According to data from Shengyi Society’s spot trading platform, the domestic PP market fluctuated at a high level in late April, with prices of various product brands falling more and rising less. As of April 21st, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing offered by Shengyi Society is 9183.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% from the beginning of the month.

price trend
In terms of raw materials:
Currently, the market’s concerns about the production and transportation of Middle Eastern crude oil under the influence of geopolitical factors have eased, and the international oil price premium is rapidly shifting towards negotiations to ease expectations and resonate with negative fundamentals. The signals of US Iran peace talks continue to rise, with intermittent resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA has lowered its supply and demand expectations, while API inventories have surged. Under the combination of multiple factors, a pattern of weak crude oil has emerged, and the remote cost value of PP has fallen at a high level. In the early stage of propylene production, the centralized maintenance of enterprise equipment has been implemented, and the demand side has steadily received goods. Spot prices have risen to a high level, but the price center has recently rebounded. Although there are still not many shipments of propane at the port, overseas prices have been significantly lowered in the early stages, while domestic spot prices have remained strong in recent days. Overall, the prices of various PP raw materials have fluctuated, which has loosened the support for PP costs.
Supply side:
In mid April, there was a mutual occurrence of maintenance release and return of domestic PP enterprises, and the overall operating rate position was said to have rebounded. As of press time, the overall load of the domestic industry has risen to around 71%. The industry’s loss of production capacity has shrunk, and the current inventory level has rebounded to around 800000 tons, while imports to the port are at a low level. Overall, the supply side still has support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by the high mid-term spot prices, the overall trading atmosphere in the downstream market of the industry is cautious. Last month, oversold contracts and chasing orders from refineries were basically delivered, but the current transaction pace has slowed down and warehouse building operations have decreased. Buyers often use and take as you go, with scattered small orders being the main focus. Some terminal small and micro enterprises that have reduced production and stopped production due to high cost pressures have limited resumption of work, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and acquire goods. The overall demand side is in a wait-and-see situation, with performance falling short of market expectations and average support for PP.
future market forecast
In late April, the domestic PP market prices fell sharply from high levels. Fundamentally speaking, the industry’s load position has basically moved out of the historical low range, but the recovery of supply still requires time. The position of social inventory has rebounded, and port imports remain low. However, with a large production capacity base, the supply of goods can still meet the demand. In terms of futures prices, they have recently fallen, and the widening basis has dragged down spot prices. Business Society PP analysts believe that the current PP market is torn between long and short positions, with ambiguous guidance and insufficient market action in the future, and there may still be downward space.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have risen significantly this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 144000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.65% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 12.86%.
Nickel weekly fluctuation chart
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 6 times and risen 5 times in the past 12 weeks, with a strong rebound in nickel prices recently.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, the international macro is generally warm, but there are still hidden concerns: the US dollar index continues to decline for eight consecutive days, now at the 98 level, marking the longest continuous decline cycle since June 2020; Positive progress has been made in the US Iran negotiations, and market risk aversion has significantly cooled down; The US stock market continues to be strong, with the Nasdaq recording 11 consecutive gains and reaching a new historical high, and the S&P 500 index breaking through the 7000 point integer mark for the first time. Domestically, the GDP growth rate for the first quarter released today meets market expectations, which has boosted market confidence to a certain extent. However, the improvement in downstream demand is limited and has not formed a strong price drive.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in March was 37337 tons, an increase of 14.53% month on month and 1.83% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for April is 38830 tons, an increase of 4.00% month on month and 6.53% year-on-year. The pressure of rising supply side costs is significant, and Indonesia’s policy tightening has become the biggest variable. The country has successively introduced multiple industrial control policies, systematically pushing up the cost curve of the global nickel industry; At the same time, the prices of key upstream raw materials have significantly increased, and the supply of intermediate goods continues to be tight, further raising the production costs of the smelting process.
On the demand side: The overall performance of the demand side is weak, with only the improvement of profits in the stainless steel industry providing relatively stable support; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are stable, but the demand growth for ternary batteries is weak, and the industry is currently in the off-season of traditional consumption; Downstream enterprises generally adopt a cautious purchasing attitude, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory for essential needs, and the high inventory pattern continues to suppress the upward space of prices.
In summary, the tight supply of upstream intermediate goods and weak terminal demand coexist, and the serious imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain greatly limits the volatility elasticity of nickel prices. Macroscopically, the implementation of Indonesia’s new policies has brought about a rise in the bottom support of nickel mines, and the actual supply pressure combined with insufficient inventory digestion constraints is expected to lead to strong fluctuations in nickel prices.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen. On April 16th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 685 points, an increase of 18 points from the 11th, a decrease of 31.98% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 152.77% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13th, 2015.

Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all shown an upward trend. As of the 17th, the price of neodymium oxide was 845000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.68% this week; The price of neodymium metal is 1.05 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.0% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 835000 yuan/ton, with a 4.05% increase this week; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.045 million yuan/ton, with a price trend of 6.63% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 985000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.35% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 812500 yuan/ton, with a 2.20% increase this week.
Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, with core product prices continuing to rise, and the market atmosphere rapidly warming up. The core is the resonance of four major events: the sharp rise in concentrate costs triggering a full chain price adjustment, the depletion of spot inventory, the concentration of essential demand replenishment, and the tightening of supply expectations.
1、 Direct factor: Significant increase in concentrate prices
Baosteel Group and Northern Rare Earth have raised their concentrate prices to 38804 yuan/ton in the second quarter, an increase of 11970 yuan/ton month on month, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of price increases. After the pricing reform, the largest single quarter increase broke the expectation of “slow rise”, and traders and separation factories collectively held back on sales, resulting in a sharp decrease in spot circulation and an increase in the market price of light rare earths.
2、 Spot end: inventory bottoming out, no stock available for sale
The inventory of the entire industry chain is at a historical low, far below the 3-4 month safety line, and low-priced spot goods have basically disappeared. The orders for new energy vehicles and wind power have rebounded, and magnetic material factories have resumed work to replenish inventory. Coupled with overseas panic stocking, it is difficult to find a single item, which has pushed up the prices of rare earths in four markets.
3、 Supply side: rigid locking, expected to be tighter
Domestic quotas are strictly controlled, with a mining quota of 285000 tons by 2026. The growth rate of light rare earths has been suppressed to within 6%, the lowest in recent years, and the supply is inelastic. In addition, the sharp decline in imports from Myanmar has resulted in a month on month decrease of over 40% in port arrivals, insufficient replacement and supplementation of medium and heavy rare earths, and an expanding gap in light rare earths. As a result, the domestic market for light rare earths has risen.
4、 Demand side: Centralized release of new energy essential needs
The sales of new energy vehicles have increased, and the penetration rate of permanent magnet motors is over 95%, making it necessary to replenish the inventory in a centralized manner. Global new installed capacity has increased by 40%, with a surge in offshore megawatt wind turbines and orders scheduled for the second half of the year. Recently, European and American manufacturers have increased their stocking due to supply chain uncertainty, leading to a widening price difference between domestic and international markets and a surge in export orders.
In the short term, the rare earth market is prone to rise but difficult to fall, with a focus on maintaining high levels. With the gradual recovery of demand in downstream fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power installation, and industrial motors, coupled with the continuous tightening of rare earth industry control, the expectation of strategic storage, and the recovery of overseas high-end manufacturing demand, the supply and demand pattern of rare earths is expected to tighten again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.

According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8916 yuan/ton on April 9th, and 8541 yuan/ton on April 16th, a decrease of 4.21%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11933 yuan/ton on April 9th and 11650 yuan/ton on April 16th, a decrease of 2.37%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 9th was 10562 yuan/ton, and on April 16th it was 10400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%.
The recent continuous decline in international crude oil prices and insufficient support from PE production costs have further intensified the bearish sentiment in the market. Among them, LLDPE has the highest sensitivity to crude oil prices, so the weakening of the cost side has the greatest impact on it, and the decline is also the most significant.
The overall supply side is tight, and China is currently in the peak of annual spring inspections, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization and output. Due to the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation, there is a shortage of imports at ports, and inventory is showing a differentiated trend of upstream accumulation and social destocking.
The overall demand side is showing a weak trend during the off-season, with downstream product companies operating at low rates. The demand for agricultural film continues to decline with the end of spring plowing, and there is a shortage of new orders in areas such as packaging film and pipe materials. Under the pressure of high raw material prices, downstream enterprises’ profit margins have been compressed, and their purchasing intentions are cautious, mainly focusing on small orders for essential needs without centralized replenishment behavior, which has limited support for the market.
In the short term, the polyethylene market will maintain a volatile and weak trend, with supply side spring inspections and import disruptions forming certain support. However, the demand side is weak during the off-season, upstream enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the recent weak crude oil prices have led to loose cost support. It is difficult to have a clear directional breakthrough under the long short game.

