This month (7.1-7.31), the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose at a high level. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 391410 yuan/ton, and as of July 31, the average market price was 426660 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.01%.

In July, the tin market experienced a roller coaster ride of rising, falling, and then rebounding, with significantly increased price fluctuations. Analyze the trend of tin prices in July by combining technical and fundamental factors.
supply side
Supply side constraints persist. The progress of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar has fallen short of expectations, and the rainy season has suppressed shipments from the mining end. As a result, the production capacity can only be restored to the top four to 50% of the shutdown throughout the year. Indonesia’s export quotas continue to tighten. Although the processing fee for tin concentrate has slightly increased, the global reserves of tin ore resources continue to shrink, and the tone of tight balance in the mining sector has not changed.
Demand side
Presenting structural differentiation. AI computing power and semiconductor solder demand provide long-term incremental growth, with solder accounting for over 40% of tin consumption over the long term. However, July and August are the traditional off-season for consumption, and downstream consumers have a clear fear of high prices, which suppresses purchasing volume.
Inventory end
The inventory side is the most crucial bullish variable for July. As of July 31st, LME tin inventory has dropped to an extremely low level of 6010 tons, while the previous period’s tin inventory was 4341 tons on July 31st. Global explicit inventory is at a historical low, and there is a tight supply of deliverable goods. According to a research report by Guojin Securities, the hidden inventory of tin ingots is gradually drying up, and the low inventory pattern provides strong bottom support for tin prices.
comprehensive analysis
Tin prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term under the support of low inventory and tight mining conditions. But the upward space is limited by the capacity of the demand side. The current price is at a historical high, and downstream solder companies tend to purchase according to orders and have limited willingness to stock up. The inhibitory effect of high prices on demand is gradually becoming apparent. It is expected that the supply and demand will show a balanced and loose pattern in the second half of the year, and there is a lack of driving force for tin prices to reach new highs.
Overall, tin prices are likely to remain high and fluctuate widely in August, with a reference range of 410000-435000 yuan/ton. If AI and semiconductor orders are concentrated in the third quarter, demand narrative may once again dominate the market; On the contrary, if the macro bearish fermentation or Wa State’s resumption of production exceeds expectations, there is a risk of correction. In the low inventory pattern, attention should be paid to every opportunity for a pullback.

The magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region has slightly increased, with an average market price of 15950 yuan/ton as of now, and an average price of 15850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 0.63%.
This month’s market analysis

In July, the domestic magnesium ingot market showed an overall operating pattern of “first suppression, then rebound, and low bottom grinding”. At the beginning of the month, the price hovered around 15850 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, it fell to around 15700 yuan/ton due to the drag of traditional off-season demand. At the end of the month, it stabilized and rebounded to 16000 yuan/ton due to cost support and supply contraction.
Fundamentals: The loose supply and demand pattern has not changed, and cost support is building the bottom
On the supply side, some magnesium plants in the main production areas arranged for high-temperature season maintenance and reduced production in July, resulting in a short-term supply contraction. However, the companies that stopped production for maintenance in the early stage have gradually resumed production, and the overall market supply has not shown a significant contraction; The inventory in the factory has accumulated slightly, and the pressure of magnesium factory shipments still exists.
The demand side continues to show weakness. July and August are the traditional off-season for consumption in the magnesium industry, with downstream terminals only maintaining essential purchases without centralized replenishment or new orders; In terms of overseas markets, customers in Europe, America and other regions have entered the summer vacation period, and foreign trade orders have significantly declined. The simultaneous weakening of internal and external demand is the core factor suppressing the rebound of magnesium prices.
The cost side constitutes the strongest bottom support currently. The current magnesium price has fallen to a nearly 7-month low, and magnesium factories in the main production areas have long-term production and sales inversion, resulting in losses of hundreds of yuan per ton. The comprehensive cost rigidity of dolomite, blue charcoal, ferrosilicon, electricity, labor, and environmental maintenance has become prominent, and the willingness of factories to lower prices and ship has significantly decreased. Cost support has become the core factor that makes it difficult for prices to continue to fall deeply.
Future forecast
Short term narrow range oscillation, trend rebound still needs to wait for demand signals. The magnesium market is likely to continue its consolidation trend in August, with a slight upward shift in price focus due to seasonal demand recovery. However, the reversal of trend still needs to wait for substantial improvement in fundamentals.

