According to the data of the Business News Agency, the spot market price of gold on February 2, 2023 was 424.66 yuan/g, up 0.7% per day, up 3.60% from the early average spot market price of 409.89 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (January 1); Compared with the early average spot market price of 389.84 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), the increase was 8.93%.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of silver market on February 2, 2023 was 5293.67 yuan/kg, up 2.13% per day, down 0.96 from the average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) at 5345 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), the increase was 21.18%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trend of precious metal gold and silver will converge, but in April and August, silver will fall deeper, and the recent recovery will be more obvious. In December, silver will continue the strong market of last month, and gold will start to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the price of precious metal gold will improve and silver will consolidate at a high level.

Macro fundamentals

The first rate increase by the Federal Reserve in 2023 met expectations

In 2023, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate increase at its first interest rate meeting, raising the target range of the policy interest rate, the federal funds rate, from 4.25% to 4.50% to 4.50% to 4.75%. At the subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that it would take time to tighten the financial situation after considering raising interest rates for about two more times and then suspending it. Powell remained confident in the soft landing of the US economy and believed that the US Congress would raise the debt ceiling, saying: “This is necessary”.

The first rate increase by the Federal Reserve in 2023 is basically in line with expectations, and the current rate increase by the United States is indeed coming to an end.

2. The European Central Bank has a high probability of following up the interest rate increase

In the UK, in view of the fact that the domestic inflation rate is still at the highest level in the past 40 years, the market expects the Bank of England to continue its most aggressive interest rate increase path in the past 30 years, by 50 basis points. In the euro area, President Lagarde of the European Central Bank recently made it clear that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates and fight against high inflation. It is widely expected that the European Central Bank will cut its balance sheet while raising interest rates by 50 basis points.

Supply and demand fundamentals

According to the data of the World Gold Association, the annual gold demand (excluding OTC trading) in 2022 increased by 18% to 4741 tons year-on-year, which is the highest annual total demand since 2011. In 2022, the global central bank’s annual demand for gold purchase reached 1136 tons, more than double the 450 tons of the previous year and hit a new high in 55 years. In the fourth quarter of 2022 alone, global central banks purchased 417 tons of gold, and the total amount of gold purchased in the second half of the year also exceeded 800 tons.

On the supply side, in 2022, the global total supply of gold continued a mild upward trajectory, with a year-on-year increase of 2% to 4755 tons, which remained above the pre-epidemic level. It is worth noting that the output of gold mine reached a new high in four years, increasing to 3612 tons.

Domestically, according to the latest statistics of the China Gold Association, in 2022, the domestic raw material gold output was 372.048 tons, an increase of 43.065 tons compared with the same period in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 13.09%, including 295.423 tons of gold minerals and 76.625 tons of non-ferrous by-products. In addition, the gold production of imported raw materials in 2022 will be 125.784 tons, up 9.78% year on year. If this part of the gold production of imported raw materials is added, the country will produce 497.832 tons of gold, up 12.24% year on year. In 2022, the national gold consumption was 1001.74 tons, down 10.63% from the same period in 2021. Among them: 654.32 tons of gold jewelry, down 8.01% year on year; 258.94 tons of gold bars and coins, down 17.23% year on year; Industrial and other gold consumption was 88.48 tons, down 8.55% year on year. The People’s Bank of China continuously increased its gold holdings in November and December, with a total increase of 62.21 tons. By the end of 2022, China’s gold reserves had reached 2010.53 tons.

Precious metal aftermarket

Precious metals are relatively sensitive to macro fundamental factors due to their strong monetary attributes. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 points for the first time in 2023, basically in line with market expectations. At the same time, the market’s expectation of the gradual end of the current interest rate increase cycle began to be strong. The US dollar index and the US bond interest rate both fell sharply, which also contributed to the short-term rise of precious metals. However, the signal released after the meeting that the interest rate will not be cut this year and the economy will maintain moderate growth will also have some pressure on the continued rise of precious metal prices, including the upward energy. In the short term, it is expected that the price of precious metals will be mainly stable and strong.

Glycol prices rose slightly in January

In January 2023, the price of ethylene glycol moved up. According to the data of Business News Agency, on January 30, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4375 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the beginning of the month was 4050 yuan/ton, up 8.02%.

On January 30, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in East China was 4240-4350 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in South China is 4250 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the North China market was basically stable, and the spot price of mainstream manufacturers in North China remained at 4350 yuan/ton.

Downstream polyester market is good, which is good for ethylene glycol price. The spot center of gravity of ethylene glycol has moved up, and the production of large units has been reduced and changed, which has boosted market confidence and superimposed market expectations for demand recovery. As of January 29, 2023, the overall starting load of ethylene glycol in China was 59.6%, down 4.3 percentage points on a month-on-month basis, and the coal load remained about 57%, relatively stable. The integrated device stopped unexpectedly and the device load decreased.

Overview of fundamentals

In terms of inventory, as of January 29, 2023, the inventory of the main storage area of ethylene glycol in East China was 1.0327 million tons, with seasonal accumulation.

