According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on March 25 was 40.40, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 59.60% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 48.09% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020.
Since the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the natural rubber spot market has experienced a rapid upward trend and continued to fluctuate and weaken after a 25% rise, of which 16287 yuan / ton on February 25 is the watershed of this round of market.
Figure 2: Trend of mainstream natural rubber prices in the first quarter of 2021
Data monitoring shows that the price of domestic natural rubber latex broke through 16000 yuan / ton on February 25, which is the highest in three years since 2018, up about 25% from 13000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021, while the last high was 19800 yuan / ton on February 10, 2017. The price of natural rubber continued to fluctuate and decline after reaching the high point on February 25, and fell by 16.35% in the one month period to March 25.
In the first quarter of each year, China’s domestic rubber region stops cutting rubber, and Southeast Asia stops cutting rubber one after another, especially from February to March, when the output of new rubber stagnates, which is the traditional lowest supply of natural rubber. At the same time, taking the traditional Chinese Spring Festival holiday as the dividing point, trading enterprises usually choose the appropriate period to collect rubber before the festival, and after the year, after the middle of February, the downstream demand increases significantly, and the tire enterprises increase rapidly The operating rate of the industry has picked up rapidly. The lowest supply and demand rebounded sharply, and the natural rubber market rose rapidly supported by the strong spot fundamentals. However, as one of the futures varieties, natural rubber is directly affected by many repeated and miscellaneous factors in the world. In particular, the current foreign epidemic situation has a huge impact on the commodity market, and the international environment is complex and changeable. At the same time, China’s natural rubber will be cut off one after another at the end of this month and next month. The market is generally worried about the impact of new rubber listing on the market. When the market goes down, the speed is also fast Fierce.
In February, affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the spot rubber price on the 26th dropped by about 950 yuan / ton, basically covering all the increase on the 25th. In March, the crude oil price experienced three sharp drops again. On the 9th, 18th and 23rd, the crude oil market had a great impact on the petrochemical industry and had a strong conductivity. The downstream futures commodities responded very quickly to it. The natural rubber price has dropped by 11.38% so far this month.
Figure 3: crude oil price trend since 2021
According to the analysis of the business association, at present, in terms of the output of new rubber, under the current weather conditions, less than 10% of the new rubber is cut in Yunnan producing areas in China. It is reported that the local powdery mildew is relatively serious, and it is unlikely that the new rubber will be put on the market in batches in a short period of time; the rain in Hainan producing areas is better, and the new rubber will not be cut in early next month, and the batch of new rubber in China’s domestic producing areas will be at the end of April at the fastest; the Southeast Asian producing areas will be the worst It will start cutting gradually in the middle of next month. At present, there is still a low supply period of half a month to one month. In terms of demand, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has been alleviated, and the demand for rubber products has increased. In addition, the domestic economic situation is good, and the downstream demand has increased. At present, China’s tire enterprises are producing well, and the operating rate has increased steadily. In terms of inventory, the rubber inventory and warehouse receipt coefficient of last week’s previous period decreased, and the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline. In terms of import and export, it was affected by the stock preparation Affected by the demand, from January to February, the import volume of natural rubber latex in China increased by 2.95% on a month on month basis and 41.44% on a year-on-year basis; after the year, the business started to recover well and the demand for rubber volume increased. It is preliminarily expected that the import volume will still rise in March. Based on the above factors, the current natural rubber market has strong support, but the market is generally worried about the new rubber market after half a month or even one month. At the same time, through the analysis of multiple factors such as macro-economy and external environment, the short-term trend of crude oil may have more interference factors, and the amplitude may be enlarged. In the long run, the economic recovery is still good for oil prices. Comprehensive analysis shows that in the short term, natural rubber mainly fluctuates slightly, beware of the transmission effect of large changes in crude oil, and in half a month to January, beware of the impact of new rubber listing on the market. Overall, the current economic situation is good, with increased downstream demand and better support.