Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average ex-factory price of sulphur market in East China is 746.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.48%. On August 20, the sulphur commodity index was 40.97, down 2.38 points from yesterday, down 60.55% from 103.84 points in the cycle (2011-11-02), and up 17.46% from 34.88 points on October 23, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic sulphur market prices have been sharply lowered, downstream demand performance is still weak, terminal purchasing enthusiasm is weak, lack of information guidance, refineries in various regions continue to downward price adjustment, the mainstream price of solid sulphur in East China market is around 680-740 yuan/ton, liquid sulphur is 50 yuan/ton, the mainstream price is 610-730 yuan/ton. About 40-70 yuan/ton for solid sulfur in Shandong market, 780 yuan/ton for solid sulfur, 620-700 yuan/ton for liquid sulfur, 40 yuan/ton for solid sulfur in North China market, 610-660 yuan/ton for solid sulfur and 580-620 yuan/ton for liquid sulfur.

Industry chain: The vulnerable sorting of sulphur market continues to decline, the vulnerable sorting of acid Market downstream, coexistence of high land prices, contradictions between supply and demand on the site remain, both buyers and sellers are cautious to trade, business mentality is not good, the market is not supported by substantive good news for the time being, it is expected that prices will be low or downward.

Industry: From the demand point of view, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, it is difficult to change. Domestic port inventory is high, market turnover is still cold, real information is scarce, port storage consumption is slow, buyers and sellers wait for information guidance. Domestic sulphur market continued to decline, downstream demand has not improved, the industry for the future look at the atmosphere is strong.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business sulfur analysts believe that the current sulfur market lacks information guidance, no substantive positive factors, downstream demand has not improved for the time being, industry cautious wait-and-see, expected short-term sulfur market or continued weak consolidation.

On August 20, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 103.72, which was the same as yesterday. It was 26.14% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 93.54% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable on August 20. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11 430 yuan/ton, and the domestic starting rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that there is sufficient supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot at present, and the recent on-site shopping situation is general. Recently, due to poor downstream demand, part of hydrofluoric acid is in short supply. Manufacturers cut prices slightly, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid fell. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10500-11000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 11000-11500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price declined, spot supply is normal, but the demand situation is poor, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is temporarily stable.

The price of fluorite in the upstream slightly declined. As of the 20th day, the price of fluorite was 3068.75 yuan/ton. The downward price of raw materials in the upstream had a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, and the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable. The downstream refrigerant product plant starts at a low level. The demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is poor. Recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products fluctuates. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. At the end of the peak season, the downstream demand of terminals decreases but does not increase. The downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is low. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was 1676.67 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the end of the week, down 21.04% from the same period last year. The light soda commodity index on August 16 was 85.98, which was the same as yesterday. It was 27.05% lower than the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 36.15% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation, the market is weak and stable, manufacturers have sufficient orders, the current domestic mainstream light soda factory price is 1520-1700 yuan/ton; domestic heavy soda mainstream to the terminal price is 1700-1850 yuan/ton, this week, the heavy soda market changes little, manufacturers shipment situation is relatively smooth, the market stock is bullish. It is expected that some manufacturers will implement the end-of-month pricing.

Industry chain: the downstream cryolite plant is running normally at present, the factory stock is sufficient and pressure-free, and the ex-factory quotation is temporarily stable; the price of sodium pyrosulfite continues to run at the bottom this week, the overall market is still depressed, the cost of raw materials continues to be depressed, the main body of upstream and downstream trade is cautious, and some enterprises are to protect it. Goods continued to focus on sodium sulfite market prices, domestic sodium pyrosulfite market prices continued to operate at a low level this week. This week, downstream glass market performance is relatively strong, downstream processing enterprises orders are rising steadily, with the arrival of the traditional sales season, traders actively follow up the stock.

Industry: Affected by typhoon this week, soda factory start-up load is not high, slightly decreased, downstream demand is flat, no obvious improvement, end users and some traders are generally motivated to get goods.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that this week, the domestic light alkali market has been running steadily, the number of maintenance manufacturers has increased, the supply of goods has decreased, and the inventory of soda manufacturers has remained low. It is expected that the soda market will run steadily in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

Recently, the price of urea, which was originally weak, has risen slightly. Whether it is hype or not, most traders in various markets are not optimistic about the current market, indicating that urea prices are still doomed to decline. At this time, the ammonium chloride market is also in a weak position. The quotation from factories (pay attention to the publicity quotation for the information platform) is relatively strong, but the report is high and the quotation is low. The actual transaction is declining.

