1、 Trend analysis

 

Nickel prices rose slightly on the 14th, with the spot price of 134533.33 yuan / ton, up 1.09% from the previous trading day, 4.99% from the beginning of the year, and 18.76% from the same period last year, according to nickel price monitoring of business association.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Recently, nickel price fluctuated widely. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in China and Europe is bright, the demand is still good, the performance of refined nickel is strong, and there is still strong support below. However, due to the interference of epidemic situation, the uncertainty increases. London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel stocks reported 249432 metric tons on the 13th, 234 metric tons higher than the previous trading day.

 

Future forecast: nickel is supported by the new energy industry, combined with the impact of tight spot inventory, while the demand for stainless steel is likely to decline near the Spring Festival, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is expected to weaken. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the near future.

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1、 Price trend

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the data of the business club’s block list, in 2020, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price mainly fluctuated up and down. In April, there was a sharp jump and then a sharp drop, with a short-term rise and fall of more than 80%. The price at the beginning of 2020 is 6698 yuan / ton, and that at the end of 2020 is 7209 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 7.62%. In 2020, the annual low price is 5185 yuan / ton on April 2, and the annual high price is 9446 yuan / ton on April 12 and 13, with a monthly amplitude of 82.18%.

 

2、 Monthly analysis

 

1. In February, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced two rounds of shocks, and the market was slightly pessimistic. It is expected that the future market is not ideal.

 

In March, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced a rapid decline trend after two small rises, with 6350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the monthly low price was 5378 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 15.31%; the monthly high price was 6663 yuan / ton from March 6 to March 9, with a monthly amplitude of 19.29%. Affected by the international crude oil market game, the crude oil market has repeatedly been low. As the production and inventory of propylene were low before, the decline was not significant in the early stage, and the follow-up trend was also obvious in the later stage. At the beginning of April, more propylene enterprises may start production and increase production. And the lower butanol and octanol market down significantly, although isopropanol is still rising gratifying, PP futures also have a callback, can still be a lonely tree difficult to support, it is expected that there will continue to be a downward trend in the future.

 

In April, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced a huge upward and downward trend, and then fluctuated and stabilized, with 5239 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 5932 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.22%; the monthly low price appeared on April 2, with 5185 yuan / ton, and the monthly high price appeared on April 12 and 13, with 9446 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 82.18%. The international crude oil market price is generally low, but affected by the event, it may rise in the near future, so it has little impact on propylene. In April, the melt blown cloth rose sharply, which affected the raw material propylene market, which has been stable. The downstream market is relatively flat, and the rising market of isopropanol has also calmed down. On the whole, it has a slight positive impact, but the impact is limited. In addition, the May Day just needs to be prepared, and it is expected that it will go up slightly and then stabilize in the future.

 

In May, the price of domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated and went up, then fell back, and rose slightly at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the monthly low price was 5936 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, the monthly high price was 6595 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 11.09%; the monthly high price was 6979 yuan / ton from May 21 to 23, with a monthly amplitude of 17.57%. The international crude oil market price continues to rise, which has a positive effect on propylene. Most downstream prices have risen, but the pressure of raw materials still exists. Some downstream products adopt the way of reducing production and stopping production, and the operating rate is declining. They just need to purchase, and the delivery and investment are cold. The manufacturers’ shipment inventory is gradually stable. It is expected that the future market may be slightly affected by crude oil.

 

In June, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced two and a half rounds of ups and downs, with 6643 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6845 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.04%; the monthly high price appeared on June 4, with 6906 yuan / ton, and the monthly low price appeared on June 13, with a monthly amplitude of 5.91%, with 6498 yuan / ton. Although the price of crude oil in the international crude oil market is slightly lower, the future market is still ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. The downstream prices have been rising and falling, but the operating rate is ideal, the trading is relatively active, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is relatively low, and the maintenance of some devices is stopped. It is expected that there are still signs of rising in the future.

 

In July, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced three rounds of ups and downs, with 6866 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6825 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 0.60%; the monthly high price appeared from July 9 to 11, with 6892 yuan / ton, and the monthly low price appeared on July 4 and 5, with 6636 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 3.86%. At present, propylene manufacturers have no inventory pressure, and the shipment is smooth. Although the price of crude oil has declined slightly, the overall downstream market is relatively ideal in the near future. Propylene market price has been rising continuously, although it has not reached the upper limit, but the purchasing enthusiasm has been slightly reduced. It is mainly just need to purchase, and the market atmosphere is general. It is expected that it will rise slightly again and then stabilize in the future.

