According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market price recovered steadily in mid September, and the spot prices of some brands fell back. As of September 24, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was around 8016.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic (Shandong) market price of propylene upstream of PP stabilized after rising in mid September. According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, since September 1, the price of propylene has been rising continuously, and the upward range is getting larger and larger. Up to the 4th, the price rose by 300 yuan / ton. From the 7th to the 10th, the first round of downward adjustment occurred, with a total reduction of 100-150 yuan / ton. After that, it slightly stabilized. The price rose again on the 13th, and rose by about 350 yuan / T on the 17th. On the 18th, the price began to hold steady. At present, the market has been trading at Between 7300 and 7600 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is about 7465.45 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, low inventory. The crude oil price has risen significantly, the overall industrial chain is better, the profit of downstream products is generally optimistic, the purchasing enthusiasm is good, but the market atmosphere is still lively, but the price is in the top position. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will start to stabilize in the later stage, which does not rule out the possibility of a small correction.

The recent high and stable price of upstream propylene has supported the cost side of PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market performance of PP (wire drawing) was adjusted in September, and the spot price had a correction in the near future. In terms of inventory, PP inventory of two barrels of oil and other manufacturers decreased steadily, and the inventory level was in the low range over the years. Since the beginning of the month, the arrival of port cargo has been stable, and there is no obvious pressure on inventory. The near-term trend of far upstream crude oil is not very ideal, forming a certain pressure on chemicals under the industrial chain. At present, the production of PP maintenance equipment is more, and the shutdown situation is less. And some news said that there are also start-up projects, PP supply increase is expected to be negative. At present, although the downstream demand is normal, but the above negative factors still cause businesses to follow suit, and it is expected that PP (wire drawing) market will weaken.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 24, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 8316.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, there was a 2.89% increase, among which the spot price of fiber materials fluctuated and stabilized in mid September. At present, the production of fiber PP is normal and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is reported that the inventory of fiber materials has decreased steadily, and the consumption in peak season has certain support for the spot price. However, the negative news of crude oil falling and supply increasing restricted the fiber material market. PP (fiber) is expected to be pulled into the finishing market in the near future.

PP meltblown material market weakness continued, domestic PP melt blown material market confidence is insufficient, but the price is close to stable. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention products is declining. The pattern of market oversupply did not improve, but the price decline of PP meltblown materials narrowed. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the decline of PP (melt blown) has decreased since September. As of September 24, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14500 yuan / ton. This month, the market atmosphere seems to be immersed in last month’s overseas big bill failure. At present, some countries in the world may enter the rebound period of health events again, and the demand is expected to rise. However, the competition among domestic anti epidemic product manufacturers is still strong, and the profits of the main downstream mask factories are seriously diluted. Sinopec’s next sales of meltblown materials and cloth also have an impact on the market. The relationship between the future demand of PP (melt blown) and the profit of manufacturers is complex, and the mentality of merchants is negative. However, the spot price of melt blown PP seems to have fallen to a low profit point, which is expected to stabilize in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: mid September domestic PP spot market market callback. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) inventory supply expanded expectations, prices have a certain range of correction. PP (fiber) market temporarily stable, PP (melt blown) demand continued to be weak, the price callback range narrowed. At present, the steady decline of inventory, supply expansion expectations and weak futures and other factors restrict the PP market. The stock situation of downstream factories is fair, the business mentality is general, and the offer follows the market. PP spot prices are expected to weaken in the near future.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market on September 24 was 14276.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.95% compared with the average market price of 14710 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (September 1), 1.90% lower than the valley value of the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) 14553.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 27.05%.

In September, the price of aluminum ingots first fell and then rose. In the recent two days, the price of aluminum ingots has fallen continuously, breaking through the earlier shock range (the range is 14500-14800 yuan / ton), and the horizontal trend shows a slight break.

Supply and demand in September

1. Social inventory continued to move down to support aluminum prices

Social inventory: in September, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to move down, about 20000 tons lower than 755000 tons at the end of August. According to statistical data, the domestic electrolytic aluminum spot inventory on September 21 was 735000 tons, which was 5000 tons lower than that of the previous week, which was 74 tons on September 17. Compared with August 28, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 755000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons.

