Overall, the domestic melamine market has continued to operate weakly recently. On November 5th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared to the beginning of this month (5437.50 yuan/ton), which is at the low level of the price range for the year. Despite the flexible price adjustments of individual companies, it is difficult to reverse the overall decline of the market.

The current market price has slightly declined compared to the beginning of the month, indicating downward pressure. However, the “flexible changes” in the market are also reflected in this. Taking Hebei Xinji Jiuyuan Chemical as an example, although it raised its quotation by 50 yuan/ton to 5350 yuan/ton on November 5th, the actual transaction is still “negotiable”. This reflects that manufacturers are trying to tentatively raise prices, but due to the lack of solid market demand support, the final transaction is often accompanied by discounts. This phenomenon of “clear stability but hidden decline” or “flexible negotiation” is a true reflection of the current market.
Supply side:
The domestic production capacity of melamine is already at a high level. Although the industry’s operating rate remains at around 70%, social inventory is still high and the market supply is sufficient.
Demand side:
The demand for melamine is closely related to the prosperity of the real estate industry, with over half of its production used for manufacturing boards. The current adjustment in the real estate market has directly led to a decline in orders for downstream panel companies, and the procurement of raw material melamine is mainly based on small orders for essential needs, which is difficult to support a price rebound.
Cost side:
The price of urea, as the main raw material, is also running at a low level during the same period. As of November 5th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1585.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.4% compared to the beginning of this month (1607.50 yuan/ton). This has led to a decrease in the production cost line of melamine, losing a key supporting factor from the cost side, further exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market.
Overall, against the backdrop of sufficient supply but sluggish demand, the melamine market is unlikely to see any improvement in the short term. It is expected that the market will mainly consolidate weakly, and there may still be a risk of a downward trend in the price center. Any ‘flexible changes’ in the market will be local and temporary, and cannot form a broad upward trend.

Since November, the domestic acrylic acid market has shown an overall stable and weak operation, driven by the fundamental driving force of “terminal rigid demand procurement”. The market lacks strong upward or downward momentum, and under the interweaving of long and short factors, prices fluctuate narrowly, with transactions mainly consisting of small orders for essential needs.

Overall market performance: ‘Stability’ is the main theme
Price level: As of November 4th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society is 6500.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.
At the transaction level, the characteristic of “essential purchase” is obvious. Downstream factories and traders generally adopt a cautious attitude, and their market purchases are mainly focused on meeting short-term production needs, with rare large orders and hoarding behavior. The market transaction atmosphere is lukewarm, and the phenomenon of “one single talk” is common.
1. Demand side:
The main downstream performance is average:
Acrylic ester (butyl acrylate, etc.): Its downstream industries such as adhesive tape and coatings are in a traditional off-season, with limited order growth and stable consumption of raw materials, making it difficult to form a centralized procurement trend.
SAP (Highly Absorbent Resin): mainly used in the field of hygiene products, with relatively stable demand but lacking unexpected growth points.
Polymer lotion: general demand in construction and textile fields.
Buying up, not buying down mentality: Due to cautious expectations for the future, end users generally do not have a strong willingness to stock up. When prices remain stable or even slightly loose, they tend to prefer “on-demand procurement” and wait for lower prices or clearer market signals.
2. Supply side:
The operating rate remains at a medium high level: Since November, the overall operating rate of the acrylic acid industry has remained around 65% -70%. Although some devices undergo routine maintenance, it has not caused a significant impact on market supply, and the supply of goods is sufficient.
Inventory pressure is controllable: The overall inventory level of production factories is in the middle range, and there has been no serious inventory backlog. This gives the factory a certain confidence in the price game, unwilling to significantly reduce prices for sales, thus forming a bottom support for prices.
3. Cost side:
The price of raw material propylene has weakened: After November, the price of the main raw material propylene has experienced a certain degree of decline. As of November 4th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6018.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton). This weakens the cost support of acrylic acid and provides space for the downward trend of acrylic acid prices. The loosening of costs has eased the profit pressure of acrylic acid factories, but at the same time, it has also reduced the market’s acceptance of high priced acrylic acid.
Future prospects:
Short term (until the end of November): The market is likely to continue the pattern of “stable and weak, dominated by rigid demand”. In the absence of significant positive or negative news, prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. If the raw material propylene continues to weaken, there may be a slight downward shift in the price center of acrylic acid.
Summary:

For “terminal essential procurement”, the acrylic acid market since November has been a typical “buyer’s market”. The purchaser has significant bargaining power and choice space, and can easily purchase according to their own production pace without worrying about shortages or price surges. In summary, behind the ‘stable operation’ is the full embodiment of the logic of ‘rigid demand procurement’ under weak supply-demand balance. The market is waiting for new driving factors to break this balance.

Since mid-September, the domestic acrylonitrile market price has continued to decline, further dropping below 7,900 yuan/ton in October, reaching a new low for the year and the lowest level since July 2023. The mainstream off-tank ex-shipment price at East China ports is around 7,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month and a 34% decrease compared to the peak of 11,900 yuan/ton in February this year. In the Shandong market, the short-distance delivery price is 7,850 yuan/ton, marking a 33.5% decline from the peak of 11,800 yuan/ton in February this year.

The intensification of supply-demand imbalances remains the primary cause
Looking back at historical data, since the acrylonitrile industry entered an overcapacity cycle in 2022, market prices have typically reached their annual lows during the traditional off-season in July-August, then generally showed an upward trend in the fourth quarter. However, this year’s market performance has deviated from the norm. Since the beginning of 2025, the first quarter saw a sharp market rally driven by supply uncertainties, followed by prolonged fluctuations at relatively low levels (between 8,000-8,500 yuan/ton). By the fourth quarter, prices further declined to the lower end of 8,000 yuan/ton.

On one hand, 2025 marks a new round of concentrated capacity expansion following 2022, with 1.05 million tons of new capacity already successfully commissioned as of now, and the majority of the additional supply expected to be gradually released in the second half of the year. On the other hand, downstream industries have increasingly diverged from the traditional peak and off-season patterns due to factors such as upstream price volatility, external market turbulence, and their own supply-demand shifts. Notably, this year’s “Golden September and Silver October” period was largely uneventful, falling far short of the usual consumption growth seen in the same period in previous years.
In terms of the market outlook for the fourth quarter of this year, by October, the maintenance of acrylonitrile production facilities had gradually resumed, with industry capacity utilization rising to nearly 80%, reaching its highest level since March this year and significantly higher than the same period last year. Given the already substantial increase in capacity to 5.421 million tons per year, supply further surged significantly. According to calculations, domestic acrylonitrile production exceeded 400,000 tons in October, marking the highest monthly output in history. Although consumption also showed growth, it lagged far behind the supply increase, resulting in a domestic supply-demand gap of 64,000 tons in October, a relatively high level. Contract and spot sales also faced notable pressure during the month, prompting suppliers to actively lower prices and clear inventory.
However, as the price of acrylonitrile dropped to historically low levels, buyer enthusiasm began to rise. This was also driven by concerns that potential supply fluctuations in acrylonitrile could lead to a price rebound. Consequently, despite no clear expectation of significant growth in actual consumption, downstream users showed strong willingness to build positions.
It is understood that the major acrylonitrile producers have smoothly scheduled their contracts for November, alleviating sales pressure. However, apart from a minor maintenance plan for one production line at Kourou and the delayed restart of Fushun Petrochemical’s 92,000-ton-per-year unit until early November, no clear production cut plans have been announced for other acrylonitrile facilities. As a result, supply is expected to remain high in November and December, indicating limited prospects for easing industry overcapacity.

