Since May, the domestic butadiene rubber market has shown a trend of rising and falling. As of May 12th, the mainstream price of BR9000 in East China has fallen to 15650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.40% from 16200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; Compared to the monthly high of 16330 yuan/ton, it has decreased by 4.16%.

During the small and long holiday in early May, market trading stagnated, and the price of butadiene rubber remained stable temporarily; After the holiday, with the release of supply side production capacity, prices gradually came under pressure and weakened, lacking sustained upward momentum, showing an overall downward trend of oscillation. Market transactions are mainly based on essential purchases.
The increase in supply side volume is one of the core factors leading to the weakening of the market. With the gradual recovery of profits from the production of butadiene rubber in the early stage, some of the previously shut down and load reducing devices have been restarted, resulting in a significant increase in the industry’s capacity utilization rate. As of May 7th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of the domestic Gaoshun Shunding rubber industry reached 54.87%, a significant increase from the end of April.
The cost side continues to decline, and the support for butadiene rubber continues to weaken. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 12th, the price of butadiene was 12400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.06% from 13200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The weak demand side has significantly dragged down the market. Since May, domestic tire companies have experienced a decline in operating rates due to production shutdowns during the May Day holiday, reduced export orders, and accumulated finished product inventory. As of May 8th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 4.8%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong has reached around 4.9%, but downstream factories have weak purchasing intentions and are holding onto rigid demand for replenishment. This has resulted in insufficient support for the demand for butadiene rubber, further exacerbating the oversupply situation in the market.
From a technical perspective, prices have continued to operate below short-term moving averages such as the 10th and 20th, forming a bearish pattern with significant short-term suppression. Only the 10 day oversold signal provides weak technical rebound support for the market.
Market forecast:
From a fundamental perspective, the short-term market for butadiene rubber is expected to remain volatile and weak. The supply side equipment continues to resume production, and the pressure of accumulated inventory is gradually increasing; The recovery of tire operating rate on the demand side is slow, and the support for essential needs is limited; The price of butadiene on the cost side is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations.
From a technical perspective, from early April to early May 2026, the average spread of butadiene rubber rapidly fell from a high of+950 yuan/ton, and after falling below the zero axis, it reached a low of -500 yuan/ton. It then fluctuated and rebounded around -300 yuan/ton, indicating the end of the previous strong upward trend and entering a downward channel. The current downward trend has slowed down significantly, but the short-term average has not yet reached the long-term average, and the downward trend has not reversed.
Comprehensive prediction: There is a high probability of short-term low-level oscillation, stabilization and stabilization; Whether it can rebound depends on: 1) the average difference turning positive; 2) Butadiene strengthens or tire production increases significantly.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on May 11, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9510 yuan/ton. Compared to May 1 (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 9390 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.28%.
1、 Trend Review

In May, during the holiday season, the performance of the silicon metal market was relatively calm, with limited market fluctuations. After the holiday, the overall performance of the domestic silicon metal 441 # market was relatively strong. On May 7th, the price of silicon metal 441 # continued to rise, starting from 9390 yuan/ton and steadily increasing to 9510 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 1.28% and a rise of 120 yuan/ton. As of May 11th, the domestic market price reference for metal silicon 441 # is 9200-9700 yuan/ton.
Market influencing factors
On the demand side: As we enter May, the overall production of downstream polycrystalline silicon has slightly increased, which has led to a stable increase in industrial silicon consumption. The weekly operating rate of organic silicon enterprises has also slightly increased, and some individual factories in certain regions have resumed production. It is expected that the consumption of industrial silicon by organic silicon will also increase slightly in May. The demand in the aluminum alloy industry remains stable, with overall marginal improvement in downstream demand and increased demand support.
On the supply side: Currently, the low-end price of silicon metal market has decreased, the overall inventory on the supply side is still controllable, the mentality of enterprises has improved, and the transmission of market supply and demand has improved.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the silicon metal market is mild, and the improvement of downstream rigid demand is the main factor for this round of price increases. However, with the arrival of the wet season in the future, the overall operating rate of the silicon metal market is expected to increase, and the uncertainty of supply increment expectations is relatively strong. This will form a certain constraint on the continued rise of prices. Therefore, it is expected that in the short term, the silicon metal market will mainly operate in a range of fluctuations, and the supply-demand game in the market will still exist. More attention needs to be paid to the changes in supply and demand, as well as the news of construction commencement.

