Recently, the melamine market as a whole has shown a narrow upward trend. As of January 27th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5637.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to last week (5625.50 yuan/ton).

The recent slight increase in prices is mainly supported by the following factors:
Rigid cost support: The price of urea, the main raw material, remained high in January, significantly reducing the profit margin of production enterprises and enhancing their willingness to raise prices. As of January 28th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1747.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.30% compared to the beginning of this month (1725.00 yuan/ton).
Tightening supply: In January, many domestic production enterprises arranged for equipment shutdown and maintenance or reduced load operation, resulting in a decrease in the overall operating rate of the industry and a tightening of market spot supply.
Urgent procurement and export support: Domestic downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings generally adopt an on-demand procurement strategy. At the same time, export demand remains at a healthy level, playing a stabilizing role in the domestic market.
Short term market outlook
At present, there are mixed long and short factors in the market, and it is expected that prices will maintain a high volatility pattern before the Spring Festival. The high cost support and relatively tight supply constitute the fundamental support for market prices. Whether downstream industries will start centralized stocking before the Spring Festival is the key to breaking the current market balance and driving price increases. If the equipment that is shut down for maintenance after the holiday is concentrated and quickly resumed production, it may increase the supply pressure.
In summary, the melamine market has shown a slight increase recently, driven by cost pressures and supply tightening. Whether the future price can further rise requires close attention to the downstream stocking situation before the Spring Festival.

Aluminum prices rose by 7.97% in January

Aluminum prices remained strong in January and have recently experienced a slight decline. As of January 28, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 24265 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.97% from the market average price of 22473.33 yuan/ton on January 1; Compared to the high point of the month (1.14), the market average price is 24673.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65%
In January 2026, aluminum prices continued the strong momentum of 2025, with a strong upward trend in early January, repeatedly reaching new highs. The core of this trend is due to three main factors: rigid supply constraints, structural growth in demand, and resonance between macro and financial factors, coupled with low inventory and rising costs, forming a pattern of “easy rise but difficult fall”. However, when aluminum prices reach a new high, it is not advisable to blindly chase after them. The core lies in the accumulation of inventory during the off-season, downstream negative feedback, macroeconomic policy variables, supply elasticity, and capital profit taking, which add multiple pressures. The vulnerability of high prices increases, and the risk of a pullback is significantly greater than chasing high returns. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. Fundamentals: Accumulated inventory during the off-season+weak downstream delivery, exacerbating negative feedback
Before the Spring Festival, downstream processing enterprises gradually took a break, and the traditional off-season of consumption combined with high prices suppressed purchasing intentions. Aluminum ingot warehouses continued to accumulate, with domestic warehouses of about 796000 tons as of January 28, nearly 800000 tons compared to last week’s cumulative warehouses of 28000 tons, higher than the same period last year. Spot futures contracts were discounted and widened, highlighting downstream wait-and-see sentiment.
Aluminum rod processing fees have turned negative, small and medium-sized processing plants have reduced production/stopped production, terminal demand transmission is not smooth, real estate is weak, automobile orders are overdrawn, traditional demand is difficult to sustain high prices, and only emerging demand such as new energy is difficult to support alone.
2. Supply side: Potential increase and expected resumption of production, gap or narrowing
The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, but if Indonesia’s new production capacity lands faster than expected and European electricity prices fall, it will drive some aluminum plants to resume production, increase global supply, and narrow the supply-demand gap.
The marginal adjustment of environmental policies and the easing of overseas geopolitical tensions may release idle production capacity. The tight supply is not absolutely rigid, and high prices may stimulate companies to accelerate their resumption/expansion plans.
3. Macro: Policy shift and economic recovery uncertainty, suppressing metal prices
If the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut is delayed or not as strong as expected, the strengthening of the US dollar will directly suppress industrial metal prices, and the slowing pace of global economic recovery will drag down aluminum demand in the manufacturing industry.
The weak recovery of the domestic economy and the slower than expected stabilization of the real estate market make it difficult to implement incremental policies to support the sustained rise in aluminum prices. If macroeconomic sentiment cools down, capital outflows will trigger a temporary decline in spot prices.
4. Funds and Emotions: High level profit taking and increased volatility risk
After the aluminum price hit a new high, the willingness of speculative funds to profit and leave the market has increased, and market sentiment is easily affected by the linkage of sector trends.
5. Cost and Valuation: Price deviates from fundamentals, with a pullback resulting in higher cost-effectiveness
The cost of electrolytic aluminum, including taxes, is about 16200 yuan/ton. Although there is cost support, the current price has deviated significantly from the cost, and there is more room for high-level adjustment than upward adjustment. The demand for hedging by aluminum ingot manufacturers has increased.
Although global explicit inventory is low, structural shortages are difficult to support unlimited price increases. If inventory accumulates beyond expectations, it will break the pattern of “easy to rise but difficult to fall”.

