1、 Market Review
This week, melamine has emerged from an extreme market trend of “sharp decline followed by sideways trend”. The benchmark price of Shengyi Society fell from 8050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7025 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a cumulative decline of 12.73% for the whole week, almost wiping out most of the previous gains and becoming the week with the most severe decline since this round of rise.
Core driving factors for decline
1. In the early stage of price surge on the supply and demand side, the market is overly optimistic about the peak season demand for downstream boards and coatings. However, terminal demand has not shown any improvement this week, and downstream enterprises only maintain essential procurement, resulting in a complete collapse of their willingness to accept high priced orders; At the same time, the equipment that was shut down for maintenance in the early stage resumed production, and the market supply quickly rebounded. The supply-demand contradiction shifted from tight balance to loose, and prices lost their upward support.
At the beginning of the week, a sharp drop of nearly 10% in a single day broke the market’s bullish expectations, and pessimism quickly spread. Some traders chose to clear inventory at low prices to avoid risks, exacerbating the downward pressure on the market.
Trend prediction
Based on this week’s technical signals and market fundamentals, the following are the predictions for next week’s trend:
Short term (1-2 weeks): Due to the “negative expansion” stage of the mean, the momentum of inertia decline still exists. There is a strong pessimistic sentiment in the market, and downstream buyers are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the price will repeatedly compete around the 7450 yuan/ton line. If the support is weak, there is still a risk of further exploring the 7000 yuan integer level.
Mid term (1 month): Pay attention to when the 10 day moving average will level. Only when the price stops falling and stabilizes, and the moving average shifts from “negative expansion” to “negative contraction”, is it a signal of slowing down the decline and market bottoming out.

Since April 2026, the natural rubber market has seen a slight increase. As of April 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17150 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.52% from 16566 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Due to weather disturbances, the rubber cutting process at home and abroad is slow, and the overall supply is tight. The main production areas of Yunnan and Hainan in China continue to experience high temperatures and little rainfall, and some areas in Yunnan have temporarily stopped cutting due to drought. After cutting in Hainan, the release of glue is slow. Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Vietnam have also been affected by drought disturbances, leading to higher prices for raw material adhesives. Raw material prices in Thai production areas have reached a new high in recent years, with strong cost support. ANRPC data shows that global natural rubber production may slightly contract in 2026, with a supply and demand gap of about 400000 tons for the whole year, and the expectation of tight supply is rising.
Downstream tire companies experience narrow fluctuations in production, with strong demand support being the main factor. As of the week of April 24th, the construction rate of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies was 7.7%; The construction of all steel tires by Shandong tire enterprises started at 6.90%. The demand for natural rubber has some support, but tire inventory continues to rise. The turnover days of all steel tires are nearly 40 days, and the turnover days of semi steel tires are over 43 days. Enterprise procurement is mainly based on rigid needs, and the willingness to replenish inventory is low. ​
Port inventory has slightly increased: as of April 26, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 716300 tons, an increase of 7500 tons compared to the previous period, with a growth rate of 1.06%. ​
Market forecast:
Overall, if the precipitation in the production area continues to be low in the later stage, the expectation of tight supply will be strengthened, and the price is expected to be tested at 17500 yuan/ton; If the drought situation eases, the amount of new glue added accelerates, and the inventory turnover slows down, the price may fall back to around 16500 yuan/ton. ​

