According to data from Shengyi Society, the rise of non-ferrous metal tin was particularly prominent in the commodity market on February 27th. The early tin price was reported at 431640 yuan/ton, up 14.06% from 378420 yuan/ton before the holiday. The stock market linkage effect is obvious, with both Tin Industry Co., Ltd. and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit up today.

The significant increase in tin prices is driven by a combination of tight supply, explosive demand, low inventory, and capital resonance.
On the supply side, the resumption of production in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar fell short of expectations, while about 70% of China’s tin concentrate relies on imports from Myanmar; Combined with the tightening of export quota control and slowing down of approvals in Indonesia, the world’s second largest tin exporting country, the increase in overseas supply continues to be restricted. Data shows that in January 2026, global tin ore production decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, and China’s tin concentrate imports decreased by 15% month on month.
On the demand side, market expectations continue to improve: the amount of tin used for a single AI server is 3-5 times that of traditional models, HBM、 Advanced packaging significantly increases unit tin consumption; New energy vehicles use three times more tin per vehicle than traditional fuel vehicles; Due to the strong demand for electronic soldering and semiconductor packaging, downstream stocking is active and traders are reluctant to sell, further driving up prices.
At the same time, the attribute of tin as a key strategic metal has been re recognized by the market, attracting speculation and allocation funds to enter, driving the price of tin ingot futures to strengthen.
From the perspective of trading logic, changes in commodity prices directly affect the profits of related listed companies, and commodity price increases usually lead stock prices by 5/10/20/30 days. Tracking the trend of commodity prices helps to capture the layout opportunities of cyclical stocks in advance.
Business Society Stock Connect Value Cycle Stock Selection Tool, which can rely on the N-day rise of commodities to screen hot varieties and explore investment opportunities in value cycle stocks; It is also possible to capture key buying signals for cyclical stocks ahead of quarterly and annual reports through the data of commodity price increases during the cycle.

Cobalt prices fluctuated upward after the holiday

According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Business Society: On February 26, the cobalt price was 440,100 yuan/ton, fluctuating up from 425,300 yuan/ton on February 14, marking a 3.48% increase; compared to February 1′s price of 444,800 yuan/ton, it first fell and then rose, showing a 1.06% decrease. After the Spring Festival, with the recovery of new energy vehicle sales and rising demand in the cobalt market, coupled with reduced supply, the cobalt price fluctuated upward in the post-holiday period.
Cobalt market supply outlook
On February 18, Sumitomo Corporation announced that its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down due to damage to its facilities from Tropical Cyclone Gazu, which struck the island last week. Ambatovy, owned by Sumitomo, produced approximately 28,000 metric tons of nickel and 2,500 tons of cobalt in 2024, with the state-owned Korea Mining and Reconstruction Corporation (KOMIR) involved. The suspension of cobalt production in Madagascar is expected to reduce market supply.
Cobalt market demand trends
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2026, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 2.5% and 0.1%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 40.3% of total automobile sales. Data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance showed that in terms of power battery installations: in January, domestic power battery installations totaled 42.0 GWh, a 57.2% month-on-month decline but a 8.4% year-on-year increase. Among this, lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) battery installations reached 9.4 GWh, accounting for 22.3% of total installations, down 48.6% month-on-month but up 9.6% year-on-year. Although new energy vehicle production and sales saw slight growth in January, the declining share of NMC battery installations, coupled with the promotion of low-cobalt batteries, has led to reduced expectations for cobalt market demand growth.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Business Society data analysts believe that the slow growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, coupled with declining demand expectations in the cobalt market, the shutdown of cobalt mines in Madagascar, and reduced supply in the cobalt market, along with post-February holiday restocking by domestic downstream customers, led to a temporary rise in cobalt demand. Overall, supported by demand and reduced supply, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the future.

The price of silver showed a high amplitude and high volatility trend before the holiday, and the market has already digested the weight of its price fluctuations in advance; On February 25th, the rare earth sector experienced a major outbreak, with Baosteel Group and Northern Rare Earth rising by the daily limit, while China Rare Metals approached the daily limit, and China Rare Earth also saw a significant increase.

