The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2025 can be summarized as “oversupply, price decline, and industry reshuffle”. The turning point of the core market from “out of stock” to “surplus”. 2025 is a new round of concentrated capacity expansion period after 2022. As of the end of the year, 1.05 million tons of new production capacity have been successfully put into operation, and the main new supply is gradually released in the second half of the year. However, downstream demand has not kept up, leading to a market downturn from a brief high at the beginning of the year and entering a stage of overall surplus.

1. Price trend: Open high and go low, continue to decline. At the beginning of 2025, due to the impact of some factory maintenance and delayed production of equipment under construction, the mentality of factories to raise prices increased, and the price once soared to a three-year high, reaching around 12000 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, downstream consumers have strong resistance to high priced raw materials, and with new production capacity being put into operation one after another, prices have started to “plummet”, initiating a sustained downward trend. By the end of the year, the mainstream market price in Shandong had dropped to around 7600 yuan/ton, halving from the high point at the beginning of the year. The annual average price of ports in East China for the whole year is about 8726 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 6.84%.
2. Supply side: The “explosion” of million ton production capacity and the adjustment of market structure in 2025 can be said to be the “big year for acrylonitrile production”, and the surge in supply is the main reason for crushing prices. The new facilities of the giants have been put into operation this year, and as of the end of the year, 1.05 million tons of new production capacity have been successfully put into operation. The domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has exceeded 5.449 million tons, with a growth rate of nearly 24%, reaching a historical high. (Some data even suggests that it may exceed 5.7 million tons.) And with the addition of four new companies, the number of domestic production enterprises has increased to 20. The industry concentration (CR5) has further declined, and market competition has shifted from “oligopoly monopoly” to “multi strong competition”.
3. Demand side: The main engine is “weak” and the upstream is working hard to produce, but the downstream’s “appetite” has decreased. Although ABS, as the largest downstream, has also seen an increase in new production capacity, weak consumer demand in household appliances and other end products, coupled with a sluggish real estate market, have resulted in low operating rates in ABS factories and limited ability to digest acrylonitrile. The traditional acrylic fiber field is under pressure due to the decrease in overseas orders. Although the demand for carbon fiber as an emerging field is growing rapidly (with an expected annual growth rate of 8% -12%), it is still unable to fill the gap left by ABS in the huge overall market. The latest data shows that the apparent consumption of acrylonitrile in November decreased by 4.05% month on month, indicating that demand is further weakening.
Outlook for Acrylonitrile Market in 2026
2026 is likely to be a continuation of the difficulties of 2025. Due to the fact that the production capacity concentrated in 2025 will be fully released by 2026, and downstream demand is difficult to grow synchronously, the market will face a more severe “supply-demand imbalance”. This will be a brutal elimination round about ‘who can survive’.

Core prediction: Prices further decline, industry enters a ‘reshuffle period’
1. Price trend: The center of gravity has shifted downwards, with low-level fluctuations. With the complete release of new production capacity, supply pressure continues to increase. Unless there is a large-scale equipment maintenance or unexpected outbreak on the demand side, it is difficult for prices to have a decent rebound. It is expected that the mainstream market price will fluctuate between 7700-9000 yuan/ton in 2026, and the annual average price may continue to decline compared to 2025.
2. Supply and demand pattern: The situation of oversupply will reach its peak in 2026, and the industry’s operating rate may further decline. The industry’s production capacity growth rate is expected to remain above 15% in 2026, with a planned construction capacity of over 1 million tons. This means that there will be more cheap acrylonitrile in the market looking for buyers. After the largest downstream ABS is put into production in 2025, the new production capacity will decrease in 2026, and the operating rate may remain low due to the macro consumption environment. Other downstream companies (such as acrylic) find it difficult to digest such a huge increase.
3. Profit expectation: The prices of propylene and liquid ammonia, the main raw materials with slight profit or loss in the entire industry, are expected to remain relatively stable compared to 2025, and are expected to fluctuate narrowly, which will not provide strong support for acrylonitrile. The theoretical profit margin of mainstream factories will continue to be compressed, and may even remain in a state of long-term losses or low profits. This will force high cost production capacity (such as some old and non integrated facilities) to “maintain value” by reducing load or shutting down.
Key variable analysis and recommendations

