I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 18, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several major areas monitored by the data is 17033 yuan / ton, up about 270 yuan / ton, or 1.59% compared with last Thursday (November 14).

II. Market analysis

Products: November is a traditional off-season, and the domestic silicone market is in a state of up and down extrusion without a breakthrough. Last week, the silicone DMC market as a whole was still weak. Until last Friday, in order to stimulate market demand, the prices of some factories in the silicone DMC market were increased, with the local increase of 300-500 yuan / ton, and the market situation was more volatile under the guidance of the upstream. With the downstream Orders have increased, the overall supply side of the site is relatively tight, the inventory quantity is reduced, and the firm mentality of the merchants is increased. Until today, the offer has moved up 300-500 yuan. The support from the bottom of the market is more and more stable, and with the increase of export demand, the market is supported by favorable conditions. When the supply is lower than the demand, the market price is fluctuating upward. Today’s monitoring data shows that: the main market quotation of organosilicon DMC manufacturers is 16500-18000 yuan / ton, and the transaction is slightly warmer, with the transaction price rising about 200 yuan / ton. However, some large transactions still approach the cost line, leaving little room for profit, and some downstream buyers are cautious and go with the market to buy goods. Therefore, whether the organosilicon DMC market can conduct smoothly after the price increase We need to continue to focus on downstream demand and cost support.

Industry chain: in recent years, the price trend of domestic silicone oil market is stable and slightly fluctuating, with little fluctuation up and down. The global economy is still in depression, which leads to the lack of demand for silicone oil in the industry, the unsatisfactory data of domestic and foreign sales, and the unwillingness of downstream terminals to take more goods and store them, all of which are taken as they are used. At present, the price of imported silicone oil remains stable. Due to the general demand, the delivery of agents is also relatively light. The main quotation of comprehensive imported methyl silicone oil is around 18400-20000 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Analysts of business club think: it is expected that the high price volume of silicone market will not be too large in the short term. If the price is not followed by the demand after the manufacturer’s rise, it is difficult for the market to keep high support.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

2. Latest price (November 18, 2019): 11725 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11500-11600 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11400-11600 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11700-11800 yuan / ton. 。

3. Key points of analysis: Sichuan Yunnan silicon plant’s production reduction overlaps the low silicon price in the early stage, and the cost factor becomes the leading factor. Domestic manufacturers have strong willingness to hold up the price, and the silicon price has increased significantly since August.

At the supply end, with the return of silicon price, some silicon plants in Xinjiang started construction actively. It is reported that in October, the operating rate of silicon metal industry was 46.9%, increasing by 1.7 percentage points on a month on month basis, decreasing by 9.9 percentage points on a year-on-year basis.

On the demand side, the domestic rigid procurement is the main part, the early procurement is more, and the export is relatively flat.

4. Future forecast: the overall supply will move down, and the focus will be on the change of downstream demand. It is expected that the short-term operation of metallic silicon will be mainly strong.

I. price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to run at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1783.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1783.33 yuan / ton, up or down 0.

II. Market analysis

Product: in November, the overall market of sodium metabisulfite is still in a downturn. The market price range of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is 1700-1900 yuan / ton, most of which are concentrated around 1800 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is relatively sufficient, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the new order transaction is limited, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of the old customers. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry chain: in November, the price of soda ash and sulfur in the upper reaches fell again, the cost of raw materials fell again, the purchase and sale of trade subjects were more cautious, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite was slightly under pressure.

III. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that the cost of raw materials is weakening again, the market demand continues to be weak, and a lot of negative air is suppressed. In the short term, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is under pressure.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, this week’s soda ash operation is mainly stable. In the week, the average market price in East China was 1730 yuan / ton by the end of the week, down 36.36 yuan / ton, or 2.08%, compared with last weekend, down 18.52% year on year. On November 15, the commodity index of light soda ash was 88.72, which was the same as yesterday, 24.72% lower than 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 40.49% higher than 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic soda price is mainly in stable operation, the market continues to decline, and the trading atmosphere is light and stable. At present, the mainstream factory price of domestic light soda is 1600-1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream delivery price of domestic heavy soda is 1850-1950 yuan / ton. This week, the heavy soda market continues to decline, the factory’s delivery situation is general, the transaction center continues to move down, the delivery pressure of soda manufacturers increases, and there are many manufacturers Execute month end pricing.

