On October 17, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was temporarily stable

On October 17, the HFA commodity index was 88.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.80% from 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.61% from 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

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According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9780 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprise reflects that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field is sufficient at present, and the goods in the hydrofluoric acid field can not be moved in the near future. Due to the lack of improvement in downstream demand, the prices of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers are stuck, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level of volatility.

EDTA

The price of fluorite in the upstream market remained low. As of the 17th, the price of fluorite was 2866.67 yuan / ton. The decline in the price of upstream raw materials had a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market was at a low level due to the impact of the lower price of fluorite. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market is general, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 remains low. From the perspective of market supply, the market price of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers maintain the air-conditioner, and the demand only decreases but not increases. The main price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is at a low level, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level, the market demand for refrigerants is reduced, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market declines. However, the transaction price in the market is low, and businesses purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

The transaction situation in the refrigerant market is poor, the unit operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low, the demand for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market is limited, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, but the manufacturer reflects that the loss is relatively serious, and Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may maintain a low level.

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OPEC hinted that it would further reduce production, leading to slightly higher oil prices

Oil prices rose on Wednesday following gains in the stock market, with investors hoping for a possible brexit agreement between the UK and the European Union, and signs that OPEC and its allies may further curb supply, Reuters reported.

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But gains were limited as concerns about the global slowdown continued.

Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, rose 21 cents to $58.95 a barrel in 0310 GMT, about 0.3% higher than the closing price of the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate rose 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $52.97 a barrel.

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York, said: “with the mitigation of the two major tail risks of global demand (Sino US trade war and brexit), oil began to show some bullish positions.”

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“Although it seems impossible to reach a broader trade agreement in the short term, the risk of a trade war between China and the United States is gradually diminishing.”

The final talks between the UK and the EU to reach a brexit agreement ahead of this week’s EU leaders’ summit have lasted from midnight to Wednesday, but it is not clear whether the UK can avoid the planned brexit on October 31.

Analysts said any agreement to avoid a “hard” or non agreed brexit should boost economic growth, which in turn should drive up oil and prices.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammed bajindo said that OPEC and its allies will “do everything possible” to maintain the stability of the oil market beyond 2020.

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Aluminum ingot prices stop falling and rise, with little downward space

1. Trade name: standard aluminum ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (October 16, 2019): 13896.67 yuan / ton

3. Analysis points:

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Since the middle of September, aluminum prices have been falling continuously. On the one hand, the production capacity that was shut down for some reasons in the early stage has gradually recovered, and the domestic supply side pressure has been reflected in the market in advance.

It is reported that in the near future, about 50000 tons of hydropower capacity in the western part of Qinghai has been resumed; 500000 tons of affected capacity in the early stage of Xinjiang Xinfa has been resumed one after another; 450000 tons of capacity has been resumed in Weiqiao, Shandong, and the remaining capacity is still in the process of recovery; 250000 tons of capacity in the second phase of new Hengfeng, Baotou City, is expected to start power on and put into operation on October 15. After October, 200000 tons of creative metals, 100000 tons of Yunnan Shenhuo phase I, 150000 tons of Yunnan Qiya, 150000 tons of 100 mines and 250000 tons of Guangyuan Linfeng are planned to be put into production again, totaling about 850000 tons.

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On the other hand, the main reason is that the early news of Indonesia’s ban on bauxite led to a sharp rise in aluminum prices. Based on the release of news that Indonesia’s bauxite accounts for 1-20% of the total import of domestic bauxite, the market estimates whether Indonesia’s ban on bauxite or not has limited impact on aluminum prices, and the expectation of long aluminum prices is broken. The price of aluminum ingot gradually returns to the actual supply and demand.

4. Future forecast: in the near future, the alumina price is relatively strong, the aluminum ingot cost support is strong, the superimposed social inventory is significantly lower than that in the early stage, and the overall fundamentals are good. In addition, at present, the aluminum ingot price basically returns the increase in the early stage, and the downward space is expected to be limited. In the later stage, attention is paid to the actual market situation.

