1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market continued to be stable in December, with relatively low prices. As of December 31st, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 medium viscosity injection grade was about 23087.50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

PA66 upstream. This month, the market of adipic acid continued to hold a stalemate, with little change in prices in most regions, and some of the prices rose. On the basic level, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder adipic acid to get out of the weak situation. The improvement of the cost side did not bring a rebound to the downstream adipic acid, but increased the dilemma of enterprise profit contraction. At present, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not improved. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated. The market has not reversed the upward momentum. The enterprise inventory and market inventory are still at a high level. This is the main reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, although pure benzene ended the downward trend of shocks, as of December 27, the rebound of this month was more than 8%, but the cost transmission effect was lagging behind, which did not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. On the contrary, with the price of pure benzene rising, the profits of adipic acid manufacturers were compressed, and at the same time, they were trapped in the weak demand, and the price did not Rising, this confirms the extremely weak situation of the market; this month, PA66 market is still dominated by horizontal consolidation. The spot market is still abundant, and the terminal market is still just in need of goods. There are few inquiries from downstream factories, and the atmosphere is quiet. The business is mainly wait-and-see, but the mentality hasn’t changed. Most orders are flexible.

Future forecast:

Business analysts think: December domestic PA66 market sideways consolidation. Weak upstream adipic acid demand continued. Although the decline narrowed, the trend remained stable and weak, with limited support for PA66 cost side. There is no improvement in the enthusiasm of downstream stock up, and the strategy of just need to take the goods as the main strategy. The market atmosphere is quiet, the industry’s wait-and-see mentality is heavy, and the operation is limited. It is expected that PA66 will continue to run horizontally in the near future.

1、 Price trend

After new year’s day, the decline of LNG continued. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on January 2 was 3716.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on January 3 was 3486.67 yuan / ton, down 6.19% in two days, up 35.03% compared with the same period last year. On January 3, the LNG commodity index was 85.94, down 5.67 points from yesterday, 58.87% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 24.82% higher than 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 3, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 3490 yuan / ton, and that of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3470 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3650 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is 2600 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3600 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd It’s 3500 yuan / ton. Liquid prices rise and fall with each other. Liquid prices rise and fall with each other across the country, and the overall decline.

Market analysis: this year’s new year’s Day holiday time is only one day, the time is short, the demand has not improved. After the festival, the trend of LNG is still weak. On December 27, PetroChina auctioned, the price of raw materials decreased, and the pressure of manufacturers reduced, but the market was abundant in supply, and the inventory was in a high position, so the manufacturers continued to reduce prices and make shipments. Recently, there are rain, snow and heavy fog in many places in the north, LNG shipment is blocked, tank transportation is not smooth, and air pollution emergency response has been issued in many places, environmental protection “shutdown order” has affected the gas consumption of LNG industry in some areas, and there is no large-scale replenishment demand, pipeline gas is relatively abundant, and LNG price is under pressure. Earlier this year’s new year, the industrial gas consumption will be reduced, the overall market trading is not prosperous, and under the guidance of downstream demand, the trading center will start to move down, and the market is weak and hard to change.

It is reported that from January to November 2019, the national LNG production was monitored and statistics show that: in November 2019, the national LNG production was 1.015 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; in January to November 2019, the national LNG production was 10.573 million tons, a cumulative increase of 15.1%.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on January 2, 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (1.45%), methanol (1.09%) and MTBE (0.62%). There are 6 commodities falling on a month on month basis, with Brent crude oil (- 3.57%), diesel oil (- 1.26%) and WTI crude oil (- 1.01%) as the top three products. The average price of this day was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast

According to liquefied natural gas analyst of business association, there is no big gap in the market in the warm winter of this year, and there is abundant supply. Near the end of this year, the market demand is reduced, some enterprises have been repaired, and the imbalance between supply and demand is further intensified. At present, the environmental protection is becoming increasingly strict, the serious problem of heavily polluted natural gas is severe, and the downstream demand is not boosted, so it is expected that liquefied natural gas will continue to bear pressure in the future Downward interest shipment.

