1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell first and then rose this week, and the price rose compared with last week. On December 19, the price of pure benzene was 6500-6900 yuan / ton (the average price was 6620 yuan / ton). On Sunday (December 26), the price of pure benzene was 6750-7000 yuan / ton (the average price was 6830 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 210 yuan / ton, or 3.17%, compared with last week, and 53.48% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
In the first half of the week, due to the continuous increase in the arrival of pure benzene in Hong Kong, the continuous accumulation of inventory, the mentality of market participants was empty, and the price continued to fall weakly. Near the weekend, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil and the rise of downstream styrene, pure benzene stopped falling and rebounded. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene increased by 200 yuan / ton to 6800 yuan / ton (in North China, it decreased by 200 yuan / ton on Monday and 200 yuan / ton on Friday).
On the external market, Asian pure benzene rebounded after falling this week. On Thursday (December 23), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 927 US dollars / ton, up 13 US dollars / ton or 1.42% month on month (December 17); the reference price of imports in East China was 942.5 US dollars / ton, up 25 US dollars / ton or 2.72% month on month (December 17).
In terms of crude oil, although the oil price fell due to the surge of cases infected with the new crown variant strain Omicron in the United States and Europe at the beginning of the week, the research data showed that its impact on the economy and oil demand was weaker than expected, the market concerns were alleviated, and the oil price continued to rise broadly in addition to the sharp decline in U.S. crude oil inventories. As of December 23, Brent rose $3.33 / barrel, or 4.53%; WTI rose $2.93/barrel, or 4.13%.
Downstream: styrene: styrene fell first and then rose this week, and the price fell compared with last week. The price of sample enterprises was 8350 yuan / ton on December 17 and 8125 yuan / ton on December 24, down 2.69% compared with last week and up 23.73% compared with the same period last year. The operating load rate of styrene this week was 76.38%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points compared with last week, the overall production capacity was slightly lower than last week, and the wharf inventory was significantly removed due to the increase of delivery.
Aniline: the price of aniline is stable this week. On December 24, the price in Shandong was 9500-9980 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9800-10000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 25.43% compared with the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the driving force for the rise of international oil prices remains unchanged. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
Downstream: downstream main product styrene: this week, the port inventory has obvious destocking performance due to the incremental delivery, but styrene has entered the stage of new plant investment or restart communication, and the off-season spot demand is weak. Superimposed with the bad futures such as the Northern Winter Olympic Games, the bad has existed and the good has not yet been realized. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate and callback next week.
The downstream units in Shandong are planned to be put into operation, or drive a new round of rise in pure benzene; However, the price in East China may be dragged down by inventory. Pay attention to the downstream market, plant dynamics, domestic pure benzene plant dynamics, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.