Market forecast: Overall estimation for November shows that the supply-demand imbalance in the acrylonitrile industry still exists. Although it is understood that the export negotiation volume has also increased, the supply-demand gap is still difficult to reconcile. At the same time, in the short term, the inventory of acrylonitrile industry is shifting to downstream links, but the long-term accumulation pressure has not yet eased. In addition, in the long run, the upstream propylene price may fluctuate around the range of 5900-6100 yuan/ton, and the support of raw material costs has also weakened. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be resistance to the continued upward push of the acrylonitrile market, and there may be slight fluctuations in the short term. If there is no improvement in long-term supply and demand, it is not ruled out that prices will fall again.

In October 2025, the “Silver Ten” of the textile industry will not appear, and the demand for adhesive short fibers will perform averagely, with order execution being the main focus. The market will continue to consolidate weakly, and prices will remain stable overall. As of October 31st, the average price of the domestic adhesive short fiber market was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the same period last month. The market trend of raw material dissolution slurry is stable, with average cost support. The finished product inventory of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers is not high, and there is no obvious inventory pressure at present. Downstream cotton yarn manufacturers mainly execute early orders, and the overall market speed is weak and stable. Follow up is needed as needed.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in October 2025, the market price of viscose staple fiber was weakly stable. As of October 31, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous price. However, due to weak demand, the actual transaction prices were generally lower than the quoted prices. On October 31st, the mainstream quotes in Shandong were concentrated in the range of 13000-13100 yuan/ton, with actual transactions mostly ranging from 12850-13000 yuan/ton.

Insufficient support for raw material costs
The price of viscose staple fiber raw material dissolution slurry remains weak and stable at a low level, with limited cost support. At the end of October, the price of domestically produced dissolving pulp was about 6700 yuan/ton, while the price of broad-leaved pulp was 800 US dollars/ton and coniferous pulp was 870 US dollars/ton. The overall fluctuation was small, and the prices of auxiliary materials such as sulfuric acid and liquid alkali were adjusted narrowly, but effective support was not formed.
Supply and demand demand
The daily operating rate of the industry remains at around 75%, and the inventory level of manufacturers is relatively low. However, some enterprises have adjusted their production load, resulting in a slight decrease in supply. The downstream cotton yarn market is experiencing a shortage of silver, with fabric factory finished product inventory rising and purchasing enthusiasm decreasing. Only vortex spinning export orders are slightly better, and overall demand follow-up is weak. As of October 31st, the price of R30S ring spun cotton yarn in Jiangsu region is around 17200 yuan/ton, and the price of R40S ring spun cotton yarn is around 18300 yuan/ton. The transaction volume in the human cotton yarn market is not ideal.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of adhesive short fiber raw materials will remain weak in the short term, with insufficient cost support.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have low inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be strong in the short term; The demand in the terminal market has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be limited in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with both supply and demand lacking driving forces. The overall supply is sufficient, and the inventory of manufacturers is not high. Downstream yarn factories mainly sign orders on demand and purchase on demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, Business Society analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in November, and the price is expected to be around 13000-13200 yuan/ton for acceptance.

In October 2025, the price trend of polyester filament will first decrease and then increase, showing a steady adjustment trend. As of October 30th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6400-6700 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7750-8000 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

