1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices fluctuated and rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 106055 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 109423.33 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 3.18% and a year-on-year increase of 39.13%.
The copper spot price in August was higher than the main contract price, indicating strong support for copper prices in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory first fell and then rose in August. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 234275 tons, a decrease of 1.71% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the macroeconomic data of the United States in August continued the stagflation background of “slowing growth and stubborn inflation”. The final value of GDP in the second quarter confirmed a quarterly growth of 1.48%, which continued to slow down from 2.1% in the first quarter; The core PCE recorded 3.3% year-on-year in July, still far from the target of 2%. Federal Reserve’s Walsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, clearly prioritizing price stability in policy. CME data shows that the probability of market expectations for a rate hike in September has risen from 35% to around 60%. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI for August was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, with both production and demand expanding simultaneously. Geographically, the US Iran conflict has been recurring, the issue of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and the situation in the Middle East has caused intermittent disruptions to market sentiment.
Supply side: The continuous tight supply from the mining side is the core contradiction of the copper market in August. The International Copper Research Group (ICSG) has lowered its forecast for global copper production growth in 2026 from 2.3% to 1.6%. Chile’s copper production in July decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, and mainstream mining companies such as Antofagasta have lowered their annual production guidelines. The processing fee for copper concentrate has accelerated its decline, and as of the week ending August 28th, the imported copper concentrate index has fallen to -1998.84 US dollars per dry ton, reaching an extremely low historical value. In terms of refined copper production, the estimated production of electrolytic copper in August was 1.1392 million tons, an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous month, but a decrease of 2.76% year-on-year, reflecting that the shortage of copper concentrate has formed a substantial constraint on production. In terms of recycled copper, Europe and the United States are promoting the return of manufacturing industries and tightening the supply of overseas scrap copper, while the supply of domestically traded scrap copper is substantially tightened.
Downstream: August is in the traditional off-season for consumption, and overall terminal demand is weak. High copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream procurement, and companies are cautious in their willingness to stock up at high prices and hold onto essential procurement in multiple dimensions. In terms of the operating rate of refined copper rods, as of August 20th, it was 61.2%, which has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level; Terminals such as cables and enameled wires are suppressed by high copper prices, resulting in weak overall demand. In terms of structural highlights, emerging fields such as AI computing power and new energy require resilience; The demand in the copper foil field has significantly rebounded, and AI servers have driven rapid growth in demand for high-end HVLP copper foil. The real estate market remains weak, automobile production and sales have declined, demand in the air conditioning industry has weakened, and traditional terminal demand lacks incremental support.

influencing factors
Entering September, core variables will be concentrated: the Federal Reserve’s September 17 interest rate meeting will set short-term financial conditions, and if interest rate hikes exceed expectations, it will suppress risk appetite; Will the 232 tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese copper materials be officially implemented at the end of September, reshaping global trade flows; The accelerated issuance of domestic special bonds is directly linked to the quality of “Golden September and Silver October” consumption. In addition, the TC of copper concentrate has fallen to around -200 US dollars, and we need to be vigilant about the expansion of unplanned production cuts by Chinese smelters; The concentration of LME registered warehouse receipts is relatively high, and the risk of warehouse crowding has not yet been eliminated.
In summary, copper prices fluctuated strongly in August due to the shortage of mining resources and low inventory support, but off-season consumption and expectations of interest rate hikes limited the upper space. Looking ahead to September, the marginal rebound in peak season demand and policy expectations provide bottom support, but the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the pace of US tariff implementation, and geopolitical risks will increase the volatility. If the macro bearish sentiment is realized, copper prices may first suppress and then rise; If the fundamental squeeze returns, it is expected to reach a new high. Overall, maintaining a high and wide range of volatility judgment, the tight supply pattern is still the core safety cushion for bulls.

The PTA market in August showed an overall upward trend, with a price of 5945 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month in East China, up 6.02% from 6303 yuan/ton at the end of the month. In August, the domestic PTA market experienced a structural upward trend, driven by a significant contraction in the supply side and cost support from geopolitical disturbances in crude oil. However, overall terminal demand was weak, indicating a typical supply driven market rather than a significant rebound in terminal consumption.