 

In August, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price went up and broke through the original range, then fluctuated and stabilized, with 6848 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6940 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.34%; the monthly low price appeared on August 4, with 6826 yuan / ton, and the monthly high price appeared on August 10-13, with 7036 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 3.08%. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of propylene manufacturers, the crude oil price fluctuates slightly, the downstream polypropylene futures market rises continuously, the overall profit margin is good, and there are many positive factors, but the just need to purchase is the main, the overall market trading is stable, and it is expected that the propylene price may rise.

 

In September, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price showed a ladder like rise. At the beginning of the month, it rose significantly and then stabilized, with a slight downward shock. In the middle of the month, it rose rapidly again. In the second half of the month, the price was generally stable, with a slight upward trend at the end of the month. The price at the beginning of the month is the monthly low price, 6989 yuan / ton; the price at the end of the month is the monthly high price, 7503 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 7.35%. At present, propylene manufacturers do not have much inventory, crude oil prices are declining, but the downstream products are profitable, the operating rate is high, and there is a demand for replenishment before the festival, which has a certain support for propylene. The overall positive factors are more than negative factors. Now the propylene price is at the top position, and the upward trend is difficult. It is expected that the future market will be stable in the short term.

 

In October, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price was stable in the first half of the month and plummeted in the second half. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7503 yuan / ton, at the end of the month, the price was 6736 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 10.21%; at the end of the month, the price was 7530 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 10.54%. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is gradually increasing, the crude oil price is going down, the downstream supply is sufficient, and the external supply is entering. The market is a little bad, and the price has shown a large decline in the short term. It is expected that the future market will be affected by the detailed inventory, or stabilize after a small decline.

 

In November, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fluctuated steadily in the first half of the year, and rose sharply in the second half. At the beginning of the month, the monthly price was 6737 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the monthly price was 7739 yuan / ton. The monthly average price rose by more than 1000 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 14.87%. At present, propylene manufacturers have less inventory, the crude oil price has been up and down, the downstream market is better, and the increase is more obvious. However, the market starts to stabilize at the end of the month, and the upward pressure is greater in the later period. It is expected that it will be stable for a short time in the future.

 

In December, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly in the first ten days, fell slightly in the middle of the year, then stabilized, and fell in a straight line in the last ten days. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7712 yuan / ton, at the end of the month, the price was 7209 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 6.52%; on December 8 and 9, the price was 8191 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 11.99%. Propylene inventory is increasing, crude oil price is rising slightly, and the downstream market is empty more than much. The overall situation is slightly depressed, mainly for the purchase of just need. It is expected that there is still room for further downward trend in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society, in 2020, except for the huge fluctuation caused by polypropylene in April, the rest of the propylene market is mainly stable up and down within a certain range. At the present stage, the crude oil is favorable and the downstream market is general, but the operating rate can still be affected. It is expected that the price will be stable in the short term, and the possibility of a slight rise can not be ruled out.

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According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite was stable as a whole this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 1683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1683.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, which was stable as a whole.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

After new year’s day, the overall performance of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market was stable. In December, the price of upstream raw materials was weak and stabilized, and the cost of raw materials stopped falling and stabilized. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1550-1750 yuan / ton, most of which are concentrated in 1600-1700 yuan / ton. Enterprise production is stable, mainly to complete the old customer orders, new orders increase is limited. (the above prices are quoted by domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises not quoted are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

 

This week, the domestic soda price was stable as a whole, and the sulfur price fell by 1.97%. Overall, the raw material cost of sodium pyrosulfite was weak and stabilized, and the future market price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to fall with limited space.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business analysts believe that the overall cost of raw materials tends to be stable, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will be stable in the short term.

Melamine

1、 Price trend

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of steam coal will continue to rise in early 2021. On January 1, the average market price of steam coal was 818.75 yuan / ton, and on January 10, the average market price of steam coal was 878.75 yuan / ton, up 7.33%. Since the fourth quarter, the price of steam coal has continued to rise, from the average market price of 631 yuan / ton in early December to 878.75 yuan / ton on January 10, with an increase rate of 39.26%, which can be described as a “good start” in 2021.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

In terms of origin, the tight supply in the fourth quarter of 2020 will be affected by environmental protection policies, especially by the reduction of coal production in Inner Mongolia. As of November 2020, the output of raw coal in Inner Mongolia is 889 million tons, 5.9% lower than that in the same period of the previous year. At present, there is not much coal in the main producing areas, so the coal price keeps rising. The output of Shaanxi Province is still low.

