Last week (September 8-14, 2025), downstream enterprises signed orders as needed, with low inventory levels and little fluctuation in on-site supply. The market trend of the main raw material, dissolved slurry, was stagnant, with limited cost support. The market trend of adhesive short fiber slightly increased.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (September 8-14, 2025), the market price of viscose staple fiber was weakly stable. As of September 14, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week, with a weekly increase of 0.61%.
In terms of cost: Last week (September 8-14, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolving pulp, with weak support and limited cost support. As of now, the price of domestic dissolving pulp is around 6700 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved pulp is around 800 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 870 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remain stable but fluctuate slightly, with average cost support.
The supply fluctuation is not significant
The industry supply has not changed much, and currently the daily operating rate in the market remains at around 75%. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers have declined compared to the previous period, and downstream yarn companies are picking up goods as needed. The overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market has decreased, and the supply fluctuation in the industry is not significant. Some manufacturers have low inventory, and the positive support from the supply side is limited.
Downstream on-demand procurement
The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment has slightly increased, and price fluctuations are not significant. As of September 14th, the price of ring spun R30S in Jiangsu region is around 17100 yuan/ton, and the price of ring spun R40S is around 18300 yuan/ton. The market is in a traditional off-season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn market transactions are not ideal. Only a few models of vortex spun cotton yarn have slightly better export orders. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish urgently needed goods, resulting in a slight improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will be insufficient.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have low inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be strong in the short term; The demand in the terminal market has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be limited in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with sufficient overall supply. Downstream yarn factories mainly sign orders and purchase on demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, Business Society analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the price is expected to be around 13000-13200 yuan/ton for acceptance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (9.8-9.12), with an average market price of 17225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17050 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.02%.

This week, the price has fallen to around 17000 yuan per ton, almost returning to the price before the price increase in late July.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the overall supply of magnesium smelting enterprises remains stable and shows a slight upward trend, but their inventory has once again decreased. Magnesium smelting enterprises generally have a certain degree of panic. In addition, some enterprises are facing cash flow shortages in the middle of the month, and some choose to sell at low prices in small quantities, which has to some extent triggered a short-term price drop in the market..
In terms of demand, after the decline in magnesium prices, some downstream users began to purchase while prices were decreasing due to replenishment and delivery needs. However, those users who do not have emergency replenishment plans are still cautious and waiting to follow up; At the same time, some factories are actively and orderly arranging shipments, and the total amount of spot goods in the current market is not abundant.
Raw material end
The price of coal is constantly rising, while the price of blue charcoal remains relatively stable. The price of dolomite has significantly increased, and the price of ferrosilicon is expected to rise significantly, resulting in a significant increase in overall costs.
comprehensive analysis
This week, due to insufficient demand support, the magnesium market is facing downward pressure and has entered a phase of consolidation and decline. Entering September, the inventory of magnesium production end is rapidly digested, while upstream supply may decrease due to equipment maintenance, making it more difficult for magnesium prices to continue to decline. It is expected that after the market adjustment over the weekend, the magnesium market is expected to gradually stabilize.

Price trend: (9.1-9.11) Under pressure, downward trend, volatile consolidation

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 11th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 121766 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.25% and a year-on-year decline of 0.18%. Since early September, nickel prices have shown a downward trend in focus, mainly suppressed by factors such as the continuous increase in global explicit inventories and slow recovery of stainless steel demand, resulting in a volatile and weak market pattern.
Macroscopically, long and short factors are intertwined, and nickel prices fluctuate and fluctuate
1. The impact of the Indonesian incident has weakened: At the end of August, protests in Indonesia briefly pushed up nickel prices, but production was not affected as it did not affect Sulawesi, the main producer of nickel iron. Market sentiment fell and nickel prices subsequently decreased.
2. US economic data strengthens expectations of interest rate cuts: Non farm employment in August is far lower than expected, unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, PPI growth slows down, and market expectations for Fed interest rate cuts are heating up, with a probability of over 96%. Loose expectations support a slight rebound in nickel prices.
3. The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses nickel prices: The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on commodities priced in US dollars, including nickel, limiting price rebounds.
Supply side: The mining side has abundant supply, and inventory continues to accumulate
Loose supply of nickel ore: The Philippines is still in the peak season for shipments, and the amount of nickel ore arriving at ports continues to increase, with prices overall stable. The benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in Indonesia (second half of September) remained at $14900 per dry ton. After the impact of the rainy season subsided, mining shipments tended to stabilize and supply capacity increased.
Global explicit inventory hit a new high: LME nickel inventory increased significantly by 13608 tons per week to 223152 tons; The nickel inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 206 tons to 22111 tons during the cycle. The global total inventory level has reached a historical high, reflecting the current severe oversupply pattern, which continues to suppress price increases.
Demand side: Traditional demand is weak, and the growth of new energy provides long-term support
1. Stainless steel consumption remains sluggish
On September 11th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was reported at 13055 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.15% during the week. The market transaction atmosphere is average, with stable quotes from traders and on-demand purchases from end-users, resulting in limited acceptance of high priced resources. However, the industry still expects the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” to bring about a rebound in production scheduling. It is expected that if demand recovers in the later stage, the marginal demand for nickel will improve.
2. Strong demand for new energy, optimistic outlook for nickel sulfate
From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, an increase of 39.2% and 38.5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 45%. With the high nickel content of ternary batteries becoming the mainstream technology path, nickel sulfate as the core precursor raw material, there is still a demand gap in the future, which will provide solid support for nickel prices in the medium and long term.