Industrial chain: in the downstream, the price of sodium metabisulfite is stable this week, with the average domestic production price of 1783.33 yuan / ton. The overall market performance is average. At present, the devices of manufacturers are in normal operation, and the order receiving situation is good. It is expected that the market price of sodium metabisulfite in China will continue to be weak.

This week, the price trend of glass in the lower reaches of the whole slightly increased, while that in some regions slightly decreased. The difference between the north and the South increased, and the transaction was fair. The market in North China is stable, moderate and small. The prices of some Shahe factories are down, and the market prices keep falling. The terminal market demand in South China and East China is fair, and the market prices are mainly up. Northeast, southwest and northwest glass production enterprises offer relatively stable prices. From a regional perspective, the North-South Division is still obvious. The market as a whole maintained a steady, medium and small upward trend.

Industry: there is no pressure from environmental protection policies on soda ash enterprises, and the inventory of enterprises keeps rising. In addition, domestic soda prices are decreasing and the goods are slowing down. The vitality of the downstream demand side of soda ash is limited, and under the influence of no obvious demand increase, the supply is excessive and the original balance relationship continues to tilt, and the market is still weak.

III. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that: the downstream demand is weak, the price of soda ash remains low, coupled with the current traditional peak production season, the planned maintenance is limited, and the starting load of soda ash manufacturers remains high. On the other hand, recently, the price of liquid alkali has continued to decline, which has a negative impact on the market of soda ash. The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the market confidence is insufficient, and the domestic soda ash market still bears some downward pressure in the short term. It is expected that the market of soda ash will be dominated by consolidation at a low level. See the downstream market demand for details.

Introduction: the cumulative growth of industrial value-added data above Designated Size published by the National Bureau of statistics has continued to decline year-on-year. Through the analysis of industry by industry, we can finally find out the impact of trade war on Global trade and on China’s import and export trade from the continuous decline of China’s industrial export delivery value growth. The export of plastic products, especially polyethylene polypropylene, has intensified The industry is deeply affected, and the price bottom is still on the way.

I. the added value of industries above Designated Size continues to decline

The latest October data released by the International Bureau of statistics shows that the downward pressure on the economy is still high. In October 2019, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.7% year-on-year (the growth rate of the following added value is the actual growth rate after deducting the price factor), 1.1 percentage points lower than that in September. From a month on month basis, in October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 0.17% over the previous month. From January to October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.6% year on year.

As shown in the figure, in terms of the accumulated value-added of industries above Designated Size, the trend of continuous decline in recent two years shows that the economic downturn continues. From a year-on-year perspective, the added value of industries above Designated Size in August was 4.4%, falling below the 4% level for the first time, a new low in 17 years, and 5.8% in September. The economic downturn seemed to be suspended, and another 5% in October reached 4.7%. The downward pressure on the economy continued to increase. The U.S. economy has been outstanding. For three consecutive months, the manufacturing PMI of ISM was below the boom and bust line of 50. The initial value of quarterly GDP fell and consumption fell, making the global economic growth slowdown likely to enter into “resonance”, trade war and other uncertain factors, increasing downward pressure.

II. The industrial added value of raw material end and terminal is not optimistic

In October, the value-added of chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry increased by 3% year-on-year, while that of rubber and plastic products industry increased by 3.9% year-on-year. Obviously, the growth rate of downstream products industry is faster than that of upstream raw materials. The difference between the growth rate of the two industries narrowed for three consecutive months, because the decline rate of products industry in October is faster than that of raw materials. In October last year, the price of PE, PP and other plastic raw materials began to decline. The growth rate of rubber and plastic products was significantly lower than that of raw materials. Generally speaking, with the decline of the price of raw materials, the cost of end products decreased. From the perspective of the growth of plastic products, the current situation of the product industry is slightly better than last year.