price trend
Downward trend in the first ten days: After the National Day and Mid Autumn Festival holidays, the polyester filament market experienced sluggish trading, and production enterprises quickly accumulated inventory. As of October 9th, the average inventory of polyester filament sample enterprises reached 22 days, an increase of 4 days from before the holiday. From October 13th to 17th, the overall market showed a weak downward trend, with the price center of gravity shifting downwards. On October 20th, the prices of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY all experienced varying degrees of decline. The price of polyester POY was 6750 yuan, with a daily increase and decrease of -2.61%. The price of polyester FDY was 6826.67 yuan, with a daily increase and decrease of -2.52%. The price of polyester DTY was 7931.25 yuan, with a daily increase and decrease of -1.86%.
Mid month stabilization and rebound: On October 23rd, due to the rise in international oil prices and the improvement of the textile market, some polyester factories reduced their discounts on polyester filament or raised their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. On October 24th, Rongsheng Petrochemical partially increased DTY by 50-100, POY and FDY both increased by 50, and some FDY increased by 100.
Shock finishing in the last ten days: On October 30, the overall shock finishing of polyester filament was carried out, with scattered small batch transactions in the majority and stable price adjustment. The mainstream quotation of POY150D/48F was 6450-6500 yuan/ton of cash, and the mainstream quotation of DTY150D/48F was 7750-7850 yuan/ton of cash. The price of FDY was increased due to losses, mainly reflected in the fine wires.
market analysis
Cost factor: From October 22nd to 23rd, international oil prices significantly rebounded, leading to an increase in polymerization costs, which compressed the profit margins of polyester filament production enterprises and significantly increased their willingness to raise prices, providing support for polyester filament prices.
Supply and demand relationship: In terms of supply, the industry had high inventory in the early stage. As of October 17th, the weaving factory’s raw fabric inventory was significantly higher than the same period last year, making it difficult for the trading volume of polyester filament to continue to rise. In terms of demand, the recovery of demand during the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” in the early stage was weak, and downstream weaving enterprises were cautious in procurement, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory for essential needs. But in late October, the arrival of cold air caused the demand for winter fabrics to begin to pick up. On October 21st, the average production and sales rate of polyester filament sample enterprises soared to 367.9%, and by the end of the 27th, the average production and sales rate of sample enterprises also reached 218%. The boost in demand has played a certain role in supporting prices.
Market mentality: With the improvement of the market situation, polyester manufacturers have adjusted their quotations in order to seize market share. The market mentality has improved, and some enterprises have increased their willingness to raise prices. However, due to the overall high inventory, there is still a cautious wait-and-see attitude downstream

Price trend:

According to the Business Society’s commodity market analysis system, as of October 29, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was reported at 122,116 yuan per ton, showing a slight monthly decline of 0.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.06%. Throughout the month, the price trend was influenced by both policy expectations and the realities of supply-demand fundamentals, resulting in overall narrow fluctuations.
Indonesia’s Mining Policy Adjustment: The validity period of mining quotas has been shortened from three years to one year, sending a clear signal of the government’s strengthened supply regulation. This policy change initially sparked expectations of supply tightening after the holiday period, driving nickel prices up by 1.22%.
Improved International Economic and Trade Relations: The positive progress in high-level economic and trade dialogues and follow-up consultations between China and the United States has effectively alleviated concerns about the escalation of trade frictions, providing support to market sentiment.
Positive economic data both domestically and internationally: China’s GDP maintained steady growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters, while the U.S. CPI data fell below expectations, sparking interest rate cut forecasts, collectively forming a relatively favorable macroeconomic environment.
Supply side:
Cost support emerges: The Indonesian nickel ore reference price rose by $40.33 per dry ton month-on-month, reflecting tight nickel ore supply and providing bottom support for nickel prices. The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) shows stable or rising prices for nickel processing products, aimed at maintaining nickel price stability.
Inventory pressure is significant: LME nickel inventories surged by 20,394 tons within the month to hit a record high of 251,706 tons, while SHFE nickel inventories rose sharply by 6,616 tons to 31,433 tons. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, exerting downward pressure on nickel prices.
Import pressure persists: In September, ferro-nickel imports surged by 47.60% year-on-year, driven primarily by increased supplies from Indonesia and Brazil, exacerbating domestic oversupply expectations.
Demand side:
The stainless steel sector remains sluggish: The industry faces a “peak season without peak performance” dilemma, with weak transactions and continuous price declines. On October 29, the benchmark price of stainless steel on Business Society was 12,900 yuan per ton, down 1.19% for the month. Reduced production by multiple steel mills has intensified the weakening demand for nickel.
The new energy sector is poised for long-term growth but faces short-term pressure: In September 2025, the installation volume of ternary batteries decreased by 10% year-on-year, with market share shrinking to 17.5%. The cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries continues to squeeze nickel demand. In 2026, the preferential purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles will phase out, leading to an expected slowdown in sales growth. However, breakthroughs in all-solid-state battery technology may drive long-term demand for high-nickel ternary materials, providing potential support for nickel prices.
Market Outlook:
In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in a fluctuating pattern: upward constraints include global high inventories and persistently growing supply, while downward support comes from rising raw material costs and long-term demand expectations for new energy.