Outlook for the future: Short term pressure fluctuations, medium to long term elasticity still exists
Nickel prices are still suppressed by high inventory and weak spot prices in the short term, with limited upward space, and are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. However, the market should not be overly pessimistic. Once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, the improvement of global liquidity is expected to boost the overall sentiment of the metal sector; The sustained high growth of the new energy industry provides structural support for nickel consumption; If the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” consumption peak season is realized, the recovery of stainless steel production may drive a temporary rebound in nickel demand.

Cobalt prices continue to rise

According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on September 10th was 270600 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.20% compared to the cobalt price of 262200 yuan/ton on August 20th. The increase in overseas orders has led to an increase in demand for cobalt in the international market, resulting in fluctuating cobalt prices.
US Strategic Reserve Cobalt Alloy
The US Department of Defense and Defense Logistics Agency have released tender documents, planning to purchase approximately 7480 tons of alloy grade cobalt for strategic reserves over the next five years, with a maximum procurement amount of up to $500 million. Cobalt is a key raw material for manufacturing components such as batteries, high-temperature alloys for aircraft engines, and gas turbines, and the United States mainly relies on imports. And China is the main exporter of cobalt, which has increased support for the rise of the cobalt market.
MB Cobalt Price Trend
From the MB cobalt price trend chart, it can be seen that the MB cobalt price has continued to rise since late August. The rise in international cobalt prices is positive for the domestic cobalt market, and the driving force for the increase in domestic cobalt prices has increased.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the strategic reserve of cobalt alloy in the United States has led to an increase in demand for cobalt in the international market, an increase in overseas cobalt orders, and an increase in the driving force for cobalt price increases, resulting in a volatile rise in cobalt prices. Expected strong consolidation of cobalt prices in the future.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained stable at a low level in early September, with most spot prices of various brands remaining stable. As of September 9th, the benchmark price of Business Society PC hybrid is around 14250 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of September
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In September, domestic PC aggregation enterprises experienced narrow fluctuations in load, with a slight decline from 82% at the end of last month to 79%. The average weekly production level within the range is over 65000 tons, and the on-site supply is abundant. In terms of inventory, there is a high-level stalemate, and the pattern of abundant PC supply remains unchanged. At present, the scheduled rotation and parking of Lihua Yiwei Yuan’s blowing task and Wanhua Chemical Plant are coming to an end. At the same time, the load of Zhejiang Petrochemical is gradually returning, and the future supply is expected to continue to be loose. The shipment pressure of the aggregation plant remains unchanged, and the market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A significantly rose in early September. Upstream phenol and acetone both showed a narrow increase, which has a certain boosting effect on bisphenol A. On the other hand, the inventory digestion of bisphenol A enterprises has slightly improved the pattern of loose supply. However, overall, the support effect of bisphenol A on the cost of PC is discounted due to the constraints of PC’s own supply and demand situation.
In terms of demand: Currently, PC is at the junction of traditional off-season and peak season, but downstream factory loads have not rebounded, inventory remains at a weak level of rigid demand, and there has been no early warehouse construction operation. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, it is difficult to improve the supply-demand contradiction within the range. In addition, with weak foreign trade orders, terminal enterprises are under pressure and are resistant to high priced sources of goods. On the other hand, the financial pressure on traders has increased synchronously, and there has been an increase in the practice of offering discounts and taking orders. The circulation speed of on-site goods is slow, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
At the beginning of September, the domestic PC market remained low and sideways. The upstream bisphenol A market has risen, and the increase in cost value has a certain stabilizing effect on PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants remains stable with small fluctuations, and expectations for the future market are relaxed, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand has not increased significantly, and industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the traditional peak season. At present, PC prices are at a historical low, and it is recommended to closely monitor the demand side consumption situation in the market.