The overall market shows obvious stage differentiation. In early August, the PTA market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, with downstream textile terminal orders continuing to be weak in the off-season. The overall market demand was insufficient, and polyester factories mainly replenished their inventory for essential needs, lacking centralized replenishment actions. Market trading sentiment was flat, and price fluctuations were limited. In mid August, the market logic completely reversed, and multiple large-scale PTA main units in China entered a centralized maintenance cycle. The industry’s operating rate quickly fell to a low of around 63% for the year. The supply of goods in the spot market has significantly tightened, enterprise inventories continue to deplete, and social inventories have fallen to low levels, highlighting the tight spot market pattern. At the same time, international crude oil is subject to strong fluctuations due to the geopolitical situation, and upstream PX raw material prices are rising synchronously. Under the dual positive resonance, PTA prices have entered a significant upward trend, with significant monthly increases.
Looking ahead to the future, the long short game in the PTA market will intensify in September, and the market may shift from a unilateral rise to a high-level oscillation. The pressure on the supply side is gradually becoming apparent. From the end of August to early September, multiple sets of main equipment that had undergone early maintenance were restarted and put into operation, and the industry’s operating rate quickly rebounded. The tight spot market pattern that had lasted for nearly a month is gradually easing, and the increase in market supply will directly suppress the further upward space of PTA prices.
The marginal weakening of cost side support has led to significant fluctuations in international crude oil prices due to geopolitical disturbances, resulting in high market uncertainty. At the same time, PX maintenance facilities are gradually resuming production, and the supply and demand of raw materials are becoming more relaxed, weakening the cost support for PTA. Subsequently, prices will follow more fluctuations in the crude oil pulse market.
The demand side remains the core variable of the market, and the market has officially entered the traditional “golden nine” consumption peak season, but there is significant uncertainty in the recovery of terminal textile orders. In addition, the profits of the polyester industry are squeezed by MEG prices, putting pressure on the production profits of enterprises, and there is a risk of a decline in the subsequent polyester operating rate.

On August 1, 2026, the electrolytic manganese market saw a slight increase. The spot market price in East China was at 18000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 18150 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.83%. In the first half of the year, the market remained sideways and watched, while in the middle half, prices rose slightly supported by enterprise production control and low inventory. In the second half of the year, prices stabilized and operated.

There is rigid support on the cost side, and the slight decrease in manganese ore prices has eased the pressure on raw materials, but the prices of electricity, sulfuric acid, selenium dioxide and other auxiliary materials in the southwestern production area remain stable. The structural contradiction between supply and demand runs through the whole month, with supply side enterprises actively limiting production, tight supply of goods, and a strong mentality of raising prices; On the demand side, stainless steel is in the traditional off-season, with steel mills only purchasing for immediate needs and having a strong willingness to lower prices. The stable demand for lithium manganese materials only serves as a bottom line, and the market is mostly replenished as needed, resulting in overall low transaction volume. As the overseas summer break approaches its end, export inquiries have increased month on month, but there is insufficient follow-up on actual orders, which only slightly boosts market sentiment and fails to substantially boost the market.
In terms of manganese ore: In July, the overall import volume of manganese ore in China increased both month on month and year on year, and the cumulative import volume during the year was significantly higher than the same period last year. Overseas mineral sources continued to increase, and domestic port raw material inventories remained high. The overall supply environment of the mining end was loose. In August, mainstream overseas mining companies lowered their shipping quotes to China, while South African semi carbonate and Australian block shipping quotes decreased month on month. In September, forward shipping quotes continued to weaken, and long-term low-priced ore expectations continued to suppress the upper limit of electrolytic manganese raw material costs. In terms of supply structure, South African mines are still the main source of domestic imports, but the corresponding shipping schedule and arrival in August have declined compared to the previous month. Australian and Gabonese mines have received stable shipments, and there has been no significant adjustment in the supply structure.
The spot price of manganese ore in mainstream domestic ports fluctuates narrowly, and the trend is differentiated between grades: the spot price of high-grade Australian blocks remains firm, South African semi carbonate slightly strengthens, and low-grade high-speed iron manganese ore continues to fall; The high priced manganese ore at the port continues to accumulate inventory, traders are lowering prices to sell and recoup funds, smelters are purchasing sporadically according to demand, and there is no large-scale hoarding operation, resulting in a lack of sustained upward momentum in mineral prices. The overall production of domestic Yunnan Guizhou and Hunan local mines is stable, with only a small number of small-scale mines experiencing slight production reductions due to environmental protection and equipment maintenance, which has a weak impact on the overall raw material supply. The manganese price ratio in the field has been at a low level for a long time, and the purchasing pace of smelters is conservative, making it difficult for the mining end to continue raising prices.