The current domestic melamine market is showing a narrow consolidation trend. As of October 28th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5450.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.8% compared to the beginning of this month (5550.00 yuan/ton). The cost of raw materials and supply side provide some support, but weak downstream demand is the main factor restricting the development of the market.

Overall pattern: The market is characterized by a supply-demand game and a stalemate operation. On the one hand, the price of raw material urea increased at the beginning of this week. As of October 28th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1625.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.23% compared to the beginning of this month (1621.25 yuan/ton), which supported the cost of melamine. On the other hand, downstream factories have low purchasing enthusiasm and the demand remains flat, making it difficult for market prices to rise significantly. market dynamics
Enterprise dynamics: From the table, it can be seen that different enterprises have differentiated their pricing strategies. This reflects that in the current market environment, enterprises mainly adjust prices flexibly based on their own inventory, orders, and location, and a unified trend of upward or downward trend has not yet formed.
Supply side: It is necessary to pay attention to the start-up situation of each enterprise. Data shows that the weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to slightly increase, which may increase market supply
Demand side: The downstream procurement situation is the key to determining whether the price can be stable. If demand continues to be weak, the market will find it difficult to break free from the consolidation pattern.
Future outlook: It is expected that the melamine market will continue to maintain a stable and consolidating trend in the short term. The key to market trends still lies in the changes between supply and demand:

1. Trend Analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, copper prices fluctuated upward in October. At the beginning of the month, the price was 83,143.33 yuan per ton, and by the end of the month, it rose to 88,095 yuan per ton, marking an overall increase of 5.96% and a year-on-year growth of 15.1%.
According to the spot-futures chart from Business Society, the copper spot price in October initially exceeded the futures price, then fell below it, and finally surpassed the futures price again by month-end. The main contract reflects the expected price two months ahead, indicating a volatile outlook for copper’s future price.
According to LME inventory data, LME copper stockpiles saw a slight decline in October. By the end of the month, LME copper inventory stood at 135,975 tons, down 4.1% from the beginning of the month.
Macro Perspective: In September, the CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points is as high as 96.7%, with over 94% chance of another 50-basis-point cut in December. The low-interest-rate environment reduces corporate financing costs and stimulates copper demand. The approval of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan adds further positive momentum, as profits of nationally listed industrial enterprises grew by 3.2% from January to September. Market confidence in the growth prospects of the world’s top copper consumer is robust. The U.S.-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur reached a “preliminary consensus,” leading to a significant rebound in market risk appetite.
Supply side: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia continues to shut down (the world’s second-largest copper mine), and production in Antofagasta, Chile, may only reach the lower end of the 660,000 to 700,000-ton range by 2025. The ICSG has revised its forecast for copper supply growth in 2025 downward from 2.3% to 1.4%, while Citigroup and UBS predict minimal supply increases this year. The contraction in supply directly drives up costs.
Downstream sector: Demand-side divergence, characterized by “weak traditional and strong emerging sectors”: Emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics maintain stable growth, while traditional consumption sectors (e.g., real estate, building materials, infrastructure) show sluggish growth. High copper prices dampen spot demand, leading to a cautious outlook among downstream procurement enterprises.
According to the annual price comparison chart from Business Society, over the past five years, copper prices in November have mostly declined more than risen, with the first half of the month showing strength and the second half experiencing a drop.
In summary, the improvement in macroeconomic margins and cost-side disturbances provide dual support, suggesting that copper prices may continue to show a strong upward trend in the short term. However, attention should be paid to the early arrival of the end of the month and the off-season, as well as the dampening effect of high copper prices on downstream demand. It is expected that copper prices will primarily fluctuate within a wide range in November.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on October 28th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was referenced at 9640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 0.72% from October 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9710 yuan/ton).