1、 Price trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market rose first and then fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market at the beginning of the month was 12750 yuan / ton, and the price of the aggregate MDI at the end of the month was 12925 yuan / ton, up 1.37% in the month, 11.66% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in December, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose first, then fell, and finally became stronger. At the beginning of the month, influenced by the listing prices of major manufacturers, the supply also continued to be limited, the price of the goods holders was on the high side, the market price continued to rise slightly, and the upward trend lasted for about 10 days. After all, the demand side was not supported enough, the downstream high price was in conflict, and the transaction atmosphere turned weak. After the middle of the month, the market began to move sideways. In addition, due to the low quotation of imported Japanese and Korean futures, and the impact of the middleman’s urgent shipment, the market price began to decline. However, under the limited supply of the supplier, the quotation of the first-class traders in the field is still firm, and they are reluctant to sell and ship. After the second ten days of the month, the main factories successively announced the listing prices in January 2020, and the listing prices of the main factories were significantly reduced. However, the supply volume continued to discount on the basis of the supply in December, and the market price turned from a negative decline to a slight upward trend. However, the middlemen and the downstream are now slightly in conflict with the high prices, and the intention to store goods is not great. However, due to the limited supply of goods, the first-class agent is reluctant to sell at a high price. It is difficult for the actual negotiated transaction price to go up substantially.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene: in the month, affected by the weak profit of Aromatics Complex, some PX plants in China shut down production and the by-product pure benzene production decreased. Due to the same reason, the load of PX in South Korea decreased and the production of pure benzene decreased, resulting in the low export volume to China. East China’s port inventory further fell to around 78000 tons. As a result, the domestic spot price was tight in the month, and the market price continued to rise from 5450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 6000 yuan / ton. In the last ten days of last month, due to the lower than expected short covering and the impact of arrival of the port, the market price fell. By 31, the main negotiation in East China was 5750-5820 yuan / ton.

Aniline: in terms of aniline, in the first ten days of the month, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the inventory pressure of aniline enterprises in North China is large, the downstream is mainly waiting for purchasing on demand, with a strong attitude of waiting to fall, and the factory’s delivery price is falling. In mid month, aniline rebounded and fell. With the wide rise of raw material pure benzene and the loss of aniline profit, the factory has no intention of price reduction. The downstream actively inquires and buys on the cheap, which makes the inventory of aniline factory release rapidly and the price rebound. However, the downstream demand follow-up was insufficient, the aniline factory inventory was high, and the market fell. In the last ten days of the month, some enterprises in the lower reaches of Henan Province shut down more and demand is poor. However, the profit of aniline plant continues to lose, the load is not high, and the output is low, so the price has a smooth transition. But new year’s Day is approaching, the market is light, the factory inventory is increasing, and the price is slightly weakening.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in December 2019, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there were 8 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities were propane (27.23%), crude benzene (11.66%) and pure benzene (10.94%). There are a total of 50 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, and 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the top 3 falls are sulfur (-17.03%), lithium hydroxide (-13.50%) and hydrochloric acid (-12.64%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.87%.

3、 Future forecast

Business club point of view: Kesi Chuang factory announced the price after the festival, it is understood that it should also cooperate with the trend of other factories. The on-site agents offer high prices, the delivery is cautious, and the sporadic small orders are concluded. Middlemen and the downstream are also rational about the current market price, and there is no hoarding behavior. At present, the price has an upward trend, the force of the supplier is large, and the demand side is difficult to support. MDI analysts predict that the domestic MDI market is difficult to fall in price in short term, but the actual negotiated transaction price is also difficult to rise significantly.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

In the first three quarters, the price of domestic asphalt market fluctuated repeatedly, and the price of asphalt market fluctuated upward, from 3434 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 3640 yuan / ton at the end of September. First of all, in 2019, the international crude oil market surged, the Sino US trade relations were uncertain, the crude oil market “black swan” events occurred frequently, OPEC production reduction twists and turns, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was pending, many factors affected the oil market, the oil price also showed UPS and downs, twists and turns, the domestic asphalt market is also cyclical, ups and downs. Secondly, in January and February, when the road construction stagnated, there was an increase in the demand for asphalt storage in winter; in April and may, when the road engineering was centralized and launched, there was a sharp drop in the price of crude oil, which restricted the upward trend of asphalt; in July and August, when the crude oil stabilized and the market sentiment began to improve, the demand of asphalt market was affected by rainfall in many places. On the whole, the first three quarters of the asphalt market mixed with many empty news, and the asphalt market fluctuated upward, but basically in line with the upward trend of the market price focus in the peak season.

