1、 Price trend

The average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China on October 30 was 3833 yuan / ton, down 34 yuan / ton or 0.86% compared with last week, according to the business agency.

On October 29, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3730 yuan / ton, down 115 yuan / ton or 2.99% from the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of October 29, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1139800 tons, a decrease of 44000 tons (3.72%) compared with last Thursday and 12200 tons (1.06%) compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, Zhangjiagang and Taicang continued to be in a downturn this week, with an average daily shipment of about 5200 tons in Zhangjiagang and 5900 tons in Taicang.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 59%, which is 4% higher than last week; the operating rate of polyester is about 88%, which is basically the same as last week.

In terms of units, the new 300000 t / a ethylene glycol plant of Shanxi Huaneng is planned to be shut down for maintenance on October 20 for 15 days; the 100000 t / a ethylene glycol plant of Tianjin Petrochemical Company will be overhauled in early October, with the restart time to be determined; Sinopec Wuhan is expected to start maintenance on October 15, lasting for two months.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the recent sluggish downstream demand for ethylene glycol and the heavy pessimism in the market, the spot market and futures market prices fell all the way this week. However, due to the positive effects of continued destocking and the significant decline in overseas imports of ethylene glycol in September and October, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to rebound slightly in the near future. However, due to the end of silver October in the terminal weaving Market, it is difficult to measure the future market.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China at the weekend was 940 yuan / ton, which was 926.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.14% during the week and 35.58% higher than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the sulfur market in East China was stable and upward. The inventory of refineries in various regions of China remained low. Downstream factories and traders purchased on demand, and the shipment was smooth. The port quotation cost was high, and the shippers had no intention to ship at low price, which has certain support for the domestic sulfur market. During the week, Sinopec’s sulfur quotation in East China was stable, the mainstream price of solid sulfur was 890-1200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 840-980 yuan / ton; the solid-liquid sulfur price in Shandong area of Sinopec was increased by 20 yuan / ton, both in 960-970 yuan / ton; in North China of Sinopec, the price of solid and liquid sulfur was increased by 20 yuan / T, 810-830 yuan / T and 780-840 yuan / T, respectively.

On the downstream side, fertilizer use in autumn is coming to an end, and the export of phosphate fertilizer is also finishing up, and the market trading is slightly flat. This week, the domestic market trend of ammonium phosphate is good, the enterprise quotation is firm under the support of raw materials, and the market order is sufficient. In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic market performance is different. The price trend in Shandong is mainly weak and stable. The price of mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the inventory of manufacturers is small, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected that the sulfuric acid market will rise slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Aftermarket forecast: the sulfur analysts of the business club believe that the domestic sulfur market is stable and good at present, local inventories are maintained at a low level, phosphate fertilizer is stored in winter, and the market demand is good. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to rise steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of cryolite market this week has been stable, with the average price of 5733.33 yuan / ton in Henan at the weekend, and the price was stable during the week, down 9.47% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of cryolite remained stable. As of the 30th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 5200-6800 yuan / ton, while that in Henan was 4800-6200 yuan / ton. At present, cryolite enterprises start operation normally, inventory is sufficient, and enterprise quotation runs smoothly within the week. In terms of the installation situation of domestic enterprises, Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of 30000 tons / year, and the plant has been put into operation for about 70% of the plant. Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. has a full plant load and normal operation. The ice crystal production capacity of Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. is 40000 tons. The plant is in normal operation, with normal inventory and stable sales. There is no parking plan for the moment.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite manufacturers started operation normally, and the supply of on-site goods was sufficient. However, the downstream demand was insufficient. The domestic fluorite price trend decreased slightly this week. At the weekend, the domestic market average price was 2622.22 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.67% during the week. The fluorite market was weak. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, at present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is relatively low, the market supply is increased, and the downstream demand is optimistic, but the support from the cost side is limited, and the future market may remain volatile.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the cryolite manufacturers are operating normally, the market supply is sufficient, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the demand. The market transactions are mostly purchased on demand. The downstream electrolytic aluminum side lacks support for the cryolite industry. In the short term, the cryolite market continues to operate weakly and stably, with specific attention to the market demand.

