In August, the domestic acrylonitrile market price opened significantly higher at 12000-12500 yuan/ton, an increase of 600-700 yuan/ton compared to the end of July. Since the price began to rise in mid July, the current increase has reached 3000 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 32.1%. The contraction of supply side is the direct factor leading to the market’s sharp rise, coupled with the continuous low inventory in the industry, the concentrated replenishment of intermediaries, the support of crude oil costs, and the willingness of enterprises to repair losses. The passive follow-up replenishment of essential demand buying is released, and the bullish sentiment in the market is concentrated. Production enterprises continue to raise their listing prices, and the focus of spot trading is synchronously lifted. In the off-season, the market is rising against the trend.

As of August 5th, the ex tank price of acrylonitrile in the spot market of East China ports has reached 12300-12400 yuan/ton, and the Shandong market has also remained at 12000 yuan/ton. The current price has exceeded the market high in the context of the Middle East conflict in April and is also higher than the price surge level stimulated by unexpected supply contraction in the first quarter of last year. The rapid and significant increase in prices this time is not only due to the continuous shortage of spot resources, but also due to the reduction in contract supply, and the simultaneous reduction of supply in the north and south, which stimulates the market to rise significantly.
Continuous low inventory in the acrylonitrile industry
Prior to this round of price increases, the overall inventory of acrylonitrile in the domestic industry was already at a moderately low level. During the first half of July, due to weak demand and increased supply, prices quickly fell back to nearly 9000 yuan/ton. During this period, inventory further decreased to a lower level, especially in acrylonitrile factories where inventory was not high. Subsequently, the price rebounded due to cost push, but due to the general bearish outlook of the industry, low inventory operations were still maintained.
Unplanned parking or reduced load supply of the device, phased centralized reduction in quantity
Starting from late July, domestic maintenance has been concentrated and the supply of goods has significantly contracted. Under the accumulation of sustained low inventory in the early stage, it is difficult to find a single commodity in the acrylonitrile market, which stimulates further price increases.
Entering the first week of August, the acrylonitrile shutdown plant has not yet recovered, and the long-term supply downturn has once again intensified. Zhenhai Refining and Chemical plans to reduce the plant load to 50-60% by mid August, and the main source of goods in East China will be further reduced, strengthening the market’s expectation of long-term shortage in advance. The industry’s capacity utilization rate will remain below 70%. Although some devices are expected to recover in the future, uncertainty still leads to cautious market sentiment, and the prices of holders remain firm at high levels.
Significant increase in production profits
While the price of acrylonitrile is rapidly rising, the upstream price of propylene is showing a downward trend. Among them, the price of propylene in the Shandong market has gradually dropped to 8000 yuan/ton and fluctuated at a lower level, and the price difference between the two has expanded to 4000 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit margin of acrylonitrile production has significantly increased. The considerable profits will drive the active restart and recovery of the shutdown equipment in the future, and the acrylonitrile market is currently consolidating under the expectation of increased supply.

Downstream demand is weak during the off-season
Due to the significant increase in acrylonitrile prices this round, it was mainly driven by the favorable supply side contraction, while the demand side remained flat. The construction of the acrylic fiber sector remains stable, with a need for normalized rigid procurement; ABS、 Downstream mainstream products such as acrylamide have been dragged down by sluggish orders for household appliances and plastic terminals, resulting in a continuous decline in plant production. The overall demand is weak, making it difficult to match the pace of spot price increases. Faced with the rapid rise in raw material prices and the increasing resistance of downstream factories, there is a multi-dimensional demand for on-demand procurement mode, and large-scale hoarding behavior is rare. Therefore, as supply begins to gradually recover, there will be expectations of a downturn in the market, but it is still necessary to pay attention to supply side fluctuations as variables continue to exist.
Future forecast
In mid to late August, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will increase its efforts to reduce production capacity, while facilities such as Selbang will gradually increase their production capacity. In September, 660000 tons of new production capacity will be gradually put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in overall supply at that time. Overall, it is expected that during the first half of August, due to the low inventory in the industry, the tight balance pattern of domestic spot goods will be difficult to quickly ease. However, as the profit of acrylonitrile production continues to recover, there is a possibility of a slight negative offset gap in some operating units; At the same time, some overseas maintenance facilities have resumed production, and the increase in imported goods has entered the market. The price of acrylonitrile is expected to fall, but it may still maintain a relatively high level of operation. The pace of decline may accelerate in mid to late August as supply resumes. It is recommended that industrial chain enterprises purchase according to their needs, avoid blindly chasing high prices and stocking up, and control their own raw material safety stock.

