1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market of epichlorohydrin has been fluctuating upward in the near future, and it was stable on May 20. As of May 20, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of May 19, and increased by 12.24% compared with April 20. In recent years, the price of raw material propylene has been rising continuously, the cost support has been raised, and the spot shortage has been double promoted. The manufacturer’s intention of low output is not strong, but the downstream is affected by the news of Jiangsu Haixing plant, and the enthusiasm for high price raw material procurement is not high. The quotation of epichlorohydrin enterprises on the 20th was mainly stable, so we should be careful to wait and see. The market quotation of epichlorohydrin on the 20th was 10600-11000 yuan / ton.

The epichlorohydrin commodity index on May 20 was 77.68, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.90% from 133.71 (2019-10-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.81% from 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industrial chain: on May 20, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the price went up by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th, the price went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th, some enterprises went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 11th, they went up by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton continuously. On the 14th, they went up by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th, they went up by 50-100 yuan / ton continuously. On the weekends Until the 20th, the upward trend has remained unchanged. The daily upward trend is 50-100 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction has reached 6900-7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. On May 20, the downstream epoxy resin, under the pressure of cost, the firm price offer mainly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on May 20, 2020, there are 14 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical sector, among which the top three commodities are mixed xylene (1.98%), organosilicon DMC (1.81%) and ethylene (1.75%). There are 7 kinds of commodities with a decline in the aspect ratio, and the top 3 products are polysilicon (- 4.49%), formaldehyde (37%) (- 1.52%) and liquid ammonia (- 1.07%). The average price of this day is 0.04%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, it is expected that the market of epichlorohydrin will be stagnant in the short term, and the specific trend needs more attention to the market news guidance.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spandex market maintained a slight decline in May. As of May 20, the average price of 40d specification was 32000 yuan / ton, down 1.84% from the beginning of the month, down 7.78% year on year

Mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 36000-37000 34000-35000 28500-29500

Shandong 37000-38000 34500-35500 29000-29500

Fujian 37000-38000 34500-35500 29500-33000

Jiangsu 36000-38000 34000-35000 29500-30000

At present, the spandex market is flexible, the supply of goods is stable, and the digestion of inventory is the main. The support function of cost end is general, the actual receiving sentiment of downstream terminal market is not high, and the overall market outlook atmosphere is relatively strong. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang area, the reference for 20d spandex mainstream negotiation is 36000-37000 yuan / ton; the reference for 30d spandex mainstream negotiation is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; the reference for 40d spandex mainstream negotiation is 28500-29500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction details are discussed.

Summary of production and marketing trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name address capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

Shanghai BASF Shanghai 11 listening device under maintenance

There is no restart plan for the parking of Shanxi 3D Hongdong 5

Jiaxing Xiaoxing Zhejiang Jiaxing 12 plant shutdown maintenance

Hangzhou Sanlong, Zhejiang, Hangzhou 6 line, stable operation

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical Ningxia Yinchuan 9.2 unit load is not high

Henan Nenghua Hebi 6 parking Center

The load of Xinjiang MEK Xinjiang Korla 5 unit is not high

Unit load of 4.6, Changji, Xinjiang is not high

The upstream PTMEG market continued to operate in a weak situation. The factory started to decline further, and the market offer was temporarily stable. According to the single negotiation, the actual single was still kept and the profit was transferred. The mainstream price of 1800 molecular weight goods was 14000-15000 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation was 13800-14500 yuan / ton. The pure MDI market is on the up side, the factory continues to hold up the market, and the low price offer is reduced, but the downstream terminal demand transmission is slow, just needs to replenish the position properly, and the delivery and investment progress is slow, the quotation in South China is 13200-13500 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrel, and the quotation in East China is 13300-13500 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrel.

At present, the textile market is still in the off-season as a whole, and the intention of receiving orders in the terminal market is cautious. The start-up level of enterprises in the lower reaches of Xiaoshao area in Zhejiang Province is low, and the start-up level of the round machine and wrapped yarn market remains 30-60%. The terminal demand in Zhuji District of Yiwu is average, and the starting level of yarn wrapping market is 5-70%. In Wujiang area of Jiangsu Province, the terminal starts are common, and the yarn wrapping market starts at a level of 5-60%. Orders in Jiangyin region remained low, and the starting level of round machine and yarn market remained at about 30%.

Business analysts believe that spandex market is currently abundant in spot supply, with weak cost and demand, and the overall market outlook atmosphere is strong. It is expected that in the short term, spandex prices will be mainly weak.

According to the statistics of business agency, as of May 20, Jiangsu nylon filament DTY reported 15333 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 166 yuan / ton, or 1.10%, or 25.57% year-on-year; nylon POY price reported 12720 yuan / ton, or 100 yuan / ton, or 0.79%, or 28.94% year-on-year; nylon FDY price reported 16250 yuan / ton, or 500 yuan / ton, or 3.17%, or 26.14% year-on-year.

Product may 13 May 20 up and down unit

Cyclohexanone 5680 5830 150 yuan / ton

Caprolactam 9900 10050 150 yuan / ton

PA6 (medium viscosity: 2.75-2.85) 11367 11533 166 yuan / ton

Nylon FDY (40d / 12F) 15750 16250 500 yuan / ton

Nylon DTY (70D / 24F) 15167 15333 166 yuan / ton

Nylon POY (86d / 24F) 12520 12720 100 yuan / ton

 
The multinational economy has gradually recovered and crude oil prices have continued to rise. As of May 19, WTI crude oil rose 61.58%. As of May 20, cyclohexanone rose 150 yuan / ton, or 2.64%, caprolactam rose 150 yuan / ton, or 1.52%, and PA6 rose 166 yuan / ton, or 1.46%, compared with last Wednesday. Although the price of crude oil continued to rise, the spot supply of cyclohexanone returned, the market price was low and the quotation was stable for the time being. The restart of some caprolactam units was delayed, while the price of raw materials was increased, and the market offer was pushed up by 10100-10300 yuan / ton for acceptance. Due to the supply of raw materials, PA6 prices continued to rise, but the actual transaction did not improve significantly.

The price of raw materials is generally increased, and the price of nylon filament manufacturers is increased by 200-500 yuan / ton. It can be seen from the above figure that the trend of nylon filament is basically the same as that of cyclohexanone at the raw material end, while cyclohexanone is dominated by crude oil, and the demand end is not the main factor for pricing. The demand in the downstream did not improve greatly. The rise of nylon showed a ladder like pattern with low price rise frequency. The price was adjusted once a week or two weeks, and the overall price rose with the raw materials.

Analysts of the business club believe that in the near future, the support of the raw material end is strong, the recovery plan of the multinational economy makes the crude oil rise steadily, which supports the recovery of chemical products, and the supply of caprolactam is tight in the short term, which is expected to slow the rise of nylon filament.

Market situation: after the market rose, the market weakened rapidly. The market in East China dropped to 6450 yuan / ton. After the market rose, it fell rapidly. For a while, the shipment volume in North China was controlled. After the arrival of the port, the port stock was less than 15000 tons. The phenol market rose again this week. However, the downstream demand is not optimistic. In addition, the current arrival volume at the end of May is relatively sufficient, and the phenol Market is weak. According to the monitoring of the business association, the listing price of petrochemical manufacturers has remained stable at 6900-7000 yuan / ton. The market offer in East China is 6650-6700 yuan / ton, that in South China is 6850 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong and surrounding Yanshan is 6900 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comment: first of all, in the near future, the import source is sufficient, and the arrival volume is increasing. It is reported that 3000 tons of phenol from Singapore respectively arrived at Hengyang warehouse in late May, and another 2000 tons arrived at Hengyang and Huaxi warehouse before the end of the month. It is expected that there will still be arrival at Hong Kong in early June, and the supply of imported goods will increase the domestic market.

