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Global mining opens a new era

In the 2017, the world economy recovered more than expected and mining was taking advantage.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic outlook report, has raised global growth forecasts for the next two years by 0.1%, a growth rate of 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018, and a rise in growth forecasts for major economies, including China. The IMF estimates that 3/4 of the world’s economies will grow faster this year, the biggest increase in the global economy in nearly 10 years.

 

Data show that over the past year, prices of major metal ore products have fluctuated frequently, and shortages of major metals and minerals have continued to intensify. In the first half of 2017, the world’s top ten mining companies operating performance growth, some companies share prices than the early 2016 rose 4 times times. Important Mineral Resources countries, in addition to Peru’s GDP growth continues to decline, Canada, South Africa, Chile, Australia’s GDP growth rate between the 1%~3%, Brazil is gradually out of recession, Russia rebounded quarterly, the Chinese economy is gradually stabilising. There are signs that the global mining bottoming is starting to emerge.

 

In the recent China Mining industry chain Conference, a number of experts and scholars in the mining field said that after four years of sinking in 2012, the global mining industry in the new round of economic recovery or will usher in another active period. Combined with new opportunities in the “All along” mining cooperation, the global mining industry is opening a new era.

Melamine

 

Important mineral exploration and development investment rebound

 

After 4 years of continuous decline, the global mineral exploration and development investment showed signs of recovery.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report predicts that emerging and developing economies grew by 4.6% in 2017 and 4.8% in 2018. Among them, China grew 6.7% and 6.4% respectively, Russia grew 1.4% and 1% respectively, Brazil grew 0.3%, 1.3% respectively, India grew 7.2%, 7.7%, and South Africa grew 1% and 1.2% respectively.

 

Jingweidong, Director of Department of Land and Resources Information Center, said that China’s economic growth is stable, India may become the world’s sixth largest economy. The rebound in iron ore prices has led to a gradual downturn in the economies of mineral exporters such as Brazil, but the slump in oil prices has made the economies of Russia, Venezuela and other countries still more difficult. With the development of mining projects and the construction of infrastructure, some African countries will show rapid growth.

 

According to the SNL Metals and mining Group survey, the global non-ferrous metal exploration investment in 2016 was 6.89 billion U.S. dollars, down 22% from the previous year, the company is expected to stabilize the recovery in 2017.

 

The country’s mineral exploration investment was $783 million trillion in the first half of 2017, up 21% from $644 million a year earlier, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Gold and base metals picked up a larger percentage of ore, while iron ore and other minerals grew less.

 

The World Class copper mine project, such as Democratic RCD-Kakula, continues to make important progress. May, Kakula announced the new resource volume: Copper Metal presumed resources volume 11.3 million tons, copper grade 3.23%, speculate resource volume 1.36 million tons, copper grade 2.26%. At present, the whole of the Kakula-copper mine project along the length of more than 10-kilometer, ore resources of 1 billion tons, will be among the world’s top three copper ore ranks.

 

Ecuador’s Cascaville copper-gold mine has continuously made new exploration results, repeatedly announced that drilling found thick near-kilometer mineralization, individual drilling more than 1200 meters, the project is expected to be the first announcement of resource volume at the end of the year.

 

Mongohamagote copper and gold exploration continues to achieve new results. Among them, the Aletantal-covered deposit is 646 meters, copper grade 0.51%, gold 0.87 grams/ton, net Mountain deposit 264 meters, copper grade 0.56%, gold grade 1.46 grams/ton.

 

At the same time, the exploration of lithium ore and metallogenic theory have made important progress. Democratic Congo’s Mannono (Manono) Lithium mine is considered to be the world’s largest hard rock type lithium mine, is the “Escondida Dida” in the lithium mine, the prospective ore resources amount 1 billion ~12 billion tons, lithium oxide grade 1.25%~1.5%. US scientists have discovered that the lava from the super volcanic eruption cooled and formed rocks, releasing lithium in weathering and erosion and accumulating lithium-clay deposits. The discovery also helps explain the genesis of lithium deposits in South America’s “lithium triangle”. The volcano is dense and the lithium from the volcano is eroded and weathered and enriched in the Alpine Salt Lake.

 

Jingweidong said the global survey budget data released by the S & P has entered the rising channel. The 2017 nonferrous metal exploration budget was 7.95 billion U.S. dollars, the first rebound since 2012. Copper, cobalt, lithium, graphite, gold, zinc and other minerals have become the main target of exploration, and have made some important discoveries, will become a new trend of mineral exploration.

 

Jingweidong said that after several years of difficult operations, mining companies to improve profitability, profit growth, market capitalisation increased, financing is no longer so difficult. According to the world’s top ten mining companies statistics, the first half of the total net profit of 16.5 billion U.S. dollars, is twice times the same period last year, close to the year 60%. Profits of the big three iron miners rose more than 60% year-on-year.

 

Mining industry’s position in economic development is rising

 

The research report of the Mineral Resources Situation Analysis Group of China National Institute of Land and Resources Economics said that overall, both developed and developing economies have taken mining as the main driving force for economic development, a phenomenon that has been rare in recent years.

 

Zhang Hongtao, the former chief engineer of the State Council, said that with the recovery of the world’s emerging economies, a pick-up in manufacturing and trade, stronger market confidence and stable commodity prices, exports of commodity emerging markets resumed growth.

