I. Trend Analysis

According to data monitored by the Business Society, copper prices surged significantly this week. By the 12th, the price reached 93,903.33 yuan per ton, hitting a 15-year high. This marks a 2.6-fold increase from the low point in June 2016 and a nearly 27.19% rise year-to-date.
The piles of copper in U.S. warehouses are higher than mountains
The copper stockpiles in U.S. warehouses are higher than mountains, while factories in the rest of the world are nearly running out of supplies. The copper inventory at the U.S. Comex warehouse has surged to over 400,000 tons, a 300% spike from the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, in regions outside the U.S. that consume 90% of the world’s copper, inventory shortages have forced some factories to cut production. A global resource reallocation triggered by unilateral U.S. policies is unfolding. In February, the U.S. introduced measures likely to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported copper by 2026. As soon as the policy was announced, traders rushed to secure supplies, diverting copper originally destined for Asia back to the U.S.
Mokorey plans to withdraw 40,000 tons of copper from the LME Asia warehouse
Swiss commodities trader Mercuria has notified its plans to withdraw over 40,000 tons of copper from warehouses in Asia at the London Metal Exchange (LME). This withdrawal will reduce the exchange’s inventory by more than half, potentially causing a severe shortage in the global copper market.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected
On December 10 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a scheduled 25-basis-point interest rate cut, marking the third reduction of the year. Starting Friday, the Fed resumed purchasing short-term treasury bonds, reigniting the expansion of its balance sheet. This move has heightened expectations for global liquidity easing, which is favorable for copper prices.
fundamentals
Global supply remains tight
Major mine production continues to be disrupted, compounded by the U.S. siphoning effect, which has led to a steady influx of copper inventory into the U.S. market, heightening concerns about supply shortages in non-U.S. regions. Leading market institutions remain optimistic, projecting that LME copper prices will remain above $11,000 per ton in 2026, potentially approaching $12,000 by year-end, while Shanghai copper prices are expected to near 96,000 yuan. Currently, global mines face numerous adjustments, with short-term supply growth constrained, low ore grades, and significant challenges in investment and extraction.
Demand side
The global energy transition, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, and grid upgrades are accelerating the expansion of copper demand, with promising prospects for demand and a further widening supply gap. Downstream players are adopting a wait-and-see approach amid high prices, while mandatory procurement and weekend restocking needs remain limited, resulting in insufficient market buying interest.
LME copper inventory falls
Recently, LME copper inventories experienced a slight decline. As of the 12th, LME copper inventories stood at 158,375 tons, down 3.75% from the beginning of the week.
Market Outlook:

In summary, on the raw material side, the copper concentrate processing fee index has fallen again. Chile has raised the premium for copper spot prices in China, and domestic CSPT members will reduce copper mining capacity by 10% next year, exacerbating market concerns about tight copper supply. On the demand side, supported by expectations of overseas interest rate cuts and raw material costs, copper prices remain strong. In the short term, high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment, and downstream attitudes have become cautious, mainly focusing on restocking for essential needs. The supply gap in non US regions continues to widen, with domestic copper inventories continuing to decline and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. However, high prices limit downstream procurement, and it is expected that copper prices will still have room for upward movement, with strong volatility.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on December 11th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9620 yuan/ton, which was 130 yuan/ton lower than the market price of silicon metal # 441 on December 1st (9750 yuan/ton), a decrease of 1.33%.

The market lacks limited support and is trending downwards
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that as we enter December, the domestic spot market for silicon metal is showing a weak downward trend. In the first ten days, there are no obvious positive signals in the silicon metal market, and multiple brands in the market have undergone varying degrees of price adjustments. As of December 11th, the market price of metallic silicon 441 # in East China is around 9300-9500 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of about 100-200 yuan/ton in the first half of the year. The market price of oxygen 553 # is around 9100-9300 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of about 100-300 yuan/ton in the first half of the year. The market price of 421 # is around 9500-9800 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of about 100-300 yuan/ton in the first half of the year.
Fundamental situation
On the supply side: Currently, the overall production of metal silicon in the northern and southern regions is still polarized, with the dry season having arrived. The production in the southern region is at a low level, while there is a slight increase in production in the northern region. However, the overall production cost of metal silicon has increased, and some silicon companies have experienced cost inversion. Therefore, there is a clear reluctance to sell, which has led to a weak willingness to sell and a stagnant supply performance.
On the demand side: Currently, after the market situation has fallen to a relatively low level, some downstream users have made bargain hunting purchases, but the overall wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is still strong. The improvement brought by the demand side to the market is average, and the weak supply-demand situation still exists.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is light and mild, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment towards the future market. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the metal silicon market will mostly adjust and operate within a narrow range. In the future, more attention should be paid to the impact of factory start-up adjustments on the production side.