In summary, behind the high aluminum prices is a game of “strong supply expectations” and “weak demand reality”. Short term accumulation, downstream negative feedback, macroeconomic variables and other factors all point to the risk of a pullback, and the cost-effectiveness of chasing high and hoarding is extremely low.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of light rare earths in the domestic market has been rising recently. On January 26th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 595 points, up 13 points from yesterday, a decrease of 40.91% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 119.56% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all shown an upward trend. As of the 26th, the price of neodymium oxide was 722500 yuan/ton, with a 2.21% increase on the 5th; The price of neodymium metal is 852500 yuan/ton, with a 2.40% increase on the 5th; The price of praseodymium oxide is 695000 yuan/ton, with a 2.96% increase on the 5th; The price of praseodymium metal is 875000 yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 3.86%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 840000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.82%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 695000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.83%.
Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, and there is a strong bullish sentiment in the domestic light rare earth market raw materials. Macro news has flowed out, and the supply and demand pattern of praseodymium neodymium products has tightened, exacerbating market bullish expectations. Under the combined effect of insufficient market supply and bullish sentiment, the spot price of praseodymium neodymium has significantly risen. The booming development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances has driven an increase in orders from downstream magnetic material factories. However, the demand from magnetic material enterprises is not sufficient to support such high metal prices, resulting in poor actual transaction performance.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is not good, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. The supply-demand imbalance of praseodymium neodymium series products is evident, and the praseodymium neodymium market continues to rise; In addition, the long-term trend of increasing demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other end products remains unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets in the end market is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream games, the light rare earth market will maintain a high oscillation state.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PTA market has been fluctuating and rising recently. As of January 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5341 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.63% compared to January 19th. The expectation of PX spring inspection on the cost side has triggered a tense supply atmosphere, and the downstream polyester industry is steadily expanding its capacity to release rigid demand. Driven by both cost and demand, coupled with the positive effects of zero new additions and clearance of outdated production capacity on the supply side, the supply and demand pattern in the PTA market has improved, driving up the PTA market.

In the PX market, the concentrated maintenance in spring further exacerbates the tight supply pattern of PX. The second quarter will usher in a peak period of global PX maintenance, with a planned maintenance capacity of over 7.6 million tons in China and equipment maintenance in regions such as Japan and South Korea. It is expected that the overall supply reduction will reach 5%. Domestically, in the first quarter, there are planned maintenance plans for facilities such as Sinopec and Zhejiang Petrochemical, and the expectation of supply contraction has driven PX to maintain good performance, while cost drivers continue to strengthen.
In terms of self supply, PTA plant maintenance has increased under low processing fees, and the current PTA industry operating rate is around 75%. It is expected that the PTA maintenance capacity will exceed 12 million tons in the first quarter, and 27 million tons in the second quarter, accounting for over 40% of the total production capacity. And by 2026, the PTA industry itself will enter a capacity vacuum period, with no new capacity added and further supply contraction.
In the short term, with the seasonal weakening of terminal demand, downstream polyester production reduction efforts have increased, and the terminal weaving load has accelerated to 48%. Factories have begun to concentrate on holidays, mainly to digest raw materials and stock up. With the rapid rise of raw materials, there is a passive replenishment behavior. In the future, nearly 5 million tons of new production capacity are planned to be put into operation in the polyester industry by 2026, with a growth rate of 5.2%. The steady expansion of the polyester industry’s capacity will still promote the growth of PTA demand.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, there is still support on the cost side, but downstream polyester factories will gradually reduce production during the Spring Festival, which will drag down the demand side and constrain the upward trend of PTA. In the medium to long term, as the PTA production capacity concentration cycle comes to an end, processing fees will gradually improve, so long-term expectations are still preferred.

