1、 Influence of raw materials

The production of melamine mainly relies on raw materials such as urea and sodium hydroxide. As of February 18th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1811.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.00% compared to the beginning of this month (1741.67 yuan/ton).

The prices of these raw materials are influenced by various factors such as international market supply and demand, transportation costs, and exchange rate fluctuations, resulting in significant uncertainty in their prices. When raw material prices rise, the production cost of melamine increases accordingly. In order to maintain profit levels, manufacturers often increase the selling price of melamine. Therefore, the significant increase in raw material prices is one of the important reasons for the stable and upward trend of the melamine market.

2、 Market performance

1. Price increase: With the rise in raw material costs, the market price of melamine also increases. There are differences in the prices of melamine in different regions, brands, and concentrations, but the overall trend is stable with an upward trend. As of February 18th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6287.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.92% compared to the beginning of this month (6230.00 yuan/ton).

2. Increased market demand: Despite the price increase, the market demand for melamine has not decreased, but rather increased. This may be due to an increase in demand for melamine in downstream industries, or a shift in demand caused by insufficient supply of substitutes.

3. Stable production capacity: Despite a significant increase in raw material prices, the production capacity of melamine has not been greatly affected and remains relatively stable. This is due to the continuous advancement of production technology and the improvement of production efficiency.

3、 Other factors

1. Policies and regulations: The government’s regulatory policies on food safety and environmental requirements for the chemical industry will also affect the price of melamine. With the strengthening of environmental policies, some small producers who do not meet environmental requirements have been eliminated, and market concentration has increased, which is conducive to large producers raising prices.

2. International trade environment: The recovery of the global economy and the improvement of the international trade environment are expected to further expand the import and export market for melamine. Domestic enterprises can increase sales and improve profitability through exports.

3. Downstream demand growth: Downstream consumption of melamine mainly consists of boards, impregnated paper, adhesives, and coatings, accounting for over 80% of the total. With the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous promotion of infrastructure construction, as well as the gradual recovery of the real estate and construction industries, the demand for melamine is expected to show an increasing trend.

4、 Future prospects

Although the melamine market is currently stable and rising, there is still uncertainty in the future. On the one hand, fluctuations in raw material prices may have an impact on the melamine market; On the other hand, changes in the domestic and international economic situation may also lead to changes in market demand and production capacity. Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, adjust procurement and sales strategies in a timely manner to cope with potential risks and opportunities.

In summary, the significant increase in raw material prices is one of the important factors driving the stable upward trend of the melamine market. Meanwhile, factors such as policies and regulations, international trade environment, and downstream demand growth have also had a positive impact on the melamine market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly increased in recent days (2.4-2.17). As of February 17, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market is around 17240 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38% from the pre holiday price of 16840 yuan/ton. High prices of raw materials after the holiday; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase slightly; After the Spring Festival, downstream production slowly increased, coupled with the volatile and strong market after the Shanghai Rubber Festival, driving the natural rubber spot market to slightly rise.

After the Spring Festival, production areas such as Vietnam and northeastern Thailand entered a period of suspension, and production areas in China are also in a period of suspension, with high raw material prices being consolidated. As of February 17th, the price of Thai glue is 66.50 Thai baht per kilogram.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of February 9, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 569000 tons, an increase of 16000 tons compared to the previous period.

Supply and demand side: After the Spring Festival, downstream tire production has been slow to increase, and the atmosphere of terminal buying is flat. Natural rubber is mostly purchased on a small order basis according to demand.

Market forecast: When domestic and foreign raw material prices stabilize at high levels, it will provide some support for natural rubber; But the slow increase in downstream construction and the continued increase in inventory at Tianjiao Port; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly experience high and narrow fluctuations in the short term.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on February 17th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 11220 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as February 1st. Compared with January 1st (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.02%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in recent times, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has continued to operate steadily and steadily. The overall volatility of the silicon metal spot market is not significant, and the performance within the market is relatively calm. As of February 17th, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # in East China is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is around 11300~11500 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is around 11000~11100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the performance of the silicon metal supply side is relatively stable, and the activity of downstream demand is boosted. Silicon companies mainly focus on stabilizing prices in their supply, and the performance of supply side concessions is relatively low.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand for metallic silicon has improved, and the overall inquiry atmosphere has increased compared to the previous period. Some downstream orders have been released one after another, and market demand transmission is gradually warming up.

