1、 This week’s market review:
This week, the melamine market continued its downward trend. As of April 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society was reported at 9150.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.43% from the beginning of this week (9675.00 yuan/ton). The overall price was under pressure and fell during the week, with a daily increase or decrease of -3.43%. From the perspective of market performance, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. Coupled with supply side pressure, prices continue to weaken.
2、 Core driver analysis:
On the demand side: The downstream industries such as sheet metal and plastic have average operating rates, and the procurement of raw materials is mainly based on the replenishment of essential inventory, resulting in insufficient demand support.
Supply side: After the maintenance of some devices is completed, production will resume, and the market supply will increase. Coupled with inventory pressure, prices will be further suppressed.
Cost side: The fluctuation of upstream raw material urea prices is not significant, and the cost side support is limited, which has failed to effectively boost the price of melamine. As of April 15th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1875.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54% compared to the beginning of this month (1865.00 yuan/ton).
Future trend prediction:
The short-term price of melamine has fallen below the 10 day moving average, and the 10 day cycle has oversold, indicating a technical rebound demand. However, the 20- and 30 day cycles are still at high levels, and the market’s willingness to chase higher prices is insufficient, with limited room for rebound. If the price cannot quickly recover to 9475 yuan/ton (near the 10 day moving average), or will continue to decline, the lower support is at 9000 yuan/ton, and the strong support is at 8800 yuan/ton (near the 20 day moving average).
The medium-term trend is mainly characterized by high-level fluctuations, and the trend needs to be confirmed. The medium and long-term moving averages are still in a bullish position, and the upward trend has not been disrupted. There is still momentum for rebound in the medium-term. If the price stabilizes at the 20 day moving average after a correction, it will meet the buying conditions and is expected to restart the upward trend; If it effectively falls below the 30 day moving average (about 8600 yuan/ton), the trend will reverse and enter a downward channel.
| Melamine |