From January to October, the added value of chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry increased by 4% year-on-year, while that of rubber and plastic products industry increased by 4.8% year-on-year, showing a continuous downward trend in the year. The growth difference between the two is the same as that of last month, which is larger than that of previous months, indicating that the decline in the price of raw materials supports the growth of terminal output. The added value of plastic products industry is slightly higher than that of the same period of last year, both year-on-year and cumulative year-on-year, indicating that the downstream industry of plastic products is better than that of plastic raw materials.

III. under the trade war, the growth rate of export delivery value continued to accelerate and decline

Export delivery value: refers to the value of products exported by industrial enterprises (including those sold to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) by themselves or entrusted to foreign trade departments, as well as the value of products produced by foreign investors such as samples, processing, assembling and compensation trade. The value of export delivery is different from that of export. Export is essentially a demand side indicator, which measures the total value of the products exported in the current period, that is, it is not necessarily the current production; while the value of industrial export delivery is the value of the products produced in the current period, delivered to the foreign trade operation department or self export, so it can more represent the real prosperity of the supply side in the current period.

The trade war cannot be ended. Global trade is greatly affected, which not only affects the U.S. economic downturn, but also more affects China’s economic growth. In terms of industrial export delivery value, the logistics of chemical raw materials and chemical products industry has declined year-on-year or cumulative year-on-year, and the more serious is that both the year-on-year and cumulative ratio are negative, and the expansion trend is intensified. The rubber and plastic products industry is slightly better, showing a negative value year on year, and the cumulative ratio is close to a negative value. The data shows that it affects the export of China’s chemical industry and rubber and plastic industry. The more uncertain the trade situation is, the more cautious enterprises are expecting to reduce current production. After all, the plastic industry still has a certain share of exports to the United States. Instead, PE and other raw materials are imported into the United States more.

To sum up, the macro data reflects that the export of rubber and plastic products industry continues to be depressed, and the prices of PE and PP plastic raw materials are still not optimistic. In the case of macro downturn, it is better to follow the trend. In terms of the ex factory price index of synthetic materials and plastic products, they continued to decline year on year, and there is no bottom signal yet.

Thailand encourages the export of natural rubber to boost farmers’ incomes, according to Thailand’s commerce minister on Wednesday, after ending a four-month export ban a few weeks ago.

After negotiation, Thailand will export 260480 tons of rubber to two private buyers in mainland China and Hong Kong, said jurin laksanawisit, Thailand’s commerce minister. Including 160480 tons of 20 standard glue (str20) and 100000 tons of tobacco film (RSS3). The value of the above agreements is not less than THB 13 billion (US $428 million).

The minister also said that Thailand had recently exported 100000 tons of rubber worth 7.5 billion baht to India. He would also visit Turkey and Germany to sign more export agreements.

As part of a plan by the world’s major rubber exporters to boost international rubber prices, Thailand cut its natural rubber exports in the four months from the end of May to the end of September this year.

The trilateral rubber Committee (ITRC), composed of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, agreed in March to jointly cut the export volume of Tianjiao by about 240000 tons.

ITRC said last week that the three countries eventually cut exports by 441648 tons.

According to ITRC report, in the first half of 2019, the total rubber exports of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia decreased by 10.6% compared with the same period last year, which was partly due to the decrease in supply.

A fungal disease called Pestalotiopsis broke out in rubber plantations in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia during the peak cutting season in October December, causing leaves to turn yellow.

The fungus first broke out in Indonesia and Malaysia, and then spread to Thailand. It has a serious impact on the rubber trees in the main rubber producing countries.

Under the threat of the disease, rubber production in the affected areas may be halved. At present, more than 450000 hectares of rubber plantations in the three countries are reported to have found the disease.

In October, the production of industrial raw coal and crude oil above designated size was stable, while the production of natural gas and electric power slowed down.