1. Pay attention to the “export” indicator: Since internal competition is inevitable, export volume will become the most noteworthy data in 2026. If export volume can increase significantly, it may temporarily alleviate the domestic downturn. By 2026, with the integration of coastal integrated facilities such as Zhenhai Refining and Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical, the export volume of domestic acrylonitrile to Southeast Asia, India and other places is expected to further increase, which will be an important “spillway” to balance domestic overcapacity. With the increasing demand for the automotive industry (especially oil seals, hoses) and oil resistant products, the consumption of acrylonitrile by nitrile rubber will also steadily increase.
2. Carbon fiber will be the biggest highlight, which is the most noteworthy variable in 2026 and also the most profitable and fastest-growing link in the acrylonitrile industry chain. Almost all carbon fiber raw fibers rely on acrylonitrile, and the growth of one ton of carbon fiber will directly drive the demand for one ton of acrylonitrile. With the large-scale wind turbine blades, carbon carbon composite materials for photovoltaics, and the explosive demand for hydrogen energy storage tanks, the carbon fiber industry is expected to maintain an average annual compound growth rate of over 30%. But carbon fiber has high requirements for raw material quality, usually supplied by high-end products from top manufacturers such as Sinopec and Jilin Petrochemical
3. Beware of the “cost line” game: 2026 will be a crucial year for clearing production capacity. It is necessary to closely monitor whether high cost devices within the industry (usually those non integrated, small-scale factories) experience large-scale parking or maintenance. Only when these ‘competitors’ withdraw can prices stabilize.
4. Cash flow is king: At this stage, pursuing high profits is unrealistic, survival is the top priority. It is recommended to adopt a “follow the market” sales strategy to maintain healthy cash flow and avoid the risk of price decline caused by inventory backlog.
Summary: The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2026 will be a “tough battle”. The downstream demand will be ‘large enough in total, but not divided enough’. Although carbon fiber and exports can eat up some of the newly added production capacity, facing the weakness of ABS and acrylic fibers, as well as the increasing production capacity of several million tons in the upstream, the overall bargaining power of the downstream is still strong, and the price of acrylonitrile is likely to remain fluctuating near the “cost line”, making it difficult to achieve a large profit market. Don’t expect prices to rebound significantly, be mentally prepared to “grind the bottom” near the cost line in the long run. The darkness before dawn is often the coldest, enduring it is rebirth.

