In September 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall upward trend. The monthly market continued the previous recovery trend, and the overall price center steadily rose. The average price of antimony ingots in the market at the beginning of this month was 102000 yuan/ton. After a temporary surge in the market during the month, it slightly fell back and adjusted. The average price at the end of the month closed at 104250 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 2.21% during the month.
Looking at the market throughout the month, the core logic of the market revolves around the game of supply and demand. The tightening of raw material supply provides a solid bottom support for the market, driving prices to rise in stages. However, the insufficient release of downstream demand during peak seasons has led to pressure and fluctuations in the high price range, ultimately resulting in a slight increase.
Supply side:
In September, the overall supply of antimony ingots in China remained tight, which became the core positive factor supporting the overall upward trend of antimony prices this month. The ban on the export of overseas antimony ore continues to take effect, significantly reducing the supplementary channels for domestic imported ore sources. Coupled with the continued strict control of domestic antimony mining quotas, the circulation of antimony concentrate in the market has always been in a tight balance. Affected by high raw material prices, domestic smelting enterprises are under pressure in terms of production costs and limited profit margins. The overall operating load remains low, and the spot supply of antimony ingots in the market has been reduced. At the same time, the industry’s social inventory has been at a low level after long-term consumption, and traders have a strong mentality of selling at low prices. The buffer space for spot circulation is insufficient, and the tight supply fundamentals throughout the month effectively support the price of antimony ingots, supporting the overall rise of the monthly market.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. In September, we entered the traditional gold nine consumption cycle downstream of antimony, with demand support mainly coming from two major sectors: antimony trioxide and photovoltaic glass. However, the procurement pace in these two areas is differentiated, and the overall volume increase is relatively weak.
Antimony oxide: As the largest downstream of antimony ingots, antimony oxide has seen seasonal production in the traditional plastic and flame retardant product industries. The market price of antimony trioxide has risen in sync with antimony ingots, and there has been a stable flow of demand orders in the market. However, the continuous price increase of antimony ingots continues to squeeze the profits of flame retardant processing enterprises. Downstream factories avoid the risk of high prices and only maintain a small amount of replenishment according to demand. Large scale hoarding behavior is rare, and the driving force for antimony prices is limited.
Photovoltaics: As the core incremental track of antimony ingots, the photovoltaic glass sector has long had stable and rigid procurement demand, and the industry’s production has maintained normal operation, continuously consuming antimony ingot inventory to form a foundation for bottoming out. However, this month, the pace of bidding for photovoltaic terminal projects has slowed down, glass factory finished product inventory has accumulated, and enterprises have strictly controlled raw material procurement costs, only carrying out daily production needs to obtain goods, without carrying out pre holiday centralized replenishment. Both downstream markets lack sustained momentum to increase production, which directly leads to a lack of support and a pullback in antimony prices after a surge.
Market forecast:

In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market will maintain a high volatility pattern, and it is difficult to realize the significant fluctuations in the market on one side. The current situation of tight balance on the supply side cannot be improved in the short term. The contraction of overseas mineral supply, strict control over domestic antimony mining, low inventory in the industry, and the reluctance of smelters to sell and raise prices continue to support the bottom market. The space for antimony prices to significantly decline is basically closed. The key to whether the subsequent prices can strengthen again depends on the pace of replenishing inventory in the downstream of antimony oxide and photovoltaics. If the end orders of the flame retardant industry are released in a concentrated manner, antimony oxide manufacturers increase raw material procurement, or photovoltaic glass enterprises enter a centralized stocking cycle, antimony ingot prices are expected to test the upper high again; If the two downstream markets continue to maintain sporadic purchases on demand and there is no concentrated increase in demand, the market situation will continue to narrow sideways. In the medium to long term, there are rigid constraints on the global supply of antimony raw materials, and the long-term expansion of the photovoltaic industry brings stable incremental demand. The central price of antimony ingots in the market still has a long-term trend of gradually rising.

As of September 24, 2026, the gold spot market price was 926.57 yuan/gram, a decrease of 3.50% yuan/gram from the gold spot market price of 960.20 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month.
