I. price data
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel rose this week, which is much higher than that of diesel. The price of domestic gasoline is 6695 yuan / ton, 4.35% higher than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel is 6503 yuan / ton, 0.91% higher than that of last week.
II. Analysis of influencing factors
Product: this week, the international crude oil rose sharply after the fall, and on December 2, the domestic refined oil price was adjusted and increased, and the market price of gasoline and diesel rose this week.
Industry chain: in terms of international crude oil market, Russia announced to postpone the decision to cut production, which was negative, and then there was a positive boost, such as the reduction or postponement to the end of 2020, the unexpected drop of US crude oil inventory after increasing for several consecutive weeks. WTI crude oil prices closed at $58.40/barrel, up about 5.38% on a weekly basis.
Market: this week’s gasoline prices continue to rise sharply, first of all, the sharp rise in international crude oil prices has driven up the price of crude oil, second, some oil distributors in the market purchase a large number of oil transfer raw materials, resulting in a rise in the price of raw materials; third, the gasoline price fell to a low level in the late last month, and the gasoline market price rose by borrowing the opportunity. The price increase of diesel market is far less than that of gasoline. Firstly, the weather turns cold, the market support for diesel just needs is not enough, and secondly, the market price of gasoline and diesel in the early stage is inverted, and the gasoline price is suppressed. So this week, the market price of diesel is not as high as that of gasoline.
III. future forecast
Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that although there is a possibility of a sharp rise in the short-term international crude oil price, the overall downward pressure on the oil price is relatively large. Although the demand in the gasoline market has improved, the operating load of the refinery is about 69.05%, which has been raised to a high level within the year. Diesel market is gradually entering the off-season. It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel market will rise steadily next week, with limited increase.