Since the beginning of this year, the melamine market has suffered a Waterloo, with prices continuously bottoming out. As of June 30th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5875.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the beginning of this month (5950.00 yuan/ton), setting a new record for the lowest price of the year. Compared to the same period last year (when the highest price exceeded 7500/ton), the current price has decreased by 15.94%. In June, it fell below 6000 yuan. The core driving force behind this deep correction is undoubtedly the fundamental shift in the market supply and demand pattern.

Production cost impact
In the first half of this year, the high profit margin and stable operation of the melamine industry greatly stimulated production enthusiasm. Manufacturers have increased their operating rates, resulting in a rise in production and a significant increase in net market supply. Especially in June, social inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level. However, in sharp contrast to the hot demand on the supply side is the weakness of downstream demand. As the main consumer sector, the artificial board industry has shown a sluggish performance in the entire industry chain, and the operating rate of domestic board companies has also remained low. This makes the demand for melamine appear particularly flat.
As the core raw material of melamine, the price fluctuation of urea directly affects the market trend. The volatile decline in melamine prices in June was largely due to the cost collapse of urea – dragged down by weakened terminal demand and international oil prices. As of July 1st, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1823.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.65% compared to the beginning of last month (1892.00 yuan/ton). This not only directly lowers the production cost line of melamine, but also exacerbates the downward pressure on its price through market expectations transmission
Export is the focus of demand increment
In 2025, the cumulative monthly export of melamine from January to May will be 263100 tons (+0.34% year-on-year), with an estimated annual total of 302200 tons.
Annual average urea price predicted to be lower than the first half of the year
Preliminary judgment shows that the average price of domestic urea (Shandong small and medium-sized granules) in the second half of the year will be lower than that in the first half, and the core operating range may be between 170-2100. Market driven by stages: loose supply and demand in July and August may lead to a stepped decline; Benefiting from local production restrictions and light storage, there may be a slight rebound in September and October; At the end of the year (November December), under the influence of multiple uncertain factors (exports, light storage, gas head, macro, and unexpected events), price volatility increased and fluctuated repeatedly. Supply and demand forecast for the second half of the year
With the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year, the melamine industry’s production capacity may reach 220 tons per year by 2025.
The trend of loosening real estate policies in the second half of the year may continue, but the significant increase in incremental demand still needs to wait. Specific demand rhythm: The off-season from July to August restricts the recovery of domestic demand; After September, with the end of the off-season, melamine consumption is expected to increase.

Based on comprehensive supply and demand, the melamine market is unlikely to see a significant rebound in the second half of the year. July: The concentrated maintenance of faults supported the price increase in the first half of the month, and the market weakened in the second half with the recovery of equipment. August: Prices may remain stable under the support of major repairs in Xinjiang. September October: Benefiting from improved demand and rising prices of urea raw materials, the market is expected to rise. November December: As the domestic Spring Festival approaches, demand is decreasing, but export plans are being supported by pre production or incremental growth. The mainstream ex factory price range is expected to be between 5400-6300 yuan/ton in the second half of the year.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 3rd, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 8850 yuan/ton. Compared to June 29th (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 8640 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 210 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall upward trend this week. During the week, the spot market price of silicon metal was generally adjusted upwards, with reference to 8300-8400 yuan/ton for the 553 # market price in the East China region, with an increase of 200-300 yuan/ton during the week; The market price of Metal Silicon 441 # in the East China region is based on 8800-8900 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 300-400 yuan/ton. The market price of Metal Silicon 441 in the Huangpu Port region is based on around 8800-8900 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton. The market price of metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin area is based on 8700~8800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 300-400 yuan/ton.
Fundamental information
In terms of supply and production: In June, the reference production of silicon metal was around 327600 tons, with an increase in production. In July, we entered a period of abundant water supply. Although a small portion of production capacity resumed in Yunnan and southwestern regions, the overall supply of silicon metal decreased due to reduced production in Xinjiang alone.
In terms of demand: Currently, the demand for metallic silicon remains mainly driven by rigid procurement, and there has been a slight increase in downstream polycrystalline silicon production, which may boost future demand.
Market analysis in the future
Currently, the trading in the metal silicon spot market is moderate, and the supply and demand transmission performance is still good. The metal silicon data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

In June, the domestic phenol market first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase and a slight month on month increase in average price. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 6687 yuan/ton on June 1st and 6747 yuan/ton on June 30th, an increase of 0.9%.

