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Melamine prices fell 0.36% weekly! Weakness persists amid bearish alignment

1、 Market Review

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

This week, the melamine market as a whole showed a trend of “high-level decline and narrow consolidation”. As of May 8th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% compared to the beginning of this month (6875.00 yuan/ton), and it is basically in a sideways consolidation stage.
From the price trend in the past three months, the market has experienced a roller coaster like situation: in early February, the price bottomed out around 5700 yuan/ton, and then continued to rise under the push of cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. In early April, it reached a stage high of 9675 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 70%; But since mid April, the price has rapidly fallen, and as of May 8th, it has dropped to 6850 yuan/ton, with a drop of more than 29% from the high point. Currently, the price is in the mid to low range of the past year, slightly higher than the low point of 5375 yuan/ton this year, and there is still a price difference of nearly 3000 yuan/ton from the high point this year.
2、 Interpretation of core technology signals
According to the analysis logic of the moving average of Business Society’s spot trading platform, the moving average indicator of the melamine market this week has sent a clear adjustment signal:
The 10 day moving average continues to operate below the 20 day moving average, and the moving average shows a negative expansion trend, corresponding to the market’s accelerated decline stage. On May 6th, a signal of “1/07 bottoming out” appeared, confirming the continuation of the short-term downward trend. Prices have always been under pressure below various moving averages, and the rebound is weak.
From the perspective of moving averages, the 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day moving averages still show a clear bearish trend, indicating a lack of short-term upward momentum in prices and a weak pattern that has not yet been reversed.
From the perspective of cycle position, the current price is at a low level in both the 10/20/30/60 day cycle, and at a medium low level in the 90 day and one-year cycles, indicating that the short-term price has entered a temporary bottom range and the downward momentum has weakened.
3、 Fundamental core influencing factors
Cost side: The core raw material of melamine is urea. Recently, the overall urea market has been weak, and prices have been under pressure to decline. As of May 8th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1867.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the beginning of this month (1875.00 yuan/ton). Directly weakened the cost support of melamine.
Supply side: The high prices in the early stage stimulated the increase in industry operating rates, and some shutdown and maintenance facilities were gradually restarted. The market supply of goods increased, especially in the East China region where there was sufficient circulation of goods, and the pressure on enterprises to ship increased.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have entered the traditional off-season, with low terminal operating rates and insufficient willingness to purchase for essential needs. The market lacks centralized stocking demand and has a low acceptance of high priced sources, resulting in a weak overall trading atmosphere.
After experiencing significant fluctuations in the early stages, market participants tend to be cautious. Traders mainly rely on shipping to recoup funds and are unwilling to actively receive and stockpile goods; Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude, waiting for prices to further fall. The overall market presents a mentality of “buying up, not buying down”, further exacerbating the weak operation of prices.
4、 Market price forecast and trend outlook
Judgment on the price trend of melamine market in the next 1-2 weeks:

Price range prediction: It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 6700-7000 yuan/ton, with the core support level around 6700 yuan/ton and the pressure level at 7000 yuan/ton.
The short-term downward momentum has weakened to some extent, but the bearish pattern of the moving average has not yet reversed. Coupled with the impact of the off-season demand, it is difficult for prices to rebound significantly, and it is highly likely to maintain weak consolidation. The possibility of a slight bottoming out cannot be ruled out. If the price falls below 6700 yuan/ton, the downward support will look towards the 6500 yuan/ton line.
Overall, the current melamine market is in a weak consolidation stage after a decline, lacking clear upward drivers in the short term, and the weak pattern is difficult to quickly reverse. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the price of raw material urea, changes in downstream demand, and adjustments in industry operating rates. These factors will be the key to determining whether the market can stop falling and stabilize.