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices have fluctuated widely this week. As of the 24th, copper prices were reported at 102618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 31.36%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 7 and risen by 6, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 396000 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 0.61% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the initial value of the US manufacturing PMI in April directly hit 54.0, far exceeding expectations and setting a new high in nearly four years. What does this mean? The US economy is so hot that there is no need for the Federal Reserve to urgently cut interest rates. The employment data is also very hard, with only a slight increase in the number of initial jobless claims. The US dollar index rebounded in response, approaching the 99 level, and the US stock market closed down across the board. For non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars, this is undoubtedly a blow.
Supply side: The acid shortage problem in Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to ferment, and the accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia casts a shadow over the recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year. Although the news of the resumption of production at the Lu’anxia copper mine in Zambia has brought a slight easing, the global surplus reversal predicted by ICSG indicates that the background of tight supply-demand balance remains unchanged.
On the demand side: The traditional sector is showing signs of fatigue, with insufficient consumption of “gold, silver, and four”. Traditional consumer sectors such as real estate, construction engineering, infrastructure construction, and white goods have shown sluggish performance. Due to limited profit margins in these industries, it is difficult to digest the pressure of raw material costs of up to 100000 yuan, which in turn has a very limited driving effect on copper consumption. However, the explosive power of emerging fields is filling this gap. According to data from the International Energy Agency, the global increase in photovoltaic power generation leads renewable energy, coupled with the construction of domestic AI computing centers, the expansion of PCB production, and the strong growth of “new three types” exports (electric vehicle, lithium battery, and solar cell exports increased by 77.5%, 50.4%, and 30.5% respectively in the first quarter), opening up a new growth pole for copper consumption. In addition, the double increase in the transaction area of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities last week also revealed a weak signal of recovery in the real estate sector.
In summary, copper prices are currently in a game of “strong expectations” and “weak reality”. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of copper oversupply in 2026, but also warns of supply risks that may arise from sulfuric acid shortages. The upper part is constrained by the fear of high spot prices and the strength of the US dollar, while the lower part is supported by the shortage of mining resources and geopolitical risks. There is no basis for unilateral skyrocketing or plummeting. For the future market, short-term copper prices are likely to experience wide range fluctuations.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In mid April, the domestic ABS industry experienced a combination of maintenance and resumption of work, with an overall low and stable level. The overall operating level of the industry is slightly increasing at around 60%, with an average weekly output of nearly 130000 tons and finished product inventory rising to 200000 tons. In the short term, there is still a slight expectation of incremental changes in production in the future, and the supply on the market is generally abundant. Overall, the support for spot prices from the ABS supply side has remained flat.
Cost factor: In early April, the situation in the Middle East was volatile, and the mentality of oil market operators was divided. Since mid month, the core logic of the market has rapidly shifted from the previous geopolitical conflict premium to negotiating easing expectations and resonating with negative fundamentals. Combined with the four factors of IEA lowering supply and demand expectations and API inventory surge, international oil prices have plummeted. Affected by it, the upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the petrochemical chain, all fell. Although the industry load of acrylonitrile is not high, the arrival of cargo at the port is low. But the shrinking domestic demand in the market and the sluggish spot trading have dragged down the price center of gravity. A pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices falling. In late April, the domestic ABS market continued to decline, with most spot prices gradually decreasing. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, as of April 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 10916.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.49% from the beginning of the month.
There has been a significant decline in the butadiene market. The gradual loosening of cost support and the weak boost of downstream demand have become the core factors driving the market trend. Even if the overall supply of spot goods is tight, it is difficult to hedge the downward pressure brought by weak demand. The industry as a whole presents a game pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices falling and adjusting in stages.
The styrene market continues to decline. In the short term, there is an expectation of a reduction in petroleum benzene on the raw material side, especially with a continuous decrease in imported sources. The domestic supply and demand pattern of pure benzene tends to be strong, but it is difficult to offset the guidance brought by the heavy decline in crude oil. However, the current consumption of styrene lacks effective driving force, and the market lacks the motivation to continue rising, which may put prices in a dilemma.
In terms of demand: As we enter late April, downstream ABS enterprises are showing a flat trend in production, with the main terminal electrical housing industry experiencing average consumption and no improvement in terminal enterprise profitability. The atmosphere inside the venue has shifted from chasing gains to killing losses, and there has been a significant reduction in operations to replenish and build positions. Merchants offer lower profits in their profit taking positions, causing a drag on the price center. The current ABS finished product inventory position continues to rise, and the buyer camp’s resistance to high priced goods is expanding. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
future market forecast
In early April, the domestic ABS market continued to decline. The production load of the aggregation plant has generally leveled off, and the on-site supply is still abundant. The cost and material prices have all fallen. The current ABS market is in a dual negative situation of high cost decline and weak demand. Under high production capacity, centralized maintenance has limited suppression on inventory accumulation. At present, spot prices are declining at a high level, and trading on the market is relatively quiet.