On the supply side, the three core production areas of Guangxi, Guizhou, and Hunan generally implement staggered production and phased shutdowns. In August, the overall production capacity release rate of the industry was at a low level for the year, and most small and medium-sized smelters maintained half load production. The pace of resuming production for shutdown and maintenance enterprises was slow, and only the top large factories were operating at full load. The incremental increase brought by the new production line was limited, and the monthly total output of the industry slightly declined compared to July. Among them, less than half of the production enterprises in Hunan production area were in production, and the output increment further contracted. Combined with the regional quotation tracking of Shengshe, the ex factory price of the main production area has been lower than that of the East China circulation market for a long time; The industry generally adopts a sales based production model to control the pace of shipments. The inventory of finished products in smelters continues to be depleted and has fallen to a low level within the year. The market has a scarcity of low-priced circulating goods, coupled with the synchronous low inventory of traders in transit. There is no condition for a large amount of selling to suppress prices in the market, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell and maintain prices. Orders below the comprehensive cost are mostly not accepted, and there is very little room for spot discounts; Although the purchase price of manganese ore has slightly eased the pressure on raw material costs, the industrial electricity prices in the main production areas of Southwest China are running at a high level, and the prices of auxiliary materials such as selenium dioxide and sulfuric acid have not fallen back. The low operating state has also pushed up the fixed production cost per unit, and most small and medium-sized smelters are in a break even or slightly losing state, further suppressing the industry’s concentrated resumption of production. The short-term supply increment is difficult to release.
On the demand side: In August, the stainless steel industry entered the traditional off-season for consumption, with downstream end product orders weakening and processing plants contracting. Major steel mills completed the bidding for electrolytic manganese for the month, with top steel companies bidding prices remaining the same as last month. Local small and medium-sized steel mills lowered their bidding prices, and overall only maintained rigid demand procurement and obvious willingness to reduce prices. There was no pre concentration replenishment behavior. Although the spot price of 200 series stainless steel slightly rebounded, downstream pursuit of price was weak, and finished product transactions were sluggish, which in turn suppressed the purchasing power of electrolytic manganese; The demand for lithium manganese oxide and high-purity manganese sulfate in the lithium battery industry chain is stable, with leading precursor companies receiving monthly orders in a fixed quantity. The order scale is stable but without any increase, and can only support the basic market demand. The procurement rhythm of special alloy and electronic new material enterprises is normalized, mostly small batch scattered orders, with low sensitivity to manganese price fluctuations; In terms of overseas markets, the gradual end of the summer break in Europe and America has led to an increase in inquiries from overseas alloy factories and traders compared to the previous period, and the mentality of export merchants to support prices has rebounded. However, the recovery of overseas terminal orders lags behind, and the increase in actual transactions is limited. Overseas buyers have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and exports only play a role in boosting sentiment, unable to reverse the overall pattern of weak domestic demand.

