According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week is 11016 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week is 11033 yuan / ton, up 0.15%.

Products: at present, the price of domestic activated carbon is rising slightly, and the ex factory price of East China coconut shell water purification activated carbon is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the domestic activated carbon market is getting better, and most of the goods are from orders.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the single order, the purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, the environmental protection policies boost the activated carbon market, and the performance of the activated carbon market is stable.

Forecast: in some areas of the activated carbon market, traders have strong willingness to hold up prices, and the downstream procurement is better than that in the early stage. It is expected that the market price of activated carbon will change only in a short period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China rose this week. Last Friday (May 18), the sample enterprise price of the business association was 5266.67 yuan / ton, and this Friday (May 22), the sample enterprise price was 5500.007 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.43%. The price is 35.17% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products:

This week, the styrene market price rebounded steadily and maintained stability after a substantial increase. On May 18, the styrene in East China closed at 5300-5400 yuan / ton, and on May 22, 5500 yuan / ton, up 100-200 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On May 18, South China styrene closed at 5300-5350 yuan / ton, and on May 22, 5400-5450 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. After this week’s rise in the domestic styrene market, there was a lack of further positive stimulus and the price was stable. Affected by the positive impact of crude oil rise this week, the chemical industry as a whole went well. However, the supply of styrene in the domestic market is still sufficient, and there are few spot shipments. Although the price of downstream styrene rises sharply due to the favorable influence of “one belt and one helmet” in China, the downstream enterprises still mainly digest the early orders and contracts of styrene, which has a limited and short impact on styrene. In addition, the port inventory, this week’s port styrene inventory rose for four consecutive weeks, the spot market supply surplus purchase situation intensified.

Industrial chain:

The upstream crude oil market strengthened this week, driving the strong trend of ethylene and pure benzene, and the styrene production cost support improved. Downstream ABS prices soared, mainly driven by the hype of helmet demand, which led to higher market sentiment, but in fact, the late rise was weak. EPS and PS prices also remained high. Generally speaking, the downstream enterprises of styrene still maintain rigid demand.

3、 Future outlook

As a whole, the whole styrene market lacks strong support points. In May, the situation of styrene supply surplus still exists, but crude oil has a great impact on the styrene industry chain, and the crude oil price is still likely to rebound. It is expected that styrene will be difficult to rise next week, and will mainly be consolidated in a weak shock, with a price of 5350-5500 yuan / ton. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel rose this week. The price of domestic gasoline was 4664 yuan / ton, 2.74% higher than that of last week. The price of domestic diesel was 4962 yuan / ton, 0.55% higher than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week’s crude oil futures rebounded day by day. In addition to the strong gasoline consumption in summer and the increase in downstream replenishment operations, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose slightly this week.

Industrial chain: since May, OPEC + member countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have implemented large-scale production reduction; crude oil production of the United States has also declined significantly; crude oil inventory of the United States and crude oil inventory of Cushing have also declined significantly. Multiple positive factors jointly push up the international crude oil price. At present, WTI has reached a high since March 10.

Market: in summer, automobile oil consumption is increasing, gasoline consumption is obviously improving, and the international crude oil price has an upward trend, and the downstream replenishment demand is increasing. In terms of diesel, the supporting role of logistics, transportation, engineering, infrastructure and other rigid demands for diesel is still obvious, but at present, the diesel output of refineries is large, so the diesel delivery of some refineries is not as expected. This week’s rise in diesel prices was also less than that of gasoline.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that: at present, the demand of crude oil market is still in the process of gradual recovery, and the overseas epidemic is still serious. In the short term, the oil price will continue to fluctuate, and the price adjustment of domestic oil products will continue to be below the floor price, and it is expected that the domestic oil product market will be stable and positive.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus decreased this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 17450 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 17300 yuan / ton. The price in the week decreased by 0.86%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus market price is down this week. At present, the overall market of yellow phosphorus is generally traded, spot tension is improving, and downstream procurement is more cautious. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16900-17000 yuan / ton. The quotation in Guizhou is about 16900-17000 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton. The overall market performance is average, the downstream procurement is more cautious, and traders mainly wait and see.