On September 24th, the price of gold continued to decline, and in terms of spot trading:
On September 24, 2026, the benchmark price of Shanghai Gold Exchange in the afternoon session was 924.45 yuan/gram, down 3.82 yuan/gram from the earlier benchmark price of 928.27 yuan/gram; Compared to the benchmark price of 935.50 yuan/gram in the afternoon session of the previous trading day, it decreased by 11.05 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the downward movement of precious metal prices in September
1. The Federal Reserve’s policy expectation shifts towards an increase in real interest rates
The resilience of August CPI, PPI, and non farm payroll data in the United States exceeded expectations, and inflation fell short of expectations; Officials at the Jackson Hole annual meeting are hawkish, and the market has significantly lowered expectations for interest rate cuts, even pricing a 25bp rate hike in September. The nominal yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has exceeded 5%, and the real interest rate has significantly risen.
Gold is an interest free asset, and an increase in real interest rates means an increase in the opportunity cost of holding gold, which directly suppresses valuation;
The US dollar index strengthened synchronously, causing gold and silver priced in US dollars to become more expensive for overseas buyers, triggering long positions to be reduced.
In September, the Federal Reserve implemented a rate hike followed by a hawkish dot matrix, indicating that high interest rates will be maintained for a longer period of time. It is expected that after the complete implementation, precious metals will be further under pressure.
2. In the early stage, the geopolitical hedging premium was concentrated and sold back
The significant increase in gold prices in August was largely due to the safe haven premium caused by the Middle East conflict; In September, the United States and Iran released signals of easing negotiations, and there were no substantial shipping blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict did not escalate further.
Withdrawing safe haven funds from gold and returning risky assets;
In the early stage of the game, speculative long positions were concentrated to close out geopolitical risks, amplifying the magnitude of the pullback (which is the same macro mainline as the disappearance of the geopolitical premium of ethylene glycol).
3. At the financial level: ETFs and futures long positions reduce positions, leading to a downward trend
Global gold ETFs have shifted from continuous inflows to net outflows of funds;
COMEX futures speculation saw a significant reduction in long positions at high levels, triggering a large number of stop loss orders and accelerating price declines.
4. Silver has experienced a significant decline compared to gold
Silver combines both precious metal and industrial properties, and is under additional pressure in addition to macro bearish sentiment
(1) The global manufacturing industry is expected to be weak, and the demand for silver industry in the chemical, photovoltaic, and electronic sectors is expected to be lowered;
(2) Silver speculation accounts for a higher proportion, and its volatility is naturally greater than that of gold, resulting in a stronger downward trend under macro bearish conditions.
5. Physical demand side: high prices suppress consumer buying
After the gold price surged in August, consumption of gold and silver jewelry and retail gold bars remained cautious, and stocking up for Indian holidays was delayed, resulting in a lack of support for physical buying; Although the central bank continues to maintain net purchases, it is a slow variable that cannot withstand macroeconomic interest rate shocks in the short term.
Gold price forecast for the future
Short term volatility is weak: US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar remain dominant, and without new Middle Eastern black swans, precious metals are likely to experience weak volatility; If US inflation falls again and expectations of interest rate cuts rebound, there will be a chance for a rebound.
The medium to long-term upward trend has not been disrupted: the central bank’s continued gold purchases are still the underlying support, and this round is more inclined towards a pullback in the bull market, not a trend reversal.

On September 23rd, the cobalt price was 280000 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell 8.53% compared to the cobalt price of 306100 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, cobalt prices continued their volatile downward trend from August, and the cobalt market showed a weak pattern of unilateral decline and continuous downward shift in focus. In mid to late September, it temporarily gained support around 280000 yuan/ton, but trading remained light and did not receive any upward support.
MB cobalt price drops
In September, the international cobalt price of MB also fluctuated and weakened, with standard grade cobalt and alloy grade cobalt following the domestic spot price correction, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets slightly narrowed.
Demand side: structural contraction coupled with sluggish peak season
According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of installed capacity, in August, the domestic installed capacity of ternary batteries was 11.0 GWh, accounting for 14.0% of the total installed capacity, a month on month decrease of 1.0%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; The installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased compared to the previous month, and the demand for cobalt in the power battery market has decreased. In August, the production of ternary precursors only increased by 0.76% compared to the previous month, and the production schedule for September is expected to decrease by about 3% compared to the previous month. The quality of “golden nine and silver ten” is seriously insufficient.
