1、 Market Overview: With a monthly increase of over 5%, there is a strong bullish sentiment
As of July 2, 2026, the benchmark price of propylene is reported at 7811.00 yuan/ton. Compared with 7411.00 yuan/ton in early July (June 30th), the price continued to rise during the week, with a cumulative increase of 5.40% for the month.

From the recent price trend, the market shows a strong trend of “bottoming out, rebounding, and accelerating upward”:
June 25-26: The market experienced a brief pullback, with prices dropping to around 6851 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 3.41%.
June 27-28: Prices stabilized at a low level, with a continuous increase or decrease of 0.00% for two consecutive days, building a solid bottom support platform.
From June 29th to July 1st: With the intervention of buying, prices began to rise continuously. Starting from 7211 yuan/ton, the daily increase was as high as 5.25% at one point, and then although there were slight fluctuations, the focus continued to shift upwards, eventually breaking through the 7800 yuan/ton mark and establishing a short-term upward trend.
2、 Technical Analysis of Business Treasure Spot Pass
Based on the analysis of the moving average chart and position indicators, the current technical signal for propylene is relatively strong
1. Mean Square Shape
The 20 day moving average continues to decline, and the medium-term bearish trend remains unchanged; The 10 day moving average first fell and then turned upwards, gradually approaching the 20 day moving average. The negative moving average continued to narrow, and the downward momentum was exhausted. The short-term upward signal is approaching.
2. Price in 5th tier positions
This “short high long low” position structure usually means that the market is in the early to mid stage of rebound or reversal. Although there is some profit taking pressure in the short term (10 day high), in the medium to long term, there is still significant room for recovery above, and it has not reached the long-term top resistance zone.
3、 Fundamental driven: Downstream products generally rise, forming positive feedback
The strengthening of the propylene market this week is not an isolated phenomenon, but has received strong support from downstream industrial chains:
Polypropylene (PP): As the largest downstream consumer of propylene, PP (brushed) performs excellently. The benchmark price on July 2nd was 7940.00 yuan/ton, with a 4.93% increase during the month. The firm price of PP directly improved the profit expectations of propylene production enterprises and stimulated the increase in ex factory prices.
Epoxy propane: Another important downstream epoxy propane price has also moderately increased to 7800.00 yuan/ton (+1.30%).
The price increase of downstream products has eased the pressure of cost transmission, which has increased the acceptance of high priced propylene by downstream factories, and the purchasing enthusiasm is still acceptable. The positive feedback mechanism of “product price increase driving raw material price increase” is the core driving force for propylene prices to break through the previous fluctuation range and achieve a growth rate of over 5% this week.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, the propylene market is currently in a benign channel where both quantity and price are rising. On a technical level, the bullish alignment of the moving average system supports prices to continue their inertial upward trend; Fundamentally, the release of downstream demand provides solid support.

1、 This week’s spot market trend

This week, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society showed overall weak fluctuations. From June 24th to 29th, the price remained stable in the range of 6062.5 yuan/ton for a long time, with narrow horizontal fluctuations in the market and no significant fluctuations in price; Until June 30th, the market broke through and fell, with a daily price reduction of 12.5 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.21%. The spot benchmark price fell to 6050 yuan/ton, a new low in the stage.
From a monthly perspective, as of July 1st, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% compared to the beginning of last month (6125.00 yuan/ton). The upstream raw material urea weakened synchronously, with a benchmark price of 1813.75 yuan/ton on July 1st, a month on month decrease of 0.34%. The cost side support continued to loosen, laying the foundation for the weak operation of melamine this week.
fundamentals
1. Cost side: Upstream urea prices have weakened synchronously, with a slight decrease in urea prices this month. The marginal cost of melamine production has fallen, and the cost support for production enterprises has weakened. The resistance to lowering factory quotations has decreased, and the raw material side cannot provide price increase momentum, but continues to exert strong pressure on spot prices.
2. Supply and demand side: The spot price remained flat in the first half of this week, mainly due to the weak balance between market supply and demand. Factory inventory remained stable, downstream board and coating rigid demand procurement remained stable, and there were no concentrated high-volume orders; In the second half of the week, the price broke the level, reflecting the continuous weakening of terminal demand, the increasing wait-and-see sentiment in downstream markets, the slowing down of the pace of purchasing, and the slight increase in pressure on manufacturers to ship, resulting in passive price cuts to promote transactions.
Prediction of future market trends
Short term trend: The current moving average index has entered a negative expansion range, corresponding to a signal of accelerated decline; At the same time, although the price of melamine is at a low level throughout the entire cycle, there are no signals to stop the decline such as the turning of the moving average or the convergence of the moving average. The short-term weak operating pattern of melamine prices is difficult to reverse, and there is still a small downward exploration space.