Silver surged 5%

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver market on December 10, 2025 was 14319 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 4.95%, which is 6.75% higher than the average price of 13414 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (December 1); Compared to the beginning of the year (January 1st), the average price of silver in the market was 7450 yuan/kg, an increase of 92.20%.
On December 10, 2025, the benchmark price of Shanghai Silver (silver ingots with a standard weight of 15 kilograms and a purity of not less than 99.99%, pricing contract) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 14318 yuan/kg, an increase of 739 yuan/kg from the benchmark price of 13579 yuan/kg on the previous trading day.
On December 10th, silver futures and spot prices continued to reach new highs, with London silver rising nearly 1% and Shanghai silver main contracts experiencing a daily increase of up to 5.27%.
Multi factor resonance supports the surge of silver prices
The recent surge is the result of the resonance of various factors such as industrial demand, supply and demand patterns, financial policies, and capital inflows. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. The outbreak of industrial demand has formed strong support:
The proportion of silver industry demand has risen to 65%, becoming the dominant force in prices. The photovoltaic industry is the core source of incremental growth. By 2025, the global silver consumption for photovoltaics will double compared to 2022, and the popularization of N-type batteries will further increase the silver consumption per GW. In the fourth quarter, global photovoltaic companies will increase orders for stocking up in 2026, resulting in a significant increase in silver demand from November to December; At the same time, AI computing power servers and data center orders remain strong, and their single cabinet silver consumption is much higher than that of traditional equipment. In addition, the silver consumption of new energy vehicles per vehicle far exceeds that of traditional fuel vehicles. These high growth areas have jointly driven up the demand for silver industry.
2. The contradiction between tight supply and worsening inventory shortage:
The global silver market has been in short supply for five consecutive years, and the supply gap is expected to reach 95 million ounces by 2025. On the supply side, 70-80% of silver is a byproduct of metals such as copper and lead. The expansion of main mineral resources is slow, and the fourth quarter production of mines in major producing areas such as Mexico and Peru is lower than expected. Mexico also plans to increase export tariffs to further restrict supply. In terms of inventory, LBMA silver inventory has decreased by one-third from its peak in 2022, and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has also dropped to a nearly 10-year low. Global exchange inventory is only enough to support 3-9 months of consumption, and the tight supply of available goods continues to push up prices.
3. Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts activate financial attributes:
According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch”, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is as high as 87.6%. Cutting interest rates will reduce the opportunity cost of holding interest free assets such as silver, while also suppressing the US dollar. Silver is priced in US dollars and is extremely sensitive to changes in the US dollar. A weaker US dollar will enhance the investment attractiveness of silver. In addition, the potential next chairman of the Federal Reserve holds a dovish stance, and the market expects multiple interest rate cuts in 2026, further strengthening the financial support of silver’s attributes.
4. A large influx of investment funds is driving the upward trend:

The price of silver is much lower than that of gold, attracting many investors seeking low-cost safe haven assets. Position data shows that COMEX’s non-commercial net long position in silver has reached a historic high, with the world’s largest silver ETF increasing its holdings by over 500 tons within six months; The trading volume of silver T+D in the domestic market increased by 30% in half a year, while speculative long positions increased by 12% in a single month. At the same time, the gold to silver ratio has fallen to around 72, although still higher than the long-term average, the trend of price correction has accelerated the shift of funds from gold to silver, forming a positive feedback of upward trend.
5. Macro risk aversion provides additional impetus:
At present, the debt level of major western economies is rising, the scale of US treasury bond bonds is high, coupled with the geopolitical risks such as the continuation of the Middle East conflict, the global credit and monetary system is impacted, and investors have increased the allocation of precious metals to avoid currency depreciation and economic fluctuation risks. Silver, as a safe haven and price advantage
Market forecast: Long term trend is good, short-term vigilance against pullbacks and high volatility
On December 10th, silver prices hit a historic high, with an increase of over 92% compared to the beginning of the year (1.1), nearly doubling. Silver prices may face high volatility and pullback risks in the short term, while in the medium to long term, they are likely to maintain an upward trend due to fundamental support.