In July 2026, the domestic price of 1 # antimony ingots continued to weaken, with an average price of 116500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 91750 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a cumulative decrease of 21.24% during the month. The market’s good news for the whole month is scarce, and the rebound in antimony prices lacks sustainability, resulting in significant differences in market participants’ mentality. Combined with the traditional off-season dragging down demand and the continuous influx of low-priced overseas goods, the downward trend is driven by fundamental pressure.

Supply side:
The loose circulation of global antimony resources, the continuous existence of low-priced sources in overseas markets, the expectation of overseas production capacity adjustment, and the independent development plans of key mineral resources in various countries continue to suppress market expectations. The overall supply level of imported raw materials remains relatively high. Although the export of some overseas raw materials has tightened, imported goods continue to flow into the domestic market, and the market circulation of goods is relatively sufficient. There was a significant fluctuation in warehouse receipts during the delivery stage of the month, but this change was only a transfer of circulation within the market, and the goods did not enter the end consumer sector. The overall inventory of the industry did not receive substantial destocking, making it difficult to form effective supply support.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. June is the off-season for traditional consumption of antimony products, and the overall market consumption atmosphere is sluggish, with weak overall support for demand
Antimony oxide: The downstream market of traditional antimony oxide has shown weak performance, and the flame retardant industry has entered the traditional consumption off-season. The operating level of terminal industries has generally declined. Downstream manufacturers tend to adopt a cautious procurement strategy, often adopting an on-demand purchasing model, only maintaining rigid production materials, and lacking centralized replenishment actions. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the increase in orders is limited, making it difficult to transmit upward and drive the increase in raw material procurement. The driving force for the consumption of antimony ingots is relatively weak.
Photovoltaic: As the main downstream sector of antimony oxide, photovoltaic glass is still in a period of capacity contraction in the industry as a whole. Most production lines continue to implement cold repair plans, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate is at a low level. Although some production lines resumed production during this period, which brought some emotional boost, it was not enough to change the overall trend of industry production reduction. The game between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain continues, and the price suppression behavior at the component end makes it difficult for glass companies to implement their price increase plans. The overall shipment of photovoltaic glass has not shown significant improvement, and the corresponding increase in antimony raw material consumption is limited. Emerging demands such as semiconductors and batteries are still in the cultivation stage and cannot make up for the demand gap in traditional industries in the short term.
Market forecast:
The short-term market is still constrained by the off-season atmosphere, making it difficult for terminal demand to improve rapidly, and antimony ingot prices are likely to maintain a weak operating pattern. After a sustained decline, production costs will become an important price support line, and the market’s focus is gradually waiting for the expected improvement in demand brought by the traditional peak season in the third quarter. The subsequent market trend requires tracking the scale of overseas raw material inflows and changes in domestic raw material supply; On the other hand, observe the stocking pace of downstream industries. If there is a contraction in raw material supply, coupled with the orderly release of downstream peak season demand, antimony prices are expected to usher in an opportunity for stabilization; If external sources continue to flood in and terminal demand does not recover as expected, the weak market pattern may continue.

1、 This week’s market summary: Stop falling and rebound, strong upward trend

This week (July 21-27, 2026), the domestic melamine market experienced a significant “V-shaped” reversal. In the early stage, the market continued to experience weak fluctuations, with prices hovering at low levels; Until the weekend (July 27th), the market experienced a strong outbreak, successfully ending the continuous decline and achieving a rebound from the decline.
As of July 27th, the benchmark price of melamine soared to 6125.00 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 2.08% compared to the previous trading day (6000.00 yuan/ton). From a monthly perspective, the current price has increased by 1.24% compared to the 6050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, indicating a significant rebound in market sentiment.
2、 Trend feature analysis: Breakthrough after bottoming out consolidation
Looking at this week’s price trend chart, the price of melamine showed a slow downward trend from July 21st to 26th, with the 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average falling synchronously. The price remained suppressed within a narrow range of 6000-6025 yuan/ton, oscillating and bottoming out.
The turning point occurred on July 27th, when spot prices surged and broke through the 6100 yuan/ton mark in a single day. The red 10 day moving average in the chart hit its lowest point on July 26th and quickly rose sharply on July 27th, forming a convergence or even upward trend with the blue 20 day moving average, indicating strong short-term bullish power and sufficient rebound momentum.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, after several days of bottoming out, the melamine market successfully achieved a breakthrough this weekend. The technical signal of “moving average crossing” resonates with the fundamental rebound, greatly boosting market confidence in the short term. It is expected that under the support of demand and market sentiment, the price of melamine is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern. In the future, attention should be paid to the follow-up of downstream demand and changes in plant operating rates.

