Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (October 25): 7000.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the acetic acid market continued to decline on the 25th. The average price of acetic acid in East China decreased by 240 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, down 3.31%. The downstream demand is general, the market purchase is light, the downstream purchase is rational, the transaction of new orders in the market is not smooth, and the inventory of acetic acid manufacturers is accumulated. In order to maintain the shipment, the enterprise quotation continues to be reduced, and the market mentality of the field operators is weak.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the inventory in the domestic acetic acid market continues to accumulate, and the oversupply situation cannot be improved for the time being. It is expected that the future acetic acid market will continue to be weak, and the specific attention will be paid to the downstream transaction.

According to the data of business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market fluctuated at a high level on October 22. As of October 22, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 16166.67 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with October 21 and increased by 21.28% compared with the same period last month.

The downstream unsaturated resin market is operating at a high level and mainly needs to be purchased. Upstream, the pure benzene market negotiation is weak, and the price range in Shandong province fluctuates in a narrow range. On the 22nd, the price of pure benzene was 8200-8550 yuan / ton. On October 22, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong was temporarily stable, and the quotation range was 8000 ~ 8100 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane remained stable, with 6360 yuan / ton in Shandong. At present, the supply of maleic anhydride in the domestic market is limited, and some factories execute early orders. The factories have no inventory pressure, the price is high, and the market is mostly on the sidelines. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price October 21: 46666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on October 21, the price focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market was upward. Affected by power rationing in Guizhou, the market price of yellow phosphorus stopped falling and rebounded. At present, most manufacturers do not offer foreign prices, and traders wait and see. As most downstream enterprises are also affected by power restriction, the demand for yellow phosphorus is relatively limited. The price of yellow phosphorus is expected to be upward in the short term, but the range is limited.

On October 20, the price of orthobenzene was strong and stable

According to the data monitoring of business society, the quotation of o-xylene on the 20th maintained the price on the 18th, and the strong market of o-xylene still exists. As of October 20, the listed executive price of orthobenzene Sinopec was 6900 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton or 4.55% over the price of orthobenzene last week; Compared with the listing price of 6500 yuan / ton in September, it rose by 6.15%, and the adjacent benzene market was still strong in October.

Overview of industrial chain Market

According to the monitoring data of business society, the ox industrial chain index on October 19 was 68.81, up 0.65 points from yesterday, down 33.78% from the highest point 103.91 in the cycle (January 14, 2013), and up 98.07% from the lowest point 34.74 on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from January 1, 2013 to now). In October, the index of ortho benzene industrial chain continued to rise, and the market of ortho benzene industrial chain remained strong.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the prices of o-xylene industry chain rose in October, the price of raw material mixed xylene rose by 17.75%, the price of raw material rose sharply, and the cost of o-xylene rose; The downstream phthalic anhydride market rose, phthalic anhydride rose by 11.97% in October, the downstream market rose, the demand for orthobenzene rose, and the industrial chain market rose strongly.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of business society, mixed xylene continued to rise on the 20th, the cost of o-xylene was high, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise, and the downstream market of o-xylene was good. Generally speaking, the upstream and downstream markets rose together, and the market of o-xylene remained strong.

Acetic anhydride market fell on October 19

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell and the market of acetic anhydride fell on October 19. As of October 19, the price of acetic anhydride was 13500.00 yuan / ton, down 0.92% from the price of the previous trading day, and down 9.70% from 14950.00 yuan / ton on October 1. Acetic anhydride market fell, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased in the future.

Acetic anhydride cost down

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell in October, with a decline of 11% in October, and the cost of acetic anhydride decreased; After October 13, the price of methanol fell slightly, the rising cost of acetic anhydride was not supported, and the future downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

Market overview and future forecast

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials acetic acid and methanol fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the driving force of acetic anhydride rise was no longer, and the downward pressure increased. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1.Price trend analysis of liquid epoxy resin in East China after the festival

After the festival, the offer of East China liquid resin market fell as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 18, the offer of East China liquid resin was 36500-37000 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. In terms of the solid resin market, taking Huangshan solid resin market as an example, the market offer after the festival showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The offer rose to 30000 yuan / ton from 29000 yuan / ton on October 8. On October 18, the market offer weakened, and the offer was around 29600-30000 yuan / ton. On the whole, the solid resin market has little adjustment. Recently, the decline of epoxy resin market is mainly affected by BPA & ECH dual raw materials. Then, what is the trend of BPA & ECH?

