1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic refrigerant R134a market is temporarily stable this week. On February 10, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 23333.33 yuan / ton, and the average weekend price was 23333.33 yuan / ton. This week’s market was temporarily stable. On February 14, the R134a commodity index was 85.37, flat with yesterday, down 14.63% from the highest point of 100.00 (2019-09-02), and up 2.94% from the lowest point of 82.93 on November 12, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R134a market of refrigerant market is stable temporarily this week. This week, the trend of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end rose, supporting refrigerant R134a. However, at present, the transportation is limited. In addition, the downstream demand has not been started yet. The supply and demand of R134a are roughly balanced, and the price maintains stable operation. According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of February 14, R134a price is concentrated around 21500 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising. Recently, the factory in the field is not in good condition. Some factories have not resumed production due to the impact of the epidemic. In addition, the transportation is slow to change. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight. In addition, the inventory of enterprises not shut down during the Spring Festival is exhausted, and the purchase demand is increased. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is higher. The terminal air-conditioning enterprises delayed the start-up, the on-site inventory was acceptable, and the demand for refrigerant R134a was weak.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business association, some enterprises of refrigerant R134a have not started work at present, and the traffic is limited. It is expected that the price of refrigerant R134a will be lowered when the new capacity is put into use after the formal resumption of work.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the domestic methanol market fell again. As of February 13th, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2005 yuan / ton. Prices fell 8.34% month on month and 9.03% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: during the Spring Festival, most of the methanol enterprises are in normal production, while the traditional demand drops to the freezing point of the year. Due to public safety emergencies, most of the downstream methanol enterprises that have stopped are not back to work, and the logistics recovery is very slow. The pressure on the raw material procurement and finished product sales of the downstream methanol enterprises is prominent. After the festival, the main downstream start-ups are generally reduced by 7-40%, such as acetic acid, MTO, MTBE, etc., which makes domestic methanol The demand is even worse; although the start-up of methanol enterprises has decreased by about 10%, it is still in the pattern of supply exceeding demand, and the short-term methanol trend is still declining, but the transaction price of many places falls below the cost line, and the decline is expected to slow down.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is in a downturn. Formaldehyde and downstream enterprises are still not back to work, the upstream methanol market continues to decline, and the cost and demand are difficult to be favorable. Lonzhong information believes that the short-term formaldehyde market is difficult to improve, and will remain weak.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is stable. Downstream overall construction is still on the low side, the overall automobile transportation in the market is limited, the transaction in acetic acid market is not smooth, and the inventory quantity of some manufacturers continues to accumulate. As a whole, the market is full of negative air. Under the deviation of continuous supply exceeding demand, the acetic acid market is in a passive stalemate, with stable short-term offers and weak long-term ones.

