Author Archives: lubon

Weak fundamentals and insufficient motivation for the continuous rise of PTA prices

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose slightly on January 26. The average market price in East China was 5322 yuan / ton, up 0.68% from the previous trading day and 39.77% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5410, up 156, or 2.97%.

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

In terms of supply, with the recent restart of multiple units, the industrial commencement has increased to more than 86%. The 3.3 million ton new unit of Yisheng new materials is planned to be commissioned at the end of January, and the PTA supply is expected to increase. However, two sets of PTA units in East China announced maintenance plans, which significantly boosted the market. Among them, Yisheng Ningbo 2 million ton PTA unit is planned to be overhauled in February; The 3.3 million T / a PTA plant of Yisheng new material is planned to be overhauled in February.

 

In addition, oil prices rebounded strongly on January 25, and WTI rose significantly, nearly 3%. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $85.60/barrel, up US $2.29 or 2.8%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.20/barrel, up US $1.93 or 2.2%. The main reason is that the supply side risk has boosted the oil price, the tension in Ukraine and Russia, the previous attack on the United Arab Emirates, the current risk has not been lifted, and it is difficult for OPEC to increase production.

 

With the arrival of the long Spring Festival holiday and the holiday of the terminal textile factory, the current situation is that the procurement is stopped, the preparation before the festival is coming to an end, and the demand is declining. In the continuous shutdown of dyeing factories and weaving factories, the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped to less than 13%, mainly focusing on the closing of early orders and being cautious in receiving new orders. At present, the idea of replenishing inventory is not strong and remains in a tepid state. The operating load of polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased to less than 80%, the quotation remained stable, and some factories promoted individual specifications.

 

Business analysts believe that some PTA units are planned to be overhauled to offset the new capacity to be put into operation, and the rebound cost of crude oil is increased, so it supports the strength of PTA prices. In the short term, PTA prices are greatly affected by costs. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of downstream polyester plants will further decline, the fundamentals are weak, and PTA continues to rise with insufficient power.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

The price of ammonium sulfate fell on January 25

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

 

Latest price: 1490 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: the price of ammonium sulfate fell on January 25, down 4.08% compared with the previous trading day. At present, the ammonium sulfate Market is divided and running, with ups and downs. Today, the market of coking grade ammonium sulfate is stable and the delivery of goods is smooth. The price of Hexin grade ammonium sulfate continued to decline, and the market inventory was low. The floor trading volume decreased, and traders mainly waited and saw. Due to the epidemic situation and the approaching Spring Festival, logistics and transportation are tight.

 

Future forecast: the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

On January 24, the price of potassium chloride in China was temporarily stable

January 24 domestic price of potassium chloride in China Commodity Name: potassium chloride

 

Latest price (January 24): 3190.00 yuan / ton

 

On January 24, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on January 21. The market price of 60% white potassium in domestic potassium is about 3900-4000 yuan / ton. The price of 62% white potassium in the port increased by about 4200-4300 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade was about 4100 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton. The recent market situation of downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate has increased slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

 

Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly, with the ex factory price of about 3200 yuan / ton and the market price of about 4000 yuan / ton. Lattice temporary stability

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Where will the PTA market go in 2022 without reducing the supply pressure?

Driven by the cost of crude oil, PTA’s own production reduction and the positive impact of destocking driven by the improvement of supply and demand, the domestic PTA spot market showed an upward trend in 2021. According to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of domestic spot market was 4963 yuan / ton as of December 31, 2021, up 36.76% compared with January 1, 2021. The highest point in the year was 5543 yuan / ton on October 11, and the lowest point was 3592 yuan / ton on January 1.

