Affected by the cost side, from the beginning of December 2019 to now, the pta2005 contract has risen from 4800 yuan / ton to 5150 yuan / ton and then fell back. At present, it hovers around 4900 yuan / ton. For the aftermarket, the author analyzes as follows:

PX excess may increase

In 2019, in addition to the 4.5-million-ton PX super large unit put into operation by Hengli refining, Fuhai will resume production of 1.6-million-ton unit, Liaoyang will expand its capacity by 200000 tons, Sinochem Hongrun’s 600000-ton and Hainan Refining & Chemical’s 1-million-ton new units will be put into operation successively. With the release of new production capacity, PX’s profit has declined from a high level, and some enterprises have been in a state of loss.

From the end of 2019 to 2020, new PX devices are still planned to be put into operation. Hengyi’s 1.5 million ton capacity plant has been opened in November 2019, and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 4 million ton capacity super large plant is expected to be opened in the first half of 2020. In addition, Saudi Arabia also plans to put into operation a new PX plant with a capacity of 850000 tons. Fuhai group, Sinochem Hongrun, Sinochem Quanzhou phase I, Ningbo CICC, etc. all plan to put PX capacity into operation. The degree of PX supply surplus in Asia may intensify in 2020, and the price difference profit will be further compressed. In the new year, the survival of PX storage devices in Asia is facing a test. Medium and high cost storage devices with a low degree of integration will be forced to cut production and give up market share to new integrated devices, and new devices will also be forced to carry out appropriate output increment control.

PTA new units are put into operation successively

In 2019, the total production of PTA in China was 44.43 million tons, an increase of 9.27% year-on-year. The production in 2020 is expected to be higher than that of last year, mainly due to the high profit of PTA production in the first half of 2019, the overload production of the factory and the large number of units put into operation in that year. By the end of 2019, PTA social inventory exceeded 1.4 million tons, which was at a high level. In the first quarter of 2020, although Yisheng device was overhauled, 1.2 million tons of devices of Zhongtai and Hengli were put into operation successively, and PTA supply capacity is beyond doubt. After the Spring Festival, PTA social inventory will continue to accumulate.

Poor downstream demand

Due to the influence of high production capacity and high starting load, compared with the past two years, the current polyester factory inventory is much higher. As of January 14, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 10-19 days. Inventory accumulation, low price, polyester factory ahead of the new year. As of January 13, the polyester operating load dropped to 76%, and in the continuous decline, the production capacity has been reduced plus the planned production reduction, totaling more than 12 million tons. This week is the time for weaving factories to have a centralized holiday. The starting load of looms may fall to the lowest point in the year. In addition, in recent years, China’s textile industry is facing a more severe external situation, with its export profit margin falling month on month, and the main export markets, Europe, the United States and Japan, lack of orders.

Poor terminal demand, poor weaving start-up load and fabric price, polyester start-up load and profit, inhibit the downward transmission of price, and even suppress PTA price upward.

Generally speaking, crude oil will boost PTA price in the future, but at present, the logic of oil price operation is not clear, PTA price is under pressure, and it is expected to be weak oscillation.

The rising price stimulates the starting load of glycol unit to rise, and the abundant supply of imported goods in the later period will inevitably put pressure on glycol market, and the price may peak in the later period.

With the Spring Festival approaching, the polyester starting load falls, the terminal weaving starting load is at a new low within the year, and the bearish atmosphere of glycol market heats up.

Production enterprises increase the intensity of commencement

From January to November 2019, due to the oversupply of supply, the price of glycol rose briefly due to the market panic caused by the drone attack in Saudi Arabia in the middle of September, and remained in a low operating state for the rest of the time. Ethylene glycol production enterprises, especially those adopting non ethylene process with high cost, are suffering from continuous deterioration of business conditions and serious losses. Some enterprises are forced to shut down their units to reduce losses. Affected by this, the problem of ethylene glycol supply exceeding demand has been alleviated, and the industry has entered the de stocking cycle. As of January 16, 2020, the ethylene glycol inventory in East China is 353000 tons, which is 886000 tons less than the historical peak on April 25, 2019, a decrease of 71.51%. The inventory has been at a low level for many years, and the market supply and demand pattern has improved. Since December 2019, the price of glycol has risen sharply, up nearly 15%.

With the continuous rise of glycol price, the operation of glycol production enterprises has improved. The gross profit of coal to glycol is 157 yuan / ton, methanol to glycol is – 956.2 yuan / ton, ethylene to glycol is – 63 dollars / ton, naphtha to glycol is – 4.54 dollars / ton. In this case, the start-up load of coal preparation plant is significantly increased. As of January 14, the operating load of non ethylene glycol unit was 74.57%, 29.06% higher than the low point in 2019; the operating load of ethylene glycol unit was 68.85%, 10.48% higher than the low point in 2019. At present, in addition to the long-term shutdown devices and some EO conversion devices, most of the devices have been restored to production, and the supply of domestic market is gradually released.

