Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated horizontally, with slight fluctuations on August 28th. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20746.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the market average price of 20596.67 yuan/ton on August 1.

Aluminum ingot inventory situation
As of August 28th, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major regions of China was 610000 tons, an increase of 24000 tons from 586000 tons on August 18th.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices showed an “N” shaped trend in August. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 78371.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 79585 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 1.55% and a year-on-year increase of 6.23%.
According to the current chart of Shengyi Society, the spot price of copper in August was basically higher than the futures price, and the main contract is the expected price two months later. The expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly increased in September. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 155000 tons, up 9.35% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the market has very strong expectations for the Fed’s September interest rate cut, with a probability of approaching 90% or even 95% at one point. Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting was interpreted as dovish, reinforcing this expectation. At the end of July, the US “232″ investigation was launched, and the results showed that no tariffs would be imposed on refined copper, but a 50% tariff would be imposed on copper and other products. This policy has become relatively clear, reducing its short-term disturbances.
Supply side: Codelco in Chile has lowered its 2025 production forecast to 1.34-13.7 million tons (approximately 30000 tons lower than the March forecast). The Escondida copper mine in Chile (accounting for 5% of the global production) has reduced production by 15% due to rainstorm. The land transfer of a large copper mining development project in Arizona, USA, has been temporarily blocked. The refined copper production in July was 1.27 million tons, a decrease from the record breaking 1.3 million tons in June. The refined copper production in July was 1.27 million tons, a decrease from the record high of 1.3 million tons in June. The import volume of recycled copper decreased year-on-year (by 2.36% in July), and the price difference between refined and scrap narrowed, resulting in import losses.
Downstream: Although facing the drag of the real estate industry, the investment plan for the power grid has exceeded 825 billion yuan (year-on-year growth), and the new energy sector (photovoltaics, wind power, new energy vehicles) maintains high growth rates, all of which provide a solid foundation for copper demand. The production of household air conditioners in July was slightly better than expected.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have risen more or fallen less in September, and there is a high probability that copper prices will rise in September this year.
In summary, this month, there have been frequent disruptions in global copper mine supply, pressure on China’s smelting sector due to extremely low processing fees, and overall low domestic inventories in China. The supply side has shown a pattern of “tightening at the mining end and regional tension in refined copper supply”. In terms of demand, the demand in the power grid and new energy sectors remains strong, while traditional real estate is weak. The peak consumption season of “Golden September and Silver October” is approaching, but attention should be paid to the failure or less than expected magnitude of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate and become stronger.

As of August 26th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5675.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% compared to the beginning of this month (5825.00 yuan/ton), showing a short-term correction trend.

Looking back at this month’s trend, the market has experienced a rebound driven by tight supply. In early August, the national average price (excluding Xinjiang) remained around 5300 yuan/ton. Starting from the 11th, due to the concentrated parking and maintenance of multiple enterprises, the industry’s operating rate has plummeted to the lowest level in nearly three years, 44.32%, and daily production has decreased significantly by more than 30%. The tight supply has pushed up prices in some regions, driving the national average price to rebound to 5600 yuan/ton, with a stage increase of 1.41%. However, market support factors have recently weakened.
Cost side:
As of August 26th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1712.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.52% compared to the beginning of this month (1812.50 yuan/ton). After reaching 1782 yuan/ton, it turned downward, a decrease of 1.73% from the high point in the first ten days, weakening the cost support for melamine. On the other hand, although downstream demand for sheet metal has slightly rebounded, the sluggish real estate industry still hinders the overall demand recovery. In addition, the adjustment of international tariff policies has affected exports, and there has been no strong growth on the demand side. In addition, some maintenance facilities are scheduled to restart towards the end of the month, and the market expects supply to gradually rebound, putting pressure on prices.
Overall, long and short factors are intertwined in the market in the short term, and it is expected that the mainstream price will show a stalemate in the range of 5300-5600 yuan/ton. The follow-up market trend needs to focus on the demand fulfillment during the traditional consumption peak season in September. If downstream demand can increase as scheduled and the price of raw material urea stops falling and rebounds, then prices are expected to gain new upward momentum. It is recommended that all parties in the industry closely monitor the progress of equipment resumption and changes in demand, and flexibly adjust their business strategies.