In terms of raw materials: Currently, the performance of the raw material silica market is stable, and factories are gradually resuming shipments. Downstream demand for essential purchases is the main focus, and the supply side is slightly loose. At present, the reference price for low-grade silica ore exports in Yunnan region is around 340-350 yuan/ton. The reference price for high-grade silica ore export in Inner Mongolia is around 360-390 yuan/ton. The reference price for high-grade ore export in Hubei region is around 420-450 yuan/ton.

In terms of construction: Currently, the performance of metal silicon on-site construction continues to be in a differentiated state, with overall high construction rates for large enterprises and low construction rates for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market has improved, and the mentality of metal silicon industry players has been boosted. The transmission between supply and demand is gradually warming up. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate steadily and positively, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

This week (2.9-2.14), the nickel market moved downwards and fluctuated at a low level. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, on February 14th, spot nickel was reported at 125650 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.37%.

Macroscopically: Disruption of tariff policies. On February 10th, the United States announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the United States, causing an increase in multi metal prices but not boosting nickel prices.

Supply side: It is expected that China’s refined nickel production in February will be 35000 tons, an increase of 4.1% month on month and 43.1% year-on-year. In addition, new projects such as Zhongwei Group are gradually climbing production, and the pattern of nickel surplus will continue. Domestic and international inventory continues to accumulate. On February 14th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 29117 tons, a decrease of 348 tons during the week; On February 14th, LME nickel inventory was 180900 tons, an increase of 5190 tons for the week.

Demand side: Insufficient consumption growth in the short term, lower than expected resumption of work and procurement by downstream enterprises, or intensified price trend pressure, and wait-and-see sentiment may continue. Steel mills continue to deliver, but demand is weak and inventory backlog has slightly increased. On February 14th, the reference price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the beginning of the month, with a narrow range of fluctuations.

Market forecast: The pattern of nickel surplus continues, demand is insufficient, macro sentiment is disturbed, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the low range.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8295 yuan/ton on February 6th and 8258 yuan/ton on February 13th, with a price drop of 0.44% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9900 yuan/ton on February 6th and 10100 yuan/ton on February 13th, with a price increase of 2.02% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8382 yuan/ton on February 6th and 8375 yuan/ton on February 13th, with a price drop of 0.09% during this period.

After the year, the trend of the polyethylene market has fluctuated, with linear products running weakly, high-pressure products trending strongly, and low-pressure products fluctuating and adjusting, with little change. The pressure on the supply side is still present, with an increase in spot goods on the market. Manufacturers and traders are mainly reducing prices for shipments, but news of some equipment being converted and shut down has led to a tentative increase in the prices of high-pressure products. After the holiday, downstream production resumed slowly, order follow-up was limited, and demand side support was limited. US commercial crude oil inventories continue to rise, international oil prices have fallen, and cost support has weakened.

In February, there were relatively few maintenance visits to the polyethylene plant, mainly short-term minor repairs. The overall supply is expected to remain high, and there are plans for commissioning and production of the new plant, ensuring sufficient supply; Starting from mid to late February, with the gradual increase in downstream factory operating rates, demand will gradually be released, and the supply growth rate may exceed the demand growth rate. In the short term, it is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate weakly due to fluctuations.

Recently (2.4-2.11), the market for butadiene rubber has been weak and slightly declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 11, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from the pre holiday price of 15000 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber is still supported; Shunding rubber production continues to decline, with less pressure on the supply side; Downstream construction is still at a low level after the holiday. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have remained stable, and there has been a weak adjustment in merchant offers.

Recently (2.4-2.11), the price of butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 11th, the price of butadiene was 12637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% from the pre holiday price of 12662 yuan/ton.

Recently (2.4-2.11), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has remained at a low level, with overall construction around 6.20%.

Demand side: After the Spring Festival, downstream tire production has been low, and the atmosphere of terminal buying is flat, resulting in relatively light demand for butadiene rubber.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will stabilize at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber will continue to be strongly supported; Downstream production is low after the holiday, and market transactions remain weak; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, but with the restart of the Haopu unit and the trial run of the new unit at Yulong Petrochemical after the holiday, the supply side is expected to increase in the later period. Overall, under the influence of demand and supply, it is expected that the Shunding rubber market will consolidate weakly at a high level in the later period.

