1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the 13th, copper prices were reported at 100615 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 26.16%.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have risen slightly this week, with a decrease of 7 and an increase of 4 in the past three months.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased. As of the weekend, LME copper inventory was 312350 tons, up 6.15% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, although the February US CPI data met expectations, the uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts has pushed up crude oil prices, becoming a “new variable” for inflation. As of March 15th, Brent crude oil prices have soared to $98 per barrel, up 23% from early February, directly driving up global energy costs. The US bond market took the lead in responding: the two-year US bond yield hit 3.632%, a new five month high; Federal funds rate futures show that the expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has plummeted from 41 basis points to 32 basis points, and the market has even postponed the next rate cut to September.
Supply side: The overseas mining sector continues to experience disturbances, with leading institutions warning of an expanding supply gap. Domestic spot processing fees continue to run at negative values, further confirming the fact of a shortage in the mining sector and continuing to provide strong bottom support for copper prices. On the inventory side, LME copper inventory has continued to accumulate recently. Although the inventory increased slightly yesterday, the latest inventory rose to 312300 tons. However, domestic social inventory has slightly decreased, with electrolytic copper spot inventory of 577500 tons on March 12th, a decrease of 12300 tons from the 9th.
On the demand side: With the recent fluctuation of copper prices and the support of peak season expectations for buying, the prosperity of spot consumption has improved. The warehouse outflow volume increased during the week, and the arrival of domestic goods in some markets decreased, driving down inventory.
In summary, geopolitical conflicts are intertwined with macro risks, and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices may continue to limit the Federal Reserve’s room for interest rate cuts, putting pressure on market risk appetite and restraining the upward momentum of copper prices. However, the long-term demand support brought by energy transformation and AI data center construction, as well as the trend of domestic social inventory shifting towards destocking, provide bottom support for prices. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term, hovering around 100000 yuan/ton.

In early March 2026, the domestic phenol market experienced a roller coaster ride – from continuous surges to two days of sharp declines, with price fluctuations exceeding 2500 yuan/ton, catching upstream and downstream enterprises off guard.

This market trend is caused by the disturbance of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, severe fluctuations in costs, and the tug of war between supply and demand.
1、 Sudden: Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East ignites reasons for price increases
The rise in phenol prices in early March was mainly due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Iran’s announcement of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage responsible for 20% of global crude oil transportation, directly triggers global energy supply shortages.
A chain reaction immediately emerged: Brent crude oil surged in a single day, and this impact quickly spread to the upstream of the phenol industry chain. As the core raw materials of phenol, pure benzene and propylene have seen a significant increase in prices.
Data shows that phenol in East China has risen sharply for 6 consecutive working days, with some factories raising their prices for 8 days, reaching a maximum of 11050 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 30.53% compared to the end of February. The industry chain has also risen in sync, with downstream bisphenol A rising by as much as 35.80%. Market sentiment has been in a frenzy for a while.
On March 9th, the listing price of Sinopec North China phenol increased by 3400, with a cash withdrawal of 12000 yuan/ton executed. The listing price of Sinopec East China phenol increased by 3400, with a cash withdrawal of 12000 yuan/ton executed.
2、 Sudden decline: Over 2500 yuan in two days, terminal buying urgently brakes
The soaring market is ultimately difficult to sustain, and March 10th became the “turning point” of this round of market. On that day, crude oil prices surged and fell, directly driving core raw materials such as pure benzene and propylene to simultaneously decline. The cost support for phenol instantly weakened, and prices quickly plummeted from their peak.
On March 10th, the price of phenol in East China fell to 9000 yuan/ton; On March 11th, the price further dropped to 8500 yuan/ton, with a cumulative drop of over 2500 yuan/ton in just two days, and the previously accumulated gains were greatly eroded.
The drastic fluctuations in prices have directly undermined the purchasing confidence of the end market. Downstream factories are extremely sensitive to the weakening of high prices and quickly adjust their purchasing strategies. The buying trend shows an “emergency brake” situation – market trading is light, and most companies choose to wait and see, with only a small amount of essential purchases, making it difficult to increase trading volume. Market sentiment quickly shifts from fanaticism to caution.
3、 What is the potential for fluctuations in the future market when multiple variables are interwoven?
At present, the phenol market is in a recovery stage after a sharp rise and fall, and the future trend is dominated by multiple variables, with uncertainty still present.
From the perspective of core influencing factors, the first is the continuous disturbance of geopolitical risks: the EU has extended the flight of conflict airspace in the Middle East until March 18th, which means that the energy market will still be affected by geopolitical factors, which will then be transmitted to the phenol industry chain.
Secondly, there is a differentiation in the cost side: on March 11th, pure benzene rebounded after falling due to the impact of reduced production by petrochemical companies (with mixed fluctuations in the North and South markets), while propylene continued to fall, and phenol cost support showed differentiation. It is worth noting that the price difference between phenol and pure benzene in East China has increased from 500 yuan/ton at the end of February to around 1000 yuan/ton, and 500 yuan/ton may become a critical point for price fluctuations. Currently, there is a wide inversion in the phenol ketone market, and the willingness of enterprises to sell below has weakened.