This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an average market price of 415370 yuan/ton on July 20th and 411670 yuan/ton as of July 24th, a decrease of 0.89%.

This week, tin prices showed a typical trend of “rising first and then falling”. At the beginning of the week, they were strongly boosted by geopolitical premiums and low inventory support, fluctuating at a high level in the middle of the week, and experiencing a fierce pullback over the weekend.
Macroscopic perspective
The macro level constitutes the main suppressive force. The non farm payroll data for May in the United States exceeded expectations and was strong. Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike sharply increased, and the US dollar index hit a 13 month high, putting overall pressure on US dollar denominated base metals. At the same time, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced two rounds of sharp declines, directly impacting the demand expectations for “computing power metals”, and the AI narrative that had previously supported the strengthening of tin prices was temporarily shaken.
Supply and demand side:
On the supply side, the mining side continues to be tight, but the margin has not deteriorated. Myanmar’s resumption of production fell short of expectations. The Wa State in Myanmar is currently in the rainy season (May to July), and the progress of resuming production in mining areas continues to be slow. The mining ban policy has not been substantially relaxed yet. The tight mining situation has not changed, but the rainy season is a seasonal factor, and the market has already had sufficient expectations for it. Indonesia’s exports have declined. The Indonesian government continues to crack down on illegal mining and tighten export regulations, resulting in a year-on-year decline in refined tin exports, further narrowing the global supply elasticity. The overall stability of domestic smelting production. The overall production of smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable, and the tight mining situation has not yet transformed into a significant reduction in refined tin production.
On the demand side, there is a strong sense of fear and wait-and-see attitude downstream. After the sharp rise in spot prices, downstream companies maintained their demand for essential purchases and on-demand access, while the procurement of solder and electronic enterprises above 410000 yuan/ton significantly slowed down. Being in the traditional off-season of consumption, the actual consumption intensity is not as expected. Relative preference for soldering orders. Soldering has stable demand support and strong support for tin prices; But the overall market situation is average for shipments, and some traditional consumer sectors still need to recover. AI needs to provide structural support. AI servers use four times more tin than traditional devices, driving the global tin market to experience a shortage of nearly 10000 tons for the fifth consecutive year. Green transformation, electrification, and the AI industry can help boost additional demand.
Inventory end
The simultaneous destocking of the two major exchanges has provided the strongest bottom support for tin prices due to low inventory.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high and wide range next week, with resistance in the range of 420000-425000 yuan/ton. Lower support: in the range of 400000 to 406000 yuan/ton. Low inventory and supply risk provide strong support around 400000 yuan/ton.

This week (7.19-7.24), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region rose, with an average market price of 15725 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15900 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.11%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:

Supply and demand side
Supply side maintenance and production reduction continue, but the incremental contraction is limited. Recently, some magnesium factories in the main production areas have arranged maintenance and production reduction during the high-temperature season, resulting in a contraction of short-term supply increment. The industry’s operating rate has significantly fallen from its high level, and many original magnesium smelting enterprises have entered a period of shutdown and maintenance. However, some manufacturers’ maintenance plans are concentrated in mid to late July, and as some companies resume production, production is expected to bottom out and stabilize. At the same time, there is a slight accumulation of inventory in the factory, and the pressure of magnesium factory shipments still exists.
The off-season effect on the demand side is significant, with both internal and external demand weakening synchronously. Currently, it is the off-season for traditional consumption in the magnesium industry, and downstream procurement demand continues to weaken. In terms of the domestic market, downstream only maintains essential procurement, overall transaction volume is light, and there is no centralized replenishment of inventory or new orders at the terminal. Traders tend to be cautious and focus on buying and selling at will, without actively hoarding goods. In terms of overseas markets, customers in Europe, America and other regions have entered the summer vacation period, and foreign trade orders have significantly declined. The magnesium alloy market also presents the characteristics of “weak follow-up of terminal demand and light trading volume”.
raw material end
Rigid cost construction for bottom support. The current magnesium price has fallen to a nearly 7-month low, and magnesium factories in the main production areas have long-term production and sales inversion, resulting in losses of hundreds of yuan per ton. The comprehensive cost rigidity of dolomite, blue charcoal, ferrosilicon, electricity, labor, and environmental maintenance is highlighted. Continued low-priced shipments will further expand operating losses, resulting in a significant decrease in the willingness of magnesium factories to lower prices and offer discounts for shipments. The cost side support has become the core factor that makes it difficult for the current price to continue to fall deeply.
integrated forecasting
Taking into account both fundamental and technical factors, the short-term magnesium price is expected to continue its pattern of low, weak stability, and narrow fluctuations. Before there is a substantial improvement signal on the demand side, it is difficult for magnesium prices to break out of the trend rebound market, and it is likely to continue to fluctuate and bottom out in the low range.