In terms of supply, affected by the shutdown and decline of some large plants during the Spring Festival, the EG operation rate has dropped to 60%, and will be gradually restored after the festival. At present, the output of domestic stock devices is expected to continue to increase in the near future, and the total supply of EG may continue to increase.

Aftermarket forecast

In January, the price of ethylene glycol recovered, on the one hand, due to the impact of oil price driving and low valuation of itself, on the other hand, due to the reduction and conversion of large units, which boosted market confidence, the price may rebound. However, the supply and demand structure of medium and long term fundamentals is still weak, and it is expected that the volatility probability of glycol price platform will increase.

Product diagram of plasticizer industry chain

From the product diagram of the plasticizer industry chain, it can be seen that the plasticizer is close to the terminal in the plasticizer industry chain, and the downstream products are mainly terminal consumer goods. In terms of upstream raw materials, the main raw materials of the plasticizer products are phthalic anhydride, isooctanol, n-butanol and PTA, while the raw materials OX, PX and propylene of these products are the downstream products of naphtha. The upstream raw materials of plasticizer products are relatively concentrated. The cost of raw materials is the main factor affecting the trend of plasticizer products.

In terms of plasticizer products, there are a wide variety of plasticizer products. At the research stage, there are as many as 1000 types of plasticizers, 300 types of industrial production, and more than 100 types of plasticizers widely used in the market. These plasticizers are competitive products, which can be replaced or used together. The downstream uses of plasticizers are wide, mainly including PVC products, plastic films, wires and cables, medical devices, etc.

Analysis of market trend of plasticizer industry chain products in 2022

Phthalic anhydride market in 2022

In 2022, phthalic anhydride rose by 12.20% in a M-shaped shock. The average price of phthalic anhydride on October 16 was 10637.5 yuan/ton, which was the highest price in the year. The lowest price was 7175 yuan/ton on January 1, with the maximum amplitude of 48.26% in the year.

In 2022, the capacity of phthalic anhydride will be about 3.7 million tons. The main uses include plasticizer and unsaturated resin industry, with plasticizer accounting for 47% and unsaturated resin accounting for 26%. The domestic phthalic anhydride market has a serious overcapacity. In addition, naphthalene phthalic anhydride continues to increase production capacity, and orthophthalic anhydride has been suppressed to some extent. The proportion of o-phthalic anhydride in plasticizer raw materials is weakened, and the correlation between phthalic anhydride and DOP is low. The correlation coefficient between phthalic anhydride and DOP is 0.003 in 2022.

Isooctanol market in 2022

In 2022, the price of isooctanol dropped by 3.95% annually. In 2022, the lowest price point is 8066.67 yuan/ton in mid-July, and the highest price point is 14533.33 yuan/ton in early February, with the annual maximum amplitude of 44.50%.

In 2022, the production capacity of isooctanol is about 2.35 million tons, and the downstream is mainly DOP, DOTP, and octyl acrylate, accounting for 97%. The main use of isooctanol is plasticizer, and isooctanol is highly positively correlated with plasticizer. The correlation coefficient between isooctanol and DOP in 2022 is 0.960.

Market of n-butanol in 2022

In 2022, n-butanol was adjusted in a wide range, with a drop of 1.61%. The highest annual price was 11933 yuan/ton on February 9, and the lowest annual price was 6566 yuan/ton on August 29, with an annual maximum amplitude of 44.97%.

 
In 2018, the capacity expansion of the n-butanol industry slowed down. In 2021, only one 40000 ton unit was put into operation, and the domestic n-butanol operating rate was more than 90%. n-butanol was mainly used to manufacture phthalate, aliphatic dicarboxylic acid and phosphoric acid n-butyl ester plasticizers. The correlation coefficient between n-butanol and DOP is 0.878.

PTA market in 2022

In 2022, PTA prices rose by 13.16% due to M-type shocks. The highest point was 7751 yuan/ton on June 9, and the lowest point was 4963 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, with a maximum amplitude of 56.19%. From 2020 to 2022, PTA will increase its annual production capacity by 8.3 million tons; It is estimated that 14.5 million tons of new capacity will be produced in 2023. In response to the substantial increase in production capacity, PTA processing costs fell sharply. From January to November 2022, PTA’s average annual processing costs were 482 yuan/ton. Only a few enterprises made profits, and PTA enterprises were forced to repair and reduce the burden. In 2022, the production capacity increased significantly, but the actual PTA production growth in 2022 was limited.

PTA is mainly used to produce polyester fiber, polyester bottle and polyester film. In the domestic market, 75% of PTA is used to produce polyester fiber; 20% for bottle grade polyester; 5% is used for film-grade polyester, and the plasticizer in the downstream of PTA is relatively small. The correlation between PTA and DOP is low, and the correlation coefficient between PTA and DOP is 0.171.

DOP market in 2022

In 2022, the price of DOP was adjusted in a wide range, and the price of the whole year fell slightly, by 0.26%. The highest price in the year was 13400 yuan/ton on February 8, and the lowest price was 8775 yuan/ton on July 18, with a maximum amplitude of 34.51%. Good news and bad news mixed, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and consolidated in a wide range during the year.

