On June 25, the PX Commodity Index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 25th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily. Since the new plant was put into operation, the domestic market for p-xylene was normally supplied. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of PX plant in Asia is 9.5 US dollars/ton on June 24. The closing price is 816-818 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 835-837 US dollars/ton CFR China. More than 50% of PX plant in China need to be imported. The rise of foreign price has a positive effect on domestic market price of paraxylene. The price of paraxylene in Asia is stable temporarily.

On June 24, the price of WTI crude oil in August rose to 57.90 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.47 US dollars. Brent crude oil in August fell to 64.86 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.34 US dollars. The rising trend of crude oil price has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has stabilized temporarily, PTA price has risen on 24 days. The average price of East China is raised near 6050-6150 yuan/ton. As of 24 days, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 93.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

On June 25, the rare earth index was 402 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 59.80% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 48.34% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals dropped by 12.5 million yuan per ton to 457 million yuan per ton; the average price of dysprosium was 2.4 million yuan per ton; and the average price of praseodymium was 7.1 million yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxides in rare earth oxides dropped by 12.5 million yuan per ton to 355 million yuan per ton, dysprosium oxide by 2 million yuan per ton, praseodymium oxide by 4.05 million yuan per ton, and neodymium oxide by 1.25 million yuan to 3.57 million yuan per ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys dropped by 12.5 million yuan per ton to 457 million yuan per ton, while the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys was 2 million yuan per ton.

Recently, some prices in the rare earth market have fallen, the domestic rare earth market is in general, and most commodity prices in the rare earth market are stable. However, the prices of some products in the rare earth market have fallen sharply and the prices of terbium-based metals have fallen sharply. Recently, the prices of Praseodymium-Neodymium series products have fallen back, the supply in the market is normal, and the prices of light rare earths have declined recently. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is still tense. The price trend of rare earth market has slightly declined. Recently, large enterprise groups are reluctant to sell, and the market of rare earth has improved. However, the major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. Recently, the NDRC held a press conference on macroeconomic operation. Meng Wei, a spokesman for the NDRC, answered reporters’questions on rare earth. He said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the rare earth industry upstream. The supply of raw ore resources has shrunk, and the trading market of rare earth industry is normal.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the recent stringent domestic environmental protection efforts will not decrease, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s restrictions on exports and reduced supply, which will provide some favorable support for the rare earth industry, but the recent rare earth market transactions are limited, and rare earth products are expected to remain volatile.

Last week, the rapid development of the futures market gave petrochemical manufacturers a certain cost support. New maintenance devices have also been opened one after another, which has a certain mitigation effect on supply. In inventory, after a rise in the market, inventory has been effectively digested, and merchants actively shipped, but terminal demand has not improved, or market growth is difficult to have greater expectations.

I. Several Reasons Causing Poor Transaction in Spot Market

1. Supply exceeds demand, and new products are put into the market one after another, which intensifies the rising process of stock backlog in the market.

2. It is difficult for downstream orders to break expectations and market supply to be digested effectively, which aggravates market bullishness.

3. At present, the stock of “two barrels of oil” is still at a high level, and the pressure of market sales is not decreasing.

4. There are not many overhaul devices, and the phenomenon of low-price goods rejection is frequent in the market, mostly low-level transactions.

II. Frequent Inventory Pressure

The high stock of “two barrels of oil” causes the pressure of price reduction of production enterprises to increase gradually. At present, the only way to alleviate the pressure of market inventory is to increase the order quantity of downstream enterprises, or to reduce the production load of manufacturers, or to advance to the maintenance stage, so as to alleviate the pressure of market supply and demand.

3. Prospects for the Future Market of Polypropylene

At present, the cost support of polypropylene has increased due to the increase of most of the previous price of oil and gas, but the follow-up of spot delivery is insufficient. Considering that the price rebound of polypropylene is greatly affected by the macro-level, and the supply and demand side is limited, at the same time, the import window of polypropylene is close to open, the price gap between drawing and copolymerization is gradually close, and there are still plans to put into operation for giant positive sources and other devices in the future. It is expected that the price of PP market will increase slightly in the near future. The main stream of wire drawing is 8500-8700 yuan/ton, and the main stream of copolymerization is 8800-9000 yuan/ton.

1. Commodity Name: Magnesium Ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (2019.6.24): 15900 yuan/ton (lower mainstream quotation)

The ex-factory tax in Fugu area is 15500-15800 yuan/ton; the spot remittance in Taiyuan area is 15700-16000 yuan/ton; the spot remittance in Wenxi area is 15700-16000 yuan/ton; and the spot remittance in Ningxia area is 15600-15700 yuan/ton.

3. The main points of analysis are as follows: at present, the market of magnesium is on the low side, the downstream demand is not enough, the processing enterprises purchase more on demand, the traders enter and exit more quickly, and the willingness to hoard goods is low. At present, the stock of magnesium ingots has increased, and the supply of low-price products has begun to increase sharply. The market mentality of “selling up but not buying down” intensifies the weak operation of the market in the off-season of weak demand at home and abroad.

4. Future market forecast: weak demand, high inventory, magnesium ingot short-term weak operation is expected to be the main.