In early May 2026, the spot price of natural rubber entered a period of high volatility after several months of continuous increase. Through comprehensive analysis of the spot prices, moving average trends, basis differences, and historical cycle data of Shengyi Society, the current natural rubber market shows the characteristics of “high prices, weakened upward momentum, and intensified fundamental game”, and the turning point signal of the market has begun to emerge.
1、 Price trend: High level stabilization, marginal slowdown in upward trend
The price of natural rubber has started a clear upward trend since the beginning of 2026. As of May 8, 2026, the spot price of natural rubber is 17841.67 yuan/ton, with a significant increase during the year and in the absolute high range of the past year (the one-year position is displayed as “high”, with a maximum value of 17858.33 yuan/ton during the year, and the current price is only one step away from the historical high).
From the perspective of the moving average system, the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day moving averages still maintain a clear bullish alignment, indicating that the medium to long-term upward trend has not been completely disrupted. But the key signal appears in the change of the moving average:
On May 8th, the average difference between the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average was 249.16 yuan/ton, which changed from positive expansion to contraction. This means that the short-term upward momentum has weakened and the speed of price increase has begun to slow down.
From May 4th to May 5th, there was a repeated trend of “narrowing and re expanding” in the moving average, indicating that the long short game is intensifying and the consistency of the upward trend is being broken.
The price of natural rubber has been rising for four consecutive months since January 2026, with an increase of 6.08% in January, 3.94% in February, and 5.08% in April. After the continuous rise, the market has accumulated a large number of long profit taking positions, and the pressure of correction is gradually emerging.
2、 Basis analysis: reversal of the current pattern and divergence of market sentiment
Basis (spot price – main futures price) is a core indicator for judging the relationship between the futures and spot markets. The recent changes in the natural rubber basis reflect an important turning point in market sentiment
In late April, the natural rubber basis was in a negative range for a long time. On April 30th, the basis was as low as -181.67 yuan/ton, which was in the low range of nearly a year. This indicates that the futures price was significantly higher than the spot price at that time, and the market had optimistic expectations for the future market. The futures market had a driving force on the spot price.
After entering May, the basis quickly recovered. On May 8th, the basis was 11.67 yuan/ton, which changed from a premium to a slight premium and was in the high range of nearly a year. The rapid repair of the basis not only reflects the high trading support in the futures market, but also means that the upward momentum in the futures market has weakened, and the optimistic sentiment in the futures market has diverged.
The high operation of the basis also means that the space for further significant increases in short-term futures prices has been compressed, and the market has shifted from a pattern of “futures driving spot prices up” to a stage where spot prices stabilize at high levels and futures fluctuations follow.
3、 Historical cycle and annual comparison: High level at the highest level in the same period of the past decade
From the annual price comparison data, it can be seen that there is a significant difference in the price trend of natural rubber in 2026 compared to previous years