Last week (August 18-24, 2025), the main raw material dissolving slurry market was generally stable, with limited cost support. The finished product inventory of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers was not high, and supply support still existed. The downstream market mainly consumed raw material inventory, and the overall market speed was stable. The price of adhesive short fiber market was adjusted and operated.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (August 18-24, 2025), the market price of viscose staple fiber was weakly stable. As of August 24, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13040 yuan/ton, which was the same as the same period last week.
In terms of cost: Last week (August 18-24, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolving pulp, with weak support and limited cost support. As of now, the price of domestic dissolving pulp is around 6700 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved pulp is around 800 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 870 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remain stable but fluctuate slightly, with average cost support.
The supply fluctuation is not significant
The industry supply has declined, and the current daily operating rate in the market remains at around 75%. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers have declined compared to the previous period, and downstream yarn companies are picking up goods as needed. The overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market has decreased, and the supply fluctuation in the industry is not significant. Some manufacturers have low inventory, and the positive support from the supply side is limited.
Downstream essential replenishment
The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment has slightly increased, and price fluctuations are not significant. As of now, the price of ring spun R30S in Jiangsu region is around 17100 yuan/ton, and the price of ring spun R40S is around 18300 yuan/ton. The market is in a traditional off-season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn market transactions are not ideal. Only a few models of vortex spun cotton yarn have slightly better export orders. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish urgently needed goods, with no significant improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will be insufficient.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have high inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be poor in the short term; The terminal market is still in the traditional off-season of demand, with limited new orders placed. Downstream yarn mills are experiencing a certain degree of risk aversion and may maintain their demand for signing orders. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be moderate in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with sufficient overall supply. Downstream yarn mills mainly sign orders according to demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the price is expected to be accepted at 12900-13100 yuan/ton.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on August 25th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9570 yuan/ton. Compared with August 1st (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9980 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that looking back at the first half of July, supported by macro positive factors such as “anti involution”, the spot market for silicon metal has experienced a recovery, with the market center of gravity continuing to rise and prices returning to the 10000 yuan mark. However, the overall improvement in the supply and demand of the silicon metal market is average, and the sustained support for the market is insufficient. Starting from the end of July, the market center of gravity began to decline. In August, the silicon metal market continued to adjust downwards, and the market negotiation center gradually shifted. As of August 25th, the market price of silicon metal 441 in the eastern region of China is referenced around 9500-9700 yuan/ton, the market price of silicon metal 441 in Kunming is referenced around 9500-9700 yuan/ton, and the market price of silicon metal 441 # in Tianjin is referenced around 9500-9600 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is around 9200-9300 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Shanghai is around 9800-9900 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and demand: Since August, the overall supply of metallic silicon in China has slightly increased, with production mainly in the northern regions. At present, the overall supply and production of metallic silicon have increased slightly. In terms of downstream demand. In August, the downstream organic silicon market of metallic silicon showed light performance, cautious in raw material procurement, and stable performance in polycrystalline silicon market procurement, mainly continuing to focus on essential needs procurement.
Construction progress: In August, silicon companies in Xinjiang resumed production, which led to a slight increase in overall construction and supply. In mainstream regions, the operating rate of Northwest China ranks first with a reference of around 76%, followed by Yunnan where the operating rate remains at around 68%, and Xinjiang and Sichuan where the operating rate of metal silicon is around 56-57%.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the price fluctuations in the silicon metal market are the main trend, and downstream users tend to purchase at low prices. The market trading atmosphere is generally average. The silicon metal data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly operate in a range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (8.18-22), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4720 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.38% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC showed weak consolidation, with most manufacturers maintaining stability and some making slight adjustments within 50 yuan/ton. In the past two weeks, the PVC market has fluctuated in a weak range, mainly due to the lack of favorable fundamentals, the sustained weakness of crude oil prices, prices have been hovering at low levels, and the weakness of the futures market. The spot price of PVC is also unlikely to have a strong trend, with a slight downward shift in the overall range. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4750-4850 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the performance of the calcium carbide market was sluggish this week, and the price did not continue to rise as before, but turned into a decline. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the decline this week was 0.96. The price is still relatively low, with limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the sluggish performance of the PVC spot market is mainly due to insufficient downstream operating rates, average demand, and difficulty in improving the supply-demand pattern in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 21, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 5716 yuan/ton. Compared with August 15 (reference price of n-butanol was 5733 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that as we enter this week (8.15-8.21), the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, shows a narrow downward trend. Some n-butanol factories and suppliers in Shandong region have lowered the shipment price of n-butanol by 50 yuan/ton. As of August 21st, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 5650-5800 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the production of n-butanol in the factory is stable, and the inventory of n-butanol in the factory is low. The overall supply pressure is controllable, and downstream users are mostly first-time buyers. Inquiries are generally at a low level, and there is a cautious attitude towards the high price market. Overall demand support is limited. The supply and demand transmission of n-butanol is loose.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is relatively weak, with downstream buyers mainly buying at low prices. The supply and demand transmission of n-butanol is relatively loose. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Recently (August 1st to August 20th), the domestic EVA market has experienced a decline followed by an increase, with a range of fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 20th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 10900 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the beginning of the month and 0.62% from the low point of the cycle. On the one hand, the fundamental performance of EVA is still not optimistic, and on the other hand, with the approaching peak season and the shortage of some brands in the market, the supply price of EVA has slightly increased, driving the market to explore a rising atmosphere.

Recently (8.1-8.20), EVA production has increased to over 9.0%, and supply pressure still exists, but there is a shortage of supply for some grades. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene slightly increased and the price of vinyl acetate decreased, providing cost support for EVA. As of August 20th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 6900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47% from 6800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The price of vinyl acetate in the East China market is 5325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.33% from 5625 at the beginning of the month.
On the demand side, the short-term downstream photovoltaic demand is well supported, and downstream foam terminals tend to purchase on demand. As prices rise, foam factories are slightly resistant to high priced sources of goods.
Market forecast: Overall, raw material prices have fluctuated, and there is still high supply pressure for EVA production. The downstream photovoltaic and foam industries are mainly supported by demand. With the arrival of the traditional peak season, it is expected that the EVA spot market will tentatively rise in the later period.