In June, the domestic ABS market experienced a significant decline, with most spot prices of various grades falling sharply. As of June 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.46% from the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter June, the domestic ABS industry’s equipment load remains stable with small fluctuations, and the overall operating rate within the range is around 58%. The current weekly average output is 125000 tons. The inventory of finished products will begin to accumulate in the second half of the month, and as of the end of the month, it has approached 240000 tons. The shipment situation of aggregation plants within the range remains sluggish, and there is no expectation of a contraction in production in the short term. Overall, the support for spot prices from the ABS supply side in June is average.
Cost factor: Since June, there have been frequent reports of preliminary peace agreements between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. In mid to late month, high-level officials from both sides intensively released positive signals. Although it will take some time for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to fully recover, the market predicts that the Middle East is easing, geopolitical premiums are quickly clearing, and oil prices have plummeted. Affected by it, the cost value of the upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the petrochemical chain, has been dragged. The cost value of acrylonitrile has decreased, and downstream consumption is weak. However, there was a shortage of spot resources in the middle of the month, and at the same time, the industry’s capacity utilization rate declined again, resulting in a brief upward trend in the market in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, there was a basic rebound, and there was a lack of positive guidance for the future market, resulting in insufficient market momentum.
In June, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and the focus of market transactions continued to decline, resulting in a sluggish overall trading atmosphere. Although some companies have fulfilled their maintenance obligations, downstream end products have poor profits and there is a lack of inventory expansion operations. The futures market is synchronously following the weakness of spot trading, and the pessimistic trading sentiment in the market continues to spread. The market may still be in a weak downward channel.
Since June, the styrene market has continued to decline. From the perspective of raw materials, the geopolitical premium has fallen, and the market lacks confidence in the demand side, resulting in a weak decline in pure benzene prices. However, the domestic supply of styrene has shifted from tight at the beginning of the month to balanced, and coupled with the lack of effective driving force for styrene consumption, the market lacks upward momentum. In the second half of the month, multiple sets of styrene plants in China will restart and cash in, and the supply is expected to become loose. It is expected that the short-term trend of styrene will be weak and volatile.
On the demand side, there were limited changes in the start of work for downstream ABS enterprises in June. The main terminal appliance industry has entered a off-season, with poor consumption of appliance casings and no improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises. The atmosphere inside the venue is buying up instead of buying down, and there has been a significant reduction in replenishing and building positions. The buyer camp has a high resistance to high priced goods, and merchants follow the market and lower their withdrawal funds. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
post-market forecast
The domestic ABS market continued to decline in June. The production load of the aggregation plant has fluctuated narrowly, inventory has accumulated, and the on-site supply remains within a sufficient range. The overall trend of cost and material is weak. The current cost collapse of ABS, prominent supply-demand contradictions, downward shift in spot prices, and sluggish trading on the market.

