The trend of antimony markets at home and abroad has shown significant differentiation this week. Overseas antimony ingot prices continue to decline, while antimony oxide prices remain relatively firm. The domestic antimony price has ended a half month continuous rise, and the game between upstream and downstream in the market has intensified. The overall market has entered a period of oscillation and adjustment. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market fluctuated and rose from August 1 to 17, 2026. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 88250 yuan/ton, and the average price on the 17th was 95750 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 8.5%.

Supply side:
The overall trend of overseas antimony ingots is weak, with prices continuing to decline, while the price of antimony oxide remains firm. The domestic supply of raw materials is tight, and the rainy season in Myanmar has not yet ended, resulting in continued restrictions on land transportation of raw materials. The cost of purchasing antimony ore from smelters remains high, coupled with smelting and processing expenses, and spot prices have fallen to near the cost line of some enterprises. Enterprises are unwilling to sell at low prices and actively control quantity and raise prices. The spot market has both low-priced circulating sources from traders and high quoted sources from smelters, and the structure of spot sources is clearly stratified.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. The overall pace of downstream procurement this week has cooled down compared to the previous price increase stage. At the beginning of the week, we observed the downstream market entering the purchasing window when spot prices surged and fell, but the overall purchasing scale was limited, and the performance of various downstream industries was uneven.
Antimony oxide: The current flame retardant market is in the traditional off-season of consumption, and the overall demand in the industry is weak. Although upstream bromine prices have risen due to tight supply and cost support, it has not led to an improvement in terminal demand. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and traditional peak season stocking has not yet started. The overall pace of essential procurement is flat.
Photovoltaics: The demand for photovoltaic glass has remained relatively stable, with the industry’s daily melting rate maintaining a high level of operation. Currently, there is no large-scale production reduction situation, which provides sustained rigid support for antimony products. However, the market terminal demand is under pressure, and there is always an expectation of production reduction in the industry, with limited incremental space at this stage.
Market forecast:
This round of antimony price correction is a reasonable correction after the previous continuous rise. In the short term, with the support of high raw material procurement costs and smelter price control, the downward space for antimony prices is limited. Coupled with market expectations for demand recovery during the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season, antimony prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate overall. It is expected that the domestic antimony ingot price will maintain a range oscillation in the short term, and the price of antimony oxide will fluctuate synchronously with the market.

1、 Trend analysis

This week, copper prices first rose and then fell. As of August 14th, copper prices were reported at 108103.33 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the beginning of the week and up 35.96% year-on-year.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 207725 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 4.8% from the beginning of the week.
Macro wise: This week’s macro sentiment first suppressed and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the market continued to digest the US non farm payroll data that fell short of expectations, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates eased slightly; During the week, there was an increase in hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve, and concerns about interest rate hikes escalated; At the end of the week, the US July CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI fell to 2.5%. After confirming the cooling of inflation, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped sharply to about 70%. The weakening of the US dollar directly benefits the financial pricing of copper. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in July has fallen below the boom bust line, and domestic demand momentum continues to be weak.
Supply side: The shortage pattern in the mining sector continues to deepen, and the spot processing fee (TC) for copper concentrate has fallen to a deep negative range, hitting a record low of negative $175.7 per ton on August 7th. Due to severe shortages of raw materials, China’s refined copper production in August is expected to be 1.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.83%, marking the second consecutive month of year-on-year decline; In July, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased by 1.59% month on month, mainly due to difficulties in purchasing waste anode plates and centralized maintenance of smelters. The ban on the export of copper concentrate from the Democratic Republic of Congo has disrupted the market, but its actual impact is limited.
On the demand side: This week is in the off-season of traditional consumption, and high copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream procurement. The operating rate of domestic copper rod enterprises is only 59.3%, and terminals such as cables and enameled wires are continuously suppressed by high copper prices; The spot price of Shanghai copper has rapidly shifted from premium to discount, and the price of flat copper has dropped to around 300 yuan/ton discount. Downstream purchases are mainly made at low prices due to strong demand, and there is a lack of willingness to chase after high prices. However, the demand for emerging industries remains resilient, and the year-on-year increase of 12.6% in power grid investment provides structural support for copper consumption.
Influencing factors: The inventory side shows significant differentiation – LME copper inventory has been declining for 42 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest continuous destocking since 2014; COMEX inventory continued to increase to approximately 666000 tons, reflecting the siphon effect of North American cargo grabbing. The US tariff policy is undecided, and the market is waiting for whether to announce the imposition of tariffs on copper before the end of September. In addition, the rebound in demand for AI is seen by the market as an important driving force behind this round of price increases, reshaping the medium and long-term demand logic of the copper market.
In summary, copper prices have fluctuated at a high level in the macro and fundamental long short game this week, with extremely low inventory and scarce minerals forming a solid bottom. However, weak consumption during the off-season and high copper prices have suppressed upward elasticity. Looking ahead to next week, copper prices are expected to remain strong.