I. steady growth of raw coal production and decline of coal import growth

In October, the output of raw coal was 320 million tons, up 4.4% year-on-year, with the same growth rate as last month; the average daily output was 10.48 million tons, down 320000 tons on a month on month basis. From January to October, the output of raw coal was 3.06 billion tons, up 4.5% year on year.

In October, the coal import was 25685000 tons, up 11.3% year on year, down 9.3 percentage points from last month; from January to October, the coal import was 280 million tons, up 9.6% year on year.

Coal prices fell slightly. On November 1, the comprehensive transaction prices of 5500, 5000 and 4500 kcal coal in Qinhuangdao Port were 565, 505 and 453 yuan per ton, respectively, down 5, 4 and 3 yuan from the end of September.

II. Stable crude oil production and accelerated import

In October, the crude oil production was 16.11 million tons, basically the same as that of the same period last year; the daily average output was 520000 tons, down by 11000 tons on a month on month basis. From January to October, crude oil production reached 159250000 tons, up 1.1% year on year.

In October, crude oil imports reached 45.51 million tons, up 17.1% year-on-year, 6.3 percentage points higher than last month. From January to October, crude oil imports reached 414.545 million tons, up 10.5% year on year.

In October, the international crude oil price fell in shock. On October 31, the spot FOB price of Brent crude oil was $59.3/barrel, down $1.69 from September 30.

III. crude oil processing maintains rapid growth

In October, 57.84 million tons of crude oil were processed, up 9.2% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points slower than last month; the average daily processing was 1.866 million tons, down 17 thousand tons on a month on month basis. From January to October, 537.1 million tons of crude oil were processed, up 6.4% year on year.

IV. natural gas production slows down and imports fall

In October, natural gas production reached 14.6 billion cubic meters, up 8.2% year-on-year, 2.4 percentage points slower than last month; the average daily production reached 470 million cubic meters, an increase of 20 million cubic meters on a month on month basis. From January to October, natural gas production reached 142.3 billion cubic meters, up 9.3% year on year.

In October, the import of natural gas reached 6.52 million tons, down 10.6% year on year. The growth rate changed from positive to negative, up 8.0% last month. From January to October, natural gas imports reached 77.71 million tons, up 7.9% year on year.

V. slight slowdown in power production

In October, the power generation was 571.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, a slowdown of 0.7 percentage points over the previous month; the average daily power generation was 18.43 billion kwh, a decrease of 1.26 billion kwh on a month on month basis. From January to October, power generation reached 5.9 trillion kwh, up 3.1% year on year.

In terms of varieties, the growth rate of thermal power production slowed down slightly in October, the decline of hydropower expanded, nuclear power and solar power fell, and wind power turned from negative to positive. Among them, thermal power increased by 5.9% year-on-year, 0.1% slower than last month; hydropower decreased by 4.1%, 3.0% larger; nuclear power and solar power increased by 5.4% and 3.0%, 12.5% and 16.4% lower respectively; wind power increased by 10.0%, 7.9% lower last month.

I. price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the market of epichlorohydrin has declined in recent days. On Friday (November 8), the average price of the enterprise was 17000 yuan / ton, on November 13, the average price of the enterprise was 14700 yuan / ton, and the six-day decline of epichlorohydrin was 13.53%. In a three-month cycle, it rose 2.08% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market fell recently. At present, there is no inventory pressure for manufacturers, but the enthusiasm of downstream operators is not high, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. On August 8, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 17000 yuan / ton, on November 11, the price of epichlorohydrin fell to 16266.67 yuan / ton, on December 12, the price rose to 16600 yuan / ton, and on March 13, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14700 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China is about 14000-15300 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong Province has increased recently. At present, the market turnover is about 7320-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7350 yuan / ton. At present, propylene inventory is low, supply is more tight, downstream purchasing sentiment is good, and crude oil and PP market is still ideal, some prices are still rising. The downstream epoxy resin is mainly weak and downward, and the trading atmosphere is stalemate.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on November 13, 2019, among which the commodity range with an increase of more than 5% is mainly arranged, and the fluctuation is still possible. Chloroform (3.81%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are epichlorohydrin (- 11.45%), urea (- 3.23%) and lithium carbonate (- 2.70%). The 13 day average rose or fell 0.06%.