On June 1, 2026, the electrolytic manganese market saw a slight increase at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the spot market price in East China was 18200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 18250 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.27%.
In the first half of this month, the mainstream price of electrolytic manganese in China was slightly increased by 50 yuan/ton, which was the only price adjustment action of the whole month. The market price remained stable in the second half of the month without any fluctuations. Overall, the fundamentals of the electrolytic manganese market in June were in a game equilibrium state. At the beginning of the month, it was driven slightly upwards by cost and manufacturer price hikes, but downstream terminal demand did not continue to follow up and lacked the driving force to continue rising. The subsequent market entered a narrow range oscillation mode, with on-site trading mainly focused on long order fulfillment and stable procurement of rigid demand. The spot circulation rhythm was stable, and the overall market remained stable with a slight upward trend and no obvious upward or downward trend.
In terms of manganese ore: In June, the overall cost of electrolytic manganese remained stable with some support, but there was insufficient upward momentum, which supported a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton in the market at the beginning of the month. However, the market continued to remain flat and stagnant thereafter. This month, domestic manganese ore spot prices have remained weak and stable, with a narrow range of fluctuations. Downstream price pressure games are evident, and port spot transactions are average. The price difference of mineral types has slightly differentiated, with a relatively prominent decline in South African manganese ore prices. The overall spot price at the port is stable, with transactions of about 37 yuan/ton for South African semi carbonate at Tianjin Port and 40.5-41 yuan/ton for Gabonese blocks; The ore prices in Qinzhou Port fluctuate with inventory structure, with Australian seeds priced at 36.5-38 yuan/ton and Australian blocks priced at 41.5-42 yuan/ton. In terms of foreign markets, South African mines slightly lowered their shipping prices to China in July. UMK and NMT’s South African semi carbonate prices were reduced by 0.15 USD/ton and 0.1 USD/ton respectively compared to the previous month, and the arrival price of foreign markets continued to be higher than domestic spot prices, continuing the inverted market pattern. Combined with the pressure of losses on downstream silicon manganese enterprises, the willingness to import goods and accept new orders is relatively weak. At the same time, the dry season in major domestic production areas has ended, with stable power supply and no fluctuations in electricity prices, and the comprehensive production cost of electrolytic manganese remains stable. Overall, the manganese ore and production costs have formed a solid bottom support, supporting the slight price increase at the beginning of the month. However, the mining face remains weak and there is no upward trend, making it difficult for the cost side to drive the market to continue rising, which has led to the overall market maintaining a stable pattern.

Supply side: In June, the overall supply of electrolytic manganese in the domestic market was stable and orderly, with sufficient supply and stable circulation rhythm. Mainstream production areas such as Guangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, and Ningxia have started operating smoothly without centralized maintenance or large-scale production restrictions. The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a normal level, and the monthly output is stable. Mainstream smelters prioritize the delivery of long-term contract orders, with a regular shipping rhythm and ample supply of circulating spot goods in the overall market. Social inventory remains within a reasonable range, with no significant accumulation or destocking extremes. The overall pricing mentality of the manufacturers is still acceptable. At the beginning of the month, the borrowing cost and supply situation remained stable, and the quotation slightly increased. However, the overall loose supply pattern remained unchanged, and sufficient supply constrained further price increases, causing the market to quickly enter a stable stalemate after rising.

On the demand side: The overall downstream demand for electrolytic manganese in June remained stable and weak, with stable production and a lack of incremental demand, which is a key factor in maintaining market stability. Core downstream stainless steel and special steel enterprises have started production steadily this month. Steel mills mainly purchase raw materials by replenishing inventory as needed and picking up goods in batches. At the beginning of the month, they moderately followed up with market price increases to support short-term market strength. However, the performance of end product orders is average, and the industry is in a traditional off-season, with insufficient overall demand growth. The downstream demand for supporting industries such as alloy smelting and chemical engineering remains flat, with average production enthusiasm, stable raw material consumption rate, and no favorable release of centralized replenishment. The speculative buying sentiment in the market is relatively weak, with only the demand side supported by actual orders. The stagnant pattern of weak or weak demand has left the market without a basis for a sharp decline or sustained upward momentum, and the market has been running steadily in a narrow range throughout the entire process.
At present, silicon manganese maintains a narrow fluctuation operation, and the cost support of silicon manganese is still acceptable. Manufacturers face significant production pressure, and most production areas are currently experiencing production inversion. Some factories may have plans to reduce production in the later stage. However, under the background of seasonal off-season, inventory pressure and expectations of new production capacity release in some regions still suppress confidence in the market. Business Society predicts that the manganese silicon market may continue to operate weakly in the short term. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 29th, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) is around 5500-5600 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 5542.00 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: Based on the fundamentals of market operation in June, the domestic electrolytic manganese market is likely to continue its narrow range oscillation and stable stalemate pattern in the short term, with limited room for fluctuations. On the cost side, the current manganese ore spot market continues to weaken and stabilize, with a slight decrease in forward quotes for external markets. The inverted pattern between internal and external markets continues, and there is a lack of upward momentum on the cost side. However, the electricity prices in production areas are stable, and the comprehensive production costs are controllable at a low level. The bottom support is relatively solid, and there is no basis for a sharp decline in the market. On the supply side, the construction in major domestic production areas will remain stable, with sufficient supply of goods and minimal inventory fluctuations. The overall supply-demand loose pattern remains unchanged, and there is no significant expectation of tightening. On the demand side, downstream steel mills are in the off-season, and the pattern of stable demand continues. There is currently no significant rebound in terminal finished product orders, and the market is mostly picking up goods in batches according to demand. The lack of incremental demand makes it difficult to drive the market to continue to rise. Overall, the electrolytic manganese market will continue to maintain a supply-demand game in the future, with stability as the main trend and narrow range consolidation. The focus will be on changes in manganese ore prices, the pace of downstream steel mills’ centralized replenishment, and the adjustment of production in major production areas.

Silver prices fell sharply in June

On May 29, 2026, the silver market quoted 14185.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 21.86% from the spot price of 18154.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (6.1).
The general logic of silver operation in June is as follows:
The sharp drop in silver prices this month is due to the resonance of multiple factors, including the reversal of expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the strengthening of the US dollar and bond yields, the retreat of safe haven funds, the stampede of speculative funds, and the weakening of industrial demand. The main reason is that the strong inflation and employment data in the United States have raised expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The hawkish signals released at the interest rate meeting have driven the real interest rates of US bonds and the US dollar index to rise simultaneously, reducing the attractiveness of interest free precious metals; Combined with the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the concentration of safe haven funds leaving the market, the previous crowding of long positions triggered a stop loss stampede. At the same time, the slowdown in the growth of silver demand for photovoltaics weakened the support of industrial fundamentals. Silver itself has greater volatility elasticity than gold, and the decline is further amplified under the linkage of internal and external markets.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy expectations have completely reversed
Expected to fully switch from “interest rate cuts” to “interest rate hikes”; At the beginning of the year, the market bet on multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which was the core driving force behind the surge in silver prices in the first half of the year; However, the stickiness of US CPI and PCE inflation data in May and June exceeded expectations, and the resilience of non farm employment was extremely strong, with inflation falling short of the target.
On June 17th, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting released hawkish signals; The interest rate remains unchanged at 3.5% -3.75%, but the dot matrix chart raises the annual interest rate expectation, with nearly half of officials expecting a rate hike within 2026; Walsh made it clear that anti inflation should be prioritized and liquidity should be tightened, and deleted the forward-looking wording of interest rate cuts.
Price significantly based on the probability of interest rate hikes; According to data from the Zhishang Exchange, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December has risen to over 86%, completely ending the logic of interest rate cuts.
The rise in real interest rates suppresses silver; Silver is an interest free asset, with a significant increase in nominal and real yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds. The opportunity cost of holding silver has skyrocketed, and funds have shifted from precious metals to fixed income assets in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, putting immense pressure on silver prices.
Middle East geopolitical easing and collective escape of safe haven funds
In June, the US Iran conflict cooled down, and both sides reached a memorandum of understanding. The risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was lifted, and the geopolitical panic premium quickly dissipated; In the first half of the year, a large amount of safe haven speculative funds flowed into gold and silver for hedging. After the risk landed, they concentrated on redeeming, selling and leaving, and gold and silver weakened synchronously.
The marginal weakening of industrial demand cannot offset macroeconomic pressures due to fundamental factors
The core industrial demand for silver comes from the photovoltaic industry. Currently, the photovoltaic industry is generally promoting silver reduction and silver substitution technologies, resulting in a continuous decline in silver consumption per unit of photovoltaic power. The growth rate of silver demand for photovoltaic power has slowed down and the increment is lower than expected; Although there has been an annual gap in global silver supply and demand for the sixth consecutive year, the market circulation stock is extremely large, and the short-term supply and demand gap cannot withstand the selling pressure brought by macro monetary policies. It can only support long-term prices and cannot prevent short-term sharp declines.
Silver’s high speculative attribute breaks through and experiences a stampede like sharp drop

