Commodity index: on September 28, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.34, which was the same as yesterday, 20.34% lower than 107.13 (2019-05-08), and 2.96% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)
The data showed that the polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was stable in the second half of September. The manufacturer’s production is normal, the quotation is stable, and the downstream demand does not appear the expected “Jinjiu” market in the industry.
Among them, the mainstream quotation range of polyacrylamide is as follows: cationic, molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) quotation 14000-15000 yuan / ton, anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million yuan / ton, solid particle quotation 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particle quotation 9600-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18 million solid The quoted price of bulk particles is 10400-11000 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18-20 million yuan / ton, and that of powder is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; that of non-ionic is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton.
For upstream acrylonitrile, the mainstream market quotation was 8450 yuan / ton at the end of August, and about 8750 yuan / ton since September. Plant performance: the settlement price of acrylonitrile products of Sinopec North China and East China chemical marketing company executed 8700 yuan / ton in September, up 900 yuan / ton compared with the settlement price of last month. Jilin Petrochemical’s first and third unit was restarted on September 19. At present, its four acrylonitrile production lines have been restarted. On September 21, Korea’s Taiguang Industrial Co., Ltd. shut down one production line of its 290000 T / a acrylonitrile plant in Yushan due to technical failure, and the restart time was not determined. The restart time of the 90000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Turkish manufacturer petkim in Aliaga continues to be delayed, and is expected to resume after mid October. Ineos’s 300000 t / a acrylonitrile plant in Cologne, Germany, is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance at the end of September.
From the perspective of the industry, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly since 2020. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. Since the second half of September, it has remained stable after a small fluctuation, and the amplitude of the shock is insignificant, and the demand has not increased significantly.
According to the market forecast, the market of polyacrylamide is basically stable in the second half of September, and there is no obvious sign in the golden period of “gold nine silver ten”. The manufacturer expects that with the gradual decrease of temperature and the arrival of the later heating season, the demand for water treatment products from environmental protection and other aspects will increase.