Author Archives: lubon

The dual benefits of supply and demand in February 2024 support a rise in tar prices

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the coal tar market in Shanxi Province was temporarily stable at the beginning of the month in February 2024, with a significant increase after the holiday. The price at the beginning of the month was 4360 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 4730 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 8.49%.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

From the monthly K-bar chart of coal tar, it can be seen that after entering 2023, the coal tar market has experienced more decline and less increase, with significant increases and decreases from January to May, and relatively small fluctuations in June and July. On a monthly basis, the market saw a broad decline of 19.37% in January, followed by a brief 13% rebound in February. In March, prices fell sharply again by 15.2%, and in April, the decline continued to expand to 36.91%. In May, the market rebounded significantly by 32%. The market performance in June and July was relatively stable, but after entering August, the market fluctuated greatly, with overall gains and losses. The market maintained a narrow range of fluctuations from September to October, with a broad decline in November.

 

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of price trend candlestick to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations.

 

On February 29th, the coal tar (high-temperature) commodity index was 163.10, an increase of 10.34 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.54% from the highest point in the cycle of 231.47 points (2022-11-09), and an increase of 245.92% from the lowest point of 47.15 points on December 6th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

 

Most coking enterprises conducted the final round of auctions before and after January 30th, and most companies signed contracts for three weeks. Therefore, the coal tar market maintained a temporary stable operation in mid to early February, until the latest round of auctions after the year began around the 20th in various regions. With tight supply and downstream replenishment demand boosting, auction prices rose. At the end of the month auction, boosted by the dual benefits of supply and demand, the price at the end of the month has significantly increased again, with an adjustment range of 100-400 yuan/ton.

 

From 2022 to present, we can see from the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China that after entering 24 years, the operating rate of coking enterprises has significantly declined. After the holiday, the fourth round of increase in prices of coking enterprises has quickly landed, and coking enterprises have generally suffered losses. There has been a significant increase in active production restriction enterprises, and the comprehensive operating rate has slid to below 70%. The supply of coal tar is tight, and the supply side is favorable. Moreover, due to the impact of losses on coking enterprises recently, it is difficult for them to increase their operating rates in the short term, and the tight supply situation in the tar market will continue for a period of time.

 

From the price table of the deep processing industry we monitored in February, it can be seen that the overall performance of the deep processing market has significantly improved since February, with prices of related commodities rising, especially the prices of major commodities such as carbon black and coal tar pitch, which have significantly increased, driving the market to heat up. Downstream enterprises also generally have a demand for replenishment after the holiday, actively entering the market for inquiries and procurement. With the boost of replenishment demand, the demand side will continue to be positive for a period of time.

Overall, the tight supply pattern in the coal tar market will continue for a period of time, with strong support from the demand side under the influence of two important commodities, carbon black and coal tar pitch. Driven by the dual benefits of supply and demand, it is expected that the coal tar market will continue to maintain a strong performance in the near future.

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Supply and demand balance, acetone may experience a narrow upward trend in March

The domestic acetone market saw a slight increase in February, which coincided with the Spring Festival holiday. The increase was mainly supported by the raw material pure benzene. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the daily price of the national acetone market was 7190 yuan/ton on February 1st, and it rose to 7330 yuan/ton on February 28th, an increase of 1.95%.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

The acetone quotations in major mainstream markets across the country in February are as follows:

 

Region/ Price on February 28th/ Monthly increase

East China region/ 7150./200

Shandong region/ 7450.50

Yanshan region/ 7450./100

South China region/ 7300./200

The market operated steadily in early February. In the first ten days, it was the preparation period before the Spring Festival, but as February approaches the end of the preparation period, the trading atmosphere in the market has slowed down, and the market is operating steadily. During this period, phenolic ketone enterprises reduced their production burden. According to statistics, in February, four sets of maintenance equipment were installed, with a total production capacity of 600000 tons, resulting in a monthly production loss of nearly 30000 tons. his

 

Supported by the cost side, it quickly surged and entered an adjustment period in the middle and late stages. Returning after the holiday, affected by the strong upward trend of raw material pure benzene before and after the holiday, the phenolic ketone factory actively raised its listing price in a state of severe losses, which boosted market sentiment. Traders reported a rapid increase in prices. After the holiday, the low inventory of terminal factories coincided with demand plans, and the trading atmosphere on the market was great. However, the good times did not last long. With the replenishment of imported goods, the factory actively increased its operating rate. With sufficient supply, After the demand side followed up, the demand decreased and the market entered a period of volatile adjustment at the end of the month.

 

From a cost perspective, the domestic pure benzene market rose first and then fell in February. On February 1st, the pure benzene market was quoted at 7967 yuan/ton, and on February 28th, it was quoted at 8567 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.53%. Prior to the holiday, international crude oil futures rose, driving the upward trend of pure benzene, which provided strong support for downstream phenolic ketone products.

 

From a downstream perspective, the overall domestic MIBK market remained stable until the end of the month, with a strong upward trend. On February 1st, the market reported 13400 yuan/ton, and on February 28th, the market reported 13800 yuan/ton; In February, downstream isopropanol increased from 8170 yuan/ton to 8420 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.06%; In February, bisphenol A showed an overall upward trend due to the upstream phenol’s upward trend.