According to the analysis from Business Society’s market monitoring system, on December 9, the domestic market price of silicon metal #441 was referenced at 9,620 yuan per ton. Compared to December 1 (market price of silicon metal #441 at 9,750 yuan per ton), the price decreased by 130 yuan per ton, marking a 1.33% decline.

Weak support in the market leads to a downward trend in the silicon metal market
According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic silicon metal spot market has shown a continuous decline in recent two days (December 7-9), with notable fluctuations in market conditions. Prices for various grades in multiple regions have experienced varying degrees of downward adjustments. As of December 9, the reference price for 441# silicon metal in East China was approximately 9,300-9,500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of around 100-200 yuan/ton. The market price for oxygenated 553# silicon metal was around 9,100-9,300 yuan/ton, with a price decline of approximately 200-300 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
Supply Side: Currently, the overall supply side of the metallurgical silicon market remains relatively stable. As the dry season begins, the overall operating rate in the southern regions continues to decline, while some silicon producers in the northern regions have increased production or resumed operations, leading to a slight rise in the operating rate. Presently, the operating rates in the north and south exhibit a polarized trend, with the overall operating situation being significantly influenced by adjustments made by major producers. The expected production volume in December is roughly on par with November. At the moment, some silicon producers show low enthusiasm for restarting operations after shutdowns.
Demand side: Currently, the demand for metallurgical silicon within the market is moderate, with limited transactions. The negotiated prices for metallurgical silicon remain at low levels, and downstream restocking and inventory preparation are constrained. Overall, the pressure from both supply and demand sides remains significant.
Post-market analysis
Currently, the metal silicon market remains characterized by weak supply and demand, with subdued trading activity and a generally subdued transaction focus. Analysts at Business Society estimate that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will primarily experience narrow adjustments, though further developments in supply-demand dynamics will require close attention.

Recently, the melamine market has shown a “firm” pattern where the supply side strongly supports prices, while the demand side restricts its upward potential. As of December 8th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5637.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67% compared to the beginning of this month (5600.00 yuan/ton).
Behind the ‘firm operation’ is a game of multiple factors such as supply and demand and cost:

Supply side:
The supply has indeed been shrinking recently. The centralized parking of the equipment resulted in a decrease in the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry from 62.20% at the end of November to 60.80%, leading to a reduction in market supply. At the same time, some production enterprises have sufficient pending orders and low inventory, which gives them the confidence to raise prices and push up quotes.
Demand side:
The overall performance is mediocre. The main industries such as downstream artificial boards have not seen a fundamental improvement in demand due to the impact of real estate. As prices rise, downstream resistance to high priced goods becomes apparent, leading to a decrease in new orders for production enterprises, which is the fundamental reason for the unsustainable price increase.
Cost side:
The price of raw material urea showed an upward trend in early December. As of December 8th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1717.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.62% compared to the beginning of this month (1657.50 yuan/ton). Provided rigid cost support for the price of melamine.
Short term market outlook
Overall, the short-term market direction will depend on the game between the following two aspects:
Upward possibility: If the raw material urea market continues to improve and enterprises continue to maintain low inventory and strong willingness to raise prices, there is an expectation that market prices (especially low-end prices) will continue to rise.
Downward pressure: Due to the short-term supply side factors driving the current rise, the demand side has not provided a solid foundation. Once supply is restored or downstream resistance intensifies, the driving force for prices to continue rising will significantly weaken, and the market may fall into a high-level stalemate or even a narrow correction.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on December 5th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9740 yuan/ton, which was 10 yuan/ton lower than the market price of silicon metal # 441 on December 1st (9750 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.10%.

