Monthly Archives: July 2025

Metal silicon market price rises in July

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 30th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 10100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1370 yuan/ton or 15.81% compared to July 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 8730 yuan/ton).

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in July, the domestic silicon metal (# 441) market as a whole experienced a broad upward trend. During the month, the market prices of metallic silicon (# 441) in many regions of China have continuously adjusted upwards, and the overall focus of market negotiations has continued to rebound. This is also the first consecutive downturn in the market since the beginning of the year. By the end of July, the overall market price of silicon metal (# 441) had finally returned to the 10000 yuan mark, with a price increase of around 1000-1500 yuan/ton during the month. As of July 30th, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 10100-10300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 10000-10300 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 10100-10400 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is 10000-10200 yuan/ton, in Sichuan it is 9600-9800 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is 10400-10600 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of inventory: As of April, the overall silicon metal market has been in a slow destocking state. The overall destocking performance of the market in June and July was still good. According to incomplete statistics, as of July 24th, the reference social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was around 535000 tons, a decrease of 77000 tons from the end of the first quarter. Therefore, there has been an improvement in the overall inventory pressure in the current market.
Supply side: Silicon companies in the northern region have reduced production due to equipment, while the southern region has entered a period of abundant water. The overall pace of resuming production is normal, and market supply has decreased in the north and increased in the south, resulting in an overall increase in supply and output.
In terms of demand: Currently, downstream organic silicon enterprises mainly digest the inventory of raw materials in the early stage of metal silicon. In mid to late July, the overall production of organic silicon monomers decreased, and new orders for high priced raw materials were average. Polycrystalline silicon and aluminum silicon were mainly purchased on demand. In August, downstream production expectations have slightly decreased, and demand for metal silicon is expected to increase.
Macroscopically speaking, after the recent proposal of the “anti internal competition and industrial integration” initiative, the sentiment of the metal silicon market has improved, the overall self-discipline of the industry has increased, it has refused vicious competition, the mentality of industry players has improved, and macro news has boosted the recovery of market prices.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, with large stability and small fluctuations in supply and demand, and overall transmission is still acceptable. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly adjust its operation, and specific attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news and the impact of macro information on the market.

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Macro game: Nickel prices fluctuate in July

Price trend:

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 29th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122683 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.81% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.03%.
Rising at the beginning of the month: The disturbance of Indonesia’s nickel ore quota policy, coupled with the decline in LME and domestic inventories, supported the short-term rebound of nickel prices.
Mid month oscillation: Trump’s tariff threat, rising macro risk aversion, coupled with weak demand, suppresses rebound momentum.
At the end of the month, there was a surge and a decline: the domestic “anti internal competition” policy stimulated the sentiment of industrial products. On July 24th, nickel prices hit a high point of the month, and the sentiment gradually dissipated. Recently, nickel prices have fallen sharply.
Macro level: Interweaving of long and short positions, intensifying market competition
Positive factors
Domestic policy support: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will launch a stable growth plan for the steel and non-ferrous industries, emphasizing the elimination of outdated production capacity and boosting market expectations for supply side reforms. The completion of negotiations on the China ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 has benefited the circulation of regional raw materials. The manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.7% in June, and the new order index expanded, indicating a marginal recovery in the manufacturing industry.
Overseas negative pressure suppression
US tariff shock (core negative): Trump announced the imposition of 15% -40% tariffs on multiple countries starting from August 1st, leading to a rise in market risk aversion. If Russia and Ukraine fail to reach an agreement, the United States may impose 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russia, further disrupting global trade.
The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut has cooled down: the annual CPI rate rose to 2.7% in June, and the core CPI rose to 2.9%. The market’s probability of a rate cut in September has decreased from 65% to 58%, and the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed metal prices.
Supply side: Indonesia’s policy game+loosening of mineral prices
Indonesian nickel ore quota: 360 million tons have been approved, but only 120 million tons were consumed in the first half of the year, weakening the willingness of mines to raise prices.
Supply recovery in the Philippines: With the end of the rainy season and an increase in nickel ore shipments, Chinese port inventories have accumulated. The FOB price for 1.3% grade nickel ore is $31 per wet ton, a month on month decline.
Cost side decline: Indonesia’s nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 1.8% in July, while the price of nickel ore in the Philippines weakened, resulting in an improvement in smelting profit margins.
Inventory changes: LME nickel inventory increased by 906 tons to 204912 tons during the cycle, while domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 659 tons to 21880 tons during the cycle. Global inventory has shown significant growth, and the surplus pattern has not changed.
Demand side: Stainless steel off-season+new energy substitution suppression
Stainless steel industry: In July, high temperatures suppressed demand, resulting in a 2.87% decrease in production schedules for 43 stainless steel plants compared to the previous month, with limited support for nickel demand.
Policy support: Multiple departments are cracking down on “internal competition”. On July 29th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was 13017.50 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 1.9%, but inventory turnover is slow.
New energy (ternary batteries): Subsidies for new energy vehicles will continue, but the proportion of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries will increase, weakening the increase in nickel consumption.
Future outlook:
The nickel price is still dominated by macro and policy factors, and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve’s movements in August and the effectiveness of domestic policies.