1、 Market Overview
In July, domestic PA66 spot prices showed an overall trend of stabilizing at a low level and rebounding slightly, before falling back and oscillating again at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the spot price remained stable at 18366.67 yuan/ton. In the middle and late of the month, there was a brief sideways consolidation, and at the end of the month, it began to face downward pressure. On August 4th, the spot price fell back to 18133.33 yuan/ton. The overall fluctuation space during the month was narrow, and the price remained in the mid to low range of the one-year cycle, indicating a weak overall market trend. From the perspective of the moving average signal, the short-term moving average in the first half of the month crossed the long-term moving average and experienced a slight rebound. In the second half of the month, the 5-day and 10 day moving averages successively crossed the long-term moving average, and the upward momentum of the market dissipated, causing prices to once again enter a downward channel.
2、 Cost analysis
The supply of raw material adiponitrile to external sources is stable, and there is limited disturbance in overseas plant maintenance, resulting in narrow fluctuations in external raw material prices; The trend of upstream basic chemical raw materials such as benzene and cyclohexane remained stable within the month, while the bottom support for PA66 production costs was weak, and there was no significant driving force for price increases on the raw material side.
The domestic production capacity of adiponitrile continues to be released, the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials in the industry continues to increase, and there is ample room for cost control of raw materials; In mid to late July, the recovery speed of downstream production load was slower than expected, and factories actively compressed raw material procurement. The slow accumulation of upstream raw material inventory further limited the price increase space of PA66 chips. Overall, it is difficult for the cost side to drive up slice prices this month, and the market trend is mainly dominated by downstream supply and demand fundamentals.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
1. Supply side
Most mainstream PA66 production facilities in China are operating normally, and the overall operating rate of the industry is at a medium to high level, with sufficient supply of spot goods in the market; Some enterprises flexibly schedule production according to demand and moderately control production to reduce pressure during periods of low market conditions, but the overall inventory pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated.
The low market level during the month attracted some traders to hoard goods, and factory spot inventory shifted to the circulation link, resulting in a slight increase in social inventory; The market supply of goods is loose, and manufacturers have started to lower their spot prices at the end of the month to promote shipments and benefit downstream customers.
2. Demand side
July belongs to the traditional off-season for downstream nylon consumption, with fewer orders for terminal automotive parts and construction machinery parts; Downstream factories in the textile and chemical fiber modification fields are mostly maintaining their demand for goods, and their willingness to stock up on a large scale is low.
After the slicing price hit bottom in the first ten days, downstream enterprises carried out a round of replenishment operations, driving the price to briefly sideways; As the off-season atmosphere continues to deepen, downstream finished product inventory accumulates, factories gradually lower their operating rates, and procurement demand rapidly cools down. At the end of the month, downstream purchases were made on demand, and market transactions weakened, causing spot prices to fall under pressure. The overall weak downstream demand is the core factor that makes it difficult for the PA66 market to strengthen in July.

4、 Short term forecast
The short-term PA66 market is still under pressure and fluctuating. The cost side raw material market is stable and there is no strong support; At present, the price has fallen back to the low range of the cycle, and the downward space is limited.
The downstream industry is about to enter the traditional peak season pre stocking cycle, and there are expectations of a rebound in orders for the automotive and textile industries in mid to late August; However, at present, the recovery speed of terminal orders is relatively slow, and it is difficult to see a significant increase in the short term. The market is likely to remain in a low range and fluctuate, waiting for the release of downstream peak season demand.

