According to statistics of business agency, as of May 28, Jiangsu nylon filament DTY reported 15333 yuan / ton, up 167 yuan / ton, up 1.10%, down 23.21%; nylon POY price reported 12720 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, up 1.60%, down 25.61%; nylon FDY price reported 16250 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton, up 3.17%, down 23.89%. In May, the economic activities of many countries gradually recovered to boost market confidence, crude oil rose sharply, nylon raw material prices rebounded, and filament prices rose with raw materials.

Product may 1 – May 28 up and down unit

Cyclohexanone 5320 5940 620 yuan / ton

Caprolactam 8533 9917 1384 yuan / ton

PA6 (medium viscosity: 2.75-2.85) 10366 11566 1200 yuan / ton

Nylon FDY (40d / 12F) 15750 16250 500 yuan / ton

Nylon DTY (70D / 24F) 15166 15333 167 yuan / ton

Nylon POY (86d / 24F) 12520 12720 200 yuan / ton

The multinational economy gradually recovered, and crude oil prices continued to rise. As of May 27, WTI crude oil futures rose 73.66% monthly. But in late May, due to the tense trade relations between China and the United States, the increase of crude oil decreased, and there was a risk of falling back.

In the first half of May, the sharp rise of crude oil supported the raw material end of nylon filament strongly. At the same time, due to the shutdown and delayed recovery of some devices in the industrial chain, the short-term supply of caprolactam was tight, which stimulated the upstream and downstream to raise the price. The offer of caprolactam market was once pushed up by 10100-10300 yuan / ton for acceptance. However, with the return of the spot supply of cyclohexanone, the high price decreased, the market low price emerged, and the external quotation stabilized.

 
Due to the supply of raw materials, the price of PA6 continued a strong upward trend. It can be seen from the figure that PA6 and caprolactam have a strong correlation, with a similar upward trend in some periods. PA6 was boosted by the tight supply of caprolactam, but the actual transaction did not improve significantly. The upstream raw material supply will be supplemented, but there is a large driving force for the rise in the short term. In late May, China US trade relations were tense, and the market was cautious about the rise of oil price. In the later period, the rise of crude oil was weakened, the growth of derivative products was slow, the downstream demand was light, the supply of caprolactam gradually recovered, and the market returned to stability.

In May, the market price of nylon raw materials was generally raised, which led to the price increase of nylon filament manufacturers. However, the demand in the downstream did not improve greatly, and the driving force for continuous increase was insufficient. Due to the tense trade relations between China and the United States, crude oil may be sensitive to this situation, which does not rule out the possibility of falling back. Once the raw material cost support collapses, nylon filament is not immune. It is expected that the price of nylon filament will be stable and the price will be raised cautiously.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 27, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 9528 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, or 1.04%, compared with the beginning of May, down 22.95% year on year. Some viscose manufacturers are in the stage of production suspension, and the price remains at a high level. At the beginning of the month, the price generally falls, and at the end of the month, the price has picked up. The quotation of major manufacturers is 9200-9500 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of the month, after the May 1st Festival, the market order is general, the demand for cotton linter is weak, and the weak viscose is down. With the completion of processing in most of the cashmere processing plants in Xinjiang, the output of cotton cashmere has been gradually reduced, and the downstream purchase of cashmere is not strong, some chemical fiber plants and refined cotton plants have not yet started, and a small number of middlemen purchase, supporting the stability of the cotton cashmere Market. Due to the increase of freight after the festival and the stimulation of downstream orders, viscose generally fell 200-300 yuan / ton in the first ten days.

In late May, with the support of cottonseed oil, the price of cottonseed increased, but the processing of cotton linter was basically finished, and the cost had little impact. In some areas, chemical fiber factories and refined cotton factories returned to production, and a small amount of cotton linter was purchased, which stimulated the confidence of manufacturers in raising prices. At the end of the month, the price of cotton linter (Shandong industrial grade) was increased by about 100 yuan / ton in some areas, and the price was reported as 3500-3600 yuan / ton. At present, it is still difficult to deal in bulk, limiting the development of cotton linter market, and the market is still stable. The price of viscose in the current month is 9200-9800 yuan / ton, with general orders from manufacturers.

