I. price trend

Yellow phosphorus prices fell in October, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 19166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 19000 yuan / ton. Within the month, the price fell by 0.87%.

On October 29, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 120.25, the same as yesterday, down 25.49% from 161.39 (2019-07-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 33.64% from 89.98, the lowest point on September 5, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: in October, after the yellow phosphorus price rose a little at the beginning of the month, there was a downward trend in the middle of the month. Later, affected by the three phosphorus inspection, the price stopped falling and remained stable. As of the end of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus has not changed much as a whole. The price has declined slightly, but the price is still high. According to the inspection by the central environmental protection group of Yunnan Province, the enterprises in Yunnan Province started to decline, and the market supply was tight. Some enterprises mainly supply early orders, and the quotation for foreign reports was suspended. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 19000 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-19000 yuan / ton. The overall market is short of spot goods, traders are mainly wait-and-see, taking goods more cautiously, market demand is relatively light, and yellow phosphorus quotation is mainly stable.

Industrial chain: the upstream phosphorus ore market continues to be weak this month, and the operation is stable temporarily. As of October 25, the phosphorus ore market in Sichuan Province is generally in good condition. The price of 26% high grade magnesium (magnesium oxide 6) phosphate ore in Mabian, Sichuan Province is around 230 yuan / ton. The market of phosphorus ore in Guizhou Province is in stable operation. The price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou Province is 360-400 yuan / ton. The market of phosphorus ore in Hubei Province is in weak operation. At present, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore is around 390-400 yuan / ton. The trading of downstream phosphoric acid and phosphate enterprises is weak, and the enterprises are cautious to watch the market. In the short term, the market price of phosphoric acid is mainly based on the price structure.

On October 29, the commodity price index of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid was 101.95, flat with that of yesterday, 30.84% lower than 147.42 (2019-07-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 30.97% higher than 77.84, the lowest point on August 15, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-01-01 till now)

III. future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business cooperation, yellow phosphorus enterprises are limited in driving this month, and the overall market of yellow phosphorus is tight in spot. However, the downstream demand is also insufficient. Most traders are mainly wait-and-see, and they are more cautious in taking goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the high price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated.

I. overall trend

From October 19 to 29, the polyethylene market showed a downward trend. As of the 29th day, the average price of LLDPE 7042 monitored by the business association in East China was about 7516.67 yuan / ton, with a 10 day drop of 0.44%; the average price of LDPE 2426h was about 8400 yuan / ton, with a 10 day drop of 1.32%; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 8316.67 yuan / ton, with a 10 day drop of 1.19%. The price of PE market in East China fell first and then stabilized.

II. Market analysis

This is the peak consumption season of the “golden nine silver ten”. The demand for agricultural film in the lower reaches has improved, but the polyethylene market has fallen again and again. Now the “silver ten” is coming to an end, and the market trend is still in a weak position. In recent 10 days, PE trend has been stable after falling. On October 17, the linear futures plummeted, which has a significant impact on the mentality of the industry. The downstream attitude is wait-and-see. Replenishment is just needed, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light. Petrochemical enterprises have slightly reduced the factory price, weakened market cost support, and affected by environmental protection, the production of terminal enterprises has been hindered. Linear futures continue to decline, continue to suppress the market mentality, the peak season is coming to an end, the demand gradually turns weak. However, at present, the petrochemical inventory has fallen down, some plants have stopped for maintenance, and the market supply has decreased, which to some extent eased the supply pressure and supported the market. PE market is well intertwined and prices are weak.

Demand: the start-up of greenhouse film market has declined. Affected by environmental protection, the start-up rate in Shandong and Hebei has declined. Orders in the northwest and southwest increased by a small margin, and construction began to increase significantly. There are few orders from plastic film enterprises, most of which are in suspension.

Import and export: about 1.3402 million tons of PE import in September 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 40200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 663400 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 276600 tons, and the total export volume of PE in September 2019 is 17200 tons.

III. future forecast

Looking forward to the future market, business analysts believe that with the end of the peak season, the market demand is gradually reduced. Although the current petrochemical inventory has fallen, the international crude oil has fallen, the futures market is green, which has a significant impact on the mentality of the operators. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection, some enterprises are hindered in production. It is expected that the market will still fall in the future.