 

Downstream power plants: frequent cold air attacks, the temperature in many parts of the country “diving”. The year-on-year growth of coastal power plants has been around 18%, and the year-on-year growth of daily consumption data on January 7 has reached 30%. Although the inventory increased for three consecutive days under the influence of import increment, with the new high of daily consumption, the inventory went down again. At the same time, the total available days fell below 10 days. At present, the main stream price of 5500 kcal steam coal is 870-890 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of 5000 kcal steam coal is 770-810 yuan / ton.

 

Macro: according to Argus, in the past two months, the number of coal exports from Australia’s Newcastle port to China has dropped sharply, with only 430000 tons in November and zero in December. According to the shipment data compiled by Argus, in December 2020, Newcastle port exported 14.4 million tons of coal, up 26.87% from 11.35 million tons in November, but down 7% from 15.48 million tons in the same period of last year. From January to December 2020, Newcastle port exported 160 million tons of coal, down 3.4% from 166 million tons in the same period of last year.

 

Business analysts believe: the major coal enterprises promise to speed up coal production, but in the Spring Festival, under the premise of safe production, the incremental supply of producing areas will not be very optimistic. At present, the daily coal consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces is far more than that of the same period in previous years. Under the high consumption, the number of days available for inventory decreases rapidly, and the number of days available for inventory of some power plants drops below the warning line. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price may maintain a strong trend, and the trend may narrow slightly, depending on the downstream market demand.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

1、 Price trend

 

Bacillus thuringiensis

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on January 8, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 13933 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week and the same as that at the beginning of the month, down 9.13% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The salicylic acid market is stable this week. After the new year’s day, the price of salicylic acid has not been adjusted, but the downstream demand has increased, the purchase intention is obvious before the Spring Festival, the attitude of the industry is positive, the delivery is free of pressure, and the offer is firm. According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of January 8, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial enterprises were mostly in the range of 12000-15000 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. The quotations of pharmaceutical grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 23000-25500 yuan / ton, and the quotations of sublimation grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton. The actual transactions were mainly through negotiation.

 

Raw material phenol, 2020 is an extraordinary year. After the festival, all parts of the country stopped production and logistics transportation was blocked. Phenol market also experienced an unusual period in this year. In the first half of the year, it showed a deep “V” trend. Although it hit a new low in the first half of the year, it recovered its decline at the end of June, which was the highest in the year. In the second half of the year, we went through hardships and difficulties, but failed to break through the strange circle. According to the monitoring data of the business community, phenol (national market) was offered at 7487 yuan / ton on January 1, 2020, and then it was just around the spring festival that the market smoothly transited. After the festival, the domestic epidemic uncertainty continued to increase, and the market entered a rapid downward trend. Like most products in the industrial chain, phenol (national market) was offered at 4900 yuan / ton on April 3, Among them, the East China market is as low as 4500 yuan / ton (the lowest in ten years according to the monitoring of business community). In the second quarter, the market continued to release favorable information, and the market rebounded quickly. As of June 10, phenol (national market) was offered at 7925 yuan / ton, the highest in the year. In the second half of the year, the phenol market went through a very difficult period. First of all, it experienced a long downturn. In November, it was supported by downstream bisphenol A, which improved slightly. However, compared with other products coming out of the “high light moment” in the industrial chain, phenol made only a few upward breakthroughs in the fourth quarter, and finally continued to cross the year in a depressed state.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 1st week of 2021 (1.4-1.8), there were 27 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were propylene glycol (10.29%), ethylene (5.98%) and propane (5.47%). There were 32 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were acetone (- 13.28%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 10.78%) and isopropanol (- 8.47%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.34%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that: after new year’s day, the price of salicylic acid has not been adjusted for the time being. At present, the downstream demand is increasing, the purchase intention is obvious before the Spring Festival, the salicylic acid manufacturers have no pressure to ship, the mentality is positive, the offer is firm, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

1、 Price trend

 

EDTA

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on January 1, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2116 yuan / ton, and on January 8, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2083.33 yuan / ton, down by 1.58%.

 

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on January 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2440 yuan / ton, and on January 8, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2440 yuan / ton, which remained stable this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of map declined slightly in the first week of January. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Anhui Province is 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and the start-up is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of the factory price of ammonium powder is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton, and 58% of the factory price of ammonium powder is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province is stable and small. 55% ammonium powder is priced at about 2000 yuan per ton, and the start-up is stable. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong Province is 2100-2150 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton.

 

Diammonium phosphate remained stable in the first week of January. The main stream price of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Gansu is 2450 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 2650-2800 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Guizhou is 2750 yuan / ton. The first arrival price of 64% diammonium in Heilongjiang Province is about 2550-2780 yuan / ton.

 

In January 2021, after the new year’s day, the market quotation of phosphate rock in Guizhou and other mainstream areas was increased by 10-20 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price of the market was close to the high end. The price increase was mainly due to the support of demand. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stock increased, the orders increased, and the mine shipment was improved compared with the previous period. At present, the domestic phosphate rock market is in gas supply With the improvement of the atmosphere, the timely follow-up of downstream demand, the increase of new single purchase volume, and the boost of the confidence of the phosphate rock industry, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the phosphorus ore market will be mainly stable and strong in the short term.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Analysts of ammonium phosphate of business news agency believe that the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is stable at present, but Duowei just needs to purchase, and the market trading enthusiasm is not high. Most monoammonium phosphate enterprises mainly supply early orders, and some enterprise prices fall slightly. Overall, the market is still relatively stable, and it is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate may be weak and stable in the short term. The price of DAP is stable this week, and the supply of DAP is still tight. The industry has a strong wait-and-see mentality. However, the raw materials have risen recently, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the trend of DAP will continue to be stable, and there is a rising expectation.

povidone Iodine

Price trend of mixed xylene in 2020

 

In 2020, the price of mixed xylene will fall precipitously, then fluctuate in a weak position, and rise slightly at the end of the year. On January 1, 2020, the average price of mixed xylene was 5570 yuan / ton, and on December 31, 2020, the average price of mixed xylene was 3954 yuan / ton, which decreased by 1616 yuan / ton or 29.01% compared with that in 2020 at the beginning of the year

 

In 2019, the lowest average price of mixed xylene appeared on January 3, with the price of 4878.57 yuan / ton; in 2020, the lowest price of mixed xylene appeared on April 7, with the price of 3070 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1808.57 yuan / ton or 37.07% compared with that in 19 years. In 2019, the highest price of mixed xylene is 6910 yuan / ton from September 23 to September 29; in 2020, the highest price is 5720 yuan / ton from January 13, a decrease of 1190 yuan / ton or 17.22% compared with that in 19 years. In 2020, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 2650 yuan / ton, and in 2019, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 2031.43 yuan / ton.

 

Under the influence of the domestic epidemic, the price is almost cut off

 

The trend of mixed xylene and toluene is basically the same in 20202. In the early spring festival, affected by the weak seasonal demand and the coming of the Spring Festival, the pre year stock price of mixed xylene rose to the highest point in the year, and then began to soften slightly to the end of January.

 

After the festival, the price of mixed xylene fell precipitously, and the price was almost cut by the waist. With the outbreak of the domestic epidemic, the national transportation has stagnated, the consumption of gasoline has fallen precipitously, the storage of refined oil has accumulated, and the demand for blending xylene has shrunk seriously. In addition, the process of domestic enterprises’ resumption of work and production is slow, and the starting load of mixed xylene downstream drops to the freezing point, so the overall demand is weak.

 

Sodium Molybdate

The price war in oil producing countries has led to a deep drop in costs

 

At first, affected by the domestic epidemic, Brent crude oil fell to US $56.62/barrel and WTI crude oil fell to US $51.56/barrel for fear of China’s fuel demand decline and economic depression. With China’s epidemic under control and OPEC + production cut, oil prices experienced a brief rebound. However, the good news did not last long. In March, OPEC + production reduction agreement negotiations broke down, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producing countries launched price wars, and crude oil fell sharply. In the first quarter of 2020, Brent oil prices fell by more than 70%, while WTI oil prices fell by nearly 60%.

 

Brent oil price

WTI oil price

 

The deep drop of cost caused the avalanche of domestic chemical product market, and the market of mixed xylene entered the trough.

 

Weak demand and price deadlock

 

With the gradual improvement of China’s epidemic situation, the oil price rebounded, and the downstream also recovered to a certain extent; in addition, the foreign mixed xylene market was less affected by the epidemic situation, and the mixed xylene price in Europe and America was higher than that in Asia, which led to the opening of Asia us arbitrage window. Domestic enterprises returned to work and production, the demand for gasoline increased greatly, and the early inventory accumulation was not much, so the mixed xylene rebounded in April.

 

But the good times are not long. The outbreak of epidemic situation in foreign countries has dealt a great blow to the economy of many countries. The price war between oil producing countries has worsened the oil price, caused a sharp drop in crude oil, and seriously reduced the demand for energy and chemical products. The price of mixed xylene in Europe and the United States dropped sharply. At this time, the domestic economy gradually recovered, the price of mixed xylene rose, the internal and external market surplus, the import volume of mixed xylene increased gradually, the inventory accumulated, and the market supply pressure increased day by day. Downstream demand is weak, inventory pressure is prominent, mixed xylene prices in mid April and early April entered a stalemate after rebounding from the bottom.