1、 This week’s market review:
This week, the melamine market continued its downward trend. As of April 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society was reported at 9150.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.43% from the beginning of this week (9675.00 yuan/ton). The overall price was under pressure and fell during the week, with a daily increase or decrease of -3.43%. From the perspective of market performance, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. Coupled with supply side pressure, prices continue to weaken.
2、 Core driver analysis:
On the demand side: The downstream industries such as sheet metal and plastic have average operating rates, and the procurement of raw materials is mainly based on the replenishment of essential inventory, resulting in insufficient demand support.
Supply side: After the maintenance of some devices is completed, production will resume, and the market supply will increase. Coupled with inventory pressure, prices will be further suppressed.
Cost side: The fluctuation of upstream raw material urea prices is not significant, and the cost side support is limited, which has failed to effectively boost the price of melamine. As of April 15th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1875.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54% compared to the beginning of this month (1865.00 yuan/ton).
Future trend prediction:
The short-term price of melamine has fallen below the 10 day moving average, and the 10 day cycle has oversold, indicating a technical rebound demand. However, the 20- and 30 day cycles are still at high levels, and the market’s willingness to chase higher prices is insufficient, with limited room for rebound. If the price cannot quickly recover to 9475 yuan/ton (near the 10 day moving average), or will continue to decline, the lower support is at 9000 yuan/ton, and the strong support is at 8800 yuan/ton (near the 20 day moving average).
The medium-term trend is mainly characterized by high-level fluctuations, and the trend needs to be confirmed. The medium and long-term moving averages are still in a bullish position, and the upward trend has not been disrupted. There is still momentum for rebound in the medium-term. If the price stabilizes at the 20 day moving average after a correction, it will meet the buying conditions and is expected to restart the upward trend; If it effectively falls below the 30 day moving average (about 8600 yuan/ton), the trend will reverse and enter a downward channel.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (4.1-4.14), with an average market price of 375920 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 383270 yuan/ton as of April 14th, an increase of 1.96%.

According to the data from Shengyishe Spot News:
In the first half of April 2026, tin prices showed a fluctuating upward trend in the range of 366000 to 383000 yuan/ton. From a technical perspective, it presents a pattern of short-term strength and medium-term stability. Among them, the 10 day and 20 day moving averages formed a clear bullish structure, which became a key supporting factor driving the upward trend of tin prices.
From the specific performance analysis of the moving average pattern, from April 1st to 14th, the 10 day moving average of tin prices remained stable above the 20 day moving average, constructing a classic golden cross bullish pattern. On April 1st, the tin price was reported at 375920 yuan/ton, with both the 10 day and 20 day moving averages in the median range. Subsequently, the price continued to rise, with the 10 day moving average quickly surpassing the 20 day moving average and maintaining an upward divergent trend. This phenomenon fully reflects the dominance of short-term bullish forces, and the market’s bullish sentiment towards tin prices continues to heat up.
In terms of market performance, from April 7th to 14th, tin prices quickly rebounded after repeatedly touching the 10 day moving average. For example, on April 13th, tin prices fell to 371170 yuan/ton, briefly touching the median level of the 10 day moving average, and then rebounded to 378130 yuan/ton the next day, highlighting the strong support properties of the 10 day moving average. At the same time, the 20 day moving average has maintained a steady upward trend, gradually rising from the median range in early April to the high range. On April 14th, the tin price was reported at 383270 yuan/ton, successfully stabilizing in the high area of the 20 day moving average. This indicates that the medium-term trend continues to improve, and the moving average system plays a significant role in supporting and guiding the price.
However, in the first half of April, tin prices did not simply rise, but also showed a certain degree of volatility. On April 2nd and April 13th, tin prices experienced a single day decline of over 1.8%, corresponding to a slight narrowing of the 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average. However, this is a normal correction phenomenon in the upward trend and does not change the overall upward moving average arrangement structure.
The technical strength of tin prices in the first half of April was supported by both tight supply and demand balance and macroeconomic favorable factors, laying a solid foundation for the upward trend of tin prices.
supply side
Continuous restriction is the core supporting factor. The slow resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar and Indonesia’s strict control over illegal mining, as well as tightening export approvals, have resulted in extremely limited global tin ore supply growth. Although the import volume of tin ore in China increased significantly by 96.04% year-on-year in February 2026, it decreased by 3.69% month on month, and the increase in ore imports from Myanmar did not meet expectations. In addition, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters is at a low level, which limits the release of refined tin production and leads to a tight supply of goods in the market.

