In the first half of January, the domestic epoxy propane market continued its strong momentum, with prices significantly rising. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8333.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.76% compared to January 1st. The price increase this time is the result of multiple favorable factors resonating, and the market is expected to maintain a strong operation in the short term.

Supply side: The unexpected tightening of the market supply side is the basis for this price increase. Firstly, the main production facilities in many places have experienced load reduction or shutdown. The load of multiple units in the main production areas of Shandong has decreased, while key units in East China such as Zhenhai Phase II and Sinochem Quanzhou are also in a state of shutdown and maintenance. This resulted in a relatively low national capacity utilization rate of 73.47% on that day. Secondly, industry inventory has dropped below the “safety cushion”. As of January 9th, the overall inventory of the industry is about 40000 tons, far below the safety warning line. Factory inventory is generally low, and spot supply remains tight. The sudden tightening of the supply and demand pattern has directly enhanced the willingness of producers to raise prices.
Demand side: The hot demand side is the core engine driving price increases. On the one hand, the downstream polyether industry is experiencing expansion in production. For example, new facilities such as Shandong Longhua and Guangxi Tongkun have been put into operation, directly increasing the rigid consumption of epichlorohydrin. On the other hand, the “last train” effect of a key policy has become prominent. According to the announcement of the Ministry of Finance, the export tax rebate policy for primary shape polyether will be cancelled from April 1, 2026. In order to complete orders before the policy window closes, there has been an “early surge” in downstream foreign trade demand, with a large number of export orders being placed in the first quarter for centralized production. At the same time, domestic trade customers also proactively replenish their inventory due to concerns about the subsequent increase in raw material prices. The resonance of internal and external demand has made the market trading atmosphere active, effectively digesting high priced sources of goods.
On the raw material side: The upward trend in the market price of raw material propylene has also contributed to the upward trend, providing stable cost support. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 5921.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.56% compared to the beginning of this month (5717.67 yuan/ton).
Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that under the clear expectation of “tight supply and demand”, the market’s bullish sentiment will quickly heat up. Downstream enterprises have shifted from wait-and-see to actively replenishing inventory to cope with potential price increases and tight supply in the future. At the same time, the price of propylene, the main upstream raw material, also showed a stable and slightly rising trend in mid January, providing relatively stable cost support for epoxy propane. Overall, under the combined effects of low inventory, pre demand, and tight supply, it is expected that the price center of epoxy propane will continue to rise in the short term. The future market trend requires close attention to the restart progress of large-scale facilities such as Sinochem Quanzhou, as well as the actual sustainability of the “rush to export” of polyether.

This week, the market price of melamine has loosened and has not shown a comprehensive “firm operation” characteristic. The overall market is under the expectation of oversupply, with prices supported by costs but weak demand. As of January 13th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5625.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (5637.50 yuan/ton).

Supply side:
The current situation on the supply side is more inclined towards “expected easing” and “actual pressure”. In the absence of strong demand, even if the operating rate is not high, it may still create de facto supply pressure due to poor shipments. This explains why the market has not experienced a “firm operation” driven by tight supply, but instead some companies have lowered prices.
Demand side:
The downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have not shown signs of improvement, and the demand side has always been a weak link in the market. In the absence of strong demand, the market is difficult to achieve true ‘resilience’.
Cost side:
As of January 13th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1745.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.16% compared to the beginning of this month (1725.00 yuan/ton). In 2026, the urea industry is in a period of capacity expansion, with significant supply pressure. It is expected that the price center of gravity will further shift downwards throughout the year. This weakens the most important cost support for melamine in the future.
Overall, the current melamine market presents a situation of “weak reality and weak expectations” coexisting:
Weak reality: In early January, two major manufacturers lowered their ex factory quotations by 50 yuan/ton, directly falsifying the “firm operation” of general inflation. At the same time, many mainstream enterprises maintain a stable or wait-and-see attitude.
Weak Expectations: The market’s forecast for the entire year of 2026 is that supply will be loose and cost support will weaken, which will restrain the upward space of prices.
Therefore, the so-called ‘strength’ is more likely to be reflected in the absence of a panic like sharp drop in prices in the short term, gaining support and oscillating near the cost line, but this is a weak balance lacking upward momentum.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market has been rising since January. On January 12th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 552 points, up 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 45.18% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 103.69% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all shown an upward trend. As of the 13th, the price of neodymium oxide was 667500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.53% since January; The price of neodymium metal is 805000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.23%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 637500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.59%; The price of praseodymium metal is 797500 yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 4.25%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 785000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.44%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 647500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.15%.
Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, and there is a strong bullish sentiment in the domestic light rare earth market raw materials. Macro news has flowed out, and the supply and demand pattern of praseodymium neodymium products has tightened, exacerbating market bullish expectations and causing the light rare earth market prices to rise. The booming development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances has driven an increase in orders from downstream magnetic material factories. However, the demand from magnetic material enterprises is not sufficient to support such high metal prices, resulting in poor actual transaction performance.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is not good, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. The supply-demand imbalance of praseodymium neodymium series products is evident; In addition, the long-term trend of increasing demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other end products remains unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets in the end market is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream games, the light rare earth market will maintain a high oscillation state.

