1、 Price trend: After a sideways oscillation, it stabilizes and the overall center of gravity shifts downwards
This week (July 9-15), the benchmark price of melamine showed a trend of “slight fluctuations first, then stabilizing sideways”. As of July 16, the benchmark price of melamine was 6012.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% compared to the beginning of this month (6050.00 yuan/ton).

From the perspective of cycle position, the positions of 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, 90 day, and one-year cycles are all marked as “low”, indicating that the current price is in a price depression in the past year, with no price support advantage in both the long and short term, and the bullish atmosphere in the market is extremely weak.
2、 Dimension of spot moving averages: Long and short moving averages simultaneously decline, creating a strong bearish atmosphere in the market
The short-term 10 day moving average (red line) and the medium-term 20 day moving average (blue line) have simultaneously emerged from a continuous downward channel, and the 10 day moving average has been under long-term pressure below the 20 day moving average. The 10 day minus 20 day moving average value has been in the negative range, and the standard bearish pattern has been established:
1. Lack of inflection point signal: There has been no change in the moving average from negative to positive during this week’s cycle, and there is no bullish signal that the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average. The market has no technical basis for bullish counterattacks;
2. Obvious suppression above: Two moving averages simultaneously move downwards, forming layers of pressure bands, and spot prices always hover below the moving averages. Even if they stabilize in the short term, they are unable to break through the pressure brought by the moving averages upwards;
3. Lack of upward momentum: In recent days, market prices have remained flat without any rebound, indirectly reflecting that downstream only maintains rigid sporadic purchases, and intermediaries have a weak willingness to actively push up prices, with no incremental funds entering the market to support the market.
3、 Cost side support weakens, raw materials continue to drag down the market
The core raw material of melamine, urea, weakened synchronously. The benchmark price of urea this week was 1770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from 1813.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The cost support of raw materials continued to loosen:
1. Urea is in the off-season of agricultural demand, with factory inventory accumulation and pressure on shipments, resulting in a continuous decline in urea prices, directly compressing the bottom of melamine costs;
2. The decline in raw materials weakens the industry’s confidence in rising prices, making it difficult for upstream melamine production companies to speculate on price increases at the cost end. Even if prices are low, there is no cost advantage driving a rebound.
4、 Interpretation of Supply and Demand Fundamentals
supply side
The industry’s production remains stable, with no significant destocking of manufacturers’ inventory, and sufficient supply of spot goods in the market; The decline in raw material urea has led to a slight decrease in production costs for some units. Enterprises have not engaged in centralized maintenance and production reduction, nor have they actively controlled quantities to maintain prices. The loose supply of goods has suppressed the room for price increases.
Demand side
The downstream industries of sheet metal and adhesives have entered the traditional high temperature off-season, with fewer terminal orders for home decoration and building materials. Downstream factories can purchase and use them as needed, and there is no centralized replenishment behavior; Traders mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach, with a low willingness to purchase and stockpile goods at low prices. Transactions maintain a small level of essential demand, and there is no incremental benefit on the demand side.
5、 Prediction of future market trends

1. Short term (next week): The technical moving average bearish trend has not changed, and the cycle position is at a low level. Coupled with weak raw material urea, melamine is likely to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level, making it difficult for prices to rebound significantly. The price range of 6010-6030 yuan/ton is mainly characterized by repeated sideways movements;
2. Mid term turning point: In order to reverse the weakness of the market, two major signals need to appear. One is that the moving average changes from negative to positive (the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average), forming a technical upward signal; Secondly, downstream sheet metal industry orders have rebounded and urea raw materials have bottomed out, resulting in a simultaneous bullish trend on both the supply and demand sides;
VI. Summary
This week, the overall stability of melamine is relatively weak, with prices falling slightly and falling into a low-level sideways trend. The technical moving average continues to be bearish, while the raw material urea weakens synchronously. Downstream demand is weak during the off-season, and the long short pattern is clearly biased towards bearish. At present, the market relies solely on rigid demand transactions to maintain circulation, lacking favorable factors that can drive price increases. The short-term market situation is difficult to change from a weak operating pattern, and it is necessary to continuously track the trend of raw material urea and the recovery of downstream plate production, waiting for the emergence of a double turning point of moving average and supply and demand.