Industry chain: upstream and downstream markets of phosphate rock have been weak in recent days, with insufficient support. In Guizhou Province, the quotation of phosphate ore from many mining enterprises was slightly lowered and put into operation, with a decrease of 10-30 yuan / ton. Yunnan’s market is relatively stable, Hubei’s current weak sorting operation is the main, and Guangxi’s overall weak phosphate ore market is downward. It is expected that the phosphorus ore market will be weak and stable in recent days. The market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is 1780 yuan / ton, which is the same as the previous trading day and the same period last month. The price in Southwest China is mainly stable, and the future market is stable. Downstream, phosphoric acid, phosphate market all over the market stable, general market sales, enterprises to maintain the main orders of old customers.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business news agency think that the market price of yellow phosphorus fell this week, and the market trading atmosphere was average. Downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, take goods carefully. The company basically has no inventory, and the on-site spot sales are OK. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market price rose first and then fell this week. As of May 22, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market was 3560 yuan / ton, up 3.62% from the beginning of the week, down 40.9% year on year. Crude oil continued to strengthen, its own device maintenance increased, and suppliers bought back the spot again. Under this impetus, PTA price center continued to move up, but on the 22nd, the price fell back and adjusted, down 1.99% per day.

In terms of equipment, the 400000 ton PTA plant of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance in the morning of May 18, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days. The 2.2-million-ton PTA plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance from January 19, with a planned maintenance period of 1-2 weeks. The starting load of PTA in China decreased from 92% to 87%. In June, the maintenance plan of PTA mainly includes Hainan Yisheng, Xinjiang Zhongtai and Yizheng Chemical fiber. The expansion of profit level makes PTA plant maintenance willingness decline, which does not exclude the possibility of delaying maintenance. In terms of inventory, at the beginning of the year, the production capacity was put into production with high start-up rate, and now the social inventory is more than 3.5 million tons. In terms of processing fee, PTA processing fee has fluctuated between 700-800 yuan / ton since May, which is undoubtedly on the high side in the current stage of overcapacity, mainly due to the weakness of the upstream PX link and the continuous interest yield.

Enterprise name capacity device change

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced maintenance on May 9, 2006

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop for maintenance from May 19, with a planned maintenance period of 1-2 weeks

Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop for maintenance in the morning on May 18, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days

Hainan Yisheng 200 plans to stop for maintenance for 12-15 days on June 5

The upstream crude oil market, supported by the supply contraction exceeding the expectation and the demand turning better, shows a pattern of fluctuating and rising prices. However, PX did not perform as expected, and its price remained weak. Despite the overhaul of some units in Asia in May, PX supply was still abundant. As of May 21, Asia’s closing prices were $488 / T FOB South Korea and $508 / T CFR China.

Average market price of polyester filament, unit: yuan / ton

Product: up and down on May 15, 2020, up and down on May 22, 2020

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 6006 6331 5.41% – 22.28%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5334 5514 3.37% – 29.97%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) 7045 7251 2.93% – 24.17%

Polyester staple (1.4d / 38mm) 6532 6682 2.30% – 20.25%

The downstream polyester market rebounded slightly, of which the most obvious increase was polyester FDY, with a weekly increase of 5.41%, followed by polyester POY, polyester DTY and polyester staple, with an increase of 3.37%, 2.93% and 2.30% respectively. The trend of cost end is stronger, which further improves the price focus of polyester market, but the downstream replenishment is weak and cautious. From the perspective of the terminal textile market, the domestic and foreign trade markets have recovered to a certain extent since May, and the domestic demand has gradually recovered. The orders in the weaving market have slightly improved compared with the previous period, the goods are better than the previous period, the enthusiasm of manufacturers has increased, and the loom operating rate has risen by more than 62%. Some overseas countries announced the release of the seal, and the export was also quietly launched. It is reported that orders from Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia have been placed in succession recently.

In terms of textile exports, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports reached US $21.361 billion, an increase of 38.43% month on month and 9.77% year on year. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 14.620 billion US dollars, up 49.36% year on year; the export value of clothing (including clothing and accessories) was 6.739 billion US dollars, up 30.31% year on year. From January to April, China’s cumulative export of textiles and clothing was 66.626 billion US dollars, down 12.06% year on year, of which the cumulative export of textiles was 37.311 billion US dollars, up 2.90% year on year; the cumulative export of clothing was 29.308 billion US dollars, down 22.33% year on year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that PTA market is stable and rising driven by the positive cost side. But it is worth noting that PTA “high inventory, high processing costs, high operating rate” has not been fundamentally resolved. At the same time, the internal and external trade of the downstream terminal is recovering slowly, and the order performance is not stable. At present, the purchase of raw materials remains rigid. If the follow-up orders cannot be followed up in time, the possibility of the loom load reduction again will not be ruled out in late June, and the substantial recovery still needs to be observed. Overall, negative factors remain, PTA prices continue to rise under pressure, or enter the stage of correction.

Since May, the raw materials phenol and acetone have been rising continuously, the BPA plant has been under pressure, and the market price has been rising unilaterally. According to the monitoring of business agency, the market offer was 8800 yuan / ton on May 5, and 9960 yuan / ton as of May 22, up 13.18% on the whole.

Since May, phenol and acetone have shown an overall upward trend. Up to now, phenol offers 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and acetone offers 8000 yuan / ton. Therefore, the theoretical cost of BPA plant is 9902 yuan / ton, and the gross profit is 58 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the cost point of view, phenol, as an important raw material of bisphenol A products, has experienced twists and turns since May. After the market goes up, it will be recalled, and then it will continue to push up the price with insufficient driving force. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average offer of phenol Market in China was 6400 yuan / ton on May 5, 6800 yuan / ton on May 22, with an overall increase of 6.25%, of which 7012 yuan / ton was offered on May 10, with a maximum amplitude of 9.57%. By the time of publication, the offers of major mainstream regions in China were 6600-6700 yuan / ton in East China, 6600-6700 yuan / ton in South China, 6600-6700 yuan / ton in Shandong and surrounding areas of Yanshan. The consumption rate of phenol in the production unit of bisphenol A accounted for 0.87, the production cost of p-bisphenol a accounted for a large proportion, and the upward price of phenol after saving strongly supported the price of bisphenol A.

Acetone, another important raw material, accounts for 0.27% of BPA consumption rate in the production unit. Although the proportion is less than that of phenol, the cost of high valence acetone for BPA can not be ignored. After the festival, acetone overall showed a sharp push up and a narrow callback. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the acetone market offered 7325 yuan / ton on May 5, and 8175 yuan / ton on May 22, with an overall increase of 11.6% and a maximum amplitude of 13.58%. By the time of publication, the offers of major mainstream regions in China were 8000-8100 yuan / ton in East China, 7850-7950 yuan / ton in South China and 8400-8500 yuan / ton in Shandong and surrounding areas of Yanshan.

Secondly, from the demand side, the downstream PC market as a whole shows a unilateral upward trend, rising from 12100 yuan / ton to 13433 yuan / ton, with an overall upward trend of 11.02%. The upward mobility of PC mainly comes from the implementation of the “one helmet one belt” policy. As the raw material for helmet front baffle production, the soaring helmet will surely benefit the raw materials, and the PC market will inevitably usher in a small peak of development, but helmet Technology The content is low, the service life is long, and the sharp rise trend is difficult to appear. In the long run, there is still a weak expectation in the domestic PC market. Another important downstream is the high-level finishing of epoxy resin. At present, the liquid epoxy resin is in the period of 19400-20000 yuan / ton. The downstream is in a slow recovery period, and the demand is gradually increasing. The upstream bisphenol A is the main one. After a large round of upward movement, the offer of epichlorohydrin is stable, and the price is relatively high. With the support of favorable cost and demand, the transaction of epoxy resin is gradually increasing. There is no pressure for resin factory to ship.