The fluctuation range of silver is usually 1.5-2 times that of gold, and the long positions are extremely crowded in the early stage; In the early stage, long positions gained substantial profits. After the price fell below the key support level, programmed stop loss, long kill, and long stampede were triggered, and concentrated selling amplified the decline; COMEX’s net long positions in silver speculation have rapidly fallen from historical highs, while ETFs continue to reduce their holdings, leading to negative feedback and a decline in fund outflows.

In June 2026, the overall market situation of domestic antimony ingots continued to weaken, with the price center continuously shifting downwards. The trading atmosphere in the market was quiet, and both domestic and foreign markets were running weakly. The industry as a whole was in a downward trend during the off-season, and there was a clear game of long and short in the market. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market continued to decline in June 2026, with an average market price of 149500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 123500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a cumulative decline of 17.39% throughout the month.

Supply side:
Strict total quantity control policies are implemented in domestic antimony mining, and environmental security checks are carried out on a regular basis. Local mining is restricted, and the release of primary antimony production capacity is limited, resulting in a long-term overall tight supply of antimony resources in China. However, there has been a significant change in the overseas raw material circulation pattern this month, with Thailand’s export volume of antimony raw materials to China sharply decreasing, and the previously high export volume falling sharply. The impact of the reduction in raw material supply is gradually lagging behind, but the country’s import volume of raw materials from Myanmar has not significantly declined, and the short-term raw material supply gap has not yet been fully reflected. At the same time, there has been a continuous increase in the inflow of antimony raw materials from Africa, which to some extent offsets the impact of tightening overseas supply. The overall supply of raw materials by domestic smelting enterprises is still acceptable, production has remained stable, and the market spot circulation supply is sufficient. Coupled with the market price continuously approaching the production cost line, the low-priced circulation of goods in the market has increased, highlighting the overall loose supply situation.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. June is the off-season for traditional consumption of antimony products, and the overall market consumption atmosphere is sluggish, with weak overall support for demand
Antimony oxide: The downstream market performance of traditional antimony oxide is weak, and the overall production of the flame retardant industry is insufficient. The price of bromine based flame retardants is low, and the industry orders are relatively few. The purchasing enthusiasm of end manufacturers is sluggish, and most of them purchase in small quantities according to demand. The overall stocking willingness is weak, and market transactions are very flat.
Photovoltaics: The photovoltaic field is an emerging demand growth point for antimony ingots, mainly used for photovoltaic glass production. In June, the demand in the photovoltaic field weakened synchronously, and the production pace of photovoltaic glass enterprises slowed down. The daily melting volume continued to decrease, and the overall pressure of the industry to reduce inventory was too high. Enterprises strictly controlled the amount of raw material procurement, and the purchasing intensity of antimony related raw materials continued to decline.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the off-season pattern of the industry has not yet ended, and the pace of downstream demand recovery is slow. Coupled with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, the price of antimony ingots still lacks strong upward momentum, and the market is likely to continue a weak and volatile trend at a low level. There is still room for slight downward price exploration. As the off-season gradually comes to an end, the operating rates of major downstream industries are expected to steadily rebound, and traditional consumer demand will gradually be released, driving the concentrated release of market demand procurement. In terms of supply, the lagging impact of overseas raw material reduction will gradually become prominent, and the later tightening of raw material sources will provide substantial support to the market. Overall, the antimony market is unlikely to change its weak pattern in the short term, with a focus on bottoming out and consolidation. When the demand side recovers substantially and overseas supply tightens, the antimony ingot market is expected to gradually stop falling and stabilize from late June to the third quarter, ushering in a trend of stabilization and recovery.

This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an average market price of 423750 yuan/ton on June 17th and 395620 yuan/ton as of June 24th, a decrease of 6.64%.