Secondly, raw materials continue to rise, with strong cost support. First of all, the pure benzene market. The price of imported pure benzene in Asia continued to rise, forming a good support for the domestic market. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec rose to 3250 yuan / ton, and the atmosphere of domestic pure benzene negotiation was relatively stable. From the overall perspective of May, the pure benzene showed a slight upward trend.

Another important raw material propylene market, the propylene market has maintained a unilateral upward trend since May 1st, and continued to rise steadily. Up to now, the mainstream transactions in the propylene market are more than 6900 yuan / ton, with a cumulative upward trend of 16.95% this month. The wide plant operating rate in the downstream propylene market is relatively high, the demand for propylene is stable and upward, and the propylene shipment is smooth. Currently, the propylene inventory is still low, short-term Propylene will still maintain a steady upward trend.

Thirdly, the downstream market is running at a high level, with a positive attitude. The downstream market is firm. One of the important downstream markets, bisphenol a market, is affected by the upstream of downstream PC. It is hard to find the low price in each major market. The “helmet” policy stimulates the upstream of PC market. However, there is no obvious impact on the market of bisphenol A, but most traders hold the attitude of low price. In terms of bisphenol a plant, Sinopec Mitsubishi plant will restart after shutdown, and other major mainstream markets will resume The factory will not offer more downstream devices or long customers. At present, the quotation of bisphenol a market in East China is 9700 yuan / ton, the quotation of bisphenol a market in North China is 9800 yuan / ton, and the quotation of bisphenol a market in Huangshan is 9800 yuan / ton. The downstream resin factory is under normal operation, and the quotation of resin is slightly improved.

Future market forecast: in this week’s opening phenol Market, under the favorable situation of tight supply, the cargo holders actively pushed up the market, and then from the recent transaction situation, the downstream has obvious conflict with high price phenol, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market volume is not optimistic. The business agency expects the phenol Market to run steadily in the short term, and expects the reference offer of the market in East China to be 6700 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency: after the festival, the zinc market continued to pick up and rise, but the rise of zinc price slowed down significantly, and the zinc price rose slightly. As of May 19, the spot price of zinc was 17236.67 yuan / ton, up 3.54% from 16646.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Although zinc still performed strongly in May, the overall upward trend slowed down.

2、 Market trend analysis

Zinc stock in LME Market

Product inventory increase / decrease time

Zinc 98375-250 May 19

Zinc 98625-350 May 18

Zinc 98975-50 May 15

Zinc 99025-75 May 14

Zinc 99100 – 375 May 13

Zinc 99475-650 May 12

Zinc 100125-50 May 11

Zinc 100175-250 May 7

Zinc 100425-250 May 6

Zinc 100675 – 175 May 5

Zinc 100850 0 may 4

Zinc 100850 3425 May 1

It can be seen from the table that in May, the stock of zinc ingots in LME market fell, the stock of international zinc market decreased, the supply of zinc market was stable, the demand of international zinc market rose slowly, the price of international zinc rose in shock, and the international zinc market recovered, which was good for the domestic zinc market.

