stability in the front, weakness in the back, and a tail up at the end of the month”.
Fundamentals:
On the supply side, as we enter August, most maintenance manufacturers have resumed production, and spot supply has significantly increased compared to the previous period. The operating rate of the entire industry maintains a steady upward trend, and the overall supply in the spot market is in a relatively loose range. The differentiation characteristics of the supply side are more prominent – some factories have completed maintenance and resumed production, while some enterprises are still constrained by factors such as losses and equipment maintenance and have not yet resumed work, and some factories are actively reducing production capacity due to long-term sustained losses. However, in terms of overall quantity, the supply increment is controllable, and the overall supply and demand maintain a relatively loose pattern.
The overall demand of downstream terminals on the demand side is weak, and the upward momentum of the magnesium market is insufficient. Downstream companies generally maintain a low inventory turnover model, and the entire industry adopts a strategy of on-demand procurement. The market lacks effective support from centralized buying. Downstream magnesium powder and magnesium alloy have followed suit, but there is insufficient demand follow-up. Magnesium alloy processing fees continue to be under pressure due to factors such as sufficient inventory, impact of non-standard sources, high-temperature maintenance of die-casting enterprises, and plastic substitution for two wheelers.
The overall increase in raw material costs on the cost side directly raises the comprehensive cost of magnesium smelting. The current comprehensive cost of magnesium has significantly exceeded the spot market price, and the industry as a whole has entered a loss zone. The extent of losses for small and medium-sized smelting enterprises continues to expand, further highlighting the situation of cash flow pressure. Most magnesium factories have fallen into a situation of inverted production and sales, with prices close to the comprehensive production cost line, leaving extremely limited room for pricing.
Future forecast
The magnesium price in September is likely to show a trend of “stable to strong, fluctuating and recovering”, and the price center is expected to slightly shift upwards. However, due to weak demand, the upward height is limited, and the expected operating range is between 15800-16200 yuan/ton.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices fluctuated and rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 106055 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 109423.33 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 3.18% and a year-on-year increase of 39.13%.
The copper spot price in August was higher than the main contract price, indicating strong support for copper prices in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory first fell and then rose in August. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 234275 tons, a decrease of 1.71% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the macroeconomic data of the United States in August continued the stagflation background of “slowing growth and stubborn inflation”. The final value of GDP in the second quarter confirmed a quarterly growth of 1.48%, which continued to slow down from 2.1% in the first quarter; The core PCE recorded 3.3% year-on-year in July, still far from the target of 2%. Federal Reserve’s Walsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, clearly prioritizing price stability in policy. CME data shows that the probability of market expectations for a rate hike in September has risen from 35% to around 60%. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI for August was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, with both production and demand expanding simultaneously. Geographically, the US Iran conflict has been recurring, the issue of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and the situation in the Middle East has caused intermittent disruptions to market sentiment.
Supply side: The continuous tight supply from the mining side is the core contradiction of the copper market in August. The International Copper Research Group (ICSG) has lowered its forecast for global copper production growth in 2026 from 2.3% to 1.6%. Chile’s copper production in July decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, and mainstream mining companies such as Antofagasta have lowered their annual production guidelines. The processing fee for copper concentrate has accelerated its decline, and as of the week ending August 28th, the imported copper concentrate index has fallen to -1998.84 US dollars per dry ton, reaching an extremely low historical value. In terms of refined copper production, the estimated production of electrolytic copper in August was 1.1392 million tons, an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous month, but a decrease of 2.76% year-on-year, reflecting that the shortage of copper concentrate has formed a substantial constraint on production. In terms of recycled copper, Europe and the United States are promoting the return of manufacturing industries and tightening the supply of overseas scrap copper, while the supply of domestically traded scrap copper is substantially tightened.
Downstream: August is in the traditional off-season for consumption, and overall terminal demand is weak. High copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream procurement, and companies are cautious in their willingness to stock up at high prices and hold onto essential procurement in multiple dimensions. In terms of the operating rate of refined copper rods, as of August 20th, it was 61.2%, which has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level; Terminals such as cables and enameled wires are suppressed by high copper prices, resulting in weak overall demand. In terms of structural highlights, emerging fields such as AI computing power and new energy require resilience; The demand in the copper foil field has significantly rebounded, and AI servers have driven rapid growth in demand for high-end HVLP copper foil. The real estate market remains weak, automobile production and sales have declined, demand in the air conditioning industry has weakened, and traditional terminal demand lacks incremental support.

influencing factors
Entering September, core variables will be concentrated: the Federal Reserve’s September 17 interest rate meeting will set short-term financial conditions, and if interest rate hikes exceed expectations, it will suppress risk appetite; Will the 232 tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese copper materials be officially implemented at the end of September, reshaping global trade flows; The accelerated issuance of domestic special bonds is directly linked to the quality of “Golden September and Silver October” consumption. In addition, the TC of copper concentrate has fallen to around -200 US dollars, and we need to be vigilant about the expansion of unplanned production cuts by Chinese smelters; The concentration of LME registered warehouse receipts is relatively high, and the risk of warehouse crowding has not yet been eliminated.
In summary, copper prices fluctuated strongly in August due to the shortage of mining resources and low inventory support, but off-season consumption and expectations of interest rate hikes limited the upper space. Looking ahead to September, the marginal rebound in peak season demand and policy expectations provide bottom support, but the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the pace of US tariff implementation, and geopolitical risks will increase the volatility. If the macro bearish sentiment is realized, copper prices may first suppress and then rise; If the fundamental squeeze returns, it is expected to reach a new high. Overall, maintaining a high and wide range of volatility judgment, the tight supply pattern is still the core safety cushion for bulls.

The PTA market in August showed an overall upward trend, with a price of 5945 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month in East China, up 6.02% from 6303 yuan/ton at the end of the month. In August, the domestic PTA market experienced a structural upward trend, driven by a significant contraction in the supply side and cost support from geopolitical disturbances in crude oil. However, overall terminal demand was weak, indicating a typical supply driven market rather than a significant rebound in terminal consumption.

The overall market shows obvious stage differentiation. In early August, the PTA market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, with downstream textile terminal orders continuing to be weak in the off-season. The overall market demand was insufficient, and polyester factories mainly replenished their inventory for essential needs, lacking centralized replenishment actions. Market trading sentiment was flat, and price fluctuations were limited. In mid August, the market logic completely reversed, and multiple large-scale PTA main units in China entered a centralized maintenance cycle. The industry’s operating rate quickly fell to a low of around 63% for the year. The supply of goods in the spot market has significantly tightened, enterprise inventories continue to deplete, and social inventories have fallen to low levels, highlighting the tight spot market pattern. At the same time, international crude oil is subject to strong fluctuations due to the geopolitical situation, and upstream PX raw material prices are rising synchronously. Under the dual positive resonance, PTA prices have entered a significant upward trend, with significant monthly increases.
Looking ahead to the future, the long short game in the PTA market will intensify in September, and the market may shift from a unilateral rise to a high-level oscillation. The pressure on the supply side is gradually becoming apparent. From the end of August to early September, multiple sets of main equipment that had undergone early maintenance were restarted and put into operation, and the industry’s operating rate quickly rebounded. The tight spot market pattern that had lasted for nearly a month is gradually easing, and the increase in market supply will directly suppress the further upward space of PTA prices.
The marginal weakening of cost side support has led to significant fluctuations in international crude oil prices due to geopolitical disturbances, resulting in high market uncertainty. At the same time, PX maintenance facilities are gradually resuming production, and the supply and demand of raw materials are becoming more relaxed, weakening the cost support for PTA. Subsequently, prices will follow more fluctuations in the crude oil pulse market.
The demand side remains the core variable of the market, and the market has officially entered the traditional “golden nine” consumption peak season, but there is significant uncertainty in the recovery of terminal textile orders. In addition, the profits of the polyester industry are squeezed by MEG prices, putting pressure on the production profits of enterprises, and there is a risk of a decline in the subsequent polyester operating rate.