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Weak supply-demand relationship, basic stability of melamine market maintained

This week, the domestic melamine market stabilized and remained stagnant. As of July 28th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5825.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06% compared to the beginning of this month (5887.50 yuan/ton).

Melamine

Recently, the domestic melamine market has shown a weak consolidation trend, and there are multiple factors that contribute to the price game. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, upstream production enterprises stimulate market transactions by actively lowering their quotations (with low-end prices reaching the range of 5200-5400 yuan/ton), coupled with periodic replenishment of international orders, effectively digesting enterprise inventory levels and gradually reducing some low-priced sources to a reasonable range.
The decline in urea raw material prices has weakened cost support, coupled with the shortened order cycle of production enterprises, jointly suppressing the upward space of melamine prices. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in downstream demand, and processing companies generally adopt on-demand procurement strategies due to sufficient low-priced inventory and low operating rates in the early stage, leading to a “price sensitive” stalemate in the market. Under multiple factors, the melamine market is expected to maintain a weak balance in the short term, and the subsequent trend is expected to be weak.
The utilization rate of melamine production capacity has slightly increased this week. Under the support of orders on hand, the current shipping pressure of production enterprises is limited. But as orders are gradually delivered, market supply is expected to increase. Downstream resistance to high priced raw materials is evident, with low acceptance. To maintain shipments, manufacturers may need to adjust their pricing strategies and mindset.
The mainstream price of urea in the current market remains stable, but prices in some areas have loosened and declined. As of July 28th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% compared to the beginning of this month (1823.00 yuan/ton). The urea market has entered a wait-and-see stalemate. Although there is a demand for replenishment downstream, due to a cautious attitude, small order follow-up is mainly focused on. The pressure on the supply side remains unabated, with Nissan maintaining a high level. At the same time, the inverted international prices and weakened coal expectations have intensified the bearish sentiment in the market. However, with the support of pending orders from the factory and low social inventory, prices have temporarily stabilized. Under the game of various forces, it is expected that the short-term market will maintain a volatile and weak trend.
Overall, the melamine market lacks strong positive support. In the short term, relying on existing advance orders, the market will maintain a stalemate. However, as the orders are gradually digested, the supply and demand sides will once again engage in a game. The future price trend will depend on the dynamic changes in supply and demand, fluctuations in raw material costs, and the evolution of market participants’ mentality.

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Insufficient cost support leads to a weak decline in the market price of nylon filament

Last week (July 21-27, 2025), the upstream raw material of nylon filament, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly settlement price, was lowered. The PA6 slicing market was weak and deadlocked, with prices continuing to decline slightly. Cost support weakened, and downstream enterprises held multiple rigid demand orders. The demand side did not improve, and the activity of on-site trading was poor, resulting in a weak decline in nylon filament market prices.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Nylon filament prices are weak and declining
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (July 21-27, 2025), the price of nylon filament fell weakly. As of July 27, 2025, DTY (premium product) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region; 70D/24F) quoted 14320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a weekly decrease of 0.97%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 12050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, with a weekly decrease of 1.23%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 14900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous period and a weekly decline of 1.00%.
Insufficient support on the raw material side
In terms of cost: Last week (July 21-27, 2025), the spot market price of caprolactam was weak during the week. The weekly settlement price of caprolactam by Sinopec was 9050 yuan/ton (interest free for six-month acceptance), a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous period. The market price of nylon PA6 slices was weak and stagnant, with insufficient cost support. As of July 27, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society is 8950 yuan/ton, mainly due to weak price consolidation. During the week, the market price of high-speed spun nylon PA6 slices slightly decreased, with a weekly drop of 0.96%, mainly due to weak cost support.
Supply and demand: During the week, some nylon filament manufacturers have lowered their operating rates, resulting in a decline in overall market supply. However, industry inventory levels continue to increase, leading to poor performance on the supply side; The demand in the end market is weak, and some downstream manufacturers have reduced production or switched production, resulting in a decrease in demand for nylon filament. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, and many parties are following suit with rigid demand. Many industry players are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.
Future forecast
Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the expectation for pure benzene is weak, and slice manufacturers have low enthusiasm for purchasing caprolactam. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by weak and low-level consolidation next week; In terms of PA6 slicing, cost support is limited, and the supply level of PA6 slicing market may continue to improve. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is expected that the market price of nylon PA6 slicing will weakly decline.
Supply and demand: July belongs to the off-season of traditional demand in the market, and coupled with the lack of signs of improvement in terminal market demand, downstream market procurement enthusiasm is not high. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for nylon filament market next month may decrease. If there is no significant improvement in demand, under the pressure of large inventory, some nylon filament manufacturers may have the possibility of reducing production capacity, while the industry continues to release new production capacity. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of nylon filament market will decrease next month.