1、 Market Review of the Past Week

In the past week (April 15-21), the PA66 market has shown a high volatility trend with a slight decline after a surge. On April 14th, the benchmark price of PA66 in Shengyi Society rose to 25100 yuan/ton, setting a new high in price in a year; On April 21st, the benchmark price of PA66 was reported at 24100 yuan/ton, which was slightly lower than April 14th. However, it still rose by 4.93% in 10 days, 20.50% in 30 days, and 52.85% in 60 days, maintaining a high overall trend.
2、 Cause analysis
Cost side – high raw material prices, strong cost support is the core driving force
The raw material side continues to remain at a historically high level, which is the core driving force behind the price increase of PA66 in this round.
In terms of hexamethylenediamine, the execution price of NVIDIA in April has been raised to 26000 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the beginning of the year. In the first quarter, the market price of hexamethylenediamine in East China rose from 16300 yuan/ton in early January to 28000 yuan/ton at the end of March, with a cumulative increase of 11700 yuan/ton, or 71.78%.
In terms of adipic acid, the cumulative increase in the first quarter exceeded 50%. Although the benchmark price of adipic acid slightly decreased by 0.63% in mid April compared to the beginning of the month, the overall trend is still relatively high in history. Adipic acid in East China increased from 7025 yuan/ton in early January to 10800 yuan/ton at the end of March, an increase of 53.74%.
Although the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased recently, the energy premium in the early stage has been deeply embedded in the industrial chain, making it difficult for the short-term cost center to move downwards, and the cost pressure on production enterprises is still relatively high.
Supply and demand side – supply contraction, weak demand, forming a stalemate pattern
The tight supply side supports prices. Recently, there has been a decrease in imported goods, resulting in tight spot circulation in the market and a strong reluctance among traders to sell. Both manufacturers and traders have overall low inventory levels. Supply contraction provides support for spot prices.
Weak demand suppresses upward potential. The downstream textile industry has a low acceptance of high prices and generally adopts the strategy of “small order demand, on-demand procurement”. Large order purchases are rare, and trading activity is insufficient, forming a stalemate pattern of “supply side control and demand suppression”. Some traders have started to sell at a discount in their profit taking positions, which has weakened market confidence.
3、 Short term forecast for the future market
It is expected that the PA66 market will maintain high volatility in the short term, and there is little possibility of a significant unilateral increase or decrease in prices. Overall, strong cost support and weak demand will continue to play a game, with price trends highly dependent on changes in the raw material side and downstream order recovery progress. If there is no significant improvement in terminal demand, high prices or suppression of production will lead to the continuation of the “price but no market” situation.

According to data from Shengyi Society’s spot trading platform, the domestic PP market fluctuated at a high level in late April, with prices of various product brands falling more and rising less. As of April 21st, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing offered by Shengyi Society is 9183.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% from the beginning of the month.