In the international market, most of the glycol units are in normal operation, and there are few maintenance units, which leads to the relatively low price of imported glycol, and the import arbitrage space reaches 300 yuan / ton. Under the stimulation of profits, a large number of domestic ethylene glycol imports are expected to be concentrated in Hong Kong in the first quarter. The starting load of domestic units has been increased, a large number of imported goods have poured in, and the supply of glycol is sufficient in the future.

After the year, the downstream replenishment may be less than the previous years

Near the Spring Festival, the downstream polyester enterprises have a large area of parking and maintenance, and the starting load of the terminal weaving industry is at a new low in the year. As of January 17, the starting load of polyester enterprises was 77.04%, 2.12% lower than that of the same period in 2019; the starting load of weaving enterprises was 25%, 37% lower than that of the same period in 2019. Of course, the starting load of weaving enterprises is significantly lower than that in 2019, which is largely the reason for the earlier spring festival this year. However, at present, the inventory of polyester enterprises is higher than that of previous years. As of January 16, the POY inventory of filament is 8.5 days, an increase of 4.5 days or 112.5% compared with the same period of 2019; the DTY inventory of filament is 20.5 days, an increase of 11.5 days or 127.7% compared with the same period of 2019; the FDY inventory of filament is 13 days, an increase of 6 days or 85.7% compared with the same period of 2019; the short polyester fiber inventory is 4.96 days, a decrease of 0.04 days or 0.8% compared with the same period of 2019. This means that after the Spring Festival, the replenishment of downstream polyester enterprises may not be as strong as that of previous years, and the demand for glycol will be restrained.

Forecast for future market

Combined with the above analysis, since it is difficult to hedge the supply increase due to the demand increase, the glycol market will return to the stock accumulation cycle, and the price will continue to decline. In terms of operation, short orders in the early stage continue to be held, and investors who do not enter the market can see a rebound

US media said that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pointed out on the 15th that the improvement of the global economic outlook will help accelerate the growth of oil demand in 2020.

According to a report on the Wall Street Journal’s website on January 15, OPEC raised its forecast of global oil demand growth by 140000 barrels a day to 1.22 million barrels in 2020, and raised its forecast of global economic growth to 3.1% in 2020 in this highly focused monthly oil market report.

According to the report, OPEC’s revised oil demand growth forecast mainly reflects the improvement of the economic outlook in 2020, and most of the demand growth is expected to come from developing countries, especially China and India.

A month ago, OPEC and its allies just reached a new production reduction agreement, which will reduce production by another 500000 barrels a day until the end of March 2020, bringing the daily production reduction of the alliance to about 1.7 million barrels. OPEC’s increased production cuts are aimed at easing the impact of the slowdown in global economic growth, which last year had a knock on effect on global oil demand. In this case, OPEC cut its forecast of global oil demand growth in 2019 five times in eight months.

But those who want a more balanced supply and demand for oil may be disappointed. OPEC raised its non OPEC daily supply growth forecast by 180000 barrels to 2.35 million barrels in 2020, citing higher supply growth expectations in Norway, Mexico and Guyana.

Despite a cut in us supply growth expectations, OPEC said other non OPEC oil producing countries, such as the US, Canada, Brazil, Norway and Guyana, would lead global supply growth this year.

The report said that OPEC and its allies reached a further production reduction agreement in December last year, may not be able to curb the aggravation of the global oil supply surplus. Since January, the global benchmark Brent crude oil price has fallen by 3%, and the US crude oil futures price has fallen by 5.3% after a sharp fluctuation in the first week of January.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market continued to be weak, with the main downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was 4566.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was 4400 yuan / ton, down 3.65% in the week, with the price rising 3.53% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic liquefied gas market fell continuously this week, with general trading atmosphere. As of January 17. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4450 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4650 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4420 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4400 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4400 yuan / ton Luoyang Petrochemical liquefied gas factory price is 4500 yuan / ton.

This week, China’s overall liquefied gas cut. International crude oil fell this week, playing a negative role in the liquefied gas market, affecting the market mentality. As the Spring Festival approaches, manufacturers need to store and arrange before the festival. At the beginning of the week, the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light, and prices continue to fall. With the price falling low, downstream bargain hunting to replenish the market, the weekend market trading atmosphere slightly improved, and the market decline slowed down. There is no obvious change in the terminal demand, but the demand for replenishment and storage in the downstream before the festival.