Recently, the market price of melamine has started a continuous upward trend. As of August 19th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07% compared to last week (5700.00 yuan/ton). Although the current price is still lower than the same period last year, the continuously expanding month on month growth rate and the steady upward trend of market prices.

At the beginning of August, the operating load of the melamine industry briefly rebounded to around 50%, but due to the continuous high temperature weather, the equipment in major production areas such as Sichuan and Anhui passively reduced load, and the overall load rate of the industry has fallen back to 40%. The contraction of supply has led to sustained low inventory in the market, and some manufacturers have adopted a strategy of controlling quantity and accepting orders, driving prices to rise accordingly.
From a regional perspective, transaction prices in the northern region have stabilized at around 6000 yuan/ton at a high level; The mainstream price range in the central and eastern markets is 5700-5900 yuan/ton; Affected by local supply contraction, prices in the southwest region have risen to 6100 yuan/ton; The Xinjiang region presents an independent market trend due to transportation radius restrictions, with transaction prices fluctuating narrowly within the range of 5000-5400 yuan/ton.
The urea market will maintain a volatile pattern within a narrow range. As of August 19th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1766.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55% compared to the beginning of this month (1812.50 yuan/ton). Under the dominance of supply contraction, the melamine market continues to show a warm trend. Although there is no strong driving force on the raw material side, the overall stable cost support effect of urea is still significant. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of low operating rates in the industry, it is expected that the upward channel of melamine prices will continue.
Overall, the current melamine market is still dominated by three major positive factors: the support of export advance receipts, the decline in industry operating rates to 40%, and the significant bottoming out effect of raw material costs, which jointly strengthen manufacturers’ determination to raise prices. Although the terminal board industry has slowed down due to high costs, the shortage of spot goods is difficult to solve in the short term (although there are few repairs, it is difficult to offset the impact of low operating rates), coupled with the market’s “buying up” mentality fermentation, mainstream enterprises are actively raising prices. It is expected that under the short-term tight supply-demand balance, prices will continue to rise, and there is currently no signal of easing the supply gap.

Last week (August 11-17, 2025), the trend of the upstream raw material market for nylon filament gradually stabilized, with limited cost support and high inventory levels in the market. The industry supply was sufficient, and there was no sign of improvement in downstream market demand. Downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm was difficult to increase, and the market trading atmosphere was average. Many operators held a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the nylon filament market was weak and stable, with prices mainly consolidating.

Nylon filament prices remain weak and stable
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of nylon filament remained weak and stable last week (August 11-17, 2025). As of August 17, 2025, DTY (premium product) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region; 70D/24F) quoted 14320 yuan/ton; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 12050 yuan/ton; The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is quoted at 14900 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous period.
Weak and stable support on the raw material side
In terms of cost: Last week (August 11-17, 2025), the spot market price of caprolactam remained weak and stable. The weekly settlement price of caprolactam by Sinopec was 9575 yuan/ton (interest free for six-month acceptance). The market price of nylon PA6 slices fell weakly, with a weekly decline of 1.58%, indicating weak cost support. As of August 17, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 8986 yuan/ton, mainly due to weak price consolidation, with a weekly decline of 0.92%. During the week, the market price of high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips remained weak, stable, and fluctuating, with weak cost support being the main factor.
Supply and demand: During the week, the operating rate of some nylon filament manufacturers’ facilities decreased, and the overall market supply was sufficient. However, the industry inventory level still showed an increasing trend, and the supply side performance was poor; The demand in the end market is weak, and some downstream manufacturers have reduced production or switched production, resulting in a decrease in demand for nylon filament. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, and many parties are following suit with rigid demand. Many industry players are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.
Future forecast
Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the expectation for pure benzene is weak, and slice manufacturers have low enthusiasm for purchasing caprolactam. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by weak and low-level consolidation next week; In terms of PA6 slicing, cost support is limited, and the supply level of PA6 slicing market may continue to improve. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is expected that the market price of nylon PA6 slicing will weakly decline.
Supply and demand: August belongs to the off-season of traditional demand in the market, coupled with the lack of signs of improvement in terminal market demand and low purchasing enthusiasm in downstream markets. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for nylon filament market may decrease next month. If there is no significant improvement in demand, under the pressure of large inventory, some nylon filament manufacturers may have the possibility of reducing production capacity, while the industry continues to release new production capacity. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of nylon filament market will decrease next month.
Overall, both the upstream raw material caprolactam spot market and the nylon PA6 chip market may continue to decline, with a lack of cost support and difficulty in improving downstream market demand. The demand side is dragging down the market trend, and under the dual negative factors, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market will remain weak and stable, with weak price consolidation as the main focus.