On January 12th, the average market price in East China was 370130 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.58% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 368000-372000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 370000 yuan/ton, an increase of 19570 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

In the morning session, Shanghai tin futures showed a fluctuating upward trend, hitting the daily limit up in one fell swoop. The near and far month basis spread discount situation has significantly improved and the magnitude has narrowed significantly; After entering the second trading session, its price continued to rise, and the final main contract was closed at the limit up, with an increase of 8%, to 376920 yuan/ton.
Recently, the geopolitical situation has remained tense, causing deep concerns in the global capital market about the stability of resource supply. In this context, countries have accelerated their hoarding of strategic goods, thereby driving up the geopolitical risk premium of non-ferrous metals. The supply of tin resources is highly concentrated, and the supply from Myanmar has not yet returned to normal levels. The overall supply of tin ore remains tight. Boosted by positive macro sentiment, tin prices have shown a strong and sharp trend.
The spot market, stimulated by macro factors again, has further expanded its price increase. In the current short-term market, cautious sentiment continues to spread. Given the current weak performance of downstream consumption, even if prices continue to rise, the actual capacity of users to absorb them is relatively limited. Based on this, it is expected that the market situation will remain relatively weak in the short term, and continuous attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in inventory in the future.
In terms of follow-up, it is heard that small brands have a price range of around 400 yuan/ton for a flat price to a premium in February, while cloud fonts have a price range of around 700 yuan/ton for a premium in February, and cloud tin has a price range of around 1000 yuan/ton for a premium in February.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the 10th, copper prices were reported at 100515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 34.35%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 5 and risen by 7, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 141075 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 1.03% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically speaking, at the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched a crackdown on Venezuela and seized resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland, leading to an increase in risk aversion. The US dollar seized the opportunity to rebound, oil prices fell, stock markets fluctuated, precious metals such as gold and silver retreated, and copper prices fell under pressure.
Supply side: Supply side disturbances continue. The existing mines operate at full or overloaded capacity for a long time, resulting in frequent production interruptions. At the beginning of 2026, negotiations at the Mantovade mine in Chile broke down, and strikes may continue, exacerbating concerns about supply shortages. Domestic copper concentrate spot processing fees continue to be negative, highlighting the fact of tight mines. In addition, the siphon effect caused by the US copper tariffs has led to a tightening of spot supply in non US regions, resulting in a continuous decline in copper inventories on the London Stock Exchange.
On the demand side, the rapid development of new energy fields such as artificial intelligence, robots, photovoltaic installations, and solid-state batteries has brought vast consumption space to the copper market, resulting in copper prices stabilizing at historical highs. However, the weak reality pattern in China has become prominent, and the high copper prices have led to the spread of downstream fear of heights, resulting in a stalemate in market trading at the end of the year. After the copper price hit a new high, the activity of domestic spot procurement cooled down, and downstream enterprises delivered on long orders, dragging down the rise in copper prices due to short-term demand. Under the seasonal off-season and year-end effects, downstream purchases are made on demand, and high priced goods are not sought after. Weak reality suppression is evident, and market buying enthusiasm may be difficult to materialize.
Message surface:
The Trump administration and congressional Republicans are pushing for legislation to overturn the mining ban in northern Minnesota to help Twin Metals develop North America’s largest critical mineral reserve. The bill will also prohibit the President from imposing similar restrictions in the future. This move will directly drive the copper cobalt nickel project of Twin Metals, a subsidiary of Antofagasta in Chile. The region has the largest undeveloped key mineral reserves in North America, with nickel reserves of approximately 4.6 million tons and copper reserves exceeding 2 million tons.
In summary, under the pressure of weak reality in China and profit taking by bulls, copper prices have experienced short-term high adjustments. In addition, the 20-year environmental ban or repeal in the United States, the largest undeveloped key mineral reserve in North America, with nickel reserves of about 4.6 million tons and copper reserves exceeding 2 million tons, has caused a shock to the copper and nickel markets, leading to a sharp decline in prices. The market sentiment is currently quite volatile, and it is expected that copper prices will mainly adjust at a high level in the short term.