Thirdly, the domestic bisphenol a unit is 70-80% as a whole, among which, Sinopec Mitsubishi 180000 T / A, Lihua yiweiyuan 240000 T / A, Changchun 400000 T / a start-up are 80%, Kesi Chuang 410000 T / a bisphenol a unit is shut down on May 9, Sinopec Mitsui and Huizhou Zhongxin are operating at full load, but mainly for their own use, and some of the suppliers are long-term customers.

From the perspective of the whole phenol ketone industry chain, the overall increase is the main trend, the upstream pure benzene and propylene show a unilateral upward trend after the festival, and the middle and downstream products are also followed by the upper actors. From the macro perspective, WTI crude oil rose from 19.78 US dollars / barrel to 33.92 US dollars / ton after the festival, up 71.49%. The sharp rise of crude oil after the festival has formed a good support for petrochemical products. At present, the cost side has declined, and the terminal demand has not increased significantly. However, the start-up of BPA plant is relatively stable, and the market supply is fair. In the short term, the BPA market will continue to maintain a narrow trend and push up. However, due to the insufficient benefits, it is difficult to continue to rise in the future. The business society expects that the BPA market in East China will maintain at 9950-10100 yuan / ton, and long-term attention will be paid to the start-up of downstream plants.

Data shows that the natural rubber commodity index on May 22 was 29.68, down 0.48 points from yesterday, 70.32% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 8.80% higher than the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

As shown in the figure above, from the beginning of January to may 2020, the overall market of natural rubber shows a downward trend first and then a small upward trend, and the price at the end of March and the beginning of April is a phased bottom. According to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business association, the mainstream price of Baodao whole milk on January 1, 2020 is about 12130 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on April 2 is 9200 yuan / ton, with a drop of 24.15% since the beginning of the year. Since then, Tianjiao has been shaking upward until May 20, 10170 yuan / ton, with a rebound of 10.54%. In the first and middle of May, the whole price of Tianjiao fluctuated upward. The price of 9600 yuan / ton on the first day is also the lowest since this month. The price of 10170 yuan / ton on the 20th, the highest since this month, rebounded by 5.94%.

Factor analysis:

Supply: China: the rubber cutting in the production area is still advancing slowly. Factors such as weather drought, insect disease and low rubber price caused by poor demand are concentrated on rubber farmers, resulting in weak willingness to cut rubber, small production of new rubber, local gap of new rubber and 19 year rubber in Banna production area, and price adjustment. Southeast Asia: it is expected that the drought in Southeast Asia will be alleviated to some extent in June, and the rubber cutting will be resumed gradually at that time, but the rubber volume caused by the drought will be delayed by about one month compared with that in previous years; at the same time, although the current rubber price is at a low price, but for the difficult economy during the epidemic period, the rubber agricultural rubber cutting can still maintain a relatively stable income, so the industry is expected to be around the middle and late June The rubber production in Southeast Asia will be significantly improved. Therefore, at present, the amount of new rubber at home and abroad has little impact on the market supply and more inventory consumption.

Inventory: data shows that as of May 22, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 239395 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 234550 tons, 80 tons and 160 tons less than last week respectively; from the perspective of the rubber inventory pressure of the exchange, the total latex and No. 20 rubber inventory decreased slightly. It is reported that the rubber stock in Qingdao free trade zone is at a high level and under heavy pressure. The turnover of USD glue Market in Qingdao Free Trade Zone improved slightly, and the price of Baodao whole milk was 10000 yuan / ton. The short-term domestic supply of new rubber is small, the overall domestic inventory is high, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still large.