 

From the perspective of Business Society, there is still a slight upward trend in the acetone market in March. Firstly, there are still maintenance plans for the phenol ketone units of Jiangsu Ruiheng and Jilin Petrochemical in China, with an estimated import volume of 25000 tons, which is the same as the import volume in February. Secondly, the downstream MIBK and MMA products have been affected by the increase in market demand, resulting in high operating rates. Products such as bisphenol A and isopropanol have been operating steadily, with little overall change. Other downstream products have slightly improved after the holiday, and overall, the supply and demand side is relatively stable. It is expected to slightly increase in March

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This week, the sulfur market rose first and then fell (2.19-2.25)

Price trend

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China this week first rose and then fell. On February 25th, the sulfur price was 1026.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% compared to February 19th’s sulfur price of 1030.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 10.00% from the beginning of the month.

 

This week’s sulfur market is running smoothly. After the holiday, downstream construction increased, and the market trading atmosphere was positive. Refinery shipments were smooth. At the beginning of the week, sulfur prices were raised, but the benefits were limited. The market activity atmosphere weakened, and downstream and traders became more wait-and-see. Some refineries actively discharged inventory, and sulfur prices were adjusted and lowered. In the later period, their mentality remained stable, and the market situation remained stable. As of the 23rd, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 990-1070 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 990-1020 yuan/ton.

 

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

 

The downstream sulfuric acid market is operating steadily, with an average domestic sulfuric acid price of 203.75 yuan/ton on February 25th, which is unchanged from the price of 203.75 yuan/ton on February 19th. The production of on-site enterprises is stable, and the market supply continues to be sufficient. Downstream demand gradually recovers to rationality after a slight increase after the holiday, and stocking is mainly based on demand. Sour acid enterprises can still ship, and manufacturers have a wait-and-see attitude. The sulfuric acid market operates steadily.

 

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly and steadily. On February 25th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate was 3116.67 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 3116.67 yuan/ton on February 19th. After the holiday, the market for ammonium phosphate remained stable, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand, limited follow-up on new orders, and no significant changes in manufacturer quotations. The market price for ammonium phosphate remained stable.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the sulfur market has sufficient supply, while the trading atmosphere in the terminal market is weak. The market mentality is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. Downstream support for sulfur is limited, and sulfur enterprises follow the market with small fluctuations in quotes. It is expected that the sulfur market will consolidate in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

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This Saturday, the fluoropropylene market remained weakly stable (1.17-2.20)

1、 Price trend

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to statistics from Business Society, as of February 20th, the market price of hexafluoropropylene is around 35500-36500 yuan/ton. Some large factories have lowered their prices by 200 yuan/ton.

 

2、 Price influencing factors:

 

This Saturday, the overall market price of fluoropropylene remained weak and stable. After the Spring Festival, the market recovery is relatively slow, and the raw material side maintains the pre holiday quotation, while downstream purchases remain in demand.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst believes that the recovery period of the market industry chain is slow, and the hexafluoropropylene market may maintain weak and stable operation in the short term.

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Zinc price fluctuates slightly and falls

After the holiday, zinc prices fluctuated slightly and fell

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 19th, the zinc price was 20268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the zinc price of 20546 yuan/ton on February 9th before the holiday; Compared to February 1st, the price of zinc decreased by 3.06% to 20908 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, zinc ingot inventories accumulated, and the demand for zinc remained weak, causing zinc prices to fluctuate and fall.

 

London LME zinc ingot inventory increase

 

Time/ Inventory/ Increase or decrease/ Changes

February 8th/ 216675/ 10225/4.95%

February 9th/ 227225./10550./4.87%

February 12th/ 238275./11050./4.86%

February 13th/ 246400./8125./3.41%

February 14th/ 254825./8425./3.42%

February 15th/ 259825/ 5000./1.96%

February 16th/ 264825./5000./1.92%

During the Spring Festival, the LME zinc ingot inventory in the London futures market continued to accumulate. As of February 16, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 264825 tons, an increase from the inventory of 227225 tons on February 9 before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, overseas demand was weak, and the zinc ingot inventory in the London futures market increased.

 

Weak demand remains

 

After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises slowly resumed work, but some downstream customers still have holidays and have not resumed work. In addition, customers are stocking up before the holiday, and zinc ingot inventory is high. The demand for zinc ingot replenishment after the holiday is poor, and the demand for zinc in the market remains weak.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

According to data analysts from Business Society, the high inventory of zinc ingots has accumulated, coupled with the weak demand in the zinc market after the holiday, the support for the rise in zinc prices is insufficient. In the future, there is sufficient supply of zinc in the market, and with the low season of the zinc market remaining, it is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and fall at a low level.