1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first fell and then rose this week. As of the 23rd, copper prices were reported at 100920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 34.66%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 6 and risen by 6, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has significantly increased, with 168250 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 17.18% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the struggle for independence of the Federal Reserve and the rebound and strengthening of the US dollar index still bring certain pressure to the metal market, with copper prices under pressure.
Supply side: BHP has raised its copper production guidance, indicating growth potential on the supply side. Copper inventories in the London and Shanghai stock markets continue to rise, with copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reaching a 9-month high, reflecting the low purchasing willingness of physical buyers under high copper prices. However, the joint production restrictions and shutdowns in major mining areas in South America, as well as domestic capacity adjustments due to cost issues, continue to tighten raw material supply.
On the demand side: The demand side presents a dual situation of ice and fire. The transformation of new energy and AI infrastructure are like two torches, driving the growth of copper consumption. Electric vehicles and data centers have a higher demand for copper than traditional fields. With the continuous growth of global sales of new energy vehicles and the acceleration of AI data center construction, the application demand for copper in related fields is constantly increasing, as if it is a hopeful oasis. However, traditional sectors such as real estate investment have experienced a severe decline, like a dry land, dragging down overall demand and causing uneven development on the demand side.
Overall, from the perspective of the global market landscape, the supply of copper is in a tight state. However, domestic industrial buyers have chosen to wait and see due to high copper prices, and the deepening of the off-season has accelerated inventory accumulation, putting downward pressure on rising prices and creating a quiet trading atmosphere in the market. During the period before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to maintain a cautious attitude towards the trend of copper prices, and it is expected that copper will continue to fluctuate mainly within the high range.

Since January 2026, the domestic melamine market has continued the stable pattern of the end of last year, with prices showing typical characteristics of “high price, low volatility”. According to price tracking data, from the end of December 2025 to January 21, 2026, the mainstream market price of industrial grade (premium products) has been operating within a narrow range of 5633-5666 yuan/ton, especially since the daily report of 5633 yuan/ton on January 3, the price has remained at this level for three consecutive weeks, and the market has shown strong stability.
The formation of this steady-state pattern is not driven by a single factor, but rather the result of a balance of domestic costs and supply, overseas imports and exports, and domestic demand.

1. Cost side:
The primary support for the market this month comes from the upstream and supply sides of the industrial chain. The price of raw material urea remains high. As of January 22, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.45% compared to the beginning of this month (1725.00 yuan/ton). Providing rigid cost support for melamine significantly squeezed the profit margins of production enterprises, thereby strengthening their willingness to raise prices.
2. Supply side:
In January, many domestic production enterprises arranged for equipment shutdown and maintenance or reduced load operation, resulting in a month on month decrease in the overall operating rate of the industry and a marginal tightening of market spot supply. The combined effect of cost pressure and active supply contraction has firmly supported the bottom of market prices, making the downward space for prices extremely limited.
3. Demand side:
The current market demand is stable. Downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings generally adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement, with market transactions mainly based on small orders for essential needs. Despite the approaching Spring Festival, the large-scale pre holiday stocking wave expected by the market has not yet started significantly, and the overall wait-and-see sentiment still exists. This lukewarm demand trend, coupled with tightened supply, is the main reason why prices have not risen rapidly and instead entered a high-level consolidation.
4. Import and export:
The import and export data for December 2025 provided a neutral to warm external environment for the market in January.
In terms of exports, the export volume in December reached 56900 tons, a slight increase of 2.50% compared to the previous month, and the average export price remained stable at 703.09 US dollars per ton. This indicates that overseas demand remains at a healthy level, providing a stable external digestion channel for domestic production capacity and playing a stabilizing role in preventing market collapse caused by insufficient domestic demand.
In terms of imports, the import volume in December was only 19.73 tons, with almost no substantial impact on domestic supply and demand. However, its average import price increased significantly by 27.69% month on month to 5234.26 US dollars per ton, which psychologically strengthened the domestic market’s recognition of high international costs and indirectly consolidated producers’ confidence in price hikes.

Looking ahead to the market before and after the Spring Festival, the current stable pattern will continue, and whether the balance can be broken depends on the four core variables. If the post holiday parking devices resume production in a concentrated manner and the progress exceeds expectations, the supply pressure will significantly increase; The price of urea directly determines the strength of cost support, while the price of raw materials loosens from high levels, and the bottom support for melamine will also weaken accordingly; We also need to focus on whether downstream stocking and resumption of work and replenishment demand can be released as scheduled before and after the Spring Festival, and whether the efforts are sufficient to digest existing and new supply; Export is an important demand buffer, and the resilience of overseas demand in 2026 needs to be continuously observed. Whether it can continue to absorb domestic excess capacity is crucial for the long-term balance of the market.
In summary, the melamine market in January 2026 is dominated by strong internal factors (cost and supply), and formed a phased balance under the combined effects of stable external demand (exports) and untapped internal demand. All parties in the market are closely monitoring the pre holiday stocking trends to find clear signals for the next stage of price direction selection.