Market Trend Review

This week, the sulfur market continued its previous upward trend and showed a general upward trend. As of January 8th, the benchmark price of sulfur in Shengyi Society was 3860.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.44% compared to the beginning of this month (3661.00 yuan/ton). Shandong region has performed particularly well and has become the leader of this round of upward trend. Among them, Shandong Lihua Yi Group raised its price by 300 yuan/ton in a single day, with an increase of 8.1%, and the quoted price reached 4000 yuan/ton, greatly boosting market sentiment. In addition to Lihua Yi, major production enterprises such as Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Shandong Dongming Petrochemical have also raised their prices, with increases ranging from 50 to 170 yuan/ton. The regions of East China, North China, South China, Northeast and Northwest have all shown a synchronous upward trend, and the domestic sulfur benchmark price center has significantly moved up compared to last week.
Driving factor analysis
The strong rise in the market this time is mainly driven by the resonance of supply and demand fundamentals:
1. Continuous tightening on the supply side:
In the international market, factors such as maintenance of some facilities in the Middle East and restrictions on exports from Russia have led to a reduction in global sulfur circulation resources. The contract prices of major exporting countries in January increased by about 22-25 US dollars/ton month on month, which pushed up the landed cost of imported sulfur in China. The converted RMB price has generally been above 4300 yuan/ton, forming an important cost support. Domestically, major production enterprises have started operating steadily, but there has been no significant increase in production capacity. The port inventory (taking solid sulfur as an example) remains relatively low at around 1.9 million tons, and has recently shown a slight trend of destocking, with tight supply of spot resources in the market.
2. Downstream demand enters peak season:
The demand for fertilizers has started: it is currently a critical period for “spring fertilizer and winter storage” in China. In order to ensure spring agricultural production, major agricultural producing areas such as Northeast China have taken the lead in initiating the procurement of raw materials for phosphate fertilizers. Sulfur, as an indispensable core raw material for the production of phosphate fertilizers (such as monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate), has significantly increased in demand, forming the most direct and strongest driving force for price increases.
Stable demand in emerging fields: In addition to the traditional fertilizer industry, the demand for sulfur in the new energy industry also provides sustained support.
Specifically, let’s take a look:
Lithium iron phosphate cathode material: As an important cathode material for power batteries and energy storage batteries, the production of its precursor iron phosphate requires the consumption of sulfuric acid (made from sulfur). With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage industries, the indirect demand for sulfur in this field is steadily increasing.
The stocking demand in traditional fields such as chemical engineering before the Spring Festival also provides certain support to the market.
Regional market characteristics
Shandong: As a concentrated refining and important consumption area, the supply-demand game is fierce, and price changes are the most sensitive, leading the national upward trend. Solid and liquid sulfur prices are both at high levels nationwide.
East and South China: Due to high import costs and changes in port inventory, prices have shown a steady upward trend. Especially the spot prices at ports are influenced by both international and domestic demand.
North China and Northeast China: mainly following the linkage of major production areas, while the Northeast region directly benefits from the launch of spring storage demand, with strong price support.
Northwest and other regions: Prices are relatively lagging behind, but they are also rising synchronously under demand transmission and cost push.

outlook for the future market
Overall, favorable factors dominate the sulfur market in the short term. The tight supply situation is difficult to quickly ease, and international high prices will continue to be transmitted domestically. At the same time, the demand for spring plowing and fertilizer preparation season is in the release stage, and the procurement activities of downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises and traders are expected to remain active. Therefore, it is expected that the overall sulfur price will maintain a strong oscillation trend.
However, the market also needs to pay attention to potential risks. On the one hand, we need to be vigilant about the potential suppression of downstream acceptance capacity caused by rapidly rising prices; On the other hand, it is necessary to closely monitor whether the relevant policy guidance of the country on “stabilizing prices and ensuring supply” of spring plowing fertilizers will introduce specific measures to stabilize excessive fluctuations in raw material prices. Overall, under the fundamental of tight supply-demand balance, the sulfur market will still be prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

Asphalt prices increased significantly after New Year’s Day. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region before the holiday was 2940 yuan/ton, and on the 6th, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3130-3140 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.7%. The core driving force behind this round of price increases is the US Venezuela relationship, as the export of Venezuela’s Mari crude oil, which is highly dependent on domestic refined asphalt raw materials, is hindered, leading to pressure on refinery raw materials and supply contraction.

