1. Trend Analysis

According to data monitored by Business Society, copper prices declined slightly this week, closing at 95,813.33 yuan per ton by the 20th, down 3.54% from the start of the week but up 17.52% year-on-year.
According to the weekly price trend chart from Business Society, copper prices have seen three declines and three increases over the past three months, with a slight drop this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories rose slightly, reaching 335,425 tons by the end of the week, up 7.65% from the beginning of the week.
Macro perspective: The overnight Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting delivered a strong hawkish signal, coupled with the sharp escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions, instantly freezing global risk asset sentiment.
Supply side: The resumption of production in major copper-producing countries such as Peru and Chile, combined with the commissioning of new mines in Africa, has shifted global copper concentrate supply from shortage to surplus.
Demand side: The traditional peak season of “Golden Three” did not arrive as expected, with cautious inquiries from downstream buyers and low but inconsistent procurement. The continuous deterioration in real estate data (new construction projects down 23.1%) directly dragged down cable and home appliance consumption.
In summary: Copper prices remain high year-on-year, which has dampened end consumption. Under the hawkish pressure from the Federal Reserve, financial attributes dominate pricing, leading to significant short-term adjustment pressure on copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will primarily experience a weak adjustment in the short term.

This week, the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market maintained a high level of consolidation and operation. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 19th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 13166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.77% compared to the previous month.

On the raw material side: The price of fluorite sulfuric acid, a raw material, has risen one after another this week, with strong support from the cost side. The continuous pressure of upstream costs has severely squeezed the profit margins of hydrofluoric acid production enterprises, and some enterprises are even in a loss making state. This fundamentally limits the downward space of hydrofluoric acid prices and has stimulated the market’s willingness to push up prices. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 19th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3475.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.28% compared to the beginning of this month (3431.25 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: Downstream demand is weak, and the acceptance of high priced raw materials is not high. Procurement is mainly based on rigid individual orders. Especially for some refrigerant models, the downward trend in production has led to insufficient follow-up on the procurement of hydrofluoric acid, making it difficult to effectively digest market supply. In addition, the hydrofluoric acid market has long been in a situation of oversupply, with many production enterprises producing according to orders, and the overall operating rate of the industry is not high. It is expected that anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will operate steadily in the short term.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite sulfuric acid is supported by high levels, while downstream demand is weak, mainly due to rigid demand procurement. The demand side support is insufficient, and the acceptance of high priced raw materials is not high. It is expected that the market price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will mainly consolidate in the short term. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

price trend
In the past week (March 11th to March 17th, 2026), the domestic PA6 market has shown an overall trend of high volatility and slight fluctuations. The mainstream focus of negotiations remains high, and the overall trading atmosphere is cautious. Actual transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and low-priced sources continue to be scarce. The market is in a stalemate with strong cost support and weak demand follow-up. On March 17th, the benchmark price of PA6 in Shengyi Society was 14033 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 3.22% from 14500 yuan/ton on March 11th.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
The price of caprolactam is directly driven by the linkage between pure benzene and crude oil. Recently, international oil prices have remained high due to the geopolitical situation, and the cost pressure on the raw material side continues to transmit downwards, directly pushing up the production cost of PA6 polymerization plants, and the profit margin of manufacturers continues to be compressed. According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of caprolactam has risen from 11787.50 yuan/ton to 12407.50 yuan/ton in the past week, with a weekly increase of 5.26%.
Supply side:
In the past week, the supply side of the PA6 industry has slightly relaxed, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. On the one hand, some of the PA6 polymerization units that underwent early maintenance have resumed production, coupled with improved supply of raw material caprolactam, resulting in a steady increase in the manufacturer’s operating load; On the other hand, there has been a gradual release of new production capacity in the industry recently, and the overall market supply has increased compared to the previous period.
In terms of demand:
In terms of downstream terminals, the textile and chemical fiber industry has fully resumed work, and the operating rate has steadily rebounded. However, the acceptance of high-level raw materials is limited, and the willingness to purchase goods is weak. They tend to replenish as needed and purchase as needed, without centralized replenishment or large-scale hoarding. The overall trading activity in the market is not high, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and insufficient transaction volume.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the PA6 market still operates around the core logic of cost support and supply-demand stalemate, with prices likely to remain high and narrow, and it is difficult to see significant fluctuations. Focus on the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil and caprolactam prices, as well as the recovery of downstream terminal orders.