According to the data of business agency, the spot price of gold on October 30 was 403.78 yuan / g, a decrease of 1.80% compared with the average price of 397.40 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (10.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 16.02%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 19.79% compared with the peak price of (8.7) silver in the year/ G, down 11.29%.

On October 30, the average price of silver market was 4947.33 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.47% compared with the average price of spot market at the beginning of the month (October 1); the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01) was 4281.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 13.05%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 68.12%; compared with the peak price of 8.11, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg , down 26.25%.

Domestic market:

Spot price of precious metals rose and fell in Shanghai Gold Exchange:

1. The benchmark price trend of “Shanghai gold” in October morning and afternoon:

2. The benchmark price trend of “Bank of Shanghai” in October morning midday trading was as follows:

The price of precious metal futures rose and fell in Shanghai Futures Exchange:

1. Price trend of gold main contract in October:

2. Price trend of main contract of silver in October:

In October, domestic precious metal gold and silver prices were mainly consolidated. Affected by the external market during the National Day holiday, the prices of precious metals returned to the market after the National Day holiday. After that, the prices of precious metals returned to the consolidation operation slightly and fell continuously at the end of the month, with a slight downward fluctuation as a whole, which was significantly narrowed than that in September. According to business agency data, the monthly decline of gold spot price was 4.47%, and that of silver was 19.50%.

In October, the monthly decline of precious metal prices narrowed month on month, and the price of precious metal band stabilized.

See Jun’s point of view:

Short term precious metal prices stop falling and consolidate

One At the meeting of the European Central Bank, Lagarde was more pessimistic about the European economic prospects. In addition, due to the risk aversion sentiment driven by the policy of overweight in December and the approaching election in the United States, the monetary easing policies of the major central banks continued, and the price supporting factors were still in place. In addition, the geopolitical risk events such as the Sino US situation and the situation in the Taiwan Strait were frequent, and the precious metal prices were further reduced and stabilized The probability of horizontal running is increased.

2. After the downward adjustment in the past two days, the price is basically close to the bottom of September price, the downward space is narrowed, and the consolidation range is in place.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, due to the tight supply, the domestic bromine market in October was strong and upward. As of October 29, the average price in Shandong was about 31888 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.13% compared with the beginning of the month, and an overall increase of 3.42% over the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

In October, the domestic bromine market continued to be strong. The overall performance of the month was strong. The overall market started relatively stable, and the inventory of enterprises was generally low. After the downstream market entered the peak season, the market trading was enthusiastic. Some bromine production enterprises had flat shipping intention for the reserve warehouse, and the market supply and demand were in a tight balance. The mainstream bromine enterprises quoted 31500-32000 About yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the sulfur market continued to rise, with an increase of about 90 yuan / ton in the month. Refineries in various regions made firm quotations according to the shipment situation. At present, the downstream demand and shipment performance were stable, and the operators had a positive attitude. The sulfur quotation in the market was firm. The future market focused on the follow-up situation of the downstream, at present, about 940 yuan / ton. The sulfuric acid was stable in the month, and the prices of mainstream manufacturers were temporarily stable There is little stock and strong downstream demand, at present, it is about 397 yuan / ton; the caustic soda market is strong and upward within the month, the downstream demand is strong, combined with the increase of enterprise maintenance, the caustic soda market continues to rise by 9.5%, at present, it is about 495 yuan / ton. The main downstream flame retardant market of bromine started fairly well, the terminal market demand was strong, and the demand for bromine was good. With the price of bromine rising to the high level in the year, the enterprises were in conflict with the high price of bromine; the industries such as pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates started generally, and the demand side supported the bromine price smoothly.

3、 Future forecast

The bromine industry analysts of the business society believe that the current domestic bromine market spot supply is stable, the downstream market demand is weakening, which has a certain conflict with the bromine price. In addition, the recent arrival of imported bromine into Hong Kong has a certain impact on domestic bromine. Due to the current small inventory pressure of bromine enterprises, the intention of price adjustment is not obvious, and the market supply and demand game, it is expected that bromine will still run stably in a short period of time.