Demand: tire enterprises: under the current situation, the operating rate of domestic and foreign tire enterprises is still at a low level. As of May 14, the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire manufacturers was 50.93%, up 23.27% month on month, down 14.78% year on year; the operating rate of all steel tire manufacturers was 69.61%, up 12.30% month on month, down 1.41% year on year. From the perspective of market reaction, domestic traders generally feel that the volume of rubber raw material transactions this month is far behind that of March and April, with a large gap. Automobile: according to the data of China Automobile Association, in April, China’s automobile production and sales were 2.012 million and 2.07 million respectively, up 46.6% and 43.5% on a month on month basis, up 2.3% and 4.4% on a year-on-year basis, respectively, and the automobile sales volume ended the decline for 21 consecutive months. However, as one of the most important auto parts, the output of tires has not gone out of the decline path. In April, the output of domestic rubber tires was 66.612 million, down 12.2% year-on-year; from January to April, the cumulative output was 218.072 million, down 17.4% year-on-year. In terms of tire export, according to the statistics of Qingdao Customs, in the first four months, Shandong’s foreign trade export amounted to 337.42 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9% from a decrease of 4.5% in the first quarter; tire export fell by 17% month on month, of which tire export fell by 8.4% in the first quarter.

Macro policy: first of all, the government work report pointed out that it is expected to reduce the new burden for enterprises by more than 2.5 trillion yuan in the whole year. This year, we will continue to implement systems such as the reduction of value-added tax rate and enterprise endowment insurance rate, and increase tax cuts and reduce fees by about 500 billion yuan. In the early stage, the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction due before June was introduced, including exemption from the payment of small and medium-sized enterprises’ endowment insurance, unemployment insurance and work-related injury insurance units, reduction of small-scale taxpayers’ value-added tax, exemption from value-added tax on public transport, catering and accommodation, tourism and entertainment, culture and sports and other services, reduction of Civil Aviation Development Fund and port construction fees, and the implementation period was all extended to the end of this year. The payment of income tax for small and micro enterprises and individual businesses will be postponed to next year. It is expected to reduce the burden for enterprises by more than 2.5 trillion yuan in the whole year. Secondly, the government work report said that the loan extension policy for small and medium-sized micro enterprises should be extended to the end of March next year, the loan extension for inclusive small and micro enterprises should be extended to the full extent, and the loan negotiation for other difficult enterprises should be extended. The industry believes that the epidemic has disrupted the normal production and operation order of the rubber tire industry, the government work report has given the industry enterprises “reassurance”, the implementation of various tax preferential policies, and the use of “real gold and silver” to support the resumption of production and help the enterprise development.

Future forecast:

According to the analysis of the business club, the national two sessions and active fiscal policy may directly boost the nominal GDP growth of the whole year by 3-5 percentage points, which is conducive to the better resumption of production of rubber enterprises. From the perspective of domestic and international cutting situation, the current output is very small, which is not enough to impact the market. On the contrary, the prices in some regions with tight supply are very strong. From the perspective of downstream situation, tire enterprises will gradually benefit from favorable policies, with increased start-up, and the demand is expected to increase, but it also depends on the demand pulling situation of the consumer market; in some foreign regions, regardless of the epidemic situation, the “recovery of economy” may lead to demand. In the future, it mainly depends on the consumption stimulus and the play of the favorable role of policies. In June, the production of new rubber will directly affect the trend of Tianjiao. If the production and inventory increase, Tianjiao market may continue to be under pressure. However, in the short term, if a large number of new rubber is still not cut, Tianjiao market may have a wave of short-term strength on the premise that the stimulus plays an obvious role first.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market price of propylene oxide fell on May 22, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. As of 22, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9266.67 yuan / ton, down 0.71% compared with yesterday and up 19.31% compared with April 22. On May 21, the propylene oxide commodity index was 58.09, down 0.83 points from yesterday, down 42.59% from 101.18 (2011-10-26), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.30% from 41.70, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industrial chain: as of May 21, the market price of propylene in Shandong is still rising. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th day, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th day, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. On the 11th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th day, it increased by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th day, it continued to increase by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 14th day, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th day, it still increased by 50-100 yuan / ton on weekends The upward trend remained unchanged until 21 days, with a daily upward trend of 50-100 yuan / ton. Today, the upward trend is 50 yuan / ton again. Now, the market transaction has reached 6950-7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton. On May 22, downstream polyether and propylene oxide fell, and the focus of market negotiation shifted down.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analysts of the business club, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously, and the profit space of propylene oxide has been further compressed. The terminal has strong resistance to high price raw materials, with strong wait-and-see mood, new downstream orders weakened, and inventory of propylene oxide plant increased slowly. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of propylene oxide will be consolidated and wait-and-see operation, and the specific trend needs more attention to the change of raw material price and the guidance of mainstream market news.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, affected by the weak downstream demand and the upcoming restart of large factories in East China, the domestic acetic acid market has been in a weak and stable operation recently. As of May 21, the quotations in Henan are about 2350-2450 yuan / ton; in Shandong, about 2550-2650 yuan / ton; in Hebei, about 2600-2650 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, about 2280 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu, about 2500-260 yuan / ton About 0 yuan / ton; the quotation in Zhejiang is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton; the quotation sent to South China is about 2550-2650 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 7.98% over the early May.