On August 1, 2026, the electrolytic manganese market saw a slight increase. The spot market price in East China was at 18000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 18150 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.83%. In the first half of the year, the market remained sideways and watched, while in the middle half, prices rose slightly supported by enterprise production control and low inventory. In the second half of the year, prices stabilized and operated.

There is rigid support on the cost side, and the slight decrease in manganese ore prices has eased the pressure on raw materials, but the prices of electricity, sulfuric acid, selenium dioxide and other auxiliary materials in the southwestern production area remain stable. The structural contradiction between supply and demand runs through the whole month, with supply side enterprises actively limiting production, tight supply of goods, and a strong mentality of raising prices; On the demand side, stainless steel is in the traditional off-season, with steel mills only purchasing for immediate needs and having a strong willingness to lower prices. The stable demand for lithium manganese materials only serves as a bottom line, and the market is mostly replenished as needed, resulting in overall low transaction volume. As the overseas summer break approaches its end, export inquiries have increased month on month, but there is insufficient follow-up on actual orders, which only slightly boosts market sentiment and fails to substantially boost the market.
In terms of manganese ore: In July, the overall import volume of manganese ore in China increased both month on month and year on year, and the cumulative import volume during the year was significantly higher than the same period last year. Overseas mineral sources continued to increase, and domestic port raw material inventories remained high. The overall supply environment of the mining end was loose. In August, mainstream overseas mining companies lowered their shipping quotes to China, while South African semi carbonate and Australian block shipping quotes decreased month on month. In September, forward shipping quotes continued to weaken, and long-term low-priced ore expectations continued to suppress the upper limit of electrolytic manganese raw material costs. In terms of supply structure, South African mines are still the main source of domestic imports, but the corresponding shipping schedule and arrival in August have declined compared to the previous month. Australian and Gabonese mines have received stable shipments, and there has been no significant adjustment in the supply structure.
The spot price of manganese ore in mainstream domestic ports fluctuates narrowly, and the trend is differentiated between grades: the spot price of high-grade Australian blocks remains firm, South African semi carbonate slightly strengthens, and low-grade high-speed iron manganese ore continues to fall; The high priced manganese ore at the port continues to accumulate inventory, traders are lowering prices to sell and recoup funds, smelters are purchasing sporadically according to demand, and there is no large-scale hoarding operation, resulting in a lack of sustained upward momentum in mineral prices. The overall production of domestic Yunnan Guizhou and Hunan local mines is stable, with only a small number of small-scale mines experiencing slight production reductions due to environmental protection and equipment maintenance, which has a weak impact on the overall raw material supply. The manganese price ratio in the field has been at a low level for a long time, and the purchasing pace of smelters is conservative, making it difficult for the mining end to continue raising prices.