Market trend of plasticizer products in 2022

The trend of plasticizers in 2022 can be divided into four stages: from January to March, the rapid rise stage, and February 8, the highest level in 2022. The Russian-Uzbekistan conflict intensified as a result of dual-scheduled goods preparation, limited production and transportation during the Winter Olympics, and the sharp rise in crude oil. From April to the middle of June, the high level fluctuated and consolidated. The epidemic in Shanghai has led to a decline in construction, poor demand and insufficient support for the rise; Strengthened prevention and control, limited transportation, equipment maintenance, multiple benefits stimulate the high price fluctuation adjustment of plasticizers. From mid-June to July, the off-season plummeted. The demand was insufficient, the epidemic situation improved, and the start of construction rose and transportation resumed. DOP fell 25.47%, DOTP fell 26.23%, and DBP fell 14.93%. From August to December, the low level fluctuated and consolidated. Electricity is limited and the peak season is not prosperous.

Analysis of influencing factors of plasticizer industry chain

Cost factor analysis

It can be seen from the comparison chart of the price trend of plasticizer products and raw material products that the price trend of isooctanol is basically the same as that of plasticizer DOP, DOTP and DBP, with a high positive correlation. The price trend of phthalic anhydride and PTA has little correlation with the trend of plasticizer products, and has little impact on the price trend of downstream plasticizers. The price trend of n-butanol and DBP have a high positive correlation. It can be seen from the product correlation that the price trend of isooctanol and n-butanol has the greatest impact on plasticizer products. The price trend of plasticizer products in the future should focus on the price trend of isooctanol and n-butanol.

Proportion change of plasticizer products

From the proportion of plasticizers, it can be seen that the proportion of DOP decreased significantly, the proportion of DOTP increased significantly, and the proportion of other environment-friendly plasticizers also increased to a certain extent. DOP: In 2002, China’s DOP capacity was about 2.9 million tons, and nearly 1/3 of the units could not operate normally, and the DOP operating rate was about 50%. Mainly used for PVC related products. DOTP: The production capacity increased from 1.05 million tons in 2015 to 3.04 million tons in 2022, with an increase of 1.99 million tons, nearly doubling. DBP: The capacity reached the peak of 1.05 million tons/year in 2015, and then contracted. In 2022, DBP capacity contracted to 850000 tons (including some long-term shutdown devices).

Import and export volume of plasticizers in 2022

The import volume of plasticizers decreased and the export volume increased. The import volume of DOP accounts for the largest proportion of plasticizers. The import volume has decreased significantly year by year, while the export volume has increased slowly year by year. The export volume of DOTP is basically zero, while the import volume is relatively stable. The import and export volume of DBP is relatively the smallest, among which the export volume is slowly decreasing and the import volume is basically not.

Production of plastic products in 2022

The downstream of plasticizer is mainly used to produce PVC products. In 2022, the total output of plastic products will be 70.833 million tons, down 3.9% year on year; The output of plastic products fell, the demand for plasticizers fell, and the rise of plasticizer products in 2022 was not supported enough.

Export volume of plasticized PVC products in 2022

In 2022, the import volume of plasticized PVC products will be lower than the export volume. In 2022, the import volume of plasticized PVC products decreased slightly year-on-year, which was significantly lower than that in 2020. After the epidemic, the import volume of plasticized PVC products decreased year by year. In 2022, the export volume of plasticized PVC products increased significantly year-on-year, and the export volume has increased steadily since 2020. Exports increased, imports decreased, the demand for plasticized PVC products increased, and the demand for plasticizers increased. Since the fourth quarter of 2020, the price of plasticizers has remained relatively high, and the increase in export demand is one of the important reasons.

Future prospects

According to DOP data analysts of the Business Agency, in 2022, the production and transportation restrictions of the Winter Olympics, the energy crisis, the crisis in Ukraine and Russia, and the epidemic situation were frequent, and the pros and cons were mixed. In 2022, the price of the plasticizer industry chain was adjusted in a wide range of shocks. The supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain is relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer industry chain products is relatively stable throughout the year. The prices of isooctanol, n-butanol, DOP, DOTP, DBP and other industrial chain products fell slightly.

In 2023, worries about economic weakness intensified, domestic epidemic prevention and control were fully relaxed, domestic economic stimulus policies continued, and both sides were intertwined. In 2023, the market may show international economic weakness, and the domestic economy will recover.

In the future, the short-term annual close is approaching, the downstream stock of plasticizers has ended, the downstream enterprises have more holidays in advance, the demand for plasticizers before the holiday is insufficient, the price of plasticizers before the holiday is stable, the downstream stock replenishment increases after the holiday, and the plasticizers may rise briefly.

In the long run, in the post-epidemic era, the weakness of the foreign market economy continued, the demand for plasticizers weakened, and the expected recovery of the domestic economy had a positive support for plasticizers, but the positive was not enough to support the continuous rise of plasticizer prices. Since the fourth quarter of 2020, the price of plasticizers has remained high, which is mainly affected by the increase in exports after the outbreak of the epidemic. In 2023, the fear of foreign economic weakness has intensified, and exports may decline significantly. The price of plasticizers for the whole year of 2023 is expected to decline.

