Monthly Archives: December 2024

Tin prices have slightly fallen this week

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (12.23-12.27), with an average market price of 244720 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 244660 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.02%.

 

The overall tin price has slightly decreased this week. Starting this week, tin prices have shown a narrow range of fluctuations both internally and externally. From a macro perspective, during the overseas Christmas holiday this week, the overall foreign market was sluggish. The US dollar index continued to fluctuate at a high level during the week, and the non-ferrous metal sector was generally under pressure.

 

Fundamentally, the overseas mining sector continues to be tense, providing support for tin prices below. The performance of terminal consumption has not changed significantly and continues to be weak. Most downstream customers maintain their essential purchases, and market transactions are average. The inventory status has slowed down during the week.

 

Based on comprehensive analysis, due to the support of tin inventory on prices, coupled with the possibility of Myanmar’s tin mine resuming production less than expected, the supply after resuming production may not reach the level before the shutdown. It is expected that the center of gravity of tin prices will remain high and continue to fluctuate within the range next week.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Magnesium prices slightly decline in December, bottoming out and stabilizing

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined, with an average market price of 16266 yuan/ton at the end of the month and 16466 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 1.21%.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

This month’s market analysis

 

In the last month of 2024, the magnesium market is still in a downward consolidation phase. As of today, the ex factory price of Fugu magnesium ingots remains between 16000-16300 yuan/ton. In the last week, magnesium prices remained stable, bottoming out and stabilizing.

 

Supply and demand side

On the one hand, as Christmas approaches, the purchasing willingness of foreign customers decreases, coupled with existing inventory pressure, the market presents a certain degree of loose supply and demand. On the other hand, the domestic market still has strong demand support, especially with the development of industries such as new energy vehicles and aerospace. The application scenarios of magnesium continue to expand, and factories have a clear willingness to raise prices under cost pressure.

 

In addition, the weakness of the raw material market, especially under the price fluctuations of metals closely related to the magnesium market such as aluminum and zinc, still puts competitive pressure on magnesium. At the same time, the uncertainty of the global economic recovery rate has put pressure on many magnesium production companies to operate at a loss, forcing them to remain cautious in pricing.

 

In terms of raw materials

Raw material ferrosilicon, the spot market for ferrosilicon is not volatile, and the progress of steel procurement is slow. Under the influence of the emotional season, the enthusiasm for retail inquiries and purchases is not high, and the market demand is mainly based on essential needs. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 23rd, ferrosilicon (brand: FeSi75~B; The market price for grain size grade/mm: natural block in Ningxia region ranges from 5950-6100 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6070 yuan/ton.

 

Raw material blue charcoal, the national blue charcoal market price is weak, downstream mainstream calcium carbide enterprises have lowered the purchase price of small and medium-sized blue charcoal materials by 50 yuan/ton, and the market has gradually implemented the reduction. There are some low-priced sources of goods, and the coke face has also experienced a 10-30% reduction in cost. As of December 20th, the mainstream prices for small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 745-870 yuan/ton, and 560-640 yuan/ton for coke surface; The mainstream prices for small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market are 800-950 yuan/ton, and 600-700 yuan/ton for coke surface; The mainstream price of coke in the Zhongwei market is 600 yuan/ton; Shizuishan market mixed material costs 620 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in the Ordos market is 785-850 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 650-750 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hohhot market is 860-870 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 720 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hami market is 920-1050 yuan/ton, coke surface is 380-1050 yuan/ton, and mixed materials are 220-360 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Changji market is 850-1220 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 550 yuan/ton, all of which are ex factory cash prices including tax; The prices of small and medium-sized materials such as blue charcoal at Tianjin Port are 1050-1160 yuan/ton, and coke face is 835-950 yuan/ton, both of which are cash inclusive of taxes at the port closing price; Yumen Blue Charcoal currently has a small material price of 280-550 yuan/ton, a coke surface price of 395-690 yuan/ton, a coke powder price of 570-590 yuan/ton, and a rice material price of 425-450 yuan/ton, all of which are cash inclusive of tax at the factory price.