 

Cost side: after April, with OPEC + reaching a large-scale production reduction agreement, the superposed epidemic situation has improved, the demand for crude oil has increased, and the international oil price has begun to rise. The period from August to October is relatively stable. Supply side: favorable balance of internal and external market, increased import volume of mixed xylene, high inventory, difficult to consume. Demand side: the demand for downstream oil transfer, TDI, PX, etc. continued to be low, while the demand for downstream goods remained rigid, and the demand for mixed xylene continued to be insufficient. The downstream demand of “Jinjiu Yinshi” mixed xylene also showed no signs of improvement.

 

Brent oil price

 

WTI oil price

 

Unexpected slight increase at the end of the year:

 

Compared with previous years, in November, due to seasonal factors, mixed xylene entered the traditional off-season. However, in November 2020, there will be a major breakthrough in foreign new vaccines, the dust of the US general election will be settled, and OPEC + will continue to push forward the production reduction agreement. The oil price will open an upward channel. From November to December, Brent will increase by more than 35%, and WTI will increase by more than 30%. Driven by the sharp rebound in oil prices, chemicals have significantly rebounded, and mixed xylene has a small increase following the big stream.

 

Brent oil price

 

WTI oil price

 

In terms of refined oil, the overall price of gasoline showed a fluctuating upward trend after April, and rose to the highest point since late March on December 21, with the price at 5773.17 yuan / ton.

 

Gasoline price

 

In December, due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the consumption of benzene in downstream solvents decreased significantly; although the price of refined oil rose, the demand for gasoline blending was general, and the demand side of downstream Px, PTA and ox remained weak, and the mixed xylene ended in a weak decline.

 

Outlook for 2021:

 

In 2021, the petrochemical industry will recover as a whole, and the chemical industry will recover as a whole. However, the mixed xylene market is expected to be weak in the early 2021, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still the main factor restricting the price. In addition, the bad news of the epidemic could not be eliminated in the short term, and the trend of mixed xylene in 2021 was under pressure. Mixed xylene analysts of business news agency believe that the trend of mixed xylene in 2021 needs attention: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil wells and the inventory data of crude oil and refined oil. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery progress of downstream industrial chain, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, US dollar index and stock market linkage.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

Toluene price trend in 2020

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

In 2020, the price of toluene will fall in a cliff like manner, and then fluctuate in a weak position, with a slight increase at the end of the year. On January 1, 2020, the average price of toluene was 5470 yuan / ton, and on December 31, 2020, the average price of toluene was 3730 yuan / ton, which was 1740 yuan / ton lower than that of 2020, a decrease of 31.81%

 

In 2019, the lowest average price of toluene appeared on January 2, with a price of 4450 yuan / ton; in 2020, the lowest price of toluene appeared from April 3 to April 6, with a price of 3050 yuan / ton, which was 1400 yuan / ton lower than that in 19 years, with a decrease of 31.46%. In 2019, the highest price of toluene is 6610 yuan / ton on September 25; in 2020, the highest price is 5610 yuan / ton on January 10-13, which is a decrease of 1000 yuan / ton or 15.13% compared with that in 19 years. In 2020, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 2560 yuan / ton, and in 2019, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 2160 yuan / ton.

 

Precipice style decline, price nearly “cut back”:

 

From the beginning of January to the beginning of April in 2020, the price of toluene will drop precipitously, and the price will be almost cut off.

 

At the beginning of the Spring Festival, due to the weak seasonal demand and the coming of the Spring Festival, the stock price of toluene before the year rose to the highest point in the year, and then began to soften slightly to the end of January.

 

After the festival, the price of toluene fell precipitously, and the price was almost cut off. With the outbreak of the domestic epidemic, the national transportation has stagnated, the consumption of gasoline has fallen precipitously, the storage of refined oil has accumulated, and the demand for toluene oil transfer has seriously shrunk. In addition, the process of domestic enterprises returning to work and production is slow, and the starting load of toluene downstream has dropped to the freezing point, so the overall demand is weak. At this time, a number of toluene refineries shut down or reduced load operation, supply pressure gradually reduced. During the Spring Festival, the amount of toluene arriving in Hong Kong is small, and the enterprise inventory itself is at a low level before the Spring Festival, so the increase of toluene inventory is small.

