1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

In the first half of July, epichlorohydrin market price fluctuated, showing a downward trend as a whole. As of July 15, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9900 yuan / ton, which was 5.11% lower than that on July 1 (10433.33 yuan / ton) and 8.05% lower than that on June 15, according to the data of the bulk list of business associations. In recent years, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated periodically. On the 15th, the price remained stable. The trading atmosphere of epichlorohydrin market was light, and the pressure of shippers to ship was not reduced. As the price continued to fall to the low level, the owner’s expectation of downstream inventory and replenishment demand weakened the low export intention. However, the enthusiasm of the downstream market was insufficient and the actual transaction was limited.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 9700 yuan / ton, excellent product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-15

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 10500 yuan / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-15

Shandong tashuo Chemical Co., Ltd. 10100 yuan / ton national standard barrel, 240kg / barrel, 2020-07-14

Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. 9700 yuan / ton, excellent product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-14

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. $9200 / T national standard 99.9-2020-07-13

Shandong michuan Chemical Co., Ltd. $9800 / T, excellent product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-13

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. $9400 / T, excellent products; 99.9% Min: July 10, 2020

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. $9500 / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-08

Shandong chuangying Chemical Co., Ltd. $11000 / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-03

Jinan Yuanxiang Chemical Co., Ltd. 10800 yuan / ton national standard barrel, 240kg / barrel, 2020-07-03

Shandong Carlson Chemical Co., Ltd. 10200 yuan / ton national standard barrel, 240kg / barrel, 2020-07-02

Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. 9800 yuan / ton national standard barrel, 240kg / barrel, 2020-07-01

On July 15, the upstream propylene market in Shandong was generally stable. According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuated up and down periodically, with a relatively stable price range. Since the beginning of July, the price has been continuously reduced by 200-250 yuan / ton. From June 6 to 9, the price has been adjusted back by about 250 yuan / ton. On October 11, the price was roughly flat. Since the 12th, the price went down twice, and now it has dropped by 100-150 yuan / ton. Today, most of the prices are stable. The market transaction is between 6650 yuan / ton and the mainstream price is still around 6750 yuan / ton. The inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, crude oil prices are slightly upward, the overall downstream market operating rate is general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, the market transaction is cold, and there is still a distance from the lower limit of the recent propylene oscillation range. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will still have downward space in recent days, or will continue to decline, which has a negative impact on epichlorohydrin.

On July 15, the downstream epoxy resin was running in a weak position. Under the influence of the bad raw materials, the shippers were not stable, and they were mainly active in shipping, and the active offer was low-end, and the follow-up of terminal buying was limited.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of epichlorohydrin of the business agency, the price of propylene oxide fluctuates periodically in the near future. With the price of epichlorohydrin falling to a low level, the low price mentality of shippers has weakened. However, the downstream market is short of buying gas, and the actual order follow-up is limited. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will stabilize and wait-and-see operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA6 market weakened in the first half of July, and the interest of most brands was reduced. As of July 16, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 11433.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.28% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

PA6 upstream caprolactam this month before a change in the trend, the current overall market down. According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of caprolactam on July 6 was 10333 yuan / ton, and that on July 10 was 9933 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream average price is about 9700 yuan / ton, which is 6.73% lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month. Crude oil has strong support for pure benzene in June, while caprolactam is supported at the bottom of the market. Near the end of June, the port inventory of pure benzene reached a high level, and the pick-up speed began to slow down. As a result, inventory pressure was difficult to release, and the inventory of Shandong local refining enterprises increased, and caprolactam weakened at the end of the month. In recent years, the price of raw materials continued to decline, the cost side support became worse, and the downward trend of caprolactam was still in. In addition, sufficient supply, poor downstream demand, the overall market is weak. Caprolactam prices are expected to continue to fall in the future.

In the first half of July, PA6 market was generally affected by the negative effect of upstream caprolactam, and the market price closely followed the decline. At the beginning of the month, the highest point was 12200.00 yuan / ton. Since then, the merchants have been actively shipping and offered to reduce their positions. However, in recent years, the follow-up improvement of downstream factories’ orders is limited, mainly on bargain hunting, and the strategy is biased towards rigid demand procurement. Weak demand and inventory, business bearish aftermarket, market mentality is not strong, general trading atmosphere.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: in the first half of July, the domestic PA6 market fell, and the spot price of each brand was dominated by profit margin. The supply of caprolactam in the upstream recovered and the disk fell down, which weakened the support for the cost side of PA6. The demand of downstream slicing plants is weak, and the strategy of bargain hunting is the main strategy. The improvement of PA6 trading volume is limited, and businesses are generally short of the future market and sell profits and reduce positions. It is expected that PA6 market will continue the weak trend in the near future.