 

Stannous Sulphate

The annual price trend can be roughly divided into three stages:

 

From January to July, unilateral shocks rose. The international oil price continues to rise, and the cost side has become the core factor driving the market upward; In addition, with the high year-on-year growth of terminal textile and garment export and domestic sales, the downstream polyester and weaving start-up continued to operate at a high level, and the demand side performed better. At the same time, the frequent maintenance of PTA factory after March, the tightening of spot supply from mainstream suppliers, the arrival of typhoon at the end of July and the port closure led to the continuous improvement of PTA supply and demand side. During this period, PTA realized de inventory for six consecutive months.

 

After a brief correction of PTA following the oil price in August, PTA resumed its upward trend in late September, boosted by cost support and reduced supply. In early October, Jiaxing petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical and yishanhua shut down a total of 10 million tons of PTA units, resulting in the operation rate of PTA industry once falling to about 60%, resulting in the continuous rise of PTA price, which reached a new high in the year on October 11 and near the high in the past two years.

 

Since late October, due to the impact of power rationing in main production areas such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the start of polyester and weaving in the downstream has declined significantly, and the demand side is significantly weaker than that in the first half of the year. This year’s peak season performance was lower than expected, and the performance of new orders received by weaving enterprises was dismal. With the gradual relaxation of the dual control of energy consumption and production restriction, the price of superimposed raw materials fell sharply, and the terminal enterprises placed an order to wait and see. Domestic demand stalls in advance and external demand is delayed. Although the PTA plant stopped and reduced production, it did not last long, and the market supply and demand weakened and accumulated again. Near the end of the year, although restrained by demand, PTA prices stopped falling and showed a slight recovery under the strong impetus of crude oil.

 

After PTA prices hit a record low in April 2020 and rebounded to the bottom in 2021, where will 2022 go? Will it continue to warm up or fall back?

 

Overcapacity and supply pressure remain

 

In 2021, a total of 8.2 million tons of domestic PTA capacity will be added, while PTA will still be put into operation in 2022. It is expected that 14 million tons of new capacity will be put into operation in the whole year. The downstream polyester is planned to increase the production capacity by 7.1 million tons, but the unit is numerous and scattered, and the concentration is lower than that of the upstream raw materials, so there is a large difference between the plan and the actual progress. From the actual production of polyester in recent three years, it is basically stable at the level of 4 million tons, which is far lower than the growth rate of upstream PTA. Therefore, the PTA supply side will be more severe, and the old devices will lose competitiveness in the future. In 2020 and 2021, the parking capacity will be increased by 2.19 million tons and 5.44 million tons respectively. The market pattern will be redistributed, and the degree of PTA overcapacity will become more and more serious.

 

Looking at the inventory, at the beginning of 2021, especially in January and February, the downstream polyester enterprises stopped production and had holidays due to the Spring Festival holiday, which made the PTA inventory accumulate rapidly during this period; In March, as downstream enterprises gradually resumed production and the market was optimistic about future demand and actively purchased raw materials, PTA social inventory entered a continuous downward trend, and the inventory fell all the way from the peak of more than 4 million tons to around 3 million tons; Since May, the domestic PTA social inventory has fluctuated slightly around 3 million tons. By the end of 2021, the PTA social inventory is about 3.5 million tons, but it is still high in recent years.

 

The cost side has a high probability of bad downlink drive

 

In 2021, crude oil has made rapid progress and surged to a new high in recent years. In 2021, WTI’s overall annual increase reached 55.39%, and Brent’s crude oil increased by 50.65%. The core logic of the rise in oil prices in 2021 is basically highly related to the evolution trend of the epidemic. In addition, under the macro background of inflation expectations, supply tightening and economic recovery also provide impetus for the rise of oil prices. In 2022, the overall supply side of the crude oil market is likely to be negative, with strong downward drive. The global crude oil supply will continue to grow and close to the level before the epidemic. The negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement are restarted, Iranian crude oil may return to the market, OPEC (OPEC) also normally implements the production increase plan, and multinational countries release strategic stocks, resulting in marginal increase in supply, which may lead to greater supply pressure. The Omicron mutant has a potential impact on crude oil demand, and the global crude oil supply and demand pattern has weakened.