This week, the domestic melamine market continued its strong upward trend, and under the combined effects of cost push, supply tightening, and enterprise price hikes, the price center has significantly shifted upward. Here is a detailed analysis of this week’s market trend:

1、 Price trend:
This week, the market price of melamine has risen more sharply than last week. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6625.00 yuan/ton on March 17th, an increase of 325 yuan in just five days compared to 6300.00 yuan/ton on Monday (March 10th), with a weekly increase of 5.16%. Compared with the 5970.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month (March 1st), the cumulative increase is 655 yuan, and the overall increase has expanded to 10.97%. This price level has also broken the recent market high.
From daily data, the price showed a continuous upward trend this week. On March 10th, it was reported at 6300.00 yuan/ton, and then quickly broke through the range of 6337 yuan to 6446 yuan between the 11th and 13th. Over the weekend, it accelerated to above 6550 yuan and reached a high of 6625 yuan today. The steep upward trend of prices clearly reflects the current strong market pattern.
2、 Cost, supply, and demand resonance
1. Cost side: The significant increase in upstream raw material prices this week is the most core driving force behind the rise in melamine prices. The recent geopolitical events in the Strait of Hormuz have hindered the import of methanol, a key raw material. Domestic methanol prices have risen by over 7% in a single day, directly pushing up the production cost of urea. As a direct raw material for melamine, the upward pressure on the price of urea is clearly transmitted along the “methanol → urea → melamine” industry chain. At the same time, the drastic fluctuations in international crude oil prices have provided strong cost support and risk premium for the entire chemical industry chain.
2. Supply side: While costs are rising, the supply side has not relaxed. Although the overall operating rate of the industry has fluctuated this week, it still remains relatively low, and the frequent start and stop of equipment has led to limited spot circulation in the market. Data shows that on March 16th, the utilization rate of melamine production capacity in China was 56.99%. Although there was a slight rebound compared to the previous period, some enterprises resumed production over the weekend while others experienced equipment shutdowns. This kind of ‘one goes and the other goes’ parking and resumption of production makes it difficult for the market supply to form stable expectations, and instead exacerbates the temporary tense situation.
In this context, the sentiment of production enterprises pushing prices and even being reluctant to sell has become increasingly strong. Entering this week, major manufacturers are still intensively raising prices
3. Demand side: The downstream sheet metal and molded plastic industries have fully resumed work after the holiday, forming a rigid demand support. A large number of construction sites across the country have started construction, driving the demand for building templates and playing a fundamental role in driving the demand for melamine. Although demand is not the main engine in this round of price increases, it provides a foundation for sustained price increases, allowing cost pressures to be smoothly transmitted downstream.
3、 Future prospects