In 2022, the energy and chemical raw material market experienced a sharp rise and fall in international oil prices, a surge in natural gas prices in Europe and the United States, a sharp rise in the price of coal under the aggravation of the contradiction between supply and demand, and an intensification of the energy crisis, while the domestic epidemic situation was repeated, and the chemical market entered a state of double pressure between supply and demand. In 2023, from various policies to stimulate domestic demand to the full liberalization of the epidemic, opportunities and challenges coexist, and we look forward to breaking the market.

In January 2023, the chemical industry index continued to hover at the bottom, with a mixed rise and fall. The contradiction between supply and demand remained serious. Domestic production and demand still needed time to recover. The chemical industry index fell from 917 points to 911 points, down 0.65% as of the 14th, and continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at the bottom.

In the list of commodity prices in the first half of January 2023, there were 43 commodities in the chemical sector that rose on a month-on-month basis, including 5 commodities that rose more than 10%, accounting for 4.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were MIBK (18.7%), propane (17.1%) and 1,4-butanediol (11.8%). There are 45 commodities with a month-on-month decline, and 6 commodities with a decline of more than 10%, accounting for 5.6% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were polysilicon (- 32.4%), coal tar (high temperature) (- 16.7%) and acetone (- 13.2%). Both rose and fell by – 0.1%.

MIBK (18.7%): After the New Year’s Day, the MIBK market rose sharply due to the tight supply expectations. The national average price rose from 14766 yuan/ton on January 2 to 17533 yuan/ton on January 13.

First, the supply is expected to be tight, with the shutdown of 50000 tons/year large units, and the domestic operating rate falling from 80% to 40%. The short-term supply is expected to be tight. Second, the main downstream antioxidant industries replenish after New Year’s Day, and the downstream factories also replenish after a period of small orders. As the holiday approaches, the demand of downstream small orders follows up, and the resistance to high-priced raw materials is obvious. With the supply of imported goods replenished, the price gradually peaked and the rising trend slowed down.

Propane (17.1%): In 2003, the propane market got off to a good start. The average market price of Shandong propane rose from 5082 yuan/ton on the 2nd to 5920 yuan/ton on the 14th, of which the average market price reached 6000 yuan/ton on the 11th.

First, in the early stage, the price of the northern market was low, the downstream demand was relatively stable, the enterprises effectively destocked, and the downstream began to replenish goods after the festival, while the upstream inventory was low. At the same time, the recent port arrival volume was low, the market supply was reduced, and the price of propane began to rise strongly. Second, some PDH resumed work and the demand for chemical industry increased significantly. With the support of demand, the price of propane was easy to rise but difficult to fall. After the holiday, the price of propane rose strong in the north and weak in the south. In the early stage, the low-end sources of goods in the northern market were exported for arbitrage, effectively reducing the inventory. In the southern market, the prices were gradually adjusted due to high prices, and the goods were not moving smoothly. As the holiday approached, some factories entered the holiday mode, and migrant workers returned home. The market gradually peaked.

1,4-butanediol (11.8%): The bidding price of the industry rose sharply after the holiday, and the price of 1,4-butanediol rose from 9780 yuan/ton on the 2nd day to 10930 yuan/ton on the 13th day.

First, the production enterprises are reluctant to sell the goods in the spot market, while the main factories are bidding for the goods in the spot market and bidding for the goods in the spot market. In terms of devices, except for Dongjing Biological Phase I parking and maintenance, the industry’s burden fell slightly, and manufacturers continued to deliver contract orders. The BDO supply level is obviously positive. Second, the demand of PTMEG industry has increased with the increase of the restart load of BASF plant in Shanghai, and other downstream changes are not large, and the demand side is slightly positive. However, as the holiday approaches, some middle and lower reaches enter the holiday state in advance, and the overall trading volume of the market is limited.

Polysilicon (- 32.4%): After the New Year’s Day, the polysilicon market continued to fall in volume and price at the end of the year. After the festival, polysilicon fell by 78000 yuan/ton, and the market offer fell to 163333 yuan/ton on the 13th.

First, the supply is abundant, and manufacturers gradually accumulate stocks. The unit operating rate of silicon material enterprises remained high, and the number of orders signed by large factories continued to shrink. The contract price of large silicon material factories fell one after another due to the inactivity of downstream delivery. The supply of high-priced goods has gradually withdrawn from the market, and both volume and price are cooling down. In general, oversupply is the direct cause of price decline. Second, the overall demand of the downstream declined. Near the end of the year, the domestic installed demand decreased, especially for centralized projects, and the overseas winter demand dropped sharply, the labor shortage, and the order volume also declined. Both domestic and external demand were sluggish, leading to the decline of the PV industry chain. At present, the fundamental negative situation of silicon material is aggravated, the supply performance is excessive, and the demand is entering the off-season. The supply pressure will continue in the later period, but it is not ruled out that in the later period, due to the impact of the weather, the enterprise device maintenance, and comprehensive consideration, the silicon material market is still weak.