In the fourth quarter, the domestic asphalt market price showed a unilateral downward trend, from 3640 yuan / ton to 3384 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with a drop of 7.05%. In terms of international crude oil, Saudi Arabia continued to release the signal of production reduction, and superimposed the phased results of Sino US trade negotiations. The future trade environment is expected to be improved, and oil prices continue to rise moderately. However, the overall demand of asphalt market shows a gradual downward trend, and the domestic spot price of asphalt began to turn downward in October, and low-cost goods from Northeast China and Shandong successively poured into East China, further impacting the spot price of East China market. Until the end of November, the overall performance was that traders expected to be pessimistic, mainly in wait-and-see mood, only purchasing on demand, and the pressure gradually emerged. Although the crude oil at the cost end stabilized again in December, the profit of coking material has been better than that of asphalt, and the traders have no intention of replenishing the storage, and the winter storage season is far away. Asphalt bottoming stabilized in December.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that the price trend of the asphalt Market in 2019 is generally in line with the trend of the asphalt lean season. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the total planned investment of the national highway is 9.7 trillion, while from January 2016 to October 2019, the total planned investment of the national highway is 7.8 trillion, accounting for 80% of the plan, and 20% of the plan still needs to be completed. The uncertainty of asphalt price in 2020 still comes from the relationship between crude oil price and asphalt supply and demand. In 2019, the international oil price is expected to increase by a limited margin. Therefore, it is predicted that the price focus of asphalt market will be limited in 2020.

On January 1, the rare earth index was 341, which was flat with yesterday, 65.90% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 25.83% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 367000 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 280000 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide was 1750000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 5000 yuan / ton to 337500 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 291000 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 359000 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.72 million yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market is stable, the domestic supply policy of heavy and rare earth market, and the export of heavy and rare earth has improved. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, the domestic supply has decreased, and the domestic price trend of heavy and rare earth remains high. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has not changed much in the near future, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price is slightly lower. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth market remained high.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, coupled with favorable domestic support for the export of rare earth industry, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high, while the price of light rare earth will mainly fluctuate.

Commodity index: on December 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.81% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 31, 2019, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on December 1, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton, slightly increased by 0.1% this month.

Industry chain: upstream: at the beginning of December, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market fluctuated and increased, with the quotation of 10500 yuan / ton on the first day and 12000 yuan / ton on the fourth day; the price has been reduced by 700 yuan / ton since the middle of the year; 500 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton on the ninth day, 150 yuan / ton to 11350 yuan / ton on the 16th day, and 50 yuan / ton to 11300 yuan / ton on the 20th day, near the end of the month and 30 days The price of acrylonitrile in the second half of the year ended with 11200 yuan / ton. From the market trend of the second half of the year, the high price appeared in the late September, and the price began to be reduced in a step-by-step manner in October. In general, the price was reduced by 2000-3000 yuan / ton in six months, with a volatility of about 15%. This month, the market volatility was first up and then down. Downstream: in winter, the construction of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a great impact. At present, it has entered the coldest three or nine days of the year. The Spring Festival is not far away, and the construction will usher in the most slack season. Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice from January 19 to January 1, 2020, all of which were shut down, and the manufacturer had relatively sufficient stock. However, due to the shutdown of vehicles under the fifth five year plan, the freight cost increased, and the market price of polyacrylamide of the manufacturer increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the construction volume is getting less and less from the current Spring Festival holiday, and the downstream procurement is about to be greatly reduced. The price reduction of acrylonitrile is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production costs. The period of production suspension of Gongyi factory in Henan Province expires immediately, and the supply of goods is not in shortage. After new year’s day, the production will continue to increase, and the transportation cost will not be reduced. To sum up, the future market price of polyacrylamide should be stable, not excluding the possibility of weakness, and pay attention to the start-up and inventory of manufacturers after new year’s day.

Commodity index: on December 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 101.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.61% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.89% from 100.90, the lowest point on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 31, 2019, the mainstream market price of polyaluminium chloride (fixed, content ≥ 28%) was about 1833.33 yuan / ton. On December 1, the mainstream market price was 1950 yuan / ton, and the overall price of this month was reduced by 3.42%.

Price situation: the mainstream monitoring manufacturers of the business association, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market continued to be lowered in December. In the second half of 2019, after experiencing the high price caused by the shutdown from August to October, the price of polyaluminium chloride continued to decline after returning to 1950 yuan / ton on July 1; in six months, the lowest price was 1833.33 yuan / ton on the second half of December, and the highest price was 2016.67 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com) on the commodity, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is mainly concentrated in: the quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) with tax is about 1800-2200 yuan / ton, the quotation of liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) with tax is about 380-450 yuan / ton, and the freight of some manufacturers in Henan is increased this month, so the quotation is increased by 50 yuan / ton Right, but some traders in North China have reduced their quotation by 200 yuan / ton due to the lower procurement cost in the early stage.