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The silicon market experienced a slight decline in April

On April 30, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9390 yuan/ton, which decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 0.53% compared to April 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9440 yuan/ton).
1、 Trend Review

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

In April, the overall market situation of Metal Silicon 441 # showed a “first suppression and then rise, with a slight decline during the month”. The price of Metal Silicon 441 # started from 9410 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and quickly fell to 9360 yuan/ton in early April, a decrease of 0.85%. It then entered a narrow range of oscillation and repair, gradually recovering to 9390 yuan/ton in the middle and late of the month and stabilizing. As of April 30th, the domestic market price reference for metal silicon 441 # is 9200-9700 yuan/ton.
Market influencing factors
From April 1st to 10th, the market price of metal silicon 441 # rapidly fell, and the downward trend was mainly affected by weak market trading and insufficient downstream purchasing willingness, which dragged down the price pressure due to demand. From April 11th to 20th, the market price of metal silicon 441 # was in a low oscillation stage, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. The price fluctuated slightly in the range of 9360-9370 yuan/ton, and the downward trend slowed down. From April 21st to 30th, the market stabilized and rebounded, with prices recovering to 9390 yuan/ton and remaining stable. The improvement in the market was mainly supported by marginal improvements in supply and demand.
Market analysis in the future
Currently, the overall performance of the 441 # silicon metal market is stabilizing. With the southwest region entering a period of abundant water in May, the expectation of electricity price reduction is increasing. The pace of resuming production of silicon plants in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places will accelerate, and the market supply expectation will increase. In terms of downstream demand, the demand for real estate and consumer electronics downstream of organic silicon terminals is steadily recovering, which provides certain support for silicon metal. The increase in exports of aluminum alloy power equipment and the demand for lightweight automobiles is relatively mild, and overall demand is expected to slow down. It is expected that in May, the metal silicon market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

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In April, the acetic anhydride price weakened and declined

Acetic anhydride prices fell in April

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

The acetic anhydride market experienced a weak downward trend in April. As of April 30th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1157.5 yuan/ton or 17.24% from the price of 6712.5 yuan/ton on April 1st.
On the supply side, the production of acetic anhydride remained stable within the month, and the market supply of goods was stable. The company maintained a focus on shipping; Downstream demand has shown poor performance, with sluggish procurement of high priced acetic anhydride and a general trading atmosphere in the market. In order to promote shipments, companies have shifted their price focus downwards; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid has shown a significant decline, with weak cost support, which has a negative impact on the price of acetic anhydride, driving the continuous decline of the acetic anhydride market.
Acetic acid market weakly declines in April
As of April 30th, the price of acetic acid commodity was 3193.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.61% compared to the beginning of the month price of 4530 yuan/ton. The operating rate of acetic acid has increased within the month, with sufficient market supply and weak downstream demand. The company’s shipments are poor, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. At the same time, the raw material methanol is fluctuating, and the cost support is limited. The fundamentals of acetic acid are bearish, and the price trend is weak and downward during the month.
outlook for the future market
Analysts believe that the raw material acetic acid has limited downward space due to cost pressure, and industry players are mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, which provides some support for the price of acetic anhydride; The acetic anhydride plant on the supply side is operating smoothly, and downstream demand is following suit. The market supply and demand are in a game, and it is expected that the acetic anhydride market will be weak and stable in May. The price will be adjusted accordingly, and the specific price changes will be closely monitored in the upstream.

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The market price of isopropanol first rose and then fell in April

