Weak demand, weak consolidation of PE spot market

I. overall trend


From October 19 to 29, the polyethylene market showed a downward trend. As of the 29th day, the average price of LLDPE 7042 monitored by the business association in East China was about 7516.67 yuan / ton, with a 10 day drop of 0.44%; the average price of LDPE 2426h was about 8400 yuan / ton, with a 10 day drop of 1.32%; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 8316.67 yuan / ton, with a 10 day drop of 1.19%. The price of PE market in East China fell first and then stabilized.


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II. Market analysis


This is the peak consumption season of the “golden nine silver ten”. The demand for agricultural film in the lower reaches has improved, but the polyethylene market has fallen again and again. Now the “silver ten” is coming to an end, and the market trend is still in a weak position. In recent 10 days, PE trend has been stable after falling. On October 17, the linear futures plummeted, which has a significant impact on the mentality of the industry. The downstream attitude is wait-and-see. Replenishment is just needed, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light. Petrochemical enterprises have slightly reduced the factory price, weakened market cost support, and affected by environmental protection, the production of terminal enterprises has been hindered. Linear futures continue to decline, continue to suppress the market mentality, the peak season is coming to an end, the demand gradually turns weak. However, at present, the petrochemical inventory has fallen down, some plants have stopped for maintenance, and the market supply has decreased, which to some extent eased the supply pressure and supported the market. PE market is well intertwined and prices are weak.


Demand: the start-up of greenhouse film market has declined. Affected by environmental protection, the start-up rate in Shandong and Hebei has declined. Orders in the northwest and southwest increased by a small margin, and construction began to increase significantly. There are few orders from plastic film enterprises, most of which are in suspension.


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Import and export: about 1.3402 million tons of PE import in September 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 40200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 663400 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 276600 tons, and the total export volume of PE in September 2019 is 17200 tons.


III. future forecast


Looking forward to the future market, business analysts believe that with the end of the peak season, the market demand is gradually reduced. Although the current petrochemical inventory has fallen, the international crude oil has fallen, the futures market is green, which has a significant impact on the mentality of the operators. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection, some enterprises are hindered in production. It is expected that the market will still fall in the future.