In August, the domestic spot price of manganese silicon showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a low benchmark quotation at the beginning of the month and a significant increase in price at the end of the month, with a full month increase of nearly 4.8%. At the beginning of the month, the market was suppressed by low prices from steel mills during the off-season and high inventory from enterprises, resulting in low prices. In the middle of the month, the overall sentiment of the black series rebounded, coupled with a slight increase in manganese ore costs, driving the gradual rebound of manganese silicon spot prices. In the latter half of the month, the monthly bidding of steel mills was launched, and the bidding prices in various regions were raised compared to the middle of the month. The market transaction center continued to shift upward. The smelting plants in the main production areas of the supply side have continued to reduce production and the number of furnaces has decreased in the early stage, and the market circulation of goods has shrunk to some extent. However, the overall inventory in the plant is still at a high level, which limits the increase; The steel industry on the demand side is in a traditional off-season, with weak iron production from steel mills, only maintaining essential procurement, and no centralized replenishment actions. Price increases are more driven by costs and market sentiment. The narrow range strength of manganese ore at the raw material port, coupled with stable electricity and coke costs, provides support for the bottom of manganese and silicon. However, downstream actual consumption has not improved synchronously, and the sustainability of market growth is weak. The operation pattern of low-level repair and narrow range oscillation and uplift has been maintained throughout the month.
Market forecast: Based on comprehensive industry chain and business monitoring data, the overall expectation for the electrolytic manganese market in September is expected to fluctuate strongly and experience a slight recovery. Positive support comes from the arrival of the traditional peak season for stainless steel, the increased willingness of downstream terminals to stock up, and the expected improvement in purchasing demand from steel mills. Coupled with the continuation of supply side production control policies and overall low industry inventory, the rigid bottom of electricity and auxiliary material costs has limited risk of a significant decline in the market. On the negative side, the weakening of overseas forward manganese ore quotations will weaken raw material support, slow the recovery of terminal orders, or delay the release of peak season demand. If the market continues to improve and drives smelters to turn losses around, the resumption of idle production capacity in the early stage will suppress upward space. The core driving force of the future market trend will shift from cost support to peak season demand expectations, making it difficult to break out of a unilateral surge. The overall trend will maintain a gradual and moderate recovery, with a focus on tracking the pace of resumption of production in major production areas, monthly bidding by steel mills, changes in port manganese ore inventory, and actual overseas export transactions.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (August 19-25), the domestic PA66 market hit bottom and stabilized, with prices slightly rising from the previous low of 17833.33 yuan/ton. After a slight increase of 0.93% on August 21, spot prices remained stable at around 18000 yuan/ton, with limited price fluctuations during the week. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 10 day price position quickly rose to a high level, indicating a short-term bullish signal; The position of the 20-90 day cycle is still in the mid to low range, and the bottom of the mid to long term price has not completely detached.
1. Cost analysis
The upstream supply of adiponitrile is relatively loose, and there has been no significant increase in raw material prices. The cost support for PA66 production is weak, and there has been no strong cost pull. Upstream chemical raw materials such as pure benzene and adipic acid have fluctuated and consolidated, with no obvious negative or positive drivers on the cost side. The driving force for this week’s market rise is not from the increase in raw material prices, but more from the proactive quotation repair behavior of factories after spot oversold.
2. Supply and demand analysis
In terms of supply, the domestic PA66 industry has maintained a moderate level of production, and some equipment maintenance has been completed in the early stage. The supply of goods in the industry has steadily rebounded, and the overall pressure on spot inventory is still acceptable. After a round of price reductions and destocking in the early stage, manufacturers’ willingness to ship at low prices has weakened, and prices have rebounded.
From the demand side, downstream modified plastics, injection molding, and nylon spinning factories have a cautious pace of replenishing inventory. After a wave of low-priced stocking, downstream buyers showed weak willingness to chase after higher prices and mainly relied on on-demand procurement for essential needs. There was no large-scale centralized replenishment of inventory, and the follow-up to demand was limited. The upward trend lacked sustained downstream support in terms of volume. Therefore, after the price rebounded, it entered a period of horizontal stalemate.
2、 Future forecast
The short-term PA66 market may mainly fluctuate at a high level and experience a slight tug of war. Short term indicators have shown signs of a 10 day cycle of overselling, limiting their short-term rapid upward momentum; The medium to long term prices are still in the mid to low range of the year, with solid support from the bottom of costs and the previous low point, and there is not much room for a significant further decline. The overall market is likely to maintain a fluctuating range of 17800-18300 yuan/ton, waiting for further guidance from downstream demand for the “Golden Nine” project.