2. New and resumed production capacity is expected to increase at the supply side

In terms of production capacity: with the newly added and resumed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Sichuan, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia, as of mid September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China has increased to 37.75 million tons / year, and the completed capacity scale is 42.88 million tons / year, and the supply side will be released in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year..

3. The price of net imported aluminum in February was under pressure

In terms of import and export: in August 2020, China’s exports of UN forged and rolled aluminum and aluminum products reached 395000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%. From January to August, the export of UN forged and rolled aluminum and aluminum products was 3.134 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%. China imported 429000 tons of aluminum in August, the highest level in more than 11 years, the second consecutive month of net aluminum imports.

Raw material alumina: 417300 tons of alumina were imported in July, and 2327200 tons were imported from January to July, an increase of 341.2% year-on-year.

Future forecast

Aluminum prices have been running sideways for a long time, and the upward breakthrough is weak, mainly based on the fact that the average profit of domestic aluminum price is still acceptable, the enthusiasm of new production and re production capacity is high, coupled with the price difference between internal and external, the original aluminum import volume increases, resulting in greater domestic supply pressure. Fortunately, the social inventory data shows that although the export market is still significantly down year-on-year, domestic consumption is good. This week, aluminum prices fell for two consecutive days, breaking through the horizontal trend in September. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business agency, believes that in the near future, the basic metals are greatly affected by the external price. In addition, although the consumption demand in the traditional consumption peak season in September has increased on a month on month basis, the market expectation for the surplus supply in the aftermarket has been intensified, leading to the rise of the expected demand for consumer demand, and the consumption demand is not as good as the market forecast The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be weak and stable in October, with the price range of 13500-15000 yuan / ton.

On September 24, the price of silicon metal (441) rose slightly. According to the data of business agency, on September 24, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 11558.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.12% compared with the average market price of 11208.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (9.1); 10491.67 yuan / ton, up 10.17%; 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.32% compared with the average market price of (1.1) at the beginning of the month.

On the 24th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 10900-11000 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, that of Kunming is 11400-11500 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai is 12100-12300 yuan / ton, that of Tianjin port is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, and that of Huangpu port is 11600-11800 yuan / ton 。

Export orders picked up in September, with a small increase in volume. At present, the mainstream silicon factories are optimistic and willing to support prices. On the one hand, the silicon price moved up slightly, the market was expected to be better, and the seller’s reluctance to sell increased; on the other hand, the export price of silicon metal was affected by the exchange rate, and the RMB valuation rose.

According to the data of business agency, the spot price of gold on September 24 was 396.80 yuan / g, a decrease of 6.33% compared with the average price of 423.60 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (9.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 15.84%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 19.61%; compared with the peak value (8.7) of the year, the spot price of silver was 448 yuan / g , down 11.43%.

On September 24, the average price of silver market was 4837.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 22.44% compared with the early average price of 6237 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (September 1); compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 4281.67 yuan / kg, up 10.54%; compared with the valley value (3.19), the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 64.40%; compared with the peak value (8.11) of the year, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg , down 27.89%.

Silver 3 in a row plummeted, spot short more than doubled

Before the start of silver price slump, the author was bearish at 5764 yuan / kg average price in the simulated account of Shanghai Stock Exchange. This week, silver plummeted for three consecutive times, and the simulated fund of the account has more than doubled

According to business agency data, the average price of silver on September 24 was 4837.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 16.19% compared with the average price of 5772 yuan / kg in the spot market on September 18

Influencing factors of recent news

1. The US dollar index strengthened, reaching a 2-month high

2. Worries about the second overseas epidemic and the US financial deadlock continue

Capital factor

Silver with strong commodity attributes suffered panic selling, and the position of iShares silver trust, the world’s largest silver, decreased by 63.68 tons compared with the previous day, and the current position was 17214.03 tons.

Future forecast

It is expected that the price of precious metals will continue to be weak in the near future.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the melamine market has been running steadily, with the market price rising steadily on September 23. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of September 23, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5600 yuan / ton, which was 1.82% higher than the beginning of the week (September 21) and 1.20% higher than that of August 23. Downstream enterprises replenish before the festival, the market atmosphere is OK, and the price center of gravity moves up steadily. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 5500 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is around 4700 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is around 5300 yuan / ton.