Market trend

influencing factors
Cost side: The raw material market has shown weak performance. The market for the main raw materials, hexamethylenediamine and adipic acid, has not fluctuated significantly recently, and the cost support is average. Due to insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, it is difficult to effectively transmit cost pressure from the raw material end to the PA66 finished product end. Although some raw material prices have fallen in the early stage, the current PA66 price is relatively low, and profit margins are severely compressed. Production companies operate near the cost line, and their willingness to further reduce prices is weak. This is also the main reason for the price stalemate this week.
Supply and demand side: In terms of supply, the overall operating load of the PA66 industry remained relatively stable this week, with sufficient spot supply on site. Some manufacturers still have some inventory pressure, and there is currently no significant positive support on the supply side. In terms of demand, we are currently in the off-season of traditional consumption, and downstream enterprises in the fields of modified plastics, engineering plastics, etc. have low operating rates. They hold onto the demand for PA66 procurement and replenishment, and their willingness to stock up is extremely low. The overall trading volume in the market is light, with few new orders and weak demand, which is the core factor restricting the price increase of PA66. The supply and demand sides are in a stalemate game stage, lacking obvious variables to break the balance.
Future forecast
It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term. Under the dual pressure of average cost support and sustained weak demand, the market lacks upward momentum. However, considering that the current price is already at a mid to low level within a year, the manufacturer has limited room for concessions, and the possibility of a significant price drop is also relatively small. Overall, the price of PA66 is likely to continue to fluctuate narrowly around 18000 yuan/ton in the short term, and there is a possibility of a slight decline due to further shrinking demand. In the past week (July 8-14), the domestic PA66 market has been running steadily, and the price trend has shown a clear “sideways” trend. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of PA66 remained stable at 18033.33 yuan/ton for several consecutive days this week, with a daily increase or decrease of 0.00%. From the perspective of cycle position, the current price is at a “low” level in the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, and 90 day cycles, and the price position is at a “medium low” level within a year. The overall market lacks obvious upward or downward volatility driving force, and the trading atmosphere is relatively stagnant.

price trend

The domestic PC market rebounded after a decline in the first half of July, and spot prices of various brands have basically rebounded to the level at the beginning of the month. As of July 14th, the PC mixed benchmark price is around 13033.33 yuan/ton, with a price level increase of 0.51% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: As we enter July, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises continues to rise. The overall industry load rate is around 80%. The production loss is gradually shrinking, and currently the weekly average production has returned to around 65000 tons. The shipping smoothness of the polymerization plant is average. Overall, the supply side has poor support for PC.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market was mainly consolidating at a low level in the first half of July, with a narrow increase. International crude oil prices have risen due to the repeated impact of the Middle East situation, leading to a significant increase in acetone and phenol. The market has a positive expectation for bisphenol A, but there will be limited supply changes in the first half of the year, and demand will remain essential. As the middle of the month approaches, the supply of legitimate goods is gradually tightening, with holders mainly raising prices, downstream low-priced goods decreasing, and the focus of actual transactions increasing. Overall, the support for PC cost value has increased.
On the demand side: The sales situation of PC downstream factories is at a low season level, and the demand for sheet metal shells is weakening, resulting in low load levels for end enterprises. The current PC prices are basically at the lowest point of the year, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The buyer is cautious in stocking up and has poor willingness to build a warehouse. The liquidity of the source of goods has slowed down, and merchants are following the market with their offers. They are cautiously trying to increase their offers. The on-site supply of goods needs to be digested, and the upward adjustment of the pricing center of the aggregation plant is limited. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In the first half of July, the domestic PC market recovered after a decline. The price of upstream bisphenol A has risen at a low level, and the cost value has provided narrow support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants continues to increase, and the expected future supply will be relaxed. On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, with cautious stocking and frequent small orders. At present, the supply and demand of PC are weak, and there is significant upward resistance in the market. It is expected that the short-term increase may be limited.