Recently, the price of dysprosium and terbium in the domestic rare earth market has fallen, the downstream purchasing is not active, and the downstream acceptance degree has declined, and the domestic heavy rare earth price has declined. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on July 14 was 345 points, unchanged with yesterday, 65.50% lower than 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 27.31% higher than 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of July 15, the price of dysprosium oxide in China’s rare earth has dropped by 25000 yuan / ton to 1845000 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy has dropped by 10000 yuan / ton to 1840000 yuan / ton, and the price of terbium oxide and metal terbium has decreased to varying degrees.

Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth prices have fallen down. In the early stage, the prices of dysprosium and terbium series have been climbing all the way. However, with the price rising to the high level within the year, the downstream acceptance degree has declined, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the procurement is not active. The downstream on-demand procurement is mainly used, and the transaction is slightly difficult, and the price of dysprosium and terbium series has declined. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan accounts for a large proportion of the annual production, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. However, the situation of collection and storage is not clear. At present, Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth. However, in the near future, the on-site inquiry has decreased and the price of heavy rare earth has fallen.

The Ministry of information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprises to apply for, and formed the “collection of supporting policies related to the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry”. The favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. At the same time, Sino US relations are somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In recent years, the supply of rare earth market is normal, but the demand is not obviously good, and the market price of medium and heavy rare earth has dropped slightly.

In the near future, heavy rare earth downstream businesses mainly purchase on demand, and take a wait-and-see attitude towards high-priced products, and there are few transactions on the floor. Analysts from the business agency predict that the market price of heavy rare earth will fall slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price rose slightly on July 15, with the average price of 3580 yuan / ton on the spot market, up 0.53% compared with the previous trading day, and decreased by 44.90% year-on-year. The main futures (2009) in the futures market rose to close at 3606, up 12 or 0.33% from the previous trading day.

Production enterprise unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit operation status

Ningbo Yisheng 220 postponed to mid July for 2-3 days

Jiaxing Petrochemical 220 stopped at night on July 12, and the restart time is to be determined

Livan polyester 70 was shut down on April 30 due to failure, and restart to be determined

Hanbang petrochemical company shut down for maintenance from May 9, 2006, and restart to be determined

Tianjin Petrochemical Company shut down for maintenance on April 17, 2004, and restart to be determined

Pengwei petrochemical company shut down for maintenance on March 9, 1990, and restart to be determined

Zhongtai Petrochemical Company 120 started feeding on July 1 and discharged on the evening of July 2. Now it is running at 95%

Among them, 1.25 million tons of which will be put into operation on June 28, 2020, will be produced on June 29, and its load will reach 90% on July 2. Another production line of 1.25 million tons was put into operation on the evening of July 11, and is now running at 85% load

Eason Hainan 200 delayed maintenance plan

Fuhai Chuang 450 was put into operation on July 9 with load reduction, which is planned to last for one week

Jialong petrochemical company shut down for maintenance on August 2, 2006, restart time to be determined

Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million T / a PTA plant was put into operation with reduced load on July 9 and maintained for one week. Jiaxing Petrochemical 2.2 million ton PTA plant was shut down at night on July 12. It is planned to overhaul for about 2 weeks. Due to failure, the restart time is still to be determined. Some units at the supply end will be overhauled or some pressure will be relieved. In addition, as the implementation rate of OPEC’s production reduction reached 100% in June, crude oil rebounded slightly, and the price of WTI’s main contract on the 14th was $40.29/barrel, up $0.19/barrel from the previous day, which supported the cost side. Downstream polyester start-up load maintained around 87%, the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was lower than 60%, which was at a low level compared with the same period last year, and the terminal market remained mainly light demand.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that under the influence of cost driven and maintenance of its own devices, PTA market is expected to rise slightly in the short term. In the future, some PTA plants still have plans to postpone equipment maintenance. In addition, with the load increase of Hengli line 5 and Zhongtai this week, the PTA excess pressure increases in the later stage, and the accumulated supply and demand range is further expanded, and there is still downward risk in the price.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 15th, spot nickel fell slightly, and is now at 107816.67 yuan / ton, down 0.14% compared with the previous day, 5.2% lower than the beginning of the year, and 1.36% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 109000 yuan, then the price was weak, closing at 108570 yuan, down 0.44%. LME3 nickel closed at US $13545, down 0.40%.