In August, domestic PTA experienced a market trend of first fluctuating and then rising. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark spot price in East China was about 5945 yuan/ton. In the first half of the month, there was a long short game, and downstream textile demand was weak, resulting in a narrow range of price consolidation. In mid August, multiple PTA units underwent centralized maintenance, causing the industry’s operating rate to drop to a low point for the year. Spot goods sources tightened and inventory continued to be depleted; The rise in international crude oil and PX raw materials has brought cost support, and PTA has opened up a rising market. As of August 25th, the benchmark price of Business Society PTA was 6453 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.53% from the beginning of the month.

Looking ahead, in the short term, PTA will enter a stage of supply-demand rebalancing and high volatility, with significant weakening of unilateral upward momentum. The turning point on the supply side is clear. From the end of August to early September, multiple sets of pre maintenance main equipment will be restarted, and the industry’s operating rate will quickly rebound. The tight spot market pattern that has lasted for nearly a month will gradually ease, and the increase in supply will directly suppress the upward space of prices.
The cost side will show a trend of marginal weakening of support. International crude oil is subject to repeated geopolitical disturbances, maintaining a wide range of fluctuations and increasing uncertainty in volatility. As of August 24th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $85.01 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $90.54 per barrel. At the same time, PX maintenance facilities in Asia are gradually resuming production, and the expectation of loose raw material supply is heating up. The rise in PX prices is slowing down, and the cost support for PTA will gradually weaken in the future, making it difficult to continue driving price increases.
The demand side core focuses on the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season cash flow. At present, downstream polyester production is maintaining a median level, enterprise inventory is within a reasonable range, and the market is expected to have sufficient stocking during peak seasons, forming a solid bottom support for PTA prices. However, there is still uncertainty in the terminal textile market, and the recovery pace of export and domestic orders is relatively slow. If the peak season terminal orders are not as expected, the recovery of polyester production and sales will be hindered, which will in turn drag down PTA demand and trigger price corrections.
Overall, analysts believe that there will be supply pressure on PTA in the short term, with peak season and cost support, mainly characterized by range fluctuations. Benefiting from the zero growth pattern of production capacity in the medium and long term, there will be no new production capacity added to the PTA industry in 2026, and the seven-year capacity expansion cycle will come to an end. The medium and long term supply pattern will continue to optimize, providing bottom support for prices and processing fees. The supply and demand structure continues to optimize, with strong price resilience. The follow-up focus will be on tracking the progress of equipment resumption, fluctuations in crude oil, production and sales of polyester, and the landing of terminal orders.