Recently, the formic acid market as a whole has shown a significant decline, with a weak operating trend. The overall market is under significant pressure, with a significant month on month decline. As of August 4th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 1800 yuan/ton, which showed a significant decline from the previous high point. The overall market atmosphere was quiet, and the transaction activity was insufficient. The industry as a whole was in a weak off-season, and the supply-demand imbalance was the core factor leading the price decline in this round.
The oversupply of loose supply is the core driving force behind the continued weakness of formic acid prices this week. This week, the overall operating rate of domestic formic acid production enterprises remained stable, mainstream factories were running smoothly, the overall supply of goods in the industry was sufficient, and the accumulation of spot inventory in the market was significant. In the early stage, most companies had sufficient inventory, coupled with the continuous release of new sources of goods into the market, leading to a gradual increase in inventory pressure in the industry. In order to quickly digest inventory and recover funds, most production enterprises and traders actively lowered their ex factory quotations, resulting in a widespread phenomenon of discounted shipments, further lowering the overall market quotation level and driving down spot prices. The supply side of the market is completely in a loose pattern of oversupply.
Downstream demand remains weak, making it difficult to support price stabilization and recovery. At present, it is the off-season for traditional chemical consumption, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as leather, printing and dyeing, pharmaceuticals, and rubber additives in formic acid are generally low. Terminal enterprises lack orders and production enthusiasm. Downstream manufacturers mainly purchase small orders for essential needs, with little willingness to stock up. The overall transaction volume in the market is relatively small, and there is a lack of favorable support for centralized procurement. The sustained sluggishness on the demand side has led to a sluggish market buying atmosphere, exacerbating the problem of supply-demand mismatch, and completely losing the driving force for price increases, which is an important reason for the continued weakness of the market.
The cost and market mentality further exacerbate the weak market situation. The price of methanol, the core raw material for formic acid, has been fluctuating weakly recently, and the support for production costs is insufficient. The pressure on production costs for enterprises has eased, providing space for price reduction and shipment. At the same time, affected by the continuous price reduction trend, the market has a strong bearish sentiment, and traders are generally cautious in trading, lowering prices and shipping according to the market. The wait-and-see mentality of terminal procurement has intensified, forming a weak cycle of “price reduction wait-and-see further price reduction”, and the overall market trading sentiment is sluggish.
Overall, in the past week, the formic acid market has been in a weak adjustment stage due to multiple negative factors such as loose supply, off-season demand, and weak mentality. Prices have continued to decline. In the short term, there is no obvious sign of recovery in terminal demand, and industry inventory pressure still exists. It is expected that the formic acid market will continue to fluctuate weakly in the future, and it is difficult for prices to stabilize and recover. The market may continue to operate at a low level, and specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

This week, the domestic melamine market has shown strong performance, with the price center steadily shifting upwards. As of August 3rd, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6212.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40% from the beginning of this month. Against the backdrop of stable raw material urea prices, melamine has emerged from an independent upward trend based on its own supply and demand pattern, and technical indicators show that the upward momentum is strengthening.