Since mid July 2026, domestic EVA has shown a stable and moderate upward trend According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the benchmark price of EVA was 10066 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.07% from 9766 yuan/ton on July 10. Several petrochemical companies have gradually increased their factory prices, with a single adjustment of 100-400 yuan/ton, but market transactions are mainly for small orders for essential needs.

The cost support is clear, and the ex factory price of ethylene in East China has been raised by 300 yuan/ton to 7900 yuan/ton. Coupled with the strengthening of crude oil geography, EVA cost support has strengthened. The supply side is shrinking significantly, with centralized maintenance of equipment and some production lines switching to general materials; In the first half of the year, the cumulative export of EVA was 258700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 84.65%, significantly digesting domestic inventory.
There is a significant differentiation between cold and hot demand on the demand side. Downstream photovoltaic film companies maintain a 65% -75% operating rate, moderately replenish inventory during low prices, and provide strong support for photovoltaic EVA; The foam and shoe material industries are in a traditional off-season, with insufficient terminal orders. Downstream factories generally use them as needed, resisting high priced raw materials and suppressing the upward space of general materials.
The EVA spread has been continuously declining from zero since late April, reaching a stage low in mid to late May, and the bearish pattern has reached its peak. Subsequently, the moving average began to recover and rebound. In mid June, it briefly hit the zero axis, forming a bullish signal. After a surge, it fell back again. At the end of June, it hit the bottom again, but the bottom clearly rose, forming a W-bottom pattern. In July, the moving average steadily rebounded again and continued to move above the zero axis. The overall trend shifted from deep bearish to volatile repair, with the bottom center of gravity moving upward. The bearish momentum continued to decline, and bullish strength gradually accumulated.
Looking ahead to the future, it is expected that the weekly settlement price of petrochemical plants will increase this week, and EVA will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend, but the upward space is limited. The mid August September peak season is approaching, and component production is expected to increase by more than 15% month on month. Coupled with the fact that maintenance equipment will resume production in late August, there is room for price recovery.

Silver prices fell sharply in June

Silver prices were weak in the early stages of July, but stopped falling and rose this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market price on July 22, 2026 was 14588.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.76% compared to the spot price of 14059.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (7.1); Compared to last Friday’s low (7.17) spot price of 13450 yuan/kg, it has increased by 8.46%.
The reasons for the strong operation of silver prices this week are as follows:
1. Weakening employment and manufacturing data in the United States, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts, and lower US dollar and US Treasury yields are favorable for precious metals;
2. In the early stage, the silver price was deeply oversold, and a large number of short positions were concentrated and closed, resulting in a rapid short-term rise in the market;
3. The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are recurring, and safe haven funds are pouring into silver;
4. The global silver supply and demand gap continues, with demand from the photovoltaic and new energy electronics industries providing bottom support;
5. The gold silver ratio is too high, the valuation of silver is too low, and arbitrage funds enter to make up for the increase.
The recovery market after the sharp decline
The current rise in silver belongs to the recovery market after a sharp decline. The marginal cooling of the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is currently the main macroeconomic logic. Federal Reserve officials acknowledge the marginal easing of inflation and have not released a strong signal of interest rate hikes, dispelling the extremely pessimistic expectation of “sustained high interest rates” in the market, and loosening the strongest bearish logic that previously suppressed silver.
After the silver price fell to a low level, a large number of speculative bears concentrated in the early stage to bet on the decline. When it hit a new low for the year, under the dual news of easing in the Middle East and weak data, bears concentrated their positions and left. Drive the silver price to stop falling and recover.
Future forecast
At present, the price trend of precious metals is more inclined towards a rebound rather than a trend reversal. Technically, it is still in a medium-term downward trend, and this time it is only for oversold repair. It has not yet broken through the key moving average pressure, and the sustainability still needs to observe the follow-up data of US inflation and employment. It is expected that the short-term prices of precious metals will continue to operate strongly, but the upward space is limited, and the future market will mainly experience strong fluctuations.