In the first ten days after the Dragon Boat Festival, with the rising price of pure benzene as the raw material, traders pushed up their offer. Supported by the cost side, traders actively pushed up their offer, but the demand side was less than expected. The terminal was cautious in chasing up, and the overall increase was far less than that of pure benzene; The sharp drop in crude oil prices in the latter half of the month has dragged down the price of pure benzene, affecting downstream products and causing the market to fall again. However, considering the high monthly average price and the low pressure on contract shipments at the end of the month, there is limited room for profit margins.
In terms of equipment in June: The pre parking equipment is still in operation. The 350000 ton/year unit of Tianjin Petrochemical was shut down for 40 days and resumed operation on June 2nd. The 320000 ton/year phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou was shut down for maintenance on June 13th, lasting about 30 days.
As of the 30th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
Region./30 day quotation /June’s ups and downs
East China region / 6650./ 50
Shandong region / 6750./ 50
Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain / 6750./ 50
South China region / 6700./ 50
Business Society expects that Yangzhou Shiyou will resume production in terms of equipment and Zhenhai will refine products. The domestic supply is expected to increase compared to June, with an estimated monthly output of nearly 500000 tons. In terms of ports, the expected replenishment of ocean going cargo contracts will decrease, and there will be little pressure on ports. Continue to pay attention to the changes in pure benzene driven by crude oil, as the cost is increasingly affected by the phenol market. Downstream, phenolic resin is in a relatively off-season, while other industries remain stable. Overall, the phenol market is still more bearish than bullish, with a price range of 6500-6750 yuan/ton.

In the first half of 2025, the domestic acrylonitrile market price rose and then fell, with supply changes dominating the price trend. While the equipment fluctuated, new production capacity was gradually released. At the beginning of the year, the market briefly rose sharply, and then fluctuated at a low level for a long time. During this period, the supply-demand gap between the mainland and port areas to some extent widened the price difference between the eastern and western markets, especially in mid to early April. The highest point of the first half of the year in the East China port area occurred on February 7th, at 11800-12000 yuan/ton, and in Shandong, at 11700-11900 yuan/ton. These levels reached a new high for the year and also set a new high since early January 2022.

The operating rhythm of the acrylonitrile market in the first half of the year can be simply divided into two stages: after experiencing a roller coaster like market trend in January and February, the domestic acrylonitrile market has once again become flat since March, with prices fluctuating between 8000-9000 yuan/ton for most of the time. In May, the market further froze, hovering around 8100-8500 yuan/ton with slight fluctuations.
After a sharp rise in prices in the first quarter, the domestic acrylonitrile market experienced a rapid increase in prices from January to early February. In early January, due to the unexpected shutdown of a unit in Shandong Lihua Yi, the already tight supply situation was once again exacerbated, and the listing prices of the main factories increased significantly. Moreover, with low social inventory and limited inventory held by businesses, the spot market is extremely tight, and the listing prices of large factories continue to rise. In addition, there are many downstream stocking expectations before the Spring Festival holiday, so market prices continue to rise.
During the Spring Festival period, downstream industry demand weakened. Therefore, some traders, in order to seize market share and lower sales prices, restarted the previously repaired equipment one after another. Coupled with the continuous production of new equipment by Yulong Petrochemical, the market supply pressure gradually increased. Under the influence of bearish sentiment, suppliers actively shipped, resulting in frequent low price offers in the spot market. In mid March, the decline in the acrylonitrile market slowed down, and multiple acrylonitrile production units announced production reduction plans, resulting in a decrease in supply expectations and a corresponding reduction in low price offers on site.
China’s Acrylonitrile Production Capacity Increase Plan from 2025 to 2026:
Continued low-level fluctuations in the second quarter: In April, Yulong Petrochemical and Sinochem Quanzhou’s new facilities were put into operation, and low-priced goods continued to flow out, which suppressed the mentality of industry players and led to a continuous decline in spot market quotes. Before and after the May Day holiday, the acrylonitrile market remained relatively calm, with little change in the overall transaction focus. However, as the situation of tight spot supply in some areas gradually emerged, acrylonitrile factories raised their prices one after another. In late May, Shandong Haili restarted, and after several days of stalemate, factory prices fell, and the spot market also followed suit. In June, the 400000 ton new plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Company was put into operation one after another, and the supply continued to increase. However, due to cost pressure and local supply variables, market trading was deadlocked.