2、 Market analysis

At present, although the epidemic situation in Indonesia is relatively severe, the production progress of nipi has not been significantly affected. The logistics situation of nipi from Indonesia to China has always been normal, and the commissioning progress is slightly faster than expected. Therefore, there is a large probability of sufficient supply of nipi in Indonesia. Nickel production of stainless steel accounts for about 70% of the total consumption. At present, stainless steel enters the off-season after July. Some special steel plants are expected to start maintenance in July, which is pessimistic.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: Although the current nickel price has been in a low level range, the raw material nickel pig iron supply is sufficient, and the mainstream stainless steel manufacturers may not significantly reduce the production. It is expected that the nickel price will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

PVC continued to rise this week. According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic mainstream PVC on July 10 was 6487.5 yuan / ton, which was 3.68% higher than the beginning of the week, 3.8% higher than the beginning of the month, and 4.63% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market is full of strength and continues to rise. The active futures market led to a hot atmosphere of price rise in the spot market. This round of big rise was caused by the macro warming and fund speculation. Recently, the active stock market and the influx of funds from the real estate industry have led to a sharp rise in PVC futures, with the main contract up to 6650 yuan, which is at the high level of the year. The spot market is boosted by this, and the whole line rises. Take Tianyuan Group as an example, the price of 6350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6600 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 250 yuan. The price rise of mainstream enterprises is mainly concentrated in 150-250 yuan, with the focus moving upward and the low-end price of PVC Not much, corporate profits have been restored, the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At the end of the week, futures fell back, spot market growth slowed down, the continued rise of PVC did not bring hot market trading, procurement is still more cautious. Due to the low consumption season and the influence of plum rain season in the south, downstream procurement is mostly rigid demand, and the high price PVC has a wait-and-see attitude. However, with the continuous decline of inventory, the maintenance of some enterprises and the positive factors of futures, the trend of PVC is still strong, with the risk of callback, but it is not easy to go down sharply.

On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 10, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was around 6250-6600 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type carbide in East China is around 6500-6550 yuan / ton, that in South China is 6650-6750 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 6370-6480 yuan / ton, that in Hangzhou is 6500-6550 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 6650-6750 yuan / ton.

In terms of futures, the opening price of V2009 contract on October 10 was 6575, the highest price was 6650, the lowest price was 6510, and the closing price was 6540, down 10, up 0.15%. The trading volume was 276000 hands, an increase of 100000 hands. The position was 187000 hands, reduced by 7767 hands. PVC futures rose sharply, with the main contract hitting the top of 6650 yuan, which was the highest level in the year.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of the enterprise is over 70%, the market supply pressure is not great, and the supply of goods in some regions is tight. Most manufacturers are pre-sale orders, so there is no pressure on sales, and confidence in raising prices is enhanced. In the near future, there are not many enterprises planned to repair and repair, such as Shanxi Yushe, Inner Mongolia Junzheng (new plant area), Qinghai Yihua and other enterprises have maintenance plans. With the arrival of imported goods in the later stage, the maintenance enterprises resume production, increase the output and stabilize the supply. At present, the supply side is still good.

In terms of inventory, social inventory continued to decline. Due to the low enthusiasm of downstream purchasing in the off-season, the decline rate slowed down, and the supply of goods in South China was tight. The manufacturers reported that the shipment situation was good. There was little change in East China. The total inventory decreased to 268000 tons, which was still lower than the level in the same period last year.

In terms of demand, in the off-season consumption, the downstream did not store a large number of PVC products, but mainly purchased on demand with a small amount of replenishment. The rainy season in the South reduced the demand. Some enterprises had production reduction and production stoppage. The demand decreased to a certain extent. The downstream pipe and profile products enterprises decreased by about 10% and remained at a high level. The enthusiasm for high-end PVC prices was not high, but the demand for real estate was still high In, PVC still has a certain supporting force, but the strength is weakened.

On July 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.62/barrel, down $1.28. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 42.35 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.94 U.S. dollars. On the 9th, the European ethylene market fell, with FD northwest Europe offering 769-779 US dollars / ton, down 25 US dollars / ton; CIF northwest Europe quoted 750-758 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars / ton. The Asian ethylene market remained stable, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 795-805 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 745-755 USD / T. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 335-353 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States is mainly up in recent years. The demand of the whole ethylene market is better, and the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is relatively sufficient.

