1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method for producing pyrite type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market has been operating steadily this week, with an average market price of 13900 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market has been operating steadily. At present, titanium dioxide companies still face significant cost pressure, but demand from end-users is poor, and market shipments are relatively average. Market stability is the main focus before the holiday, and the atmosphere in the market is relatively stagnant, so it is advisable to wait and see. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 13200-14300 yuan/ton; The price of Ruiti type is around 12200-12800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
3、 Future forecast
The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market is currently stable this week. The cost of titanium dioxide enterprises is under pressure, and their quotations are firm, but downstream wait-and-see sentiment is evident, with a focus on essential needs. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will remain strong in the short term, with actual transaction prices subject to negotiation.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the 6th, copper prices were reported at 100035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 31.01%.
In the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 6 and risen by 6, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 180575 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 3.4% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, ADP employment in the United States only increased by 22000 in January, and market expectations of a Fed interest rate cut cooled. The US dollar index rebounded nearly 98%, suppressing copper prices denominated in US dollars.
On the supply side, factors such as declining production capacity of old mines, long development cycles of new mines (average 7-10 years), and rising ESG costs will limit the growth of copper mine production. The global supply and demand gap for copper concentrate may widen to 500000 tons by 2025, supporting the upward shift of the copper price center.
On the demand side: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic copper processing enterprises are gradually entering a shutdown and holiday period, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as wire and cable, copper pipes, and copper strips continue to decline. This week, the operating rate of domestic copper rod enterprises has dropped to 58%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the peak in January. Although some companies have engaged in “pre holiday stocking” behavior, the recent decline in copper prices (down more than 5% from the January high) has not significantly stimulated procurement demand.
In summary, from a long-term perspective, copper prices still have a solid foundation for upward movement. In terms of overseas mines, it is common for old mines to close and new mines to be delayed in production, resulting in tight supply of copper concentrate and extremely low processing fees, which fully indicates the relative scarcity of copper resources. At the same time, the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the rise of artificial intelligence have led to a sustained increase in demand for copper consumption. Therefore, the current correction in copper prices can be seen as a brief pause after a surge, and it is expected to show a fluctuating trend at high levels in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the latest benchmark price data from Business Society, sulfur prices have experienced a clear downward adjustment this week:
On February 1st, the price was relatively high at 4210.00 yuan/ton.
February 5th: The benchmark price has dropped to 4053.33 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of the month, it decreased by 3.72%, and on February 5th alone, it dropped by 0.82%.
This price correction is mainly the result of the combined action of two short-term market behaviors:
On December 2nd, the main producer Shandong Dongming Petrochemical lowered its sulfur ex factory quotation by 200 yuan/ton at once. This magnitude of price adjustment directly affects market confidence and increases bearish sentiment.
As the Spring Festival approaches, the pre holiday stocking of downstream factories has basically ended. At the same time, facing historically high prices, buyers have generally turned to wait-and-see and adopted an “on-demand procurement” strategy, resulting in a lack of sustained buying support in the market.
2、 Market situation
Although prices have declined this week, it needs to be viewed in a larger context, as this decline occurred after a sustained surge in the previous month. In January, sulfur prices rose overall, with a significant monthly increase. At present, the price of around 4053 yuan/ton is still in the “one-year high” range according to the statistics of Business Society. This reflects that the fundamental support of the market is still solid.
3、 Future prospects:
Overall, the fundamental factors supporting the long-term high sulfur prices, such as global supply shortages and new demand from the new energy sector, have not changed. Therefore, this week’s downturn is more likely to be a short-term technical correction rather than a reversal of the trend.
It is expected that the market will enter a “high-level oscillation” stage before and after the Spring Festival. The next direction of prices will mainly depend on the intensity of downstream factories’ demand for resuming work and replenishing inventory after the Spring Festival, as well as the production progress of important Indonesian nickel wet smelting projects.