Zinc stock in Shanghai market in May

Product inventory increase / decrease time

Zinc 53361-477 May 19

Zinc 53838-754 May 18

Zinc 54592-952 May 15

Zinc 55544 629 May 14

Zinc 54915-28 May 13

Zinc 54943 1554 May 12

Zinc 53389 – 177 May 11

Zinc 53566 604 May 8

Zinc 52962-1759 May 7

Zinc 54721-1584 May 6

It can be seen from the table that the stock of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market decreased after the festival, but the decline of futures stock slowed down significantly, and the stock of domestic zinc market increased, the supply of domestic zinc market was sufficient, and the pressure of supply and demand was relieved. Overall, the domestic zinc market has weakened, and the recovery of zinc market has slowed down.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, thinks that after May Festival, the stock of zinc market in the international market slowly decreased, and the import of zinc market was affected slightly, which is good for the domestic zinc market. In the domestic zinc market, domestic infrastructure projects are still working, and the demand for zinc ingots is increasing, but the price of zinc is rising sharply, the pressure on downstream procurement is increasing, the enthusiasm of downstream customers’ procurement is weakening, and the inventory of zinc market is slowing down; in May, the processing fee of zinc concentrate continues to fall, the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start work is declining, and the supply of zinc market is declining. Generally speaking, the rising momentum of zinc market in the future is sufficient, and the main trend of zinc price in the future is still rising, but the rising of zinc price in the future may slow down, and it is expected that zinc price in the future will fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, on May 19, according to the average comprehensive quotation of sample enterprises, at present, the mainstream reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and the reference price of bulk water is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of May, the overall trend of domestic n-propanol market has been relatively stable. The domestic n-propanol barrel price reference in Shandong Province is around 10000-10600 yuan / ton, and the individual high-end price reference is 10800 yuan / ton. With the influence of last week’s slight recovery of isopropanol, this week’s isopropanol manufacturers adjusted the ex factory quotation of isopropanol timely according to their own inventory and downstream demand and other factors, with the majority of the increase, with a range of 200-300 yuan / ton. The market mainstream quotation reference is 10200-10800 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotation is 11000-11500 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 19th, the ex factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging of Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. is 11000 yuan / ton; the price is 500 yuan / ton higher than that of last week; the ex factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging of Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 yuan / ton; the price is the same as that of a week ago; the ex factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging of Jinan angxin Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10600 yuan / ton, the price is the same as that of a week ago. Jinan Pratt & Whitney Chemical Co., Ltd.’s ex factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging is 10000 yuan / ton, which is down 500 yuan / ton compared with that a week ago; Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd.’s ex factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging is 10000 yuan / ton, which is the same as that a week ago.

Industry chain: on the 18th of this week, the market price of propylene in Shandong still rose. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the price went up by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th, the price went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th, some enterprises went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 11th, they went up by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton continuously. On the 14th, they went up by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th, they went up by 50-100 yuan / ton continuously. On the weekends The upward trend remained unchanged until 18th, and now the market transaction has reached between 6800-6950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6800 yuan / ton. Influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil price rose significantly at the end of last week, and now the crude oil is still rising, but the trend is slowing down. Influenced by the international events on August 8, the crude oil rose significantly again, and slightly declined on November 11. In the later stage, the crude oil price increased slightly continuously, and rose significantly on July 15, which has a certain positive impact on propylene. On the other hand, the propylene inventory is low, the downstream operating rate is at a high level, the goods are slightly in short supply, and the shipment is relatively smooth. Although the downstream is under pressure due to the continuous rise for several days, the downstream is also up, so it is expected that the propylene price will continue to rise in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency: according to the prediction of the business agency: as a solvent, the application of n-propanol in the domestic market is relatively fixed, and the downstream demand is relatively stable, so it is expected that the follow-up market is mainly stable.

On May 19, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was eighty-seven point three two , up from yesterday Five point eight Point, the highest point in the cycle two hundred and sixteen point nine eight Point (2017-12-24) decreased 59.76% , compared with the lowest point on August 3, 2016 seventy-one point seven four It’s up 21.72% 。 (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data monitoring of the business agency: since May, terminal demand has continued to be low, and the price of hydrogen peroxide continues to be weak. This week, with the support of terminal purchase demand, the price of hydrogen peroxide ushered in a turning point, and the price has stopped falling and rising. As of May 19, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide is 803 yuan / ton, rising one day 7.11% , the price is higher than the beginning of the month 0.84% 。

market analysis

Products: after the May Day holiday, due to the decrease in the export of downstream products such as bleaching board, the demand for hydrogen peroxide was weak, and the price continued to fall, with the price falling by about 5 points. The price of terminal caprolactam products continued to rise, with the price rising nearly 15 points. Driven by the sharp rise of caprolactam, the amount of hydrogen peroxide purchased by manufacturers gradually increased. This week, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a rising market. The main quotation of domestic hydrogen peroxide is 760-800 yuan / ton, with the price rising by 50-100 yuan / ton.

