Aluminum prices ended falling and rising on the 28th
According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot in East China market in August was 18830 yuan / ton, up 2.52% in the day compared with the average market price of 18366.67 yuan / ton on the 27th.
It is reported that in late May, affected by the recent regulatory authorities’ interviews with key enterprises in black and non-ferrous industries, the domestic spot aluminum ingot price began to decrease, from 19680 yuan / ton on the 19th, to 18366.67 yuan / ton; The increase of aluminum price in May was mainly in the first ten days of the 28th, which was basically flat in the month, down from the average market price in early may (5.1).
Macro factors are slightly empty
At home, affected by the surge in the early period of commodity, the current policy is mainly to ensure supply and stability, and to curb the unreasonable rise of commodity prices in all aspects. The voice of policy departments has caused the expectation of market regulation on policy in the later period to rise, and the mood of commodity market has cooling signs.
Cost rise in some regions due to changes in cost side price policy
The Inner Mongolia development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued a notice that since February 10, 2021, the self-contained power plants pay policy cross subsidy according to the spontaneous self-use power consumption. The collection standards of Mengxi and Mengdong power grid are respectively 0.01 yuan and 0.02 yuan per kilowatt hour (including tax). The basic electricity price policy of 3.39 minutes per kilowatt hour in the electrolytic aluminum industry in Mengxi area is cancelled, and the reverse step transmission and distribution price policy of Mengxi power grid is cancelled.
On May 25, the Ministry of industry and information technology of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued the notice on adjusting annual transactions, saying that the coal price has risen sharply in the near future, and that many coal and electricity enterprises in Mengxi have suffered serious losses in the short term. In order to ensure the smooth and orderly trading of the power market, five power generation groups, such as the North Union Power Co., Ltd., were adjusted to generate electricity enterprises in May 2021 and beyond The annual transaction price of the first batch of power users and the proportion of new energy allocation of users in the first batch of 2021. The adjustment principle is that the annual increase of user transaction contract shall not exceed 0.02 yuan / kWh. See the attachment for the specific adjustment proportion.
1. double control and balance the production schedule of new capacity
Yunnan and Guangxi are the major provinces of new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum this year. The recent energy consumption double control policy in Yunnan is more stringent, which will affect the production schedule of new production capacity to a certain extent.
According to statistics, the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang is about 16.91 million tons, accounting for about 40% of the domestic built-up capacity.
2. profit increase capacity commencement rate rising
In April, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.35 million tons, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year, and a 3.9% increase on a month on month basis. The output of electrolytic aluminum from January to April was 13.32 million tons, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year.
The relative low level of aluminum social inventory supported strongly at the consumption end of aluminum
The data of aluminum ingot social inventory show that the inventory is relatively low in recent years. As of May 24, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was about 990000 tons, down 30000 tons from last week.
Spot consumption is good, and it is obvious to go to the warehouse. The terminal demand is expected to be good, the investment data of power grid is relatively stable, the data of real estate, home appliances and automobile are better, and the aluminum consumer end is supported strongly.
The construction profile enterprises in downstream are expected to start at 62.07% in April and 60% in May; The starting rate of industrial profile enterprises in April is 61.36%, and it is expected to be 62% in May; The start rate of aluminum plate and foil enterprises in April is 81.64%, and it is expected to be 81% in May; The start rate of A356 aluminum alloy company in April was 54.51%, an increase of 0.61% year on year.
Post market forecast
At present, the profit level of aluminum ingot manufacturers has risen greatly, and the profit per ton of manufacturers with better energy efficiency ratio is close to 4000-5000 yuan. With the implementation of the goal of carbon peak reached by China Aluminum Industry and the promotion of the “double control” policy of energy consumption of local governments, although the market is affected by macro sentiment, the spot market goes to the warehouse in the peak consumption season. It is expected that the spot aluminum ingot price will be mainly operated in the short term between 17000-19000 yuan / ton.