Dimethyl ether: the transaction price of domestic dimethyl ether Market is mainly stable, and the trading atmosphere is general. The price of the main production area is 3100-3150 yuan / ton, which is stable; the price of Southwest China is reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 3300-3450 yuan / ton due to poor delivery. According to Longzhong information, at present, it is difficult to recover the traffic, to support the transaction price, and the price is still weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, it is difficult to purchase raw materials and sell costs for methanol plants, and the production load of some methanol production enterprises is reduced; in Iran, the methanol plant shut down due to gas restriction at the early stage is still not recovered, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to decline in February. On the negative side, since the Spring Festival, domestic methanol downstream products have shown different performances, and the overall demand has shown a downward trend. Except for the smooth commencement of acetic acid, DMF and other downstream products, the rest have decreased to varying degrees; the commencement of methanol to olefin enterprises has slightly decreased, and the unit load of Jiutai, Zhongtian hechuang and ningxiabaofeng in Inner Mongolia has decreased by 20-30%; the other two sets of MTO units in the port have maintenance plans in late February. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that in the short term, China’s methanol market might be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulphate in China was 566 yuan / ton on February 3, and 563 yuan / ton on February 13, with a price drop of 0.59%. On February 13, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 47.14, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.65% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.62% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: after the Spring Festival, the market of ammonium sulfate is light. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-630 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-700 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-650 yuan, that in North China is 420-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: due to the impact of the epidemic, some enterprises in some regions have not yet started work, and the return time is to be determined. Most enterprises have inventory. Raw material market rose steadily. The raw material cost of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises increased, but the logistics transportation was blocked. The stock pressure of ammonium sulfate enterprises increased.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are five kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top three commodities are isopropanol (1.47%), 1,4-butanediol (0.82%) and butanone (0.76%). There are 25 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 7.94%), PX (- 6.67%) and glycol (- 6.47%). This week’s gains and losses were – 0.64%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association believe that the current market of ammonium sulphate is not good due to logistics and transportation problems. The price of coking grade ammonium sulfate decreased slightly, and its internal grade ammonium sulfate operated stably. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the later period, and it is suggested to pay attention to the change of demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business association, the price of chlorinated paraffin is stable after the Spring Festival, and the average ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin on February 13 is 4933. Up to now, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on February 13 is 73.45, which is the same as yesterday, 32.88% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 15.04% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, most chlorinated paraffin enterprises have not started work due to the impact of the epidemic. The ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5400 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4600-5400 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5200 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market price of raw material liquid wax remained stable, with few transactions, the market atmosphere was weak and cold, and the market was not volatile. Affected by the epidemic situation, the raw material liquid chlorine market was blocked from construction, the price remained stable for the time being, and the surrounding supply was temporary.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are five kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top three commodities are isopropanol (1.47%), 1,4-butanediol (0.82%) and butanone (0.76%). There are 25 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 7.94%), PX (- 6.67%) and glycol (- 6.47%). This week’s gains and losses were – 0.64%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association, due to the impact of the epidemic, many enterprises have shut down their installations, and the demand side has not improved, with manufacturers mainly stabilizing prices. It is expected that in the later stage, the chlorinated paraffin market will continue to be weak, with light operation as the main trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of logistics and demand.

1、 Price trend

Recent domestic butadiene market continued to decline. As of February 11, the price of butadiene was 7456 yuan / ton, down 8.08% on a month on month basis and 25.85% on a year-on-year basis, according to the monitoring of business agency.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic butadiene spot market continues to decline, the inventory of northern manufacturers is high, the price is under pressure, the market situation follows the decline, and the price reference in Shandong Province is about 7200 yuan / ton. The downstream and logistics in East China are still mostly closed. The market information guidance is limited. The sporadic prices refer to about 7700-7800 yuan / ton, and the actual price is negotiated.

In terms of market, the market focus of butadiene in Shandong continues to decline, the supplier’s inventory is high, the supply price pressure is down, the downstream latex industry’s resumption and inquiry follow-up are not good, the market supply-demand contradiction continues, the middleman sent the offer down to 7000-7100 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation. The butadiene market in East China is expected to be short, the downstream latex industry is limited to return to work, the rubber manufacturers in the region are abundant in inventory, and the contradiction between the supply and demand of butadiene is obvious. In addition, the merchants still hold a bearish expectation on the prices of mainstream suppliers, and the prices are sporadically sent to the offer to go down to about 7500 yuan / ton, with the actual negotiation.