Coal tar (high temperature) (- 16.7%): In January, the coal tar market fell sharply, from 6150 yuan/ton to 5130 yuan/ton. First, the bidding in Shanxi fell by 1000 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of coking enterprises was high, and the overall supply was loose. Second, the downstream deep-processing industry is sluggish, the demand is cold, and the overall demand is difficult to improve. Enterprises have many uncertain factors about the market after the Spring Festival, and they have little intention of inventory before the festival. They wait for the market to become clear after the festival.

Acetone (- 13.2%): The domestic acetone market has declined broadly, and the price of the East China factory has dropped from 5550 yuan/ton to 4820 yuan/ton.

First, the high operating rate is around 85%, and the port inventory rose to 32000 tons on the 9th, which is fast rising, and the pressure on supply side is increasing. Under the pressure of factory inventory, the shippers have great enthusiasm for shipment, and the supply pressure is expected to increase with the smooth production of Shenghong Refining and Chemical Phenol Ketone Plant. Second, the downstream procurement is sluggish. Although the downstream MIBK market has soared, the operating rate has fallen to a low point and the demand is insufficient. The participation of middlemen is relatively low. Under the condition of cold market trading, the market has declined in a wide range. As the market falls, the pressure on phenolic ketone enterprises to lose money has increased. Although most factories wait for the market to be clear after the holiday to purchase again, the market offer has stopped falling and increased under the pressure of profit. The market will gradually become clear after the holiday.

From the perspective of upstream crude oil, the recent winter storm hit the United States, and crude oil is expected to fluctuate at a low level, weakening the cost support for petrochemical products. In the long run, the oil market faces not only macro pressure, economic recession cycle constraints, but also the game between supply and demand. On the supply side, there are risks of Russian production decline and OEPC+production reduction to support the bottom. The demand side is suppressed by the macro cycle, depressed by the sluggish supply and demand, and supported by the growth of Asian demand. The oil market is affected by macro and micro bullishness, so it is more likely to maintain broad volatility.

On the demand side, domestic economic policies clearly adhere to the domestic big cycle, do a good job in the international and domestic double cycle, and fully open up in the post-epidemic era, but the unavoidable reality is that the entity is still relatively weak, and the wait-and-see mood increases after the pain. In terms of terminals, the domestic policy on the epidemic has been optimized, and the confidence in logistics and consumption has been restored, but the demand for short-term terminals in the off-season of the Spring Festival and in the recovery period may be difficult to make a significant turnaround.

In 2023, China’s economy will recover slowly, but in the face of the global economic downturn and the expected intensification of economic recession in Europe and the United States, China’s export market of bulk products will still face challenges. In 2023, the chemical industry capacity will continue to grow steadily. In the past year, the domestic chemical industry capacity has shown a steady growth, with 80% of the main chemical products showing a growth trend and only 5% of the capacity declining. In the future, driven by the supporting devices and profit chain, the chemical industry capacity will continue to expand, and the market competition will be further intensified. The profits of enterprises that are difficult to form the advantage of the industrial chain in the future may be under pressure, but there are also backward capacity to be eliminated. In 2023, more large and medium-sized enterprises will pay attention to the growth of downstream sub-industries. With the continuous breakthroughs in domestic technology, environmental protection, high-end new materials, electrolyte and wind power industry chain will be more and more valued by large enterprises. In the context of dual-carbon, backward enterprises will accelerate the elimination, and new industries will penetrate into domestic substitution.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of sulfur in East China continued to rise in the first ten days of January. The average price of sulfur was 1300 yuan/ton on January 10, an increase of 2.36% compared with the price of 1270 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 14.10% month-on-month.

The sulfur market in East China is up, the domestic refinery units are operating normally, and the enterprise inventory is sufficient. In order to alleviate the inventory pressure, the sulfur refinery makes profits and shipments, and the enthusiasm of the downstream to enter the market increases. In addition, some downstream replenishment in advance, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the focus of sulfur trading continues to rise. As of the 10th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong was about 1240-1360 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 1240-1320 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The downstream sulphuric acid market is weak and downward. As of January 10, the average price of domestic sulphuric acid was 280.00 yuan/ton, down 2.33% from the price of 286.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The site operation rate increased, the supply of sulfuric acid was sufficient, the downstream operation was low, the demand was weak, the shipment of sulfuric acid enterprises was poor, and some operators were bearish, and the price of sulfuric acid was reduced.

The market price of monoammonium phosphate is weak and downward. On January 10, the average market price of 55% monoammonium phosphate was 3440.00 yuan/ton. At the beginning of January, the average market price of 55% monoammonium phosphate was 3537.50 yuan/ton, and the market price of monoammonium phosphate was reduced by 2.76%. The market demand is weakened, the transaction atmosphere is not good, the downstream takes the goods according to the demand, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the market focus of monoammonium phosphate is lowered.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the Business Society, the sulfur refinery at the supply side is currently operating smoothly, with sufficient inventory performance. The operators are in a wait-and-see attitude, mainly with stable price delivery, and there may be stock preparation operations in the downstream before the festival. The market trading atmosphere is increased. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be sorted up, and the follow-up situation in the downstream will be paid attention to.

