In July 2026, the domestic price of 1 # antimony ingots continued to weaken, with an average price of 116500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 91750 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a cumulative decrease of 21.24% during the month. The market’s good news for the whole month is scarce, and the rebound in antimony prices lacks sustainability, resulting in significant differences in market participants’ mentality. Combined with the traditional off-season dragging down demand and the continuous influx of low-priced overseas goods, the downward trend is driven by fundamental pressure.

Supply side:
The loose circulation of global antimony resources, the continuous existence of low-priced sources in overseas markets, the expectation of overseas production capacity adjustment, and the independent development plans of key mineral resources in various countries continue to suppress market expectations. The overall supply level of imported raw materials remains relatively high. Although the export of some overseas raw materials has tightened, imported goods continue to flow into the domestic market, and the market circulation of goods is relatively sufficient. There was a significant fluctuation in warehouse receipts during the delivery stage of the month, but this change was only a transfer of circulation within the market, and the goods did not enter the end consumer sector. The overall inventory of the industry did not receive substantial destocking, making it difficult to form effective supply support.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. June is the off-season for traditional consumption of antimony products, and the overall market consumption atmosphere is sluggish, with weak overall support for demand
Antimony oxide: The downstream market of traditional antimony oxide has shown weak performance, and the flame retardant industry has entered the traditional consumption off-season. The operating level of terminal industries has generally declined. Downstream manufacturers tend to adopt a cautious procurement strategy, often adopting an on-demand purchasing model, only maintaining rigid production materials, and lacking centralized replenishment actions. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the increase in orders is limited, making it difficult to transmit upward and drive the increase in raw material procurement. The driving force for the consumption of antimony ingots is relatively weak.
Photovoltaic: As the main downstream sector of antimony oxide, photovoltaic glass is still in a period of capacity contraction in the industry as a whole. Most production lines continue to implement cold repair plans, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate is at a low level. Although some production lines resumed production during this period, which brought some emotional boost, it was not enough to change the overall trend of industry production reduction. The game between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain continues, and the price suppression behavior at the component end makes it difficult for glass companies to implement their price increase plans. The overall shipment of photovoltaic glass has not shown significant improvement, and the corresponding increase in antimony raw material consumption is limited. Emerging demands such as semiconductors and batteries are still in the cultivation stage and cannot make up for the demand gap in traditional industries in the short term.
Market forecast:
The short-term market is still constrained by the off-season atmosphere, making it difficult for terminal demand to improve rapidly, and antimony ingot prices are likely to maintain a weak operating pattern. After a sustained decline, production costs will become an important price support line, and the market’s focus is gradually waiting for the expected improvement in demand brought by the traditional peak season in the third quarter. The subsequent market trend requires tracking the scale of overseas raw material inflows and changes in domestic raw material supply; On the other hand, observe the stocking pace of downstream industries. If there is a contraction in raw material supply, coupled with the orderly release of downstream peak season demand, antimony prices are expected to usher in an opportunity for stabilization; If external sources continue to flood in and terminal demand does not recover as expected, the weak market pattern may continue.

1、 This week’s market summary: Stop falling and rebound, strong upward trend

This week (July 21-27, 2026), the domestic melamine market experienced a significant “V-shaped” reversal. In the early stage, the market continued to experience weak fluctuations, with prices hovering at low levels; Until the weekend (July 27th), the market experienced a strong outbreak, successfully ending the continuous decline and achieving a rebound from the decline.
As of July 27th, the benchmark price of melamine soared to 6125.00 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 2.08% compared to the previous trading day (6000.00 yuan/ton). From a monthly perspective, the current price has increased by 1.24% compared to the 6050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, indicating a significant rebound in market sentiment.
2、 Trend feature analysis: Breakthrough after bottoming out consolidation
Looking at this week’s price trend chart, the price of melamine showed a slow downward trend from July 21st to 26th, with the 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average falling synchronously. The price remained suppressed within a narrow range of 6000-6025 yuan/ton, oscillating and bottoming out.
The turning point occurred on July 27th, when spot prices surged and broke through the 6100 yuan/ton mark in a single day. The red 10 day moving average in the chart hit its lowest point on July 26th and quickly rose sharply on July 27th, forming a convergence or even upward trend with the blue 20 day moving average, indicating strong short-term bullish power and sufficient rebound momentum.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, after several days of bottoming out, the melamine market successfully achieved a breakthrough this weekend. The technical signal of “moving average crossing” resonates with the fundamental rebound, greatly boosting market confidence in the short term. It is expected that under the support of demand and market sentiment, the price of melamine is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern. In the future, attention should be paid to the follow-up of downstream demand and changes in plant operating rates.

