According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8916 yuan/ton on April 9th, and 8541 yuan/ton on April 16th, a decrease of 4.21%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11933 yuan/ton on April 9th and 11650 yuan/ton on April 16th, a decrease of 2.37%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 9th was 10562 yuan/ton, and on April 16th it was 10400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%.
The recent continuous decline in international crude oil prices and insufficient support from PE production costs have further intensified the bearish sentiment in the market. Among them, LLDPE has the highest sensitivity to crude oil prices, so the weakening of the cost side has the greatest impact on it, and the decline is also the most significant.
The overall supply side is tight, and China is currently in the peak of annual spring inspections, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization and output. Due to the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation, there is a shortage of imports at ports, and inventory is showing a differentiated trend of upstream accumulation and social destocking.
The overall demand side is showing a weak trend during the off-season, with downstream product companies operating at low rates. The demand for agricultural film continues to decline with the end of spring plowing, and there is a shortage of new orders in areas such as packaging film and pipe materials. Under the pressure of high raw material prices, downstream enterprises’ profit margins have been compressed, and their purchasing intentions are cautious, mainly focusing on small orders for essential needs without centralized replenishment behavior, which has limited support for the market.
In the short term, the polyethylene market will maintain a volatile and weak trend, with supply side spring inspections and import disruptions forming certain support. However, the demand side is weak during the off-season, upstream enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the recent weak crude oil prices have led to loose cost support. It is difficult to have a clear directional breakthrough under the long short game.
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