Recent urea price trend
As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, from 3265.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3220.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.38%, an increase of 38.00% over the same period last year. On May 27, the urea commodity index was 149.77, the same as yesterday, down 1.68% from 152.33, the highest point in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 169.37% from 55.60, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Insufficient cost support, weak downstream demand and slightly lower urea supply
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea was quoted at 3350 yuan / ton this weekend, down 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea offered 3220 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea offered 3170 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 35 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;
From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6814.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6640.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.55%, an increase of 90.08% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have fluctuated in a narrow range recently. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 10175.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10100.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.74%.
In terms of demand, agricultural demand follows up on demand, while industrial demand is dominated by rigid demand. The wheat harvest is coming in the north, the agricultural demand is weakening, and some areas in the northeast and South purchase on demand. The wait-and-see atmosphere of compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories towards high priced urea is becoming stronger, the procurement slows down, the price of melamine drops slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is weakened. From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea this week was about 150000-160000 tons, with a slight decline, and the urea inventory was at a low level.
Urea prices fell slightly in the future
In the first ten days of June, the domestic urea market fell slightly, mainly due to consolidation. Urea analysts of business agency believe that the upstream market of urea fell slightly and the cost support weakened. Agricultural demand is general, industrial demand is weakened, and downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high priced urea. In June, Xiaguan fertilizer is about to enter the market. The mentality of the industry is empty, and the urea market is dominated by a small shock and decline in the future.