Looking ahead to next week, it is expected that the melamine market will maintain a high and firm trend. On the supply side, companies generally have no inventory pressure, and some devices are still in a shutdown state, making it difficult for manufacturers to reduce their willingness to raise prices in the short term. On the cost side, the raw material urea market is expected to remain strong under the support of spring plowing demand, which will continue to provide bottom support for melamine.
However, market risks are also accumulating. As prices continue to rise, downstream companies’ willingness to chase after high prices may weaken, and their ability to accept high priced raw materials remains to be observed. There may be room for negotiation in some high priced transactions. It is recommended that market participants closely monitor the trend of raw material prices, the progress of restarting production facilities, and the actual order situation followed up by downstream.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market rapidly rose in the first half of March, with most spot prices of various brands showing significant increases. As of March 16th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16326.67 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+25.33% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In early March, the overall load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises first increased and then decreased. The load of the preliminary equipment has increased. As the middle of the month approaches, the overall average operating rate of the industry has dropped to around 85%, with an average weekly output of around 70000 tons. Due to the rapid digestion of social inventory in the first half of the month, the current production and sales pressure of aggregation factories remains at a relatively low level. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market rebounded in the first half of March. Affected by the sharp rise in international crude oil prices, phenol and acetone have risen significantly. Subsequently, it will boost the spot price of bisphenol A in China. At the same time, the supply increment of bisphenol A is limited, and at present, it actively supports the cost of PC. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the progress of new production capacity in the future.
On the demand side: The improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, and the load position of PC downstream factories is still average. However, due to the rise in international crude oil prices and logistics costs, as well as the resonance of commodity prices, there is a strong atmosphere of speculation in the PC market. Factories and merchants have significantly inflated their reports, and buyers not only need to replenish inventory, but also engage in some price chasing operations. The current price has risen to a relatively high level, and buyers are cautious in stocking up. Coupled with downstream inventory waiting to be digested after the holiday, buyers have weak willingness to continue building warehouses and have entered a wait-and-see stage. However, the local supply of goods in the market is tight, and spot prices remain firm. Overall, the demand side still provides sufficient support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In the first half of March, the domestic PC market saw a significant increase. Affected by the geopolitical situation, crude oil and related products in the petrochemical industry chain led the market, with upstream bisphenol A prices rising and consolidating, and the cost value quickly transmitted to PC. The load of domestic PC polymerization plants first increased and then decreased, and the supply in the future market slightly tightened. On site trading has shifted from explosive to calm, and buyers’ mentality has returned to caution. Buyers can take it as they please, and the operation is mainly based on small orders. It is expected that the PC market in the future will be deeply affected by the upstream market in the far end. It is recommended to closely monitor the dynamics in the Middle East.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the 13th, copper prices were reported at 100615 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 26.16%.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have risen slightly this week, with a decrease of 7 and an increase of 4 in the past three months.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased. As of the weekend, LME copper inventory was 312350 tons, up 6.15% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, although the February US CPI data met expectations, the uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts has pushed up crude oil prices, becoming a “new variable” for inflation. As of March 15th, Brent crude oil prices have soared to $98 per barrel, up 23% from early February, directly driving up global energy costs. The US bond market took the lead in responding: the two-year US bond yield hit 3.632%, a new five month high; Federal funds rate futures show that the expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has plummeted from 41 basis points to 32 basis points, and the market has even postponed the next rate cut to September.
Supply side: The overseas mining sector continues to experience disturbances, with leading institutions warning of an expanding supply gap. Domestic spot processing fees continue to run at negative values, further confirming the fact of a shortage in the mining sector and continuing to provide strong bottom support for copper prices. On the inventory side, LME copper inventory has continued to accumulate recently. Although the inventory increased slightly yesterday, the latest inventory rose to 312300 tons. However, domestic social inventory has slightly decreased, with electrolytic copper spot inventory of 577500 tons on March 12th, a decrease of 12300 tons from the 9th.
On the demand side: With the recent fluctuation of copper prices and the support of peak season expectations for buying, the prosperity of spot consumption has improved. The warehouse outflow volume increased during the week, and the arrival of domestic goods in some markets decreased, driving down inventory.
In summary, geopolitical conflicts are intertwined with macro risks, and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices may continue to limit the Federal Reserve’s room for interest rate cuts, putting pressure on market risk appetite and restraining the upward momentum of copper prices. However, the long-term demand support brought by energy transformation and AI data center construction, as well as the trend of domestic social inventory shifting towards destocking, provide bottom support for prices. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term, hovering around 100000 yuan/ton.

In early March 2026, the domestic phenol market experienced a roller coaster ride – from continuous surges to two days of sharp declines, with price fluctuations exceeding 2500 yuan/ton, catching upstream and downstream enterprises off guard.