1、 Spot market: Ladder like upward trend, stable short-term high
From the recent price trend, the melamine market has shown a clear “two in, one out” or “tiered” upward trend:
Price performance: At the beginning of the week (July 27th), the price was 6125.00 yuan/ton, followed by a slight fluctuation and consolidation. On July 31st, it broke through the 6187.50 yuan/ton mark and further climbed to a high point of 6212.50 yuan/ton in early August. Although the daily fluctuation on August 2nd was 0.00%, the overall upward trend of the center of gravity has not changed.
Raw material comparison: The upstream urea benchmark price is 1757.50 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. The rise in melamine prices is not driven by costs, but rather by the industry’s own tightening of supply or improvement in demand, which has restored product profit margins.
The current price has fully occupied the “high” range of the past 10, 20, 30, and 60 days. It is worth noting that although the price is at a high level in the short to medium term, it is still at a “medium low” and “low” level in the long-term dimensions of the 90 day and one-year cycles. This means that in the long run, the current price is still in the rebound stage after bottom repair, and there is still long-term space above.
2、 Technical analysis: Long position of moving averages, accelerating upward momentum
Based on the analysis of the moving average index and moving average system, the current market is releasing positive bullish signals:
Moving average pattern: Both the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average show a smooth upward trend. In particular, the slope of the 10 day moving average is steeper, consistently above the 20 day moving average, forming a standard ‘bullish alignment’.
Moving average signal: Currently, the 10 day moving average is above the 20 day moving average, and the opening distance between the two lines is gradually increasing. According to the core principle, this indicates that the upward trend is accelerating, the buying force is stronger than the selling force, market sentiment is high, and there is a greater possibility of price inertia rising in the short term.
Although the trend is positive, the price has already reached a “high” level in the short term (10-60 days), which usually means that short-term profit opportunities are relatively abundant. If the subsequent trading volume cannot continue to increase, we need to be alert to the demand for high-level oscillation digestion.
3、 Supply and demand game and future prospects
The core logic of the current melamine market is “tight supply supporting price increases”:
Supply side: Maintenance or load reduction of some devices have led to a decrease in market supply, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, resulting in less inventory pressure. This is the main driving force behind price increases.
On the demand side: The downstream sheet metal and compound fertilizer industries have a decent acceptance of high priced raw materials, and the demand for essential purchases remains stable. Coupled with the contraction of the supply side, they have jointly pushed up market prices.
Future outlook:

In the short term, the melamine market is expected to continue its strong and volatile trend. The signal of “positive expansion” on a technical level supports prices to continue exploring upward pressure levels. However, as prices enter the short-term “high” zone and move away from the long-term moving average, the market may face technical corrections or sideways consolidation at any time to repair indicators. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in the manufacturer’s operating rate and downstream procurement pace. If there is a signal of excessive volume stagnation, attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback.

This month (7.1-7.31), the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose at a high level. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 391410 yuan/ton, and as of July 31, the average market price was 426660 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.01%.

In July, the tin market experienced a roller coaster ride of rising, falling, and then rebounding, with significantly increased price fluctuations. Analyze the trend of tin prices in July by combining technical and fundamental factors.
supply side
Supply side constraints persist. The progress of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar has fallen short of expectations, and the rainy season has suppressed shipments from the mining end. As a result, the production capacity can only be restored to the top four to 50% of the shutdown throughout the year. Indonesia’s export quotas continue to tighten. Although the processing fee for tin concentrate has slightly increased, the global reserves of tin ore resources continue to shrink, and the tone of tight balance in the mining sector has not changed.
Demand side
Presenting structural differentiation. AI computing power and semiconductor solder demand provide long-term incremental growth, with solder accounting for over 40% of tin consumption over the long term. However, July and August are the traditional off-season for consumption, and downstream consumers have a clear fear of high prices, which suppresses purchasing volume.
Inventory end
The inventory side is the most crucial bullish variable for July. As of July 31st, LME tin inventory has dropped to an extremely low level of 6010 tons, while the previous period’s tin inventory was 4341 tons on July 31st. Global explicit inventory is at a historical low, and there is a tight supply of deliverable goods. According to a research report by Guojin Securities, the hidden inventory of tin ingots is gradually drying up, and the low inventory pattern provides strong bottom support for tin prices.
comprehensive analysis
Tin prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term under the support of low inventory and tight mining conditions. But the upward space is limited by the capacity of the demand side. The current price is at a historical high, and downstream solder companies tend to purchase according to orders and have limited willingness to stock up. The inhibitory effect of high prices on demand is gradually becoming apparent. It is expected that the supply and demand will show a balanced and loose pattern in the second half of the year, and there is a lack of driving force for tin prices to reach new highs.
Overall, tin prices are likely to remain high and fluctuate widely in August, with a reference range of 410000-435000 yuan/ton. If AI and semiconductor orders are concentrated in the third quarter, demand narrative may once again dominate the market; On the contrary, if the macro bearish fermentation or Wa State’s resumption of production exceeds expectations, there is a risk of correction. In the low inventory pattern, attention should be paid to every opportunity for a pullback.

The magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region has slightly increased, with an average market price of 15950 yuan/ton as of now, and an average price of 15850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 0.63%.
This month’s market analysis

In July, the domestic magnesium ingot market showed an overall operating pattern of “first suppression, then rebound, and low bottom grinding”. At the beginning of the month, the price hovered around 15850 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, it fell to around 15700 yuan/ton due to the drag of traditional off-season demand. At the end of the month, it stabilized and rebounded to 16000 yuan/ton due to cost support and supply contraction.
Fundamentals: The loose supply and demand pattern has not changed, and cost support is building the bottom
On the supply side, some magnesium plants in the main production areas arranged for high-temperature season maintenance and reduced production in July, resulting in a short-term supply contraction. However, the companies that stopped production for maintenance in the early stage have gradually resumed production, and the overall market supply has not shown a significant contraction; The inventory in the factory has accumulated slightly, and the pressure of magnesium factory shipments still exists.
The demand side continues to show weakness. July and August are the traditional off-season for consumption in the magnesium industry, with downstream terminals only maintaining essential purchases without centralized replenishment or new orders; In terms of overseas markets, customers in Europe, America and other regions have entered the summer vacation period, and foreign trade orders have significantly declined. The simultaneous weakening of internal and external demand is the core factor suppressing the rebound of magnesium prices.
The cost side constitutes the strongest bottom support currently. The current magnesium price has fallen to a nearly 7-month low, and magnesium factories in the main production areas have long-term production and sales inversion, resulting in losses of hundreds of yuan per ton. The comprehensive cost rigidity of dolomite, blue charcoal, ferrosilicon, electricity, labor, and environmental maintenance has become prominent, and the willingness of factories to lower prices and ship has significantly decreased. Cost support has become the core factor that makes it difficult for prices to continue to fall deeply.
Future forecast
Short term narrow range oscillation, trend rebound still needs to wait for demand signals. The magnesium market is likely to continue its consolidation trend in August, with a slight upward shift in price focus due to seasonal demand recovery. However, the reversal of trend still needs to wait for substantial improvement in fundamentals.

In July 2026, the domestic price of 1 # antimony ingots continued to weaken, with an average price of 116500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 91750 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a cumulative decrease of 21.24% during the month. The market’s good news for the whole month is scarce, and the rebound in antimony prices lacks sustainability, resulting in significant differences in market participants’ mentality. Combined with the traditional off-season dragging down demand and the continuous influx of low-priced overseas goods, the downward trend is driven by fundamental pressure.