Price Trend

Market consolidation of maleic anhydride this week (6.17-6.21)

According to data from business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offer by the end of the weekend was 6550.00 yuan/ton (including taxes), and the offer was weak.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole continued to decline.

Industry chain: First of all, unsaturated resin continued to operate weakly this week. Resin factories mainly purchased on demand, and domestic maleic anhydride market weakened. Secondly, mainstream factories continued to offer excessive prices, and the current market supply exceeds demand. The fluctuation of crude oil in the periphery affects the market mentality, and the rise of Crude Oil supports the market to a certain extent. The rise of oil price leads to the rise of pure benzene price in the upstream raw material, while the price of n-butane is still hovering at a low price, the market supply is sufficient, and the downstream is still in the off-season. In the short run, the profit margins of maleic anhydride by benzene and butane methods remain stable. Finally, at present, downstream warehouse replenishment is cautious, and factories are mainly on the lookout.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, domestic maleic anhydride market may stop falling and stabilize in the near future, with prices rising slightly, according to analysts of maleic anhydride products of Business Society Chemical Branch.

Commodity Index: On June 21, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 104.50, which was the same as yesterday. It was 3.34% lower than the peak of 108.11 points in the cycle (2019-04-24), and 3.57% higher than the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Latest price (June 21): Polyaluminium chloride (solid, content (> 28%) quoted 1933.33 yuan/ton.

Main points of analysis: On June 1, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 1950 yuan/ton, and on June 21, the market price of the product did not change much. The mainstream quotation was reported to 1933.33 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation of less than one point. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the current domestic market quotation range of polyaluminium chloride is about 1800-1900 yuan/ton for solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (> 28%) and 330-410 yuan/ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%).

Industry chain: Prices of upstream hydrochloric acid and other products of polyaluminium chloride have not changed much in recent years; downstream demand is basically stable, and the overall price of polyaluminium chloride has fluctuated slightly in recent years.

Future market forecast: In the short term, if there is no big fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the demand in the downstream is relatively stable, and the market price of domestic polyaluminium chloride is basically stable.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market of potassium sulphate has been stable this week, and the price of potassium sulphate in northern China has increased due to insufficient supply.

II. Market Analysis

At present, the arrival price of 50% water and salt powder in Qinghai is more than 2550 yuan per ton. Mannheim’s quotation remains relatively high, and 52% water-soluble shipment is still the main one. The ex-factory price is more than 3000 yuan/ton, but the 50% content of potassium sulfate is almost unavailable. Southern tobacco bidding will begin one after another. Three tendering plans have been announced. Fujian tobacco bidding is 33.553 million tons of potassium sulfate, Liangshan Golden Leaf bidding is 14.5 million tons of potassium sulfate, Sichuan Golden Leaf bidding is 11,000 tons of Mannheim potassium sulfate. The total bidding volume reaches 59,000 tons of potassium sulfate. The total amount of potassium sulfate has increased compared with last year, or will form a favorable support for the potassium sulfate market. The price of Mannheim potassium sulfate is basically stable. The mainstream factory price of 50% of the powder is 2800-3100 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 52% of the powder is 3000-3200 yuan/ton. The price in South China is relatively high. The arrival price of 52% Luo Potassium powder is 2680-2700 yuan/ton, and the water and salt 50 powder Market in Northwest China is 2550-2600 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts at the business association believe that the market of potassium sulfate will stabilize mainly in the short term.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of sodium pyrosulfite in China was slightly weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1900 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1883.33 yuan/ton, down 0.88%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the overall performance of the sodium pyrosulfite market remains unchanged. The main market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is between 1800 and 2000 yuan/ton, and most of the prices are around 1900 yuan/ton. Traditional off-season makes domestic pyrosulfite inventory relatively abundant. Enterprises continue to focus on fulfilling the orders of old customers. The market turnover atmosphere is general, and the overall market continues to maintain fast-moving and fast-moving market. This week, some domestic manufacturers again slightly reduced their ex-factory prices, which led to a slight decline in domestic market prices of sodium pyrosulfite again this week. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry chain: This week, domestic prices of sulphur and soda are relatively stable. Upstream raw material prices continue to operate at the bottom. Under the pressure of cost, the market price of sodium pyrosulfite is warming and pressurized.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that low raw material costs are suppressed, downstream demand remains weak, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is expected to continue to operate slightly weaker in the short term.

On June 20, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cycle peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 20th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

In recent years, domestic nitric acid price trend has been temporarily stable, up to 20 days, the market price is 1760 yuan/ton. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has slightly declined. As of 20 days, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region has been maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 290-3000 yuan/ton. The declining price trend of cruise raw materials has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

On June 20, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 20th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily. Since the new plant was put into operation, the domestic market for p-xylene was normally supplied. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 19, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 7 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 788-791 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 807-809 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable.

On June 19, WTI crude oil in July fell to 53.76 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.14 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil in August fell to 61.82 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.32 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which lost some cost support for downstream petrochemical products prices, and the price trend of paraxylene market was temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has risen slightly on the 20th day. The average price in East China is raised near 5800-5950 yuan/ton. As of the 19th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 88.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 88.5%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks, and the price of PX market is expected to be low in the later period.