According to the analysis of the Business Society Price Monitoring System, on January 6, 2026, the domestic market price of silicon metal #441 was referenced at 9,620 yuan/ton, remaining essentially flat compared to January 1. Against December 1 (when the market price of silicon metal #441 was 9,750 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 130 yuan/ton, marking a 1.33% decline.

Supply and demand both weak, the silicon metal market remains stable this week
According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic metallurgical silicon spot market remained relatively stable this week (January 14-21), with minor fluctuations in market prices and a generally calm fundamental landscape. On January 21, the reference price for metallurgical silicon 441# in East China was around 9,300-9,500 yuan/ton, while the market price for oxygenated 553# was approximately 9,200-9,300 yuan/ton. The market price for #521 was referenced at 9,300-9,500 yuan/ton, and for 421#, it was approximately 9,500-9,800 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
Supply side: Recently, major industrial silicon producers in some regions still have plans to further reduce production and conduct maintenance, leading to a continued decline in overall market operating rates. The metal silicon market faces limited supply pressure, with no significant inventory reduction plans from factories.
On the demand side: In late January, downstream demand for metallurgical silicon remained weak. Major polysilicon manufacturers have recently announced production cuts and maintenance plans, while the organosilicon market has gradually reduced operating loads. Downstream purchasing activity remains relatively rational, and overall demand for metallurgical silicon has performed poorly. The weak supply-demand balance is unlikely to improve.
Post-market analysis
Currently, although the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market remains relatively subdued, suppliers show limited willingness to offer at low prices, while downstream buyers exhibit cautious restocking behavior. The ongoing supply-demand dynamics persist. According to the metal silicon analyst at Business Society, the domestic metal silicon market is expected to experience minor fluctuations in the short term, with further developments largely dependent on supply-demand-related news updates.

In mid January, the domestic ABS market rapidly rose from a low level, with most grades reporting high spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the average price of ABS sample products was 8800.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase or decrease of 6.51% in price level.
Fundamental analysis

Supply level: Since January, the domestic ABS industry has had a large and stable load with small fluctuations. The overall performance within the range has slightly decreased, with some units of Zhejiang Petrochemical having maintenance plans in place. The industry’s overall operating level is around 69.8%, and the weekly average production is close to 150000 tons. The inventory position of aggregation enterprises is significantly digested at around 200000 tons, and the on-site supply tends to be tight and balanced. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the ABS market has eased in the short term, and the supply side still has sufficient support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In mid January, the upstream three material market of ABS experienced two rises and one fall, which had a positive impact on the cost side of ABS. The news in the acrylonitrile market is calm, but the fundamentals remain weak. In addition, there is local inventory pressure, but there is no expectation of a reduction in the supply side in the short term, and the demand side remains flat. The main suppliers of acrylonitrile have continuously lowered their quotations, and the market decline has expanded.
The butadiene market is showing a significant upward trend. At present, the cost side crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, strengthening bottom support. The supply side equipment maintenance, inventory clearance, and external linkage have formed multiple benefits. The demand side Shunding rubber has started to operate at a high level, providing sustained demand. The imbalance between supply and demand has driven the market to strengthen. In the short term, the supplier’s mentality of supporting prices will continue, and the load of the end of line butadiene rubber plant is likely to remain high, providing support for the butadiene market. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will maintain a high volatility pattern.
The styrene market also saw a significant increase. The current resumption of work in the industry falls short of expectations, and supply side support has been strengthened. The increase in maintenance of overseas styrene plants and the increase in inquiries and actual transactions of styrene exports from China have further driven the depletion of port inventory. The worsening situation in the Middle East has driven up crude oil prices and boosted the price of raw material pure benzene. The fundamental improvement of styrene is significant, and it is expected that the styrene market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.
On the demand side: In mid January, there was no significant improvement in the consumption of ABS’s main downstream electrical appliance shell industry, and the improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises was limited. However, due to the low spot prices in the early stage, buyers have increased their ability to place additional orders at low prices. The demand for ABS has shown a phased increase, and the flow rate of supply has improved. The inventory location of merchants is rapidly decreasing, and companies and merchants are trying to overestimate. Overall, the demand side has significantly improved its support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market showed a significant increase in mid January. The production load of the aggregation plant remains stable with small fluctuations, and the replenishment of empty orders on the consumer side continues to be released. Business analysts believe that the macro level ABS supply-demand imbalance pattern still exists, but the recent trend of buying orders at low prices has been strong, and the trading volume has activated market momentum. At the same time, the upstream three material market is helping to strengthen, easing supply pressure in the short term. However, the recent increase has been relatively large, and it is expected that buyers’ acceptance of prices will decline, which may lead to a consolidation of ABS market in the future.