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Silicone market fell – 13.49% after the festival, reaching the bottom and waiting to rise

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, by October 16, the average price of organosilicon DMC was about 17266 yuan / ton, down by – 13.49% compared with October 8, the first day after the festival. At present, the market price of organosilicon DMC is about 17000-18000 yuan / ton.

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II. Market analysis

Products: after the national day, the silicone market set off waves. On the first day after the festival, on October 8, the silicone market ran smoothly. On October 9, with the increase of inquiry volume, the price fell rapidly. After the festival, the price dropped sharply, with the highest down quotation of 2000 yuan / ton. The situation of goods cleaning appeared. The organic silicon products of monomer enterprises are directly close to the cost price to receive orders. The transaction price of organic silicon DMC is as low as 16500 yuan / ton (cash delivery). The sharp drop in price has led to a positive mentality of downstream stock up, which has aroused the enthusiasm of most downstream enterprises for rush purchase. Most monomer enterprises have obtained the first large order after the festival. On October 10, a small number of factories began to call back the quotation, and the quotation was increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. Due to the increase of the order quantity, the big monomer factories had a clear attitude of looking forward to the increase. The monomer factories announced that they began to arrange the production one after another, and the later order price was expected to rise back. On October 14, the price of the mechanical silicon DMC products of most monomer factories was still stable, and the price increase was not obvious. On October 16, there was an economic report. The latest quotation of the seller is lowered again. Up to now, the silicone market as a whole is still at the bottom to be increased.

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Industry chain: after the national day, the price of raw rubber, 107 rubber and silicone oil of downstream products of silicone DMC fluctuated with the fluctuation of the overall silicone market. In the early stage of the festival, affected by the overall decline of the silicone market, the transaction price of raw rubber was as low as around 17200 yuan / ton (delivered by spot exchange), and silicone oil made a large profit synchronously. The offer of 107 rubber brand enterprises was as low as 17500-18500 yuan / ton (delivered by spot exchange). To), the low price promotes the purchase enthusiasm of most terminal downstream enterprises, and each single enterprise increases the intention order. In the next few days, with the price of organosilicon DMC rising, the price of downstream products also fell back. At present, DMC, 107 rubber, raw rubber, silicone oil, etc. are in a continuous rising trend.

III. future forecast

Business analysts believe that: it is expected that in late October, the organosilicon DMC may usher in a pick-up.

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The supply of soda ash is sufficient and the market is stable for the time being

According to the survey data of the business agency, the market of soda ash in East China was temporarily stable on the 16th, with an average market price of about 1776.67 yuan / ton. On October 15, the commodity index of light soda ash was 91.11, up 1.37 points from yesterday, down 22.70% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 44.28% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

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In terms of supply: this week, the soda plant of Kunshan Jinggang Industrial Group Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance, the price of soda was raised, the plant area in Mengzhou, Jinshan has not yet been put into operation, Jiangsu Huachang and Zhongyan Jilantai were shut down for maintenance, and the overall starting load of Tianjin Bohua and Henan Jinshan enterprises was high; after the national day, the downstream users were not enthusiastic about taking the goods, and the attitude of purchasing on demand was obvious, and the storage of soda plant increased. Add.

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Demand: weak downstream demand of light alkali, sufficient inventory of glass manufacturers, little change in demand, general downstream market, weak support for soda market.

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the starting load of domestic soda ash manufacturers has remained high recently, and the supply of goods is sufficient. At present, the stocks of soda ash manufacturers are mainly light soda, and the end users mainly purchase on demand. The demand of downstream float glass for heavy alkali has little change, and it is expected that the market of soda ash will be mainly consolidated in the later stage.

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N-butanol market slightly declined after the National Day

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 15, the average price of n-butanol in the mainstream area was 6350 yuan / ton (including tax). Compared with last Monday (October 8), the price of n-butanol in the mainstream area decreased by 166 yuan / ton (including tax), down by – 2.56%. At present, the price of n-butanol in the mainstream in China is around 6300-6700 yuan / ton.