As of May 19, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong: Luxi Chemical 27.5% The price of hydrogen peroxide is 760 yuan / ton, 60 yuan / ton higher than last week;

Hebei Province: Zhengyuan fertilizer industry 27.5% The price of hydrogen peroxide is 800 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than last week;

Anhui Province: Quansheng, Anhui Province 27.5% The price of hydrogen peroxide is 850 yuan / ton, the same as last week;

Hunan Province: Shuangyang, Hunan Province 27.5% The price of hydrogen peroxide is 900 yuan / ton, the same as last week;

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% The price of hydrogen peroxide is 1000 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton higher than last week.

Industry chain: after May 1st, the price of terminal caprolactam rose all the way because of the rising price of raw material pure benzene. Driven by the rising situation, the spot supply was tight. Some enterprises restarted the device, increased the purchase demand for hydrogen peroxide, which was boosted, and the market was getting better. Due to the depression of paper printing industry, the increase was limited.

Future prospects

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business club, believes that: the start-up rate of terminal caprolactam manufacturers increases, the later supply keeps up, and the price will decline. In the short term, it will support the hydrogen peroxide Market, and in the long term, the momentum of hydrogen peroxide growth is still insufficient.

Market price: phenol and acetone are rising again, epoxy resin is rising again and PC is boosted slightly by helmet policy, which makes bisphenol a market intend to rise again. It’s hard to find a low price supply this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the offer in the East China market is stable at 9700-9750 yuan / ton, and the offer in the North China market is maintained at over 9700 yuan / ton. After last week’s stop, the market fell back. This week, the market intends to push up again. This week, the increase is 50 yuan / ton, although the increase is limited, the enthusiasm of traders for shipment is general. Although there is a general atmosphere of inventory purchase in the downstream, the source of low-cost goods in the market is hard to find, Hold goods merchant mentality to be good.

Analysis and comment: Products: this week’s opening of bisphenol a market negotiation atmosphere is good, traders have a positive attitude, and it’s hard to find in the low-cost offer site; Sinopec Mitsubishi plant is restored and restarted, Lihua yiweiyuan starts 80%, offers maintain 10000 yuan / ton, Changchun starts 80%, offers maintain 9800 yuan / ton, Sinopec Mitsui full load operation, offers 9900 yuan / ton has no export temporarily.

Industry chain: phenol Market and acetone market keep high, which support the price and cost of BPA. First of all, in terms of phenol, after the May Day holiday, the port unloading difficulties in phenol Market and the favorable news on the supply side such as device maintenance were released. In East China, the price rose to 7000 yuan / ton, up 10% in the week after the holiday (as of May 10). After the sharp rise, the market demand side resistance quickly weakened, and in East China, the price fell to 6450 yuan / ton. However, in the middle of May, the import source was supplemented, but the overall phenol supply was still available There is no pressure. The phenol market rose again this week. Currently, the listing price of petrochemical manufacturers remains stable at 6900-7000 yuan / ton. The market in East China was quoted at 6650-6700 yuan / ton. This week, the market opened up 150-300 yuan / ton, the average increase in the national market 2.61% 。

Another important raw material acetone market, since the middle of May, the acetone market has maintained a high level of operation. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, up to now, the price of acetone offered by mainstream factories in East China is 8000-8400 yuan / ton, that of mainstream factories in North China is 8100 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong factories is 8400 yuan / ton. Currently, the price of mainstream markets is 8000-8150 yuan/ Tons, the price of 8400-8500 yuan / ton in surrounding areas of Yanshan and Shandong. Active imports have successively arrived in Hong Kong to ease the market supply tension. The downstream has obvious resistance to high prices, and the acetone market has a narrow downward trend. However, the current high price of acetone market in the past three years still forms a cost support for the bisphenol market.