As of August 13, 2026, the spot market price of gold was 954.24 yuan/gram, an increase of 7.67% yuan/gram compared to the spot market price of 886.23 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (August 1).

On August 13th, the price of gold continued to decline, and in terms of spot trading:
On August 13, 2026, the benchmark price of Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 950.18 yuan/gram in the afternoon session, down 6.26 yuan/gram (-0.65%) from the earlier benchmark price of 956.44 yuan/gram; Compared to the benchmark price of 955.85 yuan/gram in the afternoon session of the previous trading day, it has decreased by 5.67 yuan/gram (-0.59%).
In terms of futures:
On August 13, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai Gold Main Contract was 964.38 yuan/gram, and the closing price was 952.96 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.26% from yesterday’s settlement price of 955.44 yuan/gram; Compared to the closing price of 888.30 yuan/gram on July 31st, it has increased by 7.28%.
Reasons for the recent rebound of precious metal gold
Since mid July, the prices of precious metals have continued to rebound, driven by the weakening of US economic data, which has led the market to lower expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The actual yield of US bonds and the US dollar index have fallen temporarily, reducing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals; Combined with the previous price oversold, which triggered short covering and long capital backflow, global central banks continued to purchase gold, forming bottom support. The easing of the Middle East situation weakened energy inflation concerns, further improving market sentiment. Silver benefited from the dual logic of financial attributes and industrial demand, showing more flexibility.
Future forecast of precious metal gold prices
This round of precious metal gold recovery belongs to oversold repair rebound. Short term high volatility may digest profit taking, but global central bank gold purchases provide bottom support, limiting significant downward space. Short term gold prices tend to fluctuate strongly and are prone to rise but difficult to fall. The Jackson Hole annual meeting at the end of August is a turning point in direction; The medium-term volatile upward trend still exists, but the volatility is extremely high.

This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China saw a slight increase. On August 3rd, the average market price was 426920 yuan/ton, and as of August 12th, the average market price was 427550 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%.
At this stage, the tin price has emerged from a roller coaster trend of “rapid rise and fall” – the front part of the mining end is tight and low inventory drives it to surge to 435540 yuan/ton and trigger a super rise, while the rear part is afraid of high sentiment and the marginal loosening of internal and external inventory leads to a rapid decline to around 427000 yuan/ton.

fundamentals
Supply side: The tight mining situation has not changed, but there are signs of looseness at the margin
Supply side constraints remain the core support for tin prices. The resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar has been slower than expected due to the rainy season, mining area restoration, and production material supply restrictions; Due to export quotas and local smelting policies, Indonesia’s refined tin exports have significantly shrunk year-on-year; The Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo has raised concerns about mining operations. The overall supply from the mining end maintains a tight balance pattern.
However, there are some loose signals at the margin: Indonesia’s previously blocked export ships due to policy ambiguity have fully resumed operations, and imports of tin ingots from Indonesia may rebound in the later stage; Although the raw material supply of domestic smelting enterprises is still tight, the recent increase in processing fees has shown signs of easing the tight mining situation.
Demand side: Dual line repair provides resilience, but high prices suppress inventory replenishment
The demand side shows a structural rebound but the overall volume is suppressed:
Semiconductor recovery: The resumption of semiconductor packaging and testing has driven the replenishment of solder orders, and the expansion of AI computing infrastructure has driven the use of high-end PCB tin.
Volume of photovoltaic solder: The demand for photovoltaic solder strips forms the second demand clue, and the increase in component production scheduling drives the growth of tin solder usage.
New energy vehicles: The onboard solder and power components are stably supported by tin.
But currently in the off-season of electronic consumption, the downstream is clearly afraid of high tin prices, and solder companies lack the willingness to maintain essential procurement and actively replenish inventory. The spot market is affected by off-season factors and price trends, resulting in unstable trading conditions.
Inventory end
LME inventory: fell to 5795 tons on August 7th, continuing to hit a historic low, with spot premiums expanding. On August 10th, it slightly rebounded to 5640 tons (+50 tons), and on August 11th, it increased by another 50 tons, accumulating a small amount of inventory for two consecutive days, ending the previous trend of continuous depletion.
Domestic inventory: SHFE warehouse receipt reported 5199 tons on August 11th.
Comprehensive analysis: Short term high volatility is relatively weak
Downward risk: LME inventory has increased for two consecutive days, ending the continuous trend of destocking; Downstream fear of heights and urgent procurement are the main focus; Macro level US inflation data is about to be released, and market sentiment is cautious.
Upward support: The tight mining situation has not fundamentally changed; LME inventory remains at historically low levels; Provide bottom support for semiconductor+photovoltaic dual line demand repair.