Overall, both the upstream raw material caprolactam spot market and the nylon PA6 chip market are likely to continue to decline, with a lack of cost support and difficulty in improving downstream market demand. The demand side is dragging down market trends, and under the dual negative factors, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market price will mainly consolidate weakly.

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Copper prices fluctuated and fell in July

1、 Trend analysis

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices showed an “M” – shaped trend in July. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 80235 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 79538.33 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.87% and a year-on-year increase of 8.51%.
According to the current chart of Shengyi Society, the spot price of copper in July was basically higher than the futures price, and the main contract is the expected price two months later. The expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly in July. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 124775 tons, up 36.7% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, in early July, the Trump administration announced the decision to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1st, which caused the copper market to rise first and then fall in July. The current focus is on the 50% metal import tariff that the US will implement next Friday. The tariff rate is very high and the implementation window is very short, especially for copper products, which has not yet been fully clarified, causing a severe shock in the global copper market.
Supply side: Overseas mining disturbances continue, and traders are accelerating their shipments to the US before August 1st, resulting in tight spot supply. Copper concentrate spot TC continues to fluctuate in the negative range.
Downstream: The overall operating rate of cable companies remains stable, and home appliance sales are boosted by national subsidy policies and 618 promotions (refrigerators and air conditioners have performed well). The high production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to drive copper demand. However, in the current off-season of the industry, spot consumption is weak, and the off-season atmosphere on the demand side is deep, resulting in low actual purchasing sentiment downstream.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have increased more or less in August in the past five years, and there is uncertainty in copper prices in August this year due to the impact of tariffs.
In summary, the current tight supply situation in overseas mining has not changed, and domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low. Coupled with the low social inventory of copper in Shanghai and active transactions in the spot market, the tight supply of goods and downstream replenishment at low prices have formed support. However, global macro uncertainty and policy turning points are approaching, and it is expected that copper prices will mainly experience strong fluctuations.

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On July 24th, the price of polyester filament increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price center of polyester filament increased by 50-100 on July 24th. The production and sales rate of the sample enterprises was 107.1%, an increase of 54.8% compared to the 23rd. The orders waiting for inquiries in the early stage were placed in a concentrated manner, and the sales volume increased significantly compared to the previous days. The mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) prices ranging from 6600-6800 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) prices ranging from 7700-8050 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) prices ranging from 6800-7100 yuan/ton.
With the recovery of commodity sentiment, the cost side support is relatively strong. Due to the tight circulation of local sources, the market price of polyester filament has risen. However, considering the continuous maintenance of essential procurement downstream and the overnight decline in crude oil prices, as of the early morning of July 24th, the electronic price of WTI August crude oil futures in the United States fell by $0.53, a decrease of 0.81%, to $64.78 per barrel. The London Brent crude oil futures price for September delivery fell by $0.69, or 1.00%, to $68.03 per barrel, with limited cost support and cautious market sentiment in pursuit of gains, resulting in limited intraday gains.
Today, polyester filament yarn rebounded and stopped falling under the drive of reduced production and price increases, as well as phased replenishment of inventory. However, weak demand and high inventory have constrained the overall upward potential. Business Society believes that the sustainability of the short-term rebound depends on the recovery of downstream operating rates and the intensity of production cuts. The price decline space in the short term is relatively small, and it is expected to remain stable or moderately strong.