Aluminum prices rose by 3.37% in December

Aluminum prices rose in December. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 22473.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.37% from the market average price of 21740 yuan/ton on December 1.
In December 2025, aluminum prices continued their upward trend from the end of October and repeatedly hit new highs for the year, with raw material alumina prices fluctuating at a low level. Currently, the profit per ton of aluminum is in a relatively good position. At present, the average profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum is between 5500-6000 yuan/ton, and the average profit per ton of raw material alumina is negative, ranging from -50 to -100 yuan.
The unsustainability of rare ‘reverse divergence’ between aluminum price and alumina
The “reverse deviation” between aluminum prices and alumina prices is essentially the result of short-term supply-demand mismatch and pricing logic differentiation. Its unsustainability stems from four core forces: the inherent law of industry chain profit rebalancing, the hard constraint of supply clearance, the long-term effectiveness of cost transmission, and the re correction of inventory and game theory. Ultimately, it will push the two to return to the normal direction or convergence.
On December 26th, the Industrial Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission released the “Vigorously Promoting the Optimization and Upgrading of Traditional Industries”, which focuses on “strengthening management, optimizing layout, curbing blind investment, and promoting mergers and acquisitions” for resource constrained industries such as alumina. In the short term, expectations will be driven by emotions, and in the medium term, production capacity clearance and structural optimization will be accelerated, reshaping the supply pattern in the long term. The trend of “anti involution” is expected to redistribute profits in the metal industry chain.
1、 Supply side: Loss forcing production capacity to clear and repair supply-demand imbalance
The loss of cash costs triggered passive production cuts: In December 2025, the price of alumina futures fell below the cash cost line of 2400-2500 yuan/ton, causing a loss of about 50 yuan per ton in the industry. Small production capacity with high mineral and energy consumption (accounting for about 15% -20%) was the first to shut down; In the first half of 2026, it is expected to reduce production by 8-12 million tons, and the supply growth rate will decrease from 8% to 3-4%, matching the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum demand and reversing the surplus pattern.
Slowing down of new production capacity and capacity replacement: Industry losses suppress the enthusiasm for new investment, and the planned new production capacity in 2026 may be reduced from 13 million tons to within 8 million tons; At the same time, environmental protection and energy consumption constraints are becoming stricter, and the high cost production capacity in inland areas is accelerating its withdrawal. The proportion of low-cost production capacity in coastal areas is increasing, and the supply structure is optimized to support price and profit recovery.
Inventory depletion strengthens price elasticity: The high level of alumina inventory (about 1.2 million tons by the end of 2025) will gradually decline with production reduction and demand recovery. When inventory drops below 800000 tons, the tight spot market will push prices to repair above marginal costs, creating conditions for profit return.
2、 Cost side: Strengthening bottom support makes it difficult for the cost curve to decline in the long term
The cost of bauxite has bottomed out and rebounded: bauxite accounts for about 60% of the cost of alumina, and the external dependence is about 70%; Guinea’s rainy season, geopolitical disturbances, or low port inventories (<80 million tons) will drive mineral prices to rebound from $68-70/ton to $75-80/ton, raising the cost floor of alumina and limiting the room for price decline.

Rigid increase in other costs: Fluctuations in prices of auxiliary materials such as electricity and caustic soda, as well as increased investment in environmental protection, are driving up the overall cost of alumina; If the price of alumina remains below the cost line for a long time, the enterprise will be forced to shut down due to cash flow disruption, forming a hard support of cost on price.
The long-term effectiveness of cost transmission: Alumina accounts for about 35% -40% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum. In the long run, changes in the cost end will eventually affect aluminum prices through the cost transfer of electrolytic aluminum. If the cost of alumina continues to rise, it will force aluminum prices to rise or compress electrolytic aluminum profits, repairing the distribution of industry chain profits.
3、 Demand side: Stable demand for electrolytic aluminum drives demand repair for alumina
Continued tight supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is constrained by the 45 million ton red line, while overseas (Europe, the United States) continues to reduce production due to high energy costs. The high demand for new energy (photovoltaics, new energy vehicles) drives the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum consumption to maintain 3% -4%, indirectly driving the demand for oxidized aluminum and alleviating the supply-demand imbalance.
The release of new overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity: The addition of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and other regions will bring new demand for over 2.4 million tons of alumina by 2026, further digesting domestic excess supply.
Expansion of demand for high-end alumina: The localization of high-purity alumina (4N+) is accelerating, with an import dependency of about 48%. With domestic technological breakthroughs and demand growth, the premium of high-end products is increasing, improving the overall profit structure of the industry.
4、 Industry chain game: profit redistribution, bargaining power rebalancing
The high profit of electrolytic aluminum forces the price increase of raw materials: the profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum reaches 5500-6000 yuan. In order to lock in the supply of raw materials, aluminum plants may accept the price increase of alumina (such as from 2500 yuan/ton to 2700-2900 yuan/ton), give up the alumina link, and repair their profits.
Optimization of Long Order Pricing Mechanism: Alumina enterprises lock in sales and prices by signing quarterly/annual long orders, reducing the risk of spot fluctuations; The increase in industry concentration (with the market share of top enterprises rising from 30% to 40%) enhances bargaining power and drives profits back to a reasonable range.
Rebalance of macro and financial attributes: Aluminum prices have strong financial attributes and are greatly affected by Fed interest rate cuts, geopolitical disturbances, etc., but they still need to anchor fundamentals in the long run; If macro easing expectations recede or demand falls, aluminum prices may come under pressure, which in turn will force alumina to reduce production capacity and drive price and profit recovery