1.Price trend analysis of liquid epoxy resin in East China after the festival
After the festival, the offer of East China liquid resin market fell as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 18, the offer of East China liquid resin was 36500-37000 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. In terms of the solid resin market, taking Huangshan solid resin market as an example, the market offer after the festival showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The offer rose to 30000 yuan / ton from 29000 yuan / ton on October 8. On October 18, the market offer weakened, and the offer was around 29600-30000 yuan / ton. On the whole, the solid resin market has little adjustment. Recently, the decline of epoxy resin market is mainly affected by BPA & ECH dual raw materials. Then, what is the trend of BPA & ECH?
Market trend and analysis of bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin after section II
After the festival, bisphenol a market first rises and then suppresses, and then bearish
After the national day, the domestic bisphenol a spot market rose first and then declined. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market offer was 22166 yuan / ton on October 7, and the average market closing offer was 23066 yuan / ton on October 18. The highest point was 24200 yuan / ton on October 13, with an amplitude of 9.17%. At the beginning of the middle of the year, with the release of the news that Tianjin Zhongsha new plant was put into operation and the closing of the auction of 22800 yuan / ton at a factory of East China Petrochemical on Wednesday, the market mentality was impacted, the downstream offer was significantly lower, and the offer of the cargo holder followed the downward trend. Up to now, the mainstream offer in East China is 23400 yuan / ton, and the offer in North China market is 23400-23600 yuan / ton. After the festival, the bisphenol a market also showed the trend of first rising and then restraining with the raw material end phenol and acetone.
In terms of raw materials, phenol ketones are mainly affected by the sharp rise of crude oil during the National Day holiday, the sharp rise of raw materials pure benzene and propylene, and the phenol market first rose and then fell. The overall trend is an increase of 4.46% compared with that before the holiday. The phenol market rose 300 yuan / ton in the first trading day, and the factory increased 500 yuan / ton in three working days. The market followed the rhythm of the factory and pushed up the offer. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol was 9462 yuan / ton on October 7 and 10037 yuan / ton on October 11, an increase of 6.08%. As of October 18, the national market offered 9900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2%. So far, the factory in East China has implemented 10000 yuan / ton, and the offers in major mainstream markets are as follows: 9800 yuan / ton in East China, 9900 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, and 10000 yuan / ton in South China. In terms of acetone, the domestic acetone market was very good after the festival. With the support of cost, the acetone market in East China increased from 6300 yuan / ton to 7100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, according to the national acetone offer, the East China market offer was 6387 yuan / ton on October 7, 7075 yuan / ton on October 18, and the highest point was 7187 yuan / ton on October 12, an overall increase of 10.76%. Up to now, the offer of domestic factories is 7000-7100 yuan / ton, and the offers of major mainstream regions are as follows: 6800 yuan / ton in East China, 7450 yuan / ton in South China, and 6900-6950 yuan / ton in Yanshan and Shandong.
In late October, the new unit is planned to be put into commissioning. At present, the industrial chain has increased greatly from top to bottom, but the downstream transmission effect is not good. In addition, the dual control continues, the local production and power restriction policies are relatively strict, and the terminal demand needs to be released. Next week, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the news, focus on the auction of Sinopec East China Petrochemical this week, and it is expected that the short-term bisphenol a market will be weak and downward.
After the festival, the epichlorohydrin market fell after consolidation and was bearish in the future
After the festival, the epichlorohydrin market fluctuated. In terms of cost, the price of raw propylene is high, the price of glycerol is strong, and the cost pressure is obvious, which supports the manufacturer’s mentality. On the supply side, some factories accumulated inventory during the holidays and mainly reduced prices after the festival. In addition, affected by the news of device restart of large factories in East China, it suppressed the mentality of operators and dragged down the focus of market negotiation. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing mentality is cautious, focusing on just need to follow up, and the buying atmosphere is light. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of October 15, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 21066.67 yuan / ton, down 0.78% compared with the price on October 8, up 3.61% compared with the price on September 15, and up 47.32% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.
From the raw material side, for upstream propylene, on the 14th, the high level of propylene market in Shandong fell, enterprises lowered 50-100 yuan / ton, and the propylene price in Shandong was 9550-9600 yuan / ton. The current price showed signs of a slight decline. The prices of upstream crude oil, coal and methanol have risen at a high level, and propylene prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall under the support of costs. Downstream polypropylene, octanol, butanol, propylene oxide and other products have high operating load and strong demand support.
At present, the cost side support is strong, but the demand side is still under pressure. The downstream just needs to follow up carefully, and the buying enthusiasm is general. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be lowered or adjusted weakly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.
III. cost profit analysis of epoxy resin
According to the latest price of dual raw materials, the raw material side has a lot of profits, and the expected decline probability in the future is large. At present, the epoxy resin is mainly affected by the cost, and the epoxy resin may decline in the future:
The production cost of bisphenol A = 0.85 Phenol + 0.28 acetone + 2500 yuan. Taking the current market offer in East China as an example, the production cost of bisphenol A is 12762 yuan / ton and the gross profit is about 10238 yuan / ton.
Propylene epichlorohydrin = propylene * 0.68 + liquid chlorine * 2.1 + 3000. At present, the cost of propylene ECH is 14300 yuan / ton and the gross profit is about 5000 yuan / ton.
Glycerol epichlorohydrin = 0.9 * glycerol + 0.82 * hydrochloric acid + 0.443 * calcium oxide + 3000. At present, the cost of glycerol ECH is 15000 yuan / ton and the gross profit is about 4500 yuan / ton.
Liquid epoxy resin = 0.68bpa + 0.54ech + 3000, the cost is about 29980 yuan / ton; At present, the offer of liquid resin Market in East China is 36500-37000 yuan / ton.
One step solid epoxy resin = 0.77 BPA + 0.4 ECH + 2000, the cost is about 28110 yuan / ton. At present, the offer of solid epoxy resin in Huangshan is 29600-30000 yuan / ton.
From the perspective of business society, from the current raw material end, the profit space of dual raw materials is large. Although the goods holders support under the current tight supply, when the terminal cost is too high and difficult to digest, the downward conductivity of the industrial chain is weakened and the probability of decline in the later stage is increased. From the perspective of epoxy resin itself, at present, the profit margin of liquid epoxy resin market is good under the condition of relatively stable demand, but the cost pressure of solid epoxy resin is large. At present, under the influence of dual control, the operating rate of solid resin market is around 40%. From the perspective of cost and profit, the epoxy resin market has a high probability of decline in the later stage, and the market is bearish.