1、 Price trend
|Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)
According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in November. On November 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5844 yuan/ton. On November 29th, the average price was 5698 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 2.5% during the month.
2、 Market analysis
The PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in November. In the first half of this month, the preference for futures market trends drove up the confidence in the spot market. PVC spot prices rose, but in the first half of the month, upstream calcium carbide market prices significantly declined, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange became weak, leading to a decline in market prices. In the middle of the month, be cautious and wait, as the PVC spot market lacks confidence and prices fluctuate and decrease. In the latter half of the month, the futures market was mainly in a downward trend, with the spot market being heavily suppressed and prices falling. Downstream demand for purchases was the main focus, with on-demand purchases available. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5430-5870 yuan/ton.
On November 28th, international crude oil futures prices rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.41 per barrel, with an increase of $1.55 or 2.1%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 81.47 yuan/barrel, an increase of 1.60 US dollars or 2.0%. The market expects that OPEC+, an oil producing country, may extend and deepen production cuts, leading to a rebound in oil prices.
In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased in November. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.57%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.67% at the end of the month. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early December, with consolidation being the main trend.
3、 Future Market Forecast
PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the spot market price of PVC has fallen this month, and downstream demand is affected by the performance of the real estate data market, resulting in relatively weak market demand. In addition, the decline in carbide prices and poor performance of the futures market have limited support for the PVC spot market overall. It is expected that the PVC market will remain weak and stable in the short term.