In mid December 2025, the United States upgraded its relations with Venezuela, which hindered the export of crude oil from Mali and made it difficult to recover in the short term. In terms of production capacity, the total domestic asphalt production capacity is 71.4 million tons, with local refining accounting for 59% (41.85 million tons), making it the main supplier. In 2025, China imported 22.47 million tons of Mari crude oil and diluted asphalt, while the production of locally refined asphalt was 15.558 million tons during the same period. Mari’s supply directly determines the release of local refining capacity.
On the supply side, the inventory of Di Lian Ma Rui is only supported until February 2026, with a sharp decline in low-priced raw materials thereafter. Combined with the off-season demand in the first quarter, it is expected that the asphalt production in the first quarter will be 3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%. The contraction of supply is the core driving force behind this round of price increases, and the main contract for asphalt in the previous period strengthened synchronously, further confirming the expectation of supply contraction.
Data shows that Venezuela’s crude oil asphalt yield is significantly ahead. Although Marui crude oil is a high sulfur and ultra heavy variety, it has the advantages of low price, low markup, high yield, and high added value, making it the optimal choice for local refining. Other heavy crude oils have lower yields and higher procurement costs. The current premium for Mari is $13 per barrel, with a price difference of $10 per barrel (equivalent to $480 per ton) compared to Canadian Cold Lake crude oil. Mari’s supply interruption will push up refinery costs.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the tight supply of raw materials and geopolitical premiums support a strong asphalt price, but attention should be paid to event fluctuations. Focus on three major variables in the medium to long term: the trend of the United States towards Venezuela, the recovery of Venezuela’s crude oil production and exports, and the procurement of substitute raw materials by domestic refineries. In addition, OPEC+’s suspension of production in the first quarter will support the global crude oil market, indirectly affecting asphalt costs, and the subsequent situation needs to be continuously monitored.

According to the analysis of the Business Society Market Monitoring System, on January 6, 2026, the domestic market price of metallurgical silicon #441 was referenced at 9,620 yuan per ton. Compared to January 1, it remained largely stable. However, compared to December 1 (when the market price of metallurgical silicon #441 was 9,750 yuan per ton), the price decreased by 130 yuan per ton, representing a decline of 1.33%.

Weak Supply and Demand, Metal Silicon Market Maintains Weak Stability
According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as we entered 2026, the domestic metallurgical silicon spot market did not experience a significant upward trend, showing a relatively weak and consolidating market trend with little fluctuation compared to the pre-holiday period. On January 6, the market prices in East China for metallurgical silicon 441# were around 9,300-9,500 yuan/ton, while those for oxygenated 553# were approximately 9,200-9,300 yuan/ton. The #521 grade priced at around 9,300-9,500 yuan/ton, and the 421# grade was quoted at approximately 9,500-9,800 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
Supply and production: Currently, the overall sentiment in the metallurgical silicon market is weak. On the supply side, maintenance and production cuts have occurred in northern regions, leading to a decline in overall metallurgical silicon production capacity and output.
On the demand side: Currently, overall procurement in the downstream sector of metallurgical silicon remains cautious. The slight production cuts in polysilicon and organosilicon have led to a contraction in industrial silicon demand. While some buyers have restocking needs, they primarily engage in price inquiries and actual transactions remain relatively limited.
Market Outlook Analysis
Currently, the silicon metal market is experiencing weak demand and supply, with subdued trading activity. Inventory pressures in the market have not shown significant relief. Analysts from the Business Society predict that the domestic silicon metal market will likely maintain a weak trend in the short term, with prices primarily undergoing minor adjustments. Specific developments will depend on further changes in supply-demand dynamics.

The post-season market presents a pattern of “favorable supply declines, price stagnation is temporary”. The expectation of supply contraction brought about by local equipment repairs in the previous period has been largely digested by the market, while downstream demand recovers slowly, leading to insufficient market mobility, and prices enter a narrow consolidation phase.