Weak supply and demand. Recently, the metal silicon market has been stable, with a slightly weak operation
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (12.1-12.05), the domestic spot market for silicon metal has been generally stable but weak, with some regions experiencing a narrow decline in silicon metal prices, with a decrease of about 50 yuan/ton. On December 5th, the market price of metallic silicon 441 # in the East China region of China was adjusted downwards. The market price of metallic silicon 441 # in the East China region was adjusted downwards by 50 yuan/ton, with reference to around 9600-9700 yuan/ton. The market price of oxygen 553 # was adjusted downwards by 50 yuan/ton, with reference to around 9400-9500 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
On the supply side: As we enter December, the overall fundamentals of the domestic silicon metal market are weak, and the market has entered a dry season. The overall operating rate of silicon metal production areas in the southern region continues to decline, and it is expected that the operating rate of silicon companies in the southern region will remain around 0-10%. At present, many silicon companies in production are mainly supported by long-term orders. Some silicon companies are reluctant to sell their spot goods after stopping production, maintaining stable quotations and weak willingness to lower prices. However, it is difficult to transact at high prices. Currently, the supply side is weak.
On the demand side: Currently, the trading atmosphere in the silicon metal market is relatively weak, and the overall operating rate of downstream factories has slightly declined. The demand for raw materials is weak, and downstream users have a strong wait-and-see attitude. The actual performance of new orders is cautious, and the overall demand performance is poor.
Market analysis in the future
At present, there is a strong bullish sentiment in the metal silicon field, and the mentality of industry players is average. The market supply and demand are showing a weak trend, and the overall market operating expectations will continue to decline in the later stage. The improvement of fundamentals remains to be seen. The metal silicon data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate in a range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

The “partial push up” trend in the melamine market is the result of multiple factors such as short-term tightening of the supply side, slight cost increases, and sustained weak demand. The market has shown a high-level stalemate.
According to data from Shengyi Society, the domestic average price of melamine increased from 5530 yuan/ton (November 26) to 5600 yuan/ton (December 1) within one week after November 26, with a cumulative increase of about 1.11%. Entering early December, the upward trend has significantly slowed down, indicating that the driving force behind the rise is weakening.

The local increase this time is mainly driven by changes in the supply side and costs, but there are obvious constraints on the demand side.
1. Supply side: Local tightening and enterprise price hikes
The overall capacity utilization rate of the industry slightly decreased from 62.20% to 60.80% at the end of November, with a slight contraction in supply. Some production enterprises have sufficient pending orders and low inventory, which constitutes their core confidence in raising prices and continuing to push up quotes.
Cost side: Raw material urea prices rise
On December 2nd, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1702.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.71% compared to the beginning of this month (1657.50 yuan/ton). This has formed a rigid cost support for the price of melamine.
3. Demand side: Continued weakness, resistance to high prices
The main industries such as downstream artificial boards have not seen a fundamental improvement in demand due to the impact of real estate. With the rise in prices, downstream resistance to high priced goods is becoming increasingly apparent, leading to a decrease in new orders for production enterprises, which is the fundamental reason why price increases are unsustainable.
In summary, the ‘partial price increase’ this time is not driven by demand recovery, but by short-term factors on the supply side, and its sustainability is weak. The future direction of the market will depend on downstream acceptance of current prices and further changes in upstream enterprise operating rates.

This week, the short-term trend of the propylene market presents the characteristics of “cost support and demand resilience coexisting”. The rise in international oil prices provides a stable bottom support for it, forming the foundation for the strong operation of prices.

Price performance
As of December 4th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6190.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton).
Cost side:
International oil prices rise: On December 3rd, international oil prices rose month on month, providing cost and psychological support. Taking December 4th data as an example, the ex factory price of naphtha is around 7071 yuan/ton.
Supply side:
The main factor supporting the price of propylene is the temporary tight supply in certain regions, such as Shandong. However, this supply contraction is not driven by strong demand, but rather by losses in some facilities and maintenance shutdowns, and its sustainability is questionable.
Demand side:
Downstream demand is the biggest drag on the current market. Especially as we enter the traditional off-season of December, there is an expectation of further decline in terminal demand (such as plastic weaving and home appliances). Downstream factories generally adopt a “rigid procurement” strategy and have a low acceptance of high priced raw materials. From a full year perspective, the propylene market is in a capacity expansion cycle, and the fundamentals exhibit a “weak supply and demand” characteristic. Inventory is at a high level, and the largest downstream polypropylene (PP) market is also under price pressure due to oversupply and off-season demand, which severely limits the upward space of propylene from the demand side.
In summary, short-term propylene prices may fluctuate due to supply disruptions, but in the context of weak demand and long-term loose supply, it is difficult to form a trend upward trend, and it is more likely to manifest as a range oscillation with a “top and bottom” or a “slow adjustment recovery”.