Supply side:
The loose circulation of global antimony resources, the continuous existence of low-priced sources in overseas markets, the expectation of overseas production capacity adjustment, and the independent development plans of key mineral resources in various countries continue to suppress market expectations. The overall supply level of imported raw materials remains relatively high. Although the export of some overseas raw materials has tightened, imported goods continue to flow into the domestic market, and the market circulation of goods is relatively sufficient. There was a significant fluctuation in warehouse receipts during the delivery stage of the month, but this change was only a transfer of circulation within the market, and the goods did not enter the end consumer sector. The overall inventory of the industry did not receive substantial destocking, making it difficult to form effective supply support.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. June is the off-season for traditional consumption of antimony products, and the overall market consumption atmosphere is sluggish, with weak overall support for demand
Antimony oxide: The downstream market of traditional antimony oxide has shown weak performance, and the flame retardant industry has entered the traditional consumption off-season. The operating level of terminal industries has generally declined. Downstream manufacturers tend to adopt a cautious procurement strategy, often adopting an on-demand purchasing model, only maintaining rigid production materials, and lacking centralized replenishment actions. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the increase in orders is limited, making it difficult to transmit upward and drive the increase in raw material procurement. The driving force for the consumption of antimony ingots is relatively weak.
Photovoltaic: As the main downstream sector of antimony oxide, photovoltaic glass is still in a period of capacity contraction in the industry as a whole. Most production lines continue to implement cold repair plans, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate is at a low level. Although some production lines resumed production during this period, which brought some emotional boost, it was not enough to change the overall trend of industry production reduction. The game between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain continues, and the price suppression behavior at the component end makes it difficult for glass companies to implement their price increase plans. The overall shipment of photovoltaic glass has not shown significant improvement, and the corresponding increase in antimony raw material consumption is limited. Emerging demands such as semiconductors and batteries are still in the cultivation stage and cannot make up for the demand gap in traditional industries in the short term.
Market forecast:
The short-term market is still constrained by the off-season atmosphere, making it difficult for terminal demand to improve rapidly, and antimony ingot prices are likely to maintain a weak operating pattern. After a sustained decline, production costs will become an important price support line, and the market’s focus is gradually waiting for the expected improvement in demand brought by the traditional peak season in the third quarter. The subsequent market trend requires tracking the scale of overseas raw material inflows and changes in domestic raw material supply; On the other hand, observe the stocking pace of downstream industries. If there is a contraction in raw material supply, coupled with the orderly release of downstream peak season demand, antimony prices are expected to usher in an opportunity for stabilization; If external sources continue to flood in and terminal demand does not recover as expected, the weak market pattern may continue.

1、 This week’s market summary: Stop falling and rebound, strong upward trend

This week (July 21-27, 2026), the domestic melamine market experienced a significant “V-shaped” reversal. In the early stage, the market continued to experience weak fluctuations, with prices hovering at low levels; Until the weekend (July 27th), the market experienced a strong outbreak, successfully ending the continuous decline and achieving a rebound from the decline.
As of July 27th, the benchmark price of melamine soared to 6125.00 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 2.08% compared to the previous trading day (6000.00 yuan/ton). From a monthly perspective, the current price has increased by 1.24% compared to the 6050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, indicating a significant rebound in market sentiment.
2、 Trend feature analysis: Breakthrough after bottoming out consolidation
Looking at this week’s price trend chart, the price of melamine showed a slow downward trend from July 21st to 26th, with the 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average falling synchronously. The price remained suppressed within a narrow range of 6000-6025 yuan/ton, oscillating and bottoming out.
The turning point occurred on July 27th, when spot prices surged and broke through the 6100 yuan/ton mark in a single day. The red 10 day moving average in the chart hit its lowest point on July 26th and quickly rose sharply on July 27th, forming a convergence or even upward trend with the blue 20 day moving average, indicating strong short-term bullish power and sufficient rebound momentum.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, after several days of bottoming out, the melamine market successfully achieved a breakthrough this weekend. The technical signal of “moving average crossing” resonates with the fundamental rebound, greatly boosting market confidence in the short term. It is expected that under the support of demand and market sentiment, the price of melamine is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern. In the future, attention should be paid to the follow-up of downstream demand and changes in plant operating rates.

This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an average market price of 415370 yuan/ton on July 20th and 411670 yuan/ton as of July 24th, a decrease of 0.89%.