This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an average market price of 415370 yuan/ton on July 20th and 411670 yuan/ton as of July 24th, a decrease of 0.89%.

This week, tin prices showed a typical trend of “rising first and then falling”. At the beginning of the week, they were strongly boosted by geopolitical premiums and low inventory support, fluctuating at a high level in the middle of the week, and experiencing a fierce pullback over the weekend.
Macroscopic perspective
The macro level constitutes the main suppressive force. The non farm payroll data for May in the United States exceeded expectations and was strong. Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike sharply increased, and the US dollar index hit a 13 month high, putting overall pressure on US dollar denominated base metals. At the same time, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced two rounds of sharp declines, directly impacting the demand expectations for “computing power metals”, and the AI narrative that had previously supported the strengthening of tin prices was temporarily shaken.
Supply and demand side:
On the supply side, the mining side continues to be tight, but the margin has not deteriorated. Myanmar’s resumption of production fell short of expectations. The Wa State in Myanmar is currently in the rainy season (May to July), and the progress of resuming production in mining areas continues to be slow. The mining ban policy has not been substantially relaxed yet. The tight mining situation has not changed, but the rainy season is a seasonal factor, and the market has already had sufficient expectations for it. Indonesia’s exports have declined. The Indonesian government continues to crack down on illegal mining and tighten export regulations, resulting in a year-on-year decline in refined tin exports, further narrowing the global supply elasticity. The overall stability of domestic smelting production. The overall production of smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable, and the tight mining situation has not yet transformed into a significant reduction in refined tin production.
On the demand side, there is a strong sense of fear and wait-and-see attitude downstream. After the sharp rise in spot prices, downstream companies maintained their demand for essential purchases and on-demand access, while the procurement of solder and electronic enterprises above 410000 yuan/ton significantly slowed down. Being in the traditional off-season of consumption, the actual consumption intensity is not as expected. Relative preference for soldering orders. Soldering has stable demand support and strong support for tin prices; But the overall market situation is average for shipments, and some traditional consumer sectors still need to recover. AI needs to provide structural support. AI servers use four times more tin than traditional devices, driving the global tin market to experience a shortage of nearly 10000 tons for the fifth consecutive year. Green transformation, electrification, and the AI industry can help boost additional demand.
Inventory end
The simultaneous destocking of the two major exchanges has provided the strongest bottom support for tin prices due to low inventory.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high and wide range next week, with resistance in the range of 420000-425000 yuan/ton. Lower support: in the range of 400000 to 406000 yuan/ton. Low inventory and supply risk provide strong support around 400000 yuan/ton.

This week (7.19-7.24), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region rose, with an average market price of 15725 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15900 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.11%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:

Supply and demand side
Supply side maintenance and production reduction continue, but the incremental contraction is limited. Recently, some magnesium factories in the main production areas have arranged maintenance and production reduction during the high-temperature season, resulting in a contraction of short-term supply increment. The industry’s operating rate has significantly fallen from its high level, and many original magnesium smelting enterprises have entered a period of shutdown and maintenance. However, some manufacturers’ maintenance plans are concentrated in mid to late July, and as some companies resume production, production is expected to bottom out and stabilize. At the same time, there is a slight accumulation of inventory in the factory, and the pressure of magnesium factory shipments still exists.
The off-season effect on the demand side is significant, with both internal and external demand weakening synchronously. Currently, it is the off-season for traditional consumption in the magnesium industry, and downstream procurement demand continues to weaken. In terms of the domestic market, downstream only maintains essential procurement, overall transaction volume is light, and there is no centralized replenishment of inventory or new orders at the terminal. Traders tend to be cautious and focus on buying and selling at will, without actively hoarding goods. In terms of overseas markets, customers in Europe, America and other regions have entered the summer vacation period, and foreign trade orders have significantly declined. The magnesium alloy market also presents the characteristics of “weak follow-up of terminal demand and light trading volume”.
raw material end
Rigid cost construction for bottom support. The current magnesium price has fallen to a nearly 7-month low, and magnesium factories in the main production areas have long-term production and sales inversion, resulting in losses of hundreds of yuan per ton. The comprehensive cost rigidity of dolomite, blue charcoal, ferrosilicon, electricity, labor, and environmental maintenance is highlighted. Continued low-priced shipments will further expand operating losses, resulting in a significant decrease in the willingness of magnesium factories to lower prices and offer discounts for shipments. The cost side support has become the core factor that makes it difficult for the current price to continue to fall deeply.
integrated forecasting
Taking into account both fundamental and technical factors, the short-term magnesium price is expected to continue its pattern of low, weak stability, and narrow fluctuations. Before there is a substantial improvement signal on the demand side, it is difficult for magnesium prices to break out of the trend rebound market, and it is likely to continue to fluctuate and bottom out in the low range.

Since mid July 2026, domestic EVA has shown a stable and moderate upward trend According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the benchmark price of EVA was 10066 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.07% from 9766 yuan/ton on July 10. Several petrochemical companies have gradually increased their factory prices, with a single adjustment of 100-400 yuan/ton, but market transactions are mainly for small orders for essential needs.

The cost support is clear, and the ex factory price of ethylene in East China has been raised by 300 yuan/ton to 7900 yuan/ton. Coupled with the strengthening of crude oil geography, EVA cost support has strengthened. The supply side is shrinking significantly, with centralized maintenance of equipment and some production lines switching to general materials; In the first half of the year, the cumulative export of EVA was 258700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 84.65%, significantly digesting domestic inventory.
There is a significant differentiation between cold and hot demand on the demand side. Downstream photovoltaic film companies maintain a 65% -75% operating rate, moderately replenish inventory during low prices, and provide strong support for photovoltaic EVA; The foam and shoe material industries are in a traditional off-season, with insufficient terminal orders. Downstream factories generally use them as needed, resisting high priced raw materials and suppressing the upward space of general materials.
The EVA spread has been continuously declining from zero since late April, reaching a stage low in mid to late May, and the bearish pattern has reached its peak. Subsequently, the moving average began to recover and rebound. In mid June, it briefly hit the zero axis, forming a bullish signal. After a surge, it fell back again. At the end of June, it hit the bottom again, but the bottom clearly rose, forming a W-bottom pattern. In July, the moving average steadily rebounded again and continued to move above the zero axis. The overall trend shifted from deep bearish to volatile repair, with the bottom center of gravity moving upward. The bearish momentum continued to decline, and bullish strength gradually accumulated.
Looking ahead to the future, it is expected that the weekly settlement price of petrochemical plants will increase this week, and EVA will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend, but the upward space is limited. The mid August September peak season is approaching, and component production is expected to increase by more than 15% month on month. Coupled with the fact that maintenance equipment will resume production in late August, there is room for price recovery.