Domestic price trend:

According to statistics, in October, the domestic price of p-xylene dropped. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 4600 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 4450 yuan / ton, with a price trend of 3.26% and a year-on-year decrease of 34.56%. The external price of PX decreased slightly. The domestic PX market was highly dependent on foreign countries. The decline of external price had a negative impact on domestic prices.

In October, the domestic market price of p-xylene declined slightly, and the domestic PX operating rate was about 60%. Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. put into operation 600000 tons of new units. Yangzi Petrochemical plant was in stable operation, fuhaichuang plant was in the first line. Pengzhou petrochemical plant was in stable operation, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was in normal operation, Jinling Petrochemical plant was running smoothly, and Qingdao Lidong unit was operating at full load The operation of Shandong Petrochemical plant is stable, and the Urumqi petrochemical plant is operating at about 50%. The domestic supply of p-xylene is normal. Affected by the low price of crude oil, the price trend of domestic PX market has declined slightly. In October, the international crude oil price decreased slightly, while the external price of PX decreased slightly. As of the 28th, the closing prices in Asia were 521-523 USD / T FOB Korea and 539-541 USD / T CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX units in Asia has been stable, and the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the closing price of PX in external markets is slightly lower The price trend of p-xylene market declined slightly.

The international crude oil price fluctuated around us $40 / barrel in October. As of the 28th, the main contract settlement price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 37.39 US dollars / barrel. The Brent crude oil futures market price also fell sharply. The settlement price of main contract was 39.64 US dollars / barrel. The oil price fell sharply at the end of October, mainly affected by the bad crude oil inventory data of the United States and Europe The surge in new cases prompted the government to restart the restrictive measures, exacerbated the expected decline in fuel demand, crude oil prices fell, and the market price of p-xylene declined.

In October, the price trend of downstream PTA market rose slightly, while the domestic PTA spot market rose. As of the end of the month, the average price of PTA market was about 3400 yuan / ton, and the price increase of PTA in October was 1.86%. In October, the demand for downstream terminals recovered and PTA equipment was overhauled on a large scale. PTA prices ushered in a wave of upward trend. Orders from overseas textile industry flowed into China. At the same time, the textile and garment markets at home and abroad recovered significantly, the market situation of downstream textile industry improved, PTA prices rose slightly, and the price trend of PX market was limited.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of the business agency, thinks that the new production capacity will have a certain impact on the market. In addition, the production and sales of polyester in the downstream have fallen down as a whole. It is estimated that the market of PTA will continue to rise with insufficient motivation. In addition, the crude oil price is facing the risk of falling. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene will decrease slightly in November.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply in October. As of the 29th day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 6300 yuan / ton, which was 16.67% higher than 5400 yuan / ton on the first day, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.08%. The spot supply was tight, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply.

In the last ten days of October, phthalic anhydride increased by a large margin, and the delivery of phthalic anhydride market improved. In the near future, the downstream demand was normal, the price of o-benzene fluctuated at a low level, and the market of plasticizer did not improve. However, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started operation at a low level, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride was less than 60%. Domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, and the dealers were not willing to ship at low prices. The price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. However, the downstream plasticizer industry had a strong wait-and-see mood, and the actual transaction was not significantly favorable. The price of phthalic anhydride increased too much and the price was slightly inflated. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China rose sharply, and the high-end transactions were limited. In East China, the main source negotiation of neighboring France was 6300-6500 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene process was 6000-6100 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 6300-6400 yuan / ton, and the observation state of phthalic anhydride field was still in existence, the downstream procurement did not increase significantly, and the driving force of continued rising in the later period was insufficient.

In October, the domestic o-benzene price remained low, and the floor price remained at 4400 yuan / T. the low domestic o-benzene price was a negative influence on the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import o-benzene market in the port area remained at a low level, and the external quotation of o-benzene did not change much. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The detailed list was discussed. In addition, the on-site o-benzene merchants were in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the o-benzene price was low The low price of raw material o-benzene is unfavorable to the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride.

