High inventory, continuous decline in butadiene market price

1、 Price trend


Recent domestic butadiene market continued to decline. As of February 11, the price of butadiene was 7456 yuan / ton, down 8.08% on a month on month basis and 25.85% on a year-on-year basis, according to the monitoring of business agency.


2、 Analysis of influencing factors


ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

Products: the domestic butadiene spot market continues to decline, the inventory of northern manufacturers is high, the price is under pressure, the market situation follows the decline, and the price reference in Shandong Province is about 7200 yuan / ton. The downstream and logistics in East China are still mostly closed. The market information guidance is limited. The sporadic prices refer to about 7700-7800 yuan / ton, and the actual price is negotiated.


In terms of market, the market focus of butadiene in Shandong continues to decline, the supplier’s inventory is high, the supply price pressure is down, the downstream latex industry’s resumption and inquiry follow-up are not good, the market supply-demand contradiction continues, the middleman sent the offer down to 7000-7100 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation. The butadiene market in East China is expected to be short, the downstream latex industry is limited to return to work, the rubber manufacturers in the region are abundant in inventory, and the contradiction between the supply and demand of butadiene is obvious. In addition, the merchants still hold a bearish expectation on the prices of mainstream suppliers, and the prices are sporadically sent to the offer to go down to about 7500 yuan / ton, with the actual negotiation.


In terms of industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: the offer of domestic mainstream styrene butadiene market has not changed much. The main price of Qilu 1502e in North China is around 10700 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu 1502e in East China is around 11100 yuan / ton.


Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the domestic market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continues to fall, and the trading atmosphere follows up generally. In terms of price, the main market price of Shunding in North China is 10200-10400 yuan / ton.


3、 Future forecast


Macro news affected the delay of downstream resumption and limited logistics and transportation, which led to the pressure on domestic butadiene suppliers’ inventory. In addition, Dalian Hengli’s new butadiene plant has already produced superior products, and merchants are mainly short of supply and demand fundamentals in the later market, so short-term demand is difficult to improve significantly, and the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue to decline. Butadiene analysts of the business community predicted that the short-term domestic demand is not short-term Butadiene market continued to decline, it is recommended to pay attention to the latest prices of manufacturers and the guidance of downstream resumption.

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