Silver prices fell sharply in June

Silver prices were weak in the early stages of July, but stopped falling and rose this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market price on July 22, 2026 was 14588.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.76% compared to the spot price of 14059.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (7.1); Compared to last Friday’s low (7.17) spot price of 13450 yuan/kg, it has increased by 8.46%.
The reasons for the strong operation of silver prices this week are as follows:
1. Weakening employment and manufacturing data in the United States, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts, and lower US dollar and US Treasury yields are favorable for precious metals;
2. In the early stage, the silver price was deeply oversold, and a large number of short positions were concentrated and closed, resulting in a rapid short-term rise in the market;
3. The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are recurring, and safe haven funds are pouring into silver;
4. The global silver supply and demand gap continues, with demand from the photovoltaic and new energy electronics industries providing bottom support;
5. The gold silver ratio is too high, the valuation of silver is too low, and arbitrage funds enter to make up for the increase.
The recovery market after the sharp decline
The current rise in silver belongs to the recovery market after a sharp decline. The marginal cooling of the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is currently the main macroeconomic logic. Federal Reserve officials acknowledge the marginal easing of inflation and have not released a strong signal of interest rate hikes, dispelling the extremely pessimistic expectation of “sustained high interest rates” in the market, and loosening the strongest bearish logic that previously suppressed silver.
After the silver price fell to a low level, a large number of speculative bears concentrated in the early stage to bet on the decline. When it hit a new low for the year, under the dual news of easing in the Middle East and weak data, bears concentrated their positions and left. Drive the silver price to stop falling and recover.
Future forecast
At present, the price trend of precious metals is more inclined towards a rebound rather than a trend reversal. Technically, it is still in a medium-term downward trend, and this time it is only for oversold repair. It has not yet broken through the key moving average pressure, and the sustainability still needs to observe the follow-up data of US inflation and employment. It is expected that the short-term prices of precious metals will continue to operate strongly, but the upward space is limited, and the future market will mainly experience strong fluctuations.

The continuous mutual attack between the United States and Iran has pushed up the dual risks of global energy channels, and international crude oil has once again risen. As of July 20th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $82.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $89.22 per barrel, setting a new high since mid June. Moreover, with the concentrated annual maintenance of PX facilities, the Asian PX production has dropped to a low level within the year, thus providing strong cost support. In addition, the maintenance of multiple main PTA facilities has caused the industry’s lowest operating rate to drop to 57%, resulting in tight supply and continuous inventory depletion, which has driven prices up all the way.

On the demand side, boosted by the rise in oil prices, the production and sales of polyester filament have increased in stages, and the terminal stocking volume has increased month on month. Downstream polyester product inventory has been reduced, which maintains the demand for PTA procurement. Currently, July is in the traditional off-season for textiles, with frequent high temperatures and extreme weather in summer leading to low operating rates for textile enterprises. However, the peak season orders for “golden September and silver October” usually begin to be concentrated from mid August, and there is no urgent need to replenish inventory in July. Terminal orders are differentiated, and knitting orders have slightly increased, while weaving orders remain quiet.
In the future, it is necessary to observe the further evolution of the US Iran conflict, slow completion of PX maintenance, and tight PX supply, so there is still support on the cost side. The textile market will gradually enter the autumn and winter order stocking window period. It is expected that downstream polyester production will slightly increase, and the demand for replenishment will increase, which will have a positive effect on prices in the current stage. But in August, PTA plants will restart one after another, with loose supply margins and concentrated release of supply increments, which may put pressure on prices. In the short term, the PTA market is still dominated by fluctuations. Since July, the domestic PTA market has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with an average spot market price of 6036 yuan/ton in East China, up 6.15% from July 2nd.

Recently, the formic acid market has experienced a sharp decline. As of July 20, the benchmark price for formic acid stood at 2,000 yuan per ton, down 13% from 2,300 yuan per ton recorded on July 13 of the previous week.