This week, the core state of the acrylic acid market is “weak supply-demand balance, price stalemate”. As of December 3rd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6083.33 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

Market characteristics: Downstream users mainly digest contracts or inventory, with limited follow-up on spot goods, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and light trading.
1. Cost support
As of December 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6168.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton). The price of raw material propylene is still at a high level, and the production cost is high, which has led to weak willingness of enterprises to reduce prices and sell. Provided a solid bottom support for the price of acrylic acid, making it difficult for it to fall significantly.
2. Adequate supply
The main production equipment operates stably and the overall supply is sufficient. Adequate supply has eliminated the expectation of price increases caused by supply shortages. Forming the ‘stabilizer’ of the market also means a lack of supply side momentum to drive price increases.
3. Weak demand
The demand for major downstream areas such as coatings and adhesives has not shown significant improvement, and there is insufficient follow-up on terminal orders. This is the key to the current stalemate. Downstream users generally hold a cautious attitude and adopt a “buy as you go” strategy, lacking the motivation to concentrate on stocking or chasing price increases.
Overall, without significant positive news stimulation (such as cost side changes or demand side outbreaks), the acrylic acid market is likely to continue a weak equilibrium pattern of narrow fluctuations in the short term.

Ethylene glycol prices declined in November
In November, the price of ethylene glycol continued to decline, with the average price dropping. Recently, the price has begun to stabilize. According to data from Business Society, as of November 28, the domestic oil-based ethylene glycol average price was 4,050 yuan per ton, down 4.05% from the average price of 4,220.83 yuan per ton on November 1.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the spot contract (minimum 500 tons) for port ethylene glycol has shown a significant weakening in basis, with intra-day declines this week as spot prices started to discount futures. Today’s intra-day basis quotes for this week’s contract ranged from +8 to -5. As of the close on November 28, next week’s contract basis quotes were +5 to +6, the December contract basis quotes were +18 to +20, and the January contract basis quotes were +33 to +35.
The spot price for domestic coal-based polyethylene glycol (PET-grade, bulk, tax-inclusive, self-pickup) for whole truckloads is 3,720-3,880 yuan per ton.
In the international market for ethylene glycol, as of November 26, the negotiated spot prices for recent shipments arriving at the shore were around $460-$462 per ton.
Changes in the Ethylene Glycol Unit in December 2025:
The dynamics of the ethylene glycol production facilities in December 2025 encompass reductions in domestic operations, maintenance schedules, and the addition of new facilities. Overseas, there are planned shutdowns and delayed restarts among other factors. Specific details are as follows:
Domestic equipment
A Zhejiang Plant Reduces Load: Market rumors suggest that an ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang with an annual capacity of 800,000 tons plans to reduce its operating load starting in December. Specific load reduction measures and subsequent adjustment schedules have not been disclosed in further detail.
The impact of previous shutdowns at some facilities continues, while new facilities contribute incremental output: In November, several domestic ethylene glycol plants were shut down, resulting in a total capacity loss of 1 million tons. If these facilities remain offline in December, the supply will continue to be affected that month. Meanwhile, a new 830,000-ton-per-year ethylene glycol plant in South China, originally scheduled to commence operations in Q1 2026, began trial runs with ethylene feedstock in early November. It is expected to bring a modest additional output increment to the market in December.

Ethylene-based plants have maintenance plans: In the later phase of domestic ethylene-based EG production, maintenance schedules are in place for ethylene-based plants. However, the specific plant names, production capacity, and duration of maintenance for December have not yet been finalized. The actual implementation of these maintenance plans may impact the total supply of ethylene-based EG for that month.
Overseas installation
Iran plans to shut down multiple plants: Market reports on November 24 indicated that four Iranian ethylene glycol plants, with a combined annual production capacity of 7.25 million tons, are scheduled to cease operations between late November and early December. As of November 28, the actual implementation remains uncertain. If the shutdowns proceed smoothly in December, global ethylene glycol supply will be significantly reduced. Earlier reports also mentioned that two Iranian ethylene glycol plants, with a combined annual capacity of 3.3 million tons, had already halted operations. If they remain offline in December, their impact on supply will persist.
Singapore Plant Restart Delayed: A 900,000-ton-per-year ethylene glycol unit in Singapore, originally scheduled to resume operations around late December 2025, has now seen its restart delayed, with no specific resumption plan announced yet. The unit had been shut down around August 2025, and this delay will prevent overseas ethylene glycol supply from being supplemented by this capacity in December.