Supply side: differentiation between policy shortage expectations and reality
The cobalt export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo has long been expected to shrink in supply, but the actual implementation of export measures is not as strong as expected. The quota for the first quarter has been postponed until the end of June, and the goods that enterprises are eager to export will be transported by sea to the port in August and September, quickly easing the domestic shortage of raw materials. Short term domestic inventory of raw materials and finished products is still being digested, and policy benefits have not yet been realized in September spot prices.
On September 11th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and nine other departments jointly issued a document, clearly proposing to “coordinate the mining and recycling of key mineral resources such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel”. On September 21st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a draft for soliciting opinions on the standard system for the recycling and utilization of power batteries, defining the boundary rules for the secondary supply of cobalt. These policies are beneficial for the long-term supply chain security of cobalt, narrowing the expectation of supply shortage in the cobalt market and suppressing the rise in cobalt prices.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Analysts believe that although the quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo has compressed the export ceiling, mining production has not decreased, and the shortage of domestic raw materials has quickly eased after the rush to export goods are concentrated at the port; At the same time, the basic demand for cobalt continues to narrow, and the structural contraction on the demand side is intensifying. In the future, supply shortages cannot offset the structural contraction of demand, and cobalt prices lack clear unilateral drivers. It is expected that cobalt prices will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the future.

Market Review
In the past week (September 16-22), the domestic PA66 market has shifted from a high stalemate to a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, spot prices remained high, and the mainstream price of Shenma EPR27 was lowered by 500 yuan/ton during the week. The focus of market negotiations gradually decreased, and the bargaining space for actual orders increased. Traders’ shipping mentality relaxed, and prices fell back from the high range. The technical average deviation index turned negative on the 5th, 10th, and 20th, forming a clear downward signal.
cost analysis
The cost support brought by upstream adiponitrile and adipic acid in the early stage has shown marginal weakening, pure benzene oscillation has weakened, and the upward thrust of raw materials on PA66 has decreased. Integrated enterprises can still maintain a certain level of profit, while non integrated processing enterprises have seen their production profits continue to be compressed due to the decline in slicing prices. The support of the cost side for the market has weakened, making it difficult to stop the trend of spot price correction.
Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the mainstream PA66 production facilities in China have maintained relatively high levels of operation, with sufficient overall supply of goods. The pressure on factory inventory has gradually accumulated, and the mentality of raising prices in the early stage has loosened. Leading enterprises have actively lowered their quotations, driving down market quotations. The supply of circulating goods is abundant, and there is currently no reduction support brought about by centralized maintenance. On the demand side, the traditional “Golden September” peak season expectations did not meet expectations, and there were inquiries from downstream modification, injection molding, and airbag wire industries. However, the actual new orders for terminal automobiles and electronic and electrical products were limited. Downstream enterprises had strong resistance to high-end raw materials, insisting on using and purchasing as needed, and were afraid to stock up in large quantities. They mainly consumed essential goods and lacked proactive replenishment actions. The demand side was unable to bear the high prices in the early stage, which was the core drag factor of the market downturn.
Short term forecast for the future market
In the short term, the weak operating pattern of PA66 may continue. The price is at a high level in a 60 day cycle, with room for correction and release. Only in a one-year cycle, it is at a medium low level, with limited room for deep decline. Raw material fluctuations, factory scheduling, and downstream order landing will be the main observed variables. It is expected that the short-term market will be mainly weak and volatile, with a focus on fluctuations in adiponitrile adipic acid raw materials, factory price adjustments, actual follow-up of downstream “Golden Nine” orders, and pre holiday stocking rhythm.

The weakening of crude oil support has led to PTA prices following fluctuations in crude oil, and the supply and demand side is gradually shifting towards increasing supply and decreasing demand. The effectiveness of the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season needs further verification. Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a slight decline. As of September 21, the PTA spot benchmark price was 7049 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.25% from September 17.
On the cost side, in the international crude oil market, and on the spot side, Saudi Aramco sold approximately 60 million barrels of crude oil to Asia through ship to ship transfers, driving the Gulf region’s crude oil exports back to an average of 1-1.5 million barrels per day, effectively filling the export gap caused by pipeline damage at Yanbu Port. The supply of crude oil in the Asian market was adequately guaranteed, which suppressed the spot price of crude oil. On the futures side, the expectation of loose crude oil supply is heating up, and the impact of rising tanker freight rates is basically covered by the increase in supply, putting pressure on crude oil futures prices. As of September 18th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $96.08 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $103.87 per barrel.