At the beginning of October, the DOP market price in the downstream of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic DOP price was 7433.33 yuan / ton as of the 29th day, which was 2.53% higher than the price of 7250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctyl alcohol in the field was mainly fluctuating. The operation of DOP device was stable, and the spot supply was sufficient. The DOP market price rose slightly. The market of plasticizer industry rose slightly. DOP market quotation was 7450-7750 yuan / ton. The transaction of plasticizer in the market was general, and the downstream market had an upward trend. The domestic phthalic anhydride price rose sharply due to the shortage of supply.

Generally speaking, the crude oil price has declined in recent years, but winter is the peak sales season of plasticizer industry, and the market may rise in the later stage. The phthalic anhydride market is supported by favorable conditions, and the price continues to rise.

In the future, the domestic o-benzene price trend is mainly volatile, but the transaction price of plasticizer has increased, and the price of plasticizer has a strong driving force. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in November.

1、 Price trend

According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on October 29 was 5000 yuan / ton, up 1.01% compared with the beginning of the week, 2.74% on a month on month basis, 6.54% lower than the beginning of the year and 6.25% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, phosphoric acid market continued to rise with the rise of raw materials, but the range was not large. At present, the price of phosphoric acid market has been raised in many places, and most enterprises fluctuate in the range of 50-150 yuan / ton. Take anda chemical as an example, it has risen to 4850 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan. Other places also have different degrees of increase. At the same time, some enterprises have higher prices, so quotation is suspended and sales are relatively stable. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus is stable, but the enterprises intend to raise the price. With the normal period approaching, the electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan have been increased. The production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises has increased, and the price has continued to rise. The phosphoric acid market is strongly supported by the cost side, and the price goes up gradually. However, the demand follow-up is insufficient, the industry has a lot of wait-and-see mood, and the enthusiasm of preparing goods is not high Transaction atmosphere is not warm, cautious procurement, future market also need to pay attention to the cost side.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of October 29, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5000 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4850-5400 yuan / ton, the price was rising, the price in Yunnan was about 4800 yuan / ton, the transaction was stable; the price was about 4700 yuan / ton in Beijing, the price was temporarily stable; the price was about 4800-5050 yuan / ton in Hubei, the price was rising; the quotation in Tianjin was 5600 yuan / ton The price rises when the price is about RMB / ton; the price rises when the price is about 4700 yuan / ton in Jiangsu Province. Prices have risen steadily in various places.

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content in East China: 85% OCT 29 5300-5400

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Southwest China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

The phosphoric acid industry chain rose more than fell less. On October 28, the phosphoric acid industrial chain index was 88.99, down 0.04 points compared with yesterday, 16.24% lower than 106.25 points (2012-03-22), and 14.68% higher than 77.60 points, the lowest point on July 2, 2019. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Yellow phosphorus, the price of domestic yellow phosphorus market rose this month. At present, the spot sales of yellow phosphorus market are basically normal, the spot is a little nervous, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The price in Yunnan increased rapidly, followed by Guizhou, and gradually increased in Sichuan. The normal water period is approaching, the electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan will be increased in the next month, and the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase. However, there is a tight demand for phosphorus production in Sichuan. Yellow phosphorus is expected to remain bullish in the short term.

In the middle of October, the domestic Guizhou region led the overall upward trend of the national phosphate ore market, and the quotation of medium and low-grade phosphate ore increased one after another, with an increase range of 10-20 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of mining enterprises is firm, and the downstream moderate orders are received. The market prices of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid are rising one after another, and the supply and demand remain stable. As of October 26, the domestic mainstream areas have 30% grade phosphate rock reference The average price was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as a week ago. Compared with October 1, the average price increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 2.65%.

Sulfuric acid, in late October, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. The price of sulfur in the upstream has been high recently, and the downstream market is good. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream for sulfuric acid is normal, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small shock rise.