Saudi Aramco’s January CP reported a sharp rise in both propylene and butane. Propane rose to $565 / T, up $125 / T from last month, and butane to $590 / T, up $135 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the second week of 2020 (1.13-1.17), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three commodities are methanol (3.43%), dimethyl ether (2.98%) and liquefied natural gas (0.76%). There are 7 commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were liquefied gas (- 3.65%), petroleum coke (- 3.42%) and naphtha (- 1.80%). This week’s average was – 0.33%.

3、 Future forecast

As the Spring Festival approaches, manufacturers need to store, arrange and ship goods continuously. At present, with the price reduction, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has improved, the manufacturer’s shipment has also improved, and the overall sales volume has increased, but the demand for inventory and inventory is still there. In February, CP price is expected to fall, the international market trend is weak, and the support for liquefied gas market is limited. It is expected that if there is no obvious positive in the short term, there is still the possibility of falling.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 3136.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3230 yuan / ton, up 2.98% in the week, and the price was 5.37% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: on Tuesday, the transaction atmosphere of methyl ether (Henan) market was active. As of January 17, Hebei Yutai, Henan lankaohuitong, Shanxi Lanhua science and Technology Co., Ltd. and other devices had been shut down for maintenance; Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether device failed, so no offer was made temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 3380 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3360 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3530 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan company is 3540 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 3300 yuan / ton.

On Tuesday, the market for methyl ether rose as a whole, and the market operating rate continued to be low, about 15%, with less overall market supply. At present, some manufacturers park out of stock. Spring Festival holiday is coming, terminal stock demand, enthusiasm into the market is better. Methanol market trend rose this week, futures rose strongly, boosting the mentality of factories in the mainland. The region actively pushed up, trading was smooth, which played a positive role in DME market. This week, the international crude oil fell mainly, the liquefied gas market continued to decline, and the gap between gas and ether continued to widen, which affected the DME market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the second week of 2020 (1.13-1.17), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three commodities are methanol (3.43%), dimethyl ether (2.98%) and liquefied natural gas (0.76%). There are 7 commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were liquefied gas (- 3.65%), petroleum coke (- 3.42%) and naphtha (- 1.80%). This week’s average was – 0.33%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the weakness of international crude oil is declining, and the demand of civil gas manufacturers for storage and discharge before the festival is still weak, which limits the rise of dimethyl ether. However, there is a demand for replenishment at the DME terminal, the manufacturer’s shipment continues to be good, and the mentality is relatively strong. In addition, the cost of methanol continues to rise, which is good for the market. It is expected that the market will continue to rise in the near future, and the range may be narrowed.

1、 Price trend

The propane market fell broadly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4992.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4730 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.26% in the week. The price was 12.62% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane Market Transaction atmosphere this week is average. As of January 17, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so it was not quoted temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 5000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4650 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4770 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4800 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4750 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4650 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4700 yuan / ton.

The Spring Festival holiday is coming, and propane is mainly discharged in Shandong this week, with prices falling continuously. This week, the overall decline of international crude oil affected the market mentality. Before the festival, the manufacturer needs to store and arrange the stock, continuously reduce the price and give priority to profit delivery. Downstream demand continued to be sluggish, with more wait-and-see in the early part of the week. As prices continued to fall, the enthusiasm for market entry picked up in the late part of the week. However, due to the excessive rise in the early stage, it is still at a relatively high level. Although the import gas has been reduced, the cost is high and the falling space is limited.

Saudi Aramco’s January CP reported a sharp rise in both propylene and butane. Propane rose to $565 / T, up $125 / T from last month, and butane to $590 / T, up $135 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the second week of 2020 (1.13-1.17) in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the chemical industry sector, the top three commodities rising are acetone (4.08%), acetic acid (3.92%) and dichloromethane (3.63%). There are 24 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first 3 drops are glycol (-5.93%), propane (-5.26%) and ammonium chloride (-3.91%). This week’s average was – 0.08%.

3、 Future forecast

The decline of international crude oil is bad for the market. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, most of the storage, discharge and storage needs of refineries continue to yield profits and shipments. As the price falls, the enthusiasm for downstream market entry has improved. However, the import cost is at a high level, and the space for yield is limited. It is expected that the decline will continue next week, with a small range.