1、 Price trend

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol first rose and then fell in April. On April 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 9283.33 yuan/ton, and on April 29th, the average price was 8716.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the beginning of the month.
In April, the market price of isopropanol first rose and then fell, indicating an overall decline in prices. In the first half of the year, the market price of isopropanol first rose and then fell, with the rise being the main trend, supported by the increase in raw material prices, and the market trading was still acceptable. In the middle of the month, the market price of isopropanol fell, downstream terminal demand was weak, and new orders from production factories were poorly traded, resulting in a decrease in quotations. The domestic isopropanol market fell first and then rose in the latter half of the year. Supported by raw material costs, some production factories have experienced narrow price increases, mainly driven by rigid demand. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 8500-8600 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in Jiangsu region are around 8800-9000 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price first rose and then fell in April, and overall the price fell. On April 1st, the average price of acetone was 8012.5 yuan/ton, and on April 29th, the average price was 7737.5 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3.43%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere is good, and it is expected that the acetone market will operate strongly in the short term.
In terms of raw material propylene, the domestic propylene market price fluctuated and rose in April. On April 1st, the market average was 8784.33 yuan/ton, and on April 29th, the average price was 9351 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.45%. At present, international oil prices continue to rise, and propylene market trading is good. It is expected that the propylene market price will be strong in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Isopropanol analysts believe that the market price of isopropanol rose first and then fell in April. At present, the mentality of the cargo holders is stable, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. It is expected that the isopropanol market will maintain stable operation in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the trend of the raw material market.

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The weak supply and demand dynamic persists, with antimony ingot prices fluctuating downward in April

In April 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market experienced a volatile downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 168000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 161250 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 4.02% throughout the month. In April, the overall performance of the domestic antimony ingot market showed an increase in price decline, weak supply and demand, and intensified long short game. The sustained weakness of terminal demand became the core factor leading to the weakening of the market. The supply side gradually formed a bottom support force under the support of factors such as mine shutdown and refinery active production reduction. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets returned to a high outside and low inside pattern. The market trading atmosphere was more active than before, but the overall situation is still in a weak adjustment stage, and the price center continues to shift downwards.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Supply side:
Due to control measures and accidents, domestic antimony mines have been shut down for rectification, resulting in a contraction in raw material output. Coupled with a decrease in overseas raw material sources and an inverted price difference between domestic and foreign sources, the import replenishment efforts are limited; Although the import volume of antimony raw materials was relatively high in the first quarter and the short-term supply of goods was relatively loose, the continuous decline in antimony prices this month has compressed the profits of smelting enterprises. Refineries have generally adopted operations such as shutting down furnaces and reducing production, and reducing inventory and production. Coupled with the overall higher overseas antimony prices than domestic prices, the export circulation of goods is restricted, and the overall market supply pressure is gradually easing. The industry’s proactive production control has brought certain bottom support to antimony prices.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: Antimony oxide is the core downstream application field of antimony ingots, mainly used in the production of flame retardants. The overall transaction volume of antimony oxide this month is relatively weak. Affected by a shortage of orders in downstream industries such as plastics and electronics, flame retardant companies have a low purchasing willingness. Although bromine prices have significantly decreased this month, easing the cost pressure on flame retardant companies, there has been no substantial improvement in terminal demand. Companies only maintain essential replenishment, with weak willingness to actively stock up. The continued weak purchasing demand for antimony oxide has indirectly transmitted to the antimony ingot market, resulting in insufficient support for antimony ingot demand.
Photovoltaic: The photovoltaic field is an emerging demand growth point for antimony ingots, mainly used for photovoltaic glass production. In April, the demand in this field continued to be weak, which failed to effectively stimulate the antimony ingot market. The current photovoltaic glass industry is in a weak operating situation, with continuously low capacity utilization, high inventory pressure, and a strong atmosphere of production reduction and cold repair in the industry. The strong expectation of price reduction in the terminal market, slowdown in overseas shipments, and lower than expected module production have led to a synchronous contraction in the procurement demand for antimony ingots by photovoltaic glass enterprises, further exacerbating the weak situation on the demand side of antimony ingots.
Market outlook: In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, and the weak demand trend is difficult to change in the short term. The recovery of core downstream demand such as photovoltaics and flame retardants is weak, which still exerts pressure on antimony prices; However, the expectation of supply side contraction continues to strengthen, with refineries proactively reducing production, mines shutting down for rectification, and the inverted price difference between domestic and foreign markets suppressing imports, providing bottom support for antimony prices. It is expected that the domestic antimony ingot market will be in a stage of supply-demand rebalancing in May, with prices likely to fluctuate in a narrow range, limited downward space, and insufficient rebound momentum. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand, the implementation of refinery production cuts, and the impact of international antimony price fluctuations.