On August 11, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9300 yuan/ton, which increased by 20 yuan/ton or 0.22% compared to August 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9280 yuan/ton).
1、 Trend analysis

Since August, the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal 441 # has remained stable, followed by a slight upward trend. At the beginning of the month, the market price of metal silicon 441 # remained stable with little fluctuation within the market. On August 11th, the market price of metal silicon 441 # slightly increased to a narrow range, with some regions raising the market price by about 50 yuan/ton. As of August 11th, the domestic market price of metal silicon is around 9000-9450 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
Supply side: Recently, the overall supply of silicon metal in the market has decreased, with some regions or facilities reducing production or entering periodic maintenance. The overall operating rate of the market has decreased, and the tightening of the supply side has provided some market support, driving market prices to rise.
In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream market for silicon metal in the organic silicon industry is still undergoing an overall anti involution and production reduction. It is expected that the overall operating rate of the market will be lowered in the later stage, and the demand for silicon metal will also decrease. Jinjiu is coming soon, and the downstream polysilicon market demand may see a certain increase. The demand for downstream aluminum alloy ingots in the market remains basically stable. Narrow improvement in supply and demand conduction of metallic silicon.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is average, and it remains to be seen whether the destocking performance of the metal silicon spot market and the market demand can continue to improve. However, there is currently cost support, and the market situation has a certain bottoming out momentum. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific attention needs to be paid to the resumption of production in some regions and downstream start-up situations.

As of August 10th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25493 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.70% compared to the zinc price of 25067 yuan/ton on August 3rd.
fundamentals
August was traditionally the off-season for consumption, but the zinc market experienced a remarkable upward trend. Terminal demand is usually weak, and zinc prices often operate under pressure. However, in early August this year, zinc prices went against the trend and strengthened, breaking out of the independent market trend of “not being weak in the off-season”. Behind this abnormal trend is the result of multiple tightening measures on the supply side and periodic resonance on the demand side.
Supply side: “Four Tightening”
Comprehensive tightening of supply at the mining end
The fundamental driving force behind the current increase in zinc prices comes from the mining sector. The processing fee for domestically produced zinc concentrate has dropped to a historical low of -1150 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC has dropped to -98 US dollars/dry ton. Smelters need to pay back fees to obtain raw materials, which is extremely rare. Global mining production expectations continue to decline, with guidance from Glencore and Tektronix lowered, compounded by external disturbances such as railway disruptions in Australia, energy crisis in Peru, and geopolitical conflicts in Iran. On August 1st, a safety accident occurred at the Fankou lead-zinc mine in China, resulting in production stoppage and further reduction of the available zinc concentrate in the country. The mining end tightens from both internal and external directions, directly raising the cost of smelting raw materials and providing solid bottom support for zinc prices.
Smelting losses force production cuts
The extremely low processing fees have caused widespread losses in the smelting process, although the increase in the prices of by-products such as sulfuric acid and zinc has compensated for it, the overall loss pressure is still high. Small and medium-sized smelters are scheduled for maintenance in advance, which limits the monthly output increase of refined zinc. The maintenance cycle in the third quarter continues, and the tension in the mining end is accelerating towards the smelting end. It is difficult to restore the supply of refined zinc, and the supply elasticity is significantly compressed.
The trend of internal and external inventory is differentiated, and overseas structural risks are prominent
LME zinc inventory continues to deplete. Domestic social inventory is hovering at a high level, with slow turnover. The differentiation between internal and external factors has led to a weakening of Shanghai’s supply chain, resulting in the closure of the import window and difficulty in supplementing the domestic market with imported zinc ingots, further compressing the domestic supply elasticity.
The “four clues” on the supply side are tightening simultaneously, forming a resonance
The low processing fees at the mining end, the relocation of smelter maintenance, the risk of centralized squeezing of London warehouse receipts, and the closure of import windows – these four clues have tightened simultaneously within the same time window, compressing the supply elasticity of the zinc market to the lowest level in recent years. Mutual reinforcement between each other: tight mining pushing up costs → refinery losses leading to reduced production → depletion of overseas inventory exacerbating expectations of warehouse crowding → import obstruction unable to make up for the gap. The combined effect of the four tightening measures has become the core fundamental support for the counter trend strengthening of zinc prices this week.
Demand side: ‘Weak reality’ remains unchanged, but marginal improvement is expected
It should be objectively pointed out that the overall demand side is still in a low season pattern. Downstream galvanized sheet inventory is still accumulating, with a low operating rate; The die-casting zinc alloy, zinc oxide and other sectors are still at a low level during the off-season; Real estate infrastructure orders are flat, with terminal demand mainly entering the market. The trading atmosphere in the spot market gradually weakened after the prices continued to rise, and downstream enterprises were affected by the off-season of consumption and high zinc prices, resulting in a significant lack of purchasing enthusiasm.
However, as the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden September and Silver October” approaches, expectations for downstream replenishment are heating up. The market is shifting from “weak reality” to “peak season expectations”. The marginal improvement expectation on the demand side has become an important driving force for the upward trend of zinc prices.