This market trend is caused by the disturbance of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, severe fluctuations in costs, and the tug of war between supply and demand.
1、 Sudden: Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East ignites reasons for price increases
The rise in phenol prices in early March was mainly due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Iran’s announcement of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage responsible for 20% of global crude oil transportation, directly triggers global energy supply shortages.
A chain reaction immediately emerged: Brent crude oil surged in a single day, and this impact quickly spread to the upstream of the phenol industry chain. As the core raw materials of phenol, pure benzene and propylene have seen a significant increase in prices.
Data shows that phenol in East China has risen sharply for 6 consecutive working days, with some factories raising their prices for 8 days, reaching a maximum of 11050 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 30.53% compared to the end of February. The industry chain has also risen in sync, with downstream bisphenol A rising by as much as 35.80%. Market sentiment has been in a frenzy for a while.
On March 9th, the listing price of Sinopec North China phenol increased by 3400, with a cash withdrawal of 12000 yuan/ton executed. The listing price of Sinopec East China phenol increased by 3400, with a cash withdrawal of 12000 yuan/ton executed.
2、 Sudden decline: Over 2500 yuan in two days, terminal buying urgently brakes
The soaring market is ultimately difficult to sustain, and March 10th became the “turning point” of this round of market. On that day, crude oil prices surged and fell, directly driving core raw materials such as pure benzene and propylene to simultaneously decline. The cost support for phenol instantly weakened, and prices quickly plummeted from their peak.
On March 10th, the price of phenol in East China fell to 9000 yuan/ton; On March 11th, the price further dropped to 8500 yuan/ton, with a cumulative drop of over 2500 yuan/ton in just two days, and the previously accumulated gains were greatly eroded.
The drastic fluctuations in prices have directly undermined the purchasing confidence of the end market. Downstream factories are extremely sensitive to the weakening of high prices and quickly adjust their purchasing strategies. The buying trend shows an “emergency brake” situation – market trading is light, and most companies choose to wait and see, with only a small amount of essential purchases, making it difficult to increase trading volume. Market sentiment quickly shifts from fanaticism to caution.
3、 What is the potential for fluctuations in the future market when multiple variables are interwoven?
At present, the phenol market is in a recovery stage after a sharp rise and fall, and the future trend is dominated by multiple variables, with uncertainty still present.
From the perspective of core influencing factors, the first is the continuous disturbance of geopolitical risks: the EU has extended the flight of conflict airspace in the Middle East until March 18th, which means that the energy market will still be affected by geopolitical factors, which will then be transmitted to the phenol industry chain.
Secondly, there is a differentiation in the cost side: on March 11th, pure benzene rebounded after falling due to the impact of reduced production by petrochemical companies (with mixed fluctuations in the North and South markets), while propylene continued to fall, and phenol cost support showed differentiation. It is worth noting that the price difference between phenol and pure benzene in East China has increased from 500 yuan/ton at the end of February to around 1000 yuan/ton, and 500 yuan/ton may become a critical point for price fluctuations. Currently, there is a wide inversion in the phenol ketone market, and the willingness of enterprises to sell below has weakened.

There are also variables on the supply and demand side: on the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises remains at 89%, and some units are still undergoing maintenance/load reduction, supporting spot prices; On the demand side, downstream production of bisphenol A and phenolic resin is flat, and the acceptance of high prices by end-users is low. There is insufficient follow-up on buying orders. If demand cannot improve, there will still be downward pressure on prices.
In addition, the monthly average price also provides some support – it is expected that the monthly average price of phenol in March will remain above 8000 yuan/ton, and the space for further price decline is limited. The market is likely to rationally repair around the monthly average price.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, this round of phenol market is the result of the combined effects of geopolitical conflicts, cost transmission, and supply-demand imbalance, and the current market is in a rational regression stage. Without the influence of new sudden factors, the short-term price of phenol will fluctuate narrowly around the range of 8300-9200 yuan/ton, gradually easing the market inversion and seeking a new balance point between supply and demand.
For upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, the most prudent approach at present is “cautious operation”: upstream enterprises can adjust the pace of equipment operation reasonably based on inventory and profits; Downstream enterprises adhere to the principle of on-demand procurement and avoid stockpiling or empty inventory; The entire industry chain needs to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East, changes in raw material prices and terminal demand, and make timely adjustments.