In early May 2026, the price of natural rubber has reached 17841.67 yuan/ton, significantly higher than the price level of the same period from 2017 to 2025 (14408.33 yuan/ton in 2025, 13630.00 yuan/ton in 2024, and 11660.00 yuan/ton in 2023), reaching the highest level in the same period of the past decade.
From the perspective of seasonal patterns, natural rubber usually enters the peak cutting season in the second quarter, and supply pressure should gradually increase, leading to seasonal price corrections. But the market in 2026 clearly breaks the traditional seasonal pattern, indicating that the current price support comes more from special variables on the macro, demand or supply side, rather than traditional supply-demand balance. Historical data shows that natural rubber prices often enter a high volatility phase after breaking through previous highs, rather than a sustained unilateral rise. The current high price range means that the resistance to further upward movement has significantly increased, and the volatility risk has been amplified accordingly.
4、 Core contradiction: a two-way game of support and pressure
（1） The supporting factors are still present, and it is difficult for the high level to quickly fall back
Supply side disturbances still exist: Uncertainty factors such as weather and policies in major global producing countries remain important supports for natural rubber prices. The progress of cutting in the main production areas of Southeast Asia, the efficiency of adhesive production, and changes in export policies may all cause disturbances to short-term supply, supporting spot prices.
Downstream demand still has resilience: the operating rate of downstream industries such as tires remains at a high level, providing some support for the essential demand for natural rubber. There has been no significant contraction in spot market transactions, and prices are unlikely to experience a cliff like decline.
Strong support from medium to long-term moving averages: The 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day moving averages are still in a clear upward trend, providing strong support for prices, while the short-term trend has not completely reversed.
（2） The pressure factors are gradually accumulating, and the upward space is limited
Marginal attenuation of upward momentum: The moving average has shifted from widening to narrowing, the rate of price increase has slowed down, the driving force of bullish funds has weakened, and the market lacks new upward catalysts. Seasonal supply pressure approaching: With the main production areas in Southeast Asia entering a period of comprehensive cutting, natural rubber supply will gradually increase, and marginal changes in supply and demand patterns may suppress prices.
High level profit taking pressure: The price of natural rubber has been rising for multiple months, and the market has accumulated a large number of long profit taking positions. Once a negative signal appears, it may trigger concentrated profit taking and exacerbate price fluctuations.
The high-level repair of the basis has been completed: the basis has changed from a discount to a premium, and the driving effect of the futures market on spot prices has disappeared. The optimistic sentiment in the futures and spot markets has diverged, and there is insufficient motivation for further upward movement.
5、 Market outlook
The current natural rubber market has entered a high-level game stage, and the short-term price is likely to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern, with limited upward space and gradually increasing downside risks. The narrowing of the moving average, the high level of the basis, and the approaching seasonal supply pressure all indicate that a turning point in the market may be forming. If the price cannot break through the suppression of the previous high point of 17858.33 yuan/ton, it is likely to enter a period of oscillation and decline. The support below can be focused on the 20 day moving average near 17000 yuan/ton.

1、 Market Review

This week, the melamine market as a whole showed a trend of “high-level decline and narrow consolidation”. As of May 8th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% compared to the beginning of this month (6875.00 yuan/ton), and it is basically in a sideways consolidation stage.
From the price trend in the past three months, the market has experienced a roller coaster like situation: in early February, the price bottomed out around 5700 yuan/ton, and then continued to rise under the push of cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. In early April, it reached a stage high of 9675 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 70%; But since mid April, the price has rapidly fallen, and as of May 8th, it has dropped to 6850 yuan/ton, with a drop of more than 29% from the high point. Currently, the price is in the mid to low range of the past year, slightly higher than the low point of 5375 yuan/ton this year, and there is still a price difference of nearly 3000 yuan/ton from the high point this year.
2、 Interpretation of core technology signals
According to the analysis logic of the moving average of Business Society’s spot trading platform, the moving average indicator of the melamine market this week has sent a clear adjustment signal:
The 10 day moving average continues to operate below the 20 day moving average, and the moving average shows a negative expansion trend, corresponding to the market’s accelerated decline stage. On May 6th, a signal of “1/07 bottoming out” appeared, confirming the continuation of the short-term downward trend. Prices have always been under pressure below various moving averages, and the rebound is weak.
From the perspective of moving averages, the 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day moving averages still show a clear bearish trend, indicating a lack of short-term upward momentum in prices and a weak pattern that has not yet been reversed.
From the perspective of cycle position, the current price is at a low level in both the 10/20/30/60 day cycle, and at a medium low level in the 90 day and one-year cycles, indicating that the short-term price has entered a temporary bottom range and the downward momentum has weakened.
3、 Fundamental core influencing factors
Cost side: The core raw material of melamine is urea. Recently, the overall urea market has been weak, and prices have been under pressure to decline. As of May 8th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1867.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the beginning of this month (1875.00 yuan/ton). Directly weakened the cost support of melamine.
Supply side: The high prices in the early stage stimulated the increase in industry operating rates, and some shutdown and maintenance facilities were gradually restarted. The market supply of goods increased, especially in the East China region where there was sufficient circulation of goods, and the pressure on enterprises to ship increased.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have entered the traditional off-season, with low terminal operating rates and insufficient willingness to purchase for essential needs. The market lacks centralized stocking demand and has a low acceptance of high priced sources, resulting in a weak overall trading atmosphere.
After experiencing significant fluctuations in the early stages, market participants tend to be cautious. Traders mainly rely on shipping to recoup funds and are unwilling to actively receive and stockpile goods; Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude, waiting for prices to further fall. The overall market presents a mentality of “buying up, not buying down”, further exacerbating the weak operation of prices.
4、 Market price forecast and trend outlook
Judgment on the price trend of melamine market in the next 1-2 weeks:

Price range prediction: It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 6700-7000 yuan/ton, with the core support level around 6700 yuan/ton and the pressure level at 7000 yuan/ton.
The short-term downward momentum has weakened to some extent, but the bearish pattern of the moving average has not yet reversed. Coupled with the impact of the off-season demand, it is difficult for prices to rebound significantly, and it is highly likely to maintain weak consolidation. The possibility of a slight bottoming out cannot be ruled out. If the price falls below 6700 yuan/ton, the downward support will look towards the 6500 yuan/ton line.
Overall, the current melamine market is in a weak consolidation stage after a decline, lacking clear upward drivers in the short term, and the weak pattern is difficult to quickly reverse. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the price of raw material urea, changes in downstream demand, and adjustments in industry operating rates. These factors will be the key to determining whether the market can stop falling and stabilize.

On April 30, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9390 yuan/ton, which decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 0.53% compared to April 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9440 yuan/ton).
1、 Trend Review

In April, the overall market situation of Metal Silicon 441 # showed a “first suppression and then rise, with a slight decline during the month”. The price of Metal Silicon 441 # started from 9410 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and quickly fell to 9360 yuan/ton in early April, a decrease of 0.85%. It then entered a narrow range of oscillation and repair, gradually recovering to 9390 yuan/ton in the middle and late of the month and stabilizing. As of April 30th, the domestic market price reference for metal silicon 441 # is 9200-9700 yuan/ton.
Market influencing factors
From April 1st to 10th, the market price of metal silicon 441 # rapidly fell, and the downward trend was mainly affected by weak market trading and insufficient downstream purchasing willingness, which dragged down the price pressure due to demand. From April 11th to 20th, the market price of metal silicon 441 # was in a low oscillation stage, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. The price fluctuated slightly in the range of 9360-9370 yuan/ton, and the downward trend slowed down. From April 21st to 30th, the market stabilized and rebounded, with prices recovering to 9390 yuan/ton and remaining stable. The improvement in the market was mainly supported by marginal improvements in supply and demand.
Market analysis in the future
Currently, the overall performance of the 441 # silicon metal market is stabilizing. With the southwest region entering a period of abundant water in May, the expectation of electricity price reduction is increasing. The pace of resuming production of silicon plants in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places will accelerate, and the market supply expectation will increase. In terms of downstream demand, the demand for real estate and consumer electronics downstream of organic silicon terminals is steadily recovering, which provides certain support for silicon metal. The increase in exports of aluminum alloy power equipment and the demand for lightweight automobiles is relatively mild, and overall demand is expected to slow down. It is expected that in May, the metal silicon market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