 

In terms of crude oil, initially affected by the domestic epidemic, Brent crude oil fell to US $56.62/barrel and WTI crude oil fell to US $51.56/barrel due to concerns about the decline of China’s fuel demand and economic repression. With China’s epidemic under control and OPEC + production cut, oil prices experienced a brief rebound. However, the good news did not last long. In March, OPEC + production reduction agreement negotiations broke down, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producing countries launched price wars, and crude oil fell sharply. In the first quarter of 2020, Brent oil prices fell by more than 70%, while WTI oil prices fell by nearly 60%.

 

Brent oil price

 

WTI oil price

 

In terms of refined oil, affected by the epidemic, transportation is limited, and gasoline and diesel stocks have accumulated. Combined with the impact of low crude oil prices, gasoline fell by more than 25% from January to March, while diesel fell by more than 20%. The price of toluene dropped from 5510 yuan / ton at the end of January to 3050 yuan / ton.

 

Gasoline price:

 

Diesel price

 

Weak demand and price deadlock

 

With the gradual improvement of China’s epidemic situation, the oil price rebounded, and the downstream also recovered to a certain extent; in addition, the foreign toluene market was less affected by the epidemic situation, and the toluene price in Europe and America was higher than that in Asia, which led to the opening of Asia US arbitrage window. Domestic enterprises returned to work and production, gasoline demand has increased greatly, coupled with the lack of early inventory accumulation, toluene ushered in a wave of rebound in April.

 

But the good times are not long. The outbreak of epidemic situation in foreign countries has dealt a great blow to the economy of many countries. The price war between oil producing countries has worsened the oil price, caused a sharp drop in crude oil, and seriously reduced the demand for energy and chemical products. The price of toluene in Europe and the United States dropped sharply. At this time, the domestic economy gradually recovered, the price of toluene rebounded, the internal and external market surplus, the import volume of toluene gradually increased, the inventory accumulated, and the market supply pressure increased day by day. The downstream demand is weak, inventory pressure is prominent, and the price of toluene has entered a stalemate stage in mid April and early April after rebounding from bottom hunting.

 

Cost side: after April, with OPEC + reaching a large-scale production reduction agreement, the superposed epidemic situation has improved, the demand for crude oil has increased, and the international oil price has begun to rise. The period from August to October is relatively stable. Supply side: the internal and external market surplus, toluene imports increased, inventory high difficult to consume. Demand side: the demand for downstream oil transfer, TDI, PX, etc. continued to be low, while the demand for downstream goods remained rigid, and the demand for toluene continued to be insufficient. There is no sign of improvement in the downstream demand of toluene during the “golden nine silver ten” period.

 

Brent oil price

 

WTI oil price

 

Unexpected slight increase at the end of the year:

 

Compared with previous years, November to December is the traditional off-season. In November, due to seasonal factors, the demand for refined oil weakened, which led to the weakening of toluene demand. However, in November 2020, driven by the sharp rebound of oil prices, chemicals have a significant rebound, and toluene has a slight rise following the trend.

 

In terms of crude oil, there was a major breakthrough in foreign new vaccines in early November. The dust of the US election was settled. In addition, OPEC + continued to push forward the production reduction agreement, and oil prices opened an upward channel. From November to December, Brent rose by more than 35% and WTI rose by more than 30%.

 

Brent oil price

 

WTI oil price

 

In terms of refined oil, the overall price of gasoline showed a fluctuating upward trend after April, and rose to the highest point since late March on December 21, with the price at 5773.17 yuan / ton.

 

Gasoline price

 

In December, due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the consumption of benzene in downstream solvents decreased significantly; although the price of refined oil rose, the demand for gasoline blending was general, and the downstream PX and TDI start load were normal, so the demand side remained weak, and toluene ended with a weak decline.

 

Outlook for 2021:

 

In 2021, the petrochemical industry will recover as a whole, and the chemical industry will recover as a whole. However, the toluene market is expected to remain weak in the early 2021, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still the main factor restricting the price. In addition, the bad news of the epidemic cannot be eliminated in the short term, and the trend of toluene in 2021 will be under pressure. Toluene analysts of business news agency believe that the trend of toluene in 2021 needs attention: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil wells and the inventory data of crude oil and refined oil. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery progress of downstream industrial chain, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, US dollar index and stock market linkage.

Benzalkonium chloride

Price trend of pure benzene in 2020

 

According to the data monitoring of the business community, pure benzene will rise after a cliff like decline in 2020. On January 1, the price of domestic pure benzene was 5600-5950 yuan / ton (average price: 5880 yuan / ton). On December 31, the price of domestic pure benzene was 3920-4400 yuan / ton (average price: 4204 yuan / ton). This year, the price of pure benzene dropped 1676 yuan / ton, or 28.5%.