I. price trend

The TDI commodity index on October 28 was 68.61, down 0.7 points from yesterday, 72.34% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and 14.03% higher than 60.17, the lowest point on February 22, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: according to the statistics of the business agency, the price trend of TDI in the East China market is down. On the 28th, the price of TDI in the East China market was 12966.67 yuan / ton, down 1.02%. The weak TDI market in the East China region was sorted out, the atmosphere in the market remained light, the mentality of the operators was different, some of them reported stable and watched, and some of them negotiated low-end shipments. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 12600-12800 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 12800-13000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: upstream toluene, the previous trading day, Sinopec’s listed price of toluene today is the same. The listing price of Shandong refining enterprises was lowered today, about 5550 yuan / ton. The quotation of traders in East China was stable, about 5850-5870 yuan / ton. In the aspect of nitric acid, the price trend in East China is declining, the weak quotation of manufacturers tends to stabilize, and the price of some manufacturers is slightly reduced. Nitric acid market performance is not good, market demand is still weak, and it is expected to be dominated by narrow range shocks in the later period.

Industry: the domestic TDI market is dominated by weak consolidation, the atmosphere in the market is depressed, the volume of transactions is insufficient, the pressure on the industry is becoming heavier, the mentality is different, the negotiation is partial to low-end shipment, and some low-cost goods are heard.

III. price forecast

TDI analysts of the business agency believe that in the later period, the domestic TDI market mainly focused on narrow range consolidation, and focused on the guidance of the factory’s information surface.

Magnesium market trend

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (October 28, 2019): 14583.33 yuan / ton

3. Key points of analysis: since the end of August and the beginning of September, the price of magnesium ingot has stepped down, and now the price of magnesium ingot has begun to stabilize. On the one hand, based on the rising willingness of mainstream manufacturers to hold up the price, affected by the heating season, the operating cost of magnesium enterprises has increased, and the profit of early price decline has been seriously compressed, and there is a great resistance to continue to reduce; on the other hand, the supply of low-cost goods in the market has decreased. In addition to the low-cost shipment of some small factories to relieve the short-term capital pressure, mainstream manufacturers have strong expectations on the recovery of downstream demand at the end of the month, and the quotation is firm.

4. Future market forecast: near the end of the month, the domestic spot market just needs to purchase or will increase. Although the overall market is weak, it is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will keep stable operation in the near future, and pay attention to the actual transaction situation in the market in the later stage.

Moscow, Oct. 23: according to the MRC scanplast report, the production of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) in Russia fell by 5% year on year from January to September, with three-quarters of the producers reducing their production.

In the first 9 months of 2019, the total output of HDPE was 695 thousand and 200 tons, compared with 731 thousand and 700 tons in the same period last year.

Tatar Stan’s output has increased slightly, but it can not offset the decrease in the output of the other three producers.

Russia’s production of HDPE dropped from 84 thousand and 300 tons a month ago to 45 thousand and 900 tons in September, due to the maintenance of Stavrolen and Kazanorgsintez production sites.

Kazanorgsintez’s production of HDPE dropped from 50 thousand and 800 tons a month ago to 32 thousand and 200 tons in September. The Kazan manufacturer stopped production from September 26th to October 20th to make profits. The total output of HDPE was 401 thousand and 500 tons in 1-9, an increase of 1% over the same period last year.

Stavrolen’s output last month was 3400 tons, compared with 28 thousand and 200 tons in August. Budyonovsk manufacturers discontinued production from September 6th to October 18th. During the period, the total output of the plant was 214 thousand and 200 tons, down 4% from the same period last year.

Gazprom neftekhim Salavat increased its capacity utilization in September, and total factory output increased from 5400 tons last month to 10200 tons.

The low production in the last month of summer is caused by the delay in maintenance work. In the first 9 months of 2019, the total production of HDPE in the Bashkir plant was 77 thousand tons, down 14% from the same period last year.

Nizhnekamskneftekhim produces linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) during this period.

Aluminum market trend

1. Trade name: standard aluminum ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (October 25, 2019): 14010 yuan / ton

3. Analysis points:

After the sharp reduction of the aluminum price in the early stage, the current price is in the first line of 14000 shock operation. In October, the aluminum price is relatively strong, the aluminum ingot cost support is strong, the superimposed social inventory is significantly lower than that in the early stage, and the overall fundamentals are good. At present, the aluminum ingot price basically reflects the early increase, and it is expected to maintain shock operation in the near term, and pay attention to the actual transaction situation in the market in the later stage.