1、 Recent market price changes

Spot benchmark price: As of February 4, 2026, the domestic spot price for melamine is 5712.5 yuan/ton. Daily increase: 37.5 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.66%.
Recent cumulative increase: Since January 28th, the price has started at 5637.5 yuan/ton, stabilized after two price increases on January 29th and 30th, and rose again on February 3rd. In the past week, the cumulative increase has been 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33%.
From an upstream and downstream perspective, this round of ‘stabilizing small and medium growth’ is the result of short-term demand encountering long-term surplus, with a weak foundation.
Upstream (cost): weak support. The price of the main raw material urea is weak, and there is no upward trend in production costs. On February 4th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1777.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% compared to the beginning of this month (1782.50 yuan/ton).
Midstream (production): high pressure. The serious overcapacity in the industry is the fundamental problem, and any price increase may be suppressed by sufficient supply.
Downstream (demand): Short term driving force. Mainly supported by seasonal stocking in the sheet metal industry after the Spring Festival, but this demand is temporary.
Simply put, downstream stocking provides a “window” for price increases, but the two mountains of upstream costs and midstream production capacity determine limited and unsustainable room for price increases. The key to the market situation depends on whether the demand drops after the subsequent stocking is completed, and whether the production capacity is substantially cleared.
3、 Comprehensive market analysis
In summary, the price of melamine has achieved a slight increase amidst fluctuations, reflecting certain market support. Manufacturers in different regions make flexible adjustments based on their own inventory, orders, and regional supply and demand, with prices fluctuating, indicating that the market is not a one-sided trend. This small increase is a short-term fluctuation. From the perspective of industry background, the melamine market has long faced the fundamental situation of continuous capacity expansion and overall oversupply, which limits the space for significant price increases.
Overall, the current market has experienced short-term regional and small price rebounds in the context of long-term loose supply.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, as of January 31, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 is 9650 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (the market price for silicon metal # 441 is 9620 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%.

Supply continues to tighten in January, and the metal silicon market remains stable with a narrow upward adjustment
In mid to early January (January 1st to January 25th), the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 remained stable at 9620 yuan/ton, and the silicon metal market was in a weak supply-demand balance, with prices remaining stable and the overall market showing no significant fluctuations. Approaching the end of the month (January 26 to January 31), driven by expectations of supply contraction and other factors, prices have slightly increased. In some regions, the market price of metal silicon # 441 has narrowly increased by about 50 yuan/ton, and the overall domestic price has risen to 9650 yuan/ton. The overall market trend shows a calm beginning of the month and a slight upward trend at the end of the month.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Supply side: The operating rate in the southwestern production areas (Sichuan, Yunnan) remains low, with most manufacturers shutting down their furnaces and production, resulting in a contraction in supply. Some enterprises in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places have carried out early maintenance or reduced production due to losses, further tightening market supply and supporting market prices.
In terms of demand, downstream industries such as polysilicon and organosilicon have shown relatively weak demand, with low purchasing willingness, which has suppressed the upward space for prices. The game between low demand season and supply contraction resulted in stable prices in the early stage and a slight increase at the end of the month.
Market analysis in the future
In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, logistics will gradually shut down, and there will be limited changes in the market situation of metal silicon, mainly manifested as stable and narrow adjustments in operation. In the long run, after the holiday, the market needs to pay more attention to the actual implementation of upstream production reduction plans. If the supply contraction exceeds expectations, prices can tend to strengthen after the holiday. We also need to pay attention to the improvement signals of downstream demand, especially factors such as changes in operating rates in the polysilicon and organosilicon industries.

