Yesterday a large domestic market, stable move, Shandong Province has been a slight increase in urea prices 10-30 yuan / ton since the weekend, the small particles mainstream 1540-1550 yuan / ton, Anhui area due to rain and snow weather, agriculture prepared fertilizer more positive, price increases 20 yuan / ton, shipping improved, North mainstream factory rose to 1620 yuan / ton, today Henan manufacturers better compensatory growth of individual shipments of 30 yuan / ton, the market hold above lakes, north, south urea market as a whole relatively stable, the region needs no big difference. Recently, the domestic market in India and railway freight tender price increases under the influence of a narrow range of messages, coupled with the recent rains in some areas the snow weather, agriculture prepared fertilizer initiative to enhance short-term market will continue to show steady urea to the good situation.(http://www.lubonchem.com)
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January 27th Asian ethylene market closing prices have declined $ 10 / ton, CFR Northeast Asia, the closing price of $ 869-871 / ton, CFR Southeast closing price of $ 879-881 / ton.(http://www.lubonchem.com)
According to the business community bulk chart data showed this week, domestic cyclohexanone continued weak market conditions, domestic companies offer weekly average price of 8300 yuan / ton, this weekend domestic companies offer price fell to 8240 yuan / ton, the overall decline at 0.72%, current prices fell by 32.04% compared to last year.
Product: This week cyclohexanone domestic market downturn weak domestic plant operating is not high, due to the current market price low, small shipping companies, foreign companies offer much, take the volume of the market less, waiting to see atmosphere, the market as a whole pay poor investment.
Chain: This week upstream benzene hydrogenation of benzene and other market conditions continue downward, the market cost of cyclohexanone negative impact, while the weak downstream demand cyclohexanone, adipic acid, caprolactam and other market conditions continuing weakness in the near future, companies operating rate more remain low, limited overall demand for cyclohexanone weak overall performance venue.
Industries: Crude low, cyclohexanone product confidence negative impact on the downstream industry chain.
Outlook forecast: external disk market weakness, while the downstream product market continues to down, the business community branch chemical cyclohexanone analyst Zhou Qian believes cyclohexanone recent market will continue weak.(http://www.lubonchem.com)
January 5, the Shanghai municipal government announced that the Shanghai municipal government agreed to by the Xinhua Financial Investment Co., Ltd., in 10 oil and gas companies venture Shanghai trading center. Interview with reporters, many experts believe that the establishment of natural gas spot trading center is to promote the energy system of the revolution, an important step in advancing the market price of natural gas. The next level as the market continues to improve, the natural gas trade from long-term contracts may be short-term contracts to spot trading and even transformation, but will not be completely replaced.
Forced Asian Asian premium gas trade center construction
In recent years, with the rapid economic development in Asia, especially the growing demand for oil and natural gas demand for energy. Asia is becoming the world’s major oil and gas importer, foreign dependence continues to rise. But the area has not yet formed an influential oil and gas trading center, the lack of pricing right to speak.
2013, followed by the three Northeast Asian base price of natural gas trading system – the average CIF Japan LNG per million British thermal units $ 16.17, or about Germany, the UK gas import prices 1.5 times that of the United States Henry natural gas hub price 6 times.
One reason is that in the US, Europe, the Middle East and other oil and gas consumption and production countries and regions, both oil and natural gas futures, but also oil and gas spot market, improve the market structure, rich trading system for the oil and gas trade offers a variety of channels. But it lacks a sound trading pricing system in Asia.
With rising global oil and gas production, slowing demand growth, oil and gas flows and market structure is undergoing significant change, oil and gas prices have also been falling, the right to speak importer is improving, build oil and gas trading center in Asia has become consensus and inevitable.
China International Economic and Exchange Center Research Associate Chunmei King pointed out that in recent years, Japan, Korea, Singapore are actively seeking to establish natural gas trading center, and then fight for Asian gas pricing. Construction of the natural gas trading center for the reduction of import premium pricing power and access to natural gas has an important and positive role and significance, is conducive to China for the Asian natural gas pricing, the expansion of China in the international discourse gas sector.
Natural gas trading center established to promote domestic pricing mechanism will help to improve
Increasing expensive imported gas and the increasingly high cost of domestic natural gas development, Forced gas prices accelerate the pace of reform. Currently, different sources of natural gas pricing mechanism, the price difference is also large, leading to ease gas prices is difficult, hard to the rational allocation of resources. Conduction from the correct price signals, rational resource allocation point of view, the establishment of natural gas trading center, help nurture the natural gas price discovery center, cope with the impact of natural gas supply and demand in the international market and price volatility.
Natural gas market development experience from abroad, the European tradition linked pricing mechanism and crude oil prices, but with the European countries have set up natural gas trading center, natural gas users, dealers and importers find the spot gas price changes on supply and demand, “responsive” more accurately reflect the market value, but also more to promote win-win situation, culminating with the oil-linked pricing based, spot gas prices linked to mixed pricing supplement, the proportion of natural gas consumption and gas prices in recent years linked to from 16% to 47%. We can say that the establishment and development of natural gas trading center in Europe is a catalyst for reform of the pricing mechanism.
King noted Chunmei, building natural gas trading center, will help China to further promote the reform of natural gas pricing mechanism, establish natural gas prices from different sources are interrelated, effective linkage uniform pricing mechanism. In addition, the construction of natural gas trading center, helps to break the monopoly, to attract more gas distributors and end users, expand market reach, and promote positive interaction and development of China’s natural gas the whole industry chain. “(Trading center) for the natural gas industry chain system Forced to play a role in the pipe network is an independently operated Forced on the formation of an independent transmission and distribution of gas prices is a Forced.”