1. Market dynamics and price performance
1. Price movement:
Post-holiday market stabilization: as of January 5, the melamine base price of the company is 5,637.50 yuan / ton, flat with the beginning of this month, relatively to the end of December 2025 level is basically flat, with a narrow adjustment of slightly ± 50 yuan / ton in some regions.
The “priceless without market” characteristic is that although the quotation remains stable, the actual transaction activity of the market is general, and the current price acceptance is limited downstream, mainly for small orders.
2. Supply:
At the end of December 2025 and during the New Year, some of the equipment undergoing maintenance (such as Shandong, Xinjiang, etc.) has gradually resumed production, and the industry’s overall start-up load rate has recovered from about 65% before the holiday to 70%-72%. With the recovery of supply, the market’s pre-season concerns about supply tensions have dissipated.
3. Cost side:
The price of the main raw material urea also showed a stable and moderate weakness after the festival, as of January 5, the business unit urea benchmark price was 1,725.00 yuan / ton, flat with the beginning of this month. The cost support role of melamine is limited.
4. Demand:
Major downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings are slow to resume work after the festival, the release of new orders is insufficient, and the procurement of melamine is more optimistic, mainly with digestive pre-festival inventory. There is no significant highlight in the international market demand, and the number of new export orders is limited, which has failed to form an effective pull on the domestic market.
Core Market Analysis
“Positive recession” is the keyword: the main factor driving the slight uptick in the market in late December 2025 – the supply-side overhaul contraction – is over. The market driver has switched from “tightening supply expectations” to “a real supply-demand game”.
The game behind “stagnation”: prices did not fall immediately after the recovery of supply, mainly because:
Producers have a strong willingness to stabilize prices: most factories have no inventory pressure, and there is a good price mentality near the cost line.
Demand has not yet been fully falsified: the market is still expecting a phased replenishment before the Spring Festival downstream, forming a bottom support expectation.
Absolute price position: the current price is in the mid-low range of nearly six months, and the space for further decline is limited.
In the short term, the market is expected to continue the “range shock under weak supply and demand balance” pattern. The choice of the next direction for prices will depend on the evolution of the following key factors:
Summary: The melamine market is currently in the transition phase of “old drives are coming back, new drives are not coming”. Market participants are advised to be cautious, not to have excessive expectations of unilateral market conditions, operating on the band band, on-demand procurement is predominant, and closely follow the actual data changes of the above focus points.

The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2025 can be summarized as “oversupply, price decline, and industry reshuffle”. The turning point of the core market from “out of stock” to “surplus”. 2025 is a new round of concentrated capacity expansion period after 2022. As of the end of the year, 1.05 million tons of new production capacity have been successfully put into operation, and the main new supply is gradually released in the second half of the year. However, downstream demand has not kept up, leading to a market downturn from a brief high at the beginning of the year and entering a stage of overall surplus.

1. Price trend: Open high and go low, continue to decline. At the beginning of 2025, due to the impact of some factory maintenance and delayed production of equipment under construction, the mentality of factories to raise prices increased, and the price once soared to a three-year high, reaching around 12000 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, downstream consumers have strong resistance to high priced raw materials, and with new production capacity being put into operation one after another, prices have started to “plummet”, initiating a sustained downward trend. By the end of the year, the mainstream market price in Shandong had dropped to around 7600 yuan/ton, halving from the high point at the beginning of the year. The annual average price of ports in East China for the whole year is about 8726 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 6.84%.
2. Supply side: The “explosion” of million ton production capacity and the adjustment of market structure in 2025 can be said to be the “big year for acrylonitrile production”, and the surge in supply is the main reason for crushing prices. The new facilities of the giants have been put into operation this year, and as of the end of the year, 1.05 million tons of new production capacity have been successfully put into operation. The domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has exceeded 5.449 million tons, with a growth rate of nearly 24%, reaching a historical high. (Some data even suggests that it may exceed 5.7 million tons.) And with the addition of four new companies, the number of domestic production enterprises has increased to 20. The industry concentration (CR5) has further declined, and market competition has shifted from “oligopoly monopoly” to “multi strong competition”.
3. Demand side: The main engine is “weak” and the upstream is working hard to produce, but the downstream’s “appetite” has decreased. Although ABS, as the largest downstream, has also seen an increase in new production capacity, weak consumer demand in household appliances and other end products, coupled with a sluggish real estate market, have resulted in low operating rates in ABS factories and limited ability to digest acrylonitrile. The traditional acrylic fiber field is under pressure due to the decrease in overseas orders. Although the demand for carbon fiber as an emerging field is growing rapidly (with an expected annual growth rate of 8% -12%), it is still unable to fill the gap left by ABS in the huge overall market. The latest data shows that the apparent consumption of acrylonitrile in November decreased by 4.05% month on month, indicating that demand is further weakening.
Outlook for Acrylonitrile Market in 2026
2026 is likely to be a continuation of the difficulties of 2025. Due to the fact that the production capacity concentrated in 2025 will be fully released by 2026, and downstream demand is difficult to grow synchronously, the market will face a more severe “supply-demand imbalance”. This will be a brutal elimination round about ‘who can survive’.