Business Society: Supply and demand are weak, melamine market continues to be weak

This week, the melamine market did indeed continue its weak pattern, with an overall trend of weak supply and demand, and weak and stable price pressure. As of September 8th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5687.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to the beginning of this month (5662.50 yuan/ton).
The current melamine market mainly presents the following characteristics:
Overall weak consolidation of prices: As can be seen from the table, although some companies have raised their quotations, the domestic average price still fell by 0.54% month on month. The mainstream prices are generally low, with factory quotes in the East China region referring to 5130-5350 yuan/ton, and explicitly mentioning “partially negotiable”, indicating that there is room for discounts in actual transactions.
Continued weak demand: The market has a weak buying and selling atmosphere, with downstream companies mainly purchasing on demand and few new orders being transacted. This is mainly due to the sustained downturn in downstream industries such as real estate, which has led to flat demand in major consumer sectors such as artificial boards.
The industry’s operating rate remains relatively high, and enterprise inventory is under pressure: although the capacity utilization rate on September 5th decreased compared to the previous day (57.92%), overall the capacity utilization rate still fluctuates at a high level of around 58%. Under the combined effect of high operating rates and sluggish demand, some enterprises are facing pressure from inventory accumulation.
Poor production profit: Industry data shows that the production profit margin is already negative (-1.38%), and expectations continue to decline. This indicates that many companies are in a loss making state at the current price level.
The price of raw material urea has decreased: The upstream raw material urea price has slightly decreased. As of September 8th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1703.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the beginning of this month (1712.50 yuan/ton). The weakening of support for the cost of melamine has also dragged down market sentiment from the cost side.
In the short term, the positive factors for the melamine market are limited, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate weakly. The core contradiction in the market lies in the imbalance between high supply levels and weak downstream demand. If there is no significant improvement on the demand side, it cannot be ruled out that prices may continue to decline slightly. We need to pay attention to whether downstream construction after the end of autumn can bring about a rebound in demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 5, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5983 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6100 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.91%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a trend of first falling and then stabilizing. At the beginning of the week, some factories and suppliers in the n-butanol market in Shandong Province lowered their n-butanol shipment prices by around 50-150 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the overall focus of negotiations in the n-butanol market was on consolidating at a lower level, and there was no significant fluctuation in the market. As of September 5th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 5900-6100 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and demand: During the week, the pressure on the supply side of n-butanol was still acceptable, with low inventory levels in the market and active shipments from factories. Downstream demand for n-butanol showed caution, with downstream demand seeking to replenish at low prices. The overall inquiry atmosphere was low-end, and low transaction performance was still good. The transmission between n-butanol supply and demand was relatively stable.
In terms of cost: This week, the overall market situation of propylene in Shandong has been fluctuating with a narrow upward adjustment. On September 5th, the reference price of propylene was 6678.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53% compared to September 1st (6643.25 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is quiet and moderate, and the cost side still provides narrow support to the market. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate smoothly, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

Since early September, the price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market has fluctuated and risen. As of September 5th, the mainstream self raising price for tank discharge in East China ports has increased from 8200-8300 yuan/ton to around 8450-8550 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market has increased from 8050-8150 yuan/ton to 8300-8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The spot ex factory price represented by Lihua Yi in the Shandong market has also increased from 8000 yuan/ton to the current 8250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.13%.

Supply reduction
The direct factor for this round of price increase still comes from the supply side, with unplanned reductions in the East China region. Among them, Zhejiang Petrochemical experienced a malfunction and reduced its load at the end of August, and plans to overhaul a set of equipment for about 10 days in mid September; At the same time, a line of Sinochem Quanzhou will start parking in early August and may stop completely in mid September; Shanghai SECCO maintains a set of equipment in operation; Sinopec is maintaining the operation of 2-3 sets of facilities, with approximately 70% currently in operation.
According to statistics, as of September 4th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories has dropped to 72.85%, a decrease of -1.12% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output is about 81500 tons, a decrease of 1200 tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 42800 tons, an increase of 0.120 tons from last week. Under low inventory conditions, there is a decrease in supply, which provides an opportunity for the propylene market to rise.
Stable demand:
The overall performance of the demand side in September is relatively stable. Although the production of acrylic fiber and ABS has temporarily decreased, other industries such as acrylamide have shown improvement, and the traditional peak season and pre holiday stocking expectations still have some support. As of September 5th, the load reduction or shutdown of the northern unit resulted in an ABS capacity utilization rate of 69.0%, which was -1.8% higher than last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 60.66%. Daqing Petrochemical is undergoing maintenance, and Jimeng Acrylic Fiber has reduced its load, which is nearly 15% lower than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 54.97%, an increase of 1.36% compared to last week, and the units in Shandong and Henan have increased or restarted.
Cost support:
Recently, the high price of upstream propylene has led to a further increase in the production cost of acrylonitrile, which has also to some extent driven up the market. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9006 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 1.35%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -685 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -49 yuan/ton.
In the future forecast, the acrylonitrile market is expected to experience a preference atmosphere of high cost, low inventory, and reduced supply in the first half of September. However, the above positive support is limited and variable, and coupled with insufficient follow-up of long-term demand, the improvement of market supply and demand relationship is still difficult to sustain. In the second half of the month, the northern maintenance facilities will gradually resume, and at the same time, the demand for stocking up before the National Day holiday will also be activated. The news is mixed, and the market may once again fall into a stalemate.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, starting from September 1st, the hydrogen peroxide market has weakened, with a main decline. On September 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 703 yuan/ton, and on September 4th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9% in price.