Comprehensive analysis: Supply logic leads, alert to high-level risks
The core logic behind the abnormal increase in zinc prices during the off-season can be summarized as follows: the supply side tightened four times, forming a bottom support for prices: tight mining, reduced smelting, low inventory, and import resistance. The demand side resonated with galvanized and infrastructure orders, and downstream replenishment provided temporary upward momentum. The two resonated within the time window of early August.
The previous market is currently in a fierce game of “strong supply side support” and “weak demand side reality”. The story of the supply side provides a solid bottom for zinc prices, but whether the demand side can move from “marginal improvement” to “substantial recovery” will determine the space and sustainability of zinc price increases.

This week, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has risen. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 3983 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 3986 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.08%.
This week, the market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite (with a content of 96.5%) in China increased. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite fell by 0.96%, and the sulfur price increased by 0.9%. Driven by the rising cost of upstream raw materials, tight supply due to environmental restrictions, and the release of downstream demand, the overall price is at a relatively high historical level. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).
Future forecast
Due to the rising cost of domestic sodium metabisulfite raw materials and tight supply, it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and strengthen in the short term.

In August, the domestic acrylonitrile market price opened significantly higher at 12000-12500 yuan/ton, an increase of 600-700 yuan/ton compared to the end of July. Since the price began to rise in mid July, the current increase has reached 3000 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 32.1%. The contraction of supply side is the direct factor leading to the market’s sharp rise, coupled with the continuous low inventory in the industry, the concentrated replenishment of intermediaries, the support of crude oil costs, and the willingness of enterprises to repair losses. The passive follow-up replenishment of essential demand buying is released, and the bullish sentiment in the market is concentrated. Production enterprises continue to raise their listing prices, and the focus of spot trading is synchronously lifted. In the off-season, the market is rising against the trend.

As of August 5th, the ex tank price of acrylonitrile in the spot market of East China ports has reached 12300-12400 yuan/ton, and the Shandong market has also remained at 12000 yuan/ton. The current price has exceeded the market high in the context of the Middle East conflict in April and is also higher than the price surge level stimulated by unexpected supply contraction in the first quarter of last year. The rapid and significant increase in prices this time is not only due to the continuous shortage of spot resources, but also due to the reduction in contract supply, and the simultaneous reduction of supply in the north and south, which stimulates the market to rise significantly.
Continuous low inventory in the acrylonitrile industry
Prior to this round of price increases, the overall inventory of acrylonitrile in the domestic industry was already at a moderately low level. During the first half of July, due to weak demand and increased supply, prices quickly fell back to nearly 9000 yuan/ton. During this period, inventory further decreased to a lower level, especially in acrylonitrile factories where inventory was not high. Subsequently, the price rebounded due to cost push, but due to the general bearish outlook of the industry, low inventory operations were still maintained.
Unplanned parking or reduced load supply of the device, phased centralized reduction in quantity
Starting from late July, domestic maintenance has been concentrated and the supply of goods has significantly contracted. Under the accumulation of sustained low inventory in the early stage, it is difficult to find a single commodity in the acrylonitrile market, which stimulates further price increases.
Entering the first week of August, the acrylonitrile shutdown plant has not yet recovered, and the long-term supply downturn has once again intensified. Zhenhai Refining and Chemical plans to reduce the plant load to 50-60% by mid August, and the main source of goods in East China will be further reduced, strengthening the market’s expectation of long-term shortage in advance. The industry’s capacity utilization rate will remain below 70%. Although some devices are expected to recover in the future, uncertainty still leads to cautious market sentiment, and the prices of holders remain firm at high levels.
Significant increase in production profits
While the price of acrylonitrile is rapidly rising, the upstream price of propylene is showing a downward trend. Among them, the price of propylene in the Shandong market has gradually dropped to 8000 yuan/ton and fluctuated at a lower level, and the price difference between the two has expanded to 4000 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit margin of acrylonitrile production has significantly increased. The considerable profits will drive the active restart and recovery of the shutdown equipment in the future, and the acrylonitrile market is currently consolidating under the expectation of increased supply.