On the supply side, the three core production areas of Guangxi, Guizhou, and Hunan generally implement staggered production and phased shutdowns. In August, the overall production capacity release rate of the industry was at a low level for the year, and most small and medium-sized smelters maintained half load production. The pace of resuming production for shutdown and maintenance enterprises was slow, and only the top large factories were operating at full load. The incremental increase brought by the new production line was limited, and the monthly total output of the industry slightly declined compared to July. Among them, less than half of the production enterprises in Hunan production area were in production, and the output increment further contracted. Combined with the regional quotation tracking of Shengshe, the ex factory price of the main production area has been lower than that of the East China circulation market for a long time; The industry generally adopts a sales based production model to control the pace of shipments. The inventory of finished products in smelters continues to be depleted and has fallen to a low level within the year. The market has a scarcity of low-priced circulating goods, coupled with the synchronous low inventory of traders in transit. There is no condition for a large amount of selling to suppress prices in the market, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell and maintain prices. Orders below the comprehensive cost are mostly not accepted, and there is very little room for spot discounts; Although the purchase price of manganese ore has slightly eased the pressure on raw material costs, the industrial electricity prices in the main production areas of Southwest China are running at a high level, and the prices of auxiliary materials such as selenium dioxide and sulfuric acid have not fallen back. The low operating state has also pushed up the fixed production cost per unit, and most small and medium-sized smelters are in a break even or slightly losing state, further suppressing the industry’s concentrated resumption of production. The short-term supply increment is difficult to release.
On the demand side: In August, the stainless steel industry entered the traditional off-season for consumption, with downstream end product orders weakening and processing plants contracting. Major steel mills completed the bidding for electrolytic manganese for the month, with top steel companies bidding prices remaining the same as last month. Local small and medium-sized steel mills lowered their bidding prices, and overall only maintained rigid demand procurement and obvious willingness to reduce prices. There was no pre concentration replenishment behavior. Although the spot price of 200 series stainless steel slightly rebounded, downstream pursuit of price was weak, and finished product transactions were sluggish, which in turn suppressed the purchasing power of electrolytic manganese; The demand for lithium manganese oxide and high-purity manganese sulfate in the lithium battery industry chain is stable, with leading precursor companies receiving monthly orders in a fixed quantity. The order scale is stable but without any increase, and can only support the basic market demand. The procurement rhythm of special alloy and electronic new material enterprises is normalized, mostly small batch scattered orders, with low sensitivity to manganese price fluctuations; In terms of overseas markets, the gradual end of the summer break in Europe and America has led to an increase in inquiries from overseas alloy factories and traders compared to the previous period, and the mentality of export merchants to support prices has rebounded. However, the recovery of overseas terminal orders lags behind, and the increase in actual transactions is limited. Overseas buyers have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and exports only play a role in boosting sentiment, unable to reverse the overall pattern of weak domestic demand.

In August, the domestic spot price of manganese silicon showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a low benchmark quotation at the beginning of the month and a significant increase in price at the end of the month, with a full month increase of nearly 4.8%. At the beginning of the month, the market was suppressed by low prices from steel mills during the off-season and high inventory from enterprises, resulting in low prices. In the middle of the month, the overall sentiment of the black series rebounded, coupled with a slight increase in manganese ore costs, driving the gradual rebound of manganese silicon spot prices. In the latter half of the month, the monthly bidding of steel mills was launched, and the bidding prices in various regions were raised compared to the middle of the month. The market transaction center continued to shift upward. The smelting plants in the main production areas of the supply side have continued to reduce production and the number of furnaces has decreased in the early stage, and the market circulation of goods has shrunk to some extent. However, the overall inventory in the plant is still at a high level, which limits the increase; The steel industry on the demand side is in a traditional off-season, with weak iron production from steel mills, only maintaining essential procurement, and no centralized replenishment actions. Price increases are more driven by costs and market sentiment. The narrow range strength of manganese ore at the raw material port, coupled with stable electricity and coke costs, provides support for the bottom of manganese and silicon. However, downstream actual consumption has not improved synchronously, and the sustainability of market growth is weak. The operation pattern of low-level repair and narrow range oscillation and uplift has been maintained throughout the month.
Market forecast: Based on comprehensive industry chain and business monitoring data, the overall expectation for the electrolytic manganese market in September is expected to fluctuate strongly and experience a slight recovery. Positive support comes from the arrival of the traditional peak season for stainless steel, the increased willingness of downstream terminals to stock up, and the expected improvement in purchasing demand from steel mills. Coupled with the continuation of supply side production control policies and overall low industry inventory, the rigid bottom of electricity and auxiliary material costs has limited risk of a significant decline in the market. On the negative side, the weakening of overseas forward manganese ore quotations will weaken raw material support, slow the recovery of terminal orders, or delay the release of peak season demand. If the market continues to improve and drives smelters to turn losses around, the resumption of idle production capacity in the early stage will suppress upward space. The core driving force of the future market trend will shift from cost support to peak season demand expectations, making it difficult to break out of a unilateral surge. The overall trend will maintain a gradual and moderate recovery, with a focus on tracking the pace of resumption of production in major production areas, monthly bidding by steel mills, changes in port manganese ore inventory, and actual overseas export transactions.