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

In 2021, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil price and the rise of external market price, the price trend of domestic PX market increased sharply. The average price at the beginning of the year was 4700 yuan / ton and the average price at the end of the year was 6700 yuan / ton, with an increase of 42.55% for the whole year. However, it is unlikely to continue to rise in 2022. It is estimated that the domestic planned new capacity will exceed 14 million tons in 2022, and the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced. Although the domestic supply and demand has improved, the overall supply of PX in Asia has been surplus. There is great pressure on PX exporting countries such as Japan and South Korea. It is very likely to sell profits to China and compete with domestic enterprises. The PX production loss will continue, and negative profits will become the norm.

 

The recovery trend of weak terminal demand is expected to continue

 

In 2021, the average operating rate of comprehensive start-up of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69%, an increase of 8 percentage points over 2020. The orders in the first half of the year were good, at the historical level in the same period, and the orders in the second half of the year were general. With the superposition of the power limitation in some areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the weaving processing rate remained weak as a whole.

 

From the perspective of the terminal textile industry, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to November 2021, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textile products reached 1236.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. The domestic demand for textiles and clothing market has recovered steadily, mainly due to the low base effect in 2020. In the first half of 2021, domestic end textile consumption maintained a rapid growth, but the sales growth rate dropped significantly from July and August, continued to decline for many months, and some months were lower than the same period last year. Overall, the domestic demand market shows a weak recovery, and the future trend is expected to continue.

 

In terms of exports, China’s textile and clothing exports in 2021 reached 315.47 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, surpassing 2014, reaching a record high and achieving “beyond expectation” growth. The reason for the outstanding export performance still lies in the epidemic situation, and the domestic continues to supplement the lack of international supply. A round of replenishment has been carried out overseas in 2021, but it has not returned to the level before the epidemic. It is expected that in 2022, especially in some Southeast Asian countries, the supply will gradually recover, the substitution effect will weaken, and the domestic textile and garment exports will face a decline.

 

Based on the above, Xia Ting, an analyst of business society, believes that the short-term PTA will still run strong due to the upward boost of crude oil. According to the 730 moving average chart of business club, since December 12, 2021, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average to start the upward trend. At present, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. It is estimated on January 22, 2022 that the probability of operation situation change (i.e. the 7-day moving average crosses the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 24.57%. In the medium and long term, the crude oil supply is bad and the cost support will decline. In addition, all products of PTA industry are still in the production capacity expansion cycle, the expansion speed of the upstream is much faster than that of the downstream, and the end demand continues to grow restoratively. Therefore, the PTA supply pressure will not decrease in 2022, and the overall price trend is weak.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

On January 20, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose

On January 20, the rare earth index was 860 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 14.00% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 217.34% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

 

The trend of domestic rare earth index is rising, and the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series is rising. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 920000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 1127500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 915000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 15000 yuan / ton to 1035000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1170000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal neodymium is 20000 yuan / ton to 1260000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide is 3 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.98 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.8 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market is temporarily stable, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market rises, the price of terbium series rises, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will rise in the future.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

On January 19, the domestic price of natural rubber rose but failed, and fell back in the afternoon

Trade name: natural rubber (domestic standard I)

 

Latest price (1-18): 13930 yuan / ton

 

Data monitoring shows that on January 19, Shanghai glue continued to fluctuate, with a large upward range in the session, and the closing range narrowed to less than 50 yuan / ton. The spot glue was adjusted with the session. According to the latest data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers (ACEA), the registration of passenger cars in the EU decreased by 22.8% to 795295 in December 2021, the sixth consecutive month. Most EU countries have experienced double-digit declines. Overall, in 2021, EU passenger car sales decreased by 2.4% year-on-year to 9.7 million, which is the result of the negative impact of chip shortage on the annual automobile production, especially in the second half of 2021.