Core viewpoint: This week (as of March 11th), the domestic melamine market has continued its strong upward trend. Under the combined effect of strong raw material costs, sudden tightening of supply, and concentrated price hikes by enterprises, the ex factory prices of major enterprises have risen by as much as 400 yuan/ton in a single day, and the market has a strong bullish sentiment.
1、 Price trend:
According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6337.50 yuan/ton on March 11th, a cumulative increase of 6.16% compared to early March (5970.00 yuan/ton). From the performance of the week, the cumulative increase in the past week has reached 3.05%, indicating a clear upward trend in price acceleration.
2、 Upward driving force:
1. Cost side:
The core driving force behind the current rise in melamine prices comes from the significant increase in upstream raw material costs. The recent geopolitical events in the Strait of Hormuz have hindered the import of methanol, which is the core raw material for melamine. The daily increase in domestic methanol prices has exceeded 7%, directly pushing up the production cost of urea. Urea, as a direct raw material for melamine, exerts clear upward pressure on prices along the “methanol urea melamine” industry chain, providing the lowest level of cost support for the rise in melamine prices.
2. Supply side:
At the same time as the cost increases, there is also a tense situation on the supply side. After the Spring Festival, some equipment maintenance has not been fully restored, and the market spot circulation itself is not high. Against the backdrop of tight supply, the market’s “buying up” sentiment has been ignited, further fueling price increases.
3. Centralized pricing by enterprises
March 9-10 has become a critical window period for this round of price increases, with major manufacturers significantly increasing their factory prices
This large-scale and significant price increase behavior, combined with the actual shutdown of individual devices, has led to tight short-term supply expectations in the market, with production companies selling without pressure and a rise in reluctance to sell, resulting in most companies suspending orders.
4. Demand side:
The downstream sheet metal and molding plastic industries have resumed work comprehensively after the holiday, forming rigid demand support. According to the analysis of China Board Network, the prices of chemical raw materials such as melamine have skyrocketed, coupled with the large number of construction sites starting construction nationwide and the high demand for building templates, the terminal sales prices have been continuously pushed up. Although demand is not the main engine of this price increase, it provides a “pass” for price increases, allowing cost pressures to be smoothly transmitted downstream.
3、 Summary
At present, the positive news of tightening supply has dominated market sentiment. After the “buy up” sentiment was ignited, the market was booming. Most companies have suspended acquiring orders, waiting for prices to continue rising. The rising cost of raw materials and the strong willingness of production enterprises to raise prices are expected to continue supporting the short-term market.
Short term prediction: It is expected that the melamine market will maintain a strong trend in the remaining time of this week, and there is still a possibility of further exploration. However, it should be noted that after the price increase, the actual downstream demand capacity still needs to be observed, and there may be room for negotiation for some high priced transactions. Investors need to closely monitor the restart progress of parking devices, the trend of raw material prices, and the actual situation of downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have fallen sharply recently. On March 10th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 730 points, a decrease of 32 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.51% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 169.37% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all declined. As of the 11th, the price of neodymium oxide was 865000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.49% in two days; The price of neodymium metal was 1.045 million yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 6.28%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 835000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.49% in 2 days; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.04 million yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 9.57%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 965000 yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 8.96%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 775000 yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 8.82%.
Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have fallen sharply, and the prices of core products have continued to decline, leading to a rapid cooling of the market atmosphere. The decline in rare earth prices did not lead to a rebound in transactions, but instead fell into a stalemate of “unlimited price reductions”. The purchasing willingness of downstream magnetic material enterprises continues to be sluggish, mainly focusing on long-term contract procurement for essential needs and low inventory operations, with few market-oriented zero order purchases; On the trade side, there is a phenomenon of concentrated discounts on shipments and the realization of profitable positions. Some holders are eager to cash in and actively lower prices, further exacerbating the downward pressure on prices.
1、 The supply side has shifted from tight to loose, and the expectation of market shortage has completely subsided
The transformation of the supply pattern is the core driving force behind the current downturn in the rare earth market. The supply contraction logic that previously supported the rise in rare earth prices is gradually collapsing, and the market supply of goods is becoming more relaxed. On the one hand, the domestic rare earth production capacity has been released in an orderly manner, and the separation indicators for mining and smelting have been steadily implemented. Leading enterprises such as Northern Rare Earth have maintained normal levels of production, and the supply of light rare earth raw materials is stable and sufficient, effectively ensuring the upstream supply of the industrial chain; On the other hand, overseas import channels have remained smooth, with rare earth imports steadily increasing year-on-year since the beginning of 2026. The continuous influx of overseas incremental sources of goods has fully offset previous market concerns about supply contraction in Myanmar and export controls in Vietnam. The supply side has rapidly shifted from a tight state to a supply-demand balance or even a slight easing, and prices have lost their core upward support.
2、 The demand side continues to be weak, and the downstream demand support is insufficient