There are also variables on the supply and demand side: on the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises remains at 89%, and some units are still undergoing maintenance/load reduction, supporting spot prices; On the demand side, downstream production of bisphenol A and phenolic resin is flat, and the acceptance of high prices by end-users is low. There is insufficient follow-up on buying orders. If demand cannot improve, there will still be downward pressure on prices.
In addition, the monthly average price also provides some support – it is expected that the monthly average price of phenol in March will remain above 8000 yuan/ton, and the space for further price decline is limited. The market is likely to rationally repair around the monthly average price.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, this round of phenol market is the result of the combined effects of geopolitical conflicts, cost transmission, and supply-demand imbalance, and the current market is in a rational regression stage. Without the influence of new sudden factors, the short-term price of phenol will fluctuate narrowly around the range of 8300-9200 yuan/ton, gradually easing the market inversion and seeking a new balance point between supply and demand.
For upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, the most prudent approach at present is “cautious operation”: upstream enterprises can adjust the pace of equipment operation reasonably based on inventory and profits; Downstream enterprises adhere to the principle of on-demand procurement and avoid stockpiling or empty inventory; The entire industry chain needs to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East, changes in raw material prices and terminal demand, and make timely adjustments.

Core viewpoint: This week (as of March 11th), the domestic melamine market has continued its strong upward trend. Under the combined effect of strong raw material costs, sudden tightening of supply, and concentrated price hikes by enterprises, the ex factory prices of major enterprises have risen by as much as 400 yuan/ton in a single day, and the market has a strong bullish sentiment.
1、 Price trend:
According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6337.50 yuan/ton on March 11th, a cumulative increase of 6.16% compared to early March (5970.00 yuan/ton). From the performance of the week, the cumulative increase in the past week has reached 3.05%, indicating a clear upward trend in price acceleration.
2、 Upward driving force:
1. Cost side:
The core driving force behind the current rise in melamine prices comes from the significant increase in upstream raw material costs. The recent geopolitical events in the Strait of Hormuz have hindered the import of methanol, which is the core raw material for melamine. The daily increase in domestic methanol prices has exceeded 7%, directly pushing up the production cost of urea. Urea, as a direct raw material for melamine, exerts clear upward pressure on prices along the “methanol urea melamine” industry chain, providing the lowest level of cost support for the rise in melamine prices.
2. Supply side:
At the same time as the cost increases, there is also a tense situation on the supply side. After the Spring Festival, some equipment maintenance has not been fully restored, and the market spot circulation itself is not high. Against the backdrop of tight supply, the market’s “buying up” sentiment has been ignited, further fueling price increases.
3. Centralized pricing by enterprises
March 9-10 has become a critical window period for this round of price increases, with major manufacturers significantly increasing their factory prices
This large-scale and significant price increase behavior, combined with the actual shutdown of individual devices, has led to tight short-term supply expectations in the market, with production companies selling without pressure and a rise in reluctance to sell, resulting in most companies suspending orders.
4. Demand side:
The downstream sheet metal and molding plastic industries have resumed work comprehensively after the holiday, forming rigid demand support. According to the analysis of China Board Network, the prices of chemical raw materials such as melamine have skyrocketed, coupled with the large number of construction sites starting construction nationwide and the high demand for building templates, the terminal sales prices have been continuously pushed up. Although demand is not the main engine of this price increase, it provides a “pass” for price increases, allowing cost pressures to be smoothly transmitted downstream.