Previously, the rare earth market had already experienced two rounds of upward trend. According to the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index, rare earth prices have risen twice from July to September 2025 and January 2026 to present. Among them, rare earth related stocks rose violently in sync during the price increase period from July to September 2025, and the convergence effect was significant; However, the second wave of rare earth price increases that began in January 2026 showed a certain lag in the upward trend of related stocks before the holiday compared to the rise in rare earth prices.
From the perspective of market trading logic, changes in commodity prices directly affect the profit performance of corresponding listed companies, and commodity price increases usually lead stock price increases by 5/10/20/30 days. By paying attention to commodity price trends, buying opportunities for stocks can be discovered in advance.
The value cycle stock selection tool of Business Society Stock Connect can rely on the price increase of commodities within n days to screen hot commodities and explore investment opportunities in value cycle stocks; At the same time, it is also possible to capture buying signals for value cycle stocks by releasing commodity price increase data in advance of the quarterly and annual reports of listed companies during the quarterly reporting cycle. According to the stock news of Shengyi Society, after the holiday, four products in the bulk commodity market, namely silver, dysprosium ferroalloy, dysprosium oxide, and dysprosium metal, showed outstanding gains, with gains exceeding 5%. The significant increase in prices of heavy rare earth related categories further ignited the market’s performance expectations for the rare earth industry in the first quarter of 2026.

As of 14:15 in 2026, the main PTA contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen by more than 3% to 5390 yuan/ton. The spot market followed the rise, and according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5333 yuan/ton on February 24th, an increase of 2.93% compared to the previous trading day.

During the holiday period, crude oil prices showed strong performance, providing favorable support for the cost side. The market is still concerned about the uncertainty of US Iran relations, coupled with the lack of substantial progress in the Russia Ukraine peace talks, and the rise in international oil prices during the Spring Festival. On February 19th, WTI、 Brent crude oil futures closed up 4.59% and 4.35% respectively; On February 20th, the two oil prices hit $67.03 and $71.66 per barrel respectively, setting a new high in nearly half a year, with a cumulative increase of over 5% in the past two days.
In terms of self supply, during the Spring Festival holiday, Yisheng New Materials’ 3.6 million ton PTA plant was temporarily shut down on February 24th due to unforeseen circumstances and is currently recovering. The industry’s production capacity is operating at around 70%, which has temporarily halted the pace of PTA inventory accumulation. In 2026, there are currently no plans for new PTA plants to be put into operation in China, and the industry’s capacity expansion has entered a “window period”. At the same time, the expansion pace of downstream polyester is still continuing, and it is expected to show a trend of tight supply and demand.
On the demand side, in the short term, due to the support of holiday costs, downstream polyester factories have raised their quotations to varying degrees. The terminal market is still in holiday mode. The operating rate of the pre holiday stretch, weaving, and printing and dyeing industries has significantly decreased to around 120%, while the load of the polyester industry has also fallen to around 76%. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, strong expectations for the “Golden Three and Silver Four” are still in place. In early March, domestic textile and clothing enterprises will see a concentrated resumption of work and production, and terminal orders are expected to gradually recover, thereby driving the steady increase in polyester load and driving PTA essential procurement.
Business analysts believe that crude oil prices will continue to strengthen during the holiday, and after the holiday, various products in the PTA industry chain will mainly follow suit. Short term oil prices will continue to be dominated by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks. Against the backdrop of supply disruptions not completely subsiding, geopolitical risks continuing to rise, and strong expectations of OPEC suspending production increases, oil prices may experience wide fluctuations in the near future. In the downstream polyester market, due to the gradual resumption of production and work by terminal enterprises, the operating rate has recovered, and there is a certain demand for replenishing raw materials. The continuous accumulation of PTA social inventory will be alleviated. It is expected that the PTA market will maintain a strong expectation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on February 5th was 6915 yuan/ton, and on February 10th it was 6790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8916 yuan/ton on February 5th and 8733 yuan/ton on February 10th, a decrease of 2.06%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on February 5th was 7392 yuan/ton, and on February 10th it was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%.