 

Future forecast

 

In summary, although the magnesium market is currently facing difficulties in falling further due to the cost line, there has not been a significant increase in demand. We are gradually stabilizing, but we still need to closely monitor market dynamics, especially supply chain, cost changes, and the recovery of international market demand.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Magnesium prices have slightly decreased this week

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (12.22-12.26), with an average market price of 16300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16266 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.20%.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

This week’s market analysis

 

This week, the magnesium market has slightly lowered its prices, with the lowest price remaining stable at 16000 yuan/ton. Due to the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays, there is less demand from abroad, and domestic procurement remains essential. The overall magnesium market is relatively flat, with mostly wait-and-see measures.

 

Supply and demand side

This week, magnesium prices are still under pressure due to the approaching of two major holidays abroad, reduced demand, and the unchanged pattern of more supply and less demand. However, the overall cost of the upstream magnesium plant is already in a state of loss, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices due to cost support.

 

The delivery of 75 silicon iron at the raw material end remains stable. The spot market is temporarily stable, and futures have bottomed out and rebounded, but the demand side support is limited, and the overall supply and demand pattern has not changed. The factory’s willingness to lower prices is not high, and it is expected that the short-term silicon iron market will operate weakly and steadily.

 

comprehensive analysis

 

The magnesium market is still under upward pressure, but the downward space continues to compress, and in the short term, the upstream and downstream of the market are in a dilemma of rising and falling. Maintain a slight fluctuation and run steadily. Magnesium prices fluctuate narrowly within the range.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Supply and demand game: melamine remains stable slightly

1、 Price trend

 

This week, the market price of melamine remained stable without significant fluctuations. This may be related to the decline in raw materials, low capacity utilization, and general demand, without obvious upward momentum or downward pressure. As of December 25th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 640250 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.27% compared to the beginning of this month (6420.00 yuan/ton).

 

2、 Supply situation

 

1. Production capacity and output: Currently, the production capacity of melamine is relatively stable, and some new production capacity is gradually being released, but the overall output has not shown a significant increase. This may be related to poor industry profitability, reduced production by manufacturers, or delayed production of new capacity.

 

2. Operating rate: Recently, the operating rate of melamine enterprises may remain at a certain level, neither too high nor too low. This helps to maintain the stability of market supply and avoid excessive price fluctuations.

 

3、 Demand situation

 

1. Downstream industries: The downstream industries of melamine mainly include sheet metal, papermaking, molding plastics, etc. The demand situation of these industries has a significant impact on the melamine market. At present, downstream industries may still be in a sluggish state, with insufficient production and weak demand. This may have a certain suppressive effect on the melamine market.

 

2. Export situation: Although the export volume of melamine has alleviated domestic sales pressure to some extent, the export situation may not be stable due to factors such as international market demand and shipping costs.

 

4、 Raw material situation

 

As the main raw material of melamine, the price trend of urea has a significant impact on the melamine market. Recently, urea prices may remain relatively stable or fluctuate slightly, and their cost support for melamine may not be significant. As of December 25th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1828.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.72% compared to the beginning of this month (1981.25 yuan/ton).

 

5、 Market outlook

 

1. Short term outlook: It is expected that the melamine market will continue to operate steadily in the short term. The market supply and demand relationship is relatively balanced, with no obvious upward momentum or downward pressure.

 

2. Long term outlook: With the gradual recovery of the domestic economy and the increasing demand from downstream industries, the melamine market may usher in certain opportunities. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of factors such as the deployment of new production capacity, the trend of raw material prices, and international market demand on the market.

 

In summary, the melamine market has been running steadily this week, with relatively stable prices and a relatively balanced supply-demand relationship. But it is also necessary to pay attention to changes in market dynamics and influencing factors in order to adjust business strategies in a timely manner.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Weak fundamentals suppress the upward trend of PTA prices

Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend, but the increase has narrowed compared to the previous period. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 24th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4833 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to December 18th.