Industrial chain: in the six months from July to December, when the starting rate of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers is high, the production is normal, the quantity of goods is sufficient and the demand growth is stable in July, the supply is surplus and the price is down; since the middle of August, due to the influence of environmental protection and other factors, the starting of manufacturers is limited, the supply of goods is reduced and the price is up, which continues to the late September. After the National Day in October, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers returned to normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable. In general, in addition to the sharp rise of polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride in the fourth quarter dropped slightly; the trend in November was similar to the “Z” shape of the extended version; the price in December fell to 1833.33 yuan / ton steadily. Among the upstream raw materials, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business association rose sharply in 2019, while the price in December was reduced by about 40 yuan / ton, 290 yuan / ton on December 1, 253 yuan / ton on December 31, down 12.64%. Downstream, in the winter construction off-season, the purchase volume is sharply reduced, the quantity of polyaluminium chloride is sufficient, the cost is reduced, and the supporting effect on the price of polyaluminium chloride is weakened.

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business agency shows that the lower upstream raw material price is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production costs. After the new year’s day in 2020, the Gongyi manufacturer in Henan Province will restart, the supply of goods will increase, and the supply of goods will be sufficient, while the winter construction determines the reduction of the downstream procurement. To sum up, polyaluminium chloride market shock weak trend, pay attention to the start-up and inventory situation of manufacturers in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of sulfur continued to decline in 2019. At the beginning of the year, the average ex factory price of sulfur in East China was 1360 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average ex factory price was 503.33 yuan / ton, a 62.99% drop in the year. At the end of the year, the price was also the lowest price in 2019, and the highest price in the year was 1433.33 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In the first stage, from the beginning of the year to the beginning of March, affected by the long Spring Festival holiday of traditional festivals and the overall downturn of downstream demand, the delivery of production enterprises all over the country presents different pressures. In the downstream, due to the poor delivery of compound fertilizer enterprises and the reduction of the operating rate, the monoammonium market in the ammonium phosphate Market is in weak operation as a whole, while the new export orders of diammonium enterprises are in slow progress, and they are stuck in finishing operation, which has an impact on the sulfur market Demand is light.

In the second stage, from the middle of March to may, monoammonium in the market of ammonium phosphate rose slightly, and the overall market of diammonium was stable. The buying atmosphere in the port market has recovered. The firmness of the external price makes the market more stable. The overall trend of the market is upward, and the domestic sulfur market as a whole presents a shock upward trend. However, in May, downstream demand declined, market support was limited, and the market began to fluctuate.

In the third stage, from June to early October, the price of sulphuric acid continued to decline. Strong supporting factors are hard to find, domestic demand is light and continuous, and merchants’ negative wait-and-see mood, after a long period of stalemate and consolidation, the domestic sulfone Market can only move downward. The main reasons for the decline of the market are the decline of the external market price, the slow consumption of the port inventory, and the difficulty in boosting the downstream demand.

In the fourth stage, from the beginning of October to the end of the year, the general trend of domestic resources has declined, and the downstream demand in various regions has been weak to varying degrees. The domestic market has been impacted by port prices, and the pricing has been declining, and the downstream performance is mainly on demand. The port inventory is still high and low consumption, and there is no change. The market atmosphere is low, and the market continues to decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business association, the current situation of high stock in Hong Kong has not changed, the downstream demand performance is weak, the factory purchases on demand and small orders, and there is no substantive good guidance on supply and demand. In addition, the internal and external support is weak, and most of the enterprises hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the sulfur market will be reorganized and operated in the later stage, depending on the plant conditions in the later stage.

Monday (December 30) in Asia, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, maintaining a three-and-a-half-month high as a whole. Oil prices closed positive for four weeks, the longest consecutive increase since April, due to the positive impact of the US EIA crude oil inventory falling to the lowest level in two months, the stock market rising, and OPEC + deepening production reduction.

However, due to weak production reduction alliance and low global crude oil demand, the supply and demand of oil prices are still unbalanced in 2020, which will be reflected in the pattern of supply exceeding demand, which foreshadows the medium-term downward trend of oil prices.