In terms of industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: the offer of domestic mainstream styrene butadiene market has not changed much. The main price of Qilu 1502e in North China is around 10700 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu 1502e in East China is around 11100 yuan / ton.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the domestic market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continues to fall, and the trading atmosphere follows up generally. In terms of price, the main market price of Shunding in North China is 10200-10400 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Macro news affected the delay of downstream resumption and limited logistics and transportation, which led to the pressure on domestic butadiene suppliers’ inventory. In addition, Dalian Hengli’s new butadiene plant has already produced superior products, and merchants are mainly short of supply and demand fundamentals in the later market, so short-term demand is difficult to improve significantly, and the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue to decline. Butadiene analysts of the business community predicted that the short-term domestic demand is not short-term Butadiene market continued to decline, it is recommended to pay attention to the latest prices of manufacturers and the guidance of downstream resumption.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market is in weak operation. As of February 11, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2147 yuan / ton. Prices fell 2.72% month on month and 2.39% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, there are not many methanol enterprises in various regions in China, which mainly consume inventory. After the festival, most of the downstream factories have not resumed production, and the demand is bleak. The downstream market as a whole started at a low level, and the transportation was limited, and the trade mentality was mostly bearish.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market has not yet started. As the downstream market is still in a state of shutdown, no enterprises have resumed production in the formaldehyde market. At the same time, the upstream methanol market is significantly lower than that before the festival, and the overall supply and demand side is affected by the air gap. In addition, due to the limited transportation, the short-term formaldehyde market is difficult to resume operation, and the trading atmosphere is too weak to change.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is light, the trans provincial transportation is still limited, the shipment of each manufacturer is not smooth, the supplier’s offer is temporarily stable, and the market starts to maintain a low level. The restart time of some downstream acetate plants was delayed again, aggravating the market negative situation. Some long-term contracts and ships maintain the normal operation of main manufacturers’ supply, but the market fundamentals are still oversupplied, waiting for the recovery time of automobile transportation and the downstream start-up time to support.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic market price of dimethyl ether is low as a whole, and the price of some enterprises is still showing signs of downward trend. At present, the main production area of Henan two methyl ether turnover mainstream reference 3100-3150 yuan / ton, terminal gas station demand than last week has signs of improvement, but the traffic aspect continues to give no force, the two methyl ether enterprises shipments are still more difficult.

3、 Future forecast

View of business community: the price of methanol enterprises is not high, but the delivery situation is limited. Drivers are worried and there are still not many transport vehicles. Some downstream enterprises, such as refineries, began to bid to receive goods, but the transportation cycle grew. There are different attitudes among the business people. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that in the short term, China’s methanol market might be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 11, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 13150 yuan / ton, up 1.15% month on month and 1.94% year on year. The overall market is waiting to be sorted out.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the MDI market continues to maintain a quiet atmosphere, weak finishing wait-and-see. Under the pressure of inventory, the supplier’s manufacturers all reduced their production and reduced their load. The Ryan unit was seriously affected by the local epidemic, and it was learned that it was difficult to return to work in the near future within one month. Most of the downstream enterprises have not returned to work, so it is hard to be optimistic about the market demand. The trade links are all online but also “on paper”. The logistics is limited in all aspects, and the number of inquiry customers is very small.

In terms of market, the MDI market of South China polymerization is weak and stable. Traders mainly work online, with few inquiries downstream. The commencement time of downstream terminal is postponed, and the atmosphere is quiet. In North China, aggregate MDI is quiet and stable. The supplier is under great pressure, reducing the load or stopping, and the traders start work in cloud and isolate themselves at home. There are occasional enquiries in the downstream, and there is no intention to buy for a short time. The aggregate MDI market in East China is stable. The epidemic situation in East China is serious, and the downstream construction time continues to be delayed. Most of the traders return to work in the cloud, and they will not offer or continue to offer before the festival.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the focus of pure benzene has declined, and the atmosphere is stalemate. At present, automobile transportation and logistics are still limited, and refineries and downstream are facing shipment pressure. In the follow-up, there were many domestic trade ships arriving at the port in East China, but the downstream was affected by the failure of the terminal to resume work, and the intention of spot purchase was weak.