Upstream urea, September 23, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts in the business agency believe that the current upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost side has a certain support, enterprises orderly implement the early orders, it is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be mainly stable.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market is stronger in mid September, and all models of products have a certain increase. As of September 22, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 20500.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.77% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

The domestic prices of adipic acid in the upstream of PA66 have been stable in recent years, and the quotations of dealers in some regions have risen slightly. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable for the time being, and the normal operating rate of the device is about 80%. At present, the downstream demand is relatively weak, the market is in a state of oversupply, and there is inventory pressure of adipic acid. The cost side of pure benzene showed a trend of high level and slow decline in recent years, and its support to the downstream adipic acid was general. On the whole, the market is still in a weak stable pattern. At the same time, due to inventory pressure and weak demand, the current price is unable to rise or fall temporarily. It is not ruled out that prices will continue to fall.

The upstream adipic acid generally supports the cost of PA66. In the middle of this month, the domestic spot price of PA66 continued to rise in the first ten days of this month, and the increase further expanded. At present, the operating rate of PA66 in China remains low, with little change. The supply level in the market is still tight. In addition, it is the traditional peak season of PA66. Although the replenishment operation of downstream factories maintains the just needed goods, the domestic consumption of PA66 has increased, and the overall terminal demand has recovered. Business shipment situation is fair, PA66 is expected to continue the strong trend.

Business agency analysts believe that: in mid September, domestic PA66 market continued to be strong trend. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable and small, which supports the cost of PA66. Downstream factory inquiry and procurement to maintain just need operation, order follow-up has become warmer. At present, the market supply is still tight, and it is expected that the market of PA66 will continue to be stronger in the short term.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (September 23): 8780 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of BR 9000 in China was 8780 yuan / ton on the 23rd, up 0.46% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene has continued to rise, and the cost has been pushed up. According to the business agency, the current butadiene price is 6257 yuan / ton, which is 10.31 yuan higher than 5612 yuan / ton in early September. On the other hand, the production of downstream tires and automobiles increased compared with the previous period, and the demand side was supported. According to the business agency, in August 2020, the domestic output of rubber tire outer tire was 77.104 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; in the first ten days of September 2020, the automobile output of 11 key enterprises reached 729000, with a year-on-year increase of 17%.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price shocks and falls, together with the foreign epidemic situation rebound situation aggravating, will cast a shadow on the future economy. It is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will rise and fall back slightly in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business society, as of September 23, the average price of R22 was 14833.33 yuan / ton, down 6.32% compared with the beginning of the month, 10.64% on month, and 2.2% lower than the same period last year.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business society, as of September 23, the average price of R134a refrigerant was 15566.67 yuan / ton, 3.32% compared with the beginning of the month, 5.66% lower on a month basis, and 38.15% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the refrigerant market was uncertain, the demand was weak, the market transaction was weak, and the various refrigerant market continued to be low, the market lacked obvious positive signals, and the attitude of the industry was negative. This month R134a rose sharply, prices hit the bottom rebound, and the favorable day drop prompted the R134a center of gravity to move up slightly. R22 enterprises are weak in price, and they have been down significantly. At present, the refrigerant export is not smooth, the downstream air conditioning output is low, and the demand is scarce. With the weather turning cold, the demand is even more frosty. The manufacturers are under pressure on the delivery. The traders are cautious to watch and see that the weak situation of refrigerant is difficult to change.

R134a, in September, trichloroethylene, raw material, rose suddenly. R134 was supported by cost, and the price hit the bottom and rebounded. The total monthly increase was 3.32. Taking Dongyue, Shandong Province as an example, the price at the beginning of the month was 15000 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was increased to 16000 yuan / T, and the monthly price rose by 1000 yuan. Other enterprises increased to different degrees. Although R134a has cost driven, it has poor demand, dealers are cautious to wait and see, there is not much replenishment, and there are plans for new capacity entering the market. The market competition is fierce. Some enterprises have the phenomenon of cost reverse shipment to maintain old customers, and the market is not optimistic. According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of September 23, the main manufacturers price of R134a market of refrigerant was about 15000-16000 yuan / ton, and the center of business was slightly moved up.

R22, the price of refrigerant R22 in September dropped. Raw materials fluorite, hydrofluoric acid and chloroform prices have declined to varying degrees, and the cost side support is insufficient. Although R22 has quota support, it is hindered by demand, the firm price of the manufacturer is weak, the quotation begins to loosen, and the market returns to the buyer’s leading position. Affected by new energy efficiency, the demand of R22 is reduced, traders are more cautious in hoarding, few replenishments, insufficient market gas, and insufficient confidence of the industry. As of September 23, the price of the mainstream manufacturers in the refrigerant R22 market was about 13500-16500 yuan / ton, and the price was steadily and quietly decreased.