As an upstream raw material, the price trend of rare earths is highly dependent on downstream industry demand, and the current weak performance of downstream demand has become a key factor suppressing the rare earth market. In the early stage, rare earth prices continued to operate at high levels, significantly driving up production costs in downstream fields such as permanent magnet materials, new energy vehicles, wind power, and consumer electronics. Downstream enterprises’ profit margins were squeezed, and their stocking pace was generally slowed down. They actively avoided the risk of high priced raw materials and shifted to on-demand procurement and light inventory operation mode, resulting in a significant decrease in demand for rare earth raw materials. Combined with March being the traditional off-season for consumption, the growth rate of new energy vehicle terminal sales has slowed down, the pace of wind power installation has entered a period of adjustment, the demand in the consumer electronics market has not shown a significant rebound, the transmission of terminal orders is weak, the operating rate of magnetic material enterprises has not met expectations, and the ability to digest rare earth raw materials continues to be insufficient. More noteworthy is the emergence of raw material substitution technologies in some downstream fields, with the gradual application of substitute products such as cerium iron alloys, further reducing the demand share of high-end rare earth raw materials. The overall performance of the demand side is weak, making it difficult to effectively support high rare earth prices.
3、 The market sentiment has collectively turned, and the realization of profit orders has intensified the downward trend
The rapid reversal of market sentiment has amplified the downward trend in rare earth prices. Previously, the price of rare earths surged rapidly in the short term, with a considerable cumulative increase. The market has accumulated a large number of short-term profit opportunities, and the willingness of funds to take profits is strong. After the price reached a high level, traders and speculative funds concentrated on cashing in profits, actively lowering prices and shipping, driving the market quotation to quickly decline, thereby triggering a rise in bearish expectations in the market.
4、 Outlook for the future: Short term weakness is difficult to change, and strategic support still exists in the medium and long term
In the short term, the weak pattern of the rare earth market is unlikely to show significant improvement. The loose situation on the supply side will continue, and the off-season effect of downstream demand has not yet subsided. The market’s wait-and-see sentiment is difficult to quickly reverse, and prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend. We will continue to seek a balance point between supply and demand. If downstream terminal demand fails to recover in a timely manner, coupled with the continued willingness of traders to ship, there is still room for further decline in rare earth prices. However, considering the support of upstream costs and the continued willingness of the industry to support prices, the probability of a significant drop is low, and the market will mainly experience a mild correction and consolidation.
In the medium to long term, the strategic value and essential properties of rare earths remain prominent. With the gradual recovery of demand in downstream fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power installation, and industrial motors, coupled with the continuous tightening of rare earth industry control, the expectation of strategic storage, and the recovery of overseas high-end manufacturing demand, the supply and demand pattern of rare earths is expected to tighten again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw material of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading. After the short-term negative factors are exhausted and market sentiment is restored, the rare earth market is expected to stabilize and rebound.

1、 Overview of Core Data

Since March, the price of propylene has started a unilateral upward trend. As of March 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 8817.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 37.54% compared to 6411.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of March. The price has shown a linear upward trend, and the market spot is tight, with high price transactions becoming normalized. Downstream demand mainly follows suit.
2、 The core logic behind the rise in propylene prices in March (driven by both Middle East geopolitics and domestic supply and demand)
1. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East:
As a core production area for crude oil and propane globally, as well as an important exporter of chemical products, the Middle East continues to ferment in this round of geopolitical conflicts, becoming a key external driver for the surge in propylene prices.
On the one hand, international crude oil and propane prices have risen significantly due to the geopolitical situation, and propylene, as the core product of refining and propane dehydrogenation, has seen a rigid increase in raw material costs, providing underlying support for price increases;
On the other hand, the shipping risks of key waterways such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, and the expected arrival of imported propylene at ports has tightened, resulting in increased transportation costs. Coupled with disruptions in the supply of chemical plants in the Middle East, market concerns about supply gaps have intensified, and the risk premium has significantly pushed up propylene prices.
2. Supply side:
The centralized maintenance of domestic propylene enterprises’ facilities has been implemented, and some facilities are operating at reduced loads. The effective supply in the market has significantly decreased, and the tight situation of spot resources has become prominent. Against the backdrop of restricted import supplementation, the contraction of the domestic supply side further exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance, becoming the internal core support for rapid price increases.
3. Demand side:
Downstream major industries such as polypropylene and epichlorohydrin continue to operate normally, with solid support for essential procurement. Downstream enterprises passively accept high priced sources of goods; Combined with strong bullish expectations in the market, the combination of essential purchases and moderate inventory replenishment has formed a sustained buying force, driving prices to continue to rise. As of March 10th, the benchmark price of Business Society PP (wire drawing) was 9126.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.97% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.33 yuan/ton).
As of March 10th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 10516.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.46% compared to the beginning of this month (8000.00 yuan/ton).
3、 Future prospects
In the short term, there is still uncertainty in the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The cost support of crude oil and propane has not dissipated, and the tight supply of domestic propylene is difficult to alleviate in the short term. Downstream demand continues to follow up, and propylene prices are likely to remain high, with intensified high-level fluctuations.
Special attention should be paid to the evolution of the situation in the Middle East, the arrival of imported propylene at ports, and the progress of domestic plant restart. If geopolitical sentiment eases and supply recovers, there is a risk of high price correction.
IV. Summary
The 38% surge in propylene prices in March is the result of cost and import disruptions caused by Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, coupled with domestic supply contraction and downstream demand follow-up. The market presents a strong trend driven by cost and supply-demand mismatch, and the subsequent geopolitical situation and supply recovery progress will dominate the price trend.