3、 Summary
At present, the positive news of tightening supply has dominated market sentiment. After the “buy up” sentiment was ignited, the market was booming. Most companies have suspended acquiring orders, waiting for prices to continue rising. The rising cost of raw materials and the strong willingness of production enterprises to raise prices are expected to continue supporting the short-term market.
Short term prediction: It is expected that the melamine market will maintain a strong trend in the remaining time of this week, and there is still a possibility of further exploration. However, it should be noted that after the price increase, the actual downstream demand capacity still needs to be observed, and there may be room for negotiation for some high priced transactions. Investors need to closely monitor the restart progress of parking devices, the trend of raw material prices, and the actual situation of downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have fallen sharply recently. On March 10th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 730 points, a decrease of 32 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.51% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 169.37% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all declined. As of the 11th, the price of neodymium oxide was 865000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.49% in two days; The price of neodymium metal was 1.045 million yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 6.28%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 835000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.49% in 2 days; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.04 million yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 9.57%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 965000 yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 8.96%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 775000 yuan/ton, with a 2-day price decline of 8.82%.
Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have fallen sharply, and the prices of core products have continued to decline, leading to a rapid cooling of the market atmosphere. The decline in rare earth prices did not lead to a rebound in transactions, but instead fell into a stalemate of “unlimited price reductions”. The purchasing willingness of downstream magnetic material enterprises continues to be sluggish, mainly focusing on long-term contract procurement for essential needs and low inventory operations, with few market-oriented zero order purchases; On the trade side, there is a phenomenon of concentrated discounts on shipments and the realization of profitable positions. Some holders are eager to cash in and actively lower prices, further exacerbating the downward pressure on prices.
1、 The supply side has shifted from tight to loose, and the expectation of market shortage has completely subsided
The transformation of the supply pattern is the core driving force behind the current downturn in the rare earth market. The supply contraction logic that previously supported the rise in rare earth prices is gradually collapsing, and the market supply of goods is becoming more relaxed. On the one hand, the domestic rare earth production capacity has been released in an orderly manner, and the separation indicators for mining and smelting have been steadily implemented. Leading enterprises such as Northern Rare Earth have maintained normal levels of production, and the supply of light rare earth raw materials is stable and sufficient, effectively ensuring the upstream supply of the industrial chain; On the other hand, overseas import channels have remained smooth, with rare earth imports steadily increasing year-on-year since the beginning of 2026. The continuous influx of overseas incremental sources of goods has fully offset previous market concerns about supply contraction in Myanmar and export controls in Vietnam. The supply side has rapidly shifted from a tight state to a supply-demand balance or even a slight easing, and prices have lost their core upward support.
2、 The demand side continues to be weak, and the downstream demand support is insufficient