2、 Cause analysis

Production trends of plant capacity (10000 tons / year)

Normal production of Yankuang Guotai 110

Hualu Hengsheng 50 normal production

80% of Yangtze BP 50

Celanese 120 recovered to 70%

Jiangsu Thorpe 120 4.20 overhaul, 5.25 restart expected

Hebei Jiantao 50 5.10 maintenance 20 days

Tianjin Bohua 35 normal production

Henan Shunda 45 plan 5.23 maintenance for one week

Henan Longyu 50, 70%

Shaanxi extends maintenance for one month from May 6, 2015

Shanghai Huayi 70 started construction for 50% and planned maintenance for one month from May 23

Anhui Huayi 50, 80%

Product: at present, the domestic acetic acid market is stable and weak, and the market is gradually showing weakness. The domestic acetic acid market as a whole has been started and maintained at about 60%. The Celanese plant in Nanjing has resumed production. The 1.2 million ton / year plant in Jiangsu Thorpe is expected to restart on May 25. The market supply is expected to increase, and the market supply tension has been alleviated to some extent. However, the downstream market demand is still slow to return to the normal level. The spot transaction in the market is weak, and there is a certain bearish attitude towards the acetic acid market The intention of sub holding traders to ship goods is strong, and the actual orders decline.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the domestic methanol price continues to decline, some enterprises stop selling, the freight is high, the traders operate cautiously, at present, about 1657 yuan / ton; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and other industries are weak and stable, the cost support is acceptable, the overall operating rate of the industry has declined, the downstream demand is poor, and it is expected to be concussed in the short term; PTA unit maintenance is expected to increase, Superimposed terminal enterprises have returned to work one after another, the relationship between supply and demand has improved, and it is expected that the short-term shocks will be stronger.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of the business association, at present, the transaction atmosphere in the domestic acetic acid market is weak, and the restart of large factories in East China has a negative impact on the market mentality. Although PTA market starts at a high level, it has little impact on the acetic acid market. In addition, the demand for other products is still weak, and the shipping intention of some acetic acid traders obviously leads to a decline in actual orders. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be stable in a short time Soft.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on May 18 was 876.67 yuan / ton, and on May 21, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 863.33 yuan / ton, down 1.52%, with the current price down 27.04% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the domestic market has declined slightly. As of May 21, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Hebei is about 740 yuan / ton, that of mainstream manufacturers in Shandong is 815 yuan / ton, and that of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu is 1075 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. The start-up of formaldehyde enterprises was basically stable, the market supply was relatively sufficient, the trading atmosphere was cold, the attitude of formaldehyde manufacturers was negative, and the price fell slightly.

Industry chain: upstream methanol: some upstream enterprises in Shaanxi, Mongolia and other parts of Northwest China cut their prices to 1300-1330 yuan / ton, some of them stopped selling, the two sessions will be held soon, the freight is high, traders operate cautiously, and the methanol price will drop. Unable to support the cost of formaldehyde, the downstream terminal demand is still weak, the formaldehyde enterprise’s shipment is not good, the formaldehyde enterprise’s quotation is affected by the decline of raw materials, and the market is slightly down.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol price fell narrowly, with weak cost support and general on-site trading atmosphere. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or low consolidation in the near future was the main trend.