1、 On May 13th, the price of polyester bottle flakes decreased slightly and fluctuated weakly, with mainstream prices ranging from 8850-9000 yuan/ton; Weakening costs, sluggish peak season, loose supply, bearish sentiment, light transactions, and mainly small orders for essential needs.
Mainstream transaction price: 8850-9000 yuan/ton, big factories quote 8900-9100, small factories/cash payment 8700-8850.
Futures (PR main link): 8354 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan (-0.98%) within the day, weakly oscillating.
• intraday characteristics: Factories have generally lowered prices by 50-150 yuan/ton, with a clear and stable decline; The transaction is average, with a large price difference, mainly consisting of small orders for basic needs, with an average production and sales of about 59%.
2、 Core driver
1. Cost side: PTA weakens, support loosens
PTA spot price is 6630 yuan/ton, down more than 3% from the beginning of the month, crude oil has fallen → PX is weak → PTA continues to decline, and the cost center of bottle chips has shifted downward.
MEG oscillates at a low level (about 4875 yuan/ton), with limited drag.
2. Demand side: The peak season is relatively mild, so purchase according to demand
Beverage/sheet production starts at 80% -90%, but does not stock up, can be purchased as needed, and is resistant to high prices.
Export orders are average, procurement from Southeast Asia such as Indonesia has slowed down, and external demand support is insufficient.
3. Supply and inventory: high operating capacity, moderate inventory
The production rate of bottle slices is over 80%, and the supply is sufficient.
Industry inventory lasts 8-10 days, slightly higher but not overstocked, and the pressure of price reduction and destocking is controllable.
4. Mentality: Weakening expectations, giving up on profits to sell goods
The continuous sharp decline in filament prices has dragged down the overall sentiment of polyester, causing a loosening of confidence in bottle chips. Large factories have taken the lead in lowering prices to grab orders, while small and medium-sized factories have passively followed suit.
Future forecast
Short term (1-2 weeks): weak oscillation, slight dip
Price range: 8700-8900 yuan/ton, with futures running weakly at 8200-8500 yuan/ton.
Core judgment: Weakened costs dominate, sluggish peak season drags down, loose supply suppresses, spot prices show stability but decline, transactions are mainly for small orders in essential demand, large factories are more willing to offer discounts and sell goods, and the price center continues to shift downward.
• Key support: 8700 yuan/ton (current small factory bottom line); Pressure: 9000 yuan/ton (resistance to quotes from major manufacturers).
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