1、 Trend analysis

Nickel prices have fluctuated widely this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 129783 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the beginning of the week and up 7.95% year-on-year.
Macroscopically, long and short positions are intertwined at the macro level. Influenced by the unexpected announcement of the US Treasury Secretary to expand the scale of long-term treasury bond bond repo, the US dollar weakened, the nonferrous metals sector strengthened as a whole, and nickel prices were boosted. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has once again released hawkish signals, with multiple officials leaning towards raising interest rates, and market trading logic shifting towards the risk of another rate hike within the year. The situation in the Middle East continues to fluctuate, with both the United States and Iran continuing to make tough statements, and cross-strait shipping has not yet resumed. Domestically, the LPR remained unchanged in August, and the fixed assets investment fell significantly in July, with real estate still the main drag. Although the macro atmosphere has warmed up, the fundamentals still lack directional driving.
Supply side: The overall supply side is relatively loose. Indonesia’s RKAB quota policy has entered a close game stage, with more than ten companies approved for revision, and expectations of quota relaxation are heating up. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines has announced that it has begun approving quota increases for some companies RKAB, but the specific amount has not been disclosed. In terms of refined nickel, the global explicit inventory has returned to a high level of accumulation, with a weekly increase to 395000 tons. LME nickel inventory is reported at 268488 tons, with 112277 tons of nickel inventory from the previous period. The explicit inventory of approximately 380000 tons in both domestic and foreign markets constitutes the core suppression. China’s refined nickel inventory is about 116600 tons, and the overall supply is abundant.
On the demand side: The overall demand side is weak. In terms of stainless steel, traditional consumer demand is weak during the off-season, and downstream acceptance of high priced resources is limited. Transactions only show a temporary recovery before returning to a flat state. This week, steel mills have significantly loosened their prices, and the profit margin of 304 cold rolling has turned negative, causing steel mills to fall into cost inversion. The inventory of 300 series stainless steel has increased to 586000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.56%, further highlighting the contradiction between supply and demand. In terms of new energy, the production of ternary cathode materials in July was 89220 tons, an increase of 2.48% compared to the previous month. However, downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to purchase, mainly for essential needs. Overall, the two main lines of nickel demand – stainless steel rigid bottom support and cautious replenishment of battery nickel – are difficult to provide strong support.
Influencing factors: The main factors affecting nickel prices this week include: firstly, the uncertainty of Indonesia’s RKAB quota policy continues to disrupt the market, with expectations of quota relaxation alternating with expectations of supply tightening; Secondly, high global inventory is the core factor suppressing the rebound in nickel prices. LME inventory is approaching the 270000 ton mark, and the explicit inventory of about 380000 tons, both internally and externally, forms a solid resistance band; Thirdly, mining costs provide bottom support, with Indonesia’s HMA nickel price rising to $16960/ton in the second half of August, and sulfur prices operating at a high level; Fourthly, at the macro level, the weakening of the US dollar and the hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve are mutually pulling each other, and nickel prices are fluctuating with the non-ferrous sector.

In summary, the nickel market showed a pattern of “high inventory suppression, cost support, and weak supply and demand” last week. Although the macro sentiment has warmed up, the trend of nickel in the non-ferrous sector is relatively under pressure due to high inventory. The approval result of Indonesia’s RKAB quota is still a core concern in the market. If the quota increment is lower than expected, it may drive nickel prices to recover upwards. If new quotas are concentrated and implemented, the rebound space will be limited. Looking ahead to next week, nickel is expected to maintain range fluctuations, with a focus on the progress of Indonesia’s quota approval, LME inventory changes, and downstream replenishment willingness.

1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices have slightly decreased this week. As of August 21st, the copper price was reported at 107893.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.79% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 36.93%.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 239925 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 15.45% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the US CPI rose by 3.4% year-on-year in July, while the core CPI slowed down to 2.5%; PPI rose 4.7% year-on-year, lower than expected. Inflation continues to cool down, coupled with lower than expected non farm employment, the market’s pricing for the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate hike has dropped to around 35%, and the US dollar index has fallen to the 99th level, ushering in a valuation repair window for commodities. But the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting released a hawkish signal, with long-term US bond yields rising again and geopolitical risks continuing to suppress risk appetite.
Supply side: Global copper mine supply contraction intensifies, with Chile’s copper production in the first half of the year decreasing by 6.7% year-on-year and Peru’s copper production in June decreasing by 4.7% year-on-year. This week, Las Bambas mine was temporarily shut down due to an accident, and Caserones mine’s recovery was hindered by a snowstorm. BHP has lowered its production guidance. Copper concentrate TC has fallen to a historical low of -175.37 US dollars per dry ton, making it difficult to alleviate the short-term shortage situation in the mining sector.
On the demand side: Currently in the off-season of consumption, high copper prices significantly suppress downstream purchasing intentions, and market transactions are mainly driven by essential needs. The domestic spot price has changed from a premium of 80 yuan/ton to a discount of 170 yuan/ton. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises is 65.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.08 percentage points. The operating rate of refined copper is still weak year-on-year, and the overall consumption in traditional fields is weak.
Influencing factors:
Positive factors: cooling inflation in the United States, falling expectations of interest rate hikes, weakening of the US dollar, and improvement in macroeconomic sentiment; The long-term contradiction of insufficient capital expenditure in global copper mines persists, with deep negative TC values, making it difficult to alleviate the shortage at the mining end; COMEX and LME inventories are severely differentiated, putting pressure on spot liquidity in non US regions; The peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” is approaching, and the demand for new energy and other fields continues to grow.
Negative factors: LME inventory is rapidly recovering, squeezing sentiment is easing, and copper prices are being suppressed; Traditional consumption is suppressed by high prices during the off-season, and downstream purchasing intentions are insufficient, resulting in the continuation of the spot discount pattern; The Federal Reserve’s policy expectations are fluctuating, long-term bond yields are rising, and geopolitical risks persist; The US tariff policy is currently the biggest variable, and its implementation may trigger a “win-win” adjustment.
In summary, copper prices have surged and fallen this week, putting pressure on LME as it approaches historical highs. On the macro level, the cooling of inflation and the expected decline in interest rate hikes provide support, but long-term bond rates and geopolitical risks suppress sentiment. The shortage of mining resources has not changed, but LME inventory has rebounded to alleviate the pressure of short selling; The demand side is weak overall due to the combination of low season and high price suppression. The core contradiction – supply constraints at the mining end and structural mismatch of inventory – has not undergone fundamental changes.
In the short term, LME inventory continues to rise and the squeeze sentiment eases, putting pressure on copper prices to fluctuate and adjust. However, the mining sector is tight and TC continues to weaken, coupled with the support of the expected peak consumption season, there may not be much room for adjustment. In the medium to long term, the logic of insufficient capital expenditure and expansion of emerging demand in copper mines still holds true.