 

In terms of supply, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant will shut down on December 9th, and Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton PTA plant will undergo maintenance on December 12th, with an unspecified restart date. Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million ton (designed capacity, actual capacity of 3 million tons) PTA plant will start production on December 20th, and we will pay attention to the subsequent load increase situation. From the perspective of the fourth quarter, there were not many overall maintenance of PTA plants, and the industry’s current operating rate is stable at around 86%, with an expected accumulation of inventory.

 

Geopolitical concerns, despite the unstable demand outlook, have limited the upward potential due to expectations of an excess of crude oil. As of December 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.58 per barrel. PX factories mainly focus on maintaining normal production, with sufficient domestic PX spot supply and high inventory background unchanged. In addition, with the approaching Christmas holiday, participants’ cautious trading mentality has increased.

 

Downstream polyester inventory pressure is not high, and a polymerization unit with an annual output of 125000 tons in Haining has been heated up and restarted, resulting in a slight increase in polyester production to 86%. Rigid demand remains stable under high loads, but lacks substantial driving force. From the perspective of terminal weaving, some spring orders have been placed, but the performance of new orders continues to be insufficient. Recently, new inquiries and orders have continued to narrow.

 

Business analysts believe that the continued volatility in the crude oil market provides sufficient support for PTA costs. However, with the production of qualified products from new PTA capacity and sufficient supply in the subsequent PTA market, the weak fundamentals may suppress price increases while maintaining rigid demand on the demand side.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Recently, the market for butadiene rubber has slightly declined

Recently (12.15-12.23), the market price of Shunding rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 13860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% from 13920 yuan/ton on December 15. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber is supported; Stable production of butadiene rubber; Downstream all steel tire production has slightly rebounded. The supply price of Shunding rubber suppliers is stable, and the quotes from merchants have been slightly adjusted. As of December 23, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 13700~14050 yuan/ton.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Recently (12.15-12.23), the price of butadiene has slightly increased, providing support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the price of butadiene was 10837 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.71% from 10450 yuan/ton on December 15.

 

Recently (12.15-12.23), there has been a slight fluctuation in the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants, with overall construction around 7.7%.

 

Demand side: Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of December 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.20% of the load.

 

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will continue to rise slightly, and the cost of butadiene rubber will be supported; Recently, downstream construction has steadily increased slightly, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber; However, the production of butadiene rubber has remained close to 80%, putting pressure on the supply side. Overall, the butadiene rubber market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range in the short term.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

This week, tin prices fluctuated, surged, and fell back

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (12.16-12.20), with an average market price of 244260 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 242560 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.7%.

 

The overall tin price has slightly decreased this week. Starting this week, tin prices continued their upward trend from last week, but over the weekend, they experienced a slight correction due to the hawkish interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, the fundamental support is strong, and downstream customers have better acceptance after the price decline, resulting in a large amount of destocking exceeding expectations.

 

Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream tin ore and its concentrates in November decreased by 56.5% year-on-year and 19.2% month on month. From this year’s domestic tin ingot production data, the suspension of tin mines in Myanmar has not yet affected the smelting end, but the supply of raw materials from the mining end is still relatively rigid, and the latest situation in the raw material market still needs to be closely monitored. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots in China has once again declined, and the amount of destocking has exceeded expectations. Although tin prices have fallen rapidly this week, the current downward space is still limited.

 

Based on comprehensive analysis, tin inventory is currently at a relatively low level, and downstream standing inventory is not high. If tin prices fall significantly, inventory may continue to be stocked, and tin prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Nickel prices have continued to decline this week

This week (12.14-12.20), the nickel market experienced a downward expansion. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, spot nickel was reported at 124608 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.62%.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the target range of the federal funds rate to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and expects the rate cut to narrow to 50 basis points by 2025. The scheduled interest rate cut is in line with expectations, and the pace of interest rate cuts will be slowed down next year, causing the US dollar to rise to a two-year high and bearish on the metal market.