Core prediction: Prices further decline, industry enters a ‘reshuffle period’
1. Price trend: The center of gravity has shifted downwards, with low-level fluctuations. With the complete release of new production capacity, supply pressure continues to increase. Unless there is a large-scale equipment maintenance or unexpected outbreak on the demand side, it is difficult for prices to have a decent rebound. It is expected that the mainstream market price will fluctuate between 7700-9000 yuan/ton in 2026, and the annual average price may continue to decline compared to 2025.
2. Supply and demand pattern: The situation of oversupply will reach its peak in 2026, and the industry’s operating rate may further decline. The industry’s production capacity growth rate is expected to remain above 15% in 2026, with a planned construction capacity of over 1 million tons. This means that there will be more cheap acrylonitrile in the market looking for buyers. After the largest downstream ABS is put into production in 2025, the new production capacity will decrease in 2026, and the operating rate may remain low due to the macro consumption environment. Other downstream companies (such as acrylic) find it difficult to digest such a huge increase.
3. Profit expectation: The prices of propylene and liquid ammonia, the main raw materials with slight profit or loss in the entire industry, are expected to remain relatively stable compared to 2025, and are expected to fluctuate narrowly, which will not provide strong support for acrylonitrile. The theoretical profit margin of mainstream factories will continue to be compressed, and may even remain in a state of long-term losses or low profits. This will force high cost production capacity (such as some old and non integrated facilities) to “maintain value” by reducing load or shutting down.
Key variable analysis and recommendations

1. Pay attention to the “export” indicator: Since internal competition is inevitable, export volume will become the most noteworthy data in 2026. If export volume can increase significantly, it may temporarily alleviate the domestic downturn. By 2026, with the integration of coastal integrated facilities such as Zhenhai Refining and Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical, the export volume of domestic acrylonitrile to Southeast Asia, India and other places is expected to further increase, which will be an important “spillway” to balance domestic overcapacity. With the increasing demand for the automotive industry (especially oil seals, hoses) and oil resistant products, the consumption of acrylonitrile by nitrile rubber will also steadily increase.
2. Carbon fiber will be the biggest highlight, which is the most noteworthy variable in 2026 and also the most profitable and fastest-growing link in the acrylonitrile industry chain. Almost all carbon fiber raw fibers rely on acrylonitrile, and the growth of one ton of carbon fiber will directly drive the demand for one ton of acrylonitrile. With the large-scale wind turbine blades, carbon carbon composite materials for photovoltaics, and the explosive demand for hydrogen energy storage tanks, the carbon fiber industry is expected to maintain an average annual compound growth rate of over 30%. But carbon fiber has high requirements for raw material quality, usually supplied by high-end products from top manufacturers such as Sinopec and Jilin Petrochemical
3. Beware of the “cost line” game: 2026 will be a crucial year for clearing production capacity. It is necessary to closely monitor whether high cost devices within the industry (usually those non integrated, small-scale factories) experience large-scale parking or maintenance. Only when these ‘competitors’ withdraw can prices stabilize.
4. Cash flow is king: At this stage, pursuing high profits is unrealistic, survival is the top priority. It is recommended to adopt a “follow the market” sales strategy to maintain healthy cash flow and avoid the risk of price decline caused by inventory backlog.
Summary: The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2026 will be a “tough battle”. The downstream demand will be ‘large enough in total, but not divided enough’. Although carbon fiber and exports can eat up some of the newly added production capacity, facing the weakness of ABS and acrylic fibers, as well as the increasing production capacity of several million tons in the upstream, the overall bargaining power of the downstream is still strong, and the price of acrylonitrile is likely to remain fluctuating near the “cost line”, making it difficult to achieve a large profit market. Don’t expect prices to rebound significantly, be mentally prepared to “grind the bottom” near the cost line in the long run. The darkness before dawn is often the coldest, enduring it is rebirth.