At present, the domestic market of wet ammonium and dry ammonium still shows some differences. The market of wet ammonium is slightly better than that of dry ammonium, but if the prices of some ammonium continue to fall, wet ammonium will inevitably be affected by this. At present, some of the mainstream dry ammonium ex-factory quotations in central China are around 680-720 yuan/ton, but the actual reference price to the factory is about 710-720 yuan/ton; the mainstream wet ammonium ex-factory quotations in eastern China are about 600-650 yuan/ton, with favorable transaction rates, while the mainstream dry ammonium ex-factory quotations are between 720-750 yuan/ton. The actual reference price has fallen to only 700 yuan/ton, of which the dry ammonium quotation is slightly higher. Most ammonium supply to Shandong market arrived at about 750 yuan/ton; dry ammonium ex-factory quotation in North China was firm at 720 yuan/ton, but under the trend of rising start-up, the price is expected to fall.

It is difficult to support the overall operation of joint alkali enterprises at a high level. Some ammonium chloride enterprises said that they would carry out overhaul this month, but according to the latest knowledge, factories have said that the overhaul time will be delayed until late or mid-next month, and a few ammonium chloride enterprises in North and East China will resume production by the end of this month, which means that the overall industry start-up rate of the United alkali enterprises will be the same. Up to now, according to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, it has risen to 76%. In the short run, it will continue to maintain this level or above, and it is difficult for the factory to improve its shipment. However, in the long run, if the ammonium chloride enterprises are repaired as scheduled in September, the start-up rate will be reduced.

Demand is weak, the market may be “overdrawn” in advance. First, affected by Typhoon Lichma, the compound fertilizer enterprises in some parts of East China were forced to stop short or start-up rate was reduced. Second, under the environmental protection and safety inspection, some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises were forced to limit or stop production, such as East China, Central China, Southwest China and other regions, which showed slightly obvious performance, while for compound fertilizer plants, purchasing. The third is the 70th anniversary of the celebration, which will inevitably restrict the production of chemical fertilizers and chemical enterprises in the surrounding areas. According to some ammonium chloride enterprises in Shaanxi Province, the production of compound fertilizers around September will be restricted or stopped. Businessmen and enterprises do not “catch a cold” to light storage. Fall fertilizer production has considerable demand for wet ammonium, but they have no choice but to overdraft the market ahead of time. Dry ammonium is difficult. However, the light storage in Northeast and Northwest China has not started yet, the time is not yet said, the price has not reached the bottom, so the terminal has no intention of purchasing, forcing enterprises to reduce prices.

However, urea is weak and its support to ammonium chloride is weak. Although a small number of urea enterprises in Shandong and Hebei have increased urea quotation by 10-40 yuan/ton since Wednesday, it has not caused a big disturbance. Traders are still very rational. Considering market factors, it is generally believed that urea market is “hype” with a short duration and little support for ammonium chloride.

In conclusion, the market of ammonium chloride has more negative factors than positive ones, so the market turns to weak. Although some enterprises are unwilling to “admit” that the price has fallen, it is useless. It is expected that in the off-season and at the high level of ammonium chloride enterprises, the low level of urea, environmental protection and “parade blue” will affect some raw material fertilizers and compound fertilizers. Restrictions such as start-up of enterprises, it is expected that the price of dry ammonium still has room for a slow decline. Although wet ammonium is relatively strong, it can not withstand the long-term negative impact of the price reduction of dry ammonium.