As an upstream raw material, the price trend of rare earths is highly dependent on downstream industry demand, and the current weak performance of downstream demand has become a key factor suppressing the rare earth market. In the early stage, rare earth prices continued to operate at high levels, significantly driving up production costs in downstream fields such as permanent magnet materials, new energy vehicles, wind power, and consumer electronics. Downstream enterprises’ profit margins were squeezed, and their stocking pace was generally slowed down. They actively avoided the risk of high priced raw materials and shifted to on-demand procurement and light inventory operation mode, resulting in a significant decrease in demand for rare earth raw materials. Combined with March being the traditional off-season for consumption, the growth rate of new energy vehicle terminal sales has slowed down, the pace of wind power installation has entered a period of adjustment, the demand in the consumer electronics market has not shown a significant rebound, the transmission of terminal orders is weak, the operating rate of magnetic material enterprises has not met expectations, and the ability to digest rare earth raw materials continues to be insufficient. More noteworthy is the emergence of raw material substitution technologies in some downstream fields, with the gradual application of substitute products such as cerium iron alloys, further reducing the demand share of high-end rare earth raw materials. The overall performance of the demand side is weak, making it difficult to effectively support high rare earth prices.
3、 The market sentiment has collectively turned, and the realization of profit orders has intensified the downward trend
The rapid reversal of market sentiment has amplified the downward trend in rare earth prices. Previously, the price of rare earths surged rapidly in the short term, with a considerable cumulative increase. The market has accumulated a large number of short-term profit opportunities, and the willingness of funds to take profits is strong. After the price reached a high level, traders and speculative funds concentrated on cashing in profits, actively lowering prices and shipping, driving the market quotation to quickly decline, thereby triggering a rise in bearish expectations in the market.
4、 Outlook for the future: Short term weakness is difficult to change, and strategic support still exists in the medium and long term
In the short term, the weak pattern of the rare earth market is unlikely to show significant improvement. The loose situation on the supply side will continue, and the off-season effect of downstream demand has not yet subsided. The market’s wait-and-see sentiment is difficult to quickly reverse, and prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend. We will continue to seek a balance point between supply and demand. If downstream terminal demand fails to recover in a timely manner, coupled with the continued willingness of traders to ship, there is still room for further decline in rare earth prices. However, considering the support of upstream costs and the continued willingness of the industry to support prices, the probability of a significant drop is low, and the market will mainly experience a mild correction and consolidation.
In the medium to long term, the strategic value and essential properties of rare earths remain prominent. With the gradual recovery of demand in downstream fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power installation, and industrial motors, coupled with the continuous tightening of rare earth industry control, the expectation of strategic storage, and the recovery of overseas high-end manufacturing demand, the supply and demand pattern of rare earths is expected to tighten again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw material of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading. After the short-term negative factors are exhausted and market sentiment is restored, the rare earth market is expected to stabilize and rebound.

1、 Overview of Core Data

Since March, the price of propylene has started a unilateral upward trend. As of March 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 8817.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 37.54% compared to 6411.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of March. The price has shown a linear upward trend, and the market spot is tight, with high price transactions becoming normalized. Downstream demand mainly follows suit.
2、 The core logic behind the rise in propylene prices in March (driven by both Middle East geopolitics and domestic supply and demand)
1. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East:
As a core production area for crude oil and propane globally, as well as an important exporter of chemical products, the Middle East continues to ferment in this round of geopolitical conflicts, becoming a key external driver for the surge in propylene prices.
On the one hand, international crude oil and propane prices have risen significantly due to the geopolitical situation, and propylene, as the core product of refining and propane dehydrogenation, has seen a rigid increase in raw material costs, providing underlying support for price increases;
On the other hand, the shipping risks of key waterways such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, and the expected arrival of imported propylene at ports has tightened, resulting in increased transportation costs. Coupled with disruptions in the supply of chemical plants in the Middle East, market concerns about supply gaps have intensified, and the risk premium has significantly pushed up propylene prices.
2. Supply side:
The centralized maintenance of domestic propylene enterprises’ facilities has been implemented, and some facilities are operating at reduced loads. The effective supply in the market has significantly decreased, and the tight situation of spot resources has become prominent. Against the backdrop of restricted import supplementation, the contraction of the domestic supply side further exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance, becoming the internal core support for rapid price increases.
3. Demand side:
Downstream major industries such as polypropylene and epichlorohydrin continue to operate normally, with solid support for essential procurement. Downstream enterprises passively accept high priced sources of goods; Combined with strong bullish expectations in the market, the combination of essential purchases and moderate inventory replenishment has formed a sustained buying force, driving prices to continue to rise. As of March 10th, the benchmark price of Business Society PP (wire drawing) was 9126.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.97% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.33 yuan/ton).
As of March 10th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 10516.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.46% compared to the beginning of this month (8000.00 yuan/ton).
3、 Future prospects
In the short term, there is still uncertainty in the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The cost support of crude oil and propane has not dissipated, and the tight supply of domestic propylene is difficult to alleviate in the short term. Downstream demand continues to follow up, and propylene prices are likely to remain high, with intensified high-level fluctuations.
Special attention should be paid to the evolution of the situation in the Middle East, the arrival of imported propylene at ports, and the progress of domestic plant restart. If geopolitical sentiment eases and supply recovers, there is a risk of high price correction.
IV. Summary
The 38% surge in propylene prices in March is the result of cost and import disruptions caused by Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, coupled with domestic supply contraction and downstream demand follow-up. The market presents a strong trend driven by cost and supply-demand mismatch, and the subsequent geopolitical situation and supply recovery progress will dominate the price trend.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province saw a slight correction this week (3.1-3.9), with an average market price of 16750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16650 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.60%.
In early March, the overall trend showed a “stable to weak operation, slight fluctuations” pattern, with no significant fluctuations in prices. The price range was in line with the reasonable cost line of the industry.