The price of blue carbon in the upstream market is low consolidation, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. But the downstream PVC price high consolidation, the rise is weak, downstream customer demand for calcium carbide weakened. In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the calcium carbide in the future market will drop slightly.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that at present, the PVC fundamentals have not changed much, the macro warming and the futures boost, the PVC spot market is rising, and the corporate profits can be repaired. However, in the off-season demand, the downstream has limited acceptance ability for high-end PVC, and the enthusiasm for pursuing rise is not high. It is expected that the trend of PVC will remain firm in the short term, with a risk of callback, but it is not easy to go down sharply.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market price was stable this week, with the average domestic price of 3680 yuan / ton as of Friday, which was flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

The price of isomeric xylene was stable on the whole this week. Affected by the lower profit margin and lower operating rate of downstream PX manufacturers, the demand for isomeric xylene slowed down. Compared with the previous period, the market price was slightly sluggish and the transaction was not active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3670 yuan / ton. Due to the uncertain outlook of crude oil supply and demand, the future market continues to pay attention to the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the meeting news of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15 to discuss a record production reduction agreement. According to the current arrangement, the production reduction agreement will last until the end of July, and then the reduction range will begin to shrink.

Upstream, crude oil, international oil prices fluctuated slightly this week. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its demand forecast for 2020, and US energy companies reduced the number of active rigs to a record low for the 10th consecutive week, supporting oil prices. But a record number of new cases in the United States has hit expectations of a rapid recovery in fuel consumption. Long space back and forth saw, overall maintain shock trend. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 1.21%, Brent futures was down 0.77%, WTI futures was down 2.28%, and Dubai futures was up 2.25%.

In terms of downstream, PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4800 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 521 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 541 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market price is about 3560 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 450 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline slightly next week. The price of ortho benzene / FOB in Korea is expected to remain stable at USD 4400 / FOB.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA inventory situation in the supply cost side. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15 to discuss the record production reduction agreement, as well as the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club, the domestic toluene market has been stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3490 yuan / ton, up 0.29% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the overall price of toluene was stable, affected by the lower demand for blended oil, the demand for toluene decreased, the market trading atmosphere was not active, and the price was slightly weak. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3400 yuan / ton. Due to the uncertain outlook of crude oil supply and demand, the future market continues to pay attention to the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the meeting news of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15 to discuss a record production reduction agreement. According to the current arrangement, the production reduction agreement will last until the end of July, and then the reduction range will begin to shrink.

Upstream, crude oil, international oil prices fluctuated slightly this week. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its demand forecast for 2020, and US energy companies reduced the number of active rigs to a record low for the 10th consecutive week, supporting oil prices. But a record number of new cases in the United States has hit expectations of a rapid recovery in fuel consumption. Long space back and forth saw, overall maintain shock trend. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 1.21%, Brent futures was down 0.77%, WTI futures was down 2.28%, and Dubai futures was up 2.25%.

In terms of TDI downstream, the market has begun to stabilize. At present, the domestic outbound quotation with bill of lading refers to RMB 10000-10300 / T, and that of Shanghai with bill of lading is around RMB 10500 / T. it is expected that the short-term TDI market will be stable. In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4800 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 521 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 541 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

In the short term, the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling wells and EIA inventory situation are considered by toluene analysts of business club chemical branch. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15 to discuss the record production reduction agreement, as well as the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic market toluene price will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of chloroform in Shandong remained stable this week, and the average price of chloroform in Shandong remained at about 2000 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 2.56% over the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong: 440000 tons / year, 70%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 90%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 70-80%

At present, the overall operation of chloroform enterprises in Shandong is stable, the market operating rate is not high, some enterprises are still mainly for their own use, and the downstream market demand is still insufficient. Due to the cost pressure, there is not much room for enterprises to reduce their prices. The market is in a dilemma between supply and demand. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 2000 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, the market situation of methanol shows regional differences. In Northwest China, some units are shut down for maintenance, and some upstream factories are reluctant to sell. In addition, with the rise of methanol futures price, manufacturers actively push up the price. However, the market inventory is high, and there is no hope of destocking in the short term. The overall transaction atmosphere of the industry is general, at present, about 1657 yuan / ton. The rise and fall of liquid chlorine market are mutual and market demand Some enterprises have accumulated a certain amount of inventory. With the parking and maintenance of some enterprises, the pressure of enterprises’ inventory is relieved. At present, the average price is about 600-800 yuan / ton.