3. Future forecast:

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, the cost support brought by upstream raw materials has not had much impact in recent months, so the supply and demand side is still the key to increase or decrease the price of epichlorohydrin. Due to the expected restart of some units and release of new production capacity in the later stage, downstream operators are more cautious in participating in the process, and the trading in epichlorohydrin market is stagnant. The weak operation of downstream epoxy resin has also become a major constraint on the operation road of epichlorohydrin. It is expected that in the short term, the weak operation of epichlorohydrin market will be dominated, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of upstream and downstream mainstream manufacturers.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the market price of diammonium phosphate in China has remained low recently. Up to now, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 13 is 2335 yuan / ton, down 1.34% compared with November 1 (2366.67). On November 12, DAP commodity index was 69.65, down 0.6 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 32.37% from 102.98, the highest on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: the market of DAP in China is weak, and the market is in a downturn. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2250-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2350-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province 2400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: at present, the phosphorus ore market as a whole is stable, with a large inventory pressure and a small amount of procurement in the downstream. The price of domestic sulfur market continues to fall, with the market dominated by negative sentiment, which is more likely to continue to fall. The domestic liquid ammonia market is mainly in decline. In the short term, the market is not very optimistic, and the focus of insufficient trading moves down. About 50% of diammonium was started and some enterprises were overhauled.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on November 12, 2019, among which the top three commodities are mixed xylene (2.39%), chloroform (2.16%) and epichlorohydrin (2.05%) There are 17 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were aniline (- 4.07%), titanium dioxide (- 2.53%) and acetic anhydride (- 2.00%). The average price of this day was – 0.12%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of diammonium phosphate of the business association believe that the market price of diammonium raw materials has fallen, the market demand is insufficient, the industry has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and enterprises take more goods on demand. With the coming of the conference, we look forward to the good news. It is expected that the weak market of diammonium phosphate will be sorted out in the later stage, and it is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market trends of phosphorus chemical industry.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of November 13, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several major areas monitored by the data is 16766 yuan / ton, down about 70 yuan / ton, or 0.4% compared with the beginning of the month (November 1).

II. Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of November, the silicone market is unpredictable, and the market is under various pressures. The whole market is dominated by weak consolidation. Most of the cargo holders fall into losses, high stocks of traders and distributors. Downstream purchases are made on demand, and the whole silicone industry chain market is shrouded in a cautious attitude of stock preparation. Most of the small and medium-sized manufacturers have fierce competition. The decline of orders directly affects the profit and loss of small factories, and also restricts their demand for upstream raw materials to a certain extent. On November 5 last week, the market of organosilicon DMC was slightly increased. On November 5, the data monitoring showed that the average price of the market was around 16900 yuan / ton, which was slightly increased by 70 yuan / ton compared with that on November 1. After the price was maintained for a week, from the beginning of this week (November 11), most of the mainstream manufacturers in the market successively appeared the phenomenon that the price center of quotation for organosilicon DMC products again gave way, and the price dropped Almost set a new low in the year. Up to now, most of the production enterprises of organosilicon DMC have quoted profits in the market. The price reference is 16-17.5 yuan / kg. The low price has not driven the upsurge of hoarding in the downstream market. At present, the transaction is still in a slow state.

Industry chain: Recently, the prices of silicone oil and 107 rubber products in the downstream of organosilicon DMC have declined slightly. The overall market is weak and the market is stable for the time being. The downstream enterprises basically buy and use as needed, and maintain on-demand procurement. At present, the average reference price of 107 rubber in East China, South China and North China continues to stabilize at 17-18.5 yuan / kg (cash transfer). The actual negotiated transaction price or small yield Profit.

III. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that: with the coming of winter, the market of organosilicon DMC has basically entered the off-season, and the trading atmosphere of the whole market is not active. In the short term, the overall price of organosilicon DMC may not be effectively back to the high point.