In 2022, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market has experienced ups and downs. At the beginning of the year, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market was 9733.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of isobutyraldehyde mainstream market was 6466.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.56% within the year. The lowest price of the whole year was at the end of September, with the price of 5933.33 yuan/ton, and the highest price of the whole year was at the middle of February, with the price of 17833.33 yuan/ton, the largest drop of 66.73% in the year.

Judging from the monthly K-column chart of isobutyraldehyde, the market of isobutyraldehyde in 2022 has experienced ups and downs. The highest increase was 58.22% in January and the highest decrease was 50.81% in June. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on January 9 was 33.50, down 0.68 points from yesterday, down 68.27% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and up 11.22% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

Review of isobutyraldehyde market in 2022

The market of isobutyraldehyde rose in a wide range in the first quarter. In January, the rising trend in December 2021 was continued, with the upstream propylene market rising slightly and the downstream neopentyl glycol price rising sharply. The price of isobutyraldehyde rose from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 15400.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 58.22% in the whole month. In February, the upstream and downstream enterprises of isobutyraldehyde began to work, but the downstream market rose first and then fell, the downstream demand weakened, and the price of isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell. The price dropped by 9.52% from 15400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13933.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month. In March, the price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and rose. The upstream propylene price rose first and then fell, while the downstream neopentyl glycol price fell 6.67%. The price of isobutyraldehyde rose from 13866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 15566.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 12.26%. The price of isobutyraldehyde rose 59.93% in the first quarter.

The market of isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in the second quarter. In April, the market price of isobutyraldehyde upstream propylene rose slightly, the upstream support increased, and the price of isobutyraldehyde rose slightly. The price rose from 13566.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 14166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 4.42%. The price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply in May, from 14166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 17066.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 20.47%. In June, the downstream market fell sharply and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement weakened. The price of isobutyraldehyde dropped by 50.81% from 16400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8066.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall price of isobutyraldehyde fell 40.54% in the second quarter.

The market of isobutyraldehyde continued to fall sharply in the third quarter. Insufficient upstream propylene support. The downstream neopentyl glycol fell by 21.56% in the third quarter, and the downstream demand was poor. Under the influence of multiple negative effects, the price of isobutyraldehyde fell sharply in the third quarter. Isobutyraldehyde fell by 14.17% in July, continued to fall by 1.37% in August, and fell again by 18.72% in September. The price of isobutyraldehyde in the third quarter dropped from 8466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the quarter to 5933.33 yuan/ton at the end of the quarter. The price of isobutyraldehyde in the third quarter fell by 29.92% as a whole.

The market of isobutyraldehyde rose in the fourth quarter. The price of isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in October. After the National Day, isobutyraldehyde plants were shut down in some regions, and the isobutyraldehyde supply decreased. The price rose from 5933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 11.24%. The price of isobutyraldehyde fell in November. The upstream propylene is well supported, and the downstream neopentyl glycol demand is weakened. The price of isobutyraldehyde dropped from 6600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6233.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.56%. The price of isobutyraldehyde rose in December. The price of neopentyl glycol in the downstream rose slightly, and the demand improved. The price of isobutyraldehyde rose from 6233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6466.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 3.74%. The price of isobutyraldehyde rose by 8.99% in the fourth quarter

Future outlook: the market of isobutyraldehyde may fall first and then rise in the first quarter, and it will be dominated by consolidation. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, with general support. The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream began to rise, and the demand increased. After the Spring Festival, upstream and downstream construction increased and demand improved. On the whole, the market of isobutyraldehyde may fall first and then rise in the first quarter.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6375 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average ex-factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5400 yuan/ton on December 31. In 2022, the total price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 15.29%. The highest price of chlorinated paraffin in the year is 6737 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in the year is 5400 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In 2022, the market trend of chlorinated paraffin will fluctuate and decline. From the beginning of the year, the price of chlorinated paraffins fluctuated at a high level, rose to the highest level in March and then fell to August, rebounded from the bottom and rose again to October, and fell again to the end of the year in November. According to the chart of the rise and fall of 2022, the largest increase in the year was in March, with an increase of 9.61%. The biggest drop in the year was in December, with a drop of 7.95%.

Phase I

In January, the domestic chlorinated paraffin price fell by 7.45%.. In late January, the raw liquid chlorine was generally lowered, and the cost support was weakened. The market supply and demand of chlorinated paraffins are weak, and the prices of different regions are different. The national standard chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong fell below 5000 yuan/ton. Chlorinated paraffin is in the off-season, and the demand side is weak as a whole. As the Spring Festival approaches, the transportation is blocked and the manufacturers are shutting down one after another.

Phase II

From February to March, the domestic price of chlorinated paraffins continued to rise by 13.56%. Due to the continuous increase in raw material prices and good cost support, chlorinated paraffins rose sharply. Downstream operation rate increased and demand began to follow up. Under the support of cost, chlorinated paraffin has a good trend. However, the epidemic broke out in many places in China, and the transportation was affected to some extent.