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II. Market analysis

Product: after the national day, the n-butanol market has been in a state of continuous shock. On Monday (October 14) this week, the overall market was stable, and the price was slightly reduced again. However, due to the expectation of northern manufacturers, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market has been weak, and the downstream just needs replenishment. At present, the quotation of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is stable. The ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is around 6400 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in East China is 6650 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of South China is around 6850 yuan / ton.

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Industry chain: in early October, it is the National Day holiday. Due to the policy of limited production and restriction, the price of propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, is generally stable during the holiday, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of enterprises rose. At present, the market turnover is about 7450-7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7450 yuan / ton. Refinery stocks are slightly tight.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that the market price and the overall trend of n-butanol products will rise in the late October on the premise of the recovery of the operating rate.

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On October 15, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China continued to decline

On October 15, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 66.42, down 0.13 points from yesterday, down 44.71% from 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 37.17% from 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In recent years, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market continues to decline. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is low. The downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure increases, and the high-end transaction is blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is declining. In East China, 6700-7000 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and 6100-6300 yuan / ton for naphthalene process; in North China, 6700-6900 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for phthalic anhydride market. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of phthalic anhydride is also strong. The demand for phthalic anhydride decreased and the price trend of phthalic anhydride decreased slightly.

EDTA

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6900 yuan / ton. Due to the restart of maintenance devices of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods inside the site has increased, the import price of phthalic anhydride in the port area has declined, and the quotation has declined. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port has declined, the port inventory is low, and the quotation of phthalic anhydride in the external market has fluctuated and fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are given. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market continued to decline due to the drop of upstream raw material phthalic acid price. The downstream DOP price is slightly lower, the price of isooctanol is lower, and the DOP cost is lower. The price of DOP is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and declining, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is slightly reduced to 7600-7900 yuan / ton, the downstream price trend is declining, but the upstream ox price is firm, affected by the cost support, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a low volatility in the later period.

EDTA 2Na

ABS price fell in the third quarter and then recovered (7.1-9.30)

I. price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the spot price of ABS was adjusted in the third quarter of 2019, and the domestic market recovered from the decline in the traditional peak season. As of September 30, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13500.00 yuan / ton, up 1.50% from the beginning of the quarter.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

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Industry chain: in all upstream aspects of ABS, the price of pure benzene in the upstream of styrene at the beginning of the quarter is subject to the fluctuation or maintenance of stability or slight decline of international crude oil price, while the downstream purchase is flat and just needs to be maintained. Since July, the number of imported styrene ships has increased, gradually entering the domestic market, the port inventory has been expected, and styrene manufacturers have no negative production plan for the time being, which is subject to the decrease of cost and the gradual increase of supply. At the beginning of the quarter, the price of styrene fell mainly. By the beginning of August, the international oil price and pure benzene had not improved, falling continuously. Styrene market prices were forced to follow. In addition, domestic enterprises are stepping up inventory removal, most enterprises are reducing prices and promoting sales, and the intention of the merchants to ship goods is relatively high, and more profits are allowed to go single. The negative trend was not positive until mid August when Sino US trade eased. The price of styrene fell back, but the downstream main demand still adopts the strategy of rigid demand procurement. At the end of August and the beginning of September, the international crude oil market continued to be positive, the overall oil price fluctuated upward, and the US gold market rose, providing styrene cost support. After the whole styrene market rebounded, it remained at a high level, while the profit margin of the production enterprises was slightly reduced due to the impact of higher prices of pure benzene and ethylene. At the end of the quarter, the supply of styrene in the spot market turned to be tight, import goods decreased significantly, and the offer price strengthened. The international oil market fluctuated violently. Electronic disk, US dollar styrene, etc. rose with the spot price. Until the end of last ten days, the styrene inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was abundant, the domestic overhaul styrene factories gradually resumed supply, and the spot supply of styrene market was relatively saturated, while the enthusiasm of taking goods in the downstream decreased, and the high-end price gradually fell, resulting in the domestic styrene price from rising to falling. In the near future, the market is still profitable in terms of goods holding and production links. After rapid growth, the market has no support, and the market has fallen back.

