1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly this week and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, it was a weekly low price of 5727 yuan / ton; on Thursday and Friday, it was a weekly high price of 5914 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.25%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Products: in March, the decline trend of propylene price in Shandong Province in the early stage of reform began. On the first day, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly. On the second day, the prices of the whole line rose slightly. On the third and the fourth day, the prices of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the prices of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the prices of enterprises began to fluctuate up and down, but the range was relatively small. On the tenth day, the prices generally fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the eleventh day, the prices slightly fell by 50 yuan / ton The daily price slightly decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the price decreased by 200-300 yuan / ton on the 13th. The price was stable on the 16th, and fell continuously on the 17th, 18th and 19th. Since the 20th, the price has been stable. The price began to rise on the 24th. Today, the price finally began to stabilize. At present, the market turnover is between 5800-6000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is around 5900 yuan / ton. At present, there are many propylene manufacturers stop production and maintenance, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. In early April, there may be more manufacturers to start.
Industry chain: upstream, influenced by the OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, the international crude oil price dropped sharply again on the 16th, slightly on the 17th, sharply on the 18th, slightly on the 19th, obviously on the 20th, obviously on the 23rd, slightly on the 24th, with little fluctuation on the 25th and 26th.
This week, PP market fell slightly, down 1.97% week on week, and PP futures market fell significantly, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.
This week, acrylic acid market declined slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.92%, which had little impact on propylene.
This week, propylene oxide market continued to decline, with a weekly decline of 2.78%, which had little negative impact on propylene.
This week, epichlorohydrin prices rebounded after a downward trend, with weekly gains and losses of 0, having little impact on propylene.
This week, the domestic price of n-butanol still fell, with a weekly decline of 2.24%, which has a certain negative impact on the negative impact of propylene.
This week, the octanol market continued to explore straight-line, the weekly decline has reached 5.81%, which has a more significant negative impact on propylene.
Affected by the epidemic situation, the market price of isopropanol, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, continued to rise sharply this week, with a weekly increase of 17.08% and a 12 day increase of nearly 50%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.
The price of phenol Market in Shandong Province fell this week, down 4.80%, which had a negative impact on propylene.
Shandong acetone market slightly increased this week, with a weekly increase of 0.57%, which had little impact on propylene.
3、 Future forecast
According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, the crude oil market has repeatedly been low due to the impact of the international crude oil market game recently. As the production and inventory of propylene are low before, the decline in the early stage is not significant, and the trend of follow-up in the later stage is also obvious. At present, propylene inventory is not much, and the operating rate is not high, so the manufacturer’s delivery pressure is small. However, in early April, it is expected that some enterprises will start construction one after another, and the downstream butanol and octanol will decline significantly. Although isopropanol is still rising, it is hard to support alone. It is expected that the price of propylene will start to stabilize in recent days, and may decline in the later period.