Since June 2026, Shanghai tin has experienced a sustained decline. On June 8th, the main contract of Shanghai tin fell 6.74%, closing at 398000 yuan/ton; On June 23rd, it fell again by 4.1%; On June 24th, it fell 3.64% and closed at 395250 yuan/ton. This round of decline is the result of multiple factors resonating in the same time window.
Macroscopic perspective
The macro level constitutes the main suppressive force. The non farm payroll data for May in the United States exceeded expectations and was strong. Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike sharply increased, and the US dollar index hit a 13 month high, putting overall pressure on US dollar denominated base metals. At the same time, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced two rounds of sharp declines, directly impacting the demand expectations for “computing power metals”, and the AI narrative that had previously supported the strengthening of tin prices was temporarily shaken.
Supply and demand side: intertwining long and short positions
On the supply side, tin concentrate imports increased by 17% month on month in May, breaking Myanmar’s expectations for resuming production. The continuous increase in processing fees indicates a easing of raw material shortages; However, LME tin inventory is only 8825 tons, and the previous futures inventory is 9286 tons, both at historically low levels, with extremely fragile supply elasticity, forming the core support at the bottom. The demand side is dragged down by the traditional off-season consumption, and downstream procurement is cautious.
Inventory end
Inventory is at a historically low level: LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange are both reducing inventory in the same direction, and global explicit tin inventory has fallen to a historically low level. At such a low inventory level, any supply side disturbance could trigger a rebound.
comprehensive analysis
All technical indicators are pointing towards the bearish direction, with the mean difference in the “negative expansion” stage. The acceleration of the decline is evident, and there is no signal of a stop to the decline yet. The focus below is on the integer level of 380000 yuan/ton and the support of 375000 yuan/ton (near the 120 day moving average). The negative divergence rate between the current price and the short-term moving average has exceeded 8%, and the degree of short-term oversold has intensified. However, there is no turning point in the moving average, and the rebound still needs to wait. In the medium term, extremely low inventory and rigid supply constraints will provide bottom support for tin prices, and it is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations.

The hydrogen peroxide market weakened in June, with prices continuously falling. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 676 yuan/ton, and on June 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 626 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.39%.

Reasons for the decline in the hydrogen peroxide market
Supply side: Since June, manufacturers have restarted their equipment after maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate has remained high. Further increasing the market commodity volume has led to increased pressure on the supply side. At the same time, new facilities are expected to be put into operation in Sichuan and other places, which has intensified the market’s wait-and-see and bearish sentiment,
On the demand side: June belongs to the traditional off-season for pulp and printing and dyeing, and paper mills purchase according to demand, without the space for high volume during the peak season; The stable release of demand for environmental water treatment only provides a basic support, and cannot drive the market to strengthen. The downstream performance of the two main players is not ideal. Caprolactam: the industry is experiencing heavy losses, with a low operating rate, and only maintaining essential procurement of raw materials. Epoxy propane: Production is also at a low level, with average purchasing sentiment, unable to provide strong support for the market.
Technical Prediction of Business Society’s Hydrogen Peroxide Spot Analysis: From the price trend chart of Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide, it can be seen that the key indicator is that on May 10th, the 10 day moving average of hydrogen peroxide crossed the 20 day moving average, and hydrogen peroxide showed a downward trend. Starting from June, the 10 day and 20 day moving averages of hydrogen peroxide have been infinitely close, with the difference continuously narrowing, indicating a slowdown in the decline. The spot market for hydrogen peroxide weakened in June, with prices continuing to bottom out. The price of hydrogen peroxide is expected to rise in early July.
Auxiliary indicators: In late June, the price of hydrogen peroxide was at a mid low level on the 10th, mid low level on the 20th, and low level on the 30th, indicating that in the long run, the hydrogen peroxide market has strong upward momentum.
In summary, in July, the domestic hydrogen peroxide fundamentals remained dominated by negative factors, with supply pressure doubling and terminal demand weakening. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market was at a low level in June, and there is room for further growth in the future. At the beginning of July, the overall market for hydrogen peroxide fluctuated widely, with a high probability of increase, and the expected price is between 600 yuan/ton and 700 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