In August, domestic nitrile rubber first fell and then rose with a narrow range of fluctuations. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of August 20th, the price was 17000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.64% from 16725 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of August 20th, Lanhua Nitrile N41E in East China offered a price range of 17200 to 17300 yuan/ton; The mainstream price for 2665 in Russia ranges from 16400 to 16500 yuan/ton.

Multiple sets of cracking units for upstream raw material butadiene supply have been overhauled, resulting in a month on month decline in domestic production. The inventory of ports in East China has dropped to around 32000 tons, and there is a shortage of imported cargo arriving at the port. Spot resources have tightened, and coupled with the rise in crude oil prices again, butadiene manufacturers have strong efforts to raise prices. Data shows that the price of butadiene has risen from 10016 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12000 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.80%; The acrylonitrile industry has maintained a production rate of 69-71%, with some units undergoing periodic maintenance, and overall it is at a relatively low level. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of acrylonitrile has risen from 11133 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11866 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.59%.
On the supply side, domestic nitrile rubber enterprises maintain a high operating rate of 82% -86%, with low factory inventory and strong willingness from manufacturers to raise prices; The pace of imported goods arriving at the port has slowed down, and the arrival of Japanese and Korean goods at the port has declined month on month. The shortage of spot goods of tight brands has formed a bottom support.
The demand side remains the main drag, with seal and hose sample enterprises operating at 48% -53% capacity. The nitrile glove industry is experiencing differentiated production, with downstream operations generally running at low inventory levels. Raw material procurement is mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak willingness to proactively replenish inventory and limited acceptance of high prices. Traditional off-season orders have not shown significant volume growth, suppressing upward potential.
Market forecast:
Nitrile rubber experienced a continuous decline for three months in the early stage, and the price was found to be at a low level in early July. From July to August, nitrile rubber hit the bottom and stabilized, rebounding. The 5/10 day moving average took the lead in turning upwards, standing above the 20, 30, and 60 day moving averages, completing the bullish repair of the moving average. The current price is above various moving averages, indicating a short-term rebound pattern; The recent upward trend has slowed down and entered a period of oscillation and grinding.
Overall, the short-term volatility of nitrile rubber is dominant, with limited downward space. Butadiene and crude oil are core variables, and if monomers continue to strengthen, there will be a slight upward trend in spot prices; If the raw materials fall, the market will follow suit and weaken. There are expectations for the “Golden September” in September, but whether downstream product production can rebound still needs to be verified.