Price Trend

The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 3783.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price was 3776.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, the decline was 0.18%, which was 12.58% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic liquefied petroleum gas fell first and then rose this week, and the trading atmosphere in the market improved. As of August 16, the ex-factory price of liquefied gas of Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3210 yuan/ton, that of Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3380 yuan/ton, that of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3160 yuan/ton, that of Qingdao Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3480 yuan/ton, and that of Shandong Gold Co., Ltd. The liquefied gas ex-factory price of Chengdu Petrochemical Group is 3650 yuan/ton, and that of Shijiazhuang Refining and Chemical Branch of Sinopec is 3600 yuan/ton. Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical Liquefied Gas ex-factory price is 3600 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market rose first and then declined. The average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 3176.67 yuan/ton on August 9, and 3040 yuan/ton on August 16. Within a week, the price of dimethyl ether (Henan) fell by 4.3%, 33.98% compared with the same period last year. This week the propane market continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the average propane market price was 3602.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 3702.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, it rose by 2.78%, and the price fell by 22.8% compared with the same period last year. Saudi Amy Corp. announced in August that the price of propane was narrowly lowered and the price of butane was narrowly increased. Propane was 370 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last month; butane was 360 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from last month. The cost of long cargo propane is about 3056 yuan per ton on shore and 2980 yuan per ton on butane. At present, it is in the off-season of consumption. The market demand is slow and the consumption rate is declining. The downstream is mostly replenished on demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. The liquefied petroleum gas market fell first and then rose this week. Affected by typhoon weather at the beginning of the week, there was rainfall in Shandong, which affected the production and loading and unloading of manufacturers. In addition, the transportation of high-speed dangerous chemicals was limited, the trading atmosphere was cold and the price trend was weak. Later by the international crude oil boom to bring good market, prices generally increased, trading atmosphere improved significantly, smooth shipment.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are six kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector in the commodity price rise-fall list in the 32nd week of 2019 (8.12-8.16). Among them, there are one commodity with an increase of more than 5%, which accounts for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities with a rise are coke (6.29%), gasoline (2.26%) and methanol (1.92%). There are nine kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products are dimethyl ether (-4.60%), liquefied natural gas (-3.53%) and power coal (-1.20%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.14%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied petroleum gas analysts of business associations believe that the current trend of international crude oil is uncertain, and news support is limited in the face of the market. But the traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine Silvers and Ten Decades” is coming, and the market demand is increasing. Expect late or upstream shocks.

1. Domestic PP plant commissioning in 2019

Although environmental protection problems can not be ignored at present, it is not expected that the future installation will be put into operation. Dongguan Juzhengyuan and Zhongan United will basically release the bad news before September, Qinghai Damei in the fourth quarter, Ningbo Fuji Phase II, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other bad news will soon be released, and the overall market trend will be weak in the future.

2. Main factors affecting the rise and fall of the market

At present, the main reasons affecting the market trend are supply and demand, that is, demand and cost. Recently, the imbalance between supply and demand in the industrial chain has led to the setback of market price. In fact, the mentality of businessmen plays an important role in the trading market. Once businessmen are optimistic about the market, the market will be speculated. If businessmen are short of the market, the price will be lower than the average level of the market. In short, the market price is flexible, but the supply and demand industry chain has gradually become a major problem for PP people.

3. Current situation of PP

At present, the price of polypropylene market is still hovering at a low price. Although the current market price decline has been delayed, many businessmen dare not rush into the market in view of the current market. In addition, the demand of downstream factories has been sluggish this year, the shipment difficulty of enterprises is higher, and the market is still difficult to change in the short term. The mainstream market price is 8600-8900 yuan/ton. The quotation of traders keeps pace with the pace of production enterprises. It is difficult to release volume in the whole market, which leads to the further increase of social inventory.

4. Future Market Forecast

Petrochemical inventories continued to decline, together with eased trade relations, strong shocks in polypropylene futures, giving a positive boost to the market, today’s overall market trading atmosphere is slightly better than the previous period. At present, the price difference between PP powder and granular material is small, and the price advantage of granular material is obvious. At the same time, the downstream demand boosts the price of PP granular material. It is expected that the market of PP granular material will go up slightly in the near future. The mainstream of wire drawing is hovering between 8600 and 8900 yuan/ton, while the mainstream of copolymerization is between 8550 and 9300 yuan/ton.

On August 15, 2019, the price of fluorine chemical industry rose and fell in a total of 1 commodities, fell in a total of 0 commodities, rose and fell to 0 in a total of 4 commodities. Rising products: trichloromethane (1.92%); stable products include hydrofluoric acid, fluorite, aluminium fluoride and cryolite.

On August 15, the market price trend of fluorine chemical raw materials was temporarily stable. The price of fluorite raw materials was 3093.75 yuan/ton. Recently, some domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally. Mines and flotation plants in the field started to operate normally. Fluorite supply vehicles in the field. However, the recent downstream market was not good, and the price of fluorite was affected by the decline. The fluorite market in southern China is generally in operation, while the fluorite market in southern China is stable for the time being. As of the 15th day, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia is 2800-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of fluorite negotiation in Fujian is 2900-3200 yuan/ton, the price of fluorite in Henan is 2900-3100 yuan/ton, and the price of fluorite in Jiangxi is 2900-3300 yuan/ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will decrease slightly in the later period.

Recent market trend of downstream refrigerant industry is poor, starting rate remains low, and demand for hydrofluoric acid has decreased. However, due to normal supply in the field, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined. As of the 15th day, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11 430 yuan/ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the domestic starting rate of hydrofluoric acid is 6. Chengdu, the company reflects that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, the market is poor in the near future, and some enterprises’ex-factory prices have been lowered. As of now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10500-11000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 10500-11500 yuan/ton. However, people in the field reflect the recent hydrofluoric acid prices. The acid market is not good, Business Analyst Chen Ling thinks the hydrofluoric acid market may slightly lower.