1. Trend Analysis

According to data monitored by Business Society, copper prices experienced significant fluctuations in January. At the beginning of the month, the price was 99,180 yuan per ton, while by the end of the month, it rose to 104,496.67 yuan per ton, marking an overall increase of 5.36% and a year-on-year rise of 34.05%.
According to the spot-futures chart from Business Society, copper futures prices in October initially exceeded spot prices, with the main contract reflecting an expected price two months ahead, indicating a relatively weaker outlook for copper prices in the future.
According to LME inventory data, LME copper stockpiles showed a slight decline in January. By the end of the month, LME copper inventory stood at 174,975 tons, up 22.75% from the beginning of the month.
Macro perspective: In January, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with the market still expecting two rate cuts in 2026, potentially delayed until the second quarter. The U.S. dollar index fell below 96, hitting a four-year low, which supported commodity prices priced in dollars. The reduced cost of purchasing non-dollar currencies boosted demand.
Supply Side: Global copper mine production growth is only 0.9%, with frequent incidents such as the Mantoverde strike in Chile and the Grasberg landslide in Indonesia. ICSG forecasts a 80-100 million ton shortfall by 2025. China’s copper concentrate import dependency exceeds 90%, with long-term contracts (TC) dropping to $0/ton. Policy-driven dual safeguards of “overseas cooperation + recycled recycling” aim to achieve 28% recycled copper by 2028. Refineries face production cuts due to low processing fees, with domestic refined copper output reaching 1.326 million tons in December (up 9.1% YoY), but social inventories accumulated to 225,900 tons. COMEX inventories exceeded 550,000 short tons, indicating the U.S. siphoning effect.
Downstream sector: New energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 19 million units (a 15.2% year-on-year increase), with an average copper consumption of 83 kg per vehicle. The accelerated construction of ultra-high voltage power grids and AI-driven demand will add over 1 million tons. However, elevated copper prices have dampened downstream procurement, with domestic electrolytic copper social inventory rising to 327,500 tons in January. Spot premiums have turned into discounts, reflecting weak market sentiment. The post-February holiday season effect is evident, with processing enterprises gradually going on leave and weakening raw material procurement demand.
According to the annual price comparison chart, over the past five years, copper prices have risen more often than fallen in February.
In summary, copper prices demonstrate resilience amid macroeconomic bullish and bearish dynamics. Short-term vigilance is warranted against high-level pullbacks, while medium-to-long-term factors—namely demand from new energy sectors, low interest rates, and geopolitical risk premiums—support a higher price equilibrium. Copper prices are expected to primarily fluctuate within a wide range in February.

This week (1.26-1.30), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region rose, with an average market price of 16350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16750 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.45%.
Since the beginning of this week, the prices of related products have continued to show an upward trend due to factors such as changes in market supply and demand and cost push. From a regional perspective, the market performance in Shaanxi region is relatively unique. Some companies choose not to provide external quotations due to their own sales strategies, while others have raised their quotations to 17000 yuan/ton. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, many enterprises in Shaanxi region have explicitly stated that they will suspend shipments before the Spring Festival based on holiday arrangements and inventory management factors.
supply side

Shaanxi and other major domestic magnesium production areas maintain stable output, and the overall supply capacity has not shown significant fluctuations. At the same time, as the Spring Festival approaches, the inventory of magnesium ingots that can be circulated in the market continues to decline, leading to a tightening of supply in the circulation process. In this context, magnesium smelting enterprises generally adopt a stable price strategy based on cost support and changes in supply and demand patterns, maintaining a strong external quotation trend, and the market price system shows strong resistance to decline.
Demand side:
Given that the meteorological department predicts that there will be continuous snowfall in the magnesium producing areas in the future, and the traditional peak consumption season of Spring Festival is approaching, downstream industries have gradually launched pre holiday stocking plans based on considerations of logistics disruptions and rigid consumption demand during the holiday period that may be caused by weather factors. With the advancement of the stocking cycle, the market procurement activity has significantly increased, and the trading willingness of both supply and demand sides continues to strengthen, driving the overall transaction situation to show a steady recovery trend.
Cost side:
Recently, due to multiple factors such as changes in market supply and demand, as well as fluctuations in international energy prices, coal prices have continued to rise. This change directly leads to a significant increase in production costs for industries that rely mainly on coal as their energy or raw material. At the same time, the market prices of key raw materials such as blue charcoal, ferrosilicon, and dolomite remained relatively stable and did not adjust significantly with fluctuations in coal prices, thus forming a relatively solid support in the cost structure and effectively buffering some of the cost pressures caused by the rise in coal prices.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, magnesium prices have shown significant fluctuations, but the overall trend is positive. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stockpiling orders are gradually being released. At the same time, the long-term demand for downstream magnesium alloy applications is also accelerating. Based on this, it is expected that the market will continue to develop steadily and positively before the Spring Festival.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in January 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market first fell and then rose, fluctuating upwards. On January 1st, the average price was 162000 yuan/ton, and on January 28th, the average price was 163000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 0.62%.
Supply side: Strengthening the support of mineral resources, industry production is restricted
The tight supply pattern of antimony ore continues, providing bottom support for the price of antimony ingots. According to customs data, the import volume of antimony ore and concentrate in China reached 4775.96 tons in December 2025, continuing to rise from 3637.04 tons in November and returning to over 4000 tons. However, the total import volume for the year is still insufficient, and the overall supply of domestic mineral resources is tight.
The scarcity of global antimony resources is prominent, and the rigid contraction of the supply side is evident. The core mines in Hunan and Guangxi, the main production areas in China, have a long mining history, and the ore grade continues to decline. The cost of beneficiation has increased by more than 50% compared to five years ago, directly pushing up the cost of raw material procurement. Antimony has been included in the list of scarce mineral protection, and some backward production capacity has been cleared through environmental remediation. The industry’s operating rate has been restricted, further tightening the supply elasticity. In terms of overseas production, major producing countries such as Russia and Bolivia have experienced capacity contraction, with slow production of new capacity. The global antimony supply gap continues to widen, and import supply channels are difficult to effectively alleviate domestic tensions.