Attachment:

According to data released by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI) on Monday, global aluminum production fell to 5.163 million tons in September, compared with 5.329 million tons in August. Global (excluding China) aluminum production in September was 2.135 million tons, a decrease of 70000 tons compared with August and 6000 tons compared with the same period last year. According to the IAI report, China’s primary aluminum production fell to 2.878 million tons in September, compared with 2.974 million tons in August.

According to customs data, in September 2019, China exported 100300 tons of aluminum foil products, up 2.27% month on month, down 15.08% year on year.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the recent n-propanol market is dominated by stable operation. As of October 25, the factory quotation of the manufacturers in Nanjing is around 9300-9500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of the domestic n-propanol traders is around 10100-11500 yuan / ton (the price difference between different packaging specifications is large).

II. Market analysis

Products: in the near future, the overall trend of the n-propanol market is still stable, with a small number of traders raising their prices. At present, the ex factory price of n-propanol produced by Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., a manufacturer in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, is 9500 yuan / ton (bulk water), which is not far from the post Festival price, with a slight increase of 200 yuan / ton. The production area of n-propanol sold by Ningbo Haorui supply chain Co., Ltd., Zibo, Shandong Province, is external. The quotation is still stable, and the ex warehouse quotation is 10500 yuan / ton (including tax barrels); the foreign quotation of Taiwan’s imported n-propanol for Yexing chemical trade in Zhangjiagang is increased compared with that after the national day, and the current foreign quotation is 10600 yuan / ton (including tax barrels), up 500 yuan / ton. All dealers of imported or domestic n-propanol offer different prices, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

Industry chain: the market price of propylene oxide has dropped recently. At present, the market supply is sufficient, manufacturers are active in shipping mentality, and downstream polyether users are more active in bargain hunting and replenishment. On October 25, the cash delivery price of Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9900 yuan / ton, and that of East China mainstream market was 10200 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9900 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 9700 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is around 9800 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.

III. future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency, it is expected that the market of n-propanol will be stable in the short term, and the future market will need to wait and see the price change of raw materials and the delivery.

I. price trend

In the third quarter of 2019, the phosphoric acid market broke the routine, and the ups and downs came as a surprise. According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average price of phosphoric acid on July 1 was 4516.67 yuan / ton, and on September 30 was 5500 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 21.77%%% in the third quarter.

II. Market analysis

Product: the first round of sharp increase in July was mainly due to environmental inspection factors. The shortage of yellow phosphorus supply led to the increase of market price. The raw material inventory is in a hurry, and the source of goods is hard to find. The high price of the carrier offers. The market of conduction phosphoric acid rose by 30.63% in July, with an average price of about 5900 yuan / ton. Most enterprises do not offer prices temporarily, and some enterprises have downtime plans. In the first half of August, the price of phosphoric acid market remained stable. In the second half of August, major enterprises began to lower their prices successively. As the price of upstream Yellow Phosphorus market fell under pressure, the market focus moved downward. In addition, Yunnan yellow phosphorus plant started construction in succession, the market supply increased, and the price of yellow phosphorus continued to fall. The price of phosphoric acid decreased under pressure, with a fall of 13.14% in August, with an average price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. In September, due to the impact of “three phosphorus treatment” on yellow phosphorus supply, the spot supply is tight, and the price is back to the high level, and the spot market is very tight. In addition, the stock preparation before the National Day holiday, the market price of thermal process phosphoric acid is supported by the favorable raw material end, and the price continues to rise, with an increase of 8.55% in September, and the average price is about 5500 yuan / ton. In the third quarter, due to the unstable raw material yellow phosphorus market, the conduction phosphoric acid market fluctuated. Entering October, the phosphoric acid market is becoming more and more stable, with occasional fluctuations, but the overall stable state is mostly.

Industry chain: in the near future, the phosphorus ore market continues to be weak and stable, and the high-end quotations of mining enterprises in some areas may be slightly reduced. The overall trading atmosphere in the field is weak, and the center of gravity in the field has a downward trend. At present, the new order volume is still small, the enterprise inventory is high, and many mining enterprises still deal with the previous orders, and the overall inventory of mining enterprises is slowly digested. Recently, the market price of yellow phosphorus has increased. According to the inspection by the central environmental protection group of Yunnan Province, the enterprises in Yunnan Province started to decline, and the market supply was tight. Some enterprises mainly supply early orders, and the external quotation price was increased. The phosphate Market is under construction, and some enterprises mainly digest inventory. The phosphate Market is weak in trading, and enterprises are cautious to wait and see the market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in September 2019, there were 2 rising and 2 falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry, and 1 rising and falling commodity. The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (20.29%) and phosphoric acid (8.55%); the main commodities that fell were monoammonium phosphate (- 3.88%) and diammonium phosphate (- 2.42%). This month’s average rise and fall was 4.51%.