Since August, the domestic PTA market has shown an overall trend of “first stabilizing and oscillating, then rising strongly”, and the overall price has shown a significant increase in upward momentum.
In early August, the PTA market was under overall pressure and fluctuated, with flat market trading. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark spot price in East China remained at around 5945 yuan/ton, with narrow fluctuations in price. The market was balanced between long and short positions, with smooth fluctuations in upstream costs and insufficient follow-up of downstream textile demand. Coupled with the stable operation of some equipment, the supply and demand were relatively balanced, and the market lacked clear upward momentum.
Starting from mid August, the PTA market experienced a strong rebound, with prices rapidly rising. Due to factors such as centralized maintenance of equipment and weather affecting logistics transportation, the domestic PTA operating rate fell to a low point this year, and the market spot supply significantly contracted, while social inventory continued to deplete, highlighting the tight supply pattern. The steady rise in international crude oil and PX raw material prices has provided strong support for PTA on the cost side, leading to a surge in the market. As of August 19th, the spot price of PTA surged to 6310 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 6.13% during the month.
Analysts believe that in the short term, there is no sign of easing in the confrontation between the United States and Iran, and the pattern of high volatility in crude oil is difficult to change, which continues to build a cost bottom for PTA. In addition, the rebound in demand has further boosted the upward trend of the market, with downstream polyester factories steadily increasing their operating rates to around 82%. The traditional textile peak season stocking demand has started, and the pace of replenishing inventory for essential needs has accelerated, effectively digesting the market’s stock of goods and further consolidating the basis for price increases. However, in late August, multiple sets of maintenance equipment on the supply side were restarted, and the increase in market supply was released, gradually easing the tight supply-demand balance and suppressing the momentum of price increases. Therefore, PTA will maintain a high and wide range of fluctuations from late August to early September, and we still need to pay attention to the geopolitical news of crude oil, the progress of equipment resumption, and the recovery of downstream orders.

Since August, the domestic natural rubber market has fluctuated and risen. As of August 17th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17133 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.94% from 16483 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. ​
The supply side’s strong production season resulted in lower than expected increase in production, with strong cost support. Since August, frequent rainfall in Thailand and Vietnam has disrupted rubber cutting, and Thai cup rubber has maintained a high level of around 67 baht/kg, with strong support from raw material costs for natural rubber. Yunnan Province in China continues to experience heavy rainfall, while Hainan is approaching a halt to logging, resulting in limited production of adhesive. The supply of raw materials is tight both domestically and internationally.
The inventory side continues to destocking, with a total inventory of 642100 tons at Qingdao Port as of August 16, a slight destocking of 2900 tons compared to the previous month; The futures warehouse receipts of the previous exchange fell synchronously, easing the pressure of explicit inventory and limiting the downward space.
The demand side is in the off-season of summer, with insufficient upward momentum. As of August 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 64.32%, while the operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.01%. Finished product inventory remains high, with domestic tire companies having 40.2 days of full steel tire finished product inventory and 46.1 days of semi steel tire finished product inventory. Factories mainly adopt on-demand procurement and have a weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. ​
Recently, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have risen, and risk appetite has been restored; The strengthening of international crude oil prices has pushed up the cost of synthetic rubber, highlighting the comparative advantage and indirectly boosting trading sentiment in the natural rubber market. ​
Market forecast:
From a fundamental perspective, the short-term market for Tianjiao is expected to fluctuate within a range. The peak season for rubber cutting in Southeast Asia has suppressed the upward potential of rubber prices, but rainfall and El Ni ñ o hazards in production areas may bring pulse like fluctuations. Domestic port inventory is slowly decreasing, with low warehouse receipts providing bottom support; Tires are still in the off-season, with limited recovery in production. Downstream demand is mainly driven by essential purchases, making it difficult for demand to drive upward trends.
In September, tires enter the traditional peak season, and factory stocking is expected to drive the recovery of production, resulting in a slight increase in rubber prices. At the same time, overseas monetary policies and crude oil will also disrupt the market for Tianjiao.