price trend
In terms of raw materials:
Currently, the market’s concerns about the production and transportation of Middle Eastern crude oil under the influence of geopolitical factors have eased, and the international oil price premium is rapidly shifting towards negotiations to ease expectations and resonate with negative fundamentals. The signals of US Iran peace talks continue to rise, with intermittent resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA has lowered its supply and demand expectations, while API inventories have surged. Under the combination of multiple factors, a pattern of weak crude oil has emerged, and the remote cost value of PP has fallen at a high level. In the early stage of propylene production, the centralized maintenance of enterprise equipment has been implemented, and the demand side has steadily received goods. Spot prices have risen to a high level, but the price center has recently rebounded. Although there are still not many shipments of propane at the port, overseas prices have been significantly lowered in the early stages, while domestic spot prices have remained strong in recent days. Overall, the prices of various PP raw materials have fluctuated, which has loosened the support for PP costs.
Supply side:
In mid April, there was a mutual occurrence of maintenance release and return of domestic PP enterprises, and the overall operating rate position was said to have rebounded. As of press time, the overall load of the domestic industry has risen to around 71%. The industry’s loss of production capacity has shrunk, and the current inventory level has rebounded to around 800000 tons, while imports to the port are at a low level. Overall, the supply side still has support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by the high mid-term spot prices, the overall trading atmosphere in the downstream market of the industry is cautious. Last month, oversold contracts and chasing orders from refineries were basically delivered, but the current transaction pace has slowed down and warehouse building operations have decreased. Buyers often use and take as you go, with scattered small orders being the main focus. Some terminal small and micro enterprises that have reduced production and stopped production due to high cost pressures have limited resumption of work, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and acquire goods. The overall demand side is in a wait-and-see situation, with performance falling short of market expectations and average support for PP.
future market forecast
In late April, the domestic PP market prices fell sharply from high levels. Fundamentally speaking, the industry’s load position has basically moved out of the historical low range, but the recovery of supply still requires time. The position of social inventory has rebounded, and port imports remain low. However, with a large production capacity base, the supply of goods can still meet the demand. In terms of futures prices, they have recently fallen, and the widening basis has dragged down spot prices. Business Society PP analysts believe that the current PP market is torn between long and short positions, with ambiguous guidance and insufficient market action in the future, and there may still be downward space.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have risen significantly this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 144000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.65% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 12.86%.
Nickel weekly fluctuation chart
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 6 times and risen 5 times in the past 12 weeks, with a strong rebound in nickel prices recently.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, the international macro is generally warm, but there are still hidden concerns: the US dollar index continues to decline for eight consecutive days, now at the 98 level, marking the longest continuous decline cycle since June 2020; Positive progress has been made in the US Iran negotiations, and market risk aversion has significantly cooled down; The US stock market continues to be strong, with the Nasdaq recording 11 consecutive gains and reaching a new historical high, and the S&P 500 index breaking through the 7000 point integer mark for the first time. Domestically, the GDP growth rate for the first quarter released today meets market expectations, which has boosted market confidence to a certain extent. However, the improvement in downstream demand is limited and has not formed a strong price drive.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in March was 37337 tons, an increase of 14.53% month on month and 1.83% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for April is 38830 tons, an increase of 4.00% month on month and 6.53% year-on-year. The pressure of rising supply side costs is significant, and Indonesia’s policy tightening has become the biggest variable. The country has successively introduced multiple industrial control policies, systematically pushing up the cost curve of the global nickel industry; At the same time, the prices of key upstream raw materials have significantly increased, and the supply of intermediate goods continues to be tight, further raising the production costs of the smelting process.
On the demand side: The overall performance of the demand side is weak, with only the improvement of profits in the stainless steel industry providing relatively stable support; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are stable, but the demand growth for ternary batteries is weak, and the industry is currently in the off-season of traditional consumption; Downstream enterprises generally adopt a cautious purchasing attitude, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory for essential needs, and the high inventory pattern continues to suppress the upward space of prices.
In summary, the tight supply of upstream intermediate goods and weak terminal demand coexist, and the serious imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain greatly limits the volatility elasticity of nickel prices. Macroscopically, the implementation of Indonesia’s new policies has brought about a rise in the bottom support of nickel mines, and the actual supply pressure combined with insufficient inventory digestion constraints is expected to lead to strong fluctuations in nickel prices.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen. On April 16th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 685 points, an increase of 18 points from the 11th, a decrease of 31.98% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 152.77% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13th, 2015.

Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all shown an upward trend. As of the 17th, the price of neodymium oxide was 845000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.68% this week; The price of neodymium metal is 1.05 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.0% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 835000 yuan/ton, with a 4.05% increase this week; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.045 million yuan/ton, with a price trend of 6.63% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 985000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.35% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 812500 yuan/ton, with a 2.20% increase this week.
Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, with core product prices continuing to rise, and the market atmosphere rapidly warming up. The core is the resonance of four major events: the sharp rise in concentrate costs triggering a full chain price adjustment, the depletion of spot inventory, the concentration of essential demand replenishment, and the tightening of supply expectations.
1、 Direct factor: Significant increase in concentrate prices
Baosteel Group and Northern Rare Earth have raised their concentrate prices to 38804 yuan/ton in the second quarter, an increase of 11970 yuan/ton month on month, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of price increases. After the pricing reform, the largest single quarter increase broke the expectation of “slow rise”, and traders and separation factories collectively held back on sales, resulting in a sharp decrease in spot circulation and an increase in the market price of light rare earths.
2、 Spot end: inventory bottoming out, no stock available for sale
The inventory of the entire industry chain is at a historical low, far below the 3-4 month safety line, and low-priced spot goods have basically disappeared. The orders for new energy vehicles and wind power have rebounded, and magnetic material factories have resumed work to replenish inventory. Coupled with overseas panic stocking, it is difficult to find a single item, which has pushed up the prices of rare earths in four markets.
3、 Supply side: rigid locking, expected to be tighter
Domestic quotas are strictly controlled, with a mining quota of 285000 tons by 2026. The growth rate of light rare earths has been suppressed to within 6%, the lowest in recent years, and the supply is inelastic. In addition, the sharp decline in imports from Myanmar has resulted in a month on month decrease of over 40% in port arrivals, insufficient replacement and supplementation of medium and heavy rare earths, and an expanding gap in light rare earths. As a result, the domestic market for light rare earths has risen.
4、 Demand side: Centralized release of new energy essential needs
The sales of new energy vehicles have increased, and the penetration rate of permanent magnet motors is over 95%, making it necessary to replenish the inventory in a centralized manner. Global new installed capacity has increased by 40%, with a surge in offshore megawatt wind turbines and orders scheduled for the second half of the year. Recently, European and American manufacturers have increased their stocking due to supply chain uncertainty, leading to a widening price difference between domestic and international markets and a surge in export orders.
In the short term, the rare earth market is prone to rise but difficult to fall, with a focus on maintaining high levels. With the gradual recovery of demand in downstream fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power installation, and industrial motors, coupled with the continuous tightening of rare earth industry control, the expectation of strategic storage, and the recovery of overseas high-end manufacturing demand, the supply and demand pattern of rare earths is expected to tighten again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.