Market forecast: Due to the release of new production capacity in Zhenhai Refining and Chemical, the overall supply of acrylonitrile is expected to increase in July, while consumption may weaken to some extent due to the traditional off-season. Among them, the operating load of the acrylamide industry may continue to decline. Therefore, the overall fundamentals of the acrylonitrile market are weak in the short term, and prices lack effective rebound momentum. However, cost drivers still exist. The increase in supply variables caused by unplanned parking and load reduction in the second half of the year will determine when the market rebounds based on the degree of supply reduction.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province continued to rise this week (6.23-6.27), with an average market price of 16050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16262 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.32%.

This week, the market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then strengthening, with the price center shifting upwards as the market gradually bottomed out. The psychological state of downstream buyers has also changed accordingly, and market sentiment has shifted from cautious observation to active price support. The current market as a whole is showing a stable and positive operating pattern.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the inventory levels of smelting enterprises have further reduced this week, which has significantly increased their willingness to raise prices. Compared to the previous period, the situation of actively lowering prices for shipments has significantly decreased. From the demand side, the wait-and-see atmosphere on the application side is still strong, and downstream buyers mostly adhere to the rigid procurement strategy, maintaining low inventory levels.
Raw material end
Coal prices continue to rise, while orchid charcoal prices remain generally stable, and silicon iron prices remain stable. Overall costs have shown a slight upward trend this week.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, the trend of the magnesium ingot market is likely to continue its stable and strengthening trend. On the supply side, inventory is low and costs have rigid support, which provides a solid bottom support for magnesium ingot prices; However, if there is no significant improvement on the demand side, the upward potential of magnesium ingot prices may be constrained to some extent.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices showed an “N” shaped trend in June. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 78286.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 78886.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.77% and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices in June were mostly higher than futures prices, with the main contract being the expected price two months later, and the expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory continued to decline significantly in June. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 93475 tons, a decrease of 37.63% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, Powell emphasized in his congressional testimony on June 24th that “there is still uncertainty about the sustainability of inflation,” dampening the market’s optimistic expectations for a rate cut in July. However, officials such as Bauman and Waller’s dovish statements still support the probability of a rate cut remaining around 60%. The easing of the situation in the Middle East (ceasefire in Iran) and the EU’s countermeasures against US tariffs have formed a hedge, the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz has subsided, and the sharp drop in crude oil prices has dragged down overall metal sentiment. Domestically, stable growth policies continue to be implemented (such as car trade ins and equipment upgrades), but the improvement in terminal demand is concentrated in a few sectors such as automobiles and home appliances, while sectors such as construction and photovoltaics remain weak, resulting in a “structural differentiation” of policy effects.
Supply side: Global copper concentrate spot processing fees (TC) remain low, reflecting a shortage in the mining sector. The Kamoa Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended some production due to floods, and the transportation volume from Chile and Peru has decreased significantly compared to the previous period, further exacerbating supply pressure. Although Chinese smelters are facing losses in processing fees, the export volume of refined copper fell in May, indicating limited capacity release and unresolved supply side contradictions.
Downstream: The copper consumption for new energy vehicles is expected to increase by 25% year-on-year, and the demand for copper in data centers may increase sixfold, providing long-term support for copper prices. But traditional demand areas are showing signs of fatigue: automobiles, the United States plans to impose tariffs on imported cars, directly impacting demand; Home appliances, the peak season for domestic sales in China fell short of expectations, and export orders were constrained by weak overseas demand; The bidding pace of the power grid is slow, and the release of demand is lagging behind.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have fallen more or risen less in July, and the decline in copper prices in July this year is a highly probable event.
In summary, in the short term, the shortage and low inventory in the mining sector may provide support for copper prices, but the weakness of traditional sectors in the demand side and the threat of tariffs may mainly cause fluctuations in copper prices.