The weak market operation in October resulted in a slight decrease in the center of gravity of prices
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in October, the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal spot market showed a weak and downward trend, and the market price center slightly fell. On October 27th, the market price reference for Metal Silicon Oxygen # 553 in East China was around 9300-9400 yuan/ton, and the market price reference for Metal Silicon 441 in Kunming was around 9700-9900 yuan/ton The market price reference for metal silicon # 441 in Huangpu Port area is 9500-9700 yuan/ton, in Tianjin Port area it is 9400-9600 yuan/ton, and in Xinjiang area it is around 8600-8800 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
Supply side: Currently, there is a significant differentiation in the supply side of silicon metal. As the dry season approaches in the southwest region, silicon metal production enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan are gradually reducing production. Some enterprises are expected to further reduce their load by the end of this month, and the overall operating rate in the southwest region is expected to continue to decrease. However, the overall operating rate in the northwest region has increased, and the resumption of work by large factories in Xinjiang has driven an overall increase in regional operating rates. After complementing the supply side with the southwest region, the overall supply pressure in the market still exists.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for metallic silicon has shown signs of looseness. Firstly, the overall production of downstream organic silicon plants has been reduced, which has provided insufficient support for the demand for raw material metal silicon procurement. Secondly, although the overall production of downstream polycrystalline silicon market has slightly increased, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and caution is exercised in raw material procurement. Finally, only the downstream aluminum alloy market has stable production, coupled with a small amount of exports providing slight support for the procurement of raw materials for silicon metal.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the cost support of metal silicon is still acceptable, forming a bottom support for the market situation. However, high supply and low demand still reveal the supply-demand game. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate in a range of fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

Price Trend: (10.18-10.24)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 24th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 123033 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.37% during the cycle, but still a year-on-year decrease of 3.05%. The game between macro factors and weak fundamentals has affected the narrow range fluctuation trend of domestic spot electrolytic nickel prices.
On October 18th, high-level economic and trade officials from China and the United States had a phone call and agreed to hold a new round of consultations as soon as possible, easing market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions and providing some support for nickel prices. However, LME continued to increase inventory and suppress, resulting in a slight decrease in nickel prices on the 20th.
On October 21st, China’s GDP for the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a positive economic outlook and driving a single day rebound in nickel prices.
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, held from October 20th to 23rd, proposed goals such as high-quality development and technological self-reliance during the 15th Five Year Plan period. The market has expectations for subsequent domestic demand stimulation and industrial policies, which will drive up nickel prices on the 24th.
Supply side:
Enhanced cost support: The reference price for the second phase of nickel ore in Indonesia in October increased by $40.33 per dry ton compared to the previous month, reflecting a tight global supply and demand for nickel ore and providing cost support for nickel prices.
Small accumulation of inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 324 tons to 250854 tons, while the previous period’s inventory decreased by 232 tons to 26810 tons. The pattern of oversupply still exists, which continues to suppress the upward space of nickel prices.
Increased import pressure: In September 2025, China’s nickel iron imports increased significantly by 47.60% year-on-year, mainly from Indonesia and Brazil, exacerbating expectations of domestic oversupply.
Demand side:
Weak demand for stainless steel: The stainless steel market is showing a trend of “high production capacity and weak inventory reduction”. On October 24th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 12975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% during the week. Insufficient support for nickel prices.
Although the new energy sector is a long-term growth point, its short-term impact on nickel demand is limited.
Future outlook:
The current nickel market presents a fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although rising costs and macroeconomic policy expectations provide short-term support for prices, high inventory continues to suppress upward price potential. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term without significant changes in the external environment.