1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene fell by a wide margin this week. On April 8, the price was 7420 yuan / ton; On Friday (April 15), the price was 7140 yuan / ton, down 3.77% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 26.37%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil rose broadly this week, and the cost side boosted the mixed xylene market. However, the downstream demand for mixed xylene was weak, with sporadic transactions during the week. Under the influence of public health events, the transportation was blocked, the market mentality was bad, and the price followed the decline of the main refinery.
In the external market, driven by the rise of crude oil, mixed xylene in Asia fell first and then rose in the external market this week. On Thursday (April 14), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $1102.5/ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $41 / ton, or 3.86%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $1110 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $39 / ton, or 3.64%.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil showed a trend of falling first and then rising this week, and the overall price rose. At the beginning of the week, the news that the International Energy Agency planned to release crude oil reserves on a large scale continued to affect the market, with European and American crude oil futures falling more than 4% in a single day. However, according to relevant news, Russian oil production decreased significantly, superimposed on the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil rebounded rapidly, rising for two consecutive days, with an increase of more than 10%. As of April 14, Brent rose $8.92 / barrel, or 8.68%; WTI rose $8.69/barrel, or 8.84%.
Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (April 8), the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 45.31% compared with the same period last year. PX prices rose slightly this week. As of the 14th, the closing prices in Asia were US $1182-1184 / T FOB Korea and US $1200-1202 / T CFR China.
In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China stabilized this week. On Friday (April 15), the price of ox in East China was 8600 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week and up 53.57% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell continuously this week. The price was 8628 yuan / ton on April 8 and 8341.2 yuan / ton on April 15, down 3.33% from last week and up 13.14% from the same period last year. Recently, the epidemic situation in some areas rebounded, people’s travel was limited, the demand for gasoline was relatively reduced, and the on-site price fell.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the European Union may introduce a new round of sanctions against Russia, driving the rise of oil prices. However, the release of reserve plans by the United States and the International Energy Agency may curb the rise in oil prices. The short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
The cost side support remains unchanged, but under the influence of domestic public health events, logistics and transportation are blocked, downstream demand continues to be weak, the mentality of operators is mainly shipping, and there is a possibility of decline. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil, gasoline and diesel, the dynamics of mixed xylene ports and devices, and the impact of downstream market and device dynamics on the price of mixed xylene.