The continuous mutual attack between the United States and Iran has pushed up the dual risks of global energy channels, and international crude oil has once again risen. As of July 20th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $82.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $89.22 per barrel, setting a new high since mid June. Moreover, with the concentrated annual maintenance of PX facilities, the Asian PX production has dropped to a low level within the year, thus providing strong cost support. In addition, the maintenance of multiple main PTA facilities has caused the industry’s lowest operating rate to drop to 57%, resulting in tight supply and continuous inventory depletion, which has driven prices up all the way.

On the demand side, boosted by the rise in oil prices, the production and sales of polyester filament have increased in stages, and the terminal stocking volume has increased month on month. Downstream polyester product inventory has been reduced, which maintains the demand for PTA procurement. Currently, July is in the traditional off-season for textiles, with frequent high temperatures and extreme weather in summer leading to low operating rates for textile enterprises. However, the peak season orders for “golden September and silver October” usually begin to be concentrated from mid August, and there is no urgent need to replenish inventory in July. Terminal orders are differentiated, and knitting orders have slightly increased, while weaving orders remain quiet.
In the future, it is necessary to observe the further evolution of the US Iran conflict, slow completion of PX maintenance, and tight PX supply, so there is still support on the cost side. The textile market will gradually enter the autumn and winter order stocking window period. It is expected that downstream polyester production will slightly increase, and the demand for replenishment will increase, which will have a positive effect on prices in the current stage. But in August, PTA plants will restart one after another, with loose supply margins and concentrated release of supply increments, which may put pressure on prices. In the short term, the PTA market is still dominated by fluctuations. Since July, the domestic PTA market has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with an average spot market price of 6036 yuan/ton in East China, up 6.15% from July 2nd.

Recently, the formic acid market has experienced a sharp decline. As of July 20, the benchmark price for formic acid stood at 2,000 yuan per ton, down 13% from 2,300 yuan per ton recorded on July 13 of the previous week.

The initial phase operated smoothly overall, with prices remaining stable over the long term
In early mid-July, the domestic formic acid market operated smoothly overall, with prices maintaining a stable trend for an extended period. This was primarily supported by the dynamic equilibrium between supply and demand. Prior to this, the industry experienced a phased recovery in shipments, effectively reducing on-hand inventory and bringing overall corporate stockpiles to a moderate and reasonable level. The alleviation of inventory pressure provided a solid foundation for formic acid prices. Although the market remained stable, the industry had officially entered the traditional off-season for demand. Downstream end-users lacked concentrated restocking needs, and there were no new positive stimuli in the market, resulting in persistent lack of upward momentum. Consequently, the market remained in a stagnant and rigid pattern, with both upward and downward space constrained.
The persistent shortcomings on the demand side continue to emerge, leading to a shift in market trends
As time progressed, market bearish factors gradually accumulated, becoming the key to the trend reversal. The shortcomings on the demand side continued to emerge, the off-season effect intensified, and downstream enterprises maintained weak procurement intentions, sticking only to rigid demand-based purchasing models. The overall market trading atmosphere remained subdued, with persistent insufficient demand support. The sluggish demand directly led to a slowdown in corporate shipments, hindered the flow of goods within the market, and caused industry inventories to gradually accumulate. The balance between supply and demand was slowly disrupted, further exacerbating the downward pressure on the market.
Affected by the concentrated fermentation of negative factors, the domestic formic acid market experienced a significant decline in late July. In addition to the core drag of persistently weak terminal demand and rising inventory pressure, intensified market competition further amplified the price drop. Facing a sluggish market environment and mounting inventories, some formic acid producers adopted a discounting sales strategy to clear existing stock and capture market share. This disrupted the previously stable pricing system, driving the mainstream market prices to rapidly decline and ultimately resulting in a single-day drop of nearly 9%, marking the official entry of the market into a weak operational phase.
Market Outlook: In the short term, the current market lacks clear supportive factors, with downstream demand in the off-season struggling to recover quickly. The industry’s inventory digestion cycle remains lengthy, and the domestic formic acid market is likely to continue its weak consolidation trend, with potential for minor price fluctuations and declines. Subsequent market movements will primarily depend on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory digestion in the industry.