On the supply side, multiple sets of PTA units that underwent early maintenance were restarted, and the industry’s operating rate rose to around 72%. The market’s available supply gradually increased, and the subsequent supply increment continued to be released. Although some individual devices have been temporarily shut down for maintenance, it is difficult to change the overall trend of resuming production. In mid to late September, PTA is highly likely to end destocking and gradually enter the stage of accumulating inventory, suppressing the upward space for prices.
The performance of the demand side falls short of traditional peak season expectations, becoming the main weakness that constrains the market. The operating rate of the downstream polyester industry has fallen to around 74%, and the pressure of losses in bottle chips and short fibers has increased, leading to an increase in production cuts and maintenance. The production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has decreased seasonally, and the follow-up of terminal textile orders is weak. Downstream resistance to high priced raw materials is evident, and the willingness to replenish raw materials is cautious. The downward transmission of the industrial chain is hindered, and negative feedback continues to emerge. The expected peak season of Golden September in the market has not yet been fully realized, and downstream enterprises have plans to reduce production before and after the National Day holiday, making it difficult for short-term demand to be significantly boosted.
Looking at the future, analysts believe that in the short term, PTA’s own supply recovery and weak demand will suppress it, but the cost of crude oil PX will support the bottom, so the price will mainly fluctuate within a range. The follow-up focus will be on tracking two major variables: first, changes in international crude oil and PX prices; The second is whether the terminal textile orders can substantially recover and observe whether the polyester production has stopped falling and rebounded. If the demand during peak season continues to fall short of expectations, coupled with the continuous release of supply, there is a risk of PTA price correction; If terminal orders explode beyond expectations, there will be upward price elasticity.

Recently, the lithium carbonate market has weakened, with a significant monthly decline. As of September 20th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 130000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.7% from 156000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. This round of price decline is not caused by a single factor, but rather the result of the resonance of multiple negative factors such as changes in inventory data, differentiation of supply and demand expectations, fine-tuning of terminal demand, and tightening macro environment.
Inventory data adjustment
After the recent update of industry inventory statistics samples, the overall inventory scale of the market has significantly increased. The newly added inventory has effectively eased the tight spot market pattern in the early stage, completely breaking the low inventory support logic that the market relied on before. The market’s optimistic expectations for the long-term demand for lithium carbonate have rapidly cooled down, driving down prices.
The tightening of macro financial environment
As a core energy metal, the price trend of lithium carbonate is highly linked to macro liquidity. The expectation of tightening overseas monetary policy is heating up, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates continues to rise, suppressing the overall valuation of base metals. Against the backdrop of global liquidity tightening, new energy metals including lithium carbonate are generally under pressure, and external macro negative factors and negative factors in the industry are forming a combined effect, driving prices to continue to decline.
Double increase in supply and demand
On the supply side, the increase in overseas lithium ore imports continues to be released, and lithium ore sources from Zimbabwe and other places are gradually arriving at the port. Coupled with the steady release of production capacity by domestic lithium salt enterprises and the resumption of work and production on pre maintenance production lines, the overall supply capacity of the industry continues to improve. Data shows that domestic lithium carbonate production achieved both month on month and year-on-year growth in August, and the trend of loose supply side in the industry is gradually emerging.
The demand side exhibits strong short-term resilience, forming a clear contrast with weak futures sentiment. In August, the domestic demand for lithium carbonate consumption maintained high-speed growth, achieving significant increases both month on month and year-on-year. Entering September, the traditional peak season effect of the power battery industry continues to emerge, and battery companies maintain a steady growth rate in overall production, with sufficient efforts to meet the demand for lithium carbonate. In the segmented fields, the production capacity of the lithium iron phosphate industry chain continues to climb, the operating rate is steadily increasing, and the output continues to grow, effectively offsetting the negative impact of the decline in production of ternary cathode materials. The overall market spot consumption has not shown significant weakness.