 

Future forecast: at present, it is in a period of weak supply and demand, and the spot price is relatively strong; Affected by the holidays and epidemic situation, especially the transportation vehicles sent to the region in many places and the attention paid by drivers to epidemic situation protection, some enterprises have taken holidays in advance, and the procurement demand is blocked. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival. Although the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 114% year-on-year in December, the latest report said that the sales volume of passenger vehicles in EU decreased by 2.4% year-on-year to 9.7 million vehicles in 2021, which was the result of the negative impact of chip shortage on the annual automobile production.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

On January 18, the price of ammonium sulfate was stable

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

 

Latest price: 1500 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: the price of ammonium sulfate was stable on January 18, compared with the previous trading day. The price of ammonium sulfate is stable today, and the new orders in the venue are limited. Coking grade ammonium sulfate operates in low-level vibration, and high-grade ammonium sulfate is reduced in vibration. Traders are mainly on the sidelines. Due to the epidemic situation, the logistics in some areas was blocked, the trend of urea was weak, and the negative factors increased.

 

Future forecast: in the short term, the price range of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate and consolidate.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Domestic neopentyl glycol rose 3.12% (1.8-1.14) this week

1、 Price trend

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly this week, and the average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol increased from 16020.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16520.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3.12%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol increased this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17500 yuan / ton, which increased by 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol over the weekend was 14560 yuan / ton. Compared with last weekend, the quotation was temporarily stable. The distribution price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17500 yuan / ton, which increased by 500 yuan / ton compared with last weekend

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market increased from 14400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16833.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 2433.33 yuan / ton, or 16.90%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose sharply, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in late January may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Cost driven PTA prices continued to rise

Since January, domestic PTA prices have maintained an upward trend, and the cost push up market has continued. According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of January 15, the average price of domestic PTA market was 5213 yuan / ton, up 5.04% from the beginning of the month and 33.68% year-on-year.

 

In January, the maintenance of domestic PTA units increased. Up to now, the industry has started around 77%, down about 3 percentage points from the beginning of the month. However, the units of Yisheng Dalian and hailun Petrochemical are facing restart at the weekend, and the supply is expected to recover next week. In addition, in terms of new production capacity, Hengyi Petrochemical said on the interactive platform on January 14 that the 3 million ton PTA project of Yisheng new material 2# line has been basically completed and has not been put into operation yet.

 

In the crude oil market, the international oil price hit a new high in nearly two months. As of January 13, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $82.12/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.47/barrel. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight. Investors believe that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks and support the oil price rebound.

 

The favorable cost boosted the downstream polyester market, followed by a slight upward trend, and the polyester products increased by 1-5%. However, at present, the Chinese New Year atmosphere of terminal textile enterprises is getting stronger and stronger. Factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continue to reduce their burdens. Many factories plan to stop work and have holidays. The order situation is poor. New orders for domestic trade are rarely heard, and new orders for foreign trade are also significantly reduced. Watch and place orders carefully.

 

According to the analysis of business agency, the recent PTA trend is dominated by cost, and the upward shift of the focus of international oil price will continue to drive PTA out of a wave of rising market. However, in terms of PTA’s own fundamentals, the device is facing restart, supply pressurization, and the load of terminal loom decreases significantly, and the expectation of weakening supply and demand still exists. PTA is expected to gradually weaken and adjust.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

On January 13, domestic PVC prices rose

1、 Price trend

 
Latest price (January 13): 8280 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, the average domestic spot price of pvcc5 was 8280 yuan / ton on January 13, up 0.24% compared with the previous day, and the enterprise quotation increased slightly, about 50-100 yuan / ton. The futures rebound has driven the spot market. At present, the price of pvc5 calcium carbide method remains in the range of 8000-8600 yuan / ton, and the raw material price has temporarily stabilized to around 4570 yuan / ton.

 

The PVC market is expected to adjust in a narrow range.

http://www.lubonchem.com/