Recently, polyethylene has shown an overall trend of weak volatility and light pre holiday trading.
Supply side: There are still a large number of new facilities planned to be put into operation in 2026, and the pattern of oversupply in the medium and long term is difficult to change.
Demand side: Seasonal off-season with light trading volume. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are gradually shutting down for holidays, with a particularly significant decline in the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film. Logistics are gradually being shut down, and pre holiday purchases have basically ended. The market is dominated by rigid demand, with light new orders.
On the cost side: Crude oil is fluctuating and the support is unstable.
In the short term, weak demand dominates, and cost and geopolitical factors provide disturbances, leading to a narrow range of fluctuations in polyethylene.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices soared in February. On February 9th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 703 points, up 59 points from the beginning of the month, down 30.19% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 159.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

In early February, the domestic light rare earth market prices soared all the way, and there was a strong bullish sentiment in the domestic light rare earth market raw materials. Macro news flowed out, and the supply and demand pattern of praseodymium neodymium products became tighter. Due to the expected continued tight supply caused by the shutdown of a separation plant after the year, and supported by factors such as active procurement and replenishment by some major magnetic material manufacturers, the bullish sentiment in the market continued to heat up. The activity of inquiries in the praseodymium neodymium market significantly increased, and the spot price of praseodymium neodymium significantly rose. In January 2026, rare earth producers raised the trading price of rare earth concentrates for the first quarter to 26834 yuan/ton, marking the sixth consecutive price increase and directly pushing up the cost center of downstream products such as praseodymium neodymium oxide. The outbreak of rigid demand and the vigorous development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances have driven an increase in orders from downstream magnetic material factories. The global supply-demand gap for praseodymium neodymium oxide is expected to widen to 9000 tons by 2026, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen, leading to a continuous rise in the light rare earth market. However, due to the significant fluctuations in current prices, the actual transaction situation downstream has not been able to keep up with it.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been high, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. The bullish sentiment in the market is strong, and the praseodymium neodymium market continues to rise; In addition, the long-term trend of increasing demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other end products remains unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets in the end market is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream games, the light rare earth market still has an upward trend.
Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all shown an upward trend. As of the 10th, the price of neodymium oxide was 872500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.09% in the first half of the year; The price of neodymium metal is 1.065 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 12.40% in early February; The price of praseodymium oxide is 845000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.24%; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.03 million yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 10.16%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 985000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.65%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 815000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.95% in the first half of the year.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on February 9, 2026, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 9650 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as February 1. Compared with January 1 (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 96520 yuan/ton), the price increased by 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%.