supply side
As of early March, the domestic magnesium market has limited available spot goods, and some factories in the main production areas are still delivering pre year orders, resulting in insufficient supply of new spot goods. The pressure on factory inventory is relatively small, and the willingness to raise prices is clear. At the same time, the industry policy environment continues to optimize, and magnesium smelting has been removed from the “two highs” directory. Enterprises in the main production areas are gradually optimizing their production capacity structure, focusing on improving quality and efficiency. However, in the short term, the speed of capacity release has been slow, and there has not been a large amount of new capacity impacting the market, further consolidating the tight spot market situation. In addition, some high cost magnesium smelting enterprises in Shanxi, Shaanxi and other regions have gradually withdrawn from the market, and the overall smelting cost of the industry has increased, providing bottom support for magnesium ingot prices.
Demand side:
It presents the characteristic of “gradual recovery but insufficient strength”. Since March, downstream industries in China have gradually resumed work and production, with slow release of demand in areas such as new energy vehicles, aerospace, and consumer electronics. However, most downstream users and trading enterprises have sufficient stock before the year, and are still in the stage of inventory digestion in the short term. Purchasing is mainly for essential needs, and there is currently no large-scale replenishment demand, which has limited boosting effect on magnesium ingot prices. Among them, the new energy vehicle sector, as the core engine of magnesium demand growth, continues to increase the amount of magnesium used per vehicle, but the demand release pace is slow in the short term; Although emerging fields such as humanoid robots and commercial aerospace continue to expand their demand for magnesium alloys, they are still in the stage of small-scale application and have not yet formed large-scale demand support, making it difficult to drive a significant increase in magnesium ingot prices.
Cost side:
The cost side provides strong support for the price of magnesium ingots, and the industry’s cost bottom line is clear. Magnesium smelting mainly relies on coal as a reducing agent, and domestic coal prices remain stable with slight increases in some regions. Currently, magnesium ingot prices are above the cost line, and most enterprises have achieved small profits, further enhancing the factory’s ability to maintain high prices.
comprehensive analysis
Overall, there is a lack of core driving force for significant increases or decreases in magnesium ingot prices in the short term, and stable operation will be the main focus. Attention will be paid to the follow-up of downstream demand, the pace of capacity release in major production areas, and fluctuations in coal prices.