Downstream demand is weak during the off-season
Due to the significant increase in acrylonitrile prices this round, it was mainly driven by the favorable supply side contraction, while the demand side remained flat. The construction of the acrylic fiber sector remains stable, with a need for normalized rigid procurement; ABS、 Downstream mainstream products such as acrylamide have been dragged down by sluggish orders for household appliances and plastic terminals, resulting in a continuous decline in plant production. The overall demand is weak, making it difficult to match the pace of spot price increases. Faced with the rapid rise in raw material prices and the increasing resistance of downstream factories, there is a multi-dimensional demand for on-demand procurement mode, and large-scale hoarding behavior is rare. Therefore, as supply begins to gradually recover, there will be expectations of a downturn in the market, but it is still necessary to pay attention to supply side fluctuations as variables continue to exist.
Future forecast
In mid to late August, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will increase its efforts to reduce production capacity, while facilities such as Selbang will gradually increase their production capacity. In September, 660000 tons of new production capacity will be gradually put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in overall supply at that time. Overall, it is expected that during the first half of August, due to the low inventory in the industry, the tight balance pattern of domestic spot goods will be difficult to quickly ease. However, as the profit of acrylonitrile production continues to recover, there is a possibility of a slight negative offset gap in some operating units; At the same time, some overseas maintenance facilities have resumed production, and the increase in imported goods has entered the market. The price of acrylonitrile is expected to fall, but it may still maintain a relatively high level of operation. The pace of decline may accelerate in mid to late August as supply resumes. It is recommended that industrial chain enterprises purchase according to their needs, avoid blindly chasing high prices and stocking up, and control their own raw material safety stock.

1、 Market Overview
In July, domestic PA66 spot prices showed an overall trend of stabilizing at a low level and rebounding slightly, before falling back and oscillating again at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the spot price remained stable at 18366.67 yuan/ton. In the middle and late of the month, there was a brief sideways consolidation, and at the end of the month, it began to face downward pressure. On August 4th, the spot price fell back to 18133.33 yuan/ton. The overall fluctuation space during the month was narrow, and the price remained in the mid to low range of the one-year cycle, indicating a weak overall market trend. From the perspective of the moving average signal, the short-term moving average in the first half of the month crossed the long-term moving average and experienced a slight rebound. In the second half of the month, the 5-day and 10 day moving averages successively crossed the long-term moving average, and the upward momentum of the market dissipated, causing prices to once again enter a downward channel.
2、 Cost analysis
The supply of raw material adiponitrile to external sources is stable, and there is limited disturbance in overseas plant maintenance, resulting in narrow fluctuations in external raw material prices; The trend of upstream basic chemical raw materials such as benzene and cyclohexane remained stable within the month, while the bottom support for PA66 production costs was weak, and there was no significant driving force for price increases on the raw material side.
The domestic production capacity of adiponitrile continues to be released, the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials in the industry continues to increase, and there is ample room for cost control of raw materials; In mid to late July, the recovery speed of downstream production load was slower than expected, and factories actively compressed raw material procurement. The slow accumulation of upstream raw material inventory further limited the price increase space of PA66 chips. Overall, it is difficult for the cost side to drive up slice prices this month, and the market trend is mainly dominated by downstream supply and demand fundamentals.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
1. Supply side
Most mainstream PA66 production facilities in China are operating normally, and the overall operating rate of the industry is at a medium to high level, with sufficient supply of spot goods in the market; Some enterprises flexibly schedule production according to demand and moderately control production to reduce pressure during periods of low market conditions, but the overall inventory pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated.
The low market level during the month attracted some traders to hoard goods, and factory spot inventory shifted to the circulation link, resulting in a slight increase in social inventory; The market supply of goods is loose, and manufacturers have started to lower their spot prices at the end of the month to promote shipments and benefit downstream customers.
2. Demand side
July belongs to the traditional off-season for downstream nylon consumption, with fewer orders for terminal automotive parts and construction machinery parts; Downstream factories in the textile and chemical fiber modification fields are mostly maintaining their demand for goods, and their willingness to stock up on a large scale is low.
After the slicing price hit bottom in the first ten days, downstream enterprises carried out a round of replenishment operations, driving the price to briefly sideways; As the off-season atmosphere continues to deepen, downstream finished product inventory accumulates, factories gradually lower their operating rates, and procurement demand rapidly cools down. At the end of the month, downstream purchases were made on demand, and market transactions weakened, causing spot prices to fall under pressure. The overall weak downstream demand is the core factor that makes it difficult for the PA66 market to strengthen in July.