The initial phase operated smoothly overall, with prices remaining stable over the long term
In early mid-July, the domestic formic acid market operated smoothly overall, with prices maintaining a stable trend for an extended period. This was primarily supported by the dynamic equilibrium between supply and demand. Prior to this, the industry experienced a phased recovery in shipments, effectively reducing on-hand inventory and bringing overall corporate stockpiles to a moderate and reasonable level. The alleviation of inventory pressure provided a solid foundation for formic acid prices. Although the market remained stable, the industry had officially entered the traditional off-season for demand. Downstream end-users lacked concentrated restocking needs, and there were no new positive stimuli in the market, resulting in persistent lack of upward momentum. Consequently, the market remained in a stagnant and rigid pattern, with both upward and downward space constrained.
The persistent shortcomings on the demand side continue to emerge, leading to a shift in market trends
As time progressed, market bearish factors gradually accumulated, becoming the key to the trend reversal. The shortcomings on the demand side continued to emerge, the off-season effect intensified, and downstream enterprises maintained weak procurement intentions, sticking only to rigid demand-based purchasing models. The overall market trading atmosphere remained subdued, with persistent insufficient demand support. The sluggish demand directly led to a slowdown in corporate shipments, hindered the flow of goods within the market, and caused industry inventories to gradually accumulate. The balance between supply and demand was slowly disrupted, further exacerbating the downward pressure on the market.
Affected by the concentrated fermentation of negative factors, the domestic formic acid market experienced a significant decline in late July. In addition to the core drag of persistently weak terminal demand and rising inventory pressure, intensified market competition further amplified the price drop. Facing a sluggish market environment and mounting inventories, some formic acid producers adopted a discounting sales strategy to clear existing stock and capture market share. This disrupted the previously stable pricing system, driving the mainstream market prices to rapidly decline and ultimately resulting in a single-day drop of nearly 9%, marking the official entry of the market into a weak operational phase.
Market Outlook: In the short term, the current market lacks clear supportive factors, with downstream demand in the off-season struggling to recover quickly. The industry’s inventory digestion cycle remains lengthy, and the domestic formic acid market is likely to continue its weak consolidation trend, with potential for minor price fluctuations and declines. Subsequent market movements will primarily depend on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory digestion in the industry.

This week, there was a strong push on the cost side, and at the same time, there was still follow-up demand for essential purchases. With no inventory pressure, the quotes from the main acrylonitrile suppliers were overall pushed up. As of July 17th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 9700-9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is between 9600-9700 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Basic fundamentals show no significant fluctuations:

There is no fluctuation in the equipment during the week, and the supply side is maintained. According to statistics, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories this week (July 10-16) was 72.52%, unchanged from the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 84600 tons, which is the same as the previous cycle. The strong cost push has driven suppliers to raise prices, and the buying mentality has prompted downstream users to follow up on restocking, resulting in smooth inventory digestion for the enterprise. According to statistics, as of July 15th, the total inventory was about 42200 tons, an increase of 0.38 million tons from last week.
This week, there was little change in the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 59.70%, unchanged from last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 72.90%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 53.96%, which is+0.16% compared to last week. The maintenance plan of Henan Zhengjia has been postponed to August.
Significant increase in cost:
The raw material cost significantly increased during the week, and the increase in acrylonitrile was not as significant as that of propylene, resulting in a continued decline in theoretical production profit. According to statistics, as of July 16th, the main mainstream price of propylene in Shandong’s market closed at 8700-9000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 8850 yuan/ton, an increase of 850 yuan/ton from last week. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 10808 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 7.91%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -1268 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -842 yuan/ton.
Post production forecast:
There is currently no significant fluctuation expectation in the supply and demand fundamentals in the short term, and changes in the cost side may still dominate the price trend of acrylonitrile. Due to weak demand and cautious purchasing mentality, there is resistance to the continued upward push of acrylonitrile. However, the current loss situation will also prompt suppliers to continue to raise prices. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market may once again return to a stagnant consolidation situation in the short term, waiting for the settlement to be announced this month.

1、 Price trend: After a sideways oscillation, it stabilizes and the overall center of gravity shifts downwards
This week (July 9-15), the benchmark price of melamine showed a trend of “slight fluctuations first, then stabilizing sideways”. As of July 16, the benchmark price of melamine was 6012.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% compared to the beginning of this month (6050.00 yuan/ton).

