Commodity index: the PCL commodity index was 92.74 on April 29, which was flat with yesterday, down 14.93% from 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, up 9.99% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)
The monitoring shows that since the start of 2021, the solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) of China’s domestic market has declined and continued to weaken after a short-term rise. On February 18, the main domestic mainstream was 1791.67 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on March 30 was 1718.57 yuan / ton, with a decrease of about 4.18%; In April, the main market of polyaluminium chloride in Henan Province of China was slightly fluctuating, with an amplitude of less than 1%, with little change. By April 29, the main quotation was 1717.14 yuan / ton, so far, the overall decline was 4.16%.
Two and a half months later, it is very unstable for the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area. Firstly, the demand of the year is slowly restored, and the start-up of the production is also started on land and land; By the end of April, local manufacturers have entered the intermittent and repeated production stop production production partial production stop circle. First, the water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi area of Henan Province basically stopped production and rectification, and by mid April, the manufacturers resumed production on a large scale. During this period, due to the temporary tension of some brands of some manufacturers, the market was slightly increased; After the resumption of production, the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, weak market demand and a slight decrease in the market. Overall, the manufacturers have been repeatedly stopped and produced repeatedly due to strict environmental protection inspection during this period. Some small enterprises are unable to support due to production stoppage and demand. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict inspection of environmental protection; Production does not forget to keep environmental protection, and the production enterprises have a long way to go.
Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the data of business society show that from February 18 to March, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China rose sharply from February 18 to March, with the mainstream market quotation of 180 yuan / ton on February 18, about 205 yuan / ton on March 22, and nearly 15% monthly increase. After that, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose 17% this month, with strong cost support,; The lower silica support is less than 1% higher than the monthly price fluctuation, the support of ammonium chloride is strong and the monthly rise is 14%. The downstream demand of “Jinsan” hydrochloric acid gradually increases, and the hydrochloric acid fluctuates up 15% in March. On the day of 31, hydrochloric acid rose by more than 40 yuan / ton. In April, hydrochloric acid in North China rose in a volatile manner. On April 1, the main market quotation was 243.33 yuan / ton, and on April 29, it was about 226.67 yuan / ton, falling in a single month, about 6.85%. The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak; However, the monthly price fluctuation of lower silica is less than 1%, and ammonium chloride is down 1.34% this month. The overall high level is consolidation, which is weak for hydrochloric acid. In conclusion, it is estimated that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to small amplitude of shock in the near future. Since then, the overall increase is nearly 26%.
Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In February, the civil gas market in Shandong Province was staged in the Spring Festival, with different trends before and after the festival. Before the festival, the main trend was weak downward, and the post festival market was on a short roller coaster. In March, the LNG market changed its decline and returned to the rising route, and the civil gas market in Shandong Province increased significantly; But in mid March, it began to go down continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market was not continued; Since the end of March, the LNG market is dominated by favorable factors and enters the upward channel again. In April, the civil market of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the price rose continuously, especially after the small and long holiday in Qingming, the civil gas market in Shandong began to push up continuously, with a large margin; But in late April, the civil LPG market showed “slide ride”, and the price fell 5-6% and remained stable basically. From the trend chart, it can be seen that the rise in late and early April is significantly different. Although the price is down a part from the early ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is relatively high, the downstream market atmosphere has recovered, the manufacturers are smooth to ship, most of the inventory is in controllable level. The market is still in a weak position, and the international crude oil is relatively weak. In addition, the weather temperature increases, and market demand is expected to weaken. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on February 18, the mainstream quotation of LNG Shandong market was 3900 yuan / ton, while that of April 28 daily was about 4173 yuan / ton, up about 15%.
Downstream demand: since then, the downstream demand has been general, not warm or hot. The “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two conferences this year have stricter and long-term sustainability requirements for environmental protection of production enterprises in various industries. Chemical enterprises have undergone strict environmental protection inspection, and many industries have stopped production and rectification from time to time. Many enterprises need to rectify. In terms of environmental protection, there should be certain demand for environmental protection products. Water treatment products have their application limitations, The demand for air purification products may be slightly lower than that of atmospheric emission purification products. According to several enterprises, the demand this year has been warm and hot, and the production is constantly suspended and rectified. The pressure of enterprises is relatively high, and some small enterprises may be eliminated.
Post market forecast: business analysis believes that the price of raw materials has been rising in the context of inflation caused by the release of water from the Central Bank of the world. In recent years, the situation of epidemic in some overseas areas is serious, and under the influence of multiple international factors such as Sino US relations, there may be stage differentiation in various industries. For the chemical industry, under the environmental protection policy requirements of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” in 2021, the chemical industry will face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later period, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will be raised; Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical threshold is constantly rising; The production stop and rectification action is frequent, and the supply side can not be affected. In the case of large inventory consumption, the price has been expected to rise. In conclusion, in the future market, the price of polychloride will be stable under the condition that the current demand is general and the inventory is sufficient; The long-term environmental inspection will inevitably aggravate the survival of the fittest of production enterprises. Only by improving the technical level as soon as possible and meeting the environmental protection requirements as soon as possible, can enterprises maintain long-term and effective development.