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A sharp drop of over 20% within the month! When will the market bottom out when the price of melamine breaks through 7500 yuan?

1、 Market Review
This week, melamine has emerged from an extreme market trend of “sharp decline followed by sideways trend”. The benchmark price of Shengyi Society fell from 8050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7025 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a cumulative decline of 12.73% for the whole week, almost wiping out most of the previous gains and becoming the week with the most severe decline since this round of rise.
Core driving factors for decline
1. In the early stage of price surge on the supply and demand side, the market is overly optimistic about the peak season demand for downstream boards and coatings. However, terminal demand has not shown any improvement this week, and downstream enterprises only maintain essential procurement, resulting in a complete collapse of their willingness to accept high priced orders; At the same time, the equipment that was shut down for maintenance in the early stage resumed production, and the market supply quickly rebounded. The supply-demand contradiction shifted from tight balance to loose, and prices lost their upward support.
At the beginning of the week, a sharp drop of nearly 10% in a single day broke the market’s bullish expectations, and pessimism quickly spread. Some traders chose to clear inventory at low prices to avoid risks, exacerbating the downward pressure on the market.
Trend prediction
Based on this week’s technical signals and market fundamentals, the following are the predictions for next week’s trend:
Short term (1-2 weeks): Due to the “negative expansion” stage of the mean, the momentum of inertia decline still exists. There is a strong pessimistic sentiment in the market, and downstream buyers are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the price will repeatedly compete around the 7450 yuan/ton line. If the support is weak, there is still a risk of further exploring the 7000 yuan integer level.
Mid term (1 month): Pay attention to when the 10 day moving average will level. Only when the price stops falling and stabilizes, and the moving average shifts from “negative expansion” to “negative contraction”, is it a signal of slowing down the decline and market bottoming out.

Melamine

In April, the domestic natural rubber market saw a slight rise in prices

Since April 2026, the natural rubber market has seen a slight increase. As of April 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17150 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.52% from 16566 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Due to weather disturbances, the rubber cutting process at home and abroad is slow, and the overall supply is tight. The main production areas of Yunnan and Hainan in China continue to experience high temperatures and little rainfall, and some areas in Yunnan have temporarily stopped cutting due to drought. After cutting in Hainan, the release of glue is slow. Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Vietnam have also been affected by drought disturbances, leading to higher prices for raw material adhesives. Raw material prices in Thai production areas have reached a new high in recent years, with strong cost support. ANRPC data shows that global natural rubber production may slightly contract in 2026, with a supply and demand gap of about 400000 tons for the whole year, and the expectation of tight supply is rising.
Downstream tire companies experience narrow fluctuations in production, with strong demand support being the main factor. As of the week of April 24th, the construction rate of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies was 7.7%; The construction of all steel tires by Shandong tire enterprises started at 6.90%. The demand for natural rubber has some support, but tire inventory continues to rise. The turnover days of all steel tires are nearly 40 days, and the turnover days of semi steel tires are over 43 days. Enterprise procurement is mainly based on rigid needs, and the willingness to replenish inventory is low. ​
Port inventory has slightly increased: as of April 26, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 716300 tons, an increase of 7500 tons compared to the previous period, with a growth rate of 1.06%. ​
Market forecast:
Overall, if the precipitation in the production area continues to be low in the later stage, the expectation of tight supply will be strengthened, and the price is expected to be tested at 17500 yuan/ton; If the drought situation eases, the amount of new glue added accelerates, and the inventory turnover slows down, the price may fall back to around 16500 yuan/ton. ​

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Weak supply and demand, Copper prices mainly fluctuate widely