Previously, antimony prices experienced two rounds of significant declines in May and June. Currently, the overall market confidence in the industry is weak. After entering July, coupled with the influence of the traditional off-season consumption atmosphere in the industry, on-site prices have further weakened, and the overall market trading atmosphere is weak. The market has always been in a weak state of operation. From July 1st to 13th, 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market continued to decline, with an average market price of 116500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 106000 yuan/ton on the 13th, a cumulative decrease of 9.01%.

Supply side:
Domestic antimony smelting enterprises have gradually started production reduction operations as market prices continue to decline, but the overall production reduction efforts are weak, and the overall contraction effect of spot supply in the market is not significant, making it difficult to offset the pressure brought by weak market demand. In terms of raw materials, the import volume of antimony concentrate in China was relatively concentrated in the first half of the year. At present, the import source is gradually decreasing. In addition, Myanmar’s main production areas are entering the rainy season, and local production may decrease. The amount of antimony raw materials arriving at ports in Southeast Asia is gradually decreasing. In the long run, there is an expectation of tightening raw material supply. But at present, there are many low-priced goods circulating in overseas markets, which has dragged down the sentiment of the domestic market.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. The current downstream market is in a low season of consumption, and many overseas countries are gradually entering the summer break period. The demand for overseas terminal consumption has entered a temporary trough, directly dragging down the overall volume of export orders. The purchasing mentality of downstream industries in China tends to be cautious and conservative, maintaining the supply of essential goods, and the overall market demand is weak.
Antimony oxide: Currently, the downstream market for antimony oxide is overall weak, and the off-season effect is prominent. Overseas terminal demand is experiencing a phased decline, with a significant decrease in foreign trade orders and weak performance in the export market. The market trend of domestic flame retardant sub sectors is differentiated, and downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Their procurement behavior is highly cautious, and they only maintain small quantities of essential goods. The activity of on-site transactions continues to be low, making it difficult to form effective support for upstream antimony prices.
Photovoltaic: The demand for photovoltaic glass industry is weakening synchronously, the overall operating load in China continues to decline, the demand increment in overseas markets is insufficient, the export support is weak, and the overall production and sales pressure of the industry is relatively high. The procurement volume of antimony products continues to decrease, and the overall support on the demand side is insufficient.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the market lacks substantial positive momentum, and there is still room for antimony prices to decline in late July. In the medium to long term, as the rainy season in Myanmar continues to affect fermentation, the benefits of reduced raw material imports are gradually released. Coupled with the approaching traditional consumption peak season downstream, the market is expected to gradually bottom out and stabilize. In the future, the focus will be on the quantity of antimony raw materials arriving at ports, changes in photovoltaic industry operation, and the overall pace of downstream inventory replenishment.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to monitoring, the price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market has decreased this week. The average price of titanium dioxide at the beginning of the week was 16460 yuan/ton, and the average price of titanium dioxide at the weekend was 16240 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.34%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices have been lowered. The price of titanium concentrate in the upstream market has slightly decreased, while the demand in the downstream market is light, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The market sentiment is not good, with a focus on wait-and-see measures. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14600-18000 yuan/ton; The price of the titanium type is around 13600-14200 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the domestic titanium dioxide market price will decrease this week. At present, enterprise inventory is high, market conditions are weak, and downstream demand is sluggish. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be weak in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices first fell and then rose. As of July 10th, copper prices were reported at 104223.33 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the beginning of the week and up 32.47% year-on-year.

LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 307750 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 2.29% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the overnight US dollar index fell slightly by 0.09%, closing at 100.904, providing price support for non-ferrous metals denominated in US dollars. The three major indexes of the US stock market all rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.27% to 52487.41, the S&P 500 rising 0.81% to 7543.64, and the Nasdaq rising 1.30% to 26206.89, indicating a rebound in market risk appetite. However, international oil prices have fallen, with WTI crude oil dropping $1.44 to $72.08 per barrel in August (a decrease of 1.96%), and Brent crude oil falling $1.72 to $76.30 per barrel in September (a decrease of 2.20%), exerting some pressure on commodity inflation expectations.
Supply side: The global shortage of copper concentrate is difficult to change, and the import spot TC has fallen to a historical freezing point of -128 US dollars/ton. Coupled with Kazakhstan’s suspension of sulfur exports, the profits of the smelting side have been compressed to the extreme.
On the demand side: July is the traditional off-season for consumption, and cable and air conditioning production has weakened compared to the previous month. Although the power grid and new energy orders provide bottom line support, copper consumption in the real estate chain is still at a low level. The main demand for spot purchases is due to insufficient willingness to chase after high prices, which restricts the upward potential of copper.
In summary, the fundamentals of copper varieties are relatively strong at present, such as the sustained low TC, continuous supply disruptions from the mining sector, favorable AI narratives on the demand side, and relatively stable output from the power grid. However, there is uncertainty in the macro aspect (such as the market’s rebound in expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike), which makes it impossible to form a unilateral strengthening market. It is expected that copper prices will show a fluctuating and strong pattern at present.

Product Name: Pure Benzene
Latest Price: The market average price on July 9 was 7,436.67 yuan per ton, up 3.72% from the previous trading day.
Analysis: The domestic pure benzene market price has risen. International crude oil prices surged and stabilized, while port inventories continued to decline. Downstream demand remained strong, and pure benzene producers exhibited confidence, leading to a robust price increase. Sinopec refineries in East and South China implemented a pure benzene price of 7,300 yuan/ton effective July 8. The market is expected to remain cautious in the short term, with actual transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

PA66 weakened again this week (July 1-7). On July 1st, the market reference price was 18366.67 yuan/ton. From July 1st to 6th, the price remained stable, and on July 7th, the market fell again to 18033.33 yuan/ton, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.81%. Since the high point of 20766.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of June, the cumulative decline this year has exceeded 11.56%, showing a weak downward trend of “week beginning stalemate, weekend breaking and weakening”, and the price has once again broken through the stage low.

influencing factors
Cost side: Upstream adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine continued to operate weakly this week, with no significant rebound momentum in raw materials. The comprehensive production cost of PA66 continued to decline, and the bottom support strength continued to weaken. International crude oil prices have fluctuated downward, with geopolitical premiums continuing to sell. OPEC+announced an increase in production in August, coupled with Saudi Arabia’s reduction in Asian crude oil prices. Long term weak energy expectations have suppressed upstream raw material prices such as pure benzene, and the cost side continues to form a negative drag. The current industry’s processing profits have turned from profits to losses, with some manufacturers slightly reducing their losses. However, the overall supply contraction is limited, and the cost side is only temporarily supported by a small bottom, which cannot reverse the downward trend.
Supply and demand side: The market maintains a pattern of loose supply and sustained low demand. The continuous release of new production capacity of hexamethylenediamine in the upstream of the supply side, the overall operation of aggregation enterprises remains at a moderate level, the inventory of factories and traders continues to accumulate, the pressure of shipment intensifies, and the phenomenon of cargo holders actively lowering quotations and giving discounts to promote orders increases. The traditional off-season of the demand side industry has not passed, and the recovery of downstream terminal orders for automotive parts and electronic appliances is not as expected. Downstream factories only maintain rigid small order replenishment, and the willingness to stock up in large quantities is low. Market trading is light, and it is difficult to drive price recovery through essential procurement.
Future forecast
The weak and volatile pattern of the PA66 market in the short term is difficult to change, and there is still room for a slight downward trend in prices, making it difficult to see a sustained rebound. The short-term price operating range refers to 17600-18600 yuan/ton, with a continuous low-level bottoming out. Market reversal requires waiting for clear positive signals such as a significant strengthening of crude oil, concentrated price increases of adipic acid/hexamethylenediamine, or concentrated replenishment of downstream terminals.