On June 24th, international crude oil futures plummeted to a two-week low. The settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $64.37 per barrel, a decrease of $4.14 or 6.0%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $67.14 per barrel, a decrease of $4.34 or 6.1%. The expected ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has reduced the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.
The PTA market followed the decline in crude oil prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on June 24th, the focus of the domestic PTA spot market shifted downwards. The average price of PTA in the East China region was 5114 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 3.18%. On the supply side, domestic supply has slightly shrunk. The overall construction rate of the industry is around 78%.

Downstream polyester maintains essential procurement, and the polyester production load remains at around 90% in late June. However, there are still expectations of reducing the burden, and the officially announced maintenance plan for the polyester plant is scheduled for July. Under the influence of the off-season effect, the number of orders from terminal textile enterprises is insufficient, and new orders are still mostly small autumn and winter sample orders. Entering August, the weather is hot and the off-season characteristics are obvious. The production reduction efforts of polyester factories will further increase, so the expectation of weak demand is strong.
Business analysts believe that in the future, strong geopolitical uncertainty will amplify oil price fluctuations, and the supply of PX raw materials will return. The new PTA plant has been put into operation and gradually increased its load, leading to an increase in domestic supply. Coupled with a certain decrease in downstream polyester industry load, there is an expectation of a weakening in PTA supply and demand. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to operate primarily at cost in the short term.

This week, the domestic melamine market stabilized and remained stagnant. As of June 24th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5862.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47% compared to the beginning of this month (5950.00 yuan/ton).

Recently, the domestic melamine market has shown a weak consolidation trend, and there are multiple factors that contribute to the price game. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, upstream production enterprises stimulate market transactions by actively lowering their quotations (with low-end prices reaching the range of 5200-5400 yuan/ton), coupled with periodic replenishment of international orders, effectively digesting enterprise inventory levels and gradually reducing some low-priced sources to a reasonable range.
The fluctuation and decline of urea prices on the raw material side have weakened the cost support, while the shortened pre order cycle of production enterprises has further constrained their ability to act on prices. On the downstream demand side, there is a clear wait-and-see situation, and processing enterprises are constrained by sufficient reserves of low-priced raw materials in the early stage and low operating loads. The current procurement strategy tends to replenish inventory on demand, leading to a “price sensitive” stalemate in market trading. This pattern of multiple intertwined factors has maintained a weak balance in the melamine market in the short term.
In the later stage, the melamine market trend is relatively weak.
The utilization rate of melamine production capacity has slightly increased this week. Currently, with the support of undelivered orders, the shipping pressure on production enterprises is not yet significant. However, as orders continue to be executed, market supply is expected to gradually increase. At the same time, downstream factories have a low acceptance of high priced raw materials and a clear resistance mentality. Manufacturers may face adjustments in their pricing strategy and market mentality in order to maintain the pace of shipments.
The mainstream price of urea in the current market remains stable, but prices in some areas have loosened and declined. As of June 24th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1824.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.59% compared to the beginning of this month (1892.00 yuan/ton). Although downstream demand has been followed up, it is mainly driven by cautious sentiment and focuses on small order replenishment. In terms of supply, the daily production of urea remains high, coupled with the expectation of international price inversion and coal weakening, the bearish atmosphere in the market is gradually becoming stronger. However, the factory’s pending orders are still supported and the social inventory is low. The quotation is temporarily stable, and the market has entered a wait-and-see game stage. It is expected that the short-term market will show a fluctuating and weak trend.
Overall, the melamine market lacks strong positive support. In the short term, relying on existing advance orders, the market will maintain a stalemate. However, as the orders are gradually digested, the supply and demand sides will once again engage in a game. The future price trend will depend on the dynamic changes in supply and demand, fluctuations in raw material costs, and the evolution of market participants’ mentality.