III. future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, due to the impact of environmental protection, the raw material end is tight in stock and the cost side is insufficient. The demand of phosphoric acid enterprises is mostly in a state of cautious wait-and-see. The price fluctuates with the raw material end, and the on-site Trading is flat. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid in the future will be dominated.

I. price trend

This week, the weak operation of potassium sulfate, a single discussion of business transactions.

II. Market analysis

The operation rate of Mannheim industry has slightly decreased to 54%, and the quotation of manufacturers has not changed greatly, but the actual transaction price of a considerable number of manufacturers is determined by the size of the order, leading to price confusion; the lack of cost support, low downstream demand, leading to continued cold of potassium sulfate Market. Mannheim potassium sulfate factory: Northeast 50% powder 2600 or so; 50% Extruded round particles 2750 or so. In Hebei Province, 50% of the powders are 2700, 50% of the granules and 52% of the total water-soluble powders are 2800. About 2750% powder, about 2850-2900% particles and 52% water-soluble powder in Shandong Province.

III. future forecast

Analysts of potassium sulphate of business association think that: the cost support is weak, the demand is hard to get a big improvement, and the potassium sulphate market is hard to get a big improvement in the short term, at least the high-end prices will continue to fall.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of PTA spot market rebounded slightly on October 24, with the market average price of 5004 yuan / ton, up 1.51% compared with the previous trading day, and down 31.13% year on year. In the futures market, the main futures of PTA also rose. By the end of the trading day, the main futures (2001) closed at 4942 yuan / ton, up 64 yuan / ton or 1.31% compared with the previous trading day. Daily trading volume increased by 158600 to 1414600, and position decreased by 106712 to 1502300.

Recently, several large-scale units are involved in maintenance, resulting in PTA load dropping to 89%. Next week, PTA supply side unit maintenance and restart coexist, Honggang petrochemical unit is restarted, Pengwei petrochemical unit is restarted; Hengli petrochemical unit 2 is planned to be overhauled on October 26, and Ningbo Yisheng, Jiaxing petrochemical, helun Petrochemical still has unit maintenance plans in November and December.

Enterprise name capacity device dynamics

Ningbo Yisheng 200 plans to overhaul in November

220 short stop from October 18 to 21

Jiaxing Petrochemical planned to overhaul in November

Maintenance in December is planned for hailun Petrochemical 150

Honggang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was overhauled on October 14 and planned to restart on October 28.

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped on October 18, 1990, and plans to recover within one week.

Yisheng Dalian 225 load reduction operation, planned to resume within 15 days

Hengli Dalian 220 stop for maintenance from October 7 to October 18

220 planned maintenance on October 26

Jialong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on August 2, and restart to be determined

In addition, from the perspective of new production capacity, the new Fengming 2.5 million tons of equipment, of which 1.25 million tons of line is planned to produce grade products early next week. The single unit test run of the PTA project with an annual output of 1.2 million tons of China Thailand Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is coming to an end, which marks that the linkage test run of PTA plant is about to start. It will help fuel the feeding test run of PTA plant, and the market’s worry about the supply side will bring certain pressure on the price.

In terms of cost, the crude oil storage in the U.S. dropped unexpectedly, and the overnight oil price rebounded strongly. The closing price of PX market in Asia rose by $4 / ton, and the closing price was $765-767 / ton fob in South Korea and $785-787 / ton CFR in China, which had a certain positive impact. But the domestic PX production capacity is in the expansion cycle, the processing gap remains low, the price trend is temporarily stable, and the price of the mainstream factory is 6800 yuan / ton.

The rebound of raw material market has boosted the polyester related products in the downstream. The price of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is stable and warm, with the increase of 50-100 yuan / ton for some specifications. Among them, polyester POY (150D / 48F) is RMB 7150-7300 / T, DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) is RMB 8750-9200 / T, FDY (150D / 96F) is RMB 7300-7550 / T. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained around 77%, and there was no obvious progress in the terminal, so the market was cautious.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business club, believes that in summary, the recent progress in crude oil upward, PTA plant maintenance and Sino US economic and trade consultation has brought some support to PTA prices in the short term. However, as the new production capacity is approaching and the downstream demand is weak, the accumulated reservoir pressure is prominent, PTA is still likely to fall in the medium and long term.