I. price trend
According to the monitoring data of the business agency, this week’s soda ash operation is mainly stable. In the week, the average market price in East China was 1730 yuan / ton by the end of the week, down 36.36 yuan / ton, or 2.08%, compared with last weekend, down 18.52% year on year. On November 15, the commodity index of light soda ash was 88.72, which was the same as yesterday, 24.72% lower than 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 40.49% higher than 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
II. Market analysis
Products: this week, the domestic soda price is mainly in stable operation, the market continues to decline, and the trading atmosphere is light and stable. At present, the mainstream factory price of domestic light soda is 1600-1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream delivery price of domestic heavy soda is 1850-1950 yuan / ton. This week, the heavy soda market continues to decline, the factory’s delivery situation is general, the transaction center continues to move down, the delivery pressure of soda manufacturers increases, and there are many manufacturers Execute month end pricing.
Industrial chain: in the downstream, the price of sodium metabisulfite is stable this week, with the average domestic production price of 1783.33 yuan / ton. The overall market performance is average. At present, the devices of manufacturers are in normal operation, and the order receiving situation is good. It is expected that the market price of sodium metabisulfite in China will continue to be weak.
This week, the price trend of glass in the lower reaches of the whole slightly increased, while that in some regions slightly decreased. The difference between the north and the South increased, and the transaction was fair. The market in North China is stable, moderate and small. The prices of some Shahe factories are down, and the market prices keep falling. The terminal market demand in South China and East China is fair, and the market prices are mainly up. Northeast, southwest and northwest glass production enterprises offer relatively stable prices. From a regional perspective, the North-South Division is still obvious. The market as a whole maintained a steady, medium and small upward trend.
Industry: there is no pressure from environmental protection policies on soda ash enterprises, and the inventory of enterprises keeps rising. In addition, domestic soda prices are decreasing and the goods are slowing down. The vitality of the downstream demand side of soda ash is limited, and under the influence of no obvious demand increase, the supply is excessive and the original balance relationship continues to tilt, and the market is still weak.
III. future forecast
Analysts of the business club believe that: the downstream demand is weak, the price of soda ash remains low, coupled with the current traditional peak production season, the planned maintenance is limited, and the starting load of soda ash manufacturers remains high. On the other hand, recently, the price of liquid alkali has continued to decline, which has a negative impact on the market of soda ash. The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the market confidence is insufficient, and the domestic soda ash market still bears some downward pressure in the short term. It is expected that the market of soda ash will be dominated by consolidation at a low level. See the downstream market demand for details.