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Weak demand remains unchanged, PP market fluctuates and consolidates

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market has been fluctuating recently, with prices of some brand products fluctuating. As of July 23rd, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7303.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.06% compared to the price level at the beginning of July.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

price trend
In terms of raw materials:
Since the beginning of July, the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, as well as the announcement of OPEC+production plans, have put some pressure on international oil prices. At present, the market’s concerns about the risk of crude oil supply interruption have eased, and price fluctuations are mainly being consolidated. At the same time, the consumption of propane is sluggish, and it has followed the previous decline of crude oil. The current price position is not high, and the cost support for PDH manufacturing enterprises has fallen. In the early stage, propylene production and resumption of work were common, and the market was under pressure to decline. Recently, it has rebounded at a low level, but the increase is limited. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials at the end of July showed weak support for costs.
Supply side:
In July, there was a mutual occurrence of maintenance and resumption of work in domestic PP enterprises, as well as the release of production capacity. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has slightly decreased by 1% to 76% recently, with an average weekly total output of nearly 780000 tons. The supply of goods remains abundant, with inventory levels hovering around 780000 tons and average digestion. Overall, the improvement in support for spot prices from the PP supply side is very limited.
In terms of demand:
July is the traditional off-season for polypropylene consumption, and the demand for PP continues to be weak, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere on the market. Merchants have hardly seen any advance stocking operations, and the on-site situation remains in a state of urgent need, with a focus on on-demand use. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises is already at the off-season level, and downstream PP enterprises in China are struggling to start production. Materials used in construction, agriculture and other fields are also at a low level and flat. On site new orders tend to be scattered small orders and contract deliveries, with flat liquidity of supply and slow release of PP demand. In the context of weak export and domestic demand, the demand side of PP has not provided strong support for spot prices.
Future forecast
Recently, the domestic PP market prices have fluctuated and consolidated. Fundamentally speaking, the overall strength of upstream raw materials is weak, and their overall support for PP is poor. The industry load is stable with small fluctuations, and there is an expectation of abundant supply in the future. Consumption is at a low season level. The contradiction between supply and demand and the decrease in cost value are combined, and the mentality of operators is bearish. It is expected that the PP market will continue to be stagnant in the short term.

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Weak demand performance, polyester staple fiber prices fluctuate downward

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber has fluctuated downward in the past month. As of July 22, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.82% from June 23.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

The demand side performance in June was average, with short fiber prices mainly following fluctuations in raw materials. In early July, short fiber enterprises independently reduced the proportion of contracts and promoted the phased repair of processing fees. However, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal textile orders, downstream yarn factories have continued to experience a decline in load, resulting in a shift in the center of gravity of short fiber prices.
The cost side support has retreated, the trend of crude oil has weakened, and there are many external unstable factors. The overall trend of commodities is sluggish. As of July 21, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.95 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.21 per barrel.
Recently, the operation of PTA plants in China has been stable. In the second half of the year, a total of 6.2 million tons of new PTA production capacity will be put into the market, while the downstream polyester sector will only add more than 3 million tons of new production capacity. The supply-demand imbalance will be further highlighted, and there are still expectations of inventory accumulation. The price performance is weak, with the average PTA market price in East China at 4817 yuan/ton as of July 22, a decrease of 8.8% from June 23.
The downstream yarn industry has shown weak performance, partly due to the impact of high temperature and high heat environment. In order to ensure worker safety and reduce energy consumption, yarn factories generally adopt the strategy of “reducing shifts to ensure production”; On the one hand, the procurement of non essential consumer goods such as clothing and home textiles has shrunk, resulting in a decrease in foreign trade orders, which directly affects exports.
Business analysts believe that the fluctuating news of tariffs, geopolitical factors, and other factors have led to a wide range of fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the lack of substantial benefits for PTA supply and demand has limited cost support. Under the combined off-season, the terminal textile orders continue to decrease, and it is difficult for the demand side to improve in the short term. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will remain weakly adjusted.

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The melamine market is experiencing a narrow downward trend

This week, the domestic melamine market continued its weak trend, with a downward shift in price focus and a light trading atmosphere. As of July 21st, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5837.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to the beginning of this month (5887.50 yuan/ton). Compared with the high of 6875 yuan/ton in the same period last year, it has dropped significantly by 19.6% year-on-year, with a price difference of 1038 yuan/ton, reflecting a clear loose supply and demand pattern in the current market.