Downstream people cotton yarn passive, offer another step. As of May 27, the average price of 30s ring spun human cotton yarn was 14100 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton, or 4.73% compared with the beginning of the month. The 30s cotton yarn manufacturer reported 12800-15500 yuan / ton. The order of human cotton yarn was general, and the price had downward pressure. However, in the near future, the cost support is strong, and the price of human cotton yarn is flat at the end of the month, entering a new stable stage. It is worth noting that since 2020, there is almost no rebound in the price of rayon manufacturers, and they have been playing defensive war.

To sum up, the viscose industry chain has sufficient supply, limited order recovery, and stable operation after basic decline. It is expected that the short-term market adjustment will not be strong, and the strategy of rayon manufacturers will remain unchanged, maintaining stable quotation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of May 27, pet water bottle manufacturers had quoted 5700.00 yuan / ton, and the main negotiation price of the spot was 5550-5700 yuan / ton. The downstream purchasing was cautious, and the pet market was running smoothly.

2、 Cause analysis

The domestic pet market is stable, while the polyester bottle Market in South China is flat. The main negotiated price of the spot market is 5550-5650 yuan / ton. The polyester bottle Market in East China is narrow and weak. Now, the main manufacturers offer around 5650-5700 yuan / ton, which is just in need of purchasing. At present, the price of Xiamen Tenglong is 5700, Guangdong Taibao 5750 yuan / ton, Zhuhai China Resources 5800 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai 5700 yuan / ton, Yizheng Chemical fiber 5700 yuan / ton.

PTA raw materials run smoothly, pet cost support is weak, price fluctuation is not big, trading is light, wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

On May 26, the commodity price index BPI was 730 points, up 1 point compared with yesterday, down 28.36% compared with the highest point 1019 (2012-04-10) in the cycle, and up 10.61% compared with the lowest point 660 on February 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts of the business club believe that: the downstream is cautious, just need to purchase, and the pet market is stable in the short term. (the above prices are provided by PET major manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by PET analysts in business, for reference only. For more details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation)

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, on May 27, according to the comprehensive quotation of the sample enterprises of the business agency, at present, the mainstream reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 11000 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton higher than the price two weeks ago (on April 13), or 2%, and 1100 yuan / ton higher than the price at the beginning of April (on April 1), or more than 10%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, the overall domestic n-propanol is still in high and stable operation, the manufacturer’s factory quotation is relatively stable, the market inventory in some regions is relatively low, and the overall quotation has been increased in recent two weeks due to regional logistics and other factors. Nanjing area: the manufacturer Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. has normal operation of n-propanol production plant. At present, the price of n-propanol is 9800 yuan / ton (ex warehouse price of cash purified water), which is basically the same as that in early May. Shandong region: dealers’ quotation fluctuates according to their own inventory and sales volume. The overall price is higher than 2 weeks ago.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the latest price of n-propanol in China on May 27, 2020:

Enterprise name price type price (yuan / ton including tax) product remarks place of origin time

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. market price 10600 yuan / ton n-propanol content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; domestic May 27, 2020

Jinan angxin Chemical Co., Ltd. market price 10600 yuan / ton n-propanol content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; domestic May 27, 2020

Jinan Pratt & Whitney Chemical Co., Ltd. market price: 11300 yuan / ton n-propanol content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; domestic made on May 27, 2020

Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. market price 10600 yuan / ton n-propanol content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; domestic May 27, 2020

Industrial chain: on May 26, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th day, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th day, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. On the 11th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th day, it increased by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th day, it continued to increase by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 14th day, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th day, it still increased by 50-100 yuan / ton on weekends Until 22, the upward trend remained unchanged. The daily upward trend was 50-100 yuan / ton. On 22, the price finally began to stabilize. The weekend price slightly declined. On 25, the price of propylene fell again by 50-150 yuan / ton. Today, the price still fell by about 100 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 6670-6950 yuan / ton, and the main flow price is about 6700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency: since the second quarter, the domestic market of n-propanol driven by the surge of isopropanol is also rising. At present, the market of isopropanol is not obvious. It is predicted that the support for the market of n-propanol in June is insufficient, so it is difficult to maintain the high-level operation due to the downstream demand of n-propanol itself. It is expected that the market of n-propanol in the future will slow down.

