1、 Price trend:
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the overall ABS market fell in 2019, and the spot price in the domestic market shrank to a certain extent. As of December 30, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 22.76% from the beginning of the year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors:
Industrial chain: in the upstream of PA6, in the first half of 2019, the domestic caprolactam market basically showed an inverted V-shaped trend, with a basic balance between supply and demand in the market and a stable market price. After the first quarter of the festival, due to the centralized commencement of downstream chip manufacturers, insufficient stock of raw materials before the festival, relatively high purchasing atmosphere, and high overall starting load, the market price continued to rise. At the end of March, some caprolactam units were shut down for maintenance, the supply of goods was slightly tight, and the market maintained a rising trend. At the beginning of the second quarter, the early trend continued, but as the downstream demand gradually weakened, the overall supply and demand returned to stability again, the market price peaked, and the industry returned to wait and see. By May and June, affected by the macro environment, the demand in the terminal market remained light. Although the starting load of upstream and downstream units in the site fell to the new low in recent years, the sluggish demand in the terminal market made the market price of caprolactam continue to fall. In the third quarter, caprolactam rose as a whole due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials. The supply of spot goods was tight, which promoted the increase of caprolactam market, and then entered the downturn in the fourth quarter. In October, the price of pure benzene began to fall, the supply of domestic products increased, and the bearish sentiment increased. Caprolactam prices began to decline in October. The downstream procurement is cautious, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds the demand.
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Products: PA6 market relatively stable into the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year. After the festival, the cost side strengthened and the price recovered slightly. At the end of the first quarter, some large-scale factories reported an increase in price, and the manufacturer’s parking maintenance plan increased. On the other hand, the demand in the downstream is weak and the market is in a stalemate. By April, the demand was still not improved, but the price trend of upstream caprolactam liquid continued to strengthen, and the supply was further tight. Raw materials are lifted to PA6 disk to offset the shortage of downstream procurement. By may, the start-up rate of upstream caprolactam had increased, the inventory of manufacturers was high, and the price began to decline. PA6 lost the strong support of cost side, the confidence of domestic PA6 industry was impacted, and the quotation of manufacturers was mostly lowered. PA6 followed the rise and fall of caprolactam in July and August. After entering the “golden nine silver ten” traditional peak season, the demand of downstream industries such as home appliances has increased, which has injected the long lost good from itself into PA6 and stepped out of a wave of positive rising stage market. However, the supply of PA6 in China tends to expand, and the demand is weak for half a year, which leads to the closure of traditional peak season grass. The response of the “silver ten” peak season is limited. The manufacturers failed in trying to hold up their prices, and the prices were weak. At the end of the year, it entered the market of looking up and down. At present, PA6 keeps falling with raw materials. Looking at the market of PA6 in 2019pa6, it seems that the cloudy and sunny days of caprolactam have more reference significance. The rise and fall of PA6 spot price in the whole year is largely consistent with the upstream price, but this also reflects the fact that PA6 market is less favorable from the product itself. The growth of demand has lagged behind, the increase of domestic production capacity, PA6 has also followed other rubber and plastic brother industries into the queue of supply and demand imbalance.
3、 Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: in 2019, PA6 market volatility fell. The annual trend of upstream caprolactam is also not ideal, PA6 market is greatly affected by the fluctuation of upstream caprolactam. However, PA6′s own growth momentum is insufficient, and the growth of downstream demand does not match the increase of production capacity. The mentality of the industry is bearish and the operation is cautious. The downstream replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand throughout the year, and the delivery and investment are average. PA6 market in the whole year has great upward resistance, and it is expected that it will not improve in the short term.
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