1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose in shock this week. On February 11, the price was 7140 yuan / ton; On Friday (February 18), the price was 7270 yuan / ton, up 1.82% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 55.67%.
2、 Analysis and comment
In the first half of the week, crude oil continued to rise, the price rose broadly, the terminal gasoline industry followed, and mixed xylene rose significantly. In the second half of the week, the crude oil fluctuated widely and the support of p-mixed xylene weakened; In addition, due to the weakness of downstream receiving, the price of mixed xylene was difficult to maintain and the price fell.
In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market fell sharply this week. On Thursday (February 17), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 932.5 US dollars / ton, down 29 US dollars / ton or 3.02% from February 10; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 958 US dollars / ton, down 22 US dollars / ton or 2.24% from February 10.
In terms of crude oil, in the early stage, due to the escalation of tensions in Russia and Ukraine, the market was worried that the crude oil supply might be affected, and the international oil price rose continuously and broadly. However, there is still uncertainty about the situation in Russia and Ukraine, new progress has been made in Iran’s nuclear negotiations, crude oil demand is still improving, uncertainty about the trend of crude oil is increasing, long and short are intertwined, and oil prices fluctuate widely. As of February 18, Brent fell 0.9 USD / barrel, or 0.95%; WTI fell $2.03/barrel, or 2.18%.
Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this week. On Friday (February 18), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 8000 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week and increased by 40.35% compared with the same period last year. As of February 17, the closing prices in Asia were US $1035-1037 / T FOB Korea and US $1053-1055 / T CFR China.
In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China remained stable this week. On Friday (February 18), the price of ox in East China was 7800 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week and up 56% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 9035.2 yuan / ton on February 11 and 9176.8 yuan / ton on February 18, up 1.57% from last week and 50% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, positive: tight crude oil supply is still the main theme, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain; Bearish: Iran’s nuclear negotiations have made new progress. The uncertainty of crude oil trend has increased. Continue to pay attention to the relationship between crude oil supply and demand, geopolitical impact, global epidemic, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
The uncertainty of crude oil trend has increased in the near future; The terminal gasoline price callback and the follow-up of mixed xylene weakened; In addition, mixed xylene shipments successively arrived in Hong Kong, and the supply increased in the later stage. Overall, the downward pressure of mixed xylene increased. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and device dynamics, downstream market and device dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.