Since May, the domestic butadiene rubber market has shown a trend of rising and falling. As of May 12th, the mainstream price of BR9000 in East China has fallen to 15650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.40% from 16200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; Compared to the monthly high of 16330 yuan/ton, it has decreased by 4.16%.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
During the small and long holiday in early May, market trading stagnated, and the price of butadiene rubber remained stable temporarily; After the holiday, with the release of supply side production capacity, prices gradually came under pressure and weakened, lacking sustained upward momentum, showing an overall downward trend of oscillation. Market transactions are mainly based on essential purchases.
The increase in supply side volume is one of the core factors leading to the weakening of the market. With the gradual recovery of profits from the production of butadiene rubber in the early stage, some of the previously shut down and load reducing devices have been restarted, resulting in a significant increase in the industry’s capacity utilization rate. As of May 7th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of the domestic Gaoshun Shunding rubber industry reached 54.87%, a significant increase from the end of April.
The cost side continues to decline, and the support for butadiene rubber continues to weaken. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 12th, the price of butadiene was 12400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.06% from 13200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The weak demand side has significantly dragged down the market. Since May, domestic tire companies have experienced a decline in operating rates due to production shutdowns during the May Day holiday, reduced export orders, and accumulated finished product inventory. As of May 8th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 4.8%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong has reached around 4.9%, but downstream factories have weak purchasing intentions and are holding onto rigid demand for replenishment. This has resulted in insufficient support for the demand for butadiene rubber, further exacerbating the oversupply situation in the market.
From a technical perspective, prices have continued to operate below short-term moving averages such as the 10th and 20th, forming a bearish pattern with significant short-term suppression. Only the 10 day oversold signal provides weak technical rebound support for the market.
Market forecast:
From a fundamental perspective, the short-term market for butadiene rubber is expected to remain volatile and weak. The supply side equipment continues to resume production, and the pressure of accumulated inventory is gradually increasing; The recovery of tire operating rate on the demand side is slow, and the support for essential needs is limited; The price of butadiene on the cost side is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations.
From a technical perspective, from early April to early May 2026, the average spread of butadiene rubber rapidly fell from a high of+950 yuan/ton, and after falling below the zero axis, it reached a low of -500 yuan/ton. It then fluctuated and rebounded around -300 yuan/ton, indicating the end of the previous strong upward trend and entering a downward channel. The current downward trend has slowed down significantly, but the short-term average has not yet reached the long-term average, and the downward trend has not reversed.
Comprehensive prediction: There is a high probability of short-term low-level oscillation, stabilization and stabilization; Whether it can rebound depends on: 1) the average difference turning positive; 2) Butadiene strengthens or tire production increases significantly.
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