I. Trend Analysis

Business Society monitoring data shows that copper prices declined slightly this week, reaching 101,121.67 yuan/ton by the 6th, down 1.04% from the start of the week and up 29.11% year-on-year.
According to the weekly price trend chart from Business Society, copper prices have experienced seven declines and four increases over the past three months, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventory rose slightly, reaching 282,200 tons by the end of the week, up 9.52% from the beginning of the week.
Macro perspective: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has entered its sixth day, with escalated actions by the U.S. and Israel triggering a surge in crude oil prices. Global markets swiftly shifted to a “risk-off + stagflation” mode. Both the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields soared, exerting valuation pressure on commodities.
Supply side: The copper market has faced significant supply pressure recently. LME copper inventories have shown a fluctuating rebound trend, with the latest stockpiles rising above 260,000 tons. Domestically, both domestic production and previously locked-in imported copper shipments continue to arrive, coupled with elevated social inventories, resulting in overall ample market liquidity. Although logistical disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo have impacted supply to some extent, high copper prices have stimulated increased scrap copper recycling and boosted imports, effectively alleviating raw material bottlenecks. Despite a slight month-on-month decline in refined copper production, year-on-year growth remains robust. This has led to relatively loose supply in the copper market, exerting downward pressure on prices.
On the demand side, the performance of downstream enterprises has been less than satisfactory. Although downstream enterprises have continued to resume production and work, coupled with recent declines in Shanghai copper futures prices, downstream procurement willingness has increased, and order activity has risen. However, overall demand remains relatively weak. Power investment remains stable, while automotive production and sales are growing. However, home appliance production schedules are declining, and the real estate sector continues to be sluggish. The incremental demand from AI data centers is still insufficient to offset the gap in traditional industries. The slow resumption of downstream production has led to a continuous influx of domestic supplies, resulting in accumulated social inventories and hindered destocking. The spot market exhibits characteristics of “having prices but no market.” While suppliers are strong in maintaining prices and have stabilized premiums, downstream buyers remain highly reluctant to pay high prices, resulting in minimal transactions for high-priced goods.
In summary: In the short term, copper prices will face dual pressures from geopolitical risks and inventory concerns. Meanwhile, the domestic reality of “high inventory and weak demand” also limits upward momentum. From a medium-term perspective, copper prices still have some support. Overseas mine supply growth remains sluggish, refined copper production capacity expansion is extremely limited, global visible inventory is rising but U.S. copper accounts for a high proportion, and the tight balance of fundamentals persists. Copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating broadly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

This week (3.2-5), the domestic PVC market continued to show a strong trend, with a significant increase in futures leading to a rise in spot prices. Downstream work gradually resumed and exports rushed to support market sentiment. However, social inventory remains high, and there is still pressure for price increases. According to data from Shengyi Society, the SG-5 PVC carbide method in East China increased by 3.61% this week, and the current market price is in the range of 4850-4900 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
On the supply side, the current operating rate of the PVC industry remains at about 80%, which is generally at a neutral to high level. The operating rate of the calcium carbide method has been slightly reduced, while the ethylene method has slightly increased. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, and the marginal pressure on supply has been alleviated.
On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream pipe and profile enterprises has rebounded to over 60%, and the operating rate of soft products and packaging has also exceeded 60%, gradually releasing the demand for essential goods; Affected by the upcoming cancellation of export tax rebates, there was a rush to sign foreign trade orders in March, which provided certain support to the market.
In terms of inventory, domestic PVC companies have a stock of 504000 tons, a slight decrease compared to the previous period, but social inventory still reaches a high of 1.353 million tons, which is at a high level in recent years, an increase of 58% year-on-year, and is still an important factor restricting the sustained strengthening of prices.
On the cost side, the price of raw material calcium carbide is running weakly. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of calcium carbide has fallen by 0.65% in March, and the cost support for calcium carbide PVC has weakened; The cost of ethylene production is greatly affected by fluctuations in international crude oil and ethylene prices.
3、 Future forecast
Overall, Business Society believes that. In the short term, PVC has shown strong performance driven by the strengthening of crude oil, downstream resumption of work, export rush, and partial maintenance. However, the pattern of high inventory and supply exceeding demand has not changed, and it is expected that the future market will mainly be volatile, with limited sustained upward momentum.

This week, the melamine market was affected by the geopolitical event in the Strait of Hormuz and the resonance of domestic spring farming demand, resulting in a rapid upward trend in prices, presenting a cost dominant, supply-demand tight, and high-level oscillation pattern, becoming a strong product in the chemical sector.

