According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene slightly decreased this week (8.11-8.19). On August 19th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 8470 yuan/ton, while on August 11th, the benchmark price was 8630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85%.
The supply of mixed xylene is still relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of August 18th, the inventory of xylene in East China decreased by 2000 tons to around 13000 tons; The inventory of mixed xylene in South China decreased by around 10000 tons to around 2000 tons.
International crude oil futures have slightly declined this week. As of Friday, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 10 contract was 79.90 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 2.01%. Brent crude oil futures settled at $84.12 per barrel, a decrease of 2.13%. Due to the weak economic data in China and the instability of the banking industry in Europe and America, concerns about the global economic growth prospects have put pressure on crude oil, and crude oil prices have closed continuously lower. However, the decrease in crude oil supply from OPEC and Russia, as well as the improvement in energy demand, have played a supportive role in oil prices. In addition to the optimistic expectation of China’s oil demand growth, which continues to boost oil prices, during the summer demand peak season in the northern hemisphere, there are still positive factors for international oil prices. Thursday’s closing price rose, and overall, international oil prices are still at a high level.
In terms of downstream PX, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70% and a relatively normal spot supply. This week, the trend of crude oil prices has declined, and PX external market has declined. As of the 17th, the closing prices in Asia were 1006-1008 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1031-1033 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has not changed much. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the external price of PX has slightly decreased. The domestic xylene market price situation is temporarily stable.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of ortho xylene was 9000 yuan/ton, which remained stable overall. The external quotation of ortho xylene fluctuates and consolidates; The price of mixed xylene fluctuates and decreases, while the cost of ortho xylene decreases; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and declined, while the downstream plasticizer market has consolidated strongly. Demand is mainly in demand, and the enthusiasm for transaction of ortho benzene is average. The starting point of ortho xylene is low, and the inventory of ortho benzene ports is low. The supply of ortho benzene is tight, and the ortho benzene market is stabilizing.
Due to the three consecutive declines in the crude oil market at the beginning of the week, the prices of refined gasoline and diesel have slightly declined, but overall, the prices are still at a high level. Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has been around 74%, and the utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum capacity in refineries in China has risen to the highest level in two years. The operating rate in Shandong has slightly increased, and the overall operating rate has increased to around 67%. The supply of refined oil products in Shandong is relatively loose; The main domestic refineries maintain high load operation and high supply levels. Overall, there has been a slight increase in domestic refined oil supply, which is to some extent negative for the domestic refined oil market prices. Since mid August, the price of gasoline and diesel has not fluctuated significantly. In terms of gasoline, it is at the peak stage of summer tourism, with frequent private car travel and an expanded radius of travel. The high temperature in summer has increased the use of oil for car air conditioners, resulting in strong demand. The domestic gasoline market trend is relatively strong. In addition, the recent downstream replenishment mentality is still acceptable, and the main external procurement has increased. Refinery inventory has remained low, and various factors support strong willingness of merchants to increase prices.
Future Market Forecast: In the short term, international crude oil and naphtha costs will continue to support, and the tight supply of xylene will not decrease. However, downstream buying enthusiasm will weaken, and the market’s upward momentum will be weak. Overall, in the short term, mixed xylene prices will consolidate at a high level.