demand side
The outbreak of peak season has arrived. April, as the traditional peak season of “Golden Three and Silver Four”, accelerates the resumption of work and production in infrastructure and real estate, while the automotive and home appliance industries rush to make up for orders. At the same time, emerging demands such as AI computing power centers and photovoltaic installations have rapidly emerged, leading to a significant increase in downstream demand for tin solder and photovoltaic ribbon. Especially with the significant year-on-year increase in AI server shipments, and the much higher tin consumption per device compared to traditional equipment, it has become the core incremental driving force behind the rise in tin prices.
Macroscopic perspective
Continuously releasing positive signals. The US has reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, easing geopolitical risks, weakening the US dollar index, and overall commodity market sentiment has rebounded. In addition, although the market has delayed expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, inflation expectations remain high, providing valuation support for industrial metals, and funds continue to flow into scarce industrial metal sectors such as tin.
comprehensive analysis
Based on the comprehensive technical and news situation, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate strongly and shift their focus upwards in late April. In the short term, they are expected to hit the 400000 yuan/ton mark, but in the medium term, we need to be vigilant about the risk of a pullback caused by supply recovery. The bullish structure of the 10 day and 20 day moving averages has not been disrupted. The short-term support levels are 370000 yuan/ton (10 day moving average) and 365000 yuan/ton (20 day moving average), respectively. If the price rebounds to this range, it will be a good buying opportunity. The upper pressure level is mainly concentrated at 390000-400000 yuan/ton, which corresponds to the high volatility range in the early stage. Coupled with bullish profit taking, there may be a period of volatile digestion.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on April 14, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9360 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1 (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 9440 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85%.

Entering April, the market support for metal silicon # 441 is limited, and the market is running weakly
Recently, the overall domestic silicon metal market has remained stagnant and weak, with some specifications of silicon metal prices shifting downwards. As of April 14th, the price of metal silicon oxygen 553 # silicon in East China is between 8900-9100 yuan/ton, metal silicon 441 # is between 9100-9300 yuan/ton, metal silicon 421 # is between 9200-9400 yuan/ton, and 3303 # silicon is between 10100-10300 yuan/ton.
fundamental analysis
On the demand side: Currently, the overall operating rate of the downstream polycrystalline silicon market for metallic silicon remains stable. Recently, the price of polycrystalline silicon in the market has been at a low level, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The demand for raw material industrial metal silicon procurement has shown caution. At present, the overall operating rate of downstream organic silicon enterprises is also relatively stable, and some organic silicon monomer factories have shown weak enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials. The operating rate of downstream aluminum silicon alloy enterprises has not been significantly adjusted, while the operating rate of some leading enterprises in the recycling industry remains stable. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have a weak mentality due to insufficient downstream orders.
Supply side: Currently, the overall operating rate of metallic silicon in China has not changed much compared to the beginning of the month. Yunnan and Sichuan regions are still in the dry season, and the overall operating rate is at a low level. In Xinjiang, there are some new and maintenance equipment being replaced, and the overall operating rate is limited, with a reference operating rate of around 75%. The overall output of the supply side has not changed much, and there is still some pressure on the supply due to downstream demand constraints.
Market analysis in the future
Overall, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market are currently in a weakly balanced state. With the arrival of the southwest flood season, the market is expected to face supply pressure, so the fundamentals have not shown significant improvement yet. Due to the abundant supply of industrial silicon spot goods, some downstream users have a habit of purchasing at low prices, and some small and medium-sized silicon enterprises still face inventory pressure. It is expected that in the short term, the metal silicon market will be weakly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the market performance will still be mainly cautious. We still need to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand side news

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid in China has been stable recently. As of April 17th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in Shengyi Society was 3000 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.38% month on month and a decrease of 11.76% year-on-year.

