Commodity index: on December 10, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.13% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.70% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)
Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 1, 2019, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15966.67 yuan / ton, and on December 10, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.23% in the first ten days of this month.
Industry chain: upstream: from December to now, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market has fluctuated and increased. On the first day, the quotation was about 10500 yuan / ton, on the fourth day, it soared to 12000 yuan / ton, and on the ninth day, it fell back to about 500 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton. Judging from the market trend in the second half of the year, the high price of acrylonitrile appeared in the late September, and the price has been reduced in a ladder way since October, with an overall decrease of 2000-3000 yuan / ton in five months, shaking Swing range of 15% or so, this month’s market shock up. Downstream: in winter, the construction amount of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a greater impact. Manufacturer: the current production of the manufacturers in the main production area of Henan Province is normal. Occasionally, the production will be stopped due to environmental protection inspection. The output will not be affected much. The supply of goods is sufficient, and the price will be slightly reduced.
Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. Since the fourth quarter, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal; the environmental protection inspection is strict, there are occasional stoppages, the production impact is small, and the market mainstream quotation is small and down.
Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, in December, the north is in the heating season, and the project construction volume is reduced to a certain extent, the procurement volume is slightly affected, while the impact in the south is not significant. Environmental protection inspection is strict in all regions, production is occasionally stopped, the overall production of manufacturers has little impact, and the supply of goods is stable. So far this month, the price of acrylonitrile, as the upstream raw material, has been raised by about 1000 yuan, and the cost of polyacrylamide has increased. In conclusion, polyacrylamide is not likely to be significantly lowered, and the market will maintain a small fluctuation trend.