Demand side: Emerging fields are making efforts, traditional demand is steadily increasing
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: Affected by weak demand, cost linkage, and market sentiment, the domestic antimony oxide market showed a fluctuating downward trend and a stabilizing bottom pattern in January. Affected by the overseas Christmas holiday, the export growth this month fell short of expectations, resulting in insufficient boost to domestic demand. Although the supply side is supported by the cost of concentrate, as the end of the year approaches, traders are actively lowering prices and shipping to recoup funds, exacerbating the pressure on the spot market. Until the end of the year, due to the combined effects of factory closures, traders’ reluctance to sell, and market liquidity contraction, the downward space for prices narrowed, the market stopped falling, and entered a consolidation trend.
Photovoltaics: The demand side is structurally differentiated, with strong support from core consumer sectors but short-term disruptions. Photovoltaic glass, as a key consumer scenario for antimony ingots, operates smoothly in the industry as a whole, with stable daily melting volume and supply and demand patterns, and a slight decline in inventory; There are no new production line changes on the supply side, and the production and supply are stable. The demand side has slightly improved due to the expected adjustment of export policies, and some enterprises have experienced a decline in inventory, but the overall destocking process has been hindered. This is mainly due to the adverse weather in some areas of China affecting logistics transportation, and the slow pace of downstream export competition, resulting in actual consumption of photovoltaic glass not meeting expectations. In the long run, the demand for emerging fields such as sodium batteries and AI servers continues to be released, injecting new impetus into the demand for antimony ingots; In the traditional field, flame retardant materials benefit from the steady growth of global fire safety standard upgrading demand, coupled with the improvement of antimony oxide market atmosphere driving the demand for antimony ingots, as well as the gradual recovery of overseas demand and the growth of global strategic reserve demand, which together constitute the core support for antimony ingot demand.

Outlook for the future: In January, the antimony ingot market experienced a volatile upward trend in the supply-demand game, with the supply side constrained by the shortage of antimony ore resources and low industry operating rates, coupled with continued strengthening of policy control; The emerging fields on the demand side and the stable growth of traditional fields form a synergy, providing strong support for the market. In the short term, the peak stocking season before the Spring Festival is approaching, and downstream enterprises are likely to increase their stocking efforts to lock in costs. Coupled with the current low market inventory and the reluctance of holders to sell at high prices, the antimony ingot market price is expected to receive further support and is likely to maintain a narrow range dynamic trend.

Recently, the melamine market as a whole has shown a narrow upward trend. As of January 27th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5637.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to last week (5625.50 yuan/ton).

The recent slight increase in prices is mainly supported by the following factors:
Rigid cost support: The price of urea, the main raw material, remained high in January, significantly reducing the profit margin of production enterprises and enhancing their willingness to raise prices. As of January 28th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1747.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.30% compared to the beginning of this month (1725.00 yuan/ton).
Tightening supply: In January, many domestic production enterprises arranged for equipment shutdown and maintenance or reduced load operation, resulting in a decrease in the overall operating rate of the industry and a tightening of market spot supply.
Urgent procurement and export support: Domestic downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings generally adopt an on-demand procurement strategy. At the same time, export demand remains at a healthy level, playing a stabilizing role in the domestic market.
Short term market outlook
At present, there are mixed long and short factors in the market, and it is expected that prices will maintain a high volatility pattern before the Spring Festival. The high cost support and relatively tight supply constitute the fundamental support for market prices. Whether downstream industries will start centralized stocking before the Spring Festival is the key to breaking the current market balance and driving price increases. If the equipment that is shut down for maintenance after the holiday is concentrated and quickly resumed production, it may increase the supply pressure.
In summary, the melamine market has shown a slight increase recently, driven by cost pressures and supply tightening. Whether the future price can further rise requires close attention to the downstream stocking situation before the Spring Festival.