Recently, the price of rare earth in China has remained stable, and the market price of some light rare earth has increased slightly. The price trend of some rare earth products in China is shown as follows:

Recently, the price trend of heavy rare earth market in China is stable, as of the 16th, the price of dysprosium oxide is 1.7 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.685 million yuan / ton; the price of some light rare earth market in China is also rising, the price of neodymium oxide as of the 16th is 292000 yuan / ton, the price trend is stable; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 358000 yuan / ton, the price trend is stable; the price of praseodymium neodymium neodymium oxide is 279000 yuan/ The price of neodymium increased by 500 yuan / ton to 367500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price trend of heavy rare earth in China has been stable, and some prices in light rare earth market have risen. Affected by favorable national policies, the domestic rare earth market has maintained a high level.

On January 15, the rare earth index was 338, unchanged from yesterday, 66.20% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 24.72% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).
Recently, the price of rare earth in the market has risen sharply. The supply policy of domestic market of heavy rare earth has improved. The domestic market of heavy rare earth is very good. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has rebounded, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth in the near future is general, and the market price has not increased much. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

In November 2018, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy And the development of the world economy. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of rare earth in the domestic market remained high and volatile.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, coupled with favorable domestic support for the export of rare earth industry, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high after the Spring Festival, and the trend of light rare earth market will be improved.

On January 16, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 122.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.39% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 71.22% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business agency: after the new year’s day, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a wave of rising trend. Due to the poor demand, the price of hydrogen peroxide has been callback after the rise. As of January 16, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1130 yuan / ton, down 0.88% from the beginning of the week and up 2.11% from the beginning of the month.

market analysis

In January, the price of hydrogen peroxide terminal hexanoyl increased, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide increased. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers shut down, and the manufacturers raised their prices for sales. The price of hydrogen peroxide increased by more than 5 points. With the Spring Festival approaching, the terminal demand will fall, and after the surge of hydrogen peroxide, there will be a callback. The market of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong and Anhui is relatively stable, and the price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei continues to fall.

As of January 16, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong: Luxi Chemical 27.5% hydrogen peroxide 1090 yuan / ton; the price is 20 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of January.

Hebei Province: the ex factory price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer industry fell to 1000 yuan / ton, 120 yuan / ton lower than that in early January.

Anhui Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng, Anhui Province is 1300 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that in early January.

Hunan Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hunan Shuangyang is 1250 yuan / ton, the same as that in early January.

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted price is 1200 yuan / ton, the price is the same as that in early January.

Industry chain: the price of caprolactam at the end of hydrogen peroxide continues to decline in a weak way. The paper and textile printing enterprises have been shut down for holidays in succession. The purchase of hydrogen peroxide is less, the demand is greatly reduced, the price of hydrogen peroxide is weak, the inventory of production enterprises in some regions is low, and the price of hydrogen peroxide in other enterprises continues to decline in a weak way.

Outlook for the future

Hydrogen peroxide analysts of the business club believe that: the Spring Festival is coming, there is basically no market for hydrogen peroxide before the festival, and it is mainly weak and stable. In the short term after the festival, the price of hydrogen peroxide is still difficult to rise.

On January 13, China Petroleum Group Institute of economics and technology, a national high-end think tank, held a press conference on the development report of domestic and foreign oil and gas industries in 2019 in Beijing. According to the report, in 2019, the total refining capacity will rise to 860 million tons / year, while the total ethylene capacity will break through 30 million tons / year for the first time, and the excess refining capacity will become increasingly fierce. According to the current projects under construction and approved for construction and planning, China’s refining capacity will rise to 1.02 billion tons / year in 2025, and its ethylene capacity will exceed 50 million tons / year, ranking first in the world in terms of both surpassing the United States.

Based on the comprehensive analysis of the development mode of oil and gas industry at home and abroad in 2019, the report considers that there are several characteristics:

domestic

Domestic oil production has stopped falling and picked up, and the rapid increase of oil and gas dependence on foreign countries has been curbed. The situation of domestic exploration and development has improved. In 2019, crude oil production reversed its downward trend for several consecutive years, reaching 191 million tons, an increase of 1.1%; natural gas production is estimated to reach 173.8 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.8%. Although domestic oil and gas dependence on foreign countries is still rising, the momentum of rapid increase has been curbed.

The domestic oil and gas production is expected to reach 194 million tons and 190 billion cubic meters respectively in 2020. In addition, with the implementation of the national policy of developing clean coal, replacing oil with more energy, and increasing the proportion of terminal power consumption, the external dependence of oil and gas will increase steadily and slowly.

China’s refined oil consumption has entered the stage of medium and low-speed growth, and the pressure of refined oil export continues to increase. In 2019, the dependence of crude oil and oil on foreign countries will double to 70%. The growth rate of domestic consumption of gasoline, diesel and coal products will slow down for various reasons, and the pressure on the export of oil products will increase. In 2020, it is expected that the growth rate of domestic refined oil demand will continue to slow down, the refining capacity will continue to increase, the supply will continue to be surplus, and the net export of refined oil may exceed 60 million tons, surpassing South Korea to become the largest exporter of refined oil in the Asia Pacific region.