1、 Trend analysis

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices have fluctuated widely this week. As of the 24th, copper prices were reported at 102618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 31.36%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 7 and risen by 6, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 396000 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 0.61% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the initial value of the US manufacturing PMI in April directly hit 54.0, far exceeding expectations and setting a new high in nearly four years. What does this mean? The US economy is so hot that there is no need for the Federal Reserve to urgently cut interest rates. The employment data is also very hard, with only a slight increase in the number of initial jobless claims. The US dollar index rebounded in response, approaching the 99 level, and the US stock market closed down across the board. For non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars, this is undoubtedly a blow.
Supply side: The acid shortage problem in Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to ferment, and the accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia casts a shadow over the recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year. Although the news of the resumption of production at the Lu’anxia copper mine in Zambia has brought a slight easing, the global surplus reversal predicted by ICSG indicates that the background of tight supply-demand balance remains unchanged.
On the demand side: The traditional sector is showing signs of fatigue, with insufficient consumption of “gold, silver, and four”. Traditional consumer sectors such as real estate, construction engineering, infrastructure construction, and white goods have shown sluggish performance. Due to limited profit margins in these industries, it is difficult to digest the pressure of raw material costs of up to 100000 yuan, which in turn has a very limited driving effect on copper consumption. However, the explosive power of emerging fields is filling this gap. According to data from the International Energy Agency, the global increase in photovoltaic power generation leads renewable energy, coupled with the construction of domestic AI computing centers, the expansion of PCB production, and the strong growth of “new three types” exports (electric vehicle, lithium battery, and solar cell exports increased by 77.5%, 50.4%, and 30.5% respectively in the first quarter), opening up a new growth pole for copper consumption. In addition, the double increase in the transaction area of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities last week also revealed a weak signal of recovery in the real estate sector.
In summary, copper prices are currently in a game of “strong expectations” and “weak reality”. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of copper oversupply in 2026, but also warns of supply risks that may arise from sulfuric acid shortages. The upper part is constrained by the fear of high spot prices and the strength of the US dollar, while the lower part is supported by the shortage of mining resources and geopolitical risks. There is no basis for unilateral skyrocketing or plummeting. For the future market, short-term copper prices are likely to experience wide range fluctuations.

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Cost and consumption both weak, ABS price continues to decline

Fundamental analysis

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Supply level: In mid April, the domestic ABS industry experienced a combination of maintenance and resumption of work, with an overall low and stable level. The overall operating level of the industry is slightly increasing at around 60%, with an average weekly output of nearly 130000 tons and finished product inventory rising to 200000 tons. In the short term, there is still a slight expectation of incremental changes in production in the future, and the supply on the market is generally abundant. Overall, the support for spot prices from the ABS supply side has remained flat.
Cost factor: In early April, the situation in the Middle East was volatile, and the mentality of oil market operators was divided. Since mid month, the core logic of the market has rapidly shifted from the previous geopolitical conflict premium to negotiating easing expectations and resonating with negative fundamentals. Combined with the four factors of IEA lowering supply and demand expectations and API inventory surge, international oil prices have plummeted. Affected by it, the upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the petrochemical chain, all fell. Although the industry load of acrylonitrile is not high, the arrival of cargo at the port is low. But the shrinking domestic demand in the market and the sluggish spot trading have dragged down the price center of gravity. A pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices falling. In late April, the domestic ABS market continued to decline, with most spot prices gradually decreasing. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, as of April 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 10916.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.49% from the beginning of the month.
There has been a significant decline in the butadiene market. The gradual loosening of cost support and the weak boost of downstream demand have become the core factors driving the market trend. Even if the overall supply of spot goods is tight, it is difficult to hedge the downward pressure brought by weak demand. The industry as a whole presents a game pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices falling and adjusting in stages.
The styrene market continues to decline. In the short term, there is an expectation of a reduction in petroleum benzene on the raw material side, especially with a continuous decrease in imported sources. The domestic supply and demand pattern of pure benzene tends to be strong, but it is difficult to offset the guidance brought by the heavy decline in crude oil. However, the current consumption of styrene lacks effective driving force, and the market lacks the motivation to continue rising, which may put prices in a dilemma.
In terms of demand: As we enter late April, downstream ABS enterprises are showing a flat trend in production, with the main terminal electrical housing industry experiencing average consumption and no improvement in terminal enterprise profitability. The atmosphere inside the venue has shifted from chasing gains to killing losses, and there has been a significant reduction in operations to replenish and build positions. Merchants offer lower profits in their profit taking positions, causing a drag on the price center. The current ABS finished product inventory position continues to rise, and the buyer camp’s resistance to high priced goods is expanding. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
future market forecast
In early April, the domestic ABS market continued to decline. The production load of the aggregation plant has generally leveled off, and the on-site supply is still abundant. The cost and material prices have all fallen. The current ABS market is in a dual negative situation of high cost decline and weak demand. Under high production capacity, centralized maintenance has limited suppression on inventory accumulation. At present, spot prices are declining at a high level, and trading on the market is relatively quiet.