Supply and demand market, relatively balanced
On the supply side, the current market supply is sufficient, and most formic acid manufacturers have resumed production. Although they have not yet fully entered full load operation, the overall supply capacity can meet market demand. Coupled with the low overall inventory in the industry, it provides certain support for price stability. The performance on the demand side is average, and the purchasing willingness of domestic downstream enterprises is weak, mainly focusing on acquiring and replenishing goods for essential needs. There has been no large-scale centralized procurement behavior, and the driving effect on the market situation is limited. However, there is still residual heat in the export market, and export orders can provide temporary support for the market. Under the combined effect of multiple factors, the overall market is showing a stable operating trend.
Overall, the four factors of abundant supply in the formic acid market, weak domestic demand, export support, and low inventory are interacting to maintain price stability. Based on the spot market analysis of Shengyi Society, the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average have overlapped, indicating that the market has reached a turning point and the price position is high, with limited upward space. Therefore, the price of formic acid may operate weakly and steadily.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices have slightly increased this week. As of the 10th, copper prices were reported at 98331.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.23% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 30.64%.
Copper weekly fluctuation chart
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have risen slightly this week, with a decrease of 5 and an increase of 6 in the past three months.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 383450 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 5.21% from last weekend.
Macroscopically, in the first quarter, the Chinese economy remained stable with progress, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, sending a clear signal of increased economic vitality. The US service sector PMI unexpectedly cooled to 54.0 in March, indicating a weakening of expansion momentum. However, the stickiness of the core PCE price index (3.0% year-on-year) is like an invisible line, restraining the nerves of the Federal Reserve. This means that the high interest rate environment may last longer, but the market’s tightening panic has temporarily eased.
Supply side: Overseas mine strikes and frequent force majeure events, coupled with insufficient global capital expenditure, have led to a consensus on the shortage of mining resources. The domestic copper concentrate processing fee (TC) has fallen to freezing point, compressing the profits of smelters. Although sulfuric acid revenue provides a certain buffer, the essence of raw material shortage has not changed.
On the demand side: As we enter April, the traditional peak season effect becomes apparent. The operating rate of refined copper rods has exceeded 80%, and cable and copper tube enterprises have full orders, even experiencing the phenomenon of “production cannot keep up with outbound”.
In summary, the macroeconomic sentiment has rebounded and the fundamentals are characterized by weak supply and strong demand. The bottom support for copper prices is strong, and it is expected that copper prices will experience strong short-term fluctuations.

Since mid March, the domestic PTA market has shown a high volatility trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 3, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6771 yuan/ton, up 2.59% from March 15.

From a cost perspective, PTA prices have always been driven by strong upstream raw materials, which is the core factor supporting its high-level operation. Recently, the international crude oil market has been affected by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with oil prices fluctuating at high levels and the bottom of the cost side continuously rising. On April 2nd, the settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $111.54 per barrel, and the settlement price of the June Brent crude oil futures contract was $109.03 per barrel. At the same time, the Asian PX market is entering a concentrated maintenance season, with supply remaining tight and PX prices remaining firm, further driving up PTA production and processing costs.
Under the pressure of high costs, the processing fees in the PTA industry have been continuously compressed, and the profit margins of some production enterprises have narrowed, forcing large factories to actively reduce their production and burden, forming a two-way support between costs and supply, effectively curbing the space for a significant decline in PTA prices. Top enterprises have successively lowered the operating load of their equipment, with an overall operating rate of around 78% in the industry. The market circulation of goods has tightened, and favorable conditions continue to be released on the supply side.
The downstream polyester industry of PTA has weak terminal orders, and there has been no significant rebound in demand for textile and clothing foreign trade and domestic sales. Polyester factories and weaving enterprises have high finished product inventories, which puts great pressure on capital turnover. Their willingness to purchase high priced PTA is relatively low, mainly for small orders of essential needs. Some polyester factories have even passively reduced production, and their operating load has gradually decreased, resulting in poor transmission of demand for PTA and making it difficult for PTA prices to continue to rise unilaterally.
Business analysts believe that the trend of cost side crude oil and PX remains the dominant factor. If the geopolitical situation continues to be tense and PX supply remains tight, PTA prices will continue to receive strong support. However, the demand for terminal textiles has not yet recovered, and the upward space for prices will be limited. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to maintain a high and wide range oscillation trend in the short term.