Cobalt prices are expected to experience a second wave of upward trend

According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on June 23 was 249800 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 7.35% compared to the cobalt price of 232700 yuan/ton on June 22. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced an extension of the temporary ban on cobalt exports for another three months, leading to a significant decrease in supply expectations and a sharp rise in cobalt prices.
Congo decides to extend cobalt product exports for 3 months
On June 21, the board of directors of the Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo took significant regulatory measures. In view of the continued high inventory of cobalt in the market, it has been decided to extend the temporary ban on cobalt exports for another three months from the effective date of this decision, applicable to all cobalt exports originating from mining in Congo, regardless of whether they come from industrial, semi industrial, small-scale or manual mining.
Congo’s exports are expected to transition from oversupply to shortage
The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has extended the temporary ban on cobalt exports for another three months, which will make it difficult for China to import cobalt hydrometallurgical intermediates from the country from June to December. The expected reduction of 128000 tons in cobalt raw material exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2025 may shift the global cobalt industry from oversupply to shortage, leading to a decrease in supply in the cobalt market and an increase in the driving force for cobalt price increases.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo in February led to a significant increase in the price of electrolytic cobalt. However, the domestic cobalt industry has accumulated a large amount of historical inventory, and cobalt manufacturers have been selling at high levels, resulting in a sharp rise in cobalt prices before falling back from high levels. The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo has significantly reduced the expected supply in the cobalt market, and increased market expectations for a rise in cobalt prices, leading to upstream reluctance to sell. The cobalt industry may shift from oversupply to supply shortage, and cobalt prices are expected to start a second wave of upward trend.
However, there are still uncertain factors in this upward trend. Firstly, in terms of policies, the implementation of the cobalt export ban policy by the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo may not meet expectations, and the reduction in supply in the cobalt market may not be as expected; Secondly, in terms of supply, the inventory of cobalt industry is still at a high level, the mining output of cobalt ore in Indonesia and other markets has increased, and the supply of cobalt ore in the cobalt market has increased, and the supply of cobalt market may exceed expectations; In terms of final demand, the demand for consumer electronics and ternary power batteries fell short of expectations, and the cobalt market’s upward support was insufficient.
In general, in terms of supply, the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo extended the ban on cobalt exports, and the supply of cobalt in the cobalt market decreased. However, the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo was hard to predict the implementation of the policy, and the mining output of Indonesia’s cobalt mine increased. In addition, the cobalt industry’s inventory was still high, so the supply of cobalt in the cobalt market was short or not as expected; In terms of demand, the growth in demand for consumer electronics and ternary batteries is slow, and the support for the rising demand in the cobalt market is insufficient. Supply shortage and poor demand are expected to lead to a significant increase in cobalt prices in the future, which will then fluctuate and stabilize.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on June 20th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 8620 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as June 13th. Compared with June 1st (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 8780 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall fluctuation of the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 is not significant, and the market is mainly operating in a consolidated manner. As of June 20th, the market price of metal silicon 441 # in East China is around 8400-8600 yuan/ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. The market price of metal silicon 553 # without oxygen is around 8000-8300 yuan/ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 in Kunming area is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Tianjin area is around 8200-8400 yuan/ton.
Fundamental information
In terms of supply and output: Currently, the output of silicon metal supply is on the rise. Firstly, some large factories in Xinjiang have increased production and production. Secondly, some facilities in the southwest region have been slightly expanded. Therefore, the overall supply and production of metallic silicon have increased.
In terms of inventory: As of this week, the social inventory of silicon metal in major regions is about 600000 tons, a decrease of about 13000 tons compared to last week.
In terms of construction: Currently, the weekly construction rate in Xinjiang is around 68-70%, and the overall weekly construction rate has increased compared to last week. The weekly operating rate in the northwest region is around 73-75%, which has decreased compared to last week. Some facilities in the region have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in overall operating rates. The weekly operating rate in Yunnan region is around 15-17%, slightly lower than last week. The weekly operating rate in Sichuan region is around 46-48%, which is basically the same as last week.
In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream of silicon metal continues to focus on essential procurement, and the overall production situation of downstream industries has generally improved, resulting in a relatively slow increase in overall demand for silicon metal.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the transmission between supply and demand is still acceptable. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate within a certain range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.