In the downstream market, due to the influence of helmet policy, the price of mainstream factories increased by 200-600 yuan / ton as the raw material of helmet front baffle. Some traders are reluctant to sell. The PC market will undoubtedly usher in a wave of small peak development. In the short term, the price of PC as the raw material of helmet production is expected to maintain the recent rising trend. Helmet Technology The content is low, the service life is long, and the sharp rise trend is difficult to appear. In the long run, there is still a weak expectation in the domestic PC market. Another important downstream is the high-level finishing of epoxy resin. At present, the liquid epoxy resin is 19000-20000 yuan / ton. This week, the mainstream large-scale factory raised the offer by 500 yuan / ton again, and the device is in stable operation.

Industry: on May 19, the chemical industry index was 642, up 2 points from yesterday, 21 points from May 1, 621, and 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020 7.36% 。 (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now). The chemical industry has been steadily rising, showing a trend of up, down and less, and the market mentality has been boosted.

Aftermarket forecast: the raw materials are strongly supported, the downstream market is gradually developing well, and the whole chemical industry market is showing a trend of more growth and less decline. The market mentality is extremely large, and the carrier has full information about the bisphenol a market in the later stage. It is expected that the bisphenol a market in East China will remain at 9700-9900 yuan / ton.

Commodity index: on May 17, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.13, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 18.67% lower than the highest point of 107.13 on May 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price: according to the monitoring data of the business agency (100ppi. Com), the polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million) price was slightly reduced in the first half of May. On May 1, 2020, the market mainstream price was about 14820 yuan / ton, on May 15, the market mainstream price was about 14420 yuan / ton, and the price was reduced by 3.38%.

Industrial chain:

Upstream: from January to March 2020, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market continued to decrease. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was lowered many times during the period. By the end of last ten days, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a concussion of about 20%; in February, it had fallen to 8850 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1750-1800 yuan / ton, with a drop of about 17%; in March, acrylonitrile continued to be lowered, with a range of 1000 yuan / ton. In April, the price of acrylonitrile fell first and then stabilized. On the first day, the quotation was 7450 yuan / ton, with a decrease of over 17.9% and 1400 yuan / ton in the first ten days. On the 14th, it rose 250 yuan / ton and was 6650 yuan / ton, with a total of 250 yuan / ton falling later and 6350 yuan / ton stabilizing. In the last ten days, the quotation was stable. In May, acrylonitrile started to rebound, with a quotation of 7150 yuan / ton as of May 15, and a total rebound of 800 yuan / ton in half a month. Downstream: at present, the downstream water treatment engineering construction enterprises are difficult to survive, with poor demand, and the polyacrylamide market is average.

Manufacturer: the manufacturer’s production is normal, the current downstream demand is still not very good, but the cost of raw materials has increased. At present, the main specifications of polyacrylamide market in Henan Province are as follows: cation: molecular weight 12 million, quotation 1430-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million, quotation 8000-9000 yuan / ton, quotation 8800-9500 yuan / ton, quotation 9400-10000 yuan / ton, quotation 9800-10500 yuan / ton, quotation 18 million yuan / ton, quotation 8800-9500 yuan / ton, quotation 14 million yuan / ton, quotation 16 million yuan / ton Price: 10400-11000 yuan / ton; molecular weight: 18-20 million yuan / ton; price: 12000-12500 yuan / ton; price: 12000-13000 yuan / ton.

Industry: during the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work, and the logistics returned to normal in March, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the raw material cost was partially reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in the high inventory of the manufacturer. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery charge, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the factory price of polyacrylamide changed little, and there was a lot of inventory.