Phase III

From April to July, the domestic price of chlorinated paraffins continued to decline by 12.19%. The market of raw liquid chlorine is poor and the cost support is insufficient. Some enterprises have shut down production, and the supply of chlorinated paraffin has decreased. Downstream demand is weak, and on-site trading is cold. The price of chlorinated paraffins fell to a low level, and the downstream was cautious to wait and see under the bearish market condition.

Phase IV

From August to October, the domestic price of chlorinated paraffin continued to rise by 5.96%. The market trend of raw liquid chlorine is stable and rising, and the cost support is improving. Before the National Day, there is a demand for stock in the downstream, and the intra-field trading volume is increased. The manufacturer’s shipment was stable and the focus of transaction was increased.

Phase V

From November to December, the domestic price of chlorinated paraffins continued to decline by 13.37%. The cost support of chlorinated paraffins weakened, the demand side continued to be weak, and more purchases were made on demand, with fewer transactions. Due to the impact of domestic epidemic transportation, the price difference between different regions in China is large. In order to digest the inventory and reduce the price for shipment, the focus of the chlorinated paraffin market moved downward.

Annual data

In 2022, the global total production capacity of chlorinated paraffins will be about 3.1 million tons, mainly concentrated in China, accounting for 65% of the global total production capacity. In 2022, the market size of chlorinated paraffins in China will reach 5.381 billion yuan, and the global market size of chlorinated paraffins will reach 14.481 billion yuan. In 2022, China’s chlorinated paraffin enterprises have reached more than 1000, mainly distributed in Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other regions, among which there are a large number of chlorinated paraffin enterprises in Henan.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analysts of the Business Society, there is still overcapacity in chlorinated paraffin in 2022, and the inventory is lower than in previous years. In the first half of 2022, it was at a high level and the trend in the second half was weak. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffins will be consolidated in 2023, mainly depending on the change of demand side.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of steam coal is weak this week. On January 6, the energy index was 1083 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 30.62% from the peak of 1561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 111.94% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the price of steam coal is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The main production area is mainly to ensure the supply and long-term cooperation of coal. However, as the end of the year is approaching, the main production area is safety, and the overall supply of coal is limited. The overall wait-and-see mood of the market is strong, Duowei mainly holds the rigid demand for procurement, and the shipment of some coal mines is average.

In terms of downstream ports, the market sales are not smooth, there are few deals at high prices, the overall market turnover is average, and the enthusiasm for taking goods in the downstream is average. The end users’ demand for steam coal is limited as a whole, with a wait-and-see attitude, and there is a phenomenon of price depression.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 4, the national coal prices rose and fell in late December. The specific price changes of various coals are as follows: the price of anthracite (washed block, volatile matter ≤ 8%) is 2072.1 yuan/ton, 2.1 yuan/ton higher than the previous period, or 0.1% higher. The price of ordinary blended coal (the blended coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 938.6 yuan/ton, down 57.1 yuan/ton or 5.7% from the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahun (blended coal with good quality and calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 1070.0 yuan/ton, down 94.3 yuan/ton or 8.1% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high-quality blended coal with calorific value of 5500 kcal) was 1261.4 yuan/ton, down 82.9 yuan/ton or 6.2% compared with the previous period.

Analysts from the business community believe that the overall sentiment of steam coal in the production area is average, and the market transaction is average. In terms of downstream ports, when the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream still mainly wait and see for steam coal, and the purchase enthusiasm of power plants is average. With the decline of port coal price, the downstream has a phenomenon of price depression. It is comprehensively predicted that the steam coal price will be dominated by weak operation in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

In 2022, the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in a U-shaped shock

According to the data of the business agency, the aluminum fluoride market will first fall and then rise in 2022, showing a U trend in general. As of December 31, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 12200 yuan/ton, down 15.08% from 14366.67 yuan/ton on January 1. The highest price of aluminum fluoride in the year is 14366.67 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 10650 yuan/ton, and the maximum amplitude in the year is 25.87%.

The trend of aluminum fluoride in 2022 is mainly divided into three stages

Phase I: rapid decline from January to March

At this stage, the cost of raw materials decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply. In 2022, the market of aluminum fluoride will rise rapidly and fall rapidly in the second half of the year. As the price of raw materials continued to fall, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell rapidly in the first quarter. As of March 31, the price of aluminum fluoride was 10875 yuan/ton, 24.30% lower than that on January 1.

Second stage: shock consolidation stage from April to August

At this stage, the price of fluorite rose in shock, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials fluctuated and consolidated, the demand for aluminum fluoride was weak, the rising support of aluminum fluoride was insufficient, and the downward pressure was limited. The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and consolidated.

The third stage: shock and rising stage from September to December

Since late August, the power rationing in Sichuan has spread to the whole country. The commencement of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum fluoride enterprises has declined, the supply of aluminum fluoride is insufficient, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite have risen in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen, the supply of aluminum fluoride is insufficient, and the price of aluminum fluoride has risen in shock. At the same time, due to the lack of gold, silver and silver, the demand for aluminum fluoride is less than expected, and the impetus for aluminum fluoride to rise is limited. In December, with the price of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite falling, The price of aluminum fluoride dropped slightly in December.

Aluminum fluoride export volume

According to the data released by the customs, the cumulative export volume of aluminum fluoride from January to November 2022 is 94674 tons, a sharp increase over previous years. The export volume of aluminum fluoride increased, the demand for aluminum fluoride increased, and aluminum fluoride was supported by a certain increase.

Future outlook

In 2022, the aluminum fluoride market will fall first and then rise. In the first quarter, affected by the decline of raw materials, the price of aluminum fluoride will fall sharply. Although the quality of Jinjiuyinshi is insufficient, aluminum fluoride enterprises will not start construction in September and October. The aluminum fluoride supply is tight, leading to the price of aluminum fluoride rising. In general, the supply and demand of aluminum fluoride market will be relatively balanced in 2022. In the future, the epidemic situation will continue and the demand for aluminum fluoride will remain weak. In the first quarter of 2023, the aluminum fluoride market may continue to weaken in December 2022. In the second and third quarters of 2023, or in the rising range of fluorspar hydrofluorate, aluminum fluoride will be supported to a certain extent.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the POM market in 2022 began to run at 20666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and began to fall in early July. As of January 2, 2023, the POM price was 13933.33 yuan/ton, a decline of 32.58% throughout the year. The trend was high before and low after, with a large decline.

The trend of POM market in 2022 is mainly divided into two stages:

The first stage: deadlock stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of POM was 20666.67 yuan/ton on January 1 and 21333.33 yuan/ton on June 30, with a range increase of 3.23%. In the first quarter of this year, the supply of POM continued the tight pattern of last year, and the price rose at a high level. From the end of March to the end of June, although the supply side remained tight, the market demand began to decline in full authority. At the same time, the stock position began to rise. By the middle of the year, the stock in the market was high, and the price position driven by the strong market in 2021 began to loosen. At the whole stage, the market remained stuck at a high level.

The second stage: weak decline stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of POM from 21,333.33 yuan/ton on June 30 to 13,933.33 yuan/ton on January 2 at the beginning of 2023, the price fell rapidly, and the overall price hit the bottom, with an overall decline of 34.69%. At the beginning of this stage, POM officially entered the traditional demand off-season market, and the consumption of downstream enterprises was weak, and there was no large-scale replenishment in procurement. In addition, the high level of inventory at the end of June was taken over, and the bad news was superimposed. The spot price fell rapidly. The decline was concentrated in the three months of the third quarter, including the traditional peak season of “nine gold and ten silver”, which also failed to stimulate demand. This year’s POM peak season is not strong. In the second half of the year, the industry load and supply remained at a high level, while the demand did not improve. After the market fell rapidly, it found a balance point. Around October, the price level was about 13500 yuan/ton, which was stable and dynamic until the end of the year.

Overall, the trend of POM market in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:

The demand of terminal enterprises has weakened, and the POM market has been dragged down

The downstream of POM is mainly concentrated in electronic appliances, consumer goods, automobile industry, industrial machinery and other fields. In 2022, the overall demand of downstream enterprises will be insufficient, which will gradually drag POM from its high level operation in the first half of the year to the supply and demand contradiction market. At the beginning of the year, due to the high price of POM, the cost pressure of downstream enterprises increased, and the impact of the inflation environment on real enterprises, downstream small and medium-sized enterprises were affected by this, and many of them suffered losses, and the stock level contracted.

Industry development remains stable, high-end models rely on imports

In recent years, the domestic POM industry has been cautious in expanding production and capacity, and there are few new units put into production. In the consumption of POM, electrical appliances, automobiles and machinery account for 67% of the total domestic consumption, and these products are mainly high-end products with high requirements for the quality of raw materials for parts. Generally, imported products are used. China’s POM import dependence level is about 50%, and is concentrated in high-end products. Most domestic brands are basic products, and the supply is excessive. The market competition is fierce, forming a certain pressure on the market.

The enterprise starts at a high level and keeps the supply side under pressure

In 2022, domestic POM enterprises will start at a high level throughout the year, with the monthly average operating rate as high as 88.65%. Only during the Spring Festival in February, the domestic load will reach 72.49%. In the rest of the month, the load will remain at a high level, and the operation at full operating level in the last quarter will be more stable. In terms of output, the monthly average shipment was 36000 tons, and the annual performance was stable. However, the downstream demand lags behind, the on-site supply is excessive, and the pressure on the supply side is gradually rising due to the warehouse construction. The market price fell under pressure, the mentality of the seller camp became weaker, and the operation was biased towards giving up profits and taking orders.

Future market forecast: POM analysts from the business community believe that the domestic POM industry will develop steadily in 2022, the demand of downstream enterprises will gradually lag behind, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be obvious in the second half of the year. The upstream operates with vibration, and the cost end is generally supported. The load of POM enterprises is high in the second half of the year, and the inventory pressure is high. On the macro level, the current global inflationary economic environment remains unchanged, the wide fluctuation of oil prices driven by European geopolitical conflicts, the rebound of domestic health events, and the devaluation of the RMB have all had negative effects on the POM market to varying degrees. To sum up, in 2022, the POM industry will suffer from bad news, and the activities will tend to be conservative with average market momentum. It is expected that the POM market will continue to weaken due to insufficient demand.