Market trend and analysis of bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin after section II

After the festival, bisphenol a market first rises and then suppresses, and then bearish

After the national day, the domestic bisphenol a spot market rose first and then declined. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market offer was 22166 yuan / ton on October 7, and the average market closing offer was 23066 yuan / ton on October 18. The highest point was 24200 yuan / ton on October 13, with an amplitude of 9.17%. At the beginning of the middle of the year, with the release of the news that Tianjin Zhongsha new plant was put into operation and the closing of the auction of 22800 yuan / ton at a factory of East China Petrochemical on Wednesday, the market mentality was impacted, the downstream offer was significantly lower, and the offer of the cargo holder followed the downward trend. Up to now, the mainstream offer in East China is 23400 yuan / ton, and the offer in North China market is 23400-23600 yuan / ton. After the festival, the bisphenol a market also showed the trend of first rising and then restraining with the raw material end phenol and acetone.

In terms of raw materials, phenol ketones are mainly affected by the sharp rise of crude oil during the National Day holiday, the sharp rise of raw materials pure benzene and propylene, and the phenol market first rose and then fell. The overall trend is an increase of 4.46% compared with that before the holiday. The phenol market rose 300 yuan / ton in the first trading day, and the factory increased 500 yuan / ton in three working days. The market followed the rhythm of the factory and pushed up the offer. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol was 9462 yuan / ton on October 7 and 10037 yuan / ton on October 11, an increase of 6.08%. As of October 18, the national market offered 9900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2%. So far, the factory in East China has implemented 10000 yuan / ton, and the offers in major mainstream markets are as follows: 9800 yuan / ton in East China, 9900 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, and 10000 yuan / ton in South China. In terms of acetone, the domestic acetone market was very good after the festival. With the support of cost, the acetone market in East China increased from 6300 yuan / ton to 7100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, according to the national acetone offer, the East China market offer was 6387 yuan / ton on October 7, 7075 yuan / ton on October 18, and the highest point was 7187 yuan / ton on October 12, an overall increase of 10.76%. Up to now, the offer of domestic factories is 7000-7100 yuan / ton, and the offers of major mainstream regions are as follows: 6800 yuan / ton in East China, 7450 yuan / ton in South China, and 6900-6950 yuan / ton in Yanshan and Shandong.

In late October, the new unit is planned to be put into commissioning. At present, the industrial chain has increased greatly from top to bottom, but the downstream transmission effect is not good. In addition, the dual control continues, the local production and power restriction policies are relatively strict, and the terminal demand needs to be released. Next week, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the news, focus on the auction of Sinopec East China Petrochemical this week, and it is expected that the short-term bisphenol a market will be weak and downward.

After the festival, the epichlorohydrin market fell after consolidation and was bearish in the future

After the festival, the epichlorohydrin market fluctuated. In terms of cost, the price of raw propylene is high, the price of glycerol is strong, and the cost pressure is obvious, which supports the manufacturer’s mentality. On the supply side, some factories accumulated inventory during the holidays and mainly reduced prices after the festival. In addition, affected by the news of device restart of large factories in East China, it suppressed the mentality of operators and dragged down the focus of market negotiation. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing mentality is cautious, focusing on just need to follow up, and the buying atmosphere is light. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of October 15, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 21066.67 yuan / ton, down 0.78% compared with the price on October 8, up 3.61% compared with the price on September 15, and up 47.32% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

From the raw material side, for upstream propylene, on the 14th, the high level of propylene market in Shandong fell, enterprises lowered 50-100 yuan / ton, and the propylene price in Shandong was 9550-9600 yuan / ton. The current price showed signs of a slight decline. The prices of upstream crude oil, coal and methanol have risen at a high level, and propylene prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall under the support of costs. Downstream polypropylene, octanol, butanol, propylene oxide and other products have high operating load and strong demand support.

At present, the cost side support is strong, but the demand side is still under pressure. The downstream just needs to follow up carefully, and the buying enthusiasm is general. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be lowered or adjusted weakly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

III. cost profit analysis of epoxy resin

According to the latest price of dual raw materials, the raw material side has a lot of profits, and the expected decline probability in the future is large. At present, the epoxy resin is mainly affected by the cost, and the epoxy resin may decline in the future:

The production cost of bisphenol A = 0.85 Phenol + 0.28 acetone + 2500 yuan. Taking the current market offer in East China as an example, the production cost of bisphenol A is 12762 yuan / ton and the gross profit is about 10238 yuan / ton.