 

In 2020, the lowest average price of pure benzene is 2420 yuan / ton from April 3 to April 4; in 2019, the lowest average price of pure benzene is 4200 yuan / ton from April 3 to April 8, which is 1780 yuan / ton lower than that in 19 years, with a decrease of 42.4%. In 2020, the highest average price of pure benzene is 5880 yuan / ton on January 1; in 2019, the highest average price is 5900 yuan / ton from December 24 to December 26, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that in 19 years, with a decrease of 0.34%. In 2020, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 3460 yuan / ton, and in 2019, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 1700 yuan / ton.

 

Melamine

Precipice decline stage:

 

From the beginning of January to the beginning of April in 2020, the overall price shows a cliff like downward trend. On January 1, the price of pure benzene reached the highest point of the whole year – 5880 yuan / ton, then slightly weakened to the end of January, and continued to decline after the year. On April 3, it reached the lowest point of the whole year – 2420 yuan / ton, a decrease of 58.84%.

 

With the outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the process of domestic enterprises returning to work and production was slow, and the downstream start-up load was low; coupled with the limited logistics, it was difficult to improve the demand, and the pure benzene entered the decline stage. In terms of crude oil, affected by the epidemic in March, countries introduced measures to restrict travel, resulting in a sharp drop in demand for crude oil; in addition, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producing countries launched price wars, resulting in a sharp drop in crude oil. Brent oil prices fell nearly 65% in March, while WTI oil prices fell more than 45%. The price of pure benzene has fallen to 2420 yuan / ton, the lowest point of the whole year in early April. The sharp drop of crude oil led to the decline of pure benzene production cost, and the starting load of pure benzene enterprises was high. However, the recovery of downstream demand is slow, market supply exceeds demand, and enterprises accumulate inventory. The port inventory of pure benzene was about 80000 tons in early January and 150000 tons in early April.

 

Brent oil price

 

WTI oil price

The first shock rising stage:

 

From the beginning of April to the first ten days of June in 2020, the overall trend is fluctuating, with an increase of over 50%.

With OPEC + reaching a large-scale production reduction agreement, the superposed epidemic situation has improved, the demand for crude oil has increased, and the international oil price has begun to rise. Brent oil price rose by more than 130% in the second quarter, WTI oil price rebounded by more than 60%, and the rising cost supported the rise of pure benzene. In addition, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has improved, the blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, the resumption of work and production of factories has been accelerated, and the price of pure benzene has risen, which has pushed the domestic price higher. Since the end of March, the import volume of pure benzene has increased rapidly, and the port inventory has accumulated substantially, from about 100000 tons in the end of March to about 220000 tons in the first ten days of June.

 

Brent oil price

 

WTI oil price

 

Shock and fall stage:

 

From the middle of June to the end of July, the overall trend was volatile.

 

With the first resumption of production in China, foreign pure benzene flows into China for arbitrage, and the import volume of pure benzene is large, while the export volume is greatly reduced. The port inventory of pure benzene gradually accumulated, but the terminal demand was relatively limited, and the high inventory was difficult to consume, which was the main reason why the price of pure benzene was difficult to rise and then fell. From mid June to the end of July, the port inventory of pure benzene increased from about 220000 tons to nearly 270000 tons.

 

In the stage of narrow range fluctuation, there are three stages

 

Since the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was adjusted to 3400-3450 yuan / ton on August 5 (down to 3300 yuan / ton on August 14), the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene continued to stabilize until October 8.

 

In this stage, the pure benzene market is relatively stalemate, high inventory is difficult to consume in the short term, and the downstream demand support is insufficient, so it is difficult for pure benzene to continue to rise. In the third quarter, the downstream production capacity of pure benzene was increased, and the export pressure of pure benzene was reduced, which supported the price. In terms of crude oil, although the epidemic situation in foreign countries is tightening, the economy continues to recover, OPEC + production reduction continues to advance, and the oil price has entered a relatively stable stage. From mid June to the end of October, oil prices fluctuated mainly in a narrow range. Compared with March to April, the international oil price increased significantly, which also supported the price of pure benzene. In this stage, the port inventory of pure benzene has little change.

 

The second shock rising stage:

 

From the middle of October, pure benzene began to rise for the second time. By December 31, the price was 4204 yuan / ton, up 28.17%. The highest price is 4576 yuan / ton from December 8 to 9.