According to the data of business agency, as of May 27, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 13360 yuan / ton, up 4.27% from 12813.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1).

With the overall expansion of the resumption of production, domestic and foreign demand for aluminum is stable, and there is no significant change. A small number of enterprises have increased within the week of commencement due to their own scheduling reasons. Supply and demand improved in May, and domestic social inventory continued to move down. On May 21, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 979000 tons, with a weekly decrease of 79000 tons.

At present, the recent contract price of aluminum in the futures market is higher than the forward contract price, and the futures market is expected to be short, which is mainly based on the poor expectation of overseas prospects and the consideration of import and export factors. On the one hand, the price of foreign aluminum (LEM) is relatively low, and the import window is open; on the other hand, the downstream aluminum exports are greatly affected by the foreign environment.

The fundamentals of supply and demand in the domestic market have been effectively improved. In the short term, the aluminum price is relatively strong, and in the later period, the operation is mainly stable. Business analysts predict that the monthly fluctuation operation is mainly in the range of 13100-13500 yuan / ton.

Recently, the market of bisphenol a continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market offer was 8800 yuan / ton on May 5, 9960 yuan / ton on May 22, 10600 yuan / ton on May 27, up 6.43% in three working days this week, and up 20.45% in May. Bisphenol a market from cost support to factory assistance, the current market is full of information, traders offer to push up sentiment.

Recently, with the market demand, bisphenol A factories have significantly increased their listing prices, boosting the rapid rise of bisphenol a market. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price adjustment of domestic BPA mainstream factories is as follows:

Before May 20, major mainstream factories maintained a long-term listing guidance price of 9500-10000 yuan / ton, and most enterprises listed below 10000 yuan / ton. In May, with the market gradually rising, when the market is close to 10000 yuan / ton, the market continues to be weak in action. At this time, each major factory has increased 500-700 yuan / ton, and the market confidence has been boosted. The traders are reluctant to sell, following the pace of the factory, and the offer has been greatly boosted. By the end of publication, the main market offer in East China is 10600-10700 yuan / ton, some of the cargo holders are less bullish, and the market offer is as high as 10900-11000 yuan / ton, and the market offer in North China is 10300-10600 yuan / ton, many traders have few supply, while the factory mainly uses or provides long-term customers, and the factory takes delivery slowly, and the market circulation is small.

Another important reason for the sharp rise of bisphenol a market is that the concentrated increase of upstream pure benzene today has a positive impact on products under the industrial chain. Today, the price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s enterprises increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene was 3450-3850 yuan / ton. In May, the price of pure benzene showed a unilateral upward trend. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of pure benzene rose from 2960 yuan / ton in 5 daily reports to 3570 yuan / ton in 27 days, with an overall increase of 20.61%.

In addition, from the cost point of view, the surge of acetone also formed a good support for bisphenol A. Take the acetone market in East China as an example. Last week, the acetone market in East China made an offer of 7900 yuan / ton, at the beginning of this week, 8100 yuan / ton, and today, 8500 yuan / ton. In just one week, the price in East China increased by 600 yuan / ton, or 7.6%. The consumption rate of acetone in the production unit of BPA accounted for 0.27. At present, the acetone market is at a three-year historical high, forming a cost support for BPA upward. The price of phenol, another important raw material, has remained stable in the near future, and the offer is mostly 6570-6650 yuan / ton, a narrow increase compared with that at the beginning of the month.

Finally, the downstream liquid epoxy resin and PC rose. The downstream liquid epoxy resin is running at a high level, the terminal wind power industry is developing well, and the enterprise’s operating rate is gradually increasing, while another raw material of epoxy resin, epichlorohydrin, stops falling and rebounds, and both raw materials are in an upward trend. The mainstream negotiation of epoxy resin market is running at a high level of 19500-20000 yuan / ton. On the PC side, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price rose from 12100 yuan / ton on the 5th to 13700 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.22%.