Aluminum prices rose by 6.3% in January

Aluminum prices remained strong in January and have recently experienced a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 19, 2026, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market was 23890 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.3% from the market average price of 22473.33 yuan/ton on January 1; Compared to the high point of the month (1.14), the market average price is 24673.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.17%
In January 2026, aluminum prices continued the strong momentum of 2025, with a strong upward trend in early January, repeatedly reaching new highs. The core of this trend is due to three main factors: rigid supply constraints, structural growth in demand, and resonance between macro and financial factors, coupled with low inventory and rising costs, forming a pattern of “easy rise but difficult fall”. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. Rigid constraints on the supply side
The red line of 45 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China continues to take effect, with limited new production capacity. The increase in aluminum water ratio further compresses the supply elasticity of aluminum ingots. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics in 2025, the annual production of electrolytic aluminum reached 45.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%.
Intensifying overseas supply disruptions: Mozhar Aluminum (with an annual production capacity of 580000 tons) in South Africa will shut down in March due to power issues, Iceland Century Aluminum’s equipment has malfunctioned and reduced production, and global overseas production capacity may exceed 1 million tons. In 2026, the global supply growth rate will only be 1% -2%, and the supply-demand gap is expected to reach 290000 to 840000 tons.
Global aluminum inventory has dropped to a five-year low (LME inventory is about 800000 tons), weakening the buffering effect of inventory on prices and strengthening the expectation of “low inventory+tight supply”.
2. Structural growth on the demand side
The rigid demand for aluminum in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, energy storage, and computing infrastructure has surged, driving high-end aluminum consumption.
The beginning of the domestic “15th Five Year Plan” and the implementation of stable growth policies, coupled with the adjustment of the photovoltaic export tax rebate policy (cancelled from April 1st), have triggered a short-term increase in construction and a phased increase in demand.
The sharp rise in copper prices has led to an increase in the copper aluminum ratio, and the substitution effect of aluminum in some fields has become apparent, driving demand for replenishment
3. Macro and financial resonance
The market expects the Federal Reserve to continue its interest rate cut cycle in 2026, with loose liquidity driving up the attractiveness of colored assets and a weak US dollar reducing holding costs.
After copper prices led the way, funds flooded into the aluminum market seeking to make up for the increase, and futures holdings and trading volumes significantly increased, strengthening the upward momentum of prices.
Global geopolitical risks and fluctuations in energy costs have increased the risk premium of resource goods, coupled with positive domestic policy expectations, leading to a warmer market sentiment.
In summary, the current round of aluminum price increase is the result of the resonance of multiple factors including “supply rigidity+demand growth+macro easing+low inventory”. Short term prices may fluctuate due to the influence of financial sentiment and seasonal accumulation, but in the medium and long term, they are still supported by supply and demand fundamentals. Subsequent focus should be on: the extent of accumulated inventory before and after the Chinese New Year in China, the implementation of overseas production capacity shutdowns, the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the trend of the US dollar, the sustainability of demand in the new energy sector, and the downstream acceptance and cost transmission capacity of high prices.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the 16th, copper prices were reported at 101810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 49.56%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 6 and risen by 6, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 141125 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 2.84% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically speaking, at the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched a crackdown on Venezuela and seized resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland, leading to an increase in risk aversion. The US dollar seized the opportunity to rebound, oil prices fell, stock markets fluctuated, precious metals such as gold and silver retreated, and copper prices fell under pressure. The central bank decisively lowered the refinancing and rediscount interest rates.
Supply side: Major copper producing countries such as Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have experienced supply disruptions due to strikes, natural disasters, and geopolitical conflicts. ICSG predicts that the global copper production growth rate in 2026 will be less than 1%. Coupled with the siphon effect of possible tariffs imposed by the United States, the expectation of tight supply in non US regions has been strengthened. However, the domestic copper concentrate spot TC has fallen to a historical low, indicating that supply fragility has been partially priced, and the short-term bullish margin has weakened.
On the demand side: Domestic terminals are in the off-season, with weak transactions and continuous accumulation of social inventory. The inventory on the warehouse receipts in the previous period exceeded 140000 tons. However, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, State Grid Corporation of China set a new high of 4 trillion yuan in investment for power grid upgrading and renovation, providing a bottom line support for the high operation of copper prices.
In summary, under the situation of supply disturbance, the US dollar has risen, and coupled with downstream processing enterprises gradually taking holidays before the Spring Festival, demand driven procurement dominates the market. During the inventory accumulation period in January and February, it is expected that copper prices will maintain a mainly volatile and weak trend.