The first quarter of this year, almost all of the enterprise sales growth rate of surprisingly, from at least 35 percent, to 80 or 90 percent, and even one has tripled, the only one who does not grow business, its sales last year reached 1.2 billion yuan.
Why is the increase in the first quarter?
From the pesticide product chain, the upstream tech enterprise growth is concentrated in the fourth quarter of last year, the fourth quarter is the preparation enterprise’s preparation period, the tech persticide trading is active, the Shanghai persticide trade fair is the price benchmark. But due to environmental pressure, the lack of production, leading to the shortage of tech pesticides, prices soared, imidacloprid, acetamiprid and other tech pesticides prices have doubled, the tech pesticides prices soared to enhance the industry tense atmosphere, and from upstream to Downstream, leading to the industry to produce “illusion”, the preparation plant at full capacity, the downstream dealers are also grab goods, a quarter of the channel full lack-selling, many manufacturers out of a substantial increase in the library, so with the opening of the high growth momentum.
Why is the growth in the second quarter real growth?
“The growth in the first quarter not real growth, the growth in the second quarter is real grouth and the most important growth is in the third and forth quarter. In the first quarter,in addition to anti-season medication in Hainan and parts of southern China, most parts of the country has not yet started medication, pressure to the first quarter of the country, Channel goods, the demand side is the farmers have not yet purchased, or farmers in the promotion policy to encourage the purchase but did not use to the ground, can not form a second purchase behavior, so the first quarter of the goods out of the majority of manufacturers in the channel That is, the hands of wholesalers, did not digest to the hands of farmers, the strict sense is not completed sales, but the goods from the production enterprises to zero-zero enterprises “turn warehouse” behavior, the formation of “barrier lake” phenomenon. Of course, as the goods leave the factory flow to the market, the fourth quarter of last year, the original pharmaceutical companies and statements in the first quarter of this year, the preparation of corporate statements have been bright up.
Into the April, is the southern China citrus and other large crops Paul flower fruit drug peak period, rice and northern crops into the medication period, the national full access to the peak of medication, the first quarter accumulation in the batch of commercial warehouse goods gradually transferred to the farmers In the hands of the “barrier lake” began to spill flood, at this time, whether the formation of channels as soon as possible purchase, as the evaluation of sales agents on behalf of the important basis for sales promotion, but also the dealer sales promotion ability of the concentrated period of experience.
The second quarter is the most important product of the digestion period, when the goods such as rotation, purchase frequency fast. If the second quarter can continue to grow, to prove that the first quarter of the shop has been digested goods, the downstream have the ability to re-purchase. In addition to selling goods, short-term no other law, agricultural services is the highlight of the rise of nearly two years, “flying defense” to enhance the user sticky, but nothing more than the more Take the goods channel, and reduce the dosage, short-term profits of the pesticide companies and performance is not driven, corporate profits are still hanging on the product spreads, as the car production plant produced by the car only rent not sell, anti To grab a taxi business business, which is worthless for the car factory.
Why is growth unsustainable?
Pesticide consumption growth is unsustainable because:
There was no increase in acreage;
Policy does not encourage the use of growth;
There is no sign of a substantial increase in agricultural prices;
Domestic and international economic environment has not improved significantly;
So short-term growth is only “virtual fire”, but the limited cake re-cut, foreign companies rely on new products to increase, within the enterprise to rely on quality continue to increase market share, we cut the head in a stagnant market share of the total squeeze.
In the case of excess capacity, once the opportunity, who have a full horsepower boot “impulse” to see the pyrazole production capacity and the actual output data is very obvious, the current pyraz manufacturers total production capacity of one-third To meet domestic demand, the future of vicious competition is inevitable. Therefore, the impulse in the first quarter of the pharmaceutical companies will lead to the latter part of the channel product surplus? Remains to be seen, but at the end of June can be seen.
From the terminal to see, and did not show this “impulsive” behavior, in addition to the southern citrus cultivation area has continued large area expansion impulses, the northeast, north, southeast, northwest of which crop planting area is a substantial expansion, wheat and other parts Grain area will be shrinking, the drug did not increase the market base, farmers generally did not increase the impulse to buy agricultural, grass-roots quiet, so there has been “upstream hot downstream cold, the middle of the lake” situation.
The supply side of the changes led to the original drug and preparation prices unrealistically, and farmers did not increase investment in agricultural commodities, but the decline in purchasing power, which has no market demand to support the behavior, after the medication period, the market appears to digest a large number of stocks, Homogeneous products will lead to poor sales and competition to bargain.
If the product can not be digested in the first half, will form a quarterly inventory, receivables risk and return risk followed.
Why three or four quarters of growth is the most important? Flumethrin
“In the third quarter, especially in August, the northern market quickly into the off-season, only greenhouse vegetables, the eastern and the Yangtze River market still below the market, the growth of the second quarter, Have the opportunity, the goods of the season to adjust the market to digest and promote the staff of the busy market to become the manufacturers will do the “basic homework.”
If the second half still maintain year-on-year growth, especially the chain growth can remain stable, then prove that the first half of the enterprise market products digested properly, reasonable channel inventory, then continue to increase the potential is enough.