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Expected Upstream and Downstream Strength: Price of Polyester Filament Moves Up

After the Spring Festival, the domestic polyester filament market prices have adjusted strongly, and mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have a strong sense of price increase. Among them, POY (150D/48F) is priced at 7700-8000 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is priced at 9000-9300 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) is priced at 8450-8700 yuan/ton. The strengthening of crude oil on the cost side is supported by favorable factors, and downstream textile enterprises are gradually resuming work, with a focus on on-demand procurement.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

On February 18th, the average price increase and decrease of domestic polyester filament market Unit: yuan/ton

 

Product/ February 6th/ February 18th/ Up and down/ Year-on-year rise and fall

Polyester DTY/ 9092./9137./0.49%/ 3.56%

Polyester FDY/ 8646./8684./0.44%/ 5.44%

Polyester POY/ 7840./7898/ 0.74%/ 3.86%

 

The geopolitical crisis continues to affect supply, and crude oil continues to strengthen. As of February 16th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $78.46 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $83.47 per barrel.

 

During the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic PTA futures market remained silent, and CFR China’s trend followed the strength of crude oil. As of February 16th, CFR China rose to $778 per ton, up 2.10% before the holiday.

 

In the short term, international crude oil prices are temporarily strong, and the peak production of PX has passed. The future increase in production capacity is limited, and the supply situation remains tight. At the same time, the seasonal maintenance cycle of PX is approaching. In terms of PTA, with the expansion of the industry, there is still overcapacity. By the end of 2023, the total PTA production capacity reached 80.615 million tons, with a growth rate of 16.4%. The processing fee is showing a decreasing trend year by year, and some mainstream PTA suppliers have released maintenance plans for March and April, supporting the temporary healthy operation of processing fees. The downstream terminal textile demand will gradually recover with the resumption of work during the Spring Festival, and with the traditional peak season approaching in March, domestic and foreign trade orders will heat up.

 

Analysts from Business Society believe that under the expectation of a stronger upstream and downstream market, the price center of polyester filament may continue to shift upwards.

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On February 7th, the price of titanium concentrate temporarily stabilized

Product name: 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate

 

Latest price on February 7th: 2266.67 yuan/ton

 

Key points of analysis: On February 7th, the market price of titanium concentrate remained temporarily stable. At present, the spot market for titanium concentrate is relatively tight, and the market quotation is relatively firm. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a sluggish market, and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most of them have started to take a break. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1550-1580 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2260-2280 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton.

 

In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate remains strong and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

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On February 6th, the market situation of isopropanol remained temporarily stable

Product Name: Isopropanol

 

Latest price: 8170 yuan/ton

 

Key points of analysis: On February 6th, the market price of isopropanol remained temporarily stable, and the trading atmosphere on the market was average. The upstream acetone market is currently operating steadily, with average support from the upstream. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have basically started to take a break, and market transportation has also begun to stop operating. The overall market trading is relatively light.

 

It is expected that the isopropanol market will remain stable in the short term.

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The market price of epoxy propane is mainly stable (2.1-2.5)

The recent market trend of epoxy propane has been mainly stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 5th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9237.50 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 0.96% compared to the same period last year.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market prices have recently stopped falling and risen, providing general support for the epoxy propane market.

 

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of the month, the supply side was mainly stable, and downstream demand followed up moderately. Factory shipments were still acceptable, and inventory pressure was controllable. As terminals gradually withdrew from the market, downstream new orders were average, and the pace of purchasing epoxy propane slowed down. The market was operating weakly. On February 5th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was around 8800 yuan/ton.

 

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that currently, the price of raw material propylene is rising, and the cost support is still acceptable. Downstream follow-up is average, and it is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may wait and see, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

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Sulfur market consolidated (1.29-2.4)

Price trend

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China have slightly increased this week. On February 4th, sulfur prices were at 940.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% compared to 933.33 yuan/ton on January 29th, and a decrease of 8.44% compared to the beginning of the month.

 

This week, the sulfur market has been consolidating and running. During the week, some refineries in Shandong region reduced production, resulting in a decrease in market supply of goods. Downstream main factories were able to prepare goods before the holiday, and manufacturers shipped smoothly. Refineries raised their prices slightly based on their own shipment situation. In terms of ports, the replenishment atmosphere of terminals and traders gradually weakened, weakening support for the spot market, and sulfur market prices remained stable with little movement. As of the 4th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 930-970 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 920-1000 yuan/ton.

 

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

 

The downstream sulfuric acid market is operating weakly and steadily. On February 4th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 187.50 yuan/ton, which is% the same as the price of 187.50 yuan/ton on January 29th. On site enterprises have stable production, sufficient market supply, and insufficient downstream demand. They follow up on stocking according to demand, while acid companies have average shipments. The mentality of manufacturers is deadlocked, and the short-term sulfuric acid market is wait-and-see.

 

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is weak and declining. On February 4th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate was 3133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19% compared to the price of 3203.33 yuan/ton on January 29th. The supply of monoammonium phosphate in the market has contracted, but downstream demand has remained weak, with weak follow-up on new orders, insufficient market transactions, and significant sales pressure from manufacturers. As a result, the price of monoammonium continues to decline.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

According to sulfur analysts from Business Society, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches and the market transaction atmosphere is mild, sulfur companies are actively shipping, while downstream stocking enthusiasm is average. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

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