I. price trend:
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the spot price of ABS was adjusted in the third quarter of 2019, and the domestic market recovered from the decline in the traditional peak season. As of September 30, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13500.00 yuan / ton, up 1.50% from the beginning of the quarter.
II. Analysis of influencing factors:
Industry chain: in all upstream aspects of ABS, the price of pure benzene in the upstream of styrene at the beginning of the quarter is subject to the fluctuation or maintenance of stability or slight decline of international crude oil price, while the downstream purchase is flat and just needs to be maintained. Since July, the number of imported styrene ships has increased, gradually entering the domestic market, the port inventory has been expected, and styrene manufacturers have no negative production plan for the time being, which is subject to the decrease of cost and the gradual increase of supply. At the beginning of the quarter, the price of styrene fell mainly. By the beginning of August, the international oil price and pure benzene had not improved, falling continuously. Styrene market prices were forced to follow. In addition, domestic enterprises are stepping up inventory removal, most enterprises are reducing prices and promoting sales, and the intention of the merchants to ship goods is relatively high, and more profits are allowed to go single. The negative trend was not positive until mid August when Sino US trade eased. The price of styrene fell back, but the downstream main demand still adopts the strategy of rigid demand procurement. At the end of August and the beginning of September, the international crude oil market continued to be positive, the overall oil price fluctuated upward, and the US gold market rose, providing styrene cost support. After the whole styrene market rebounded, it remained at a high level, while the profit margin of the production enterprises was slightly reduced due to the impact of higher prices of pure benzene and ethylene. At the end of the quarter, the supply of styrene in the spot market turned to be tight, import goods decreased significantly, and the offer price strengthened. The international oil market fluctuated violently. Electronic disk, US dollar styrene, etc. rose with the spot price. Until the end of last ten days, the styrene inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was abundant, the domestic overhaul styrene factories gradually resumed supply, and the spot supply of styrene market was relatively saturated, while the enthusiasm of taking goods in the downstream decreased, and the high-end price gradually fell, resulting in the domestic styrene price from rising to falling. In the near future, the market is still profitable in terms of goods holding and production links. After rapid growth, the market has no support, and the market has fallen back.
In terms of acrylonitrile related production, the spot supply was slightly tight at the beginning of the quarter, and the market was relatively strong. Under the tight supply, the merchants are reluctant to sell, but the demand is weak and the downstream is not enough. The weak demand offsets the tight supply, and the supply and demand in the field are basically balanced. As a result, it does not bring a wave of market for acrylonitrile. The same downstream rubber market is weak, some private enterprises stop. Acrylonitrile inventory has been reduced to a low level, so the impact on the spot price of acrylonitrile is limited, and the mentality of the industry is stable. In the quarter, the price of acrylonitrile in China was relatively stable, and the market was flat. At the end of the quarter, the spot market of acrylonitrile was basically in a strong price operation. It will take time for the new production line to be put into production for export of spot goods. The tight performance of spot supply remains unchanged, and the intention of traders to hold up prices is obvious. Downstream operators are cautious, among which acrylic plant operating rate is not high, replenishment to maintain rigid demand;
For butadiene, the domestic market rose strongly at the beginning of the quarter. The reason is that it is difficult for imported goods to effectively supplement the domestic market due to the narrowing of the price difference between the internal and external market, and some of the goods are exported to Korea for arbitrage, which aggravates the shortage of domestic supply. Sinopec’s continuous price rise in the East China supply cycle has significantly boosted the spot market. The export volume of northeast manufacturers has shrunk, and the news of kutai’s load reduction and srbon’s plan to start maintenance has been released intensively, which has boosted the domestic butadiene spot market to a strong and high level. Although the downstream rubber market is weak, the supply of low-priced butadiene market is hard to find, and some of them just need passive follow-up. With the price rising, domestic businesses are relatively active in shipping, and Fushun Petrochemical’s restart of export led to high market pressure, and the high-end market price fell slightly. The profit of downstream factories is still under pressure, so it is difficult for butadiene market to get demand support in the short term. Under the expectation of supply increment, the resistance for the market to continue to rise is obvious. In the middle of the quarter, the domestic butadiene market continued to climb, the external market continued to be high, the domestic manufacturers had no obvious inventory pressure, and the state-owned synthetic rubber devices operated stably. In the downstream of the new production supply contract in East China, there is no spot flow into the trade link, and Sinopec’s internal supply is tight, so butadiene market performance is relatively strong. By the end of the quarter, the high prices of butadiene related products in the spot market were mostly sold, and the market atmosphere began to show caution. The market was slightly weaker. However, the price increase of Panjin’s source of goods has driven the prices of other export manufacturers in the north to keep pace with the increase. In addition, the spot resources in East China have not been significantly supplemented yet. The price increase of middlemen has been driven up with the suppliers, and the increase is large. At the end of September, the trading atmosphere weakened, the downstream just needs to be dominated, the buyer and the seller return to prudent operation. In terms of supply, northeast factories continued to export goods, the market kept a wait-and-see attitude towards high-priced goods, and the overall offer was slightly adjusted;
3. Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: the overall performance of domestic ABS market in the third quarter was volatile and adjusted. The cost side of the upstream three materials showed a fair performance in this quarter, which supported the cost side of ABS to a certain extent, among which styrene boosted the rise of ABS. In terms of supply, the spot supply is sufficient in this quarter. At the end of the quarter, the environmental protection will affect the factory operation rate, which will affect the factory operation rate. The supply will be affected. The end of the quarter is the traditional peak season of ABS. The downstream home appliance industry has entered into a state of active stock. The demand for ABS has increased, and there is a large amount of on-site transactions. Although spot prices in some regions have declined at the end of the quarter, the overall strong correction has made ABS market return to the level at the beginning of the quarter.