As of June 23rd, the price of high-performance power grade lithium iron phosphate is 61000 yuan/ton. Currently, the price of lithium iron phosphate is declining narrowly, with a 0.5% decrease compared to the same period last week. The industry average operating rate remains above 85%, and top integrated enterprises maintain 95% -100% full production.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of the market, the supply of goods is highly concentrated in the top integrated large factories, and there are very few available spot goods for small and medium-sized traders. There is a clear price stratification in the market, and the price difference continues to widen. Energy storage special materials are priced at 57000-60000 yuan/ton, conventional power type materials are priced at 6020-65300 yuan/ton, and high-pressure solid high-end fast charging materials are priced at 70000 yuan/ton. The premium of high-end goods continues to rise.
Upstream: The short-term slight decline is only followed by the pullback of lithium carbonate. Currently, the spot price of lithium carbonate has fallen by nearly 4000 yuan/ton within the day. Downstream point price purchases have slightly increased, driving a slight downward adjustment of conventional power lithium iron, but the decline is limited. The cost of phosphorus and sulfur has formed a strong bottom support, and there is no basis for a deep decline.
In terms of demand, the current market has formed a high prosperity pattern of new energy vehicles and energy storage dual wheel drive, with strong support for demand. The downstream market has obvious characteristics of “increasing demand and locking in orders”. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China remains above 60%, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the power battery installation structure has exceeded 81%. In May, the domestic export of new energy vehicles was 446000, a year-on-year increase of 110.4%. The demand for low-priced lithium iron models in overseas ASEAN and European markets continues to increase, and the production schedule of top battery factories steadily increased in June. Commercial vehicles, heavy-duty trucks, and hybrid models continue to switch to the iron lithium route, with stable growth. In the first quarter of 2026, domestic energy storage lithium battery shipments surged by 139% year-on-year. Large scale energy storage on the grid side, industrial and commercial energy storage, overseas household storage, and AI data center backup batteries almost all use lithium iron phosphate. Centralized bidding for energy storage at home and abroad has been implemented, and energy storage material orders have increased by nearly 50% year-on-year, becoming the core increment driving iron lithium demand.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the short-term supply margin of upstream lithium carbonate has improved, and lithium salt prices may continue to experience a slight correction, which will slightly drag down the spot price of lithium iron. In mid to late July, some new low-end production capacity will gradually climb, and the supply of conventional energy storage materials will increase slightly. The cost support of lithium iron phosphate is insufficient, and it is expected that lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend in the short term.

Recently, the domestic market for 85% industrial grade formic acid has maintained a weak and volatile downward trend. As of June 22, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.45% compared to last week.
Market fundamentals: weak supply and demand sides, no positive support
Demand side: Traditional off-season consumption, weak follow-up on essential needs
At present, the downstream of formic acid has entered the traditional consumption off-season, and the operating rates of mainstream downstream application industries such as leather, medicine, pesticides, rubber, etc. have generally remained low. The finished product inventory of downstream factories is high, and the procurement mode is mainly based on small orders for urgent needs replenishment. The willingness to stock up in large quantities is extremely low. Even if the upstream shipment situation shows a slight month on month improvement after the price drop, it is only sporadic replenishment stimulated by low prices, and it is not a true rebound in terminal demand, which cannot fundamentally improve the weak market pattern. The weak demand side continues to suppress the upward space of formic acid prices.
Supply side: High inventory levels combined with delayed maintenance, resulting in high market supply pressure
On the one hand, at present, the overall inventory of the domestic formic acid industry remains above the median level. Under the normal operation of the equipment in the early stage, the supply of goods continues to accumulate, and the speed of inventory turnover from manufacturers is slow. The supply of spot goods is sufficient, and there is no confidence in upstream prices; On the other hand, the expected equipment maintenance and resumption plan in the industry is likely to be delayed, and the expectation of reduced market supply is dashed, further increasing the pressure on on-site spot supply.
Market forecast: formic acid prices still have downward potential