Looking ahead to the future, the lithium carbonate market will still be in a continuous game between real fundamentals and long-term expectations. In the short term, after adjusting inventory samples, the shortage pattern of spot goods has eased, coupled with the suppression effect of high market warehouse receipts on recent contracts, and prices are likely to continue a weak and volatile trend. However, from the perspective of core fundamentals, the core logic of the market’s “strong reality” has not been overturned, and the trend of continuous destocking in the industry is expected to continue until the end of the year, with stable support for essential needs.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices first fell and then rose. As of September 18th, copper prices were reported at 110235 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.18% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 37.72%.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 255900 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 5.4% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September this week has risen to over 87%, and the center of gravity between US bond rates and the US dollar has shifted upward, which has formed a short-term pressure on copper prices. Although the new PMI orders of the domestic manufacturing industry are above the boom and bust line, fixed assets investment continues to decline, the momentum of domestic demand repair is weak, and the macro overall is empty. The negative correlation between copper prices and the US dollar has temporarily weakened, and the market’s pricing focus has shifted more towards the fundamentals of the industry itself.
Supply side: The spot TC of copper concentrate has fallen to a historical extreme low of about -210 US dollars/ton, and the shortage pattern in the mining side continues to deepen. Chile and Peru’s production recovery is weak, with a significant year-on-year contraction in domestic arrivals, and significant pressure on raw material costs for smelters. Spot smelting profits have deteriorated to a nearly one-year low, and domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decline more than expected due to raw material constraints. The supply side’s hard constraints provide medium-term support for copper prices.
Demand side: Downstream is gradually entering the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”, with copper pole and cable operating rates rebounding month on month, but high copper prices have significantly suppressed traditional sectors. The investment in the power grid supports consumption, and the demand for copper in AI data centers and new energy is growing rapidly, forming a structural hedge. The differentiation of copper processing structures has intensified, with copper strips and foils continuing to grow rapidly, while traditional copper rods and tubes are relatively weak.
Influencing factors:
The core variable lies in the official decision of the US refined copper 232 tariff at the end of September. The market had previously bet on imposing tariffs, causing COMEX inventory to remain significantly high; If tariffs are implemented as scheduled, the tight supply situation in non US regions will continue; If it fails, there is a risk of a large amount of inventory outflow from the United States, which will have a negative impact on copper prices. The path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the degree of fulfillment of domestic peak season demand also constitute a dual disturbance.
In summary, the deep negative value of TC in the mining sector constitutes a hard cost support for copper prices, and the low-level depletion of domestic social inventory strengthens the supply vulnerability of non US markets; However, the expectation of tightening macro liquidity and the uncertainty of tariff policies have suppressed the short-term volatility of copper prices, which is mainly determined by the game between the two. After the implementation of tariffs, the risk of low inventory in non US regions will be further highlighted, and the focus of copper prices is expected to gradually shift in the fourth quarter.

This week, the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market continued to operate at a high level. As of September 17th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid was 16600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
On the raw material side: The price of raw fluorite is running strong, and holders are reluctant to sell at high prices, which provides strong cost support for hydrofluoric acid. The sulfuric acid end continues to weaken, and the cost support effect is significantly weakened. Under the hedge of two major raw materials rising and falling, the overall production cost of hydrofluoric acid remains high. As of September 17th, the benchmark price of fluorite is 3700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.25% compared to the beginning of this month (3618.75 yuan/ton).
On the other hand, some of the parking and maintenance equipment in the early stage has not fully resumed production, and the regional supply situation is still tight. Many enterprises have exceeded their orders, and the circulation of spot goods for individual orders is limited. But the overall operating rate is about 48.73%, slightly higher than the previous period, and the supply shortage has eased compared to the previous period. Demand side: downstream negative signals increase. The refrigerant industry has a downward trend in production starting in September, with gradually decreasing consumption. The procurement of hydrofluoric acid is mainly based on essential needs. There has been no significant increase in demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, electronic grade hydrofluoric acid, and pharmaceutical intermediates, making it difficult to increase overall volume.
Market forecast: Analysts predict that the prices of sulfuric acid and fluorite on the raw material side will rise and fall, while the cost side will continue to support hydrofluoric acid. Downstream demand will be weak, with rigid procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the domestic market for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the short term. More attention should be paid to the raw material end and the implementation of downstream refrigerant enterprise maintenance.

Market trend
The PA6 spot market has been consolidating at a high level in the past week (September 9-15). On September 9th, the benchmark price of PA6 was reported at 14500.00 yuan/ton, and the price remained high during the week, with mainstream manufacturers significantly raising their prices; Technical indicators show directional differentiation of the three mean differences, presenting a bullish signal of retracement under volatile market conditions, with prices in the high range of 60 day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles.
influencing factors
Cost side: Upstream pure benzene prices are running at a high level. In the second week of September, Sinopec raised the weekly closing price of caprolactam by 520 yuan/ton to 14480 yuan/ton, resulting in a significant increase in raw material costs and strong cost support for PA6. The polymerization factory has a strong willingness to raise prices.
