In early May 2026, the spot price of natural rubber entered a period of high volatility after several months of continuous increase. Through comprehensive analysis of the spot prices, moving average trends, basis differences, and historical cycle data of Shengyi Society, the current natural rubber market shows the characteristics of “high prices, weakened upward momentum, and intensified fundamental game”, and the turning point signal of the market has begun to emerge.
1、 Price trend: High level stabilization, marginal slowdown in upward trend
The price of natural rubber has started a clear upward trend since the beginning of 2026. As of May 8, 2026, the spot price of natural rubber is 17841.67 yuan/ton, with a significant increase during the year and in the absolute high range of the past year (the one-year position is displayed as “high”, with a maximum value of 17858.33 yuan/ton during the year, and the current price is only one step away from the historical high).
From the perspective of the moving average system, the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day moving averages still maintain a clear bullish alignment, indicating that the medium to long-term upward trend has not been completely disrupted. But the key signal appears in the change of the moving average:
On May 8th, the average difference between the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average was 249.16 yuan/ton, which changed from positive expansion to contraction. This means that the short-term upward momentum has weakened and the speed of price increase has begun to slow down.
From May 4th to May 5th, there was a repeated trend of “narrowing and re expanding” in the moving average, indicating that the long short game is intensifying and the consistency of the upward trend is being broken.
The price of natural rubber has been rising for four consecutive months since January 2026, with an increase of 6.08% in January, 3.94% in February, and 5.08% in April. After the continuous rise, the market has accumulated a large number of long profit taking positions, and the pressure of correction is gradually emerging.
2、 Basis analysis: reversal of the current pattern and divergence of market sentiment
Basis (spot price – main futures price) is a core indicator for judging the relationship between the futures and spot markets. The recent changes in the natural rubber basis reflect an important turning point in market sentiment
In late April, the natural rubber basis was in a negative range for a long time. On April 30th, the basis was as low as -181.67 yuan/ton, which was in the low range of nearly a year. This indicates that the futures price was significantly higher than the spot price at that time, and the market had optimistic expectations for the future market. The futures market had a driving force on the spot price.
After entering May, the basis quickly recovered. On May 8th, the basis was 11.67 yuan/ton, which changed from a premium to a slight premium and was in the high range of nearly a year. The rapid repair of the basis not only reflects the high trading support in the futures market, but also means that the upward momentum in the futures market has weakened, and the optimistic sentiment in the futures market has diverged.
The high operation of the basis also means that the space for further significant increases in short-term futures prices has been compressed, and the market has shifted from a pattern of “futures driving spot prices up” to a stage where spot prices stabilize at high levels and futures fluctuations follow.
3、 Historical cycle and annual comparison: High level at the highest level in the same period of the past decade
From the annual price comparison data, it can be seen that there is a significant difference in the price trend of natural rubber in 2026 compared to previous years
In early May 2026, the price of natural rubber has reached 17841.67 yuan/ton, significantly higher than the price level of the same period from 2017 to 2025 (14408.33 yuan/ton in 2025, 13630.00 yuan/ton in 2024, and 11660.00 yuan/ton in 2023), reaching the highest level in the same period of the past decade.
From the perspective of seasonal patterns, natural rubber usually enters the peak cutting season in the second quarter, and supply pressure should gradually increase, leading to seasonal price corrections. But the market in 2026 clearly breaks the traditional seasonal pattern, indicating that the current price support comes more from special variables on the macro, demand or supply side, rather than traditional supply-demand balance. Historical data shows that natural rubber prices often enter a high volatility phase after breaking through previous highs, rather than a sustained unilateral rise. The current high price range means that the resistance to further upward movement has significantly increased, and the volatility risk has been amplified accordingly.
4、 Core contradiction: a two-way game of support and pressure
（1） The supporting factors are still present, and it is difficult for the high level to quickly fall back
Supply side disturbances still exist: Uncertainty factors such as weather and policies in major global producing countries remain important supports for natural rubber prices. The progress of cutting in the main production areas of Southeast Asia, the efficiency of adhesive production, and changes in export policies may all cause disturbances to short-term supply, supporting spot prices.
Downstream demand still has resilience: the operating rate of downstream industries such as tires remains at a high level, providing some support for the essential demand for natural rubber. There has been no significant contraction in spot market transactions, and prices are unlikely to experience a cliff like decline.
Strong support from medium to long-term moving averages: The 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day moving averages are still in a clear upward trend, providing strong support for prices, while the short-term trend has not completely reversed.
（2） The pressure factors are gradually accumulating, and the upward space is limited
Marginal attenuation of upward momentum: The moving average has shifted from widening to narrowing, the rate of price increase has slowed down, the driving force of bullish funds has weakened, and the market lacks new upward catalysts. Seasonal supply pressure approaching: With the main production areas in Southeast Asia entering a period of comprehensive cutting, natural rubber supply will gradually increase, and marginal changes in supply and demand patterns may suppress prices.
High level profit taking pressure: The price of natural rubber has been rising for multiple months, and the market has accumulated a large number of long profit taking positions. Once a negative signal appears, it may trigger concentrated profit taking and exacerbate price fluctuations.
The high-level repair of the basis has been completed: the basis has changed from a discount to a premium, and the driving effect of the futures market on spot prices has disappeared. The optimistic sentiment in the futures and spot markets has diverged, and there is insufficient motivation for further upward movement.
5、 Market outlook
The current natural rubber market has entered a high-level game stage, and the short-term price is likely to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern, with limited upward space and gradually increasing downside risks. The narrowing of the moving average, the high level of the basis, and the approaching seasonal supply pressure all indicate that a turning point in the market may be forming. If the price cannot break through the suppression of the previous high point of 17858.33 yuan/ton, it is likely to enter a period of oscillation and decline. The support below can be focused on the 20 day moving average near 17000 yuan/ton.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |