Domestic propane Market in the two or three quarter out of the obvious “V” word market, the market change is relatively rapid, especially since July, the market has continued to push up trend, beyond expectations.
Propane trend
After entering May, with the gradual rise in temperature, propane Market into the off-season consumption, the market compared to the same period in previous years, showing a gradual downward trend, in line with expectations. But at the end of June and early July market bottomed out, and continued to push up the situation, beyond people’s expectations, there is a feeling in advance into the peak season of consumption.
Due to rapid decline in June, propane prices low for the year, though still in high temperature season, but some businesses have hunters desire, boost the market trend; and in July, the domestic environmental protection inspection of unprecedented, most part of the device or the whole plant of refinery downtime, the actual supply of propane decreased ease factory sales pressure; the end of August the National Games held in Hebei and the surrounding area traffic control, Shandong, North China, Northeast China Resources Circulation influenced resources in Northeast China and the surrounding areas to further boost the market shortage. These favorable followed, continue to give the propane Market push up momentum, and other propane market shocks upward in the third quarter, the current price has been 4282 yuan / ton, close to the high point of the year.
As the third quarter propane market performance is strong, continuous push up, the price has climbed to a relatively high level. After entering the fourth quarter of the traditional sales season, whether it still has upside? Can market performance reach expectations?

The fourth quarter was the peak season for the sale of liquefied gases in China, especially the demand for propane in the market, especially in the northeast and other northern regions. Because of its high pressure and strong combustion, propane is especially suitable for the cold climate in winter in the north. But the northeast area has the normal supply of propane manufacturers only Dalian petrochemical, Jinzhou petrochemical, Dalian West Pacific three (Jinxi petrochemical refinery supply instability), the overall supply is less, then northeast supply gap needs to North China, Shandong and even the East China Resources to fill the area above the propane sales pressure can be eased. The ability to digest the fourth quarter and propane in Northeast China and surrounding areas after the upgrade, the resources almost never go down into Shandong, East and other regions, from the side to Shandong, East and other regions of the propane Market to boost.
As far as breath is concerned, the demand for propane in China is not only huge in winter, but also in India, Japan and other neighboring countries. The Middle East and the United States as the northern region of the main suppliers in the winter of propane, sales also increased significantly, the price will also increase, which will promote the Southern China, along the Yangtze River and other coastal areas of the propane Market to rise.
Major areas of propane supply
At present, in late September, the National Day holiday is coming, some businesses exist pre replenishment requirements, the propane market will certainly boost the role. However, due to the current temperature changes are not obvious, the terminal of propane digestion capacity has not been significantly improved, so in the short term the market is difficult to show a strong performance. National Day, the market will enter the fourth quarter, as the temperature decreases, improve the terminal digestion ability, as well as civilian gas, imported gas price up to promote good, long-term domestic existing propane Market upward momentum, the overall performance of the market is worth looking forward to.

Magnesium is the fourth major nutrient after nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The demand for magnesium fertilizer in China’s agriculture will increase rapidly and catch up with Europe. With the present soil situation estimated, the annual requirement should be conservatively estimated at 4 million tons (with Magnesium Sulfate). This is the reporter from the September 20th International Study on magnesium nutrition in Beijing (the Institute of magnesium (IMI)) that the first Council on information. The Institute was founded a year ago magnesium (IMI) to trace magnesium and magnesium in plant nutrition elements and other nutrient element interaction as the main research object, and put forward three combination: location of workers and peasants business combination, plant nutrition research and application of combination of theory and practice, combined with the.
This year, the fertilizer industry’s interest in magnesium fertilizer has risen sharply. The value of magnesium fertilizer for global agriculture is constantly being recognized by the industry, but the interaction between Mg and other elements is relatively backward, and the standard of application of magnesium is also blank. Experts put forward: magnesium fertilizer in the rational application of crops and magnesium fertilizer industry healthy development, is of great significance. And what make the industry more attention is: “boron magnesium fertilizer” national standard will be put into effect formally next year on April 1st.
In the first Council of the Institute of magnesium, the reporter saw 7 Specialized Committee members from 6 countries, who are experts in the global magnesium nutrition research and application field of the most authoritative. 7 experts associate with magnesium because of magnesium. The Turkey Sabanci university professor Cakmak Ismail, Professor Zhang Fusuo China Nongda, de salt Dr. Guo Yanliang is out of the same door.

The reporter is interested in research work: magnesium opens up a new model for China fertilizer innovation. Scientific research institutions and enterprises jointly develop magnesium, from nutrition research to new areas of fertilizer category development. Such cooperation has the depth and breadth of space research and product innovation can freely extend and expand cross cooperation more, its research value is not limited to scientific research or fertilizer products, but in the common Gou Jianyi complete from the plant nutrient fertilizer to new category of industrial chain.
Horses forage first, Professor Zhang Fusuo at the first Council held in the first place, the issue is to research room, Institute of magnesium equipment, staff recruitment, it is rolled up his sleeves rhythm. Reporters noted that the Institute started for the global recruitment of magnesium from July, positions including deputy director of the Institute, a full-time researcher, Dr and other staff. It is understood that relying on the German potash and magnesium Institute Fujian Agriculture And Forestry University, founded in September 2016 in Fujian Agriculture And Forestry University.
Magnesium is a forgotten nutrient in China and many other countries. Magnesium fertilizer has been used in Europe for more than 80 years. Magnesium fertilizer has been used in Europe as much as millions of tons (with Magnesium Sulfate), which is the highest in the world. The lack of magnesium in China’s soil is also quite serious. Statistics from the agricultural sector show that 210 million mu of soil in China is moderately deficient in magnesium, and 140 million mu of land is seriously deficient in magnesium. Based on the location of the global radiation China magnesium Institute is also cater to the market demand.

September 20, 2017, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the “Federal Bulletin” issued management regulations (2017-20050): the exclusion of Spirulina extract as a pigment additive certification procedures, allowing it to use shell boiled eggs (21CFR73.530), the amount of use in accordance with good production standards.

This provision was entered into force on 3 July 2017 and the effective date was confirmed again on 3 August 2017.

Plastic consumption season comes, the downstream plastic sheeting rate continues to increase, usually this trend will continue until the end of October or early November, at this stage, plastic demand will be significantly improved. The second quarter of the device centralized maintenance makes petrochemical stocks quickly digested, has recently been maintained at a low level, then the peak season, petrochemical stocks is difficult to accumulate, and even further to the possibility of inventory, so low-shelf status of short-term difficult to change, this plastic price will be Produce strong support.

However, plastic production has returned to high, lucrative support device high load operation, is expected to plastic production in the third quarter will be at a high level. In terms of imports, there is also a large increase in the amount of imports due to the substantial increase in trade profits. Once the import flows are concentrated, the domestic stocks will accumulate rapidly and the price will be downward.

The season has come, and demand has improved

Usually in May is the most light production of plastic film production period, the device operating rate for the lowest level during the year, since June, July start operating rate bottomed out, and began to continue to improve until the beginning of November to reach the highest level in the year. As the downstream companies need to purchase raw materials in advance, therefore, plastic demand in September gradually into the consumption season, and continued to October, while the corresponding demand for plastic in May is the most weak period. Although the seasonal seasonal law of packaging film is not significant, but the three or four quarters is gradually increasing the process.

Second-quarter intensive installation equipment, PE device operating rate dropped to a minimum of about 70%, therefore, despite the consumption in the off-season, but the supply of shrinkage makes the petrochemical stocks fell rapidly. In late July, with the pre-maintenance device restart, the supply gradually increased, while the market demand is still weak, petrochemical stocks accumulated slightly, but still in the low, and significantly lower than the level of the same period last year, which is supporting the sharp rise in plastic main reason. Then, into the peak season, demand improvement will help petrochemical stocks remain at a low level. This year by the impact of environmental protection, season demand started relatively slow, but the production of plastic sheeting has just need the nature of raw materials demand will gradually increase.

Lucrative or lead to supply pressure

At present, the overall crude oil is still in the low stage of oscillation, oil olefins cost is low, and since June, plastic prices rose sharply, oil production of considerable profits, August average profit of 3,000 yuan / ton.

Coal production costs of olefins, although the coal prices rose significantly increased, but the strong polyolefin makes the production of coal olefins is still rich, August average profit of 3600 yuan / ton or more.

PE enterprises in the high profits to stimulate the production of full power, the recent PE overall operating rate remained at 90% or more, part of the original planned maintenance of the device also delayed parking is expected in the third quarter PE production increased by 7% in the second quarter, LLDPE was 11%. PE maintenance in the fourth quarter less, and Shenhua Ning coal production, so PE and LLDPE production will remain high.

Import, first of all, according to seasonal rules, usually the third quarter imports will be due to the consumption season significantly higher than the ring. Second, since June LLDPE imports began to profit, and the recent profit has been maintained at a high level, so high profits will inevitably lead to increased imports, which is very similar to the situation in the fourth quarter of last year, if a large influx of imported goods, plastic prices Will be under pressure, but the current hurricane affected by the United States exports to China a limited number.

Operational strategy

Short-term plastic is still the demand for season support, the price adjustment can be considered after the end of the bargain to do more, but after the peak season, the supply pressure, when the plastic or there will be a larger decline in the market,

In addition, from the seasonal pattern of demand, 1801 is the peak season contract, and 1805 is the off-season contract, while the short-term low inventory, and there is tired after the peak season is expected, so more than 1801 empty 1805 contract sets can participate.

Need to pay attention to the risk factors: First, do short-term risk, such as the demand for fake season, imports soared. Second, the risk of short season after the risk, such as the accident occurred in the installation of the accident, the output is less than expected.

In the haze management and environmental incentives, the traditional high-polluting paint is accelerating water-based paint and other emerging paint instead. Dai Guoqing, deputy secretary general of China Chemical Industry Association, said that in 2016, the output of paint enterprises above the national scale was 18,977,800 tons, up by 7.2% year on year. The first half of this year, the paint industry under construction, production and planning projects, water paint accounted for up to 70%.

Many people do not know that the paint can be seen everywhere is one of the factors causing haze. As the use of paint need to add organic solvents, the release of a large number of volatile organic compounds, and automobile exhaust, industrial waste gas together, and ultimately the formation of ozone and PM2.5 pollution. And the water can only be diluted with water, resulting in volatile organic matter less than 1/10 of the paint.

“Water-based paint industry is an important means of transformation to the green environment.” Dai Guoqing held in the day of the first water paint Expo, said the recent efforts to increase environmental protection, China has imposed by the paint consumption tax, the development of key downstream paint industry Air pollutant discharge standards and a series of initiatives to accelerate the paint to the paint changes.

“The current water paint in the steel structure, wood furniture, automotive and other industries to promote the use of a relatively high degree of ‘oil to water’ wave has begun to paint upstream and downstream industry chain expansion.” China Chemical Industry Association, deputy director of the Institute of Water Painting Said that is expected after 5 years, China’s water paint market demand will be more than 6.3 million tons.

According to the reporter to understand, the National Stadium “Bird’s Nest” recently updated film, on the choice of environmentally friendly water paint as a paint. Street streets everywhere to see the shared cycling “yellow car”, but also brush the water paint.

Ministry of Industry and other issued by the “key industries volatile organic matter reduction action plan” clearly requires that by 2018, low (no) volatile organic compounds, the proportion of green paint products to reach more than 60%. The industry generally believe that there is a lot of water paint to promote space.

“China’s water use paint in 2016 about 1.89 million tons, accounting for less than 10% of the proportion of the entire coating industry.” Hong Dingyi that, with the improvement of water paint performance, in the past that is difficult to replace the petrochemical, railway, The field of anti-corrosion coatings, now nearly 70% can also be replaced with water-based paint.

As of September 25 closing, butadiene FOB Korea 1549.00-1551.00 US dollars / ton; butadiene CFR China reported 1599.00-1601.00 US dollars / ton.

As of September 25, butadiene FOB Rotterdam spot 1198.00-1202.00 US dollars / ton; butadiene FD Northwest Europe spot 948.00-952.00 euros / ton.