 

In the first half of the period, the profit of styrene production and marketing surged sharply. In addition, the long-term good performance of the downstream and the strength of the spot market gave the capital confidence, and the control of capital entering the market rose, which led to the sharp rise of the spot price. The strong rise of styrene price led to the rise of pure benzene. In the later stage, with the environmental protection inspection and low temperature off-season, the demand of styrene downstream gradually weakened from north to south. Styrene manufacturers actively reduced prices and promoted sales, and the northern supply impacted and suppressed the East China market. The price of styrene softened, and the profit taking of pure benzene decreased slightly; with the increase of external buying, the demand of pure benzene in Europe and America increased, and the price rose, which led to the opening of arbitrage window in Asia and the United States, and the pure benzene in Asia rose to a high level, boosting the recovery of domestic market. In terms of crude oil, although the epidemic situation continues to affect the oil market, the new crown vaccine has made a major breakthrough. The oil price has opened an upward channel, and the decision of OPEC + to gradually increase the supply of crude oil in early December has also released a positive signal to the oil market. Brent and WTI rose by more than 20% in this stage. In this stage, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased by about 13000 tons.

 

styrene

Brent oil price

 

WTI oil price

 

Outlook for 2021:

 

Crude oil: OPEC + will increase the daily output of crude oil by 500000 barrels from January 1, 2021. The daily output of Libya’s crude oil will recover rapidly, and the signs of increased supply have brought pressure to the market. In winter, the epidemic situation may rebound, and the impact of the epidemic is difficult to subside in the short term. It is estimated that the demand of crude oil market will still be under pressure in 2021. However, with the launch of vaccine, the crude oil market will be benefited to some extent, and the oil price will rise as a whole. In addition, geopolitical risks in the Middle East exist for a long time. Overall, the crude oil demand will gradually recover in 2021, and the oil price will probably continue to rise, but the uncertainty of demand and the risk of supply may limit the range of the rise. The uncertainty of crude oil market brings challenges to pure benzene market.

 

Downstream: as the vaccine is put into use, the negative impact of the epidemic will gradually weaken, the global economy will gradually recover, and the bulk market as a whole will improve. In 2021, the domestic styrene industry still has a huge capacity investment plan, with an additional capacity of 4.49 million tons / year, and the production time is concentrated in the first and fourth quarters. In 2021, the contradiction between supply and demand of styrene is still large, and the pressure of oversupply still exists. Next year, the price of styrene will be balanced by the operating rate of domestic enterprises, import volume, port inventory and the enthusiasm of downstream taking goods.

 

Pure benzene shows a recovery trend as a whole, and the downstream demand support of pure benzene is expected to strengthen, but the high inventory is difficult to consume in the short term, and the contradiction between supply and demand of pure benzene is still large in 2021. In the later period, the price trend of pure benzene can be seen from the price trend of crude oil, external pure benzene and downstream styrene.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

1、 Price trend

 

povidone Iodine

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly this week and then fell back, with 7305 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7293 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly decline of 0.16%; while the weekly high price was 7323 yuan / ton on Thursday, with a weekly decline of 0.41%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. On the 4th, the price was increased by about 100 yuan / ton. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, with only a few enterprises going up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Now, the market transaction is between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery.

 

On January 6, the crude oil price rose obviously, but on January 7, it still rose, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

 

This week, the spot price of PP fell after rising, with no rise or fall, and the weekly amplitude was 0.41%, which had little impact on propylene.

 

This week, acrylic acid market is stable, the impact on propylene is limited.

 

This week, the market of propylene oxide was stable after going up continuously, with a weekly increase of 1.05%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

 

Epichlorohydrin fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 1.33%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

 

This week, the domestic n-butanol price all the way down, with a weekly drop of 10.78%, which has a more obvious suppression effect on propylene.

 

Octanol market is also all the way down this week, with a weekly decline of 6.80%, which also has a negative effect on propylene.

 

Isopropanol market also fell all the way this week, with a weekly decline of 8.47%, which also had a negative impact on propylene.

 

In the middle of this week, phenol in East China fell significantly and then stabilized, with a weekly decline of 3.36% and a weekly amplitude of 3.51%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

 

This week, acetone in East China went down all the way, with a weekly drop of 13.28%, which has a significant suppression effect on propylene.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: Generally speaking, the current inventory is general, and the crude oil price has risen slightly, but I don’t know the strength of the future upward trend. The operation rate of the downstream market has risen slightly, and most of the negative ones are occupied. Therefore, it is expected that the recent propylene price will be mainly affected by the game between the crude oil market and the downstream trend.

Melamine