On the other hand, the downstream R22 market of dichloromethane is good supported by the cost side, the R22 quota is insufficient, and the price remains high. Under the dominant position of the seller, R22 trend is strong, at present, about 15000-17000 yuan / T; pharmaceutical and agricultural diluents and other industries mainly purchase rigid demand, and support the chloroform market is flat.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the demand support of the downstream market of chloroform market is insufficient, the enterprises are limited by the pressure of production cost, and the price reduction space is limited. It is expected that the horizontal arrangement will be the main trend in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices soared 5.2% to 53280 yuan / ton on Monday after rising continuously on Thursday, and rose more than 2500 yuan / ton in a single day, setting a two-year high. LME copper opened slightly higher today and then rose. The price of LME copper fluctuated after reaching 6633 US dollars. As of the end of Asian market, LME copper closed at US $6589, up 2.49%. Shanghai copper’s main force rose sharply to 53520 yuan after opening today, closing at 52880 yuan, up 4.71%.

Another copper mine in Chile

Chilean trade unions announced on Friday that workers from the zaldivar copper mine under Antofagasta voted to land, with 99% of its members rejecting the collective wage agreement and deciding to strike on July 15. Antofagasta said it would seek a government led settlement and, in combination with the copper business, hoped to reach an agreement through dialogue.

On July 13, centinela, another copper mine under Antofagasta, will also hold a worker’s vote. In 2019, the mine’s concentrate output will be about 196000 tons, and the refined copper production will be about 81000 tons. The total copper production will be 277000 tons, accounting for nearly 4.8% of Chile’s copper production. If the mine strikes, the border impact on Chile’s copper supply will be relatively large.

Under the same external environment, Peru and some other South American countries have taken strict isolation measures to control the epidemic situation. As a result, the output in the first half of the year shrank significantly. However, Chile’s mine control measures were not strict. Although the production increased steadily, there were still great hidden dangers. In recent weeks, with the spread of new coronavirus in Chile, thousands of miners were infected, Miners have tightened safety regulations, tightened shift patterns and suspended construction projects, adding to concerns about the yet to be seen impact on production.

Output of Chile copper mine may decrease by 100000 tons in the second half of the year

Changes in copper production in Chile

According to the data released by the national copper Council of Chile, Chile’s copper production increased by 3.4% to 2.37 million tons from January to May this year. Compared with the sharp decline in Peru’s output, Chile’s output has increased against the trend, which shows that the Chilean government has deliberately played down the epidemic control of mines in order to protect the economy. The consequence of belittling the virus is that not only has Chile’s domestic epidemic worsened recently, but also its miners’ infection rate has been rising.

With the continuous progress of the epidemic situation, the government has to take stronger isolation measures to control the epidemic, which will cause interference to production and projects under construction. In serious cases, production will be stopped. In the second half of the year, Chile’s copper mine production may shrink. The direct or indirect interference caused by the epidemic situation may exceed 100000 metal tons.

Copper stocks rose in the previous period

Copper inventory in the previous period

As shown in the above figure, recently, the inventory of copper in the previous period has rebounded slightly. As of July 10, the copper inventory of the previous period continued to rise to a one month high, and the weekly inventory increased by more than 20% to 137336 tons.

LME inventory hits a new low in four months

LME copper inventory

As shown in the chart above, LME copper inventories have been falling in recent days. The London Metal Exchange (LME) released data on Friday to 181075 tons, which is about a four month low.

The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased by 3.01% in June

In June, the operating rate of refined copper rod-making enterprises was 78.66%, with a month on month decrease of 1.70 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.01 percentage points. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises is 80.10%, that of medium-sized enterprises is 47.27%, and that of small enterprises is 12.00%. The operating rate in June still showed a small growth, mainly due to the continuous good power cable orders, and the operating rate of cable enterprises in June was still at a high level above 100.

However, in July, the backlog of orders in the early stage was basically completed, and the growth of new orders in the off-season effect was not as good as that in the earlier period. The high copper price also inhibited the demand for terminal procurement, and enterprises felt more obvious about the weakening of orders. In addition, many enterprises mentioned that the impact of scrap copper rod on the order of refined copper rod is obvious, especially in some refined copper rod factories in North China, and even the inventory of finished products is overstocked. Affected by the weakening of orders, copper rod processing costs also fell.

In view of the above situation, the copper analysts of the nonferrous metals branch of the business association believe that: the current demand for copper downstream is fair, and the hidden inventory is not much, so the possibility of large accumulation of future stocks is small. Moreover, the current situation of Chile’s epidemic situation is still grim, there is uncertainty in the future copper supply, and it will take some time for the complete liberalization of scrap copper import. Therefore, the supply side is still tight. In addition, the Federal Reserve has adopted extremely loose monetary policy, so it is expected that copper prices will remain high.