In terms of acrylonitrile related production, the spot supply was slightly tight at the beginning of the quarter, and the market was relatively strong. Under the tight supply, the merchants are reluctant to sell, but the demand is weak and the downstream is not enough. The weak demand offsets the tight supply, and the supply and demand in the field are basically balanced. As a result, it does not bring a wave of market for acrylonitrile. The same downstream rubber market is weak, some private enterprises stop. Acrylonitrile inventory has been reduced to a low level, so the impact on the spot price of acrylonitrile is limited, and the mentality of the industry is stable. In the quarter, the price of acrylonitrile in China was relatively stable, and the market was flat. At the end of the quarter, the spot market of acrylonitrile was basically in a strong price operation. It will take time for the new production line to be put into production for export of spot goods. The tight performance of spot supply remains unchanged, and the intention of traders to hold up prices is obvious. Downstream operators are cautious, among which acrylic plant operating rate is not high, replenishment to maintain rigid demand;

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For butadiene, the domestic market rose strongly at the beginning of the quarter. The reason is that it is difficult for imported goods to effectively supplement the domestic market due to the narrowing of the price difference between the internal and external market, and some of the goods are exported to Korea for arbitrage, which aggravates the shortage of domestic supply. Sinopec’s continuous price rise in the East China supply cycle has significantly boosted the spot market. The export volume of northeast manufacturers has shrunk, and the news of kutai’s load reduction and srbon’s plan to start maintenance has been released intensively, which has boosted the domestic butadiene spot market to a strong and high level. Although the downstream rubber market is weak, the supply of low-priced butadiene market is hard to find, and some of them just need passive follow-up. With the price rising, domestic businesses are relatively active in shipping, and Fushun Petrochemical’s restart of export led to high market pressure, and the high-end market price fell slightly. The profit of downstream factories is still under pressure, so it is difficult for butadiene market to get demand support in the short term. Under the expectation of supply increment, the resistance for the market to continue to rise is obvious. In the middle of the quarter, the domestic butadiene market continued to climb, the external market continued to be high, the domestic manufacturers had no obvious inventory pressure, and the state-owned synthetic rubber devices operated stably. In the downstream of the new production supply contract in East China, there is no spot flow into the trade link, and Sinopec’s internal supply is tight, so butadiene market performance is relatively strong. By the end of the quarter, the high prices of butadiene related products in the spot market were mostly sold, and the market atmosphere began to show caution. The market was slightly weaker. However, the price increase of Panjin’s source of goods has driven the prices of other export manufacturers in the north to keep pace with the increase. In addition, the spot resources in East China have not been significantly supplemented yet. The price increase of middlemen has been driven up with the suppliers, and the increase is large. At the end of September, the trading atmosphere weakened, the downstream just needs to be dominated, the buyer and the seller return to prudent operation. In terms of supply, northeast factories continued to export goods, the market kept a wait-and-see attitude towards high-priced goods, and the overall offer was slightly adjusted;

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: the overall performance of domestic ABS market in the third quarter was volatile and adjusted. The cost side of the upstream three materials showed a fair performance in this quarter, which supported the cost side of ABS to a certain extent, among which styrene boosted the rise of ABS. In terms of supply, the spot supply is sufficient in this quarter. At the end of the quarter, the environmental protection will affect the factory operation rate, which will affect the factory operation rate. The supply will be affected. The end of the quarter is the traditional peak season of ABS. The downstream home appliance industry has entered into a state of active stock. The demand for ABS has increased, and there is a large amount of on-site transactions. Although spot prices in some regions have declined at the end of the quarter, the overall strong correction has made ABS market return to the level at the beginning of the quarter.