Acetic anhydride prices fell in April

The acetic anhydride market experienced a weak downward trend in April. As of April 30th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1157.5 yuan/ton or 17.24% from the price of 6712.5 yuan/ton on April 1st.
On the supply side, the production of acetic anhydride remained stable within the month, and the market supply of goods was stable. The company maintained a focus on shipping; Downstream demand has shown poor performance, with sluggish procurement of high priced acetic anhydride and a general trading atmosphere in the market. In order to promote shipments, companies have shifted their price focus downwards; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid has shown a significant decline, with weak cost support, which has a negative impact on the price of acetic anhydride, driving the continuous decline of the acetic anhydride market.
Acetic acid market weakly declines in April
As of April 30th, the price of acetic acid commodity was 3193.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.61% compared to the beginning of the month price of 4530 yuan/ton. The operating rate of acetic acid has increased within the month, with sufficient market supply and weak downstream demand. The company’s shipments are poor, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. At the same time, the raw material methanol is fluctuating, and the cost support is limited. The fundamentals of acetic acid are bearish, and the price trend is weak and downward during the month.
outlook for the future market
Analysts believe that the raw material acetic acid has limited downward space due to cost pressure, and industry players are mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, which provides some support for the price of acetic anhydride; The acetic anhydride plant on the supply side is operating smoothly, and downstream demand is following suit. The market supply and demand are in a game, and it is expected that the acetic anhydride market will be weak and stable in May. The price will be adjusted accordingly, and the specific price changes will be closely monitored in the upstream.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol first rose and then fell in April. On April 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 9283.33 yuan/ton, and on April 29th, the average price was 8716.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the beginning of the month.
In April, the market price of isopropanol first rose and then fell, indicating an overall decline in prices. In the first half of the year, the market price of isopropanol first rose and then fell, with the rise being the main trend, supported by the increase in raw material prices, and the market trading was still acceptable. In the middle of the month, the market price of isopropanol fell, downstream terminal demand was weak, and new orders from production factories were poorly traded, resulting in a decrease in quotations. The domestic isopropanol market fell first and then rose in the latter half of the year. Supported by raw material costs, some production factories have experienced narrow price increases, mainly driven by rigid demand. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 8500-8600 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in Jiangsu region are around 8800-9000 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price first rose and then fell in April, and overall the price fell. On April 1st, the average price of acetone was 8012.5 yuan/ton, and on April 29th, the average price was 7737.5 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3.43%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere is good, and it is expected that the acetone market will operate strongly in the short term.
In terms of raw material propylene, the domestic propylene market price fluctuated and rose in April. On April 1st, the market average was 8784.33 yuan/ton, and on April 29th, the average price was 9351 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.45%. At present, international oil prices continue to rise, and propylene market trading is good. It is expected that the propylene market price will be strong in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Isopropanol analysts believe that the market price of isopropanol rose first and then fell in April. At present, the mentality of the cargo holders is stable, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. It is expected that the isopropanol market will maintain stable operation in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the trend of the raw material market.

In April 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market experienced a volatile downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 168000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 161250 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 4.02% throughout the month. In April, the overall performance of the domestic antimony ingot market showed an increase in price decline, weak supply and demand, and intensified long short game. The sustained weakness of terminal demand became the core factor leading to the weakening of the market. The supply side gradually formed a bottom support force under the support of factors such as mine shutdown and refinery active production reduction. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets returned to a high outside and low inside pattern. The market trading atmosphere was more active than before, but the overall situation is still in a weak adjustment stage, and the price center continues to shift downwards.

Supply side:
Due to control measures and accidents, domestic antimony mines have been shut down for rectification, resulting in a contraction in raw material output. Coupled with a decrease in overseas raw material sources and an inverted price difference between domestic and foreign sources, the import replenishment efforts are limited; Although the import volume of antimony raw materials was relatively high in the first quarter and the short-term supply of goods was relatively loose, the continuous decline in antimony prices this month has compressed the profits of smelting enterprises. Refineries have generally adopted operations such as shutting down furnaces and reducing production, and reducing inventory and production. Coupled with the overall higher overseas antimony prices than domestic prices, the export circulation of goods is restricted, and the overall market supply pressure is gradually easing. The industry’s proactive production control has brought certain bottom support to antimony prices.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: Antimony oxide is the core downstream application field of antimony ingots, mainly used in the production of flame retardants. The overall transaction volume of antimony oxide this month is relatively weak. Affected by a shortage of orders in downstream industries such as plastics and electronics, flame retardant companies have a low purchasing willingness. Although bromine prices have significantly decreased this month, easing the cost pressure on flame retardant companies, there has been no substantial improvement in terminal demand. Companies only maintain essential replenishment, with weak willingness to actively stock up. The continued weak purchasing demand for antimony oxide has indirectly transmitted to the antimony ingot market, resulting in insufficient support for antimony ingot demand.
Photovoltaic: The photovoltaic field is an emerging demand growth point for antimony ingots, mainly used for photovoltaic glass production. In April, the demand in this field continued to be weak, which failed to effectively stimulate the antimony ingot market. The current photovoltaic glass industry is in a weak operating situation, with continuously low capacity utilization, high inventory pressure, and a strong atmosphere of production reduction and cold repair in the industry. The strong expectation of price reduction in the terminal market, slowdown in overseas shipments, and lower than expected module production have led to a synchronous contraction in the procurement demand for antimony ingots by photovoltaic glass enterprises, further exacerbating the weak situation on the demand side of antimony ingots.
Market outlook: In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, and the weak demand trend is difficult to change in the short term. The recovery of core downstream demand such as photovoltaics and flame retardants is weak, which still exerts pressure on antimony prices; However, the expectation of supply side contraction continues to strengthen, with refineries proactively reducing production, mines shutting down for rectification, and the inverted price difference between domestic and foreign markets suppressing imports, providing bottom support for antimony prices. It is expected that the domestic antimony ingot market will be in a stage of supply-demand rebalancing in May, with prices likely to fluctuate in a narrow range, limited downward space, and insufficient rebound momentum. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand, the implementation of refinery production cuts, and the impact of international antimony price fluctuations.