1、 Market situation

Recently, the market price of melamine has shown some stability and a slight upward trend. On the one hand, this is because although the equipment that undergoes maintenance every ten days has been restarted one after another, the influx of goods into the market has led to an increase in market supply, which takes time. On the other hand, the capacity utilization rate in Shanxi and Hebei regions has always been at a low level, and the overall supply of northern enterprises is not high. Therefore, overall, melamine companies have a strong willingness to raise prices, and prices are stable while exploring price increases. As of February 11th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6237.50 yuan/ton, an increase of -0.11% compared to the beginning of this month (6230.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Influencing factors

1. Raw material cost: Recently, there has been a slight increase in urea prices, with some factories in certain regions raising their quotes by 10-20 yuan/ton. However, the continuous follow-up of demand remains a key factor in determining price trends.

2. Market demand: The demand for melamine in downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings is an important factor affecting market prices. With the recovery of the economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, the demand for melamine in these industries may gradually increase, thereby driving up market prices. Especially with the recovery of the real estate, construction, and furniture industries, the apparent demand for melamine has rebounded, further supporting market prices.

3. Supply situation: The production capacity of melamine is relatively stable, and production enterprises in the industry usually adjust their production scale based on market demand and raw material costs. In a relatively stable supply situation, market prices are more likely to remain stable. However, with the strengthening of environmental policies and the adjustment of production capacity structure, some old and outdated production capacity has been eliminated, and the newly added capacity is mostly large-scale production facilities with low energy consumption and low pollution, which may also have a certain impact on market prices.

3、 Future prospects

Short term (1-2 months): The market may experience narrow fluctuations under the game of cost and weak demand, with a slight upward shift in the price center of gravity, but insufficient motivation to break through the previous high.

Mid term (3-6 months): Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of real estate policy implementation and the sustainability of the export market. If domestic demand significantly recovers or exports increase, prices may experience a temporary rebound; On the contrary, there may be a pressure callback.

Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, formulate reasonable business strategies to cope with potential market risks and seize development opportunities. Meanwhile, increasing R&D investment and technological innovation is also an important way to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises.

In summary, the recent trend of stable and rising melamine market is the result of multiple factors working together. In the future, with the increase of market demand and the integration and upgrading within the industry, the melamine market is expected to continue to maintain stable growth.

After the holiday, the weekly settlement price of caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon yarn, increased, and the market for high-speed spinning of nylon PA6 chips saw a narrow rise, with increased cost support; The operating rate of most nylon filament manufacturers’ equipment is still at a low level, and the on-site supply continues to decrease. The inventory levels of various manufacturers have slightly increased, and the performance of the supply side is average; The downstream factories plan to resume work slightly later, and some manufacturers mainly execute early orders, with low enthusiasm for replenishment and no significant improvement in demand. Overall, the upstream raw material market continues to rise, with decent cost support. Nylon filament and downstream manufacturers are mostly on vacation, with low trading activity in the market, resulting in a slight increase in nylon filament market prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament fell weakly after the holiday. As of February 9, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province is 16660 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.60% compared to the pre holiday price; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14275 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the pre holiday price. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17300 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 0.44% compared to the pre holiday price.

The center of gravity of raw materials is increasing

In terms of cost, on February 10th, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly settlement price was implemented at 11450 yuan/ton (interest free acceptance for liquid superior products in June), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous week’s settlement price., The market price trend of high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips is upward, and the price center of raw materials in the market has increased during the week, providing certain favorable support for the nylon filament market.

Supply and demand: The operating rate of most nylon filament manufacturers’ equipment is still at a low level, and currently the nylon filament market is operating at around 5.90%. The on-site supply continues to decrease, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers have slightly increased. The performance of the supply side is average; The downstream factories plan to resume work slightly later, and some manufacturers mainly execute early orders, with low enthusiasm for replenishment and no significant improvement in demand. Overall, the upstream raw material market continues to rise, and the cost side support is still acceptable. Nylon filament and downstream manufacturers are mostly on vacation, and the trading activity in the market is not high.

Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the raw material pure benzene has been consolidated at a high level, and the market supply of caprolactam is normal. Downstream demand follow-up is the main trend, and some operators have a positive attitude. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will steadily rise in the short term.