 

“In the next 20 years, the global economic development will not change the demand for resources, the resource shortage fundamentals will not change, the global development trend will not end.” Moreover, China’s new drive for economic development has not been fully released. In the future, global energy demand will remain strong, with more than half of China’s energy needs. “Zhang Hongtao said. However, in a single energy consumption, oil remained the dominant fuel, accounting for 1/3 of the total, and in 2016, after a 15-year (1999 ~2014) decline, the oil market share increased for the second consecutive year and the coal share fell to 28.1%.

Stannous Sulphate

 

“Despite China’s superior mineral resources, rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, vanadium, titanium, tantalum, magnesite, fluorite, graphite, barite, bentonite, talc, Glauber’s salt and other minerals identified resources reserves ranked first in the world, of which rare earth reserves accounted for 80% of the world, antimony ore accounted for 40%, titanium ore reserves are the sum of other countries reserves, Tungsten reserves are 4 times times the sum of other countries ‘ reserves, but the situation of the shortage of minerals remains difficult to change. Zhang Hongtao said that the demand for resources will remain high for a long time, from the global economic development trend, mining in the economic growth of the share is rising.

 

This trend is being confirmed by other countries around the world. U.S. President Trump, after his inauguration, to fulfill his campaign commitments, issued a variety of policies to support mining development. This March, Trump signed the “energy independence” of the Executive order. July, Trump announced the abolition of the Obama administration in the restrictions imposed on overseas coal-fired power plants to provide financing policy. In addition, the Obama administration’s ban on federal land for coal leases was lifted in the lease of federal land. This series of policies has led to a sharp rebound in U.S. coal production and exports.

 

Brazil has made drastic changes to its mining management system to promote its mining industry. On the one hand, the Mineral Development Bureau has been transformed into a national mineral administration responsible for mining supervision, with the aim of increasing transparency and reducing bureaucracy. On the other hand, the mining entitlements are raised to convert the tax base from net sales to gross revenue and to introduce floating tax rates in accordance with price changes. Take iron ore, for example, if the price is less than 60 dollars/ton, the tax rate is 2%, the price is 60 USD/ton ~70 USD/ton, the tax rate is 2.5%, the price is 70 USD/ton ~80 USD/ton, the tax rate is 3%, the price is 80 USD/ton ~100 USD/ton, the tax rate is 3.5% If above 100 USD/ton, 4%. In addition, the introduction of annual inspection tax on mining activities in Brazil, according to the size of the company and the stage of the project, the mining companies each year to pay 500~5000 of the tax.

 

Other countries and regions that have decided to raise taxes and increase taxes are still many. For example, Australia will raise the gold royalty rate from 2.5% to 3.75%, the Democratic Congo to restore mining companies import value-added tax, Tanzania levy mineral Export Inspection tax, India levy gold sales tax, the United States to raise the coal right gold tax rate.

 

In some countries, national mining companies have been conceived or established to strengthen national control over mining and improve competitiveness. February, Bolivia established a national lithium mining company. April, the Chilean national copper Company set up a lithium mining branch. Ecuador approved the establishment of a national mining company in June.

 

In order to strengthen the design and management of the top level of mineral resources, some countries have established specialized agencies. In March, for example, Colombia established the National Water Resources Commission, and in April Argentina established the Federal Energy Commission.

 

There are signs that mining is on the rise in the world’s leading mining-producing countries, both in terms of industry orientation and management design.

 

Global mining bottoming out

 

“China’s economy is generally good, new business mode, new model of China’s economic support is increasing, private investment is low, enterprise financing is difficult, the industrial structure is unreasonable, the resource demand is weak, the geological prospecting benefit decline and other challenges still cannot be neglected.” China’s economic integration into the global economy, we must face the international situation caused by instability and uncertainty. “Zhang Hongtao predicts that global demand for energy minerals is expected to grow and that the price of important metal minerals is rising.” Most of the “three dilute” mineral resources are in short supply, international mineral prices have risen comprehensively, and mineral exports of important mineral minerals have rebounded sharply.

 

Zhang Hongtao said that the innovation drive has become the new impetus of the resource industry of the Times, and environmental protection has become an important indicator of China’s energy structure adjustment. Green sustainable development has become a global consensus, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, nuclear power, shale gas, combustible ice, geothermal and other renewable clean alternative energy will maintain high growth.

 

The economic outlook for the US, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets has improved, said Ping, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the Chinese Geological Survey. In the 2017, the “simultaneous growth” of the global economic recovery in various economies has not occurred in the past decade.

 

Affected by the above factors, the global Mining index overall out of the downturn, into a stage of slow recovery. The junior high school level company financing, initial resource quantity discovery all presents the fluctuation type to rise. “Ping said that 2017 global solid mineral exploration investment bottoming up, the solid mineral exploration budget has risen for the first time since 2012, up 14% from 2016 to $7.95 billion.”

 

“Investment volatility in geological exploration can best reflect the cyclical cycle of the mining industry, which can be used as a barometer of mining industry.” Yang Bing, former director of the Center for Nonferrous Metals Mineral Geology, said that during the ~2017 years of 1991, the mining industry experienced two cyclical fluctuations, one in 1993 ~2002 and the other 2003 ~2016 years.

Sodium Molybdate

 

“According to the cycle theory, the mining recession should be bottoming out in 2016 and rebound in 2017.” Yang Bing said that at the China International Mining Conference in September 2017, most of the authoritative experts attending the meeting endorsed this point: 2017 will be the starting point for a new cycle of mining.

 

Data show that in September 2016 ~2017 September, the price of mineral products rose to varying degrees. Prices of copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, lithium and cobalt rose 35%, 27.4%, 38%, 36%, 75% and 118% respectively. Profits in China’s mining industry have increased sharply. At the same time, global mining financing mergers are also becoming active. According to the statistics, 2017 two financing amount of 71 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 15%, the first half of the merger has been more than 2016, the acquisition amount of 28 billion U.S. dollars, compared with the same period last year 14.6 billion U.S. dollar growth 92%, mergers and acquisitions case growth of 3.3% to 222.

 

A global mining report released by PwC in June showed that after a sharp fall in minerals in the past few years, the world’s minerals are picking up, companies are starting to profit and their balance sheets are stronger. According to PwC, the top 40 mining companies in the market value, in 2016, the 40 mining companies total profit of 20 billion U.S. dollars, and 2015 losses of 28 billion U.S. dollars.

 

“The global mining industry in the short term, after 2012, mining investment continued to decline, the withdrawal of economic capacity, there are capacity consumption, the lack of new capacity input, resulting in the market will be conducive to the direction of the supply side.” Yang Bing said that in the long run, the mining industry continues to a good foundation more solid: “Along the way”, China’s demand for mineral resources will remain high, China’s environmental requirements to further reduce the old capacity, new capacity growth will be affected by a separate source.

 

“The technological revolution will change the pattern of resource demand. “However, Yang Bing said, this round of economic growth will not appear similar to the previous round of the super cycle, it is difficult to reproduce the extraordinary development of such a large economy as China, where other emerging economies such as India and ASEAN are gradually industrializing, and the demand for mineral resources will usher in a new cyclical growth, but it is noteworthy that the level of competition in the industry will tend to increase , demand changes and price fluctuations will be more frequent.

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Copper Industry Investment Prospects Report: Copper prices continued to rise, and promote the performance of copper enterprises strong

In the first three quarters of 2017, as the average copper price rebounded, the profitability of copper enterprises increased significantly. Operating revenue and net profit of 18 sample companies increased by 13.08% and 233.52% respectively over the same period of last year with an average gross profit margin of 8.64% Over the same period increased by 0.95 percentage points, of which mining companies and high self-sufficiency rate of copper smelting business profitability increased significantly.

Benefiting from the increase in average copper price and the overall profitability of the industry, the cash flow from operating activities of copper enterprises improved significantly in the first three quarters of 2017. As the industry boom rebounded, copper enterprises to speed up capacity expansion, the overall debt burden rose slightly.

Affected by the tight supply and demand of copper mines and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, copper prices continued to rise in the first three quarters of 2017

Since 2017, the supply of copper has been limited due to factors such as the strike-stoppage of some overseas copper mines, the tougher environmental protection in China and the restriction on imports of scrap copper. In respect of copper demand, the global economy as a whole improved, the US dollar weakened, the Chinese economy maintained a high growth rate, and the downstream demand for infrastructure, electricity and home appliances boomed. The copper supply and demand as a whole tightened. The copper price continued its upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2016. As of the end of September 2017, the price of LME3 rose 18.32% at the beginning of the year to US $ 6,531 / tonne and the SHFE copper rose by 14.02% at Rmb51880 / tonne. In the first three quarters of 2017, the average copper price of LME copper and SHFE was 5,947.31 US dollars / tonne and 47,690.95 yuan / ton respectively, up 25.89% and 30.27% respectively over the same period of 2016, an obvious increase.

Melamine

Germany Lansen want to buy AkzoNobel’s $ 10 billion specialty chemicals business

Bloomberg quoted anonymous sources saying Germany’s Lanxess has teamed up with private-equity firm Apollo Global Management to bid for AkzoNobel’s $ 10 billion specialty chemicals business.

Reported that Germany’s LANXESS competed with teams including CVC Capital Partners, KKR, Advent International and Bain Capital; in addition, Carlyle Group and Blackstone Group will conduct Bid separately.

Traders report that at the EGM held on November 30 this year, Akzo Nobel shareholders approved the separation of their specialty chemicals business as part of their strategy to create a focused and efficient business: paints and coatings Business and Specialty Chemicals Business.

Data show that LANXESS is a leading global supplier of specialty chemicals, core business development, production and marketing of chemical intermediates, additives, specialty chemicals and plastics. With sales of 7.7 billion euros in 2016, there are approximately 19,200 employees worldwide and 74 manufacturing locations in 25 countries.

Benzalkonium chloride

Ineos will build the “largest” butane tank in Europe

The Ineos group will build “the largest butane tank in Europe” in the Belgian port city of Antwerp.

The company announced on December 9 that it has signed an agreement with OTAGT, an oil company, to build 135,000 cubic meters of fully-cold storage and is expected to start production in 2019.

Ineos said the fully-cooled container will allow it to import butane from VLGC operators in the United States and around the world. This is a raw material for the production of butadiene.

The company will supply “competitive raw materials” to its factories in Cologne, Germany, as well as the opportunity to trade butane in Europe.

OTAGT, located on the left bank of the Sheffield River, is one of the largest independent terminals in northwestern Europe for storing, producing and distributing liquefied petroleum gas and petrochemical gases.

The project is part of Ineos investment in a resilient supply chain for European plants.

Sodium Molybdate

Chile copper production in the first 10 months fell 2.1%

According to the Bnamericas website, the latest monthly report by the Chilean National Copper Commission (COCHILCO) shows that the country’s copper production was 510,400 tonnes in October, up 15.1% per cent year-on-year, the highest rate since December 2016.

 

Compared with 476,500 tonnes in October, copper production increased by 7.1%. In the first 10 months, Chilean copper production was 4.47 million tonnes, down 2.1% per cent from a year earlier.

 

BHP’s Escandidas (Escondida) copper mine fell 13.2% per cent from a year earlier to 712,300 tonnes, after a 44-day strike by workers.

 

Chile’s National Copper Company (CODELCO) produced 1.5 million tonnes in the first 10 months, down 1.6% year-on-year. The production of Chukikhamatta (Chuquicamata)-Radomirotomic (Radomiro Tomic)-Harbin (Ministro Hales) is 686,100 tonnes, down 4.4% from a year earlier. The production of Teniente copper mine was 386,800 tonnes, down 1.9% from a year earlier. BHP’s smallest copper mine, El Salvador (Salvador), produced 50,000 tonnes, up 3.1% per cent from a year earlier.

 

The first 10 months of Codelco’s copper mine were 182,500 tonnes, up 15.4% from a year earlier, while Gabriele Mistral (Gabriela Mistral) Copper production was 102,600 tonnes, down 0.8%.

 

Chile’s second-largest copper mine, the Anglo-American group and Glencore’s joint-venture Coyavasi (COLLAHUASI) copper mine production of 427,600 tons, year-on-year growth of 1.2%. The production of Los Pelambresse (Los pelambres) copper mine, a Antofagasta mining company (Antofagasta Minerals), was 291,300 tonnes, down 3.6%. The production of Gadelaria (Candelaria) copper mine in Lending Mining Co. (Lundin Mining) was 128,100 tonnes, increasing by 22.7%.

 

Anglo-American group in Chile’s southern Company production of 289,600 tons, a year-on-year decline of 2.4%. Antofagasta and Barclays Gold’s joint venture Zardiva (Zaldivar) copper mine produced 86,700 tonnes, up 2.2%.

 

Freeport McMoRan (Freeport-mcmoran) holds a 51% stake, and Codelco’s 49%-owned Abra copper mine produces 64,500 tonnes, down 24.2% per cent year-on-year. BHP Billiton’s Spencer (Spence) copper mine produced 162,300 tonnes, up 20.5%, and Cerroco Rolado (Cerro Colorado) copper mine produced 53,900 tonnes, down 18.3%.

 

Kevlada Branca (Quebrada Blanca), a Teck resource company, produced 19,200 tonnes of copper ore, down 33.8%. Glencore’s Lomas Bayas (Lomas Bayas) copper mine produced 67,000 tonnes and grew by 1.4%.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

In the first 10 months of this year, the global supply of primary aluminum shortages of 1.414 million tons

During the January-October period of this year, the global shortage in primary aluminum market was 1.434 million tons, with a deficit of 0.770 million tons for the full year of 2016. In the first 10 months of this year, the demand for primary aluminum was 50.22 million tons, an increase of 1.713 million tons over the same period of previous year. January-October primary aluminum production increased 947,000 tons. The total reportable inventories decreased by 30,000 tons, as of the end of October to 2,249,000 tons, equivalent to 14 days of demand, as of the end of 2016 to 2,761,000 tons. As of the end of October, the total stocks held by the four major exchanges in London, Shanghai, the United States and Tokyo were 1.488 million tons, a decrease of 477,000 tons from the level at the end of last year. Overall, global production in the first 10 months of the year increased by 2% year-on-year. China’s production is estimated at 27.23 million tonnes, which represents 56% of global production. Apparent demand in China increased by 4% over the same period of last year. China exported 303,000 tonnes of net exports in the first ten months of October. Net unlisted aluminum exports in 2015 amounted to 255,000 tonnes. In the first 10 months of this year, China’s net export of semi-finished aluminum products was 3.194 million tons, up from 3.882 million tons in the same period of last year. Aluminum output in 28 EU countries remained flat year-on-year, while North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) output fell 2.1% YoY. Demand from the EU-28 increased by 113,000 tons year-on-year. January-October global demand rose 3.5%. In October 2017, the global production of primary aluminum was 4,763,500 tons, with a consumption of 4,799,100 tons.

2018 Aluminum Aspect: The first quarter will continue the tight supply pattern

2017 Aluminum Market Trend Review

 

At the beginning of 2017, Shanghai and aluminum ended the end of the 2016 ups and downs began to rise steadily. Supply side structural reform in the non-ferrous industry, especially electrolytic aluminum industry began to root, but downstream demand is weak, the aluminum price has brought 6 months of horizontal plate. In the meantime, inventories have been accumulating.

 

2017, the downstream demand for aluminum is not very bright. The housing boom and tepid car manufacturing have failed to bring large increases in demand for aluminium. Supply-side structural reforms have begun to “slim” the electrolytic aluminum industry, which has long been surplus. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei and other provinces began to eliminate, shut down the tide of backward production capacity, the disk is therefore subject to a long fund of extra attention. Only half a month in August, the panel has soared nearly 1800 yuan, contracted nearly half of the year’s gains.

 

After this, the beginning of the accumulation of high inventory began to be used for the panel, in the slow delivery and inventory growth has been creating new highs under pressure, the disk surface again began to collate. The trend of the year-round Shanghai aluminum is like a two-level step, slow and determined to continue the 2016-year bull market.

 

As in the case of Shanghai and aluminum, in 2017, the aluminum also maintained a year-round upward trend of turbulence, and slightly larger, especially since September, the trend is stronger than the continued weakness of Shanghai and aluminum. In addition to the dollar index, which has been on the rise since September, the demand for both inventory and downstream is much smaller than the internal pressure. Therefore, the pace of the continued strength of the plate will be a lot firmer.

 

Present situation and trend of raw aluminum supply end in China

 

The original aluminum industry chain from the upstream view is not long, from the mining of bauxite to the smelting of alumina, and finally to the production of electrolytic aluminum, these three important links constitute the original aluminum upstream industry chain. From the reserves of bauxite, although China’s bauxite reserves are not low, but bad taste, so still perennial dependence on imports. In addition, the supply side structural reform from last year to reduce production capacity, the overall original aluminum upstream industrial chain has formed a greater repression.

 

Bauxite imports continue to increase

 

According to the latest customs data, August 2017 China’s bauxite imports of about 6.53 million tons, the chain Rose 6.3%. 1 ~ August, imports amounted to about 44.6 million tons, a significant increase of 34.4%.

 

In August, Guinea remained China’s largest source of bauxite, supplying about 2.78 million tonnes, a small 2.3% increase in the chain. The second is Australia, the supply of about 2.31 million tons, the chain increased by 17.2%. From 1 to August, the supply of bauxite in Guinea and Australia, respectively, was about 17.7 million tonnes and 16 million tonnes, up 175.6% and 14.6% from a year earlier.

 

In the third quarter, Guinea’s bauxite supply was below 3 million tonnes per month, affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Starting in October, the monthly supply is expected to recover to 3 million mesh million tons. Due to shortages of bauxite in Henan and Shanxi, local alumina plants began to consider the use of a water bauxite imported from Australia.

 

In August, Malaysia exported to China about 550,000 tons of bauxite, the chain fell 15.6%, the Brazilian bauxite supply of about 527,000 tons, the chain increased significantly 96.1%. The month, affected by the rainy season, India exports only about 55,000 tons of bauxite to China, a sharp 65.8% reduction in the chain. India’s exports of bauxite are expected to resume in October, when the rainy season has gradually ended. At the beginning of August, Kuantan, Malaysia, halted bauxite exports and was expected to resume in mid-October. Affected by the drought and water shortage in Brazil, the local bauxite mine was blocked by the end of September, and the annual production of the Four seasons could be significantly reduced and affected exports. It is reported that the local large-scale mining main MRN this year, bauxite production is expected to reduce about 2 million tons, to 15 million tons.

 

7 ~ August, Indonesia total exports three ships to China bauxite, about 150,000 tons. By the end of September, a total of four local miners had obtained export quotas amounting to about 10 million tonnes. The supply of bauxite in Indonesia will continue to recover in the next few months.

 

In the year to come, not only the import of bauxite has been rising, but also the price of bauxite is rising, which indicates that upstream demand stimulation from downstream metal-aluminum prices is continuing to work. In the next 2018 years, with a modest increase in downstream demand, the amount of bauxite imports is expected to be slightly upward.

 

Continuous strength of alumina to bring cost support to original aluminum

 

The latest data show that September, the national alumina production of 6.0493 million tons, the month of the year-on-year growth of 9.5%; January-September, the national alumina production cumulative 54.8609 million tons, cumulative year-on-year growth of 16.6%. China’s total alumina imports were 275385 tonnes in September, up 93% from a year earlier. China’s total alumina imports were 2.23 million tonnes in January-September, up 2.96% from a year earlier. In addition to Australia, the main sources of Chinese alumina imports include Indonesia, Vietnam, France, India, Japan and Germany.

 

From the domestic production of alumina and the growth of import volume, it can be seen that the main increase comes from domestic alumina production. And the most important reason is 2016 years since the price of alumina continued to rise, by the end of October, the market mainstream price of 3590 yuan ~3850 yuan/ton, monthly average price rose 185 yuan/ton, the rise of 5.23%. At the same time, Chinalco’s listing price rose to 3690 yuan ~3850 yuan/ton, the increase of 6.5%. Domestic alumina prices continue to rise, but the gains have narrowed significantly. Throughout the year, the price fluctuation shows the trend of electrolytic aluminum cost-raising, the next 2018 years, Alumina still has the upside space, but will slow the rally.

 

The import price difference of raw aluminum expands to boost the annual import

 

In 2017, with the continued strength of aluminum prices, the original aluminum imports have been a certain degree of boost, compared with the 2016-year slump shows a significant increase in the situation. January-September, China’s cumulative imports of aluminum 97484 tons, the year-on-year rise of 27.78% in 2016. From the year-round fluctuations, the second half of the growth is more obvious, and the price difference between the internal and external expansion of China’s aluminum and aluminum imports also increased, but with the import spot spreads continued to shrink in recent months, four quarters of the import volume is not optimistic.

 

Raw aluminum production continued to shrink in the second half

 

According to the latest figures, China’s original aluminum production in October was 2.55 million tonnes, down 7.5% per cent from a year earlier, and in January-October, China’s original aluminium production totaled 21.727 million tonnes, up 1.5% from the same period last month. From the year-round data, the output of the second half is significantly reduced, due to the supply-side structural reform in the electrolytic aluminum industry caused by the landing of a large number of capacity shutdown. Aluminum alloy production, in addition to the June data show a sharp rise, the year-round trend is more stable, which also shows that this year the real estate industry growth slowed down, the original aluminum downstream demand is more insipid. In the long run, with the development of the economy, the raw aluminum demand will remain steady growth, but the lack of bright spot in the short term makes the demand for future growth is not optimistic.

 

The latest data show that as of the end of October, China’s aluminum smelting enterprises built capacity of 45.777 million tons, operating capacity of 36.628 million tons, production capacity of 80.01%, compared with September down 0.18%. According to the provincial accounting capacity operation rate has fallen: Shanxi 1.63%, Henan 1.56%, Inner Mongolia 3.13%, Guangxi 3.74%, Shandong 0.08%; the accounting capacity of the increase in operating rate is: Guizhou 5.6%. Illegal electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been basically shut down, but the heating season limited to put on the agenda, Shanxi and Henan region first implementation, and compliance electrolytic aluminum new investment, electrolytic aluminum industry scale continues to expand.

 

From the perspective of the year, June is the watershed, the national electrolytic aluminum total output can remain stable throughout the year, in production capacity in June to reach the highest peak, after the beginning of continuous reduction, electrolytic aluminum start rate trend is the same trend. The new compliance capacity has been put into operation at the same time, a large number of outdated production capacity has been eliminated, the supply side structural reform in the non-ferrous industry rooted in the germination. Next year’s production capacity is expected to remain high, the shutdown, the elimination of backward production capacity will further deepen the work.

 

On the other hand, new capacity is expected to reach 3.81 million tonnes in 2017. In the four quarter, there are still more new production can be further put into production, incomplete statistics, four quarters of about 3.15 million tons of capacity will be in production, in 2018 there are plans to launch 2 million tons. Therefore, under the two-party game, the final winner will be the biggest uncertainty next year.

 

The global trend of raw aluminum inventories has been differentiated

 

In the 2017, the global aluminum stock appeared diametrically opposed to the trend. On the one hand, the stock continues to decline in the aluminum, on the other hand, Shanghai aluminum inventory constantly create new highs.

 

This also shows that from a global point of view, the aluminum market has a small supply gap, but at home is still in surplus situation. Especially with the increase of aluminum price and new production capacity, the production of aluminum has formed a booster.

 

From the historical data point of view, go to inventory time period is generally in April-July each year, in large-scale domestic to go to inventory before the start, the expected electrolytic aluminum production capacity shutdown, integration will continue to continue. On the other hand, the increase in the proportion of aluminum to reduce the flow of aluminum ingot to 40% of the annual output, so that the aluminum absolute inventory value changes in the futures of aluminum ingot price will be exacerbated.

 

Consumption situation and forecast of raw aluminum downstream in China

 

Real Estate industry development slow-down

 

January-October, commercial housing sales area of about 1.303 billion square meters, year-on-year growth of 8.2%, growth rate than 1 ~ September fell 2.1%. Among them, the residential sales area increased by 5.6%, the office sales area increased 28.2%, commercial business premises sales area increased by 21.4%. Commercial housing sales 10.299 trillion yuan, growth 12.6%, the growth rate fell 2%. Among them, residential sales growth of 9.6%, office sales growth of 20.2%, commercial business sales increased by 27.9%.

 

In October 2017, the real estate development boom Index (the “National Housing Boom Index”) was 101.49, up 0.04 points higher than September. According to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the real estate development investment from the completion of the situation, 1 ~ October, the National Real estate development investment 9.0544 trillion yuan, year-on-year nominal growth of 7.8%, growth rate than 1 ~ September fell 0.3%. Among them, residential investment 6.1871 trillion yuan, growth 9.9%, growth rate fell 0.5%. Residential investment accounted for 68.3% of the real estate development investment.

 

The 2017 real estate industry slowed sharply in comparison with last year, but remained slightly higher than in 2015. Under the macro-policy to the real estate industry bubble regulation, the 2016 economic growth “main engine” flameout, began a long and gentle road of development. As a result, in 2017, the main demand for aluminum has lost its bright spot, the overall demand tepid. 2018, the real estate industry for the demand for aluminum will continue to be mainly stable growth, large-scale construction and development will be transformed into an orderly promotion of local transformation, the demand for aluminum materials to rely more on infrastructure.

 

Car manufacturing will continue to grow steadily

 

According to the latest statistics from the China Automobile Industry Association, car sales in October 2017 were slightly lower than in September. January-October, car production and sales to maintain a small growth, but year-on-year growth rate compared with the previous September slightly fell. October the month of the car production and sales respectively completed 2.604 million and 2.704 million units, production and sales decreased by 2.5% and 0.2%, respectively, year-on-year growth of 0.7% and 2%. January-October, the car production and sales completed 22.957 million vehicles and 22.927 million vehicles respectively, year-on-year growth of 4.3% and 4.1%, lower than the same period last year 9.5 and 9.7%. The cumulative growth rate of production and sales decreased by 0.5 and 0.3% respectively compared with January-September.

 

From the year-round situation, the overall production and sales volume is growing, but the growth rate fell sharply. And from the sub-item data, passenger car January-October output growth 2.3% year-on-year, commercial vehicle January-October output rose 16.9%. After the implementation of the new transport regulations last year, greatly improved the production and marketing of goods vehicles. Car sales will continue to grow steadily in the future, and new energy vehicles will be a bright spot for growth.

 

Appliance manufacturing becomes the new bright spot of aluminum demand

 

Since 2017, the home appliance industry has maintained a more stable growth, and into the September, the growth rate has accelerated. planing to seasonal factors, the downstream home appliances consumption capacity has always been increasing, which also provides a strong market potential for aluminum consumption. The next year, household appliances will continue to spend a certain amount of growth, but the magnitude will not be too fierce.

 

Demand for recycled aluminum will grow steadily

 

September 2017, China imports 182,700 tons of scrap aluminum, the import amount of 246.971 million U.S. dollars. January-September, the cumulative imports of scrap aluminum 1.5934 million tons, compared with the same period last year growth of 14.2%, the cumulative import amount increased by 25.6%. As the price of raw aluminum has been rising this year, and its replacement relationship with the increasing demand for scrap aluminum, the price of natural also rose, is expected to follow the return of the original aluminum prices, the price of aluminum scrap next year will also slow the rally. Import volume steady growth, the growth rate slightly down.

 

Future outlook

 

2017 Shanghai aluminum compared to 2016 performance is more insipid, at the beginning of the transport problem eased after the panel rational fall back, and then as we expected last year, the same wide-spread shocks. In full swing to production capacity, real shutdown, so that electrolytic aluminum production has appeared inflection point. The second half of the declining output brought about by the rising price of aluminum, speculative funds at this time frenzied influx, the Shanghai aluminum pushed on the 17,000 yuan/ton. At this time, a large number of hedge funds also poured into the disk, Shanghai and aluminum began a few months of peak game.

 

2017, for the electrolytic aluminum industry is a love-hate interwoven year, production capacity has been removed 3 million tons, but the industry profit increased more than a few times. The inventory of aluminum ingots has also been hitting the highest point in history. In the face of the downstream demand is still no bright 2018, supply-side tightening will begin after the heating season to relax, and cost support will be the key to the strength of aluminum prices. In addition, the continued production of advanced production capacity will also usher in a cluster of return on investment, 2017 electrolytic aluminum supply will be a tight balance changes.

 

Overall, the first quarter of next year, will continue to supply a 2017-year pattern of tightening, and after the end of the heating season, especially the second half will usher in the gradual release of production capacity, superimposed downstream demand lack of bright spots, macroeconomic development, and the U.S. dollar big probability rise, and other unfavorable factors, the trend of Shanghai and aluminum will appear first after the suppression, the whole year wide shocks situation , the main operating range throughout the year is estimated at 12,800 ~1.68 million/ton.

Ammonium phosphate rise, is the trend

According to the business community’s large list of data, 55% powder one ammonium market to maintain a high degree of consolidation, because the upstream raw materials continue to rise, resulting in a volatile ammonium phosphate price, the domestic market average of 2150-2500 yuan/ton, up to 100-300 yuan/ton.

 

In the middle of October, the market price of ammonium phosphate is strong, mainly affected by the following factors: first, upstream raw material sulfur sudden rise, from the cost side to support the price of ammonium phosphate rose, since October, the price of ammonium phosphate from the beginning of October 1900 yuan/ton up to 2200 yuan/ton, the overall Secondly, the early environmental protection organizations, leading to the production of some enterprises to stop quality inspection, market supply pressure increased, the supply of a tight, most of the enterprise temporarily not the addition of a single. The new single transaction is basically in a stagnant state. In the short term, there will be a rise in market conditions.

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Saudi Arabia strives to move away from oil dependence, pushing $500 billion in new plans

According to CNBC, Saudi Arabia announced in Tuesday a $500 billion plan to build a commercial and industrial park linked to Jordan and Egypt. This is the biggest effort Saudi Arabia has made so far to wean itself off its dependence on oil exports.
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The Saudi crown Prince Mohammed-Ben Salman (Mohammedbinsalman) says the area of 26500 sq km (10,230 square miles), known as Neom, will focus on the development of energy and water, biotechnology, food, advanced manufacturing and entertainment industries.

 

For Saudi Arabia’s future investment plan, the crown prince says visionary people will see this opportunity.

 

“This place is not for traditional or traditional companies, it will be a place for dreamers in the world,” he said at a Tuesday conference: “It shows the strong political will and desire of the Saudis, and all the success factors have gathered in Saudi Arabia to do something big.” ”

 

Neom or will become a new investment growth point

 

Although the economy of Saudi Arabia is rich, it is difficult to overcome the problem of low oil prices. Prince Mohammed has launched a series of economic and social reforms, such as allowing women to drive and make the kingdom more modern.