1、 Market Review
This week, melamine has emerged from an extreme market trend of “sharp decline followed by sideways trend”. The benchmark price of Shengyi Society fell from 8050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7025 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a cumulative decline of 12.73% for the whole week, almost wiping out most of the previous gains and becoming the week with the most severe decline since this round of rise.
Core driving factors for decline
1. In the early stage of price surge on the supply and demand side, the market is overly optimistic about the peak season demand for downstream boards and coatings. However, terminal demand has not shown any improvement this week, and downstream enterprises only maintain essential procurement, resulting in a complete collapse of their willingness to accept high priced orders; At the same time, the equipment that was shut down for maintenance in the early stage resumed production, and the market supply quickly rebounded. The supply-demand contradiction shifted from tight balance to loose, and prices lost their upward support.
At the beginning of the week, a sharp drop of nearly 10% in a single day broke the market’s bullish expectations, and pessimism quickly spread. Some traders chose to clear inventory at low prices to avoid risks, exacerbating the downward pressure on the market.
Trend prediction
Based on this week’s technical signals and market fundamentals, the following are the predictions for next week’s trend:
Short term (1-2 weeks): Due to the “negative expansion” stage of the mean, the momentum of inertia decline still exists. There is a strong pessimistic sentiment in the market, and downstream buyers are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the price will repeatedly compete around the 7450 yuan/ton line. If the support is weak, there is still a risk of further exploring the 7000 yuan integer level.
Mid term (1 month): Pay attention to when the 10 day moving average will level. Only when the price stops falling and stabilizes, and the moving average shifts from “negative expansion” to “negative contraction”, is it a signal of slowing down the decline and market bottoming out.

Since April 2026, the natural rubber market has seen a slight increase. As of April 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17150 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.52% from 16566 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Due to weather disturbances, the rubber cutting process at home and abroad is slow, and the overall supply is tight. The main production areas of Yunnan and Hainan in China continue to experience high temperatures and little rainfall, and some areas in Yunnan have temporarily stopped cutting due to drought. After cutting in Hainan, the release of glue is slow. Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Vietnam have also been affected by drought disturbances, leading to higher prices for raw material adhesives. Raw material prices in Thai production areas have reached a new high in recent years, with strong cost support. ANRPC data shows that global natural rubber production may slightly contract in 2026, with a supply and demand gap of about 400000 tons for the whole year, and the expectation of tight supply is rising.
Downstream tire companies experience narrow fluctuations in production, with strong demand support being the main factor. As of the week of April 24th, the construction rate of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies was 7.7%; The construction of all steel tires by Shandong tire enterprises started at 6.90%. The demand for natural rubber has some support, but tire inventory continues to rise. The turnover days of all steel tires are nearly 40 days, and the turnover days of semi steel tires are over 43 days. Enterprise procurement is mainly based on rigid needs, and the willingness to replenish inventory is low. ​
Port inventory has slightly increased: as of April 26, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 716300 tons, an increase of 7500 tons compared to the previous period, with a growth rate of 1.06%. ​
Market forecast:
Overall, if the precipitation in the production area continues to be low in the later stage, the expectation of tight supply will be strengthened, and the price is expected to be tested at 17500 yuan/ton; If the drought situation eases, the amount of new glue added accelerates, and the inventory turnover slows down, the price may fall back to around 16500 yuan/ton. ​