Melamine

Raw material end:
From the upstream of the industrial chain, the raw material urea market has continued to weaken this week, although there has been a slight rebound recently due to local device maintenance. As of July 21, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1830.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% compared to last week (1838.00 yuan/ton). The sustained low operation of raw material prices has significantly weakened the cost support for melamine production. According to estimates, the current production cost of melamine has decreased by about 15% compared to the beginning of the year, and the price drop of the product is even greater, resulting in a continuous compression of the industry’s profit margin. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have approached the breakeven line.
Supply and demand side:
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, the current melamine market presents a dual weak characteristic of “weak supply and weak demand”. In terms of supply, the industry’s average operating rate remained at a low level of 56.73%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points from the same period last year. However, social inventory remains high and the speed of destocking has significantly slowed down. The demand side continues to be weak, and dealers generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in a low willingness to purchase. Affected by the deep adjustment of the real estate industry, the order volume of downstream panel enterprises has significantly shrunk, only 20% -35% of the same period last year. The operating rate of enterprises continues to operate at a low level, and the procurement of melamine is strictly controlled within the necessary amount.
Under the pressure of market supply-demand imbalance, some atmospheric pressure units have actively reduced their production load, and some enterprises have chosen to shut down for maintenance to alleviate inventory pressure. The performance in import and export is flat, with a cumulative export of 320000 tons from January to June, a slight increase of only 0.32% year-on-year. It is expected that the annual export volume will be in the range of 400000 to 550000 tons, making it difficult to effectively digest domestic excess capacity.
The current melamine market is facing dual pressures of insufficient cost support and weak demand follow-up. On the one hand, the prices of raw materials such as urea continue to fluctuate at a low level; On the other hand, downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have entered the traditional off-season, with low purchasing enthusiasm. In addition, the lack of significant improvement in export orders has led to the gradual accumulation of market inventory pressure. It is expected that without significant positive stimuli in the short term, the price of melamine may continue to maintain a weak and volatile pattern.
Looking ahead to the future, under the dual pressure of expected resumption of production and seasonal demand off-season, the market is unlikely to show signs of recovery in the short term. It is expected that some factories in the northern region may lower their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton, while in Xinjiang, due to major equipment repairs, local prices may receive temporary support.

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Traditional off-season, ABS market continues to be weak

Since mid July, the overall ABS market has continued to consolidate weakly, with some grades experiencing a decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 10350 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.59% compared to early July.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since mid July, the load of the domestic ABS industry has remained stable with small increases, and the overall load level has been raised from 65% to around 67%. The weekly average production has remained stable at over 120000 tons, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises is also stable and rising at over 200000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant. The supply side of the industry has further relaxed. Overall, the ABS market is not in a long-term pattern of loose supply, but fortunately the industry inventory is relatively controllable. The future supply of goods tends to be loose, and the support for ABS spot prices from the supply side is average.
Cost factor: Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials has been declining and rising, which has limited support for the cost side of ABS. The acrylonitrile market remains deadlocked and weak, with enterprise capacity utilization and output basically leveling off. The overall utilization rate of downstream production capacity has significantly decreased, and enterprises purchase raw materials on demand, resulting in a weakening of overall demand. In addition, the decline in raw materials and industry profits have made it difficult for the acrylonitrile market to see any positive results, and the weakness is difficult to change.
The domestic butadiene market has been fluctuating and rising recently, with insufficient port arrivals in East China and low inventory levels, boosting market sentiment. Mainstream refineries generally transact at a premium, driving market sentiment to further strengthen. The demand side has shown stable performance recently and urgently needs to replenish inventory. Overall, it is expected that the butadiene market will mainly operate steadily, moderately, and strongly supported by favorable supply side conditions.
Styrene has been fluctuating and falling recently. Upstream crude oil fluctuates, pure benzene consumption tends to be weak, and the support for styrene is poor, while supply side port inventories continue to increase. Under the pressure of expanding losses and high inventory of finished products, downstream companies in the Three S sector continue to stop and reduce their burden, resulting in a weakened demand for styrene. The current fundamentals of the styrene market are weak and difficult to change, and it is expected to operate weakly in the future.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market is in the traditional off-season range, and terminal enterprises maintain a strong demand for supplementary orders. Since the middle of the month, the market concerns caused by the deterioration of geopolitics in the Middle East have been basically digested, and industry players are more concerned about the uncertainty of US future tariff policies and their impact on market demand. The atmosphere of caution is pervasive in the market, and the flow of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels remain high and sideways, with continued loose supply and ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.

Future forecast
Since mid July, the domestic ABS market has continued to weaken and consolidate. The prices of upstream three materials are generally weak, and the production load of ABS polymerization plants is stable with small increases, while the demand side is at a low season level. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. It is expected that the ABS market will maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term.

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