Loose supply and demand. In early February, the silicon metal # 441 market first rose and then fell, oscillating and running
In early February (February 1st to February 9th), the domestic market price of silicon metal 441 # showed a fluctuating trend of “first rising and then falling”. From February 1st to 3rd, the market trading was average, and the market price of metal silicon 441 # remained stable at 9650 yuan/ton. On February 4th, some regions experienced a reduction in supply, resulting in a narrow increase in the price of silicon metal by 10-50 yuan/ton. On February 9th, the supply and demand remained loose, and the prices of some grades of silicon metal were narrowly lowered. As of February 9th, the reference market price for silicon metal 441 # in East China was 9300-9600 yuan/ton, while in Kunming, the gold price was reduced
fundamental analysis
On the supply side: Currently, as the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate in southwestern production areas (Sichuan, Yunnan) remains low, with most manufacturers shutting down their furnaces and production, leading to a contraction in supply. Due to losses, some enterprises in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions have carried out early maintenance or reduced production, further tightening market supply and supporting a slight increase in market prices in early February. However, supply transmission has remained average, and the market situation has fluctuated downward.
In terms of demand: In the early stage, some downstream enterprises prepared a certain amount of inventory before the holiday to cope with production stoppages, which enabled the market to maintain basic price stability during the holiday period. However, currently, downstream pre holiday stocking has basically ended, and downstream industries such as polysilicon and organosilicon have shown relatively weak demand, resulting in low purchasing willingness and suppressing price upward space.
Market analysis in the future
With the end of the Spring Festival holiday in late February, downstream enterprises will gradually resume work and production, and procurement demand is expected to steadily release. However, it may take some time for enterprises in the main production areas to resume work, and the market supply will still be tight in the short term. It is expected that the price of silicon metal will continue to fluctuate and rise after the holiday.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method for producing pyrite type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market has been operating steadily this week, with an average market price of 13900 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market has been operating steadily. At present, titanium dioxide companies still face significant cost pressure, but demand from end-users is poor, and market shipments are relatively average. Market stability is the main focus before the holiday, and the atmosphere in the market is relatively stagnant, so it is advisable to wait and see. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 13200-14300 yuan/ton; The price of Ruiti type is around 12200-12800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
3、 Future forecast
The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market is currently stable this week. The cost of titanium dioxide enterprises is under pressure, and their quotations are firm, but downstream wait-and-see sentiment is evident, with a focus on essential needs. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will remain strong in the short term, with actual transaction prices subject to negotiation.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the 6th, copper prices were reported at 100035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 31.01%.
In the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 6 and risen by 6, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 180575 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 3.4% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, ADP employment in the United States only increased by 22000 in January, and market expectations of a Fed interest rate cut cooled. The US dollar index rebounded nearly 98%, suppressing copper prices denominated in US dollars.
On the supply side, factors such as declining production capacity of old mines, long development cycles of new mines (average 7-10 years), and rising ESG costs will limit the growth of copper mine production. The global supply and demand gap for copper concentrate may widen to 500000 tons by 2025, supporting the upward shift of the copper price center.
On the demand side: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic copper processing enterprises are gradually entering a shutdown and holiday period, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as wire and cable, copper pipes, and copper strips continue to decline. This week, the operating rate of domestic copper rod enterprises has dropped to 58%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the peak in January. Although some companies have engaged in “pre holiday stocking” behavior, the recent decline in copper prices (down more than 5% from the January high) has not significantly stimulated procurement demand.
In summary, from a long-term perspective, copper prices still have a solid foundation for upward movement. In terms of overseas mines, it is common for old mines to close and new mines to be delayed in production, resulting in tight supply of copper concentrate and extremely low processing fees, which fully indicates the relative scarcity of copper resources. At the same time, the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the rise of artificial intelligence have led to a sustained increase in demand for copper consumption. Therefore, the current correction in copper prices can be seen as a brief pause after a surge, and it is expected to show a fluctuating trend at high levels in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the latest benchmark price data from Business Society, sulfur prices have experienced a clear downward adjustment this week:
On February 1st, the price was relatively high at 4210.00 yuan/ton.
February 5th: The benchmark price has dropped to 4053.33 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of the month, it decreased by 3.72%, and on February 5th alone, it dropped by 0.82%.
This price correction is mainly the result of the combined action of two short-term market behaviors:
On December 2nd, the main producer Shandong Dongming Petrochemical lowered its sulfur ex factory quotation by 200 yuan/ton at once. This magnitude of price adjustment directly affects market confidence and increases bearish sentiment.
As the Spring Festival approaches, the pre holiday stocking of downstream factories has basically ended. At the same time, facing historically high prices, buyers have generally turned to wait-and-see and adopted an “on-demand procurement” strategy, resulting in a lack of sustained buying support in the market.
2、 Market situation
Although prices have declined this week, it needs to be viewed in a larger context, as this decline occurred after a sustained surge in the previous month. In January, sulfur prices rose overall, with a significant monthly increase. At present, the price of around 4053 yuan/ton is still in the “one-year high” range according to the statistics of Business Society. This reflects that the fundamental support of the market is still solid.
3、 Future prospects:
Overall, the fundamental factors supporting the long-term high sulfur prices, such as global supply shortages and new demand from the new energy sector, have not changed. Therefore, this week’s downturn is more likely to be a short-term technical correction rather than a reversal of the trend.
It is expected that the market will enter a “high-level oscillation” stage before and after the Spring Festival. The next direction of prices will mainly depend on the intensity of downstream factories’ demand for resuming work and replenishing inventory after the Spring Festival, as well as the production progress of important Indonesian nickel wet smelting projects.