At present, the raw material price of Monoammonium continues to rise, the cost is favorable to support, and the downstream demand increases. It is expected that monoammonium will continue to rise in the short term. At present, the supply of diammonium is tight, the international demand is stable temporarily, and the downstream fertilizer preparation is increasing. Diammonium is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society, the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that the price of the raw material yellow phosphorus is rising continuously, the phosphoric acid market is supported by the cost side, the price continues to rise, and the focus of the negotiation continues to move closer to the high level, but the performance of the demand side is poor, and the industry has a strong outlook. The yellow phosphorus still has a bullish expectation next month, and it is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to follow the rise 。

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of ethyl acetate in October overlapped with good news, and the price rose sharply in the month. As of October 28, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 6532 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.12% compared with the beginning of the month.

The domestic ethyl acetate market continued to rise this month, mainly affected by two aspects: on the one hand, the prices of raw materials acetic acid and ethanol were running at a high level, and the cost side support was good; on the other hand, due to the strong demand in the downstream end market, the market supply was in short supply, and the enterprises had a strong intention to support prices. At present, it is about 6650 yuan / ton in East China, 6500 yuan / ton in North China and 6700 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market showed a strong performance, the supply and demand in the industry was in a tight balance state, domestic demand and export orders increased significantly, enterprise inventory dropped to a low level, and enterprises gradually increased the ex factory prices. The ethanol market is strong and upward, corn prices continue to rise, and the production costs of manufacturers have increased significantly. Some enterprises in the industry have caused the market supply to decline due to the maintenance of some enterprises. Under the situation that there are not many spot stocks in the market, the price of ethanol continues to rise. At present, ethanol in East China is about 6887 yuan / ton.

The international market price of ethyl acetate is stable. At present, the port price in European market is about 840-880 euro / ton; in North America, the port price is about 740 US dollars / ton.

According to the ethyl acetate analysts of the business club, there are many favorable supports for the domestic ethyl acetate Market, and the short-term favorable factors still exist. Although the price of ethyl acetate has reached a high level, the terminal purchase is still good. With the continuous decline of enterprise inventory, the manufacturers have good intention to support the price, and it is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will be stable in a short period of time.

According to the statistics of business agency, as of October 27, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was 15466 yuan / ton, up 4.74% compared with October 1, and 13.27% lower than that on October 1; the price of nylon POY was 13080 yuan / ton, 4.31% higher than that on October 1, and 15.72% lower than that on October 1; the price of nylon FDY was 16250 yuan / ton, 4.17% higher than that on October 1, and 17.51% lower than that on October 1.

In October, orders improved, and the high price of nylon industry chain was difficult to cool down. As of the 27th, the average price of pure benzene was 3600 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.51% in the same month, but the initial signs of correction appeared at the end of October. In terms of cyclohexanone, although the price has increased, the increase is general. On the one hand, the price support of raw material end is fair, and the transaction of downstream caprolactam is also hot. Many enterprises of caprolactam can be overhauled or reduced, and the supply is reduced, which has a certain drag on the rise of cyclohexanone. With the disappearance of the replenishment peak period, the sales of PA6 high-speed spinning chips are under pressure. After the resumption of work in October, the short fiber and yarn wrapping enterprises are more active in replenishment, which has not lasted for a long time. Recently, the trend of trading has weakened, and some businesses have lowered their prices.

Raw materials still remain high, nylon filament manufacturers basically do not act. In mid October, the nylon market ushered in a price rise. On the one hand, the continuous trading limit of polyester staple fiber has played a leading role in the recovery of textile market, and textile raw materials generally go up. On the other hand, foreign textile orders are transferred to China, and the purchasing demand is picking up. However, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in September 2020, China’s textile and clothing export volume was 28.377 billion US dollars, a decrease of 8.24% month on month. At the same time, staple fiber futures sharply callback, cotton prices fall, the actual order support is general, capital participation makes the recent market is over interpreted. Filament manufacturers hold the price more, the action of price rise slows down, the raw material support is acceptable, and the merchants hold the price for shipment.

Business agency analysts believe that in the near future, nylon filament is mainly stable, some specifications have risen slightly, the transaction atmosphere has cooled, and the supply and demand pattern has changed. From the raw materials have signs of decline, filament is expected to have a downward trend.