Russia said that OPEC + crude oil production reduction has stabilized the global oil market, but will not last forever, because after March 2020, the uncertainty faced by the future of the production reduction agreement continues.

Russian energy minister Novak said in an interview, “the reduction of crude oil production cannot be permanent, and we will gradually need to decide to withdraw from the agreement. Russia needs to defend its market share and let its oil companies develop new projects. ”

Novak did not specify when Russia might decide to withdraw from the deal, but said it expected to discuss it with OPEC + colleagues in 2020, with global oil demand surging as early as next summer.

“In fact, OPEC has cut large-scale oil supply for quite a long time, and the duration of its action and the scale of production reduction are mostly unusual,” said Martijn rats, commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley. There is still a need for longer and larger cuts, reflecting the potential weakness of market fundamentals. ”

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the overall ABS market fell in 2019, and the spot price in the domestic market shrank to a certain extent. As of December 30, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 22.76% from the beginning of the year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in the upstream of PA6, in the first half of 2019, the domestic caprolactam market basically showed an inverted V-shaped trend, with a basic balance between supply and demand in the market and a stable market price. After the first quarter of the festival, due to the centralized commencement of downstream chip manufacturers, insufficient stock of raw materials before the festival, relatively high purchasing atmosphere, and high overall starting load, the market price continued to rise. At the end of March, some caprolactam units were shut down for maintenance, the supply of goods was slightly tight, and the market maintained a rising trend. At the beginning of the second quarter, the early trend continued, but as the downstream demand gradually weakened, the overall supply and demand returned to stability again, the market price peaked, and the industry returned to wait and see. By May and June, affected by the macro environment, the demand in the terminal market remained light. Although the starting load of upstream and downstream units in the site fell to the new low in recent years, the sluggish demand in the terminal market made the market price of caprolactam continue to fall. In the third quarter, caprolactam rose as a whole due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials. The supply of spot goods was tight, which promoted the increase of caprolactam market, and then entered the downturn in the fourth quarter. In October, the price of pure benzene began to fall, the supply of domestic products increased, and the bearish sentiment increased. Caprolactam prices began to decline in October. The downstream procurement is cautious, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds the demand.

Products: PA6 market relatively stable into the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year. After the festival, the cost side strengthened and the price recovered slightly. At the end of the first quarter, some large-scale factories reported an increase in price, and the manufacturer’s parking maintenance plan increased. On the other hand, the demand in the downstream is weak and the market is in a stalemate. By April, the demand was still not improved, but the price trend of upstream caprolactam liquid continued to strengthen, and the supply was further tight. Raw materials are lifted to PA6 disk to offset the shortage of downstream procurement. By may, the start-up rate of upstream caprolactam had increased, the inventory of manufacturers was high, and the price began to decline. PA6 lost the strong support of cost side, the confidence of domestic PA6 industry was impacted, and the quotation of manufacturers was mostly lowered. PA6 followed the rise and fall of caprolactam in July and August. After entering the “golden nine silver ten” traditional peak season, the demand of downstream industries such as home appliances has increased, which has injected the long lost good from itself into PA6 and stepped out of a wave of positive rising stage market. However, the supply of PA6 in China tends to expand, and the demand is weak for half a year, which leads to the closure of traditional peak season grass. The response of the “silver ten” peak season is limited. The manufacturers failed in trying to hold up their prices, and the prices were weak. At the end of the year, it entered the market of looking up and down. At present, PA6 keeps falling with raw materials. Looking at the market of PA6 in 2019pa6, it seems that the cloudy and sunny days of caprolactam have more reference significance. The rise and fall of PA6 spot price in the whole year is largely consistent with the upstream price, but this also reflects the fact that PA6 market is less favorable from the product itself. The growth of demand has lagged behind, the increase of domestic production capacity, PA6 has also followed other rubber and plastic brother industries into the queue of supply and demand imbalance.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in 2019, PA6 market volatility fell. The annual trend of upstream caprolactam is also not ideal, PA6 market is greatly affected by the fluctuation of upstream caprolactam. However, PA6′s own growth momentum is insufficient, and the growth of downstream demand does not match the increase of production capacity. The mentality of the industry is bearish and the operation is cautious. The downstream replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand throughout the year, and the delivery and investment are average. PA6 market in the whole year has great upward resistance, and it is expected that it will not improve in the short term.