1、 Market performance
As of March 4th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6150 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.02% and a cumulative increase of 4.05% in the past 5 days. The price has hit the high range of the year. Domestic mainstream factories have raised their quotations by 50-350 yuan/ton, resulting in tight spot circulation and sufficient orders from manufacturers. The focus of transactions has steadily shifted upwards, and downstream industries such as sheet metal and adhesives are following up as needed, with strong ability to handle urgent needs.
2、 Core driver
The passage through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Iran’s methanol exports are restricted, and 60% of China’s imported methanol relies on Middle Eastern sources. The daily increase in methanol spot prices exceeds 7%, directly pushing up the production cost of urea; Urea, as the core raw material of melamine, has been raised to 1800-1870 yuan/ton in the main production areas, forming a cost transmission chain of methanol → urea → melamine, providing strong support for the price of triamine. At the same time, the increase in crude oil and shipping costs further raises the cost center of the entire chemical industry chain.
Supply and demand fundamentals support
1. Supply side: The industry’s operating rate remains at 55% -60%. After the Spring Festival, some equipment maintenance has not been fully restored, and the pace of new capacity release is relatively slow. The market’s spot supply is limited, and manufacturers’ reluctance to sell is heating up.
2. Demand side: After the holiday, the sheet metal and molding plastic industries have fully resumed work, and spring plowing and fertilizer preparation have driven the peak season of urea demand. Downstream demand for replenishment has been released, and the market is supported by basic needs, with no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory.
Dual support of cost and emotion
The support for the peak season of urea spring plowing has not subsided, coupled with the geographical premium of methanol, the cost side of melamine continues to strengthen; The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and traders are moderately stocking up, further boosting prices and forming a positive cycle of “cost increase → quotation increase → transaction follow-up”.
3、 Market risk
The upward trend in the market is still subject to multiple constraints: the overcapacity pattern of melamine in China has not changed, and the resumption of production and the introduction of new production capacity in the future will suppress the increase; The downstream demand for sheet metal is moderately recovering, and high prices may trigger resistance; If the Strait of Hormuz resumes operations, the decline in methanol will weaken cost support; At the same time, urea is subject to supply guarantee and price limit constraints, which indirectly limits the upward potential of triamine.
4、 Trend prediction
Short term (mid March): Strong fluctuations at high levels, with a price range of 6100-6400 yuan/ton. The geopolitical premium has not dissipated, supported by urea spring plowing and tight supply, and the upward trend continues but narrows.
Mid term (late March to April): gradually peaking and falling back. The demand for spring plowing has receded, urea has weakened, coupled with a rebound in supply, cost support has weakened, prices have returned to fundamentals, and the fluctuation range has moved down to 5800-6100 yuan/ton.

In recent times, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has suddenly escalated, and shipping safety risks in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified. International crude oil prices have surged significantly, leading to the overall strengthening of energy driven sectors. As an important synthetic rubber variety downstream of crude oil, butadiene rubber (BR) has seen a significant increase driven by cost and sentiment.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 3, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13670 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.07% from 13010 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainly affected by increased inventory, decreased raw material prices, and insufficient downstream production after the holiday.
The surge in crude oil prices has opened up space for cost increases
The Middle East conflict directly impacts the global energy supply chain, with Brent crude oil and domestic crude oil futures soaring significantly. The price of raw materials for butadiene rubber has risen, providing solid bottom support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 3rd, the price of butadiene was 10293 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00% from 9993 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
On the 3rd, the futures of Shunding rubber significantly jumped short and opened high, and the spot market followed suit positively. Mainstream suppliers such as PetroChina and Sinopec raised their ex factory prices, while spot prices in East China, North China, and Shandong collectively rose, and the weekly increase significantly expanded.
High inventory pressure, slow demand repair
After the holiday, the overall operation of domestic butadiene rubber plants will remain at 80% load, and the market supply is abundant. However, some plants are scheduled for maintenance in March, and there is a marginal contraction expectation on the supply side. But after the holiday, social inventory continued to accumulate to a high level, becoming the main suppressing factor for price increases and limiting the room for growth. Downstream tire companies are gradually resuming work and production, but the recovery is slow. In the early stage, overall procurement was mainly based on demand, and there is currently a weak willingness to chase after high prices. The demand side has not yet formed a strong driving force.
Overall, the recent rise in butadiene rubber prices is a result of both cost and emotional benefits brought about by the Middle East conflict, rather than a fundamental reversal in supply and demand patterns. Before the conflict clearly eases, crude oil is prone to rise but difficult to fall, and the pattern of strong fluctuations in butadiene rubber continues. However, high inventory and weak reality will lead to a fluctuating upward rhythm and significantly increased volatility.