1、 Market Core Overview
| Melamine |
According to data from Shengyi Society, as of April 7, 2026, the benchmark price of melamine was 9650.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.39% compared to early April (9425.00 yuan/ton). This week, the price maintained a high horizontal trend and a stable range, with prices remaining unchanged for several consecutive days. The market has entered a high-level game stage after the decline of upward momentum.
From the perspective of price performance during the year, the current price has reached a historical high of nearly a year, with an increase of over 79.9% compared to the low point of 5375 yuan/ton, and a median value of 7512.5 yuan/ton. The current price is at an absolute high level, with a premium of over 28.4% compared to the median value. The market’s “1-year super rise” warning continues to be in effect.
2、 Market Analysis of Business Society Spot Communication System
（1） Location feature analysis
According to the spot trading rules of Business Society, price positions are divided into 5 levels: 1 point for high position, 2 points for medium high position, 3 points for medium high position, 4 points for medium low position, and 5 points for low position.
10 days/20 days/30 days/60 days/90 days/year Position: All are high
10/20/30 day cycle position score total: 1+1+1=3 points, far below the buying threshold (>9 points). Core conclusion: The current price is at an absolute high throughout the cycle, with no buying opportunities, and the risk of chasing high prices is extremely high.
（2） Trend feature analysis
The rule of the Business Society spot moving average: Short term moving average above the long term moving average=upward trend, winding=oscillatory trend, below=downward trend.
Price line (yellow): Continuously running above the 10 day (red), 20 day (green), 30 day (green), and 60 day (purple) moving averages, with a bullish structure not broken
Moving average slope: The short-term moving average (10/20) slopes flat, narrowing the gap between prices and the moving average, and significantly weakening the momentum of unilateral upward movement
Core conclusion: The trend is still bullish, but it has entered the end of the uptrend, with prominent high-level oscillation characteristics and insufficient sustainability of the uptrend.
（3） System buying opportunity determination
According to the dual conditions for buying on Spot Connect:
1. 10/20/30 day position score total>9 points: Currently only 3 points, not met
2. The moving average shows a winding or upward trend: the current trend is upward, meeting the requirements
Final judgment: There is no buying opportunity, and the current position is only suitable for holding and waiting for an increase. It is strictly prohibited to chase high prices and be alert to the risk of falling back from high positions.
3、 Market core driving factors
1. Supply side: The current operating rate of the melamine industry remains at a high level of 68% -70%, but there are sufficient pending orders from enterprises in the early stage, and spot supply is tight. Enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, which is the core support for maintaining high prices.
2. Demand side: The operating rate of downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings is less than 50%, and there is a strong resistance to the current high price of 9650 yuan/ton. Purchasing is mainly for essential needs, and new orders are slowing down, making it difficult for high prices to continue to be transmitted, which is the core pressure restricting further price increases.
3. Cost side: The price of raw material urea remains fluctuating at a high level, but there is insufficient upward momentum, which weakens the marginal cost support for melamine and cannot provide additional impetus for further price increases. As of April 7th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1857.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the beginning of this month (1865.00 yuan/ton).
4. Export side: There is still some support for export orders, but the international market’s acceptance of high prices has decreased, and the export volume has fallen month on month, weakening the driving effect on domestic prices.
4、 Future trend prediction (conclusion from the Business Society Spot Communication system)
Short term (1-2 weeks, mid to late April): Price range: 9500-9800 yuan/ton, supported by pending orders from enterprises, and supported by downstream essential procurement, making it difficult for prices to drop significantly; But downstream high prices resist and transactions slow down, which cannot support further price increases, and the market enters a high-level sideways game. Full cycle high+bullish trend blunted, mainly oscillating, with no opportunity to chase the rise.
Mid term (3-4 weeks, early May): Enterprises’ pending orders are gradually being digested, new orders are not being followed up enough, downstream production continues to decrease, high prices are being resisted, procurement demand is further shrinking, raw material urea prices are weakening, cost support is ineffective, prices have fallen below the 10 day moving average, and the bullish structure is breaking. If the above signals are triggered, prices are likely to fall to the range of 9200-9500 yuan/ton, and a high-level downward trend is established.
Long term (1-2 months): The current price has been at an absolute high for nearly a year, far exceeding the industry average cost and reasonable profit level. With the recovery of supply and weak demand, the price will gradually return to the median value (around 7500 yuan/ton), and the long-term downward trend is the main trend.
In summary, although the melamine market trend is still upward, the price position is in an extremely high-risk area and does not meet the buying timing defined in the “Business Society Spot Market Analysis Method”. The various indicators and alerts provided by the system indicate that the current stage is a risk accumulation phase, rather than a buying opportunity. It is recommended to focus on risk prevention and closely monitor whether there is a top reversal signal in the price.
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