Supply and demand side: With the end of the holiday, nylon filament manufacturers may gradually resume work, and there is a possibility of a gradual increase in on-site supply. It is expected that the supply of nylon filament in the market will increase narrowly in the short term; The downstream market plans to resume work relatively late, which limits the increase in demand for nylon filament market and makes it difficult for the demand side to show significant improvement. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side support for short fiber nylon filament market will be insufficient.

Overall, the short-term nylon filament raw material caprolactam spot market and PA6 slicing market may continue to rise, with cost support remaining. Downstream manufacturers may gradually resume work and purchase according to demand. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market price will be cautiously upward, with an expected increase of 100-300 yuan/ton.

This week (February 2-8, 2025), the price center of the adhesive short fiber market has slightly increased. As of February 8th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13660 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.74% compared to the pre holiday price. The upstream raw material market prices remain firm, with cost support remaining. The inventory level in the market is not high, and coupled with the increasing operating load of downstream yarn factories, businesses have sufficient confidence in the future. Some adhesive short fiber manufacturers have raised their prices, resulting in an increase in high priced sources in the market and a slight increase in adhesive short fiber market prices.

In terms of cost, there has been little change in the market price of the main raw material for viscose staple fiber dissolution slurry this week, while the market price of auxiliary liquid alkali has risen at a high level. The market price of sulfuric acid has fallen narrowly, and the center of gravity of the raw material market price has shifted upward. The average production cost of viscose staple fiber has slightly increased.

Supply and demand: From the supply side perspective, there is little fluctuation in the supply of adhesive short fibers in the market after the new year, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers are not high. There is currently no sales pressure, and the supply side provides some upward momentum for the market. The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market is not high, and prices are mainly stagnant. Downstream yarn manufacturers plan to resume work slightly later. Although adhesive short fiber manufacturers have raised their quotes and increased on-site inquiries, actual transactions are limited and demand side performance is poor.

Market forecast:

The main material dissolution slurry market and auxiliary material liquid alkali market may remain strong in price, while the sulfuric acid market may still decline. It is expected that the cost of adhesive short fibers will remain stable next week. In the short term, the adhesive short fiber market is expected to operate stably, with little fluctuation in industry supply and low inventory levels on site, and there is currently no significant inventory pressure. Some downstream yarn factories mainly fulfill early orders and replenish urgently needed goods, while others plan to resume work later, making it difficult for the demand for adhesive short fibers to increase significantly in the market, and the demand side performance is average. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small fluctuations next week, with prices expected to be around 13600-13800 yuan/ton for acceptance.

1、 Market price overview

According to the latest market trends, the market price of melamine showed a slight downward trend after the holiday. There are differences in the prices of melamine from different brands and origins, but overall they reflect the characteristic of stable and decreasing market prices. For example, some traders provide quotes for melamine in Shandong region, some as high as 7100 yuan/ton, while others are as low as 5500 yuan/ton, but most quotes are concentrated between 6300 yuan and 7000 yuan/ton. As of February 7th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.48% compared to the beginning of this month (6230.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Market supply and demand relationship

1. Supply side: The supply of melamine in the market is relatively stable, but the deployment of new production capacity and inventory adjustment strategies have had a certain impact on market prices. The supply and demand pressure in the upstream raw material urea market is relatively high, with daily production maintained at a high level, and new facilities being put into operation one after another, which to some extent suppresses the price of urea and thus affects the production cost of melamine.

2. Demand side: The market demand for melamine is relatively weak. Although downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have a certain demand for melamine, overall growth is weak. In addition, the insufficient purchasing power of fertilizer distributors and low market activity have also led to a negative attitude from the demand side.

3、 Market Trend Analysis

1. Short term trend: In the short term, the market price of melamine may continue to maintain a stable and slightly declining trend. The price fluctuations in the raw material urea market, the introduction of new production capacity, and changes in downstream demand will all have an impact on market prices.

2. Long term trend: In the long run, the trend of the melamine market will be influenced by various factors. With the development of the economy and the improvement of residents’ living standards, the demand for melamine in downstream industries may change. Meanwhile, fluctuations in the raw material market, policy guidance, and overall industry capacity will have a profound impact on market prices.

In summary, the trend of stable and slightly decreasing prices in the melamine market after the holiday is the result of multiple factors working together. Enterprises should closely monitor market trends, strengthen inventory management, optimize product structure, and look forward to policy guidance to promote the healthy development of the market.