From the perspective of the whole industrial chain, crude oil – pure benzene / propylene – phenol / acetone – bisphenol A – Epoxy Resin / PC, from the top to the bottom, are mainly rising. Up to the crude oil boost, pull the upstream pure benzene and propylene up, the main raw material phenol high stable and acetone strong support. In the last few trading days of this month, the carrier may push the price up to the end, but the downstream firm offer follow-up is limited. The business agency expects that the bisphenol a market in East China will be 10600-10900 yuan / ton, and the actual volume will be paid attention to later.

1、 Price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid in China on May 26 was 5200 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, up 16.2% compared with the same period last year, according to the bulk data list of the business agency. On May 25, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 113.66, unchanged from yesterday, 11.86% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 128.96 (2019-07-25), and 24.70% higher than the lowest point, 91.15, on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Today, the phosphoric acid market is generally stable, and some enterprises are slightly down. In the near future, the fluctuation of yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is limited, the support for phosphoric acid is acceptable, the terminal demand is basically restored, but the export is still not smooth, the main market is domestic, the market transaction atmosphere is not warm and not hot, mainly to digest the early increase. In some areas, due to the maintenance plan of some downstream enterprises, the demand is slightly reduced, and the merchants reduce the price and make the shipment. On the whole, the release of terminal demand is weak, and businesses are more stable to wait and see. In the short term, the price of phosphoric acid has little change. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of May 26, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan was about 5000 yuan / ton – 5300 yuan / ton, that of Guangxi was about 5000 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan was about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing was about 5100 yuan / ton, that of Hubei was about 5000 yuan / ton – 5300 yuan / ton, and that of some enterprises was slightly reduced 。

The downstream market of phosphate rock has been weak in recent days, with insufficient support. In Guizhou Province, the quotation of phosphate ore from many mining enterprises was slightly lowered and put into operation, with a decrease of 10-30 yuan / ton. Yunnan’s market is relatively stable, Hubei’s current weak sorting operation is the main, and Guangxi’s overall weak phosphate ore market is downward. It is expected that the phosphorus ore market will be weak and stable in recent days. The price of yellow phosphorus market fell, and the market trading atmosphere was general. Downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, take goods carefully. The company basically has no inventory, and the on-site spot sales are OK. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 0 rising commodities, 3 falling commodities and 2 rising and falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry. The main commodities falling were phosphate rock (- 1.67%), yellow phosphorus (- 0.86%), monoammonium phosphate (- 0.18%). This week’s average was – 0.54%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and social chemical branch, at present, there is not much change in the raw material end, the supporting force is acceptable, and the release of demand is not as expected. The phosphoric acid market as a whole has stabilized, and some enterprises’ prices have been slightly reduced to facilitate shipment. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will run smoothly in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, on May 26, the average domestic market price of silicon metal (441 × 3) was 11058.33 yuan / ton, up 0.45% compared with 11008.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 6.55% compared with 11833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year.

The price of 441 silicon in each region on the 26th is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian area is 10600-10700 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan area is 10900-11000 yuan / ton, that in Kunming area is 10800-10900 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai area is 11500-11700 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu port is 11100-11200 yuan / ton 。

In May, the price of silicon metal 441 was stable, and the supply and demand game was dynamic.

On the supply side, silicon companies started work less than expected, their inventory was lower than expected, and silicon companies were willing to hold up prices. Many start-up enterprises adopt the pre-sale mode to lock the production capacity in advance.

At the sales end, the export market was weak in May, with a small amount of rigid procurement as the main demand; the downstream demand in the domestic market was relatively warmer, because of the doubt on the terminal demand and the short expectation on raw materials, the procurement of raw materials was more cautious, mainly on demand, and the inventory of raw materials was low.

Silicon enterprises open or increase in June

In June, the number of silicon enterprises in the southwest production area will increase, and Sichuan will gradually enter the water rich period, and the enthusiasm of silicon plants for furnace opening will gradually increase. In the direction of Yunnan, Baoshan and Lincang silicon plants may increase the starting load as usual, and Yunnan Dehong silicon plant is expected to gradually open in June.

In the direction of Xinjiang, production problems caused by silica shortage and power supply equipment are expected to be solved. With the increase of the operating rate of two large factories in Xinjiang and the smooth operation of medium-sized enterprises in Ili and other places, the capacity will be released or more fully in June.

