1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene fell broadly this week and rebounded on Friday. On March 11, the price was 8750 yuan / ton; On Friday (March 18), the price was 8190 yuan / ton, down 6.4% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 50.55%.
2、 Analysis and comment
In the first half of the week, international crude oil fell continuously and the cost support weakened; Superimposed on the impact of national public health events, the transportation in some areas was limited, the transaction of mixed xylene was blocked, and the price fell broadly. With the decline of mixed xylene price and the increase of large downstream households’ purchase in the market, crude oil rebounded broadly on Thursday, and the industry’s confidence in supporting the price was rekindled.
In terms of external market, the external market rebounded after the sharp decline of mixed xylene this week. On Thursday (March 17), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $1050.5/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of US $126 / ton, or 10.71%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 1074 US dollars / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 129 US dollars / ton, or 10.72%.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil rebounded broadly in a single day after falling continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, although the tension between Russia and Ukraine remained, the supply concerns eased. In addition, the market was worried that the excessively rising oil price would affect the demand and economy, and the oil price continued to decline. However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, and the International Energy Agency predicts that Russian oil production may decrease by 3 million barrels / day from April. Concerns about reduced supply have boosted the broad rebound of international oil prices in a single day. As of March 18, Brent fell $4.74 / barrel, or 4.21%; WTI fell $4.63/barrel, or 4.23%.
Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price fell this week. On Friday (March 18), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, down 2.11% from last week and up 38.81% from the same period last year.
In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China stabilized this week. On Friday (March 18), the price of ox in East China was 9000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 45.16% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rebounded slightly after falling this week. The price was 9976 yuan / ton on March 11 and 9616.2 yuan / ton on March 18, down 3.61% from last week and 36.54% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, there is still uncertainty about the future trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the risk of oil price rise still exists, and the short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
At present, the spot supply of mixed xylene is tight, and with the support of high crude oil prices, the market is reluctant to sell. However, domestic public health events affect transportation and the demand side is limited. On the whole, mixed xylene still fluctuates with the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil, gasoline and diesel, the dynamics of mixed xylene ports and devices, and the impact of downstream market and device dynamics on the price of mixed xylene.