The melamine market continued to show signs of fatigue this week, with prices fluctuating downwards and overall weak performance. On July 7th, the benchmark price of melamine reported by Shengyi Society was 6037.50 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.21% compared to the price of 6050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of July.
1、 Spot moving average trend: clear downward trend, increasing downward pressure

From the melamine price trend chart moving average system, the 10 day and 20 day moving averages showed a downward trend throughout the entire period, with the 10 day moving average consistently running below the 20 day moving average. The downward momentum in the market is still being released, but the pace of decline has slowed down. Throughout the entire cycle, the price followed the moving average downwards, and the moving average continued to suppress spot prices.
2、 Price Level 5: Low throughout the entire cycle, limited upward potential
The cycle position data shows that melamine is marked as low throughout the one-year cycle position. Although the price is already at a historically low level, it has not attracted buying in, and the low level has not provided support. The market still maintains a bearish trend. On July 3rd and June 30th, the price slightly fell by 0.21%, while on other trading days, the price remained flat and stable at 6037.50 yuan/ton for several consecutive days, belonging to a low-level stalemate state.
3、 Upstream raw material linkage: simultaneous weakening of urea and insufficient cost support
The core raw material of melamine, urea, also showed a downward trend this week. On July 7th, the benchmark price of urea was 1802.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% from 1813.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The continuous decline in raw material prices cannot provide cost support for melamine. Upstream costs have loosened, manufacturers’ production costs have decreased, and the market’s willingness to offer discounts for shipments has increased, further suppressing the rebound space of melamine prices.
4、 Market prediction
The current melamine spread index remains negative, and the downward trend has not yet reversed. The price is at a low level throughout the entire cycle but lacks support. Coupled with the continuous weakening of upstream urea costs, the short-term market fatigue is difficult to quickly improve. The market is mainly stuck at a low level. If there is no sudden positive news to boost prices, they may continue to operate in a narrow and weak range, and there is currently no signal to stop the decline.

Recently, the domestic formic acid market has shown a phased trend of “stabilizing first and then rising, continuously climbing”, breaking away from the previous weak pattern and completing a market reversal from weak balance to steady upward trend. The market supply and demand pattern continues to optimize, and the industry trading atmosphere continues to recover. As of July 6th, the benchmark price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China was 2300 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.86% from the end of June.

Phase 1: Horizontal consolidation
From June 29th to 30th, the formic acid market continued its previous sluggish trend, with the mainstream average price stabilizing at 2020/ton and no significant price fluctuations. The overall market is in a weak equilibrium state, with industry mainstream expectations being bearish, and downward pressure on the previous market still exists. However, the market has shown signs of recovery, with some production companies slightly raising their prices. Coupled with the news of delayed resumption of industry equipment production, downstream purchasing attitudes have slightly improved, and the enthusiasm for purchasing has increased, driving manufacturers’ inventory to steadily decline and laying the foundation for subsequent price increases.
Phase 2: Continuous Upstream
During the continuous upward phase from July 1st to 3rd, the market opened up a three consecutive upward trend, with steady and even gains. On July 1st, the market reached a turning point with a significant increase in prices, with the average price rising to 2100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4%. With the continuous improvement of shipping trends and the continuous release of downstream terminal replenishment demand, coupled with the steady decline of manufacturer inventory, multiple favorable factors have formed support, driving the market to continue to strengthen. The upward trend continued in the following two days, and on July 3rd, the price rose again, with an average price of 2300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 9.52%.
Market forecast: Price “rises”, favorable supply and demand, may continue to rise
The market analysis system shows that the formic acid curve has recently shown an upward trend, with the short-term moving average surpassing the long-term moving average, indicating an upward trend.
And the price is at a long-term low, with a large upward potential.
From a fundamental perspective, industry inventory has fallen back to the median range, with some companies limiting shipments and tightening spot supply. At the same time, downstream concentrated replenishment has driven a surge in trading heat, and the resonance of supply and demand has completely reversed the weak market pattern. The formic acid market is likely to continue its strong operating trend.