Forecast of Ethylene Glycol Market in December 2025
Based on the market performance in November and core variables of supply and demand, the ethylene glycol market is likely to experience a wide range of fluctuations in December 2025, with a price range focused on 3750-4050 yuan/ton. The long and short factors on the supply and demand side are playing against each other, while cost and inventory factors will also form key constraints on the market. The specific forecast is as follows:
Supply side: intertwining long and short, restricting significant fluctuations in supply
The bullish factor is prominent: Iran’s facility shutdown plan is the biggest variable on the supply side in December. On November 24th, it was reported that Iran has already shut down two sets of 3.3 million tons/year facilities, and another four sets of 7.25 million tons/year facilities are planned to shut down from late November to early December. If implemented, it will reduce global ethylene glycol production capacity by 8%, resulting in a daily reduction of about 20000 tons of supply and significantly tightening global supply. In addition, a 900000 ton/year plant in Singapore was originally scheduled to restart at the end of December, but the restart time has been postponed and there is no clear plan. The capacity gap since the shutdown in August has continued, and it is impossible to make up for overseas supply in December. Domestically, Shenghong Refining and Chemical’s 1 million ton unit is scheduled to shut down for maintenance in early December, and a set of 800000 ton units at Zhejiang Petrochemical is also planned to take off and operate negatively in December, further reducing some production capacity supply.
Negative factors still exist: the continuous release of new domestic production capacity brings supply pressure. The 200000 ton new plant in Ningxia and the 830000 ton new plant in BASF have been put into trial operation in November, and are expected to form actual production increases in December; Shenghong Refining and Chemical’s 900000 ton plant is also scheduled to restart at the end of November, and these new and restarted production capacities will offset the impact of some maintenance on the reduced capacity. At the same time, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in China reached over 72% in November. Although some units underwent load reduction maintenance, the overall operating level of the industry remained relatively high, providing basic support for supply in December.
Demand side: Short term support, long-term weak pressure
Strong short-term support: The downstream polyester industry currently maintains a high operating rate of over 91%, and the industry’s profitability and inventory status are healthy. The short-term operating level is expected to remain stable, providing significant support for the demand for ethylene glycol. In addition, in early November, Indian merchants purchased a large amount of FDY due to policy adjustments, resulting in a significant increase in orders for filament exports. Bottle processing fees also continued to recover, which to some extent drove the release of demand for ethylene glycol. This trend is expected to continue in early December.

Gradual weakness in the medium to long term: December has entered the traditional off-season of the textile industry, and terminal weaving orders have shown signs of a high-level decline with the weather turning cold, making it more difficult to clear raw fabric inventory. As the New Year approaches, some weaving manufacturers may experience workers returning home, leading to a concentrated decrease in operating rates, which will then be transmitted to the polyester process, resulting in a decrease in polyester load and ultimately weakening demand for ethylene glycol. This off-season effect will gradually become apparent as December progresses.
Cost and inventory: Cost bottoming supports prices, inventory accumulation suppresses price increases
Bottom support is formed on the cost side: Currently, the cash flow of the coal to ethylene glycol marginal unit has fallen below the cost line, and the marginal profit loss of coal to ethylene glycol in November reached 784 yuan. If the price continues to drop to around 3700 yuan/ton in December, it is expected to trigger strong support on the supply side, and the willingness of enterprises to reduce production due to losses will increase, thereby suppressing further price declines. In terms of oil to ethylene glycol production, the fluctuation of raw material oil prices has limited support, but it will not significantly drag down the cost of ethylene glycol, and the overall cost line will form a bottom line constraint on the December market.
Inventory side suppresses upward elasticity: Since November, the explicit inventory of ethylene glycol at ports has continued to accumulate, with poor port shipments during the week. It is expected that the slight accumulation of inventory will continue in December. The gradual increase in port inventory has led to loose market liquidity, weakening the upward rebound momentum of prices. Even if there is a sudden reduction in supply, inventory can still form a buffer, making it difficult to drive prices up significantly.
Overall, there is bottom support for ethylene glycol in December due to favorable factors such as the shutdown of facilities in Iran, but negative factors such as the release of new production capacity, inventory accumulation, and low demand season will suppress the increase. Therefore, it is predicted that the spot operation range of ethylene glycol in December will fluctuate widely within the range of 3750-4050 yuan/ton.