Upstream hydrofluoric acid, September 23, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 7700-8300 yuan / ton. The factory price of the in-house merchants remained stable. The domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers started at a normal rate, the supply of goods in the site was normal, and affected by the stable fluorite price, but the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was poor, and the on-site procurement was mainly based on demand, and the site price in the later period was expected to be kept low.

The price of methane chloride Market in Shandong Province is up, the mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2490-2540 yuan / T, and the mainstream price of trichloromethane market is about 1900 yuan / T, and it is expected to adjust in a short period of time. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is high, which supports the price of methane chloride better; the overall demand for downstream market is not good and the support is insufficient.

3、 Post market forecast

Refrigerant analysts of business agency believe that in September, the refrigerant market was weak, R134a price rose, the market transaction atmosphere was poor, the price rise lacked actual driving force, and it is expected that the weak and stable in the short term; the demand for R22 is weak, the manufacturer is generally shipped, the traders’ stock enthusiasm is not high, the price is clearly stable and the price is down, and it is expected that the weak maintenance will be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of ethyl acetate in East China is strong and upward. As of September 22, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 5720 yuan / ton, 2.1% higher than the average price of 5602 yuan / ton in East China at the beginning of the month, and 1.37% higher than the same period of last month.

At present, the overall domestic ethyl acetate Market is stable and firm, and the enterprises start their business smoothly. The downstream and traders have basically completed the stock preparation before the festival. The large orders are less, and the small orders are more than zero. The raw materials acetic acid and ethanol have shown strong performance recently, and the cost support of ethyl acetate is good. At present, it is about 5750 yuan / ton in East China, 5650 yuan / ton in North China and 6100 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the shutdown and load reduction of acetic acid production enterprises and the low inventory of the industry led to the tight spot supply in the market, and the downstream and traders’ stock preparation was basically completed, which is expected to be stable and stable in a short time. The ethanol market is stable and strong. The raw corn is affected by the bad weather and typhoon, which will have a certain negative impact on the listing of new grain. Recently, the ethanol production enterprises in Northeast China have successively planned to repair and repair, so the supply may be reduced to a certain extent, and it will be strong in a short time.

The international market price of ethyl acetate is stable and firm. At present, the port price of European market is about 750 euro / ton, and that of North American market is about 640-690 US dollars / ton.

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of business club, the domestic downstream market of ethyl acetate is mainly based on digestion contract, the transaction of new orders is limited, and the enterprise’s inventory pressure is not big, and the operation is strong in a short period of time.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 22, the price quoted by pet water bottle manufacturers was 5283.33 yuan / ton, and the price of mainstream manufacturers was around 5250-5350 yuan / ton. The market of polyester bottle chip in South China was in a weak position, with the mainstream price of 5000-5100 yuan / ton.

Pet market is weak, market negotiation focus is weak, downstream cautious wait-and-see demand is poor, the number of new orders is limited, the negotiation atmosphere is low, and just need procurement is the main. At present, the polyester bottle pieces in East China are running at a low level, and the current quotations of mainstream manufacturers are around 5250-5300 yuan / ton. The mainstream negotiation price in South China is 5000-5100 yuan / ton. At present, the price of Xiamen Tenglong is 5300 yuan / ton, and that of Guangdong is 5300 yuan / ton Taibao 5300 yuan / ton, Zhuhai China Resources 5250 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai 5250 yuan / ton, Yizheng Chemical fiber 5300 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment is smooth and the inventory is general.

The upstream PTA market is weak in operation, the cost side support is general, and the just needed procurement is given priority to, and the negotiation atmosphere is dull.

On September 21, PTA commodity index was 34.13, down 0.22 points compared with yesterday, 67.16% lower than 103.92 points (2011-09-15), and 13.43% higher than the lowest point of 30.09 points on April 22, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The chemical index on September 22 was 731, up 1 point compared with yesterday, 28.05% lower than 1016 (2012-03-13), and 22.24% higher than 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Pet analyst of business agency thinks: pet market runs smoothly in the short term, and the focus of negotiation is low. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by pet business analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)