Aftermarket forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile rebounded 800 yuan / ton this month, the demand for polyacrylamide still needs to be recovered in time and day, the high-speed recovery of charges, the manufacturer’s inventory is large, the possibility of price rise in the short term is small, it does not exclude that the enterprises with high inventory will reduce the quoted consumption inventory, the overall market is relatively strong, and the aftermarket depends on the downstream demand.

Market price: since the middle of May, the acetone market has maintained a high level of operation. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, up to now, the offer of acetone for mainstream factories in East China is 8000 yuan / ton, 8100 yuan / ton for mainstream factories in North China and 8400 yuan / ton for factories in Shandong. The current offer of mainstream markets: 8300-8400 yuan / ton for mainstream factories in East China, surrounding areas of Yanshan and Shandong offers 8400-8500 yuan / ton. Looking back on history, on February 10, 2017, the market price of acetone in East China was about 8200-8300 yuan / ton, the market price of acetone around Yanshan was about 8300-8350 yuan / ton, and the negotiation price in South China was about 8300-8400 yuan / ton.

Trend of ex factory prices in East China in 2017-2020

National market price trend in recent three months

First, the port supply is tight, and the acetone market keeps pushing up. Last week, the port inventory went down to 7000 tons, and the imported goods were unable to be unloaded due to the congestion of arrival at the port. The supply of acetone for imported goods was once tight. In addition, the Tianjin acetone plant in Zhongsha was shut down for maintenance for two months, and 70% of Yangzhou Shiyou plant was in operation, with the market average operating rate of less than 80%, while the terminal rose rapidly. With the support of the mentality of the cargo supplier, the port reported a high price boldly, and those with a small amount of inventory were reluctant to sell, market reported The offer is firm and strong, and the supply of low-cost goods is hard to find. The market has risen to more than 8000 yuan, and the offer in East China has retreated to 8400 yuan / ton.

Second, the raw material market keeps rising, with strong cost support. In terms of pure benzene, the listing price of the manufacturers is 150 yuan / ton. In terms of market, the listing price of pure benzene is 3100-3550 yuan / ton on May 9, and 3100-3600 yuan / ton on Sunday (May 17), an increase of 1.22%. In terms of propylene, the domestic market price of propylene (Shandong) rose unilaterally, with the initial weekly price of 6332 yuan / ton and the weekend price of 6657 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 5.13%.

Third, the differentiation of terminal demand products is obvious. The start-up of bisphenol A enterprises was stable, with the overall start-up of 60-70%. Sinopec Mitsubishi 180000 T / a plant was shut down on the 5th, and keschuang 410000 T / a plant was shut down last week; the start-up of isopropanol plant remained high, and the isopropanol plant experienced a second rise due to the upward impact of raw acetone, and the offer again exceeded 10000 yuan. MMA rose significantly, and overall good trading just needed to buy high priced acetone market. However, MIBK market has been greatly impacted. In the face of high price acetone market, enterprises have reduced their start-up and even stopped production. By the end of last week, the start-up rate of MIBK plant has declined significantly, and there are few start-up enterprises.

Future market forecast: the port will unload at the weekend, and the port inventory will be replenished appropriately. At present, the port inventory is over 10000 tons, and the shipping willingness of high-level cargo holders is enhanced. There is no shortage of low-cost acetone offers in Jiangsu and Ningbo, with a slight downward offer of 8250-8350 yuan / ton. However, Sinopec in North China raised its offer by 100 yuan / ton. The local market is strongly supported, and the market offer remains high at 8400-8500 yuan / ton , the offer of Shandong area is kept at 8400 yuan / ton in line with the listing of lihuayi Weiyuan. It is predicted by the business agency that the current acetone market has limited high-level downstream follow-up, and there are still imported goods coming to Hong Kong in the near future. It is expected that the acetone market in East China will still maintain a slight callback market above 8000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the market in East China will offer 8150-8250 yuan / ton.