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Raw materials are declining, and the PA66 market has recently fallen from its high level

1、 Market Review of the Past Week

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

In the past week (April 15-21), the PA66 market has shown a high volatility trend with a slight decline after a surge. On April 14th, the benchmark price of PA66 in Shengyi Society rose to 25100 yuan/ton, setting a new high in price in a year; On April 21st, the benchmark price of PA66 was reported at 24100 yuan/ton, which was slightly lower than April 14th. However, it still rose by 4.93% in 10 days, 20.50% in 30 days, and 52.85% in 60 days, maintaining a high overall trend.
2、 Cause analysis
Cost side – high raw material prices, strong cost support is the core driving force
The raw material side continues to remain at a historically high level, which is the core driving force behind the price increase of PA66 in this round.
In terms of hexamethylenediamine, the execution price of NVIDIA in April has been raised to 26000 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the beginning of the year. In the first quarter, the market price of hexamethylenediamine in East China rose from 16300 yuan/ton in early January to 28000 yuan/ton at the end of March, with a cumulative increase of 11700 yuan/ton, or 71.78%.
In terms of adipic acid, the cumulative increase in the first quarter exceeded 50%. Although the benchmark price of adipic acid slightly decreased by 0.63% in mid April compared to the beginning of the month, the overall trend is still relatively high in history. Adipic acid in East China increased from 7025 yuan/ton in early January to 10800 yuan/ton at the end of March, an increase of 53.74%.
Although the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased recently, the energy premium in the early stage has been deeply embedded in the industrial chain, making it difficult for the short-term cost center to move downwards, and the cost pressure on production enterprises is still relatively high.
Supply and demand side – supply contraction, weak demand, forming a stalemate pattern
The tight supply side supports prices. Recently, there has been a decrease in imported goods, resulting in tight spot circulation in the market and a strong reluctance among traders to sell. Both manufacturers and traders have overall low inventory levels. Supply contraction provides support for spot prices.
Weak demand suppresses upward potential. The downstream textile industry has a low acceptance of high prices and generally adopts the strategy of “small order demand, on-demand procurement”. Large order purchases are rare, and trading activity is insufficient, forming a stalemate pattern of “supply side control and demand suppression”. Some traders have started to sell at a discount in their profit taking positions, which has weakened market confidence.
3、 Short term forecast for the future market
It is expected that the PA66 market will maintain high volatility in the short term, and there is little possibility of a significant unilateral increase or decrease in prices. Overall, strong cost support and weak demand will continue to play a game, with price trends highly dependent on changes in the raw material side and downstream order recovery progress. If there is no significant improvement in terminal demand, high prices or suppression of production will lead to the continuation of the “price but no market” situation.

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