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Interregional fluctuations in China’s domestic ethanol market (10.8-10.12)

Price Trend

This week’s domestic ethanol market has seen both ups and downs. According to business association monitoring data, the price of domestic ethanol market at the beginning of the week was 5400 yuan/ton, which was 0.26% lower than the same period last month and 3.76% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

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Products: This week, the domestic ethanol market has seen both ups and downs. Limited transportation during the festival, wine enterprises in Northeast China mostly embarked on cargo or shipping, the speed of shipment slowed down, some small factories in Heilongjiang Province resumed supply within the week, the price was slightly soft, coupled with the price of raw material corn constantly bottoming out, the price of liquor enterprises was low, this week the offer of large factories was temporarily stable, and there was a little discussion on individual core orders; after the holidays in central China, liquor enterprises were still restored in the early period of suspension. In addition, the transportation of goods from other places is limited, which is good for the delivery level in the yard. Some factories queue up to pick up goods and the center of gravity rises sharply. The supply in East China maintains a low level, and there are not many start-up liquor enterprises, and the supply of some large factories is slightly reduced. The liquor enterprises are in a positive mood. Within a week, the ethyl ester plant in Yankuang Mine in Shandong Province stopped short, and the level of goods in large factories is not affected much; Jinyuan in South China, some molasses and liquors are out of service. In the recovery of enterprises and installations, there is not much alcohol in stock and the focus of delivery is shifted upward. after

Industry chain: Upstream, corn: Affected by the sufficient supply of corn in the whole market, the weekly average price ring ratio of corn continued to decline. In terms of the market, CBOT corn futures were narrower and stronger. Summer maize harvesting in North China has reached its peak in the new season, and early-maturing maize has also been harvested in some parts of Northeast China. Under the background of abundant supply, spot prices continue to fall, and the weekly cycle is declining.

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In terms of downstream ethyl acetate, the domestic market for ethyl acetate has remained stable this week. Entering the market after the festival, no matter the manufacturer or the intermediate trader, or even the downstream customers are more cautious. On the one hand, the startup rate of raw material acetic acid industry has risen sharply, and many pre-parking and maintenance devices have restarted at the end of September, coupled with the accumulation of inventory during the National Day, the downward pressure is greater; on the other hand, the startup rate of ethyl acetate industry is also not low, although some of the devices in the vacation have been reduced, but the supply side is still in a bad position. After the festival, the downstream replenishment of the market is slightly supported, and the delivery is temporarily stable. In the early stage, the factory mainly relies on the delivery and warehousing. Although late trading has slowed down, but Shandong Yankuang two sets of devices accidentally stopped, giving the market some confidence, the latter half of the northern market has a mind of exploring, but the market interval changes little, and Shandong Yankuang Zhou tailings restart driving, short-term market rise is still very difficult.

3. Future Market Forecast

With the relief of pressure from environmental security inspection, the increase of supply expectations and the increase of liquidity of supply sources, as the price of corn falls, Northeast goods are sent to Likong liquor enterprises to boost their price sentiment. Ethanol analysts of business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market will be stable or weak in the short term.

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Soda soda price in East China increased slightly on October 14

On October 13, the light soda commodity index was 89.23, which was the same as yesterday. It was 24.29% lower than the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 41.30% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

EDTA

According to the survey data of business associations, the soda market in eastern China rose slightly on the 14th, with the average market price of about 1750.00 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from yesterday. This week, domestic soda market prices in Hebei region are slightly lower, the mainstream price of light alkali is 1450-1680 yuan/ton, heavy alkali is not quoted, the actual transaction price can be further discussed. Domestic soda ash market is running smoothly. Heavy caustic soda market consolidation is the main, manufacturers shipment situation is still acceptable.

Soda analysts from business associations believe that the overall trend of downstream glass market is still acceptable. Soda market will operate in a narrow range in the short term, specifically looking at the downstream market demand.

EDTA 2Na