September 25, 2017 European strategic small metal cobalt ingots (99.3%) offer 28.5 US dollars / lb, unchanged from the previous day; electrolytic cobalt (99.8%) offer 30.25 US dollars / lb.

LME nickel and zinc rose on Monday, after a sharp decline in late last week, copper prices held steady, but China’s demand worries and the dollar stronger limit gains.

“We are trying to build the bottom because the price has fallen from the recent highs,” said Robin Bhar, head of metal at Societe Generale.

Three-month zinc did not reach a deal, but the offer rose 2.4 percent to $ 3,103 a tonne, dropping to $ 3,000 a week on Friday.

Three-month nickel rose 0.5% to $ 10,475 a tonne, after falling over 8% on Thursday and Friday, when the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised its handling fee to limit speculative trading.

Three-month copper rose 0.1% to $ 6,460 a tonne. Hit $ 6,366 on Friday, the lowest level since August 16.

Three-month aluminum fell 0.5 percent to $ 2,147 a tonne; three-month lead rose 1 percent to $ 2,507 a tonne; three-month tin rose 0.2 percent to $ 20,575 per tonne.

Beginning in mid-August this year, silence for half a year of the styrene market began to force, as of mid-September just a month, or up to 20%. Once reached 11850 yuan / ton high, from the highest price this year, 12,000 yuan / ton only one step away. The current round of styrene prices rose by the domestic part of the device parking, downstream ABS demand and other comprehensive effects, which is expected to reduce the import volume has played a vital role in driving.

As we all know, for a long time, China has been a net importer of styrene, although in recent years, domestic production has been launched, making the domestic supply of styrene has increased, but by the end of 2016, styrene imports are still about 40% Changes in the international market for the domestic market trend of a great impact on the styrene.

August European market supply continued to tighten, in which the French Gonfreville styrene device suffered force majeure, part of the styrene plant plans to repair and replace the catalyst in September, the European market supply tightening, the price soared. As the price in Europe is much higher than that in the US and Asia, and freight costs between Europe and the United States are lower than those between the US and Asia, most US traders have chosen to deploy their goods to Europe, thereby reducing their supply to the Asian market.

China’s major sources of imports in the United States, in late August, affected by Hurricane Harvey, Texas and Louisiana area suffered heavy losses, the United States has a total of 4.8 million tons of styrene production capacity, and these devices are located in the above mentioned Affected areas. Affected by this, Benzene and Lee Andre Basel located in the local total of 2.47 million tons of equipment to stop, other manufacturers part of the load operation.

In addition, the beginning of June on originating in South Korea, Taiwan and the United States imports of styrene anti-dumping program investigation also plays a supporting role in the market traders mentality. For a long time, the above areas have been the main source of imports of styrene in China. In this case from January to July this year, for example, South Korea accounted for 36.0% of the total import territory, the United States accounted for 9.1%, Taiwan accounted for 6.3%, the three together accounted for half of the source of imports, if the final determination of the region There is anti-dumping behavior, the domestic supply pattern of styrene will be a big change, and domestic products will become the biggest profit.

In the long run, with the gradual release of domestic production capacity, the international market to guide the domestic price trend will be reduced, the right to speak of domestic products will gradually increase. 2016, the domestic production capacity compared to the previous year, a substantial increase of 865,000 tons to 8.55 million tons. In 2017, Jiujiang Petrochemical 80,000 tons / year plant and Ningbo Branch yuan 120,000 tons / year device has been put into operation, the latter will also have CNOOC Whitening two 630,000 tons / year plant and Qingdao Alkali 50 million tons / year device plan Put into operation, if the device put into operation, the end of 2017 the domestic styrene production capacity will reach 9.88 million tons, the industry self-sufficiency rate to further improve.

At present, the domestic styrene market is still largely affected by the international import market, the latter if the anti-dumping is established, coupled with a substantial increase in domestic production capacity, the styrene market self-sufficiency rate will be effectively improved, domestic products in the market to further strengthen the right to speak, but Subject to the import supply is still a certain unique advantages, domestic import substitution process will be long and full of uncertainty.