Negative pressure on hydrogen peroxide market weakens
Starting from September, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has declined, and some manufacturers of hydrogen peroxide are still stopping for maintenance. The supply pressure has decreased, and there is a long short game, resulting in weak hydrogen peroxide prices. As of September 4th, the average price in the domestic market has dropped to around 690 yuan/ton. The market transactions are average and the market is declining.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid September, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry will be sluggish, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply will still exist, resulting in a weak market in the future.

Under the support of tight supply, the melamine market has indeed shown a trend of rebounding from decline to rise. As of September 2nd, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (5662.50 yuan/ton).

1、 Price trend:
The price trend of melamine in August can be described as fluctuating. The domestic melamine market fluctuated in July.
Early October: The market continued the weakness of July, and prices were under pressure at one point.
Mid month: There was a noticeable rebound. This is mainly due to the sharp contraction of the supply side: affected by the continuous high temperature weather, the equipment in major production areas such as Sichuan and Anhui passively reduced load, and the overall load rate of the industry fell to about 40% at one point (mid August data). The tight supply has led to sustained low inventory in the market, and some manufacturers have adopted a strategy of controlling quantity and accepting orders, driving prices to rise accordingly.
Late to present: Market sentiment tends to be cautious, and prices have entered a stable consolidation stage. With the restart of some maintenance facilities, the capacity utilization rate has significantly rebounded from its low point (as of August 28th, the capacity utilization rate has risen to 58.5%), and the increase in supply has eased the previous tense situation. At the same time, there has been no strong recovery on the demand side, resulting in a lack of sustained upward momentum for prices and an overall trend towards stability.
2、 Supply side:
The changes in the melamine market in August were mainly driven by changes in the supply side. During the month, the industry’s operating rate plummeted to 44.32% (the lowest level in nearly three years), and daily production decreased significantly by over 30%. This is the most core factor driving the price to stop falling and rise again. Subsequently, with the planned restart of some maintenance facilities, the capacity utilization rate rebounded from a low level, and the supply side’s support for prices weakened to some extent.
3、 Demand side:
The demand side has not provided strong upward momentum for prices:
In terms of domestic demand: Although the demand for the main downstream board industry has slightly rebounded, it is still constrained by the sluggish real estate industry, and the overall recovery is limited.
In terms of foreign trade, the export market has shown lackluster performance, with limited new orders. Although the cumulative export volume from January to May was 263100 tons, a slight increase of 0.34% year-on-year, the adjustment of international tariff policies has also affected exports.
Downstream procurement should be cautious and focus on on-demand procurement.
4、 Cost side:
Weakening of raw material urea prices: As the core raw material of melamine, urea prices showed an overall downward trend throughout August. As of September 2nd, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1707.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the beginning of this month (1712.50 yuan/ton). The decline in urea prices has weakened the cost support for melamine.
Despite the decline in raw material prices, the rebound in melamine prices is limited, and the industry as a whole is still in a loss making state. As of August 28th, the production profit margin was -1.38%, although slightly narrowed from the previous week’s -1.40%, it did not fundamentally improve. The operational pressure on enterprises remains significant.
5、 Future prospects
For the melamine market in September, it is expected to show a pattern of stable to weak and fluctuating consolidation:
Supply side: Capacity utilization is expected to continue to rise slightly. If the operating rate continues to recover, market supply will increase, which may suppress prices.

On the demand side, the traditional peak consumption season of “golden September and silver October” is the biggest expectation of the market. If the demand for downstream industries such as sheet metal can increase as scheduled, it will become a key driving force for price increases. On the contrary, if the demand recovery falls short of expectations, the market will find it difficult to shake off the weak trend.
Cost side: Urea prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern within a narrow range, and the cost impact on melamine may be relatively neutral.
In summary, the melamine market achieved a rebound in August due to the tightening of supply beyond expectations. But with the gradual recovery of supply and the lackluster performance on the demand side, the market’s upward momentum weakened and entered a stage of stable consolidation. Whether the market can break out of the consolidation pattern in September largely depends on whether the demand increment brought by the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” can arrive as scheduled. If demand can be effectively released, prices are expected to gain new upward momentum; If demand continues to be weak, the market will find it difficult to shake off a weak and volatile trend.