1、 Price trend
PVC continued to rise this week. According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic mainstream PVC on July 10 was 6487.5 yuan / ton, which was 3.68% higher than the beginning of the week, 3.8% higher than the beginning of the month, and 4.63% lower than that of the same period last year.
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2、 Market analysis
This week, the PVC market is full of strength and continues to rise. The active futures market led to a hot atmosphere of price rise in the spot market. This round of big rise was caused by the macro warming and fund speculation. Recently, the active stock market and the influx of funds from the real estate industry have led to a sharp rise in PVC futures, with the main contract up to 6650 yuan, which is at the high level of the year. The spot market is boosted by this, and the whole line rises. Take Tianyuan Group as an example, the price of 6350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6600 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 250 yuan. The price rise of mainstream enterprises is mainly concentrated in 150-250 yuan, with the focus moving upward and the low-end price of PVC Not much, corporate profits have been restored, the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At the end of the week, futures fell back, spot market growth slowed down, the continued rise of PVC did not bring hot market trading, procurement is still more cautious. Due to the low consumption season and the influence of plum rain season in the south, downstream procurement is mostly rigid demand, and the high price PVC has a wait-and-see attitude. However, with the continuous decline of inventory, the maintenance of some enterprises and the positive factors of futures, the trend of PVC is still strong, with the risk of callback, but it is not easy to go down sharply.
On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 10, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was around 6250-6600 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type carbide in East China is around 6500-6550 yuan / ton, that in South China is 6650-6750 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 6370-6480 yuan / ton, that in Hangzhou is 6500-6550 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 6650-6750 yuan / ton.
In terms of futures, the opening price of V2009 contract on October 10 was 6575, the highest price was 6650, the lowest price was 6510, and the closing price was 6540, down 10, up 0.15%. The trading volume was 276000 hands, an increase of 100000 hands. The position was 187000 hands, reduced by 7767 hands. PVC futures rose sharply, with the main contract hitting the top of 6650 yuan, which was the highest level in the year.
In terms of supply, the operating rate of the enterprise is over 70%, the market supply pressure is not great, and the supply of goods in some regions is tight. Most manufacturers are pre-sale orders, so there is no pressure on sales, and confidence in raising prices is enhanced. In the near future, there are not many enterprises planned to repair and repair, such as Shanxi Yushe, Inner Mongolia Junzheng (new plant area), Qinghai Yihua and other enterprises have maintenance plans. With the arrival of imported goods in the later stage, the maintenance enterprises resume production, increase the output and stabilize the supply. At present, the supply side is still good.
In terms of inventory, social inventory continued to decline. Due to the low enthusiasm of downstream purchasing in the off-season, the decline rate slowed down, and the supply of goods in South China was tight. The manufacturers reported that the shipment situation was good. There was little change in East China. The total inventory decreased to 268000 tons, which was still lower than the level in the same period last year.
In terms of demand, in the off-season consumption, the downstream did not store a large number of PVC products, but mainly purchased on demand with a small amount of replenishment. The rainy season in the South reduced the demand. Some enterprises had production reduction and production stoppage. The demand decreased to a certain extent. The downstream pipe and profile products enterprises decreased by about 10% and remained at a high level. The enthusiasm for high-end PVC prices was not high, but the demand for real estate was still high In, PVC still has a certain supporting force, but the strength is weakened.
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On July 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.62/barrel, down $1.28. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 42.35 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.94 U.S. dollars. On the 9th, the European ethylene market fell, with FD northwest Europe offering 769-779 US dollars / ton, down 25 US dollars / ton; CIF northwest Europe quoted 750-758 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars / ton. The Asian ethylene market remained stable, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 795-805 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 745-755 USD / T. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 335-353 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States is mainly up in recent years. The demand of the whole ethylene market is better, and the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is relatively sufficient.
The price of blue carbon in the upstream market is low consolidation, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. But the downstream PVC price high consolidation, the rise is weak, downstream customer demand for calcium carbide weakened. In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the calcium carbide in the future market will drop slightly.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of the business club believe that at present, the PVC fundamentals have not changed much, the macro warming and the futures boost, the PVC spot market is rising, and the corporate profits can be repaired. However, in the off-season demand, the downstream has limited acceptance ability for high-end PVC, and the enthusiasm for pursuing rise is not high. It is expected that the trend of PVC will remain firm in the short term, with a risk of callback, but it is not easy to go down sharply.
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