The price trend of aluminium fluoride products is temporarily stable, the supply on the market is normal, and the trading market is general. The quotation of aluminium fluoride from Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 11,000 yuan/ton. The quotation of aluminium fluoride from Shandong Luzeng Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10,800 yuan/ton. The quotation of aluminium fluoride from Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10,500 yuan/ton. The quotation of aluminium fluoride from Star Industrial Aluminum Fluoride quoted 9500 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of trichloromethane has risen slightly in Shandong. The ex-factory price of trichloromethane enterprises is about 2650 yuan/ton. The production start-up rate of enterprises is low. The 440,000 tons/year plant in Jinling, Shandong Province, has started normal operation. The 120,000 tons/year plant in Jinmao, Dongying, has been overhauled. The 220,000 tons/year plant in Luxi Chemical Industry has started 60% of the plant. The domestic trichloromethane production enterprises supply positive results. Often, inventory is low.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of on-site equipment is stable and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. Generally speaking, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain turbulent in the later period.

Price trends:

According to the data of business associations, the trend of domestic PA6 market was temporarily stable in the third week of August. Traders’mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Sino-Viscose was about 13933.33 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that at the beginning of the week.

2. Analysis of influencing factors:

Since August, the caprolactam liquid market has been steadily declining. This week, the turnover of caprolactam liquid sources in East China has declined. The upstream product cyclohexanone market is weak, the cost support is weakened; the downstream slice Market is light, the polymerization plant is losing some money, the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is not high, the caprolactam is dragged down by demand, and the price is lower. At present, more than 70% of caprolactam plants have been started, and the spot market supply has improved. At present, the profit is limited, spot delivery is weak, the future market may continue to be weak and stable, rigid adjustment; the weakening of caprolactam on PA6 cost support is limited, this week the domestic PA6 market trend is stable. Spot supply is more adequate, downstream demand follow-up improvement is limited, maintain just needed procurement. The news of the postponement of the US-China tariff policy is positive, and the confidence of domestic traders has improved, but the high-price single transaction is still difficult, and both sides of the trade are cautious.

3. Future market forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the third week of August PA6 upstream caprolactam steadily declined, weakly stable adjustment. The cost-side support for PA6 is weakened. The trade frictions between China and the United States released a mitigation signal to boost business confidence, but the downstream demand of PA6 has limited follow-up improvement, and trading is flat. The price of domestic PA6 market is stable for the time being, and it is expected that PA6 will be sorted out in a small way in the near future.

1. Commodity Name: Magnesium Ingot (9990)

2. Latest Price (2019.8.14): 15,750 yuan/ton

Magnesium ingots (99.9%, non-pickling, simple packaging) from the main producing areas in China are charged with cash tax as follows:

Fugu area ex-factory includes 15700-15800 yuan/ton of tax, Taiyuan area 15800-15950 yuan/ton of cash, Wenxi area 15900-16100 yuan/ton of cash and Ningxia area 15700-15850 yuan/ton of cash.

3. Analysis Points: Recently, the price of magnesium ingot has increased slightly. It is reported that most factories have fewer spot sources and less inventory pressure, which is the driving force to boost market prices. On the one hand, based on the release of orders in the previous export backlog, the demand has improved slightly, on the other hand, the supply side is now in the off-season of production, hot weather and plant equipment maintenance practices, it is expected that factory output will decline, the overall inventory of the factory is not large, and the willingness of the factory to bid is still in place.

4. Future market forecast: This week, the market turnover is good, pre-sale orders have been signed from time to time. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will be stable and strong in the near future. Later, it will focus on the actual market transactions and maintenance of magnesium plants.

On August 14, the PX Commodity Index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 14th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of the operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 3 US dollars/ton on August 13. The closing price is 774-776 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 793-795 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 13, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $57.10 per barrel, an increase of $2.17. Brent crude oil futures rose to $61.30 per barrel, an increase of $2.73. The rising trend of crude oil prices has provided some favorable support for downstream petrochemical products, while the price of p-xylene market has temporarily stabilized. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA price trend shocks 14 days, the average price in East China is around 5200-5300 yuan/ton, as of 13 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 92.5%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 85%, downstream production and sales rate has not changed much, but PTA market price trend shocks, expected later PX market price or The shock will be maintained.