4、 Short term forecast
The short-term PA66 market is still under pressure and fluctuating. The cost side raw material market is stable and there is no strong support; At present, the price has fallen back to the low range of the cycle, and the downward space is limited.
The downstream industry is about to enter the traditional peak season pre stocking cycle, and there are expectations of a rebound in orders for the automotive and textile industries in mid to late August; However, at present, the recovery speed of terminal orders is relatively slow, and it is difficult to see a significant increase in the short term. The market is likely to remain in a low range and fluctuate, waiting for the release of downstream peak season demand.

Recently, the formic acid market as a whole has shown a significant decline, with a weak operating trend. The overall market is under significant pressure, with a significant month on month decline. As of August 4th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 1800 yuan/ton, which showed a significant decline from the previous high point. The overall market atmosphere was quiet, and the transaction activity was insufficient. The industry as a whole was in a weak off-season, and the supply-demand imbalance was the core factor leading the price decline in this round.
The oversupply of loose supply is the core driving force behind the continued weakness of formic acid prices this week. This week, the overall operating rate of domestic formic acid production enterprises remained stable, mainstream factories were running smoothly, the overall supply of goods in the industry was sufficient, and the accumulation of spot inventory in the market was significant. In the early stage, most companies had sufficient inventory, coupled with the continuous release of new sources of goods into the market, leading to a gradual increase in inventory pressure in the industry. In order to quickly digest inventory and recover funds, most production enterprises and traders actively lowered their ex factory quotations, resulting in a widespread phenomenon of discounted shipments, further lowering the overall market quotation level and driving down spot prices. The supply side of the market is completely in a loose pattern of oversupply.
Downstream demand remains weak, making it difficult to support price stabilization and recovery. At present, it is the off-season for traditional chemical consumption, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as leather, printing and dyeing, pharmaceuticals, and rubber additives in formic acid are generally low. Terminal enterprises lack orders and production enthusiasm. Downstream manufacturers mainly purchase small orders for essential needs, with little willingness to stock up. The overall transaction volume in the market is relatively small, and there is a lack of favorable support for centralized procurement. The sustained sluggishness on the demand side has led to a sluggish market buying atmosphere, exacerbating the problem of supply-demand mismatch, and completely losing the driving force for price increases, which is an important reason for the continued weakness of the market.
The cost and market mentality further exacerbate the weak market situation. The price of methanol, the core raw material for formic acid, has been fluctuating weakly recently, and the support for production costs is insufficient. The pressure on production costs for enterprises has eased, providing space for price reduction and shipment. At the same time, affected by the continuous price reduction trend, the market has a strong bearish sentiment, and traders are generally cautious in trading, lowering prices and shipping according to the market. The wait-and-see mentality of terminal procurement has intensified, forming a weak cycle of “price reduction wait-and-see further price reduction”, and the overall market trading sentiment is sluggish.
Overall, in the past week, the formic acid market has been in a weak adjustment stage due to multiple negative factors such as loose supply, off-season demand, and weak mentality. Prices have continued to decline. In the short term, there is no obvious sign of recovery in terminal demand, and industry inventory pressure still exists. It is expected that the formic acid market will continue to fluctuate weakly in the future, and it is difficult for prices to stabilize and recover. The market may continue to operate at a low level, and specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.