 

Saudi officials are hoping to build a privatisation project to raise money to build the project, including the sale of a stake in Saudi Aramco, 5% of the oil giant, which will raise $300 billion.

 

Saudi Arabia is cutting red tape and eliminating investment barriers. In Sunday, Saudi Arabia announced it would give strategic foreign investors more than 10% of Saudi listed companies.

 

Neom may be the main focus of new investment. Muhammad said the Saudi government, Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) and local and international investors are expected to invest more than $500 billion in Saudi Arabia in the next few years.

 

PIF said the region is near the Red Sea and `aqaba G. Of, and is close to the Suez Canal’s maritime trade corridor, which serves as an entrance to the Kingdom of Salman Bridge and will connect Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

 

“Neom is one of the most prominent economic arteries in the world. Its strategic position will also facilitate the region’s rapid becoming a global hub for Asia, Europe and Africa. PIF added. Jordan and Egypt are close allies of Saudi Arabia and no comment has been made on the plan.

 

Saudi Arabia says it has contacted potential investors and will complete the first phase of the project in 2025. Prince Mohammed will appoint Siemens (AG) and Alcoa (Alcoainc.) Former CEO Kleinfeld (Klauskleinfeld) presided over the NEOM project.

 

Project completion faces challenges

 

Saudi Arabia will need enormous financial and technical resources to build on the scale of the project it envisages. Past experience has shown that this can be difficult.

 

Bureaucracy has hampered many Saudi development plans, and private investors have been wary of participating in national projects, partly because of limited legal circumstances.

 

The region will have its own tax and labour laws, as well as an autonomous judicial system. The region plans to rely solely on wind power and solar power, a goal that may be difficult to achieve in practice.
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But the creation of the project shows the ambition of Prince Mohammed to save the Saudi economy from the serious damage caused by low oil prices. PIF said Neom would expand the choice of local investment to reduce the outflow of money from Saudi Arabia.

 

Saudi Aramco or partly privatised and listed overseas

 

The main source of PIF’s future investment funds is a 5% per cent stake in Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil giant that the government plans to sell, which now has about $230 billion trillion in management assets. The company could help raise tens of billions of of dollars in funds.

 

PIF General Manager Yassir (Yasiral-rumayyan) said at the meeting that Saudi Arabia is still expected to release Saudi Aramco’s shares for the first time in 2018, but did not disclose which stock markets the company would list.

 

Aminnasser, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive, told reporters that Saudi Aramco could still trade in markets such as New York, London, Tokyo and Hong Kong in addition to Saudi Arabia, but still needed to make a final decision.

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BASF biological method of acrylamide production plant in Nanjing, China built

BASF’s first set of bio-process acrylamide (BIOACM) devices in Asia Pacific, efficient and environmentally friendly production

Bacillus thuringiensis

 

October 23, 2017, BASF in China’s Nanjing Chemical Industry Park, an industry-leading production plant of bio-process acrylamide.

 

By investing in this wholly-owned production facility, BASF will further improve the production capacity of high quality polyacrylamide to ensure a stable supply to customers in the region, especially in China. The device can produce more than 50,000 tonnes of acrylamide per year.

 

Acrylamide is used in the production of water-soluble flocculants, so that the improvement of wastewater treatment, papermaking, mineral processing and oil recovery is more efficient and more resource-saving. Located in the center of the Water Treatment and paper industry in the Asia-Pacific region, the commissioning of the new installation will further consolidate BASF’s dominance in the region and increase the cost competitiveness of the product supply to meet the growing demand of the high water industry.

 

“We are delighted to be with our customers and government representatives to celebrate the commissioning of the Nanjing BIOACM plant,” said Andreastuerk, senior vice president of the BASF paper and Water Treatment Chemicals business unit. This investment fully embodies BASF’s strategic commitment to the polyacrylamide industry, and we will continue to work to meet the growing business needs of China and the world’s high water industry. ”

 

Since 2014, BASF has started producing bio-Virginia State acrylamide in the United States, and in 2016 a new bio-method of acrylamide was put into operation in Bradford, UK. After the successful commissioning of the Nanjing Project, BASF has three of the most advanced production devices in the world’s major markets.
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“The completion of the BIOACM device is an important milestone in the history of the development of BASF’s Nanjing base, which lays a foundation for future expansion.” The new Polyacrylamide production line is under construction and is expected to be operational in 2018. By investing in the upstream and downstream production units, we have further consolidated BASF’s position as the preferred partner in papermaking and water treatment industry. ”

 

Compared with the traditional catalysis technology of high pressure and energy-consuming copper, the waste produced by enzymatic process is greatly reduced. The process can be carried out at room temperature and under normal atmospheric conditions, which will help conserve energy and improve environmental compatibility. At the same time, there are fewer byproducts.

 

“The Nanjing BIOACM device is built in strict accordance with BASF’s high standards of global security and environment,” said Mollison, global senior vice-president of BASF, who is responsible for operations and base management in Greater China. We provide special training to our employees and safety specialists to ensure that we meet the same safety standards as all other production facilities. ”

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