Zinc price in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the zinc price was 23148 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.17% from the zinc price of 24438 yuan/ton on March 1st.
The zinc price in March showed an overall trend of “initial oscillation, mid-term accelerated decline, and later bottoming out and rebounding”, with core fluctuations revolving around supply and demand games and macro emotions. The lowest point appeared on the 19th at 22836 yuan/ton.
Macro factors
In early March, the US dollar index strengthened in stages, exerting some pressure on industrial metals such as zinc priced in US dollars, indirectly leading to difficulty in forming upward momentum in zinc prices and showing a volatile trend. After the middle of the month, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates continued to decline. As of the end of March, market expectations gradually became clear, and macro suppressive factors eased, laying the foundation for the later recovery of zinc prices.
Supply and demand side
Supply side: In March, the operating rate of domestic zinc smelting enterprises remained high, coupled with the resumption of production in some mines, the supply of raw materials was relatively sufficient, which to some extent suppressed zinc prices; Meanwhile, although zinc inventory has declined, it is still within a relatively reasonable range and has not formed a pattern of supply shortage.
On the demand side: March is in the traditional “golden three silver four” start-up season, but downstream consumption recovery is not as expected. Demand in traditional zinc consumption areas such as real estate and home appliances is weak, with only a small amount of rigid demand support in the new energy vehicle and infrastructure sectors. The overall demand side has failed to form effective upward momentum, leading to a sustained decline in zinc prices in the medium term; As downstream enterprises gradually resume production in the later stage, the release of essential demand has driven prices to slightly rise.
Inventory side: synchronized decline in domestic and international inventory, supporting later recovery
The inventory side is showing a trend of “continuous depletion”, providing support for zinc prices. The continuous depletion of inventory has eased supply pressure and become one of the core supporting factors for the later bottoming out and rebound of zinc prices.
Future forecast
The zinc price experienced a complete cycle of “oscillation decline rebound” in March, with the core being dominated by supply and demand games and macroeconomic policy expectations; In April, the macro environment tends to stabilize, inventory depletion continues, and demand gradually recovers. Zinc prices are likely to show a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on downstream demand recovery pace, inventory changes, and Federal Reserve policy trends.