Aluminum prices rose by 7.97% in January

Aluminum prices remained strong in January and have recently experienced a slight decline. As of January 28, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 24265 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.97% from the market average price of 22473.33 yuan/ton on January 1; Compared to the high point of the month (1.14), the market average price is 24673.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65%
In January 2026, aluminum prices continued the strong momentum of 2025, with a strong upward trend in early January, repeatedly reaching new highs. The core of this trend is due to three main factors: rigid supply constraints, structural growth in demand, and resonance between macro and financial factors, coupled with low inventory and rising costs, forming a pattern of “easy rise but difficult fall”. However, when aluminum prices reach a new high, it is not advisable to blindly chase after them. The core lies in the accumulation of inventory during the off-season, downstream negative feedback, macroeconomic policy variables, supply elasticity, and capital profit taking, which add multiple pressures. The vulnerability of high prices increases, and the risk of a pullback is significantly greater than chasing high returns. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. Fundamentals: Accumulated inventory during the off-season+weak downstream delivery, exacerbating negative feedback
Before the Spring Festival, downstream processing enterprises gradually took a break, and the traditional off-season of consumption combined with high prices suppressed purchasing intentions. Aluminum ingot warehouses continued to accumulate, with domestic warehouses of about 796000 tons as of January 28, nearly 800000 tons compared to last week’s cumulative warehouses of 28000 tons, higher than the same period last year. Spot futures contracts were discounted and widened, highlighting downstream wait-and-see sentiment.
Aluminum rod processing fees have turned negative, small and medium-sized processing plants have reduced production/stopped production, terminal demand transmission is not smooth, real estate is weak, automobile orders are overdrawn, traditional demand is difficult to sustain high prices, and only emerging demand such as new energy is difficult to support alone.
2. Supply side: Potential increase and expected resumption of production, gap or narrowing
The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, but if Indonesia’s new production capacity lands faster than expected and European electricity prices fall, it will drive some aluminum plants to resume production, increase global supply, and narrow the supply-demand gap.
The marginal adjustment of environmental policies and the easing of overseas geopolitical tensions may release idle production capacity. The tight supply is not absolutely rigid, and high prices may stimulate companies to accelerate their resumption/expansion plans.
3. Macro: Policy shift and economic recovery uncertainty, suppressing metal prices
If the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut is delayed or not as strong as expected, the strengthening of the US dollar will directly suppress industrial metal prices, and the slowing pace of global economic recovery will drag down aluminum demand in the manufacturing industry.
The weak recovery of the domestic economy and the slower than expected stabilization of the real estate market make it difficult to implement incremental policies to support the sustained rise in aluminum prices. If macroeconomic sentiment cools down, capital outflows will trigger a temporary decline in spot prices.
4. Funds and Emotions: High level profit taking and increased volatility risk
After the aluminum price hit a new high, the willingness of speculative funds to profit and leave the market has increased, and market sentiment is easily affected by the linkage of sector trends.
5. Cost and Valuation: Price deviates from fundamentals, with a pullback resulting in higher cost-effectiveness
The cost of electrolytic aluminum, including taxes, is about 16200 yuan/ton. Although there is cost support, the current price has deviated significantly from the cost, and there is more room for high-level adjustment than upward adjustment. The demand for hedging by aluminum ingot manufacturers has increased.
Although global explicit inventory is low, structural shortages are difficult to support unlimited price increases. If inventory accumulates beyond expectations, it will break the pattern of “easy to rise but difficult to fall”.

In summary, behind the high aluminum prices is a game of “strong supply expectations” and “weak demand reality”. Short term accumulation, downstream negative feedback, macroeconomic variables and other factors all point to the risk of a pullback, and the cost-effectiveness of chasing high and hoarding is extremely low.