Establishment of natural gas trading center will play a decisive role in favor of market allocation of resources
China’s current natural gas market mature, natural gas supply contracts and gas trading conditions for the lack of flexibility, part of the price is also subject to control, difficult to adapt because of resources, market conditions and seasonal variations caused by changes in natural gas supply and demand situation. Construction of the natural gas trading center will help solve this problem. Chunmei King pointed out that in the natural gas trading center, buyers and sellers can talk face to face direct price, which is an important step in the reduction of energy product attributes, which directly reflects the actual price of natural gas supply and demand.
Establishment of natural gas trading center for natural gas producers, distributors and end users benefit. For manufacturers, the price of the trading center to form a direct reflection of the actual supply and demand, could then arrange the production, supply, while ensuring reasonable arrangements for production. Dealers and end users, you can use a lower purchase price, to get more revenue. At the same time, natural gas trading center affordability meet strong user demand for high value-added products, and promote optimal allocation of resources.
Moreover, the natural gas market in different seasons, will form different gas prices, market participants can take advantage of arbitrage spreads. For example, natural gas use in the off-season, companies can purchase low-cost natural gas during the winter heating period, sell high profit.
In addition, the construction of natural gas trading center also helps to promote the government, gas production and transportation companies, city gas companies and large industrial users and other market players involved in gas storage investments, peaking provide a flexible infrastructure protection. In the United States, whether it is gas injection gas storage or gas production is mainly determined by the market price of natural gas. When the low market price of natural gas, natural gas operators to purchase natural gas from the market and stored in gas storage. When the price is high, and then transported from the gas storage gas production to the user. Summer and winter gas prices is poor, peaking gas prices and gas peak bargaining is the main driving force to promote the development of the North American gas storage height.
Original Gas Energy Research Center analyst Liu Yang pointed out that China, China’s natural gas truly determined by the market price, but also the need to break the industry market-oriented reforms. This requires the establishment of a sound legal rules, diverse market players, improve infrastructure and an independent regulatory body. Establishment of natural gas trading center is an important step in the development of the market, is to promote market-oriented reform of the industry cite the essay, the natural gas market will lay the foundation for the healthy development of China.(http://www.lubonchem.com)
With international oil prices continued to decline in 2015, natural gas prices are also under tremendous pressure. This would be positive for the restructuring of China Energy.
This should be a winter peak demand of natural gas prices should rise, but according to statistics data, in November 2014 China liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports an average price of $ 604 / ton, compared with $ 641.07 in October 2014 in / ton chain fell 5.77 percent, while the average price of pipeline gas imports in November 2014 compared with October also fell 11.34% MoM.
Chairman of the king Policy Institute at King’s College London, Nick Butler noted that the current natural gas prices have started to decline, the US natural gas prices during December for the first time fell below $ 3 / million British thermal units since 2012, and this is just the beginning.
Why is there such a gas price trends? Qie Jing gas analyst attributed first international crude oil prices continue to fall. She told the “China Sankei Shimbun,” told reporters that the continued decline in international crude oil prices led some countries to re-use turbine oil, reduce the demand for LNG spot, continued weak demand led to the Asian LNG spot prices fell below $ 10 / one hundred Wan Btu, the highest in nearly three years to a new low.
It is predicted that in 2015 the price of crude oil is likely to remain at low levels. Qie Jing think this will further affect spot LNG demand, resulting in LNG spot prices continue to decline.
Ampang consulting a research report points out another reason gas prices are expected to fall: There are indications that Japan is ready to accept the gradual recovery to enable nuclear power plant, the initial pace will be relatively small, but even this step is enough to weaken the natural gas prices in Asia, Prior to the Japanese were forced to import natural gas to replace nuclear power, resulting in several Asian gas prices approaching $ 20 / million British thermal units, each nuclear power plant operators have a recovery will reduce demand for natural gas; as prices soar in 2011, as now they will fall back.
Due to lower natural gas import costs, the state can enhance gas imports, now is a good time to encourage large-scale imports, cleft Jing stressed that “a good time to import natural gas is equivalent to a good time to China’s energy structure adjustment.”
Ampang Consulting also believes that China should be timely to increase gas imports to replace fossil fuels.
In the “Action Plan for Energy Development Strategy (2014-2020 years),” June 7, 2014 the State Council issued a clear will “optimize the energy structure” as a strategic task of China’s energy development, namely, “to reduce the proportion of coal consumption, increase natural gas the proportion of consumption, the safe development of nuclear power, and vigorously develop renewable energy. ”
The document also proposed that by 2020, total primary energy consumption control in about 4.8 billion tons of standard coal, coal consumption control in about 4.2 billion tons. By 2020, non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 15% the proportion of natural gas share of more than 10%, the proportion of coal consumption control in less than 62%.
It seems that the international price of natural gas is expected to decline in silence seems to fulfill the realization of China’s energy development strategy plan. Decline in natural gas prices, the first impact is that the coal industry.
In cleft Jing view, if the future of natural gas prices, downstream users will certainly choose natural gas as a fuel, it will reduce the demand for coal, coal prices further suppress, but did not cause a severe shock to the price of coal, natural gas and coal because of the relationship between the only alternative, there is no comparability between the two economies, not because of price changes either directly affect the price of the other, there is a certain level of economic performance between the two.(http://www.lubonchem.com)