Three major downstream demand

1. Polysilicon

According to data from the business agency, since April, domestic polysilicon prices have been falling continuously, reaching a historical low.

At present, the supply and demand of polysilicon market is unbalanced. At the supply side, the overall domestic operation rate remains at 80-90%. Although some manufacturers cut production and shut down due to shrinking demand orders, the overall operation rate is relatively high due to relative demand; at the demand side, the global terminal installation is blocked, and the overseas orders at the domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, resulting in the reduction of the domestic component manufacturers’ operation rate, which is then transmitted to the silicon part of the upstream industrial chain.

It is predicted that the demand for polysilicon will not be changed in the short term, the number of production cuts and production stops of enterprises will increase under the double blow of low price and hard to find orders, the operating rate and output may move down on a month on month basis, and the demand for raw metal silicon will be negative.

2. Organosilicon DMC

According to the data of business agency, after the return of the year, the price of organosilicon DMC fell sharply, and the low-level operation was mainly from April to May.

At present, the bottom of organosilicon DMC is fluctuating and the supply and demand game is dynamic and stable. It is reported that in the early stage, many factories have plans to reduce production and stop maintenance, and the market is expected to be better with the efforts of major monomer factories to increase. Recently, the starting load cycle ratio of organosilicon monomer has slightly increased, and the turnover of organosilicon DMC has improved.

Based on the factors of supply chain management, at present, organosilicon, especially some monomer plants, are mainly purchased on demand due to the influence of bearish silicon price and cautious factors on the downstream market, and the possibility of short-term expansion of the demand for raw metal silicon is small.

3. Aluminum alloy

Recently, the inventory of aluminum industry chain has been significantly reduced. As of May 21, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 30000 tons to 964000 tons compared with that of last Monday. As of May 22, the inventory of aluminum in the previous period has decreased by 30300 tons to 322100 tons compared with that of last week. The inventory of LME aluminum has increased by 38400 tons to 1458100 tons compared with last week.

It is reported that the consumption of profile and aluminum foil plate is better, and the consumption of aluminum plate belt and recycled aluminum and aluminum cable tends to be weaker. In terms of exports, in April 2020, 441000 tons of aluminum products were exported, down 19% year on year. From January to April, the total export was 1628000 tons, down 16% year on year. At the later stage, the aluminum outlet is under pressure.

The operation rate of domestic aluminum alloy is affected by the improvement of terminal automobile consumption, and the operation rate is relatively high. In April, automobile production and sales were 2.012 million and 2.07 million respectively, up 46.6% and 43.5% month on month, up 2.3% and 4.4% year on year respectively.

However, with the opening of the profit window of aluminum ingot import, the imported aluminum alloy may occupy the domestic aluminum alloy Market in the later stage. It is expected that the consumption of silicon metal for aluminum alloy will be weakened after June.

Future forecast

The metal silicon purchased under rigid demand is greatly affected by the overall supply and demand factors. With the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity may be released, while the downstream consumption may not be able to expand synchronously. It is expected that in the near future, the metal silicon will be mainly operated in the air, and in the later stage, it will focus on the environmental policy factors and the impact of the average cost of social production on the supply side.

According to statistics, the price of domestic fluorite rebounded to the bottom. As of the 26th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2588.89 yuan / ton, ending the 20 day low state of fluorite market, and the market price of fluorite rose slightly.