From the perspective of cycle position, the positions of 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, 90 day, and one-year cycles are all marked as “low”, indicating that the current price is in a price depression in the past year, with no price support advantage in both the long and short term, and the bullish atmosphere in the market is extremely weak.
2、 Dimension of spot moving averages: Long and short moving averages simultaneously decline, creating a strong bearish atmosphere in the market
The short-term 10 day moving average (red line) and the medium-term 20 day moving average (blue line) have simultaneously emerged from a continuous downward channel, and the 10 day moving average has been under long-term pressure below the 20 day moving average. The 10 day minus 20 day moving average value has been in the negative range, and the standard bearish pattern has been established:
1. Lack of inflection point signal: There has been no change in the moving average from negative to positive during this week’s cycle, and there is no bullish signal that the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average. The market has no technical basis for bullish counterattacks;
2. Obvious suppression above: Two moving averages simultaneously move downwards, forming layers of pressure bands, and spot prices always hover below the moving averages. Even if they stabilize in the short term, they are unable to break through the pressure brought by the moving averages upwards;
3. Lack of upward momentum: In recent days, market prices have remained flat without any rebound, indirectly reflecting that downstream only maintains rigid sporadic purchases, and intermediaries have a weak willingness to actively push up prices, with no incremental funds entering the market to support the market.
3、 Cost side support weakens, raw materials continue to drag down the market
The core raw material of melamine, urea, weakened synchronously. The benchmark price of urea this week was 1770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from 1813.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The cost support of raw materials continued to loosen:
1. Urea is in the off-season of agricultural demand, with factory inventory accumulation and pressure on shipments, resulting in a continuous decline in urea prices, directly compressing the bottom of melamine costs;
2. The decline in raw materials weakens the industry’s confidence in rising prices, making it difficult for upstream melamine production companies to speculate on price increases at the cost end. Even if prices are low, there is no cost advantage driving a rebound.
4、 Interpretation of Supply and Demand Fundamentals
supply side
The industry’s production remains stable, with no significant destocking of manufacturers’ inventory, and sufficient supply of spot goods in the market; The decline in raw material urea has led to a slight decrease in production costs for some units. Enterprises have not engaged in centralized maintenance and production reduction, nor have they actively controlled quantities to maintain prices. The loose supply of goods has suppressed the room for price increases.
Demand side
The downstream industries of sheet metal and adhesives have entered the traditional high temperature off-season, with fewer terminal orders for home decoration and building materials. Downstream factories can purchase and use them as needed, and there is no centralized replenishment behavior; Traders mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach, with a low willingness to purchase and stockpile goods at low prices. Transactions maintain a small level of essential demand, and there is no incremental benefit on the demand side.
5、 Prediction of future market trends

1. Short term (next week): The technical moving average bearish trend has not changed, and the cycle position is at a low level. Coupled with weak raw material urea, melamine is likely to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level, making it difficult for prices to rebound significantly. The price range of 6010-6030 yuan/ton is mainly characterized by repeated sideways movements;
2. Mid term turning point: In order to reverse the weakness of the market, two major signals need to appear. One is that the moving average changes from negative to positive (the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average), forming a technical upward signal; Secondly, downstream sheet metal industry orders have rebounded and urea raw materials have bottomed out, resulting in a simultaneous bullish trend on both the supply and demand sides;
VI. Summary
This week, the overall stability of melamine is relatively weak, with prices falling slightly and falling into a low-level sideways trend. The technical moving average continues to be bearish, while the raw material urea weakens synchronously. Downstream demand is weak during the off-season, and the long short pattern is clearly biased towards bearish. At present, the market relies solely on rigid demand transactions to maintain circulation, lacking favorable factors that can drive price increases. The short-term market situation is difficult to change from a weak operating pattern, and it is necessary to continuously track the trend of raw material urea and the recovery of downstream plate production, waiting for the emergence of a double turning point of moving average and supply and demand.