According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8916 yuan/ton on April 9th, and 8541 yuan/ton on April 16th, a decrease of 4.21%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11933 yuan/ton on April 9th and 11650 yuan/ton on April 16th, a decrease of 2.37%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 9th was 10562 yuan/ton, and on April 16th it was 10400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%.
The recent continuous decline in international crude oil prices and insufficient support from PE production costs have further intensified the bearish sentiment in the market. Among them, LLDPE has the highest sensitivity to crude oil prices, so the weakening of the cost side has the greatest impact on it, and the decline is also the most significant.
The overall supply side is tight, and China is currently in the peak of annual spring inspections, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization and output. Due to the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation, there is a shortage of imports at ports, and inventory is showing a differentiated trend of upstream accumulation and social destocking.
The overall demand side is showing a weak trend during the off-season, with downstream product companies operating at low rates. The demand for agricultural film continues to decline with the end of spring plowing, and there is a shortage of new orders in areas such as packaging film and pipe materials. Under the pressure of high raw material prices, downstream enterprises’ profit margins have been compressed, and their purchasing intentions are cautious, mainly focusing on small orders for essential needs without centralized replenishment behavior, which has limited support for the market.
In the short term, the polyethylene market will maintain a volatile and weak trend, with supply side spring inspections and import disruptions forming certain support. However, the demand side is weak during the off-season, upstream enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the recent weak crude oil prices have led to loose cost support. It is difficult to have a clear directional breakthrough under the long short game.

1、 This week’s market review:
This week, the melamine market continued its downward trend. As of April 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society was reported at 9150.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.43% from the beginning of this week (9675.00 yuan/ton). The overall price was under pressure and fell during the week, with a daily increase or decrease of -3.43%. From the perspective of market performance, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. Coupled with supply side pressure, prices continue to weaken.
2、 Core driver analysis:
On the demand side: The downstream industries such as sheet metal and plastic have average operating rates, and the procurement of raw materials is mainly based on the replenishment of essential inventory, resulting in insufficient demand support.
Supply side: After the maintenance of some devices is completed, production will resume, and the market supply will increase. Coupled with inventory pressure, prices will be further suppressed.
Cost side: The fluctuation of upstream raw material urea prices is not significant, and the cost side support is limited, which has failed to effectively boost the price of melamine. As of April 15th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1875.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54% compared to the beginning of this month (1865.00 yuan/ton).
Future trend prediction:
The short-term price of melamine has fallen below the 10 day moving average, and the 10 day cycle has oversold, indicating a technical rebound demand. However, the 20- and 30 day cycles are still at high levels, and the market’s willingness to chase higher prices is insufficient, with limited room for rebound. If the price cannot quickly recover to 9475 yuan/ton (near the 10 day moving average), or will continue to decline, the lower support is at 9000 yuan/ton, and the strong support is at 8800 yuan/ton (near the 20 day moving average).
The medium-term trend is mainly characterized by high-level fluctuations, and the trend needs to be confirmed. The medium and long-term moving averages are still in a bullish position, and the upward trend has not been disrupted. There is still momentum for rebound in the medium-term. If the price stabilizes at the 20 day moving average after a correction, it will meet the buying conditions and is expected to restart the upward trend; If it effectively falls below the 30 day moving average (about 8600 yuan/ton), the trend will reverse and enter a downward channel.