In September 2025, the overall nickel price showed a fluctuating pattern of “weak supply and demand reality” and “macro emotional disturbance” in a game. Despite favorable stimuli such as Indonesian policies and the global copper mine incident during this period, nickel prices had limited room for rebound due to the dual suppression of global explicit inventories continuing to accumulate to historical highs and weak recovery in stainless steel demand, ultimately leading to a monthly decline.

1、 Price Trend Review: With ups and downs, the center of gravity shifts downward
Early October (9.1-9.11): Under pressure and downward trend. The price dropped from 124566 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 121750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26%. Global nickel inventories continue to rise to historic highs, coupled with lower than expected demand for traditional “gold nine” stainless steel, leading to a strong bearish sentiment in the market.
Mid month (9.11-9.23): Strong oscillation followed by a pullback. The US CPI data and unemployment claims have strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate cut, pushing up nickel prices to a slight rebound to 123750 yuan/ton. However, due to high inventory and weak demand, nickel prices subsequently fell back.
Late period (9.23-9.30): high and low. Indonesia strengthens mining regulations and the world’s second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, enters a force majeure situation, causing concerns about global metal supply and driving nickel prices briefly to 124400 yuan/ton on an emotional level. But before the holiday, the risk aversion sentiment heated up, and the excess pressure on fundamentals was not fundamentally relieved, causing prices to rise and then fall back again.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122500 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 1.66% for the whole month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.21%.
Macroscopically, long and short factors are intertwined, and nickel prices fluctuate and fluctuate
Negative factors:
The final value of the annualized quarterly GDP rate for the second quarter of the United States has been significantly revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two-year high; At the same time, the number of initial jobless claims for the week decreased, indicating economic resilience. Strong data boosted the US dollar index to rebound above 97.2. The strengthening of the US dollar has directly increased the purchase cost of nickel priced in US dollars, significantly suppressing global nickel prices and being a negative factor limiting the rebound space of nickel prices in September.
Although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, it is cautious and has not promised to continue cutting rates in the future. This move was interpreted by the market as a ‘hawkish interest rate cut’, dispelling investors’ expectations of rapid liquidity easing, boosting the rise of the US dollar, and indirectly strengthening the suppression effect on nickel prices.

Beneficial factors:
The Indonesian Ministry of Energy has imposed administrative sanctions on 190 mining companies that have not paid reclamation deposits, involving approximately 30 nickel companies. Although this move did not immediately interrupt supply, it has raised concerns in the market about the stability of mining policies in Indonesia, the world’s major nickel supplier. Combined with the Indonesian copper mine incident during the same period, the theme of “mining disturbance” was formed, which brought several brief rebound forces to nickel prices.
Grasberg, the world’s second-largest copper mine, is experiencing force majeure due to mudslides. Although this incident does not directly involve nickel, it has triggered widespread concerns in the market about the global metal supply chain, and bullish sentiment has spread throughout the basic metal market, indirectly driving nickel prices to briefly rise.
Non farm employment in August fell far short of expectations, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits surged in early September. These data reinforce the market’s expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates (with a probability of over 96%). The expectation of interest rate cuts will help improve the global economic growth prospects and metal demand expectations, providing slight support for nickel prices.
Supply side: High inventory pressure hanging on top, loose supply pattern unchanged
Global inventory surge: LME nickel inventory surged by over 21000 tons to 231312 tons within the month; The nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly by 2912 tons this month, reaching 24817 tons. The global total inventory is at an absolute historical high, which is the most crucial factor suppressing nickel prices.
Supply continues to be loose: The Philippines is in the peak season for shipments, and Indonesia’s mining policies and regulations are tightening. The benchmark price for domestic nickel ore in October was 15101.67 US dollars per ton, an increase of about 0.68%. At present, the supply remains loose. According to data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), there will be a global nickel market oversupply of 244300 tons from January to July 2025.
Demand side: Traditional sectors are weak, and new energy provides long-term support

Low demand for stainless steel: As the main consumer area of nickel, the transaction atmosphere in the stainless steel market is average, and end-users purchase according to demand. During the month, some stainless steel plants were affected by ultra-low emission production line renovations and maintenance, which affected their output. However, the overall stainless steel production output is still relatively high, providing essential support for nickel prices. On September 30th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was reported at 13055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19% during the month.
New energy prospects support: From January to July, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s new energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 38%, with a penetration rate of 45%. The trend of high nickel content in ternary batteries is clear, and nickel sulfate, as the core raw material, still has a long-term demand gap, which is the most solid optimistic expectation to support nickel prices in the future.
Future prospects
In the short term, the fundamental pattern of “high inventory” and “weak demand” is difficult to quickly reverse, and nickel prices will continue to operate under pressure. However, there is also support below:
Cost support: The Indonesian nickel iron cost line forms a certain bottom support for the price.
Policy disturbance: If Indonesia’s mining rectification policy continues to intensify, it may trigger market concerns about supply stability.
Long term positive news: The strong growth in the new energy sector determines that the strategic demand position of nickel remains unchanged.
Summary: Nickel prices fluctuated and closed down in a long short game in September. The market is seeking a balance between “weak reality” and “strong expectations”, and nickel prices are difficult to break out of a trend upward trend until there is a clear turning point in inventory or substantial improvement in stainless steel demand.