Aniline: aniline factory and downstream enterprises shut down or reduce more negative, market supply and demand are weak, factory delivery is general, market stability is the main, North China mainstream negotiation price reference is 6540 yuan / ton acceptance, East China market mainstream reference is 6750 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: Business Club aggregate MDI analysts expect that aggregate MDI market is mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been running steadily this week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton; in Shandong is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton; in Hebei is about 2750-2800 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi is about 2050 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu is about 2650-2750 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton; in South China The quotation for delivery is about 2750-2800 yuan / ton.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: affected by the epidemic of pneumonia, domestic logistics and transportation are limited, acetic acid production enterprises are not able to deliver goods smoothly, inventory accumulation is high, and some enterprises gradually reduce the load. Due to the delay of commencement and load reduction in some downstream markets, the overall trade and investment in the industry is light, and the overall market is stable.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market has increased the stock pressure, the enterprise’s shipment is not smooth, and the market turnover is flat, at present, about 2110 yuan / ton; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries are basically in the semi closed state, the industry starts insufficiently, the demand is light, some regions are expected to resume work next week, but the transportation is still difficult; PTA spot market has a large stock pressure, and the terminal starts are delayed , limited transportation.

International: this week, the international acetic acid market is mainly stable, in which the price of acetic acid in North America is about 750 US dollars / ton; the price of acetic acid in Asia is about 325-375 US dollars / ton; the current price of acetic acid in Europe is about 620 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, under the influence of pneumonia, the overall performance of domestic acetic acid industry chain is relatively light. First, Limited Logistics and transportation lead to weak and soft trade and investment, second, the downstream market starts late, demand is poor, and the superposition of negative factors leads to weak and stable operation of acetic acid market. It is expected that the acetic acid market is still weak in a short period of time, and transportation constraints are the main problems.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market fell sharply this week, down 7.21% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: during last week’s long holiday in China, overseas markets were worried about the impact of the global new coronavirus epidemic on oil demand, which led to a sharp drop in the price of international crude oil market. Affected by this, the price of toluene in domestic market fell sharply this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5230 yuan / ton..

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, worried about the impact of the global new crown virus epidemic on oil demand, the international oil price this week showed an overall trend of shock and anti decline. As of Friday, Brent fell 4.76% at sight, Brent futures fell 4.80%, WTI futures fell 1.04% and Dubai futures fell 5.59%.

On the downstream side, in terms of TDI, at present, the external market is about US $644 / T fobara, and domestic enterprises have not yet returned to work and have not yet made a quotation. It is expected that the future TDI market will follow the lead to make up the decline. In the PX market, the domestic market price this week followed the make-up drop, which is about 6300 yuan / ton at present. The latest price of the external market is about 718 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 738 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6300 yuan / ton next week.

 
3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: continue to focus on the trend of crude oil next week. On the whole, as the resumption of work is approaching, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a small shock rebound trend next week.

1、 Price trend

The domestic isomeric xylene market fell sharply this week, down 6.93% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: during last week’s long holiday in China, the overseas market was worried about the impact of the global new crown virus epidemic on oil demand, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of international crude oil market. Affected by this, the price of isomeric xylene in the domestic market fell sharply this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5300 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, worried about the impact of the global new crown virus epidemic on oil demand, the international oil price this week showed an overall trend of shock and anti decline. As of Friday, Brent fell 4.76% at sight, Brent futures fell 4.80%, WTI futures fell 1.04% and Dubai futures fell 5.59%.

In terms of downstream, PX market and PX market, the price of domestic market this week followed the make-up drop, which is about 6300 yuan / ton at present, and the latest price of external market is about 718 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 738 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of PX market will maintain 6300 yuan / ton next week. In terms of PTA market, the price of external market is about 575 US dollars / ton, while the price of domestic PTA spot market follows the price to make up the decline. At present, it is about 4400 yuan / ton, and it is expected that PTA market will remain weak in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene was flat, at 5800 yuan / ton, and the price of o-benzene was about US $880 / ton. It is expected that the trend of o-benzene in the future will be stable.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: next week, we will continue to focus on the trend of crude oil. On the whole, as the resumption of work is approaching, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a small shock rebound trend next Tuesday.