The price of fluorite bottomed out and rebounded, among which the most favorable factor was the increase of domestic inquiries. Some manufacturers reported the recent increase of orders for fluorite. Stimulated by the increase of enquiries, the domestic fluorite manufacturers were in a strong mood of rising. The fluorite price was ready to be launched, and the market price was in a strong mood of rising. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of mines and flotation units in the site is normal, the delivery of fluorite in the site is improved, and the market price of fluorite is slightly higher. In the near future, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price is still at a low level, and the downstream of the terminal is mainly purchased on demand. As of the 26th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2500-2700 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2500-2700 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-2700 yuan / ton. In the near future, domestic fluorite businesses see Strong sentiment, fluorite market has a rising trend.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite still fell. As of the 26th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8580 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. The decline of the downstream hydrofluoric acid Market restricted the growth of fluorite market. Recently, the sales of the automobile industry have improved compared with the previous ones, but the market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is still depressed. There is no obvious improvement in the demand for refrigerant. With the continuous recovery of foreign economy, the export of refrigerant terminal may improve. However, the domestic air-conditioning industry starts at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. On the whole, foreign demand may rise. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is still fluctuating, but the situation of market price or not appears. The mainstream price of R22 for domestic large enterprises is 14500-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, the demand for R134a is cold, the procurement of downstream industry is not active in the near future, the price drops slightly, the downstream demand is not significantly improved, and the growth of fluorite market is limited to some extent.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, but in the near future, the hydrofluoric acid merchants reflect that hydrofluoric acid may rebound to the bottom. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may rise slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business association, as of May 25, based on the quotation of several sample enterprises, at present, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 6233 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton, or 1.08% compared with the price of last Monday (May 18, 6166 yuan / ton), and up 433 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of the month (May 1, 5800 yuan / ton) , up 7.47%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in a flash, the end of May has come. After the market of butanone was on the upsurge in early May due to the stock in the downstream of labor day and the acetone market of related products, many downstream users purchased butanone as their substitute, which brought a peak of price adjustment for the butanone market. Many factories and dealers raised the market price of butanone on the 7th, and the average market price after the labor day was 6250 yuan / ton Nearby, after a few days of high prices maintaining stability, the attitude of the industry was obviously improved. On the 16th, some areas with low inventory and factories slightly increased the factory quotation of butanone by 50-150 yuan / ton again, and the market reference average price was around 6350 yuan / ton. In late May, due to the impact of international public events, the recovery of the downstream civil engineering and other terminal markets has not been fully opened, the downstream demand follow-up is slow, and the butanone market can not bear the inventory pressure. On 19th, the offer of butanone factory slightly decreased, and the reference average price fell to around 6150 yuan / ton on that day. The market was weak all the way to 25. Driven by the rise of acetone market, the offer of butanone market in some regions was up Adjustment, range: 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 25th, the butanone market in East China has slightly increased, and the quotation is relatively firm, with an increase of about 50-100 yuan / ton. The mainstream reference quotation in the market is 6100-6350 yuan / ton, and the average reference price is 6250 yuan / ton. Among them, the ex factory quotation of Shandong Dongming pear chemical butanone is 6100 yuan / ton (purified water), 100 yuan / ton higher than a week ago; the ex factory quotation of Shandong Zibo Qixiang butanone is 6300 yuan / ton (purified water), 50 yuan / ton higher than a week ago; the ex factory quotation of Ningbo Jinfa new material butanone is 6400 yuan / ton (purified water), 100 yuan / ton higher than a week ago. The butanone market in South China is mainly in stable operation, with the mainstream reference price of 6200-6350 yuan / ton and the average reference price of 6300 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: after the May Day holiday, CP rose sharply, and crude oil rose, driving the price of liquefied gas up. However, the market is too short. With the completion of replenishment after the downstream holiday, the stock is mainly consumed after delisting. The trading atmosphere in the market is weaker than that in the earlier stage. The manufacturer’s shipment is blocked, and the stock is gradually increased. Then the price will fall. The benefits brought by crude oil to the market are limited. Currently, the market has sufficient supply, but affected by seasonal factors, the weather is gradually warming, and the terminal demand is reduced Less, liquefied gas market is about to usher in the traditional demand off-season. The long replenishment cycle in the lower reaches leads to the imbalance of supply and demand in the market. At present, the civil market of liquefied gas mainly falls. As of the 26th, the outgoing price of Jilin Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2180 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2300 yuan / ton, Jingmen Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2620 yuan / ton, Shanghai Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2700 yuan / ton, Gaoqiao Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2780 yuan / ton, Qingdao Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2600 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2600 yuan / ton. Luoyang Petrochemical liquefied gas factory price is 2650 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it seems that the domestic butanone market is the main player this month, but the upward path is difficult and slow, and the downstream demand is still insufficient. In addition, it is heard that a large number of ships arrived at the port around the 20th, and the operators are more cautious to wait and see. Therefore, the small increase driven by acetone or the decline again due to the lack of downstream demand power and other factors.