Aluminum prices fell in April

Aluminum prices fell in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20073.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.45% from the market average price of 20576.67 yuan/ton on April 1; Compared to the market average price of 19540 yuan/ton on April 9th, it has increased by 2.73%.
In early April, due to the impact of US tariff news, the commodity market experienced a stress response, and aluminum prices showed a significant decline. Subsequently, the price of aluminum ingots rebounded and began to return to fundamental considerations.
Fundamental Overview
Recently, the supply and demand fundamentals have remained stable, and consumption has shown resilience, especially in domestic consumption where resilience is strong. Policies to promote consumption are still evident. The export of terminal products has been impacted by US tariffs, but during the 90 day window period, transit trade is competing for exports, which makes the short-term tariff impact less prominent. However, the supply side remains mainly stable, with a slight increase in domestic operating capacity and little fluctuation in imports. Explicit inventory continues to be depleted.

Expectations for May
The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained relatively stable in April, with 2.8 million tons of newly built capacity in Hebei and Guangxi about to be put into use, but still leaving a significant gap. Theoretically, starting from May, there will be a monthly gap of 100000 tons. Domestic demand is relatively strong, providing some support for aluminum prices; However, under the pressure of global trade risks, the uncertainty of aluminum demand has increased. There is an expectation of a transition from shortage to surplus in aluminum supply and demand throughout the year. Under the influence of US tariffs, the export prospects of aluminum containing end products are bleak, and the demand for aluminum ingots is showing a strong internal and weak external trend, putting pressure on aluminum exports. It is expected that aluminum prices will hover around 20000 yuan/ton in the short term and enter a horizontal oscillation range.