Propylene epichlorohydrin = propylene * 0.68 + liquid chlorine * 2.1 + 3000. At present, the cost of propylene ECH is 14300 yuan / ton and the gross profit is about 5000 yuan / ton.

Glycerol epichlorohydrin = 0.9 * glycerol + 0.82 * hydrochloric acid + 0.443 * calcium oxide + 3000. At present, the cost of glycerol ECH is 15000 yuan / ton and the gross profit is about 4500 yuan / ton.

Liquid epoxy resin = 0.68bpa + 0.54ech + 3000, the cost is about 29980 yuan / ton; At present, the offer of liquid resin Market in East China is 36500-37000 yuan / ton.

One step solid epoxy resin = 0.77 BPA + 0.4 ECH + 2000, the cost is about 28110 yuan / ton. At present, the offer of solid epoxy resin in Huangshan is 29600-30000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of business society, from the current raw material end, the profit space of dual raw materials is large. Although the goods holders support under the current tight supply, when the terminal cost is too high and difficult to digest, the downward conductivity of the industrial chain is weakened and the probability of decline in the later stage is increased. From the perspective of epoxy resin itself, at present, the profit margin of liquid epoxy resin market is good under the condition of relatively stable demand, but the cost pressure of solid epoxy resin is large. At present, under the influence of dual control, the operating rate of solid resin market is around 40%. From the perspective of cost and profit, the epoxy resin market has a high probability of decline in the later stage, and the market is bearish.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the dichloromethane market rose sharply this week (10.11-10.16). As of October 16, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 8587 yuan / ton, up 44.88% from 5927 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, the load of domestic methane chloride units continued to remain low.

The prices of raw materials liquid chlorine and methanol rose this week, and the cost side continued to support. According to the business agency, as of October 16, the price of methanol was 4455 yuan / ton, up 2.72% from 4337 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine of tank car in Shandong Province is about 2500 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that the start-up of dichloromethane industry is low and is expected to decline again, and the cost side is expected to rise. It is expected that the high level of dichloromethane market will be strong in the short term.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on October 14 was 6900 yuan / ton

In terms of inventory, as of October 14, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 490300 tons, and ethylene glycol continued to be in a low inventory state.

Some downstream polyester units still reduce the load or stop, and the purchasing mood is poor. Although the capital gradually leaves the site, and the future price of ethylene glycol has recently stepped into adjustment, the prices of raw materials such as crude oil and power coal remain high, and the port inventory is low. Although the arrival volume of ethylene glycol surges, it depends more on the unloading speed of the port. In general, the fundamentals are still relatively strong, which limits the room for price reduction of ethylene glycol.

Forecast: the adjustment trend is obvious, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is gradually strong.

DBP prices fell on October 13

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DBP price fell on October 13. After experiencing a continuous surge after the festival, the DBP price fell on October 13 and the DBP market stabilized. As of October 13, the price of DBP was 13833.33 yuan / ton, down 1.43% from 14033.33 yuan / ton on October 12 of the previous trading day; Compared with the price of 11266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of October, the price of DBP increased by 22.78%.

On the 13th, the rise of raw material prices slowed down

According to the price monitoring of business club, on the 13th, the prices of DBP raw materials n-butanol and phthalic anhydride rose, but the rise slowed down, and the quotations of some enterprises fell. The overall DBP cost stabilized, and the support for DBP rise was insufficient.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DBP data analyst of business society, believes that after the October Festival, the price of DBP raw materials soared, which stimulated the rise of DBP prices. However, with the continuous rise of prices, the acceptance of downstream customers decreased, and the demand for DBP decreased. On the 13th, the price of raw materials stabilized and fell, which stimulated the decline of DBP prices, and the high cost ensured that DBP prices remained high. DBP prices are expected to remain weak and stable at high levels in the future.

Trade name: acrylic acid

Latest price (October 12): 18433.33 yuan / ton

On October 12, the price of acrylic acid increased by 0.36% compared with the previous trading day, 25.97% compared with the price on September 12, and 24.20% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the price of raw propylene is running at a high price, the cost support is rising, the spot supply in the market is still tight, the inquiry atmosphere is positive, and the focus of negotiation is upward.

It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market may operate strongly.