New progress has been made in the construction of natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system. In 2019, the growth rate of China’s natural gas production was 9.6%, exceeding the growth rate of import, and the degree of foreign dependence was basically the same as that of the previous year. Significant progress has been made in China’s key projects of natural gas infrastructure interconnection, LNG receiving capacity and peak shaving capacity of gas storage. The market-oriented reform of natural gas has been steadily promoted, and the capacity of domestic natural gas safety and supply assurance has been significantly improved. In 2020 and later, with the expansion of China’s natural gas market and the continuous improvement of the degree of marketization, the construction of natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system still needs to be continuously improved to further improve the efficiency of resource allocation and supply guarantee capacity.

The excess refining energy tends to be heavy and has the potential to expand to the low-end downstream of refining and chemical integration. In 2019, the total refining capacity will rise to 860 million tons / year, and the total ethylene capacity will break through 30 million tons / year for the first time. The excess refining capacity will become more and more severe. According to the current projects under construction and approved for construction and planning, China’s refining capacity will rise to 1.02 billion tons / year in 2025, and its ethylene capacity will exceed 50 million tons / year, ranking first in the world in terms of both surpassing the United States.

Strategic breakthroughs have been made in international oil and gas cooperation. In 2019, the natural gas pipeline of China Russia east line will take five years to complete and ventilate, and the natural gas from Russia will connect with the main consumer market of Northeast China, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Yangtze River Delta; Sinopec, Guanghui energy, new Austria energy and other enterprises will sign a number of long-term LNG supply contracts. The main consumption market of natural gas in the east of China has formed a multi source competition pattern.

The market-oriented reform process of the oil and gas industry has been significantly accelerated. In 2019, the government departments issued a number of policies around the implementation of several opinions on deepening the reform of the oil and gas system to promote the full opening of the oil and gas industry. At the same time, we will comprehensively promote the competitive transfer of mining rights; reform the operation mechanism of oil and gas pipeline network, control the two ends of the middle and open up, deepen the reform of oil and gas price formation mechanism, and strengthen market supervision. The reform of oil and gas industry system and mechanism has broken the original industry barriers, and the implementation of the new policy will further promote the process of marketization.

international

Exerting influence on the global oil and gas market has become an important starting point for the us to carry out the strategy of “US priority”. With the help of energy independence, the United States has strengthened its control and influence over the global oil market. OPEC’s internal cohesion and overall influence declined, and Qatar and Ecuador withdrew successively. Considering comprehensively, although geopolitical factors may lead to short-term and local supply tension and induce price fluctuations, the supply and demand fundamentals do not support the obvious rise of international oil prices.

Global natural gas supply and demand continue to ease. In 2019, the global natural gas trade grew by 9.1%, basically the same as the previous year, and the LNG trade grew by 12.2%, close to twice the growth rate of pipeline gas trade. The linkage of Eurasian market is prominent, and the European NBP price and the Asian LNG spot average price have all declined by about 40%. It is expected that in 2020, global natural gas supply and demand will continue to be relaxed, prices will remain low, and the game between supply and demand sides, traditional and emerging countries will continue to intensify.

The report predicts that in 2020, the global economic trend will remain weak, and the international oil price will maintain a volatile trend. The average Brent crude oil price range is 60-65 USD / barrel. For the unstable global macroeconomic and political situation, especially the trade disputes between the United States and major economies, and the greater uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, it is also possible that the average annual level of international oil prices will fall below 50 US dollars per barrel or rise above 75 US dollars per barrel.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

2、 Market analysis:

On January 15, acrylic acid market was stable. The average price of acrylic acid enterprises as of January 15 was 8200 yuan / ton, which was the same as yesterday, down 3.53% compared with the same period last year, according to the bulk list of business agencies. On the 15th, the main price of acrylic acid in China was around 7500-9300 yuan / ton. On January 15, the acrylic commodity index was 41.12, unchanged from yesterday, 58.88% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 67.36% higher than the lowest point of 24.57 on November 26, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 till now) at present, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. is temporarily stable, with 7600 yuan / ton of common acid and 8100 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua Chemical Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7800 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid business association believe that the price of raw material propylene rose to a high level recently, with strong cost support. Before the downstream Festival, the atmosphere of goods preparation was active, the actual orders were increased, and the market trading was good. It is expected that in the short term, acrylic acid market will be dominated by high and strong operation, and more attention should be paid to upstream and downstream and mainstream market conditions.