 

On the supply side: According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, there is a cumulative surplus of 114100 tons of refined nickel in 2024. Shanghai nickel and London nickel inventories are under pressure, with a significant decrease in inventory during the week. As of December 20th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 29227 tons, a decrease of 1337 tons during the week; The qualified quantity for delivery is 35390 tons, with an increase of 706 tons within the week. On December 20th, LME nickel inventory was 161436 tons, a decrease of 3072 tons during the week.

 

On the demand side: The stainless steel market continues to weaken, with low willingness to reduce production and high output. Downstream demand for low-priced goods is being replenished as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish. As of December 20th, the reference price for stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% from the beginning of the month. The demand for electroplating and alloys remains stable.

 

Market forecast: Weak demand, inventory pressure, hindered upward movement of nickel prices, continued pattern of strong supply and weak demand, attention to macroeconomic policies, expected short-term fluctuations in nickel prices.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Domestic ammonium sulfate prices are steadily rising (12.13-12.19)

1、 Price trend

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on December 19th was 823 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to the average price of 813 yuan/ton on December 13th.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has been steadily rising. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, and the operating rate of domestic enterprises remains at a high level. This week, downstream enterprises made on-demand purchases, with an increase in inquiries compared to last week and an increase in market trading volume. The bidding price for coking grade ammonium sulfate has slightly increased, while the price for domestic grade ammonium sulfate has slightly increased. As of December 19th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 765 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-860 yuan/ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been trending upwards recently. At present, the market trading direction is good, with a focus on low-priced restocking. Domestic and international demand still needs to be improved. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will experience a narrow consolidation and operation in the short term.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

The market for refined petroleum coke continues to rise in December

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke continued to rise in December. As of December 17th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1673.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.62% from 1540.25 yuan/ton on December 1st.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Cost aspect: Recently, crude oil prices have risen overall, mainly due to the potential supply risks in the Middle East caused by the turmoil in Syria, coupled with improved economic and demand prospects in Asia.

 

Supply side: Recently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke has been active, and the inventory of petroleum coke is low. The market supply is relatively tight, and downstream companies have actively entered the market to push up the price of petroleum coke. In the near future, imported petroleum coke ports will gradually arrive. Currently, the price of imported petroleum coke continues to rise, the speed of port shipments is good, inventory is declining, and market inquiries are increasing.

 

On the demand side: Currently, the spot market for silicon metal is experiencing a downward trend. On the one hand, recently, the market for silicon metal futures has continuously fallen to market lows, intensifying the negative impact of futures on the spot market. On the other hand, with the arrival of winter, a situation of weak production and demand in the metal silicon market is gradually forming, and the overall operating rate of the metal silicon market continues to decline, resulting in a decrease in the expected production of metal silicon; The overall operating rate of the downstream polycrystalline silicon market remained unchanged compared to last week, but the monthly operating rate has decreased by about 25%. The operating rate of downstream enterprises has decreased, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials. Currently, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market of silicon metal, with a lack of enthusiasm for new order purchases. The market is dominated by low-priced transactions, and the overall supply and demand transmission in the silicon metal market is weak. The demand for high sulfur pellet coke in the silicon carbide industry and the southern fuel market still exists, but some domestic refineries have stopped supplying petroleum coke to the silicon carbide market, and currently mainly purchase imported pellet coke.

 

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has continued to rise with good transactions, mainly due to the continuous rise in the raw material petroleum coke market, as well as the slight reduction in production by some enterprises in Hebei due to environmental protection policies, resulting in a slight decrease in market supply.

 

Recently, the electrolytic aluminum market has fallen, and downstream customers for aluminum entered a low demand season in December. After the cancellation of export tax rebate policies, the operating rate of aluminum factories has declined, and the supply and demand in domestic and foreign markets have weakened. The aluminum market has also declined, with downstream aluminum using carbon as the main demand for petroleum coke market.

 

Market forecast: Currently, downstream negative electrode and carbon enterprises’ procurement of petroleum coke is still acceptable, which supports the market situation of petroleum coke. In addition, the current low inventory of local refineries is expected to lead to a narrow rise in petroleum coke prices in the near future.

http://www.lubonchem.com/