This week, tin prices showed a typical trend of “rising first and then falling”. At the beginning of the week, they were strongly boosted by geopolitical premiums and low inventory support, fluctuating at a high level in the middle of the week, and experiencing a fierce pullback over the weekend.
Macroscopic perspective
The macro level constitutes the main suppressive force. The non farm payroll data for May in the United States exceeded expectations and was strong. Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike sharply increased, and the US dollar index hit a 13 month high, putting overall pressure on US dollar denominated base metals. At the same time, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced two rounds of sharp declines, directly impacting the demand expectations for “computing power metals”, and the AI narrative that had previously supported the strengthening of tin prices was temporarily shaken.
Supply and demand side:
On the supply side, the mining side continues to be tight, but the margin has not deteriorated. Myanmar’s resumption of production fell short of expectations. The Wa State in Myanmar is currently in the rainy season (May to July), and the progress of resuming production in mining areas continues to be slow. The mining ban policy has not been substantially relaxed yet. The tight mining situation has not changed, but the rainy season is a seasonal factor, and the market has already had sufficient expectations for it. Indonesia’s exports have declined. The Indonesian government continues to crack down on illegal mining and tighten export regulations, resulting in a year-on-year decline in refined tin exports, further narrowing the global supply elasticity. The overall stability of domestic smelting production. The overall production of smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable, and the tight mining situation has not yet transformed into a significant reduction in refined tin production.
On the demand side, there is a strong sense of fear and wait-and-see attitude downstream. After the sharp rise in spot prices, downstream companies maintained their demand for essential purchases and on-demand access, while the procurement of solder and electronic enterprises above 410000 yuan/ton significantly slowed down. Being in the traditional off-season of consumption, the actual consumption intensity is not as expected. Relative preference for soldering orders. Soldering has stable demand support and strong support for tin prices; But the overall market situation is average for shipments, and some traditional consumer sectors still need to recover. AI needs to provide structural support. AI servers use four times more tin than traditional devices, driving the global tin market to experience a shortage of nearly 10000 tons for the fifth consecutive year. Green transformation, electrification, and the AI industry can help boost additional demand.
Inventory end
The simultaneous destocking of the two major exchanges has provided the strongest bottom support for tin prices due to low inventory.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high and wide range next week, with resistance in the range of 420000-425000 yuan/ton. Lower support: in the range of 400000 to 406000 yuan/ton. Low inventory and supply risk provide strong support around 400000 yuan/ton.

This week (7.19-7.24), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region rose, with an average market price of 15725 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15900 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.11%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:

Supply and demand side
Supply side maintenance and production reduction continue, but the incremental contraction is limited. Recently, some magnesium factories in the main production areas have arranged maintenance and production reduction during the high-temperature season, resulting in a contraction of short-term supply increment. The industry’s operating rate has significantly fallen from its high level, and many original magnesium smelting enterprises have entered a period of shutdown and maintenance. However, some manufacturers’ maintenance plans are concentrated in mid to late July, and as some companies resume production, production is expected to bottom out and stabilize. At the same time, there is a slight accumulation of inventory in the factory, and the pressure of magnesium factory shipments still exists.
The off-season effect on the demand side is significant, with both internal and external demand weakening synchronously. Currently, it is the off-season for traditional consumption in the magnesium industry, and downstream procurement demand continues to weaken. In terms of the domestic market, downstream only maintains essential procurement, overall transaction volume is light, and there is no centralized replenishment of inventory or new orders at the terminal. Traders tend to be cautious and focus on buying and selling at will, without actively hoarding goods. In terms of overseas markets, customers in Europe, America and other regions have entered the summer vacation period, and foreign trade orders have significantly declined. The magnesium alloy market also presents the characteristics of “weak follow-up of terminal demand and light trading volume”.
raw material end
Rigid cost construction for bottom support. The current magnesium price has fallen to a nearly 7-month low, and magnesium factories in the main production areas have long-term production and sales inversion, resulting in losses of hundreds of yuan per ton. The comprehensive cost rigidity of dolomite, blue charcoal, ferrosilicon, electricity, labor, and environmental maintenance is highlighted. Continued low-priced shipments will further expand operating losses, resulting in a significant decrease in the willingness of magnesium factories to lower prices and offer discounts for shipments. The cost side support has become the core factor that makes it difficult for the current price to continue to fall deeply.
integrated forecasting
Taking into account both fundamental and technical factors, the short-term magnesium price is expected to continue its pattern of low, weak stability, and narrow fluctuations. Before there is a substantial improvement signal on the demand side, it is difficult for magnesium prices to break out of the trend rebound market, and it is likely to continue to fluctuate and bottom out in the low range.