Supply and demand side: Some of the caprolactam units are undergoing maintenance, and the overall supply of raw materials is tight. The PA6 polymerization unit is operating at a relatively stable level, and the market spot increment is limited. The inventory pressure of factories and traders is not high, and the holding merchants have a strong reluctance to sell and a weak willingness to ship at low prices. Downstream textile and spinning enterprises on the demand side urgently need to follow up, but they have resistance to high slice prices. The release of textile orders at the end of the “Golden September” peak season fell short of expectations. Most downstream enterprises mainly consume their own inventory and replenish inventory on demand, with weak willingness to actively stock up in large quantities. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is average.
Future forecast
The PA6 market is expected to maintain a volatile and strong consolidation pattern in the short term in the future. The cost support brought by the high level of caprolactam still exists, and the atmosphere of multiple heads in the industrial chain is still present; However, the current full cycle price is at a high level, and the downstream acceptance capacity is limited. There is significant resistance to sustained and significant price increases, and it is necessary to focus on tracking the progress of caprolactam plant resumption, fluctuations in pure benzene prices, and the actual order landing situation of textile terminals.

1、 Price trend: The center of gravity shifts upwards, and the end is flat

Entering the second week of September (September 7th to September 14th), the melamine market showed a trend of “rising first and then stabilizing”. As of September 15th, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% from the beginning of this month (6175.00 yuan/ton).
From this week’s trend, the price was 6212.50 yuan/ton on September 7th, gradually rising in the following trading days. After breaking through to 6250 yuan/ton on September 10th, it entered a stable period. From September 11th to 14th, it remained stable at 6250.00 yuan/ton for four consecutive trading days, with zero daily increase or decrease. The overall market performance is stable, and the price center has shifted upward compared to the previous period.
2、 Moving average system: Long position arrangement, clear upward signal
From the price and moving average chart, it can be seen that the moving averages of each cycle this week show a clear bullish upward divergence feature: the 5-day moving average is located at the top, and the 10 day and 20 day moving averages are arranged downwards in sequence, all maintaining an upward slope.
The current 10 day moving average continues to operate above the 20 day moving average, with a positive moving average and maintaining an expanding trend. This is a typical continuation period after the moving average crosses, indicating that the early upward signal has been confirmed and short-term bulls dominate. However, it is worth noting that in recent days, the current price moving average has been in line with and leveled off the 5-day moving average, indicating a short-term stalemate at the 6250 yuan/ton level.
3、 Position and cycle: high in the short to medium term, still in the medium to low range in the long term
From the monitoring of location data, on September 14th, melamine was at a “high” level in the 10 day, 20 day, and 30 day periods, at a “medium high” level in the 60 day and 90 day periods, and remained at a “medium low” level throughout the year.
This indicates that the current upward trend mainly reflects the strength in the short to medium term. The price has reached the upper edge of the recent range, but in a longer annual cycle, the current price has not yet reached historical highs, and there is still early bottom support below.
4、 Cost driven: urea surge provides support
The upstream raw material urea of melamine has shown stronger performance this month. On September 15th, the benchmark price of urea was 1800.00 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 4.96% compared to the beginning of this month (1715.00 yuan/ton), and the increase was significantly higher than that of melamine (1.21%).
The rapid rise of raw material urea has formed a significant driving force on the melamine market from the cost side, which is the core logic for the shift of melamine price center and the maintenance of strength this week.
5、 Future prospects
Overall, driven by the rise in urea prices on the cost side, melamine achieved a price increase this week. The bullish arrangement of the moving average system confirms a strong pattern, and the market is operating steadily as a whole.
In the short term, with cost support and the upward momentum of the moving average, melamine is expected to maintain a high consolidation level; However, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in momentum after the continuous flattening of prices. If the difference between the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average narrows (the moving average shrinks), we need to be alert to the adjustment signals brought by the downward crossing of the moving average. In the medium to long term, as the market remains at a mid to low level for